DrumBeat: February 26, 2008
Posted by Leanan on February 26, 2008 - 9:38am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil Rises Above $100 to Record Close After the Dollar Declines
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $100 a barrel to a record close in New York as the U.S. dollar fell to an all-time low against the euro, prompting some traders to invest in commodities as a hedge against inflation.... Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.65, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $100.88 a barrel at 2:48 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the highest close since trading began in 1983. Prices touched $101.06 a barrel today. Futures reached $101.32 a barrel on Feb. 20, a record intraday price. Prices are up 64 percent from a year ago.
Brent crude for April settlement rose $1.78, or 1.8 percent, to $99.47 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, a record close. Futures reached $99.75 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1988.
Worries grow for worse 'stagflation'
WASHINGTON (AP) - It's a toxic economic mix the nation hasn't seen in three decades: Prices are speeding upward at the fastest pace in a quarter century, even as the economy loses steam.Economists call the disease "stagflation," and they're worried it might be coming back.
Gazprom makes foray into coal-generated electricity
MOSCOW: Gazprom, the world's largest producer of natural gas, said Tuesday it acquired a major Russian coal company in an asset swap that extended Gazprom's sprawling domestic business empire into the electricity market.Gazprom's acquisition of Siberian Energy and Coal Company, the largest coal producer in Russia by volume, marks a major foray for Gazprom into coal. The move is part of a long-term industrial strategy to increase the use of coal in domestic electricity generation and home heating to free more natural gas for export.
StatoilHydro confirms blowout of 16 bln nkr Statfjord field revamp budget
OSLO (Thomson Financial) - Norwegian oil and gas group StatoilHydro ASA confirmed that cost overruns of the budgeted 16.1 bln nkr renovation of its Statfjord oil and gas field in the North Sea could amount to several billion crowns."It's correct. There has been inflation since the project was begun in 2005. A lot of this project is related to future production drilling which is impacted by higher drilling rig rates and inflation in the sector," said StatoilHydro communication chief Ola Morten Aanestad.
Italy ENI's interest waning in oil sands, CEO says
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (Reuters) - Italian energy company Eni's enthusiasm for the Canadian oil sands sector is waning, its chief executive said on Tuesday, citing high costs and environmental concerns.
PEMEX in Death Throes Amid Political Squabbling
MEXICO CITY (IPS) - Mexico’s state oil company, PEMEX, is broke, and the country’s crude oil reserves will run out in less than 10 years. But although local politicians agree on the diagnosis, few are proposing solutions, while recriminations, by contrast, are flying thick and fast.
US: Won't Be Easy to Collect $31B
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A U.S. Interior Department official said Tuesday that the government may have a hard time collecting as much as $31 billion in royalty payments for leases issued in the late 1990s unless a court decision that rejected the government's right to the payments is reversed.
Japan: Fuel cell experiment to start at 150 households in Fukuoka
FUKUOKA — The Fukuoka prefectural government said Tuesday it will start an experiment using fuel cells at 150 households in two housing complexes, which it claims will be the world's first example of setting up household fuel cell systems on such a scale, with 100 units in a single concentrated area.
U.S. govt has no plans to stop adding emergency oil
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite record crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, the U.S. Energy Department told Congress on Tuesday it had no plans to stop adding about 70,000 barrels per day of oil to America's emergency oil stockpile.Katharine Fredriksen, who heads the department's Office of Policy and International Affairs, told the Senate Energy Committee that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve should reach a record 700.7 million barrels of oil by the end of March.
Many energy experts and U.S. lawmakers are against boosting the emergency oil stockpile at this time, saying taking oil off the market pushes crude prices higher.
Democrat Jeff Bingaman, who chairs the Senate energy panel, said the government should actually withdraw oil from the stockpile to put more supplies in the market.
The depreciation of the US dollar has been closely bound up with the movement of oil prices, as world oil trade is typically denominated in dollars. Yet this relationship may now be under threat as the dollar continues to depreciate and the US economy tips into recession.
Shell Offered Air Permit for Rig in Beaufort Sea
(Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the biggest winner in an Alaskan lease sale this month, was offered an air- quality permit for a drilling rig in the Arctic's Beaufort Sea.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed a so- called ``minor'' permit to regulate air emissions from Shell's Kulluk floating rig offshore the Alaska coast, the agency said in a statement late yesterday.
The future is bright, the future is green
Conventional energy investments over the past 10 years have seen strong returns as global demand for fossil fuels has increased. The thirst for oil from emerging economies such as China and India has been a significant driver - and a reason why it broke through the $100 a barrel barrier this week - but so has the fact that existing oil reserves are declining faster than new ones are being discovered.One of the consequences of the rising price of fossil fuels has been to make alternative forms of energy generation such as wind and solar more economically viable and global concerns about climate change and energy security only look set to accelerate this trend.
