DrumBeat: December 29, 2007


Peak Oil And Dunbar's Number

Within modern capitalism there is no solution to the problem of oil depletion. Oil energy cannot be replaced with the equivalent amount of "alternative" energy in the required time, so the consequences of oil depletion will be disastrous. Those disastrous consequences are beyond the range of the normal or acceptable issues of political debate. No political contender can win votes by saying that the world is coming to an end. The "end" may be real, but there is no political mechanism to deal with it in the over-crowded and overly complex modern state.

Bin Laden says U.S. seeks to exploit Iraqi oil

Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden accused Washington of plotting to take control of Iraq's oil and urged Iraqis to reject efforts to rebuild a U.S.-backed national unity government there.

... The Saudi-born militant said the envisaged Iraqi government was also meant to help Washington "fully dominate" the region with help from allies such as Saudi Arabia.

"The government of Riyadh is still playing its wicked roles," he said, describing Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah as the United States' "chief agent".


Shell plans to outsource 3,600 jobs

Royal Dutch Shell is to shed thousands of jobs as Europe's largest oil company joins rival BP in trying to cut costs and simplify its structure. Shell is looking to agree one of the largest ever outsourcing deals in the next couple of months, and plans to reorganise other departments, including finance operations.

The company has said previously that it wants to cut costs, but the scale of some of the proposed changes has surprised insiders and led to the leaking of information to an anti-Shell website by disillusioned staff. The biggest change will be in the information technology division, where around 3,600 staff may be affected by a plan to farm out operations to three companies.


Eni May Cancel 9% of Its Stock; Sees Kashagan Settlement Soon

Eni SpA, Italy's biggest oil company, may cancel 9 percent of its own stock and begin a new share buyback program, Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni said.

Scaroni also said Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev called a Jan. 11 meeting with executives of Eni and the heads of five other foreign oil companies, signaling a potential breakthrough in the dispute over development of the Kashagan oil field. Eni spokesman Gianni di Giovanni confirmed to Bloomberg News today the comments Scaroni made in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.


Iraq aims to boost Kirkuk oil sales

Iraq plans to boost sales of Kirkuk oil by at least 100,000 barrels per day starting in January and is offering incentives to win back and retain customers, an Iraqi official said on Friday.


Is The UK Set To Be The Saudi Arabia of Europe?

“Eliminating fossil fuels is scientifically urgent, economically inescapable and technically possible,” CAT Development Director Paul Allen said. “With its good match to the demand profile across the year, offshore wind could make Britain the Saudi Arabia of green electricity in a zero carbon Europe.”

The report states that a zero carbon Britain could “deliver a higher quality of life, along with a sense of collective purpose not felt in Britain for many decades.”


The trouble with shale gas: Huge reserves come with huge obstacles

According to Mr. Faraj, this country holds so much shale gas that it stretches the bounds of believability.

He has estimated that Canada's depths could contain as much as 15,000 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas -- a staggering number nearly triple the proven gas reserves for the entire world. But shale gas is anything but proven, and experience has shown that very little of the gas in place can actually be extracted.


$100 oil a near certainty, say analysts

Oil prices of near $100 per barrel caused alarm in consuming countries in 2007 and analysts forecast another tense crude market next year with triple-figure records a real prospect.

Despite a murky outlook for the world economy, crude prices are seen settling at elevated levels, spelling more pain for consumers and a steady flow of petrodollars for the world’s oil exporters.


Pakistan: Petrol, CNG stations owners observe complete strike

Owners of filling stations observed a complete strike in the provincial metropolis on Friday to condemn brutal killing of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Petrol pumps and CNG stations were giving a deserted look throughout the day. Covered with tents, these filling stations were not selling petrol, diesel, gas and other oil products. However, taking advantage of the situation, employees of some of the filling stations sold a litre plastic bottle of petrol for Rs 100. Private petrol shops also sold petrol at same rates.


Pakistan cities shut down after Bhutto death

Daily life for tens of millions of Pakistanis was on hold Saturday, with major cities virtually shut down as the nation mourned the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

On the second day of official mourning for the slain opposition leader, most people were unable to buy food or petrol, with all shops, fuel stations, banks and offices closed down.


Papua New Guinea trucking operators say fuel prices could put them out of business

The National Transport Association says if any operator is forced out it would greatly affect the freight of supplies into the Highlands and the national economy.

