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DrumBeat: March 4, 2008
Posted by Leanan on March 4, 2008 - 9:40am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Nuclear cannibals: Nuclear power will feed on itself
Nuclear energy production must increase by more than 10 percent each year from 2010 to 2050 to meet all future energy demands and replace fossil fuels, but this is an unsustainable prospect. According to a report published in Inderscience's International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy and Ecology such a large growth rate will require a major improvement in nuclear power efficiency otherwise each new power plant will simply cannibalize the energy produced by earlier nuclear power plants.Physicist Joshua Pearce of Clarion University of Pennsylvania has attempted to balance the nuclear books and finds the bottom line simply does not add up. There are several problems that he says cannot be overcome if the nuclear power option is taken in preference to renewable energy sources.
OPEC Could Be Powerless To Cool Crude
"OPEC has been under a lot of pressure to increase its output," said Lawrence Poole, analyst with Global Insight, adding that he expected the cartel to freeze production on Wednesday. "But the problem is that for the first and second quarters, you usually tend to see demand fall slightly."Even if OPEC does decide to turn on the taps, argues Poole, the race into commodities like crude oil will be far from tamed. Crude prices hit a record high on Monday, just shy of $104 per barrel, with the U.S. dollar's unprecedented weakness fueling investment in safer commodities like gold and oil.
"In our opinion, oil will go as high as the dollar goes low," said Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey. "Name your target."
Bush Warns OPEC on Energy Prices
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush is chiding OPEC for failing to pump more oil as energy prices soar and the U.S. economy slumps.After an Oval Office meeting Tuesday with Jordan's King Abdullah II, Bush said the OPEC countries should understand the consequences of high energy prices. Bush said it's a "mistake to have your biggest customers' economies slowing down as a result of higher energy prices."
Imports from Latin America may help US meet energy goals, study finds
OAK RIDGE, Tenn. -- Latin American nations could become important suppliers of ethanol for world markets in coming decades, according to an Oak Ridge National Laboratory study released recently.The report, “Biofuel Feedstock Assessment for Selected Countries,” presents findings from research conducted in support of a larger study of “Worldwide Potential to Produce Biofuels with a focus on U.S. Imports” by the Department of Energy. The ORNL study highlights the importance of Brazil’s dynamic sugarcane industry in future world trade in fuel ethanol.
Speculation Adds to Oil Price Surge
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Market speculation on energy prices may have added as much as 10 percent to crude oil costs and the peak may be yet to come, a top Energy Department official said Tuesday.Guy Caruso, head of the department's Energy Information Administration, told a Senate hearing that supply and demand would suggest a price of about $90 a barrel.
Will global warming increase plant frost damage?
Widespread damage to plants from a sudden freeze that occurred across the Eastern United States from 5 April to 9 April 2007 was made worse because it had been preceded by two weeks of unusual warmth, according to an analysis published in the March 2008 issue of BioScience. The authors of the report, Lianhong Gu and his colleagues at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and collaborators at NASA, the University of Missouri, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, found that the freeze killed new leaves, shoots, flowers, and fruit of natural vegetation, caused crown dieback of trees, and led to severe damage to crops in an area encompassing Nebraska, Maryland, South Carolina, and Texas. Subsequent drought limited regrowth.Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are believed to reduce the ability of some plants to withstand freezing, and the authors of the BioScience study suggest that global warming could lead to more freeze and thaw fluctuations in future winters. This pattern is potentially dangerous for plants because many species must acclimate to cold over a sustained period. Acclimation enables them to better withstand freezes, but unusual warmth early in the year prevents the process. A cold spring in 1996, in contrast to the 2007 event, caused little enduring damage because it was not preceded by unusual warmth.
Oil Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record Set in 1980
Capping a relentless rise in recent years, oil prices hit a record high during the day on Monday, then pulled back to close below the record.The day’s highest trading price, $103.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, broke the record set in April 1980 during the second oil shock. That price, $39.50 a barrel, equals $103.76 today, when adjusted for inflation.
US urges oil producers to keep market 'well supplied'
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The White House urged OPEC to keep world markets 'well supplied' ahead of the cartel's production meeting tomorrow.Spokeswoman Dana Perino declined to comment specifically until OPEC formally announces a decision, with record oil prices sparking consumer calls for increased production.
But she reiterated past US appeals that 'oil producing countries should work to keep the markets well supplied, and right now we have extremely high demand and tight supply, it's worldwide demand.'
For Qatar, relations with West are a balancing act
DOHA, Qatar: For Sheik Hamad bin Jasim bin Jaber al-Thani, Qatar's prime minister and chief diplomat, it's natural to play host to the U.S. military while sharing one of the world's largest natural-gas fields with Iran.Qatar's royal leadership has learned to balance contradictory political interests as a means of national preservation for the tiny country. Saudi Arabia, a kingdom friendly to the United States, looms on Qatar's western border, and Muslim clerics rule Iran just across the Gulf.
