DrumBeat: January 24, 2008


Shell CEO sees no reason for panic over economy

"I look at the energy industry, and of course we look at the total economic climate, but we don't see any reason for panic," Jeroen van der Veer told Reuters.

"I don't see a real reason for a kind of panic. There may be a bit of slower growth," he said of the U.S. economy.

"Think about the Far East and the Middle East, there's lots of economic growth. I expect positive economic growth for Europe."

"We expect total energy demand in the year 2008 to be higher than the year 2007. That's very relevant for our industry."

Wal-Mart plans to take leadership role in energy, trade, health costs

KANSAS CITY, Missouri: Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which launched a broad environmental push in late 2005, wants to expand that focus to other issues including energy prices, international trade and U.S. health care costs.

Chief Executive Lee Scott outlined plans in a speech Wednesday to push for more energy-saving products for Wal-Mart shoppers, work with other retailers on social and environmental standards for the foreign companies they buy from, and trim prescription and health records costs at home.

The world's largest retailer may even someday install windmills or solar panels at its stores that would allow shoppers to charge electric vehicles, and it is talking with automakers about a possible role in the hybrid and electric car market, although Scott said those ideas were still "out there."


Valero Texas Refinery Starts Unit Damaged in Fire

(Bloomberg) -- Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. refiner, said it has begun restoring to service the final unit damaged in a fire last year at its McKee refinery in Texas.

The refinery will return to full rates of production once the propane deasphalter is at full power by the end of this month, Bill Day, a company spokesman, said in a telephone interview. The refinery, which shut after the February blaze, is running at about 90 percent of its capacity.


As Russia moves in, EU bickers over fees

BERLIN: Even as Russia works to increase Europe's dependence on it for oil and natural gas shipments, Europe is bickering with Turkey about fees for a pipeline that could be an alternative to the Kremlin option.


Steve Levine: An Oil-Powered Russia

The most important fact in Russia's re-emergence on the world stage is energy, and its most important instrument in parlaying that into actual power--and projecting it abroad--is control of the flow of that oil and natural gas from the former Soviet Union to places abroad. This pipeline--the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, with its million barrels of daily exports--is the first significant break in Russia's previous monopoly control over all oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea states.


No place else to go: Serbia should recognise that it has no alternative to the European Union

LUCKY countries seldom have to think hard about where their future lies. Serbia, sadly, is not one of them. The message from the leading candidate after the first round of Serbia's presidential election on January 20th was uncompromising. The Radicals' Tomislav Nikolic, who took almost 40% of the vote, declared that Serbia must turn its back on the nasty European Union and solidify its links with the nice Russians instead. Right on cue Gazprom, Russia's energy giant, agreed to buy the Serbian national oil monopoly and to link Serbia to its planned South Stream gas pipeline.


Peak Oil As Obsessional Neurosis

When writing about peak oil and related matters in the category of doom and gloom, one encounters Nietzsche’s paradox: There are only two kinds of readers, those who already know, and those who will never know, so why bother? Isn’t it the case that to be caught in such a circle is solid evidence of an obsessional neurosis?


OPEC Doesn't Need to Raise Production, Ministers Say

Bloomberg) -- OPEC doesn't need to increase oil production when it meets next week because supply is adequate, ministers from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq said.

``I don't see the need for more,'' Qatar's Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, today after meeting with his U.A.E. counterpart Mohamed al-Hamli. ``The market is well balanced.''


Venezuela to suffer little from US woes - minister

CARACAS (Reuters) - Problems in the U.S. economy will not hurt Venezuela in the short-term but could lower prices of the OPEC nation's vital oil exports, Venezuela's economy minister Rafael Isea said on Thursday.

Isea told reporters that an economic downturn could affect demand for crude oil, but added its effect on Venezuela's basket of crude oil and refined products should not be "severe."


Venezuelan oil output averages 2.39 million in 2007

Venezuelan oil production last year dropped 148,000 bpd, averaging 2.39 million bpd, according to the latest bulletin published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

While production picked up in the last quarter of 2007, in January-September it spiraled down.


Algeria to broaden oil assets

Algeria plans to use an upcoming hydrocarbons bidding round to increase the overseas assets of Sonatrach, the state oil company, as part of a strategy to gain exposure to new markets.

Chakib Khelil, the energy minister, told the Financial Times that Sonatrach – which already has projects in other parts of Africa, Latin America and Portugal – was also looking at potential acquisitions to expand its international operations.


Mexico Senate sees April energy law proposal

MEXICO CITY – Mexican senators expect to have a proposal ready in April for an energy reform aimed at revitalizing the sector and possibly bringing vital deepwater oil in the Gulf within reach, a senior legislator said.