Association President, John Lacey, says there is already a big shortage of trucks operating between Lae and the Highlands and the country cannot afford to have more pulled off the road.


Kazakhstan Signals Possible Kashagan Breakthrough

The government of Kazakhstan has signaled what could be a breakthrough in its long-running standoff with foreign oil companies developing the massive Kashagan oil field in the northern Caspian Sea.


Karluk fuel pinch dire

Short was informed the village had been out of heating fuel for some time and had only two days worth of fuel left for the generator. Without fuel for the generator, the village would be without electricity.


Burning food charcoals witness

A man with no business experience envied his friend who bought hats for two dollars and sold them for four. The novice opened his own hat store but to gain market share sold his hats for $1.50.

His more experienced friend asked how he intended to stay in business, selling hats for less than they cost him.

"Volume," said the new businessman.

There are many reasons to abandon ethanol as a fuel source before that bad idea becomes a curse that even volume cannot redeem.


A Christmas Present - Something You Can Do For Your Kids

Christmas is for kids. Give your kids the present they really need this year: Promise them you will do whatever you can to help turn the corner on climate change. It's life and death for your kids, for your grandchildren. Promise them you will work hard so that they will have a safe future.


What control does Opec have now?

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) declared last month it had lost control of the world market, but energy experts say the group has wrested much of the control back since.

"Opec now has more control than it had a month ago. But it's not quite there yet," Ann-Louise Hittle, a Boston-based oil analyst with global consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie, told Gulf News.


Not so gushing for oil firms

The forecast of soaring crude oil prices could boost handsome returns for China's oil producers in 2008, despite concerns of higher resource taxes.

Still, the nation's refineries, represented by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, also known as Sinopec, may again suffer hefty losses in the oil processing business as state control of refined oil prices is not likely to be relaxed given the high and rising inflation rate.


The Gulf's Financial Tidal Wave

Gulf countries now hold more than $1.5 trillion in foreign assets. Fed by insatiable oil demand combined counterintuitively with record oil prices, their accounts are forecasted to swell to $2 trillion in 2009. What happens when the world's largest pool of investable capital links with the world's largest population and fastest-growing large economy? Nothing less than a tectonic shift in global power. All economic players, especially American and European companies, will need to adapt to the nexus of the Gulf and China.


Mankind is on the brink...but I'm optimistic

Whatever the true figure, almost all the biggest challenges in the world are directly connected to those astonishing projections of human growth. Nature is not mocked - and the symptoms of a dying world are there for all to see.

So we have the energy crisis as the world scrabbles for deposits of carbon; the disappearance of species as the rainforests are destroyed to grow food; the rise of Islamist militancy in parts of the world where the population of young men is growing far faster than jobs and resources; water wars; the coming pandemics. . . and of course, the lurches in temperature and wind speed as the planet hots up.


Joint venture to supply nitrogen to Mexico

Air Products said a joint venture company with its Grupo Infra partner will supply 90 MMscfd of nitrogen to Petroleos Mexicanos Exploracion y Produccion (PEP).

Nitrogen from the gas turbine and steam-driven facility is supplied for injection and enhanced oil and gas recovery from PEP's Jujo-Tecominoacan oil fields near Villahermosa in Tabasco, Mexico.


Demand rising for OSVs in Latin America

Offshore support vessel (OSV) owners active in the region continue to sing praises for Central and South America. With as many as 238 offshore support vessels, of 254 total in the region, on term charter, why wouldn't they be pleased?


We are what we eat. Or, the corn maze

Pay particular attention to talk about ethanol; the feel-good sound of the corn-based fuel as opposed to its hidden costs; the diversion of corn into subsidized fuel creating a shortage that already is driving up the prices of other food products for consumers and farmers -- especially those feeding corn to pigs and chickens. Pollan also points out ingesting corn really isn't good for cattle.

In "The Omnivore's Dilemma," he makes the point that the government's 51-cents-a-gallon subsidy for ethanol has only encouraged farmers to grow more and more corn for the sake of growing more corn -- all of it requiring more fuel and fertilizer.


Is the Hydrogen Age Just Around the Corner?