BP to stay in Sakhalin project despite move to temporarily stop drilling
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - BP PLC will remain in the Sakhalin project in Russia despite the joint venture's decision to temporarily stop drilling work on the gas fields.
Qatar Shell GTL plant to start 2010 - Attiyah
VIENNA (Reuters) - The first train at Qatar's gas-to-liquids plant will start in 2010, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Tuesday.The Pearl GTL plant to make super-clean fuels is Shell's largest foreign investment and will be the world's largest such plant. Spiralling costs have taken the price to $18 billion from an original budget of $5 billion.
PetroChina Eyeing Singapore As Refining Base
HONG KONG - China's largest oil firm, PetroChina, is reportedly planning to build a multibillion-dollar refinery in Singapore, seeking an overseas production base to meet its home country's rising energy demand.
Vehicle Sales Fell by 10% Last Month
DETROIT — Sales of cars and trucks in the United States fell 10 percent in February as oil prices climbed past $100 a barrel and worries about a recession rattled consumer confidence.
Outlook '08: Biofuel to drive record coarse grain demand
The US demand for feedstock for ethanol will ensure that worldwide demand for coarse grains remains at record levels, according to ABARE.The forecaster has predicted last year’s production and consumption records will again be smashed as farmers clamour to get a piece of the high prices, all driven by the US hunger for corn.
Outlook '08: Biofuel to drive up sugar prices also
The worldwide demand for sugar continues to be very strong, thanks increasingly to biofuel production.Add a reduction in beet production in Europe and you have an estimated 11pc increase in sugar price to US13c a pound for this current financial year, according to ABARE.
The strength in this price has surprised the economists as it comes despite a 17pc increase in global production this year.
Helping developers map out renewable energy source
Remember the thrill of checking out your house from outer space with Google Earth? Now a Seattle company wants you to know whether there's enough wind to power it with renewable energy.3Tier, a weather-consulting service geared toward renewable-energy developers, is expected to release a global wind map, available free on the Web.
Tesla: Little electric roadster that could
Tesla's groundbreaking distinction is under its carbon-fiber skin. The $98,000 Tesla is the first production high-performance electric car. It is powered entirely by electricity, a plug-in that will never use a drop of gasoline. And it's billed as being able to go 221 miles in mixed city/highway driving on a full battery charge.
Rush of investors to oil costly for all
The surge of mainstream investors into commodities is driving record crude prices - and we're all feeling the pain.NEW YORK (CNN) -- The economy is stumbling, energy supplies are rising, yet oil prices are hitting new records. What's going on here?
Oil's surge to an all-time high of nearly $104 a barrel Monday is the latest evidence that speculative investment flows are driving crude prices more than physical supply and demand for the commodity.
"This has gone beyond reason," said George Littell, an analyst with Groppe, Long and Littell in Houston. He believes oil should be trading in the range of $60 a barrel.
Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said the oil-price gusher "has more to do with the turmoil in the credit markets and the weak dollar than it does with the flow of oil in and out of refineries.""This time the cause and effect isn't the fall of the shah of Iran," said Yergin, author of "The Prize," a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of oil. Instead of OPEC, oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez or even the supply and demand for oil, Yergin said, "the people who are driving this bus are in the financial markets."
The world’s food situation is bleak, and shortsighted policies in the United States and other wealthy countries — which are diverting crops to environmentally dubious biofuels — bear much of the blame.
Australia wheat crop seen doubling, more iron ore
CANBERRA (Reuters) - The wheat crop in Australia, the world's second biggest exporter, could double this year to near its biggest ever, a top government body forecast on Tuesday, helping ease anxiety about a world shortage of staple grains.It also predicted that thermal coal exports would rise by the most in seven years and that shipments of iron ore, the country's biggest earner, could climb by more than 12 percent for a second year in a row. With both prices now at record highs, commodity revenues are expected to rise by 30 percent, it said.
Outlook '08: Wheat's perfect storm to continue
The perfect storm that has led to the record increases in wheat prices over the last 12 months is set to continue virtually unchecked, according to Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics (ABARE).
From wheat to tea, inflation hits hard
In Pakistan, the prohibitive price of tea became an election issue; Mexican housewives have rioted to protest the shortage of affordable tortilla; Swaziland is facing famine, even as it exports cassava to feed the rich world’s hunger for biofuel.Rising agricultural inflation, or “agflation”, is a global phenomenon that touches everyone, and almost every day it seems to intensify.
South Africa: Blackouts plunge PMI to 2003 level
Johannesburg - The purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a four and a half-year low of 46.4 last month, knocked by slowing demand and the power shortage, sponsor Investec said yesterday.The fall in the measure of manufacturing activity from 52.1 in January reflects fewer new sales orders and marks the first decline below the 50 mark, which separates expansion from contraction, since 2003.
Kenya: Food Reserves Won't Last Long
Agriculture PS, Dr Romano Kiome, says only 15 to 50 per cent of agricultural land had been prepared in the North Rift.Under normal circumstances, 50 to 80 per cent of the land in these areas would be prepared by this time of the year in readiness for planting.
Besides the post-election chaos, erratic weather and high prices of inputs have complicated the food status.