After a year consulting with Mexican and foreign experts, lawmakers from all parties agree the oil sector needs a shake-up to ensure Mexico's future as a world class oil exporter, Sen. Ruben Camarillo told Reuters.


El Paso Tennessee Gas unit declares force majeure

NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Paso Corp unit Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co declared force majeure due to a "possible leak" on its natural gas pipeline system in offshore Louisiana, the company said Thursday.

"Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co is declaring a force majeure ... The reason for the event is to repair a possible leak on the line," the company said in a Web site posting.


Alberta targets emission cuts with carbon capture

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Alberta, Canada's biggest oil-producing province, aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 14 percent from 2005 levels as part of a climate-change plan that imposes few restrictions on major industrial emitters.


Deforestation of Brazil's Amazon rises sharply

SAO PAULO, Brazil - The rate of Amazon deforestation rose sharply during the last five months of 2007 as land was cleared for soy and cattle, prompting a top-level emergency meeting Thursday by government officials to deal with the problem.


Delays threaten refinery construction programme

A report in Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) newsletter has highlighted the mounting delays in the tendering process for Saudi Aramco's three joint-venture (JV) refineries, two of which are being developed with France's Total and ConocoPhillips, respectively.

The report, writes Global Insight energy analyst Samuel Ciszuk, has also managed to receive an official answer denying persistent rumours claiming that the Jizan refinery project—to which a JV partner has not yet been secured—is dead.

What seems more and more certain, however, is that the global cost escalations are hitting the Saudi projects with full force, causing many to question the economy behind the projects at this time and adding further uncertainties for subcontractors and suppliers. It also seems that the delays affecting the more advanced Jubail and Yanbu' projects are now surpassing one year.


BP: World produces ‘all oil it needs’

BP Plc, Europe’s second-largest oil company, said the world is producing “all the oil it needs’’ and consumption may fall in the future because of the environmental pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Crude oil production will continue to rise this year, as it did in 2007, said Peter Davies, BP’s chief economist. Prices rose to US$100 a barrel earlier this month partly because the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries restricted supplies, while spare production capacity has increased, he said.

“People will run out of demand before they run out of oil,’’ Davies said in Westminster, London. “We are not short of resources to produce.’’


$100 A Barrel Oil – My Predictions Revisited

As I will discuss in my annual predictions next week, 2008 will be the year when the concept of peak oil will move into the larger awareness of the public. A great number of scientists and energy experts believe, as do I, that the world is now passing through peak oil. When the understanding of this probability sinks in it will trigger some oil producing companies to start to manage sales for the long term. This could well drive up the price as production will be limited as these countries look for long term revenues.


U.S. recession could drag oil to $70 - Petroleum Secretary

LONDON (Reuters) - A major recession in the United States could drag oil prices down by at least 20 percent and strong oil demand growth in China, India and the Middle East will not be able to make up the demand shortfall, Petroleum Secretary M.S. Srinivasan said on Wednesday.


Saudi Arabia Plans Its First Sovereign Wealth Fund

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, plans to start its first sovereign wealth fund with about $6 billion, channeling surplus crude-oil revenue into investments in foreign companies.


Bodman Says He Doesn't Expect OPEC to Cut Oil Output on Feb. 1

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said he didn't expect OPEC to cut oil production when the group meets on Feb 1. because it would hurt economic growth.

"I don't expect OPEC will cut output," Bodman told reporters in Cairo today during a tour of the Middle East. "It will not have a salutary effect on world economic production."


Analysis: Yar'Adua eyes emerging Nigeria

Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua is hoping to transform his energy-rich country into a leading world player on the energy market and beyond during the next decade by improving the country's oil and gas production as well as its infrastructure.


Signing Your Economic Stimulus Over to the Saudis?

President Bush's economic stimulus plan would put $800 in the pocket of almost every taxpayer. Given that Congress is pretty much on the same page, why isn't that prospect buoying everyone's hopes? Maybe one reason is that Wall Street and consumers alike realize that unless oil prices drop significantly--which may well happen if we fall into a recession--many will be emptying that newfound stash just to pay for the increase in gasoline and other energy prices this year.


Zambia power woes worsen, may dent '08 copper output

LUSAKA (Reuters) - Zambia's copper output for 2008 could be hurt by a serious power crisis that has gripped the country, forcing the rationing of power and suspension of operations at copper mines, officials said on Thursday.