You may think hydrogen power is some futuristic fantasy, fit only for science-fiction writers. Or, at best, you might consider it a promising technology that won't be ready for prime time for another 40 to 50 years. If so, think again. In a special edition on "Best Inventions 2006," Time magazine praises the decision by Shanghai-based Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies "to design and market the H-racer, a 6-inch-long toy car that does what Detroit still can't. It runs on hydrogen extracted from plain tap water, using the solar-powered hydrogen station."

Hydrogen vehicles are not mere toys. More than 500 are on the road today.


Land for Biofuel

In a city of 100,000 people, at a population density of 5,000 people per square mile (what used to be a high density suburb, but what the smart growth people now call eggregious sprawl), the city itself would consume 20 square miles. The land necessary to provide the inhabitants with 100% of their automotive fuel would consume an additional 190 square miles, a ratio of 9.5 to 1.0.


January 1st 2008: The Day Brazil Goes Biodiesel

The scene of petroleum gushing out of an accidental hole in arid land, as shown in Hollywood movies illustrating the time when the fossil fuel was discovered in United States ground, is not part of the Brazilian scenario. In Brazil, petroleum lies offshore.

However, cities such as Caarapó, in the midwestern Brazilian state of Mato Grosso Sul, and Alto Araguaia, in the state of Mato Grosso (also in the Midwest), not widely known to Brazilians, will soon have biodiesel pouring out like rain.


Somalia: Africa Oil Demands President's Signature for Puntland Project

A Canadian exploration firm with rights in Somalia's northern Puntland enclave has demanded the signature of interim President Abdullahi Yusuf before the exploration project can move forward, inside sources told Garowe Online.


Gambia: Oil Discovery for the Gambia is Another Hoax

The oil that never was. Gambia's President Yahya Jammeh has been lying about an oil discovery in the sores of the Gambia, but in reality there is no oil in this country. Mr. Jammeh should give up his unfinished lies for the sake of preserving the reputation of the Presidency. Gambians have long been treated as dummies by Jammeh. We can bet that come 2009, there wouldn't be any oil mining in The Gambia. Jammeh is just buying time. He has failed miserably as a leader.


Cash-Strapped Consumers

During the holiday shopping season, Americans bought fewer gifts while paying more for necessities. From Thanksgiving to Christmas, spending rose only 3.6 percent over the same period last year, the weakest performance in at least four years, according to early tallies from MasterCard Advisors, a unit of the credit card company. One-third of that increase was for gas purchases.


The Diminishing Demand For Dollars (Part I)

The value of a currency—if not clearly defined and maintained by a credible authority in what is called a fixed exchange rate regime — is determined by the relationship between the supply of that currency (in the case of the America dollar, determined by the Federal Reserve’s control over the ‘printing’ of money or creation of currency) and the demand for that currency (in the case of the American dollar, determined by how often the dollar is used in transactions for goods and services by individuals and institutions).

Because oil is denominated or officially priced in dollars, that important commodity has represented a significant demand for the dollar.


Soaring oil bills put pressure on Africa's fragile economies

When prices rise, it is the poor who suffer most. This year's surge in the oil price towards $100 a barrel has been no exception: it is a concern for rich countries but its greatest threat is to the poorest.

The oil shocks of the 1970s were one of the roots of the developing-country debt crisis of the 1980s. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, argues that as soaring oil import bills put pressure on fragile economies, there is a danger the pattern will be repeated.

He calculates that the additional cost of oil imports for his sample of 13 countries since 2004 is $10.6bn: equal to 3 per cent of their gross domestic product over that period. "It is a worrying trend," he said.


Playing That '70s Funk Again, but Not in a Good Way

Like fundamentalists forced to keep pushing back the date of the Rapture, environmental activists remain convinced of the current crisis; they're just not sure which will get us first, "peak oil" or global warming. Former oil analyst turned environmental zealot Jan Lundberg predicts the coming of a "final energy crisis" that rivals the most chilling denouements since the Book of Revelations. Once the price of oil reaches astronomic levels, he predicts, we'll see "End time for USA" and "the swiftest empire collapse in history."

Is there anything good to be drawn from this analogy? Sure. After all, the '70s didn't last forever. In the two decades that followed, minus a brief break in the early 1990s, the United States experienced pretty consistent economic growth. The scariest bogeymen of the 1970s -- Japan, the European Union, the Soviet Union -- all fared much worse.