Gazprom Threatens to Cut Ukraine Gas Supplies March 3
(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom, Russia's natural-gas exporter, threatened to cut supplies of the fuel to Ukraine March 3 if an accord on the repayment of debt isn't signed by next week.State-run Gazprom will reduce deliveries by 25 percent at 10 a.m. that day if Ukraine doesn't sign an agreement reached Feb. 12 on debt and future deliveries, spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said in an e-mailed statement today.
Opec to shun increase as US slows
A combination of economic slowdown in the United States and a seasonal fall in consumption will hit oil demand and Opec will not increase output when it meets next week, the producer group's president said on Tuesday.'I can tell you they are not going to increase production because there are plenty of stocks,' OPEC President Chakib Khelil told Reuters.
'Gasoline stocks are high, then we have a second quarter reduction in demand and with the economic situtation in the US, probably a recession, demand will definitely fall, maybe not by much.'
Venezuelan oil byproducts supply to the US down 23.8 percent
The downward trend the Venezuelan oil byproducts supply to the US recorded during 2007 remained unchanged in December and, in this way, annual average sales went down from 277,000 bpd in 2006 to 211,000 bpd in 2007, thus dropping 66,000 bpd or 23.8 percent.Consequently, falling oil byproducts shipments pushed down total Venezuelan hydrocarbon sales to the United States. Based on the monthly report published by the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, in 2006 Venezuelan crude oil and byproducts shipments to the Unites States totaled some 1.42 million bpd. In 2007, however, the figure declined 4 percent to 1.36 million bpd.
Nigeria: Petrochina Quits Bid for Shell's OML 125 Block
Few months after China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd (CNOOC Ltd) withdrew its bid for the Royal Dutch Shell OML 125, PetroChina, China's largest oil firm has also quit its bid for the same block.Both companies were told that their bids, at around $300 million to $400 million, were too low for Shell's nearly 50 per cent stake in block OML 125, the Beijing-based source familiar with the matter said.
Ice melt means spike in Coast Guard Arctic operations
Coast Guard officials say they have no official opinion about the human role in global warming — do carbon emissions worsen it, can its effects be slowed — but whatever the cause, there is water in the Arctic where there used to be ice. That means more ships can now use waterways that have long been frozen, and if they have trouble, the Coast Guard will get more calls for help.
Mexico's oil output falls, Pemex needs cash infusion
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico - Oil output in Mexico, the third-biggest supplier to the US, is declining, and the state company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) lacks the technology to explore for new reserves. For many the answer seems simple: more capital.But now that senators have begun debating ways to attain that capital – a top priority of President Felipe Calderón – resistance has mounted, particularly to the idea to allowing in private enterprise.
I feel sorry for the next president. Even as he takes his oath of office, the nation will be flying apart like a seized-up engine. Since the fiasco in finance is happening in lock-step with Peak Oil (and very likely because of it at a fundamental level) we can expect one of the distortions to take the form of oil shortages. These shortages will come not just from demand bottlenecks in a stressed-out world oil allocation system, but because exporting nations will start demanding payment in Euros or something besides the depreciating currency that reflects our disintegration, and we'll have a problem coming up with payments that amount to at least fifty percent more than we're used to shelling out.Once the US gets into serious difficulties with our oil supplies. every other sector of the economy wobbles, including especially the food-growing sector, which cannot function without copious amounts of diesel fuel and hydrocarbon-based soil "inputs." Americans will go hungry, and not just the "underclasses."
Nuclear provider targets oilsands
Alberta's oilsands industry faces a natural gas shortage by 2030 without new energy sources to offset gas use in oilsands expansions, the head of nuclear power giant Areva Canada Inc. said Monday.Speaking in Calgary, Areva CEO Armand Laferrere said continued oilsands development would consume virtually all of Canada's current natural gas supply -- some 92 per cent -- by 2030.
"You need to diversify," he said on the sidelines of the Canadian Energy Research Institute's natural gas conference.
Venezuela Official: Will Defeat Exxon In UK Court
Venezuela's oil vice minister said the country will find a way to defeat ExxonMobil Corp. in a U.K. court in coming days despite the company´s clout, and called the ongoing dispute with Exxon "not a big deal" for either party."We will not leave London cowing from a loss, because if Exxon wins it would set a bad legal precedent," Venezuela's Oil Vice Minister Bernard Mommer told local daily El Universal in an interview published Sunday. He recognized Exxon's clout as one of the world's most powerful oil companies but noted that the compensation case isn't that large in terms of money.