"If the power shortages continue, then we are in for a rude shock in terms of production," Frederick Bantubonse, the head of the Zambia Chamber of Mines told Reuters.


Canadians' dependence on cars rising

So much for fears about gas emissions and climate change.

Car dependence is on the rise, even as more Canadians declare concern for the environment and live in urban areas with access to better public transit.


Creating a Car Culture in China

As the cost of owning a car comes down, young urbanites have started buying them mostly for fun, as opposed to four or five years ago, when many bought for reasons of "face" -- to show off to neighbors and friends. Chen said most of his customers are between 18 and 28 years old, though some are in their mid-30s and own two or three cars each.


Asia To Account For Two-Thirds Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions By 2010

"By 2010, Asia is expected to account for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, so to slow that down, increases in investment in renewable energy, energy efficiency and other clean technologies are needed," said Mu Shin Kim, Investment Specialist of ADB's Private Sector Operations Department.


Iceland's Hydrogen Ship Heralds Fossil-Free Future

REYKJAVIK - At first glance, the red ship hardly looks like a herald of the future. Even its owner admits the hull needs a coat of paint and the interior some spit and polish.

But in a few weeks, the Elding -- Icelandic for "Lightning" -- will be transformed into the world's first hydrogen-equipped commercial vessel, the latest sign that Iceland is pushing hard to become the first nation to break free from the constraints of fossil fuel.


Britain will need 12,500 wind farms to satisfy EU targets

In a mere dozen years, the amount of UK electricity generated by renewable technologies such as wind, wave and tidal power will have to reach nearly half the national total, under ambitious plans put forward by the European Commission in Brussels.

The remarkable eight-fold expansion, from today's 5 per cent to about 40 per cent by 2020, or even more, represents a true energy revolution comparable in scale to the arrival of North Sea oil.


Bio-diesel film not to everyone's tastes at Sundance

PARK CITY, Utah (AFP) — Activist Josh Tickell has been using and promoting bio-diesel for about 10 years as an alternative to fossil fuels, helping America lessen its dependence on foreign oil.

In his documentary film "Fields of Fuel," premiering at the Sundance Film Festival this week, he outlines the historical origins of and the political constructs that support petroleum use.

As well, he presents the benefits of bio-diesel, how it can be grown locally anywhere in the world to shift multi-national energy companies' clout to local communities, mustering applause from audiences here.

But not everyone is buying into his message.


The lowdown on topsoil: It's disappearing

The planet is getting skinned.

While many worry about the potential consequences of atmospheric warming, a few experts are trying to call attention to another global crisis quietly taking place under our feet.

Call it the thin brown line. Dirt. On average, the planet is covered with little more than 3 feet of topsoil -- the shallow skin of nutrient-rich matter that sustains most of our food and appears to play a critical role in supporting life on Earth.

"We're losing more and more of it every day," said David Montgomery, a geologist at the University of Washington. "The estimate is that we are now losing about 1 percent of our topsoil every year to erosion, most of this caused by agriculture."


U.S. Given Poor Marks on the Environment

A new international ranking of environmental performance puts the United States at the bottom of the Group of 8 industrialized nations and 39th among the 149 countries on the list.


Faraway food production

Without doubt, there are enormous implications for our warming world as we move foodstuffs farther and farther. There are also economic consequences, as highlighted in recent weeks when oil prices temporarily broke past US$100 per barrel, a psychologically important event that many energy analysts believe signals the beginning of an inexorable climb in fossil-fuel prices as we approach peak oil. Higher gas prices mean higher costs to bring goods to market.

But transportation isn’t the half of it when it comes to oil and most present-day food production, as Sharon Ellis will tell you. Seed costs are climbing because of both the distance the seeds are transported and the fuel used to grow them, whether it’s the fuel burned in the machines that cultivate the land and bring in the crops or the petroleum-based fertilizers used in so much present-day crop production. Ellis is the fourth generation in her family to farm on Westham Island or nearby farmlands in Delta, and she grows a lot of pumpkins. A package of just 100 Prize Winner pumpkin seeds costs her $42. Five years ago it was $30, and back just 10 years ago the sticker price was half what it is today.


Winter saps China energy supplies

China is facing its worst-ever power shortage as winter weather puts pressure on dwindling coal supplies.

Officials say reserves are down to emergency levels with only enough coal to power the entire country for another eight days.


Pinched by Price Controls, Power Plants in China Scale Back

HONG KONG — The Chinese government issued an “urgent notice” on Wednesday to the country’s power generators, coal companies and railways to address an electricity shortage that has led to rationing in more than a third of China’s provinces in recent weeks.