Opening Your Energy Mailbag

By 2030, global demand will reach the equivalent of 115 million-120 million barrels of crude per day, but the world may not be able to produce more than 100 million barrels a day. The result likely will be disruptions and confrontations on a global scale. The term for this shortfall is "peak oil," and for too long it's been considered a concern of the lunatic fringe.


Slow down — to save both fuel and money

Engineers say the most efficient speed for a motor is somewhere between 30 and 55 mph. Beyond 60 mph, the fuel economy drops off substantially. The cost is only pennies per mile, but that amounts to a couple of bucks for an hour’s drive. Several studies show about a 12 percent reduction in gas consumption for those who slow from 75 mph to 60 mph.


Solar energy 'revolution' brings green power closer

The holy grail of renewable energy came a step closer yesterday as thousands of mass-produced wafer-thin solar cells printed on aluminium film rolled off a production line in California, heralding what British scientists called "a revolution" in generating electricity.


Solar's time to shine

In a place that calls itself the Sunshine State, you'd think everybody would be using solar energy. You'd think high utility costs would be an incentive to turn to a source that's free. But in a state with a population exceeding 18 million, only about 15,000 homeowners heat their swimming pools with solar, and there are several thousand domestic solar water heaters, according to the Florida Solar Energy Center.


Chevron shuts Australian oil fields due to cyclone

Oil major Chevron said on Saturday it has shut down operations at two of its oil fields off northwest Australia due to an approaching cyclone.

A Chevron spokesman said the evacuation of non-essential personnel was well-advanced and operations on Barrow and Thevenard Islands were being shut. The fields have a combined production of about 8,000 barrels per day.


'Indonesia to issues incentives for boosting oil output'

Indonesia's Finance Ministry announced new fiscal incentives on Saturday to boost the country's oil production, which is likely to be below this year's target.

Indonesia is expected to produce 899,000 barrels per day this year, below the target of 950,000 bpd in the 2007 budget.


China National Petroleum subsidiaries to pay billions for Central Asia gas pipeline

China's biggest oil company, China National Petroleum Corp., will spend US$2.2 billion (euro1.5 billion) to help build a natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan that will eventually supply energy for booming cities such as Shanghai, a state news agency reported.

China's energy demands have soared, driven by annual economic growth that has exceeded 10 percent the past four years. Energy companies have signed a flurry of deals to explore for and develop oil and gas in former Soviet republics, Africa and elsewhere.


Russia Soon to Export Fuel Oil to North Korea

Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Losyukov announced that Russia is soon to export fuel oil to North Korea in exchange for the latter's actions on deactivation of nuclear objects.


BP refinery nears end of repairs

BP PLC’s Texas City refinery should be near full capacity in another four to six weeks, a company spokesman said Friday.

The refinery has been operating at about half its capacity of 470,000 barrels a day since March 2005, when a series of explosions killed 15 workers and injured almost 200 more. The end of repairs will have consequences not only for the company and industry as a whole, but also for Texas City, which will reach another milestone in a long and painful recovery from the disaster.


Detroit Considers Sale of City’s Small Parks

The Recreation Department’s master plan calls the proposal “park repositioning,” which officials promote as a clear-eyed way to look at necessary downsizing, a way to align park space with the significant demographic shifts over the last half-century in Detroit, which has lost about a million people since 1950.

But critics say it could further hurt downtrodden areas where parks are equally appreciated, and that green space is too precious to be bartered for money.

Fuel of War
http://tinyurl.com/ytzte2

"There is no doubt about our absolute and complete dependence upon oil. We have passed from the stone age, to bronze, to iron, to the industrial age, and now to an age of oil. Without oil, American civilization as we know it could not exist."
~Harold Ickes, America's first energy "czar" under Franklin Roosevelt

Life in Amerika's going to be tough without that cheap energy.

E. Swanson

very true. American civilization is an extensive meditation on the varieties and permutations of the hydrocarbon bond.

That may not be the best the Earth can come up with, and in the fullness of time, it is bound to be transient.

My question for 2008 -- can human intelligence come up with something better?

"My question for 2008 -- can human intelligence come up with something better?"

We function best in small groups and "something better" will need to incorporate that part of our psyche. If we do succeed in establishing something better, the trick would be to keep it from devolving back to globalism and corporatism.

Francois

I suspect lack of cheap, abundant energy will take care of that.