UK’s oil industry plea for more tax breaks
Britain's oil and gas industry is warning that, unless activity can be stimulated through improved tax breaks, the UK will miss the government’s North Sea production targets, resulting in more fuel imports, higher energy costs and lower tax revenues.
Nationalization Bug Prepares to Bite in Ecuador
Ecuador could arrive at an agreement with U.S-owned City Oriente to end its contract to produce crude oil in the Andean nation, Ecuador's Energy Minister Galo Chiriboga said Monday."It won't be possible to renew the contract because it is non-viable from technical and financial factors. We are analyzing the possibility of ending the contract by mutual agreement ..." Chiriboga told reporters.
South Africa: Mines under pressure amid energy crisis
The power crisis in South Africa has forced miners to partially close mines, curbed output and put jobs at risk, triggering threats of street protests by unions in the world's top precious metals producer.South Africa's key mining industry, a big foreign exchange earner and job creator, ground to a halt for five days last month as an electricity shortage became a national emergency.
Albania to Invest in Kosovo's Power
Tirana - Albanian Premier Sali Berisha says his government plans to be a major investor in the construction of thermal power plants in Kosovo."We have stated it before and I will restate it that we would like to be a major stakeholder in Kosovo's thermal power plants," said Berisha during a a joint press conference with the head of Kosovo's parliament Jakup Krasniqi.
Putin Pledges More Fuel For Tajikistan Emergency
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to help Tajikistan battle what the Central Asian nation’s leader called “catastrophic” cold weather that has left only the capital, Dushanbe, with regular power supplies.“There has never been anything like it in our country’s history,” President Emomali Rakhmon told Putin at the Russian leader’s residence outside of Moscow on Thursday. “In the east now it is minus 25 degrees.”
Orlando gas prices reach new high
The higher gas prices come just weeks before the busy spring-break period, when many families flock to the area's attractions and beaches. But tourism officials said they don't expect the extra costs to deter visitors."The only time we have seen gas affect tourism is when there was a shortage," said Danielle Courtenay, spokeswoman for the Orlando/Orange County Convention & Visitors Bureau. "It is something we constantly are watching."
South Dakota: Panel cuts Highway Patrol funding
PIERRE — A bill to restore a proposed $2 million cut in the Highway Patrol budget in the next fiscal year was gutted to nearly nothing Monday by a tightfisted House Appropriations Committee....The Highway Patrol budget is funded primarily by state fuel tax revenues, but those revenues have been weak and Gov. Mike Rounds ordered the $2 million cut.
Shanghai GM: embrace future with green strategy
On January 22, Shanghai GM, the sales champion in China's automobile industry in 2007, launched an all-directional green strategy with "Drive to Green" as the theme. Ding Lei, General Manager of Shanghai GM, said that a breakthrough in environmental protection and energy shortage was the prerequisite to auto industry's sustainable development. The "Drive to Green" strategy of Shanghai GM involves three aspects-green product, green system and green responsibility, which will provide China's consumers with green auto type with "better performance, lower energy consumption, less emission" through technological renovation, and play a more active leading role in the industrial chain, thus create a green ecological system in the industry through activating both the upper and the lower reaches.
Jeremy Leggett: Renewed energy
A recent German experiment shows that renewable energy, harnessed on a national scale, can indeed replace fossil fuels and nuclear power
Daimler's tiny city car turns heads, but it has more than its share of problems.
GOP should stop coddling Big Oil, make way for renewable energy
This week the House of Representatives will vote on the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act of 2008. This act would eliminate $18 billion in tax breaks for oil companies to help pay for extending renewable energy tax credits. If the House approves, we'll see if Senate Republicans can vote for good energy and environmental policy - or just vote for Big Oil again.
New York: Energy report offers more hot air than significant solutions
One of the dirty little secrets of renewable energy sources is that every one of them, to varying degrees, will drive the cost of energy up, not down. For you and me, and for business. That would be the real price for less reliance on foreign oil and fossil fuels generally, and for shrinking the carbon footprint that's turning our planet into a greenhouse.
Innovation Is the Only Scarce Resource
NJBIZ: It has become popular among lawmakers to introduce bills mandating the development of nonfossil-fuel power to meet our growing energy needs. Are the timelines they propose realistic?Carlson: They just don’t seem to realize the scale of the issue they are talking about. We have three fellows publishing a book called “The Cubic Mile of Oil.” One cubic mile of oil is the unit they came up with to convert all the confusing units of energy. One of the questions is how many units we are burning today, and the answer is three. And in 30 years that will be six. In order to convert one of the six cubic miles of oil to another power source would require the power generated by 50 atomic plants over 50 years. Are we doing that? No.