The rationing, mostly achieved by telling factories that their power will be shut off for a day or two each week, coincides with the annual frenzy of factory production to meet orders before shutting down for the Chinese New Year holidays, which fall in early February this year.


China Power Gap Hits Aluminum Maker

SHANGHAI, China — Aluminum Corp. of China said Thursday it has stopped production at two factories, another sign a worsening power shortage in the country is beginning to affect regional industries.

China's largest aluminum maker, also known as Chalco, said it suspended output at its Guizhou aluminum plant and at Zunyi Aluminum Corp., both in southwestern Guizhou province, beginning Wednesday.


Nepal: Govt withdraws fuel price hike, country limps back to normalcy

KATHMANDU, Jan 23 - The government Wednesday afternoon withdrew its Monday’s decision to hike the price of diesel, Kerosene and cooking gas after the decision sparked nationwide protests.

Nepal Oil Corporation has been directed to roll back the price hike through an emergency ministerial-level decision, Supplies Minister Shyam Sundar Gupta said.


Malaysia to Stockpile Staple Foods to Avoid Shortage

(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm oil producer, plans to stockpile cooking oil, rice and other essentials to safeguard supplies and stabilize prices that have surged to records globally.


Endesa Chile moves up power plant start date

"It was moved up because it's better to face the winter with more power instead of less," Rafael Mateo, Endesa Chile's chief executive said at a ceremony given by the energy ministry at a liquid natural gas (LNG) terminal that is under construction on the Quintero Bay in central Chile.

The project, scheduled for completion in 2009, is part of a government plan to become more energy independent after severe cuts in natural gas from Argentina and lower hydroelectric reservoir levels due to scant rainfall caused electricity prices to skyrocket.

The San Isidro II power plant, involving an investment of more than $220 million, is currently operating with diesel fuel, but will use natural gas once the LNG terminal is ready.


Energy crises impact whole Southern African region mining sector

Despite the mining industry in the southern African region contributing immensely to the region's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), an energy crisis that has hit the region is threatening to overturn such gains and deny mining companies maximum benefits from the current strong minerals market.

The region's major mining countries of Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and South Africa confess that power outages are proving to be spanners in the works of an enhanced mining industry in the region. The countries have attributed the outages to archaic infrastructure failing to handle a growing demand for energy.


Experts warn South Africa could face ‘huge’ liquid fuel shortage

If the economy continues growing at 4%-plus a year then inland residents in areas like Africa's economic powerhouse, Gauteng, should start getting worried about a looming "huge" liquid fuel supply shortage, experts warned on Wednesday.

There would be massive shortages of petroleum products by as early as 2010, Industrial Development Corporation chief economist Lumkile Mondi said.


South Africa: People rushing to buy generators

Talisman Plant and Tool Hire product and services manager Magda Swanepoel said: “There has been a big demand for generators and as a result we are sold out nationwide. The demand has increased drastically in the last two weeks – we have a backlog of three months.”


Biofuels could generate extensive food shortages

Ask anyone on the street, and it's likely they'll tell you that biofuels made with plants such as corn are the Number 1 contender to solve the energy crisis. The popularity of biofuels is not surprising, considering the glowing TV advertising Canadians have seen. You'd think that filling up with corn-produced ethanol will easily stop climate change and solve all of our future energy needs in one fell swoop.

But the truth is that adopting biofuels as a large-scale alternative to fossil fuels to combat global warming could create a whole host of new problems – including widespread food shortages.


Heinberg: Peak everything economics, or, what do you call this mess?

It's becoming increasingly clear that 2008 will be a catastrophic year for the US economy, and therefore probably for that of the world as a whole. The reasons boil down to two: continuing and snowballing fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco (exacerbated by an orgy of debt-leveraging), and record-high, continuously advancing oil prices.

But will the impact be inflationary or deflationary? This matters, because the diagnosis determines how governments and financial institutions should respond, and what private citizens should do to protect themselves.


Top 50 of World's Energy Companies Led by Six Nationals

Three years ago, the top six names on the PFC Energy 50 ranking of the world's largest oil & gas industry companies were ExxonMobil, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Chevron and Eni. This year's top six include Petrochina, Gazprom, Sinopec and Petrobras, National Oil Companies (NOCs), whose shares are traded on public markets, but which are majority-owned by the governments of China, Russia and Brazil. The preeminent positions of these NOCs on the PFC Energy 50 list reflect a profound change in the global energy industry. With some 65% of oil and gas reserves off-limits to International Oil Companies (IOCs), the majors are finding it increasingly difficult to deliver growth in reserves and production, while the NOCs offer more convincing growth prospects.