Complex societies have a lot of overhead. It's fossil fuels that have allowed our current complexity. I think we'll be hard-pressed to maintain globalism in the face of declining net energy.

The Romans did, after a fashion, for many centuries. However, they did it on the back of their forests, which in the lifetime of a human being is more or less fossil fuel.

A global elite will still be able to function well after "peak oil" and "peak forest" and the rest -- and they may continue to have the power to enslave the rest of us, though that is the stuff of science fiction.

But will anyone survive "peak air?"

I've no doubt other empires will arise. Temporarily, at least. But the kind of globalism we have now...I really doubt it.

any ideas?

There are plenty of ideas, but as long as the energy companies are making huge profits off of the status quo, there will be little money available to implement those new ideas.

Speaking of Plenty of Ideas, it seems many of the contributors to this blog represent a vast cross section of industries. It seems that every energy intensive industry, or ones that manufacture energy comsuming products, are in fact focusing a great deal of ingenuity on efficiency and cutting demand. Many fronts are advancing simultaneously, and perhaps a thread, or a string of posts can touch on some of these in order to shed some hope on softening the blow from demand outstripping supply.
I have some examples I've come across in my line of work I can share if there is an interest.

GW

I heard there's this weird kind of element which makes a whole bunch of energy if you hit it really hard.

"We function best in small groups"
Probably, maybe.....depending on what level of complexity the groups agree to live.

We arrived at where we are now because "small groups", became provinces, countries and empires.

That we will probably devolve into small groups again to my mind is quite frightening, given the current populations and limited resources.

The lines along which the small groups decide to form themselves, will establish the battle lines in conflicts over everything that has been thus far suppressed by enforcible laws, higher education, high employment and free trade among others.

That small groups will form along lines of ethnicity, religion and other beliefs and that they will be perceived by other groups as being "a threat", due to what they control with resources and their practices, can only lead to conflicts on a scale we have read about in history books.

The bigger the small group you have and the bigger the amount of resources you control and can protect, will be the safest survival strategy.

I know there are utopian views of how the world will look and behave as populations decline due to the affects of peak oil, I don't mind hearing them, I just find them hard to believe considering human nature.

Uh-huh
Thinking of existing groups in the U.S. as models for future survival bands, cults and 'organizations' which might form.

Bikers
Ex Military
Cops
Militias
Apocryphal religious groups
Ethnic and non ethnic Gangs

Yeah I'm not too Utopian either.

The first two have a huge overlap, and the first four would surely find a way to work together.

Yes we seem to go to a lot of trouble to be sure that nearly everyone in U.S. society has an opportunity to familiarize themselves with weapons and become skilled in their use. The video game thing too.
And we musn't forget WT's FWOs (formerly well offs)suburbanites who generally have hunting (or paintball) skills.

Yes, the first two have a huge overlap. Maybe the first four would work together somewhere...Not around here. Bikers around here dont hold cops in general in high regard. Some individual cops are well thought of...because they are seen as fair and they are as contemptous of some stupid laws as most bikers. The militias are wannabe cops attempting to gain control of their individual little fiefdoms via anarchy. The bikers would eradicate them.

Human intelligence has already come up with many things that if implemented would give us 'something better.' Intelligence is not the limiting factor. What does limit us are political institutions and deeply embedded economic systems that give free reign to out natural instincts toward greed, selfishness, domination and the lust for power. Basically, our very natue is working against us.

I've heard it said that it remains to be seen whether man's superior intelligence over the long run will turn out to be a successful survival trait. If we destroy all civilization in a nuclear holocaust or wreck the earth's life support structure, then the answer would be NO.

Roaches, rats, and sharks have over millions of years already proven their success as species. Humans have been at the survival game for only a small fraction of that time and appear to be exhibiting some increasingly self-destructive tendencies. The prognosis is not encouraging.

Maybe a massive die-off and collapse of human civilization will be nature's way of 'resetting the timers', so to speak. However, responsible men and women of good will have no choice but to keep bailing even though the ship appears to be sinking. One thing that is NOT in human nature is to give up.

part of the concept of "intelligence" has got to be the creation of political and economic systems.