Which orange juice should I buy?
DRINKING 170 litres of water with breakfast would be ridiculous. You'd have your legs crossed all the way to work, which would be particularly problematic if you were doing the right thing by walking.But that's the amount that goes into manufacturing just one cup of orange juice, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation says. Citrus is a thirsty crop.
Then there's the fuel that goes into the tractors, pesticides, packaging and transport of OJ. In addition, orange production uses more pesticides than any other major commodity, the World Wide Fund For Nature reports. There's obviously more to choosing a juice than whether to go for the pulpy or the smooth stuff. There's a fair bit to weigh up if breakfast is to be an environmentally champion affair.
Are the days of easy-to-reach oil at an end?
Apart from a new price high, this week has been more of the same - oil prices have been high, and boy, are they looking to stay that way.But what people are talking about now is the one factor that may keep those prices in place.
And the words of the day are 'peak' and 'oil'.
Even in the UAE, where oil brings in the lion's share of the country's revenues, there is more than a little speculation about how much oil there really is.
Matt Simmons: Twilight In The Desert - The Risk Of Peak Oil
Matt Simmons has posted the slides from his presentation to the Minnesota House of State Representatives.
Oil sands freeze a no-brainer for Big Oil
Everybody loves a no-lose proposition. Some people make a career out of searching for them: the investor who pays $10 for stock in a company with $11 per share of cash in the bank; the acquisitive CEO who buys a struggling competitor, strips out the best asset and sells the rest at a profit. No-lose deals are hard to find, but the shrewd exploit them – and never let it be said that the big oil companies aren't shrewd.
Angola: Oil Production Reaches 1.9 Mn Barrels Per Day
Angola is since last week producing 1.9 million barrels of crude oil per day, thus moving from the previous 1.7 million until the end of 2007. Still, estimates indicate that by the end of this year the production should reach 2 million barrels a day.
Russia's Gazprom signs agreement to develop Iran's huge South Pars field
MOSCOW — Iran and Russia have signed a major energy deal.Russia's state-owned Gazprom reported an agreement to explore and develop energy reserves in Iran. Gazprom said it would work with Iranian companies to develop the South Pars field, regarded as the largest reserves of natural gas.
Plug-in cars could actually increase air pollution
The expected introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could cut U.S. gasoline use but could increase deadly air pollution in some areas, two reports say.That's because a plug-in's lower tailpipe emissions may be offset by smokestack emissions from the utility generating plants supplying electricity to recharge the big batteries that allow plug-ins to run up to 40 miles without kicking on their gasoline engines. Plug-ins, called PHEVs, are partly powered, in effect, by the fuel used to generate the electricity.
Fresh records for price of wheat
High-protein spring wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange rose by almost 25% to record levels on Monday.Kazakhstan has become the latest country to put export restrictions on wheat as it battles against inflation.
Russia and Argentina have already imposed similar export restrictions.
CHINA: Staring At Grain Imports
BEIJING (IPS) - With global food prices on an upward spiral, China is facing renewed fears that its growing demand for grain to feed the world’s largest population may lead to imports from international markets, driving prices higher and spurring further food inflation.The resurging "threat of China’s food security" may have induced more fatigue than alarm if it was not coming at a time of unprecedented scarcity of arable land, which is increasingly being converted to grow biofuels, and because of fresh challenges posed by global warming.
'Doomsday' seed vault opens in Arctic
LONGYEARBYEN, Norway - A "doomsday" seed vault built to protect millions of food crops from climate change, wars and natural disasters opened Tuesday deep within an Arctic mountain in the remote Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard."The Svalbard Global Seed Vault is our insurance policy," Norway's Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg told delegates at the opening ceremony. "It is the Noah's Ark for securing biological diversity for future generations."
Climate Critics Rattle Virgin Atlantic CEO
LONDON - When a Virgin Atlantic Boeing 747 took off from London's Heathrow Airport on Sunday, carrying a symbolic 25% load of biofuel blend, most eyes were on the airline's billionaire president Sir Richard Branson. He called the event a "historic occasion," warned that peak oil could hit in the next six years, and voiced his frustration that other airlines were not working hard to promote biofuels.But on the sidelines of the press conference, Steve Ridgway--the less well-known Chief Executive of Virgin Atlantic--was in a more thoughtful mood, voicing his concern over the pressures that had pushed the aviation industry into the environmental spotlight.
3rd artificial flood set for Colo. River
This is the third such test on the river since 1996, and it could end as the most controversial amid questions about whether the government has shirked its obligations to protect the canyon's natural resources.At issue is how to manage a structure that stores water and provides electrical power for millions across the West, yet has also damaged a complex ecosystem.