Kuwait's Oil Revenues for Next FY Jump 56% to More than $42 Billion

Kuwait's budget for the next fiscal year projects record spending, record revenues, and a record deficit of U.S.$18.8 billion, reports Dow Jones. Kuwait's budget includes oil revenues estimated at more than $42 billion, which are 56% more than what was projected for the current fiscal year.


International Forecaster January 2008 (#6) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

Note that the so-called peak oil effect is partly real and contrived but is also partly fiction. While we agree that the failure to seek out new profitable sources of oil and to increase refinement capacity were planned by the Illuminati to cause growing shortages, most of the gains in oil recently are due to the loss of value in the dollar, not to increases in demand and decreases in production. Both gold and oil have moved in tandem together as the dollar has been taken to the woodshed.

When all the world's major economies start their big swirl around the toilet bowl, all the oil-producing and resource-rich countries such as Russia, the Middle East, Australia, Canada and Venezuela as well as much of Africa and South America will get hammered as prices plummet.


Statoil Signs Agreement with PDVSA to Quantify Reserves

StatoilHydro's Chief Executive Helge Lund has signed two agreements with Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela’s Oil and Energy Minister and CEO of PDVSA.

..."With the signing of these agreements, we are confirming our long term commitment to Venezuela and interest to expand our industrial activity in this country. The signing of these agreements represents a great opportunity to StatoilHydro to support the development of the Venezuelan oil business," says Helge Lund.


America's Greatest Problem: Growth

In a three part interview, I found myself astounded by author Michael Folkerth’s book: “THE BIGGEST LIE EVER BELIEVED.” He epitomizes a humorous economist and the “King of Simple.”

His book presents irrefutable logic that this nation cannot continue growing for the long term. We must face the facts of our limited continent. We must come to terms with not being able to extract five quarts of water out of a one gallon jug!

“I constantly attempt to create analogies that represent our system of ever expanding economic growth and the impossibility of continuing the same,” Folkerth said. “Growth is not the answer; it’s the problem.


A community garden is born

Pacifica Gardens will help Pacifica become a sustainable community not only by providing food, but also by educating people how to grow it and how to prepare it.

"It's an answer to peak oil. When you can grow your garden, you eat food close to its original form, which is nutritionally what we should be doing. This is a great start to answering questions. Each phase of the garden will be a workshop - how to grow something, transplant something and how to prepare it."


TLC Farm, friends push for new codes

The crusade to make city codes and zoning regulations more amenable to smaller sustainability projects had a public meeting on Jan. 17, and the large, enthusiastic outpouring of support made Bell highly optimistic that Portland really can be re-coded.


The Gospel According to Matthew

But here is Matthew R. Simmons, the head of one of the largest investment banking firms in the world, stabbing at his salad greens and heatedly discussing the chaos to come when, as he has long predicted, global oil production peaks and for the rest of our time on earth we struggle and suffer and barely endure under a diminishing supply of fuel until it disappears entirely. This idea is known as "peak oil," and Simmons is its most fervent, and fearsome, apostle. As he puts it, "I don't see why people are so worried about global warming destroying the planet—peak oil will take care of that."

Slashing through his entrée, barely stopping for breath, he describes a bleak future, in which demand for oil will always surpass supply, the price will continue to rise—"so fast your head will spin"—and all sorts of problems in our carbon-dependent world will ensue. As fuel shortfalls complicate global delivery routes and leave farmers unable to run their tractors, we will face massive food shortages. Products made with petroleum, from asphalt and plastic to fabrics and computer chips, will also become scarcer and scarcer. Standards of living will fall, and people will not be able to pay their debts. Lending will tighten, and eventually there will be major defaults. Growth will cease, and hoarding will set in as oil becomes increasingly rare. Then, according to Simmons, the wars will begin. That is the peak oil scenario.


What does the world look like with less oil?

Nate Hagens is an editor of The Oil Drum , an online community that seeks to raise awareness about energy issues. A Ph.D. candidate in Natural Resources at the University of Vermont, Hagens's particular areas of interest are the principles of net energy and the bio-physiological factors that drive our energy demand.

Matt Savinar is the editor and writer of Life After the Oil Crash, a blog which paints a bleak picture of what life on earth will look like when natural oil supplies run out. Savinar recently received his J.D. from the University of California at Hastings College of the Law, and his work is quoted extensively on the floor of the United States Congress.


Mideast oil earnings could triple over next 14 years

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Six Middle East oil exporters stand to earn more than $6 trillion by 2022, and how they invest the funds could have financial and political repercussions that last decades, according to a report released on Thursday.