The individual intelligence which is so strikingly apparent in small groups and among isolated geniuses has to be extended to a wider sphere. Evidence for that is regrettably hard to find "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" -- but I guess as you say, we have to keep looking. Human beings are mostly not quitters, but sometimes I wonder if tenacity and intelligence are somehow inversely proportional in the human psyche. It sometimes seems like the most perceptive among us are the first to become depressed and withdraw from the fray.

joule, evolutionary psychologists suggest that psychological depression evolved as a way of getting animals to conserve energy when confronted with an unwinnable situation.

My point: maybe Americans need to 'give up'. IMO Americans are 'human doings', not 'human beings'. They need to do a lot less mindless activity, which would cut fossil fuel consumption deeply and quickly.

I'll also suggest the invention and widespread use of antij-depressants is one part of the machine that has enslaved most Americans. If they weren't medicated up the wazoo, they would experience depression appropriate to the situation we find ourselves in. If we do get a fast crash, one of the positive feedbacks that will turn it runaway will be unavailability/inability to afford psychoactive meds.

Just an idea...

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

edit: Maybe investing in booze and cigarettes would be a good crash stategy.

I tend to agree with much of what you've said.

Being bummed out is a perfectly sane reaction to a hopeless situation. On the other hand, being cheerful and smiley when you have absolutely no reason to is a sign that you either don't understand the situation or are psychotic.

Most people don't take radical action until they've become so pissed off and/or desperate that they no longer care about the consequences. There is often greater value in negative thinking than in 'positive thinking', as the positive thinker often deludes himself that things will work out when he has absolutely no rational reason for believing so. For example, in Germany during the mid-1930s it was the Jews who were negative thinkers that fled Germany and thus escaped the Holocaust, whereas the positive thinkers figured that Hitler wouldn't last and thus perished.

Having people tranquilized 24/7 helps them tolerate situations they should not have to tolerate and thus prevents radical action. I find the current US practice of heavily medicating school-age children for totally normal childhood behavioral 'problems' to be a very evil thing indeed and an indication of how bankrupt the US public education system is and how grotesque modern American society has become. The thing I find surprising is not that there have been a number Columbine High incidents but that there are not a lot more of them.

''...The best way to take control over a people and control them utterly is to take a little of their freedom at a time, to erode rights by a thousand tiny and almost imperceptible reductions. In this way the people will not see those rights and freedoms being removed until past the point at which these changes cannot be reversed''...

- Adolf Hitler

This was certainly true in Germany in the 30's. For all, but first of all, for the Jews.

The Polish branch of my Wife's family had this choice in the 30's.

Stay or leave.

Two young, enterprising Poles left. One , a lecturer in metallurgy, the other a concert grade pianist.

The first was happy to clerk in the Sheffield steel industry. The second was happy to carve a living as a jobbing piano tutor.

Both ultimately carved a serious business for themselves.

My wife's Grandmother entertained General Sikorsky and his staff on an illegally reared and roasted pig in 1943

The others (100+) that remained in Poland 'disappeared'...

Some by Germans, Some by Russians.

No matter...'Scratched by a cat or bitten by a dog - the pain is the same'...

My daughter did a recital of Chopin after Christmas Lunch this year.

At least as good as her Grandmother or even perhaps her
Great - Grandmother

Success is (always) the best revenge.

Dont ever take it lying down.

Vote if you can, shoot if you cant, run if you can do neither.

By 1939 there were very few Jews left in Germany whether positive thinker or negative thinker. The main impediment to Jewish emmigration in the 30's was finding a country that would let them in.

I think USSR was open for them (most of USSR political elite at that time was Jewish I believe). My wife's grand-grand father came to USSR from Poland back them.

USSR political elite was not Jewish. I haven't studied their immigration policy. I suppose people fled Poland in any direction they could.

USSR was a pretty anti-semitic place but so was Poland, and Germany, and Romania, and etc.

They were not Jews.

They were middle class Poles.

They were targets by both sides.

Joule
I'd normalcy pass over this kind $%/#. But I've allwas thought you to be one of our better posters. So.
"There is often greater value in negative thinking than in 'positive thinking', as the positive thinker often deludes himself that things will work out when he has absolutely no rational reason for believing so'."
Don't confuse 'positive thinking' with stupidity. I hate stupid people and get depressed when I think about them. much ancient thought revolves around positive thought. Hell, Buddha sat for seven years in a cave and found the ultimate positive thought. Hows that for a carbon foot print.
I don't think Hitler was a positive thinker but think MLK Jr. was.
If you want to be bummed out go ahead, what ever makes you happy.
I've found the key to being happy is just being happy.
Nelson Mandela used this in one of his speeches.
I'd like yo end my sermon with this
Out of positive thought comes positive action and we desperately need that. I don't think the Black Water solution is a positive one.

earl,

In his book "Authentic Happiness", Dr Martin E P Seligman writes of research indicating that while pessimists tend to be less happy than optimists, the pessimists have a more accurate perception of reality. In other words, as a generality positive thinkers do indeed delude themselves.