Indian tribes exercising water rights
GREAT FALLS, Mont. — For decades, ranchers and farmers across the West have tapped into rivers and streams on or near Indian reservations. Now, as drought conditions plague big parts of the region, they're concerned their access to those sources could dry up.Although the U.S. Supreme Court gave tribes the primary rights to streams on their reservations in 1908, until recently, 19 tribes in the West had not exercised those rights. This year, tribes in Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Nevada and California are on the verge of securing their claims.
Agnes B: fashion designer funds polar odyssey
PARIS (AFP) - Paris fashion designer with a conscience, Agnes B. was among thousands who massed on a seashore this weekend to give a hero's welcome to a sailboat that deliberately remained trapped in Arctic pack ice for almost a year and a half to research global warming.
UN climate head: US stand a `nonstarter'
NEW YORK - The U.N. climate chief on Monday welcomed statements by Bush administration officials that the United States would accept a binding international commitment to reduce global-warming gases. But he said their insistence that China and other developing nations do the same "is not realistic.""If it's a quid pro quo, then it's a nonstarter," said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the Bonn-based U.N. climate secretariat.
Global Warming Melts New Sea Lanes for Norilsk, ConocoPhillips
(Bloomberg) -- Norilsk, the world's biggest producer of nickel, is building its own shipping fleet to capitalize on the melting of the polar ice caps.The company ordered five reinforced cargo vessels that can plow through the waters north of Siberia as new sea routes open. Norilsk is spending at least 320 million euros ($467 million) to buy reinforced vessels rather than rent both freighters and icebreaker escorts.
The thawing sea "has enormous economic implications, and commerce is going to push this ecological zone to the limit," says Rear Admiral Timothy McGee, head of the U.S. Navy's Meteorology and Oceanography Command.



As the End of Suburbia (EOS) guys warned, food & energy prices are surging higher. Talking head on CNBC: “The big story for 2008 may turn out to be the scarcity and price of food.” Anyone care to speculate on when the US government will act to curtail food (especially wheat) exports?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-report-us-jan-ppi/story.a...
ECONOMIC REPORT
U.S. Jan. PPI rises 1% on energy and food
Year-over-year increase highest since 1981
As the EOS guys also warned, residential real estate has big problems, with continued discussions of the insolvent bailing out the insolvent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/26/us/26backlash.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnl...
Foreclosure Aid Rising Locally, as Is Dissent
By WILLIAM YARDLEY
Efforts to help imperiled homeowners have met resistance from people who consider the assistance undeserved.
So, what is the prospect for the future being materially different from what the EOS guys warned us about?
January foreclosures up 57%
I don't think it is fair to compare the value of last last year, the trouble started in the second half of 2007. How does the value compare to say last December?
I suspect there's a seasonal variation that makes that kind of comparison meaningless. Or at least quite difficult. January is probably a bad month. People have high bills, due to the holidays, and businesses often lay off their employees in December, at the end of the year.
But how many of these foreclosured / threatened homes were, are, actually occupied by families who in good (if misguided) faith entered into the American dream by contracting dastardly opaque-small-print mortgages, putting their down payments at risk?
And how many owned by people who were cynically flipping homes, investing there, rather than in the stock market, oil futures of whatever, as tangible assets tend to impress, and may seem easier to understand than financial products?
Did not the housing ‘boom’ or ‘bubble’ - the potential financial gains, deprive many Americans of owning a small home? That last question is polemical, goes beyond the first.
I haven’t a clue.
None. Nobody makes down payments any more. They paid nothing at closing. Paid nothing ever since. Families made money. It's the banks that were bankrupted.
I dont't think the holidays have much to do with the crisis. We are at a point where the economy is
getting worse and worse everyday and depending on how bad the next couple of months are will determine how long it will actually take for the economy to regualate itself.There is speculation that OPEC will try to change the currency of each barrel of oil to the EURO. If this were to happen it would create the collapse of the US economy and the Canadian economy because they are so closely linked.The cost of oil has to be regulated somehow because if not then people in the USA will seek an even greater defecit in addition to the foreclosure problem . USA has the most Co2 emessions across the world and I don't think they are ready for oil to reach 100% increase per barrel this year.If there is nothing done the economy will be stifiled and the unemployment rate would double or even triple. With the next presidental campaign I look forward to seeing Obama sponsoring programs, trying to look for other sources of energy. This will help the pollution crisis we have been facing and also have people less dependent on oil which will possibly reach $200/barrel. Car manufactures which employs about 1 million across the US can actually be innovative and try alternatives other then petrolum. Houses can be heated possibly through solar power or wind and his means more jobs created to help re-stimulate the economy.The current US government has put the citizens in a horrible economic position and if the price of oil is not regualted or the forclosure on homes people can only hope some sort of technological wave will hit!