Wider Troubles Trickle Down to Oil Sector

As fears of an American recession ripple across the globe this week, analysts and energy experts are wondering whether the great oil boom of the last five years is finally coming to an end — or whether it is simply taking a break.


StatoilHydro Mongstad refinery restarts after fire

OSLO, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Norway's StatoilHydro said on Thursday that its Mongstad oil refinery has restarted and is operating at about 75 percent of its 186,000 barrel-per-day capacity after a fire forced a shutdown on Wednesday.


North Sea Sullom Voe Oil Terminal Suspends Berthing on Winds

(Bloomberg) -- The North Sea Sullom Voe terminal in the Shetland Islands, Scotland, which handles shipments of benchmark Brent crude, suspended berthing because of high winds, according to an update on the Shetland Islands Council Web Site at 4 a.m. today.

BP Plc, Europe's second-biggest oil company, operates Sullom Voe on behalf of a group of companies. The terminal handles oil from more than 20 fields in the North Sea, including Brent blend and Schiehallion crude, which is shipped by pipeline and shuttle tankers.


Iraq's 2007 Oil Exports Up 9.2% On Year Oil Minister

AMMAN -(Dow Jones)- Iraq's crude oil exports averaged 1.63 million barrels a day in 2007, some 9.2% more than in 2006, the Iraqi oil ministry said Thursday.

A total of 596.455 million barrels were exported in 2007, the ministry said in a statement seen by Dow Jones Newswires.


'Gas OPEC' could be established in June - paper

MOSCOW, January 24 (RIA Novosti) - Russia and other major natural gas exporters could announce a cartel similar to OPEC in Moscow in June, a Russian business daily said on Thursday.

Kommersant said, however, citing analysts, that even if the gas cartel was formed it would be unlikely to immediately achieve a comparable level of global influence to that enjoyed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the oil business due to U.S. and EU opposition.


EU sets emissions targets to fight climate change

BRUSSELS (AFP) - The European Commission set targets Wednesday for EU member states to slash greenhouse gases, seeking to calm fears about the burden of fighting climate change and warning that the cost of dithering would be much higher.


Republicans differ on global warming

WASHINGTON - While the major presidential candidates agree global warming is real, the Republicans are sharply divided over what to do about it — even as they chase votes in Florida, where the predicted risk of rising sea waters and more severe storms is anything but a passing concern.


Climate change 'significantly worse' than feared: Al Gore

DAVOS, Switzerland (AFP) - Climate change is occurring far faster than even the worst predictions of the UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change foresaw, Al Gore warned Thursday.

New evidence shows "the climate crisis is significantly worse and unfolding more rapidly than those on the pessimistic side of the IPCC projections had warned us," the former US vice president and climate campaigner told delegates at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos.


Forecasters debate hurricanes, warming

NEW ORLEANS - A lively and sometimes scrappy debate on whether global warming is fueling bigger and nastier hurricanes like Katrina is adding an edge to a gathering of forecasters here.

The venue for the 88th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society could not have been more conducive to the discussion: The Ernest N. Morial Convention Center is where thousands of people waited for days during the storm to be evacuated from a city drowning in water and misery.

The five biggest hurricanes of the Atlantic basin this century have already occurred:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/19/05854/9179/875/373391

I'm quite surprised by 2007 - the El Niño steering winds that broke up the 2006 season were gone, but still no major storms for the U.S. If this trend continues this year we start to see power plant shutdowns and perhaps city evacuations due to low water conditions in the southeast.

It would be interesting, in the sense of the Chinese curse, to see how the 2008 election plays out with the Republican stronghold suffering the wrath of god ...

Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Up, Nearly Matches Greenland Loss
January 23, 2008

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-010

PASADENA, Calif. – Ice loss in Antarctica increased by 75 percent in the last 10 years due to a speed-up in the flow of its glaciers and is now nearly as great as that observed in Greenland, according to a new, comprehensive study by NASA and university scientists.

"Rignot said. "Large uncertainties remain in predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level rise. Ice sheets are responding faster to climate warming than anticipated."

Rignot said scientists are now observing these climate-driven changes over a significant fraction of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the extent of the glacier ice losses is expected to keep rising in the years to come. "Even in East Antarctica, where we find ice mass to be in near balance, ice loss is detected in its potentially unstable marine sectors, warranting closer study," he said. "

Antarctica Snowfall Increase

The ice caps hold a special place in the cold hearts of the global warming advocates who are all too quick to insist that our ice caps are currently melting at an unprecedented rate. We suspect that they will not be particularly thrilled to learn that a paper has just appeared in Geophysical Research Letters entitled “A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850.” The article is by scientists with the British Antarctic Survey and the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada; the work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In case you think that the Desert Research Institute in Nevada would have little interest in Antarctica, recall from geography classes you’ve had that Antarctica receives little precipitation and is regarded by climatologists as a frozen desert.