Also, as I understand it, Buddha's big insights were:
1 Life is suffering
2 The cause of suffering is attachment to things, people, and outcomes
Quite the happy-face, that Mr Buddha!

The pessimists of a society have their purpose; our time is now.

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

I think the big insights were:

1. there is suffering
2. the causes of suffering are attachment
3. there can be an end to suffering
4. the steps one takes to end suffering

Great response
I'm not optimistic about our societies future at all. The whole thing is real messed up. ( that's as politely as I can put it)
This is a tricky subject, bordering on the theological. I personally think we can be pessimistic and still try to do the right thing. Are you familiar with the stories of people coming across villages wiped out by famine but upon entering houses they found the stores of seed grain intact? That's the situation I think we are facing. I'd like to work toward something better after all this bleep goes down and I think that will take positive thought/action.
As far as Dr. Seligman goes. Well, is this book worth reading? Because I think I have happiness figured out, if you want to be happy then be happy

I've heard it said that it remains to be seen whether man's superior intelligence over the long run will turn out to be a successful survival trait.

what is man's superior intelligence? is that the inventiveness in tool and gadget making? or the long range thinking and the ability to act against man's own instinct and desire? only if people could understand these few letters that have around for 2500 years: 绝学无忧

Nh3, your four words did not come through so I have no idea what they are. But it seems that you do not understand the term "man's superior intelligence".

Here is how it works. Every species have survival techniques, or something that gives them an advantage. The eagle has flight and telescopic vision. The vulture has flight and a superior sense of smell. The tiger has speed, fangs, strength and so on.

Homo sapiens have one main survival mechanism, their wits. Homo sapiens cannot run very fast, little strength and being the only primate without an opposing big toe, cannot even climb very well. Homo sapiens are the only non-arboreal ape. We have only our wits to aid us in survival.

As a species we compete with every other species on earth for territory and resources. And we are winning….big time! We are the most successful species ever to evolve. We are taking territory and resources from every other species on earth.

But our wits gear us only for individual or tribal survival. Of course, as all species do, we must compete with those of our own species. Now that our resources are about to go into decline, that battle will likely become very bloody. We will no longer be matching wits with other species, but matching wits with our own species in our battle for survival. It will be nasty, very nasty.

Ron Patterson

I quite agree.

Having given up hope for meaningful societal cooperation on the "triumvarate of collapse", I visit this site for information that might give me a comparative advantage. The matching of wits you describe has already started, and I intend to use my intelligence for the purpose it evolved.

PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami

Now that our resources are about to go into decline, that battle will likely become very bloody.

The problem with that argument, is that humans have always fought over resources, in the form of territory. According to your theory, now that most areas of the world are occupied, and there is maximum pressure for space, we should be in the midst of very bloody global warfare, but we are not.

One significant feature of humans, perhaps brought by having intelligence, is the remarkable ability to cooperate and live in dense populations with non-kin neighbours. In most species this would be a recipe for intense conflict, but not in humans. Only in some cases do ethnic rivalries flare up into conflict, for the most part people see the benefit of cooperating instead of fighting.

In addition, war requires resources. Studies have shown that guerilla warfare occurs where a resource is available to fund it, eg. diamonds. Without resources, countries simply cannot afford to fight. Any major wars that are likely to occur (i.e. with the US involved) are likely to be quick and one sided.

I would argue the exact opposite is equally likely, i.e. that we could see unprecedented global cooperation. In practice, I expect a similar level of warfare and cooperation that we have now.

HI Bob,

This is really interesting.

re: "I would argue the exact opposite is equally likely, i.e. that we could see unprecedented global cooperation."

It would take some time to dig up references on relative levels of violence throughout history, and I'm not familiar with them (just know they exist).

It's a great idea to turn the assumptions around - to look at the high levels of cooperation that