Although 2007 saw foreclosures reach historic levels, the trouble began in 2006, when foreclosures were up 42 percent compared with 2005.
Just remember that we were starting from a very low level; lenders didn't need to foreclose when there were lots of buyers out there. Any increase from zero is substantial, on a percentage basis.
I would even go so far as to say it began a year earlier than that. The peak of the housing market occurred in July/August 2005. Incidently(?, NOT) coincident with a nasty surge in crude.
It was like watching dominoes after that as first investors bailed from properties, unsold inventories bulged and homebuilders slowed.
It took a while to hit the banks, but nope, not immune...
And, the collapse of commercial real estate is now gaining momentum...
FOCUS: Real Estate
Housing ills breed commercial flu
Prices for office and retail properties seen heading lower as financing dries up.
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080225/REG/712...
Nothing will change unless we change. Wasn't there a Dickens story that had that same plot line?
But let me sketch out what it would take to make things different:
$3,000 for one electric scooter per family.
$3,000 per family for aggressive conservation efforts around the house.
$1,000 per family to build a 250 square foot, intensive home garden capable of supplying 25% of calories for a family of four.
A ten year roll back of the Reagan/Greenspan social security tax hike, at least on the worker's portion of the contribution.
An aggressive light rail and electric jitney construction effort, equivalent to one-half of what we spend on highway construction each year.
Limits on new construction, or national changes to building and zoning codes, to encourage and subsidize transit oriented development.
Some of these things are easier than others-- but all of them can be done fairly quickly. We have done the first three in our family, and have reduced our gasoline consumption from over 1200 gallons a year to around 400, reduced the amount of produce we buy from out of state to near zero, and cut our natural gas bills by over 80% (okay, that took a GSHP, but still we did it). And with the exception of the electric scooter, everything else was made predominantly in the USA.
But we just have to change the attitude, beaten into us since we were kids, that faster and bigger is better.
$3000 for an electric scooter ? i cannot reasonably justify $700. the reason: battery replacement. the $700 model has an expected battery life of 3 yrs with a replacement cost of $ 160. that works out to about $0.10/ mile using my expected mileage. i didnt even try to estimate the $/mile amortization of $ 700.
i think i will walk.
More expensive? With an automobile at 20K and still costing .10+ per mile and rising?
It's quite a bit less for me and my wife who have switched to a one car, one scooter family. The scooter is for trips to work and around town. We even manage groceries. I guess it's a bit easier for me since I'm a writer and work from home. The car is only for long trips.
As for homeownership. Well, we live in a multilevel and energy really is pretty efficient. The one thing I'm looking at right now is a deck garden. The deck is actually pretty large and I could get about 120 square feet out of it and still have space. Gardens, I know, can be a bit heavy so we're looking at putting together a gird for it. All in all, not too much heavier than a waterbed and spread over a larger area.
I know this sounds silly, but I've put together a little emergency stash of food + water. 3 weeks and building right now. Mostly pasta, dried fruits, jerky, hard tack, MREs when I can get them and vitamins to fill in the gaps.
"More expensive? With an automobile at 20K and still costing .10+ per mile and rising?"
your statement implies an electric scooter as a replacement for an automobile.
i am not making a comparison with a new automobile, only for a $700 electric scooter to reduce auto travel. i cannot expect to fully replace an auto with a scooter.
other's results may vary. for me, it works out to a toy, nothing more.
the irs is using $0.485/mile for the cost of operating an auto, including amortization, fuel and maintenance.
IT would also take Major changes , or even wholesale abolishing of most zoning laws. I can only imaging the resistance one would meet when he brought in plans to build an earthship type home, or micro home, to the building department. Half the streets run north-to-south. South facing homes would be too much for them to "handle".
Congratulation, OP. I hope your friends and neighbours take note and follow your example. Get out there and beat your drum because this is truly how change happens.
I firmly believe that if all of us made a conscious effort to do better, collectively, we could make a world of difference; there's so much waste and inefficiency in virtually everything we do that a 20, 30, 50 or even 80 per cent reduction in energy use is not impossible if we simply put our minds to it. Granted, some home improvements such as a GSHP require significant capital investment and would be unaffordable to many of us, but even relatively inexpensive measures such as caulking and weather stripping, outlet gaskets, 3M window kits, loft insulation, pipe wraps, duct sealing, low-flow shower heads, CFLs, etc. -- combined with very modest behavioural changes -- can result in significant energy savings and generate positive cash flows from literally day one.