Reference:

Thomas, E. R., G. J. Marshall, and J. R. McConnell, 2008. A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850. Geophysical Research Leters, 35, L01706, doi:10.1029/2007GL032529.

Global warming predicts an increase in snowfall in areas that had previously been extremely cold. This is for the simple reason that warmer air can hold more moisture. This is the origin of the old saying "it is too cold to snow".

Satellite measurements and other observations demonstrate pretty conclusively that the southern ice cap is losing mass. This is entirely consistent with increased snowfall, and both are expected outcomes of global warming. The same thing is happening on Greenland, btw.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Seconded. I don't understand why GW deniers can't get their head around this simple fact: Global Climate Change will be marked by CHAOS above all else. Extremes will be the norm. Given that energy is energy and must be conserved, if it's hotter here, it might just get cooler there. Only the increase in available energy would disrupt this. While that is happening, at any given moment, or any relatively short period of time, the Earth is dealing with only so much energy.

It must stand their hair on end when the realize the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation would bring a mini-Ice Age to Europe... but that climate change would march on...

Cheers

Nice editorial site you've found there. Why don't you get back to us when this is on the front page at http://realclimate.org?

The comments on the World Climate Report by Patrick Michaels seem to ignore the fact that precipitation increases as temperature warms. This is especially so for snow, as warmer air can carry more moisture from it's source to the the local where the snow falls. The Antarctic is very cold most of the year, thus little snow actually falls inland. The Antarctic Peninsula is further north of the main land mass and is both warmer and more exposed to the surrounding warm oceans. As temperature rises, it's quite reasonable to expect that the amount of snow fall would increases there.

For example, the WRC comment ends thus:

So while we’ve heard recent reports about Antarctica losing ice, here we again find evidence to the contrary, and then some, at least in these locations. Not only is there no evidence of melting at the Gomez site, snow is accumulating there at an amazingly high rate....

The implication is that the increase in the rate of surface accumulation implies that there is no loss in total mass at lower elevations. The site is located at 74S and 1400m elevation. Rignot's study reported of mass loss in glaciers at lower elevations, reflecting changes in ice flow as well as melt. The comment on the WRC does not refute Rignot's conclusions. In fact, I think Michaels (or whoever wrote this piece) is intentionally misinterpreting the data to spread disinformation about Climate Change. But, that's nothing new, they've been spreading propaganda like this for more than 10 years. That jrwakefield thinks the WRC link is meaningful just shows how successful these guys have been.

E. Swanson

Please don't feed the troll.

Anyone who wants to re-live JRWakefield's propaganda can re-read this thread. It's the same old, same old.

Just so we are clear on where this is coming from ...

"This popular web log points out the weaknesses and outright fallacies in the science that is being touted as “proof” of disastrous warming. It’s the perfect antidote against those who argue for proposed changes to the Rio Climate Treaty, such as the Kyoto Protocol, which are aimed at limiting carbon emissions from the United States."

That "About US" statement appears to be about 10 years past its due date.

Your first sentence is total BS.

We still have 92 years or "history" to experience before one can make any such conclusion. The major fact of the study of climate is that there is variation in weather as well as "normal" weather. Variation in the number and strength of hurricanes is also to be expected. And, there's the typhons in the Pacific Ocean, which also represent part of the picture, which you ignored. In addition to the El Nino oscillations, there's the other known forcings, such as the variation in the solar insolation (previously called the solar constant) and the impacts of the 18.6 year lunar cycle. Then, theres changes in ocean circulation in the form of the THC, which may be undergoing long term changes due to our addition of Greenhouse Gases to the atmosphere. One or two years of data does not prove a trend in climate.

With all due respect, I think you should stick to what you know, instead of pontificating about things which are obviously beyond your area of expertise. Science can be done by non-professionals, but it takes a lot of effort to actually do a good job. I think you should do a lot more homework before posting such wild claims on public forums in future.

E. Swanson

Your first sentence is total BS.

Ok. lets look at that:

The five biggest hurricanes of the Atlantic basin this century have already occurred:

Errr, of course the statement is true. The 5 biggest X of Timeframe Y would have already happened, as the 5 X'es are in the the past and any larger X'es are in the future, thus not knowable.