As mentioned here before, the previous owners of our home, a family of four, consumed 5,700 litres of heating oil a year and something in excess of 14,000 kWh of electricity. Insulation, air sealing and a new boiler got that down to 2,100 litres and a $2,100.00 ductless heat pump has since dropped it to 830 litres, for an overall savings of 85 per cent. With the addition of the heat pump our electricity usage took a bit of a hit but, even so, we're still running about 4,000 kWh below that of the previous occupants. A heat pump water heater could easily cut our remaining fuel oil consumption in half again and after subtracting the savings as the result of not having to run our dehumidifier six months of the year, the added electricity costs would be minimal. And with heating oil now retailing locally for $0.979 a litre ($3.68 U.S. gallon) the payback would be no more than three to four years (it would be a lot less if we were heavier users of hot water but, as it is, standby and boiler losses account for over half the fuel oil related to our DHW needs).
So, again, I would encourage you to share your experience with others so that they too may benefit from what you've achieved. As more of us become aware of what's doable and how simple and inexpensive many of these measures can be, words will translate into action.
Cheers,
Paul
HiH, what is your total household energy consumption from all sources in BTU/square feet/year? I am running at around 80,000 BTU/sf/yr, down from about 110,000 before building envelope improvements. Heating Degree Days average about 6400/year where I live near Boston.
Hi Calorie,
Halifax is approximately 7,800 HDD F and my home is a 40-year old 2,500 sq. ft. Cape Cod. I estimate our heat loss to be 320 BTUs per degreee F when temperatures drop below 13C/55F; above 13C, internal gains for lighting and appliances and whatever passive solar that might be available are generally sufficient to maintain the house at a comfortable temperature.
Of the 830 litres of heating oil used each year, roughly 475 litres can be allocated to DHW production -- it varies by season, but an average of 1.3 litres/day is a pretty safe bet. The remaining 355 litres (94 U.S. gallons) can be attributed to backup heat and at an AFUE of 82 per cent, net heat gain is approximately 3,113 kWh/year or 10.6 MM BTUs. In the first year of operation, the heat pump consumed an estimated 3,946 kWh of electricity and provided us with 9,672 kWh or 33 MM BTUs of heat. Taken together, that's 43.6 MM BTUs/year and divided by 2,500 sq. ft. that translates to be 17,450 BTUs/ft2 or 55 kWh/m2. That year I started on high blood pressure medication that forced me to keep the house between 22C and 25C (I was constantly cold no matter how warmly I dressed). By the following year, I was better adjusted and indoor temperatures averaged between 17C to 20C. That trimmed heating demand in the winter of 06/07 by about 6 MM BTUs, so our heat loss ran closer to 15,060 BTUs/ft2 or 47.5 kWh/m2. This year has been colder than the past two and I have been keeping temperatures a little higher, so I expect 07/08 will fall somewhere between these two numbers.
In addition to the 830 litres of heating oil and 10,400 kWh of electricity, we use approximately 90 litres/24 U.S. gallons of propane a year to operate our cooktop, dryer and BBQ (we also have four gas fireplaces but they're only used for emergency heat in the event of an extended power cut or on the rare social occasion; the pilot lights are never left on).
A record of our fuel oil usage can be found at: http://www.datafilehost.com/download-70a9bfb1.html
A summary of our heat pump performance as of today can be found at: http://www.datafilehost.com/download-afa6cd48.html
Cheers,
Paul
Paul,
This is amazing detail! You set the grading curve pretty high for domestic data collection and analysis :-)
We just replaced our windows and siding, and in the process added another R8 with foil-backed isocyanurate panels. The house is drastically more comfortable and uses less heat.
Getting to your thermodynamic analysis (BTU/sqft) is my holy grail. If I can figure it out will post here. I am using as a textbook "Solar Engineering for Thermal Processes" which someone here recommended a while back and it was a great recommendation.
Best regards,
NR
Thanks, NR. I never thought my fuel oil consumption was all that low until my service provider politely asked that I take my business elsewhere. This particular company charges a few extra cents per litre but, in return, offers 24 hour emergency service, an annual tune-up/cleaning and a price protection cap at no extra charge. Unfortunately, due to my declining usage they can't realistically recover the extra cost of these premiums so, as a compromise, I suggested they service my boiler once every three years and, happily, they agreed. I do feel genuinely sorry for this company because I understand a growing number of their clients are discretely buying heating oil from local discounters just to save a few bucks while at the same time expecting (and receiving) all the same benefits from this full-service company as before. This is a small, employee owned firm and their service truly is outstanding and it annoys me to see them abused in this manner; given the razor thin margins in this industry and declining sales due to fuel switching and demand destruction, these additional lost sales must hurt even more.
Anyway, there's nothing magical about what I've done. I've caulked and sealed to the best of my abilities; upgraded the insulation in the exterior walls (R6 to R22) and attic (R6 to R60); insulated the basement walls (R0 to R22); replaced all operable windows/storms and doors with Pella Architectural series, low-e/argon units (R1.8 to R3) and added double window kits to the fixed windows and wooden storms that remained (R1.8 to R3.6); and replaced the original oil-fired boiler and oil-fired hot water tank with a new, integrated system and Tekmar control. This slashed about 3,600 litres/950 U.S. gallons off the bill and the ductless heat pump took us down another 1,100 litres/290 U.S. gallons to where we are today. As mentioned, with a heat pump water heater, we should be able to slice another 450 to 500 litres and simply leave the boiler turned off except for the three or four weeks in the year when the heat pump can't keep up on its own. With that, we're looking at something in the order of 350 litres or less than 95 U.S. gallons/year.
Cheers,
Paul
After suggesting several times the idea of a "winter apartment" within a larger house, we have moved to a 3000 sf factory loft apartment in upstate New York (cold!). The loft has so many windows and high ceilings that it is impossible to heat, although it does pretty well with passive solar on the sunny days. Inside this loft is a 500sf (or so) separately-insulated "apartment" consisting of a bedroom, kitchen, bathroom and office (no living room). This is heated, most of the time, with a single 1500W electric heater in the kitchen, plus another 400W heater under the desk in the office. There are still some things that could be done, particularly adding insulated curtains not only to exterior windows but interior windows as well (didn't get to it this year).
No air conditioning, dehumidifiers, etc. I'm aiming for 40kwh/day in the winter and 10kwh/day in the rest of the year, for a total of about 6,650 kwh/year.
I now work in the office, cutting my commute time (from 12 months ago) from 3 hours/day to zero. There is a bank, grocery store and post office within a 3 minute walk. We are going to plant a vegetable garden in the spring, although this is something of a hobby considering the profusion of organic farms in the immediate area.
I now work in the office, cutting my commute time (from 12 months ago) from 3 hours/day to zero.
Hi EG,
Wow, that's a mighty impressive savings in terms of fuel consumption, time and operating expense. I also work from home and I can easily walk wherever I need to go, so on the few occasions when I do need to use my vehicle (e.g., when picking someone up at the airport) I often discover my battery has gone completely dead (which reminds me I should head out to the garage and hook-up the battery charger now because if this keeps up, my battery won't be long for this world). In my case, it's a leisurely five minute walk to the library and perhaps another three minutes to all the shops.
Cheers,
Paul
Suburbanite = Dinosaur!
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime
I have long thought that a century from now, "suburb" will have become the English language equivalent of "favela"
olepossom,
Give us some details about your garden. I'm really interested in a small footprint garden that can supply as much as 25% of calorie needs.
You have to use every space you can for food, and think of landscaping as another opportunity for food production. We have a fifth of an acre lot, with about a quarter of that taken up by the house, the sidewalk, compost pile, pathways, etc. We have two long (18 by 6 feet) bed gardens for veggies: tomatoes, lettuce, squash, beans, etc. We use a sort of french intensive method, to plant things nearly right on top of each other. We stack as much stuff on trellises and frames as possible. I haven't had any success with pumpkins that way, but we are trying. We have a large cold frame, about half the size of one of the raised beds, so we get to start everything three weeks early. We have a "hedge" of a dozen dwarf apple trees in the front yard, and blueberries and elderberries down one side of the house, and hazelnuts and greens down the other side. We put strawberries and tomatoes in pots whereever we can, but the strawberries have never done well for us. We have a potato plot in the back yard, and someday, if I can figure out how, we are going to plant half of the front yard in wheat or some other grain, perhaps in undulating waves for landscaping effects.
We can do pretty well, particularly with the tomoatoes and potatoes, calorie wise.
I'm keeping a better journal this year on how we are eating, so maybe by December I'll have a precise number of how much we bought in calories, and how much we produced ourselves. Our purchases are mostly flour, couscous, rice, sugar and dairy products.
Very good stuff. Thanks. A few more questions come to mind:
- What part of the country are you in?
- Do you have any issues with shade from trees or the house reducing available sunlight?
- How many years have you been doing this?
- Any problems with squirrels, deer, etc. getting to it before you do?
I hope we will see you occasionally posting an account of how things are going.
Thanks again.
Nobody loved Cassandra-- Wikikpedia