Unless someone has a time machine and has been holding out on us how peak oil turns out....

Didn't bother to read it, did you?

I would have said the six biggest.

People in that particular venue are so wrapped up in Katrina its not even funny, but they'll listen to well organized facts. The five biggest weren't selected in terms of air pressure, wind speed, or storm surge, but rather for their import - things very obviously changed at the beginning of this century, with storms appearing both earlier and later, running off to hit places that have never seen tropical cyclones in the past, and in general showing lots of signs of more energy in the system than has ever been before in recorded history.

I had to make a sharp cut sticking to storms that were obviously statistical outliers - which one would you suggest for the #6 position and why?

America is not the only place to have hurricanes. The steering winds that broke up the Caribbean hurricane formation conditions did not do so in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. We are still having very bad cyclonic storms in other areas.

SCT

It was a throw away, sarcastic line. The statement is true up to the total number of hurricanes that have occured this century. Say that number is 20. Then the 20 biggest this century have occured, and it does not matter what the size of the smallest is, it would be in the 20 biggest.

working link to Simmons story is:

http://www.texasmonthly.com/2008-02-01/feature2.php

Thanks. Fixed it.

“If we keep our head in the sand, we’ll be like Tulsa in 1965,” he says, referring to a city that, until the seventies, was more important in the world of oil than Houston."

My take. I bet in 1965 Tulsa plateaued oil production.

And Houston is floundering for the same reason.

Drunk driving woman laughs about killing bicyclist

TUCSON, Arizona (AP) -- A judge sentenced a woman to nearly the maximum prison term for negligent homicide after hearing a recorded jail conversation in which she made light of the bicyclist she killed.

She could have gotten as few as four years behind bars, but Superior Court Judge Michael Cruikshank sentenced her Tuesday to 10½ years -- one year shy of the maximum.

Cruikshank said he found a telephone conversation between Arrington and an unknown male friend, a week after L'Ecuyer was killed, to be "breathtaking in its inhumanity."

People like this are the precise reason why I don't ride more. There are far too many of this sort in this country, and I don't see that changing in the near future.

Stories like that are why I no longer visit the CNN site except to take screenshots of their "news of the deeply weird" section for later reference. Yeah, this one is sad and topical for Drum Beat, but overall they're just one step shy of the National Enquirer in terms of their depth, focus, and fact checking.

http://flickr.com/photos/avyakata/sets/72157603440806568/

The schizophrenia of CNN/MSM was evident yesterday
with screenshots of the DJIA and then back to actor deaths
and some "snowday email" which I refused to follow.

Watch this get worse.

Because both reasons for the Markets rally yesterday have
yet to happen. The rescue of the Monolines(Ambac/MBIA)
and the Stimulus Package.

The Money Quote:

``The urgency that we feel at home is now even more urgent as we see the impact of our markets on others,'' House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said."

You forget. It was also National Pie Day.

Yeah, I don't don't know what changed internally with CNN but they're no news organization anymore. They're just about as bad as Fox but in a different way. Fox reporting is one sided while CNN is no sided. It's totally vacuous. Anderson Cooper isn't/wasn't a bad journalist, but he's really become a stuffed shirt lately. How many stories can he do on the rivalry between Clinton and Obama? I think I'd go insane.

http://www.bikecircle.com/forums/racing/13823-clear-channel-djs-inciting...

disc jockeys at three stations made on-air comments they say encouraged drivers to throw bottles at bike riders or hit them with open car doors.

Yeah, that's from 2004. Clearchannel caught a lot of heat for that.

Yuppers. Always good to bring out an oldie but a goodie. What is interesting is how it was being repeated in 2006 as 'new news'.

There is this guy I know in Omaha who rode all year round when he was in college. He was a returning student in his late twenties, 6'2", 210, hockey player, kick boxer, etc. He has had people swerve at him, had bottles thrown, and in general people have taken their life into their own hands on a weekly basis.

Each situation needs individual attention - sometimes a 911 call with a plate, sometimes people would do this, then pull in and stop in some public place within his sight. I'd like to have been able to YouTube some of the etiquette lessons. He'd never actually hit them, so far as I know, but I think those he caught up to went away with the sense they were lucky people were watching. People do this driving fleet vehicles(!) and then lose their jobs. Every once in a while conditions are right and someone that size can stove in many body panels on a car over the duration of a long light. I started paying attention after he related this stuff to me and I've had a couple of instances where I've seen drivers misbehave with bicyclists - I get the plate, make the call, and casually line them up for a sobriety check & car search.