Ethanol changing future of consumers' gasoline needs
In the five minutes it takes you to read this column, the United States will consume 70,000 barrels of oil. According to the Energy Information Administration, we burn 6.2 billion gallons of oil in a single day. Our insatiable appetite for petroleum, which is both expensive and finite, has economists and scientists worried.Where will we turn when the oil wells run dry? When will the price of crude oil finally prove too expensive to run our cars, produce our plastics and manufacture our chemicals? In the debate over energy and carbon emissions, an unlikely hero has emerged in corn-based ethanol.
While the governor and others in Annapolis are demanding cuts in electricity consumption, there's a better way: increasing the supply through nuclear power.
MMS: Central GOM Sale 205 Nets More Than $2 Trillion in High Bids
The Minerals Management Service (MMS) has accepted high bids valued at $2,829,926,881 and awarded 683 leases to the successful high bidders who participated in Central Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Lease Sale 205. Funds from the total high bids will be distributed to the general fund of the U. S. Treasury, shared with the affected States, and set aside for special uses that benefit all fifty states.
Venezuela Gets OPEC's Ear, Secures Some Support In Exxon Row
Venezuela managed to make its battle with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) a point of discussion in this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, hoping for support in a commercial dispute that could set a milestone in conflict resolution between oil-rich nations and oil companies.Several ministers arriving in Vienna expressed support for Venezuela's position and agreed the Andean country's case against Exxon will be heard, though it's unclear what that would mean.
Jean Laherrere: Revisiting “The End of Cheap Oil"
The strongest argument in the article was the huge difference between the confidential technical backdated mean reserves and the published political current proved reserves as shown in Figure 1 for conventional oil. Nine years later, the updated data (Figure 2) confirms the trend we forecast, despite the fact that the political data now includes some unconventional oil (tarsands). Our guesses, indicated by the two arrows, were not too bad, despite the fact that the growth in political reserves was more than anticipated, thanks to the changed definition of oil. Figure 2 helps explain why many economists, who have no access to the technical data, are wrong; it is not bad analysis on their part, but bad data.
In Hungry Zimbabwe, Pet Food as a Priority
NORTON, Zimbabwe -- Meals come only once a day for Helen Goremusandu, 67, and the six children she is raising. With prices for the most basic food products increasingly beyond her reach, that daily meal often consists of nothing more than boiled pumpkin leaves, washed down with water.About a mile away, a Zimbabwean government grain mill is churning out a new product: Doggy's Delight. Announced by its creators in January, the high-protein pet food is aimed at the lucrative export market, one of the dwindling sources of foreign exchange in a collapsing economy.
Fears of a commodity crash grow
Crude oil has surged to $104 a barrel, yet US gasoline inventories are at the highest level in 14 years. Oil stocks have been rising for the last seven weeks, even though we are at the top of the winter season when inventories normally fall. The tsunami of pension money is beginning to distort the market for energy futures. Texas oilman T Boone Pickens said investment froth has pushed up prices by $15.This is not to downplay the powerful reasons behind the oil boom. Output has been flat for four years despite efforts by BP, Shell and peers to find new supplies, yet China's oil imports rose 14pc in 2007. The era of 'peak oil' is certainly with us. But it was with us a decade ago when oil prices fell to $10 a barrel.
Commodities on Fire: It's more than just a dollar implosion story
Despite the skyrocketing prices, the inventories of many commodities are lower than they were during the 2001 recession. Discovering, permitting, extracting and shipping natural resources can take years, even decades. It will take time to overcome the past two decades of massive underinvestment in resource exploration and development. This is why commodity bull markets can run 15 years or more before significant new supply brings prices back down. In addition this is the first commodity bull market with the specter of Peak Oil looming ahead, if not already knocking on the door. That alone can have huge implications in terms of supply, price, and future expectations of market behavior.
Hedge funds have new opportunities in global market: Experts
According to the Monaco-based Hedge Funds Research Institute (HFRI), the industry has grown rapidly, with global hedge fund assets now estimated to exceed $1.8 trillion, almost double from $1 trillion in 2005.Clarke said that long term macro trends - like demographic shift, climate change and peak oil production - are also expanding the opportunities.
Shallow Water Ahead for Panama Canal (audio)
The Panama Canal is the shortcut between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans. As the Earth's climate changes, the canal will face changes, too. It depends on rain, not seawater, to fill its locks, and changes in rainfall might mean the canal could run out of water.
Police bust copper theft racket
Victoria Police have cracked the state's largest copper theft racket, which they say is valued at more than $1 million.The copper wiring, believed to be stolen from a variety of locations including rail tracks, power stations and scrap metal depots, was destined for the Asian black market, police said.
Will these places simply devolve into slums with roving bands of thieves stripping building materials and other valuables from abandoned homes and formerly homeless drug addicts burning them down while trying to keep warm? They’ll probably be some of that especially if the housing crisis worseness (and it will) and the government continues to address it largely by bailing out banks.
Is Oprah Our Only Hope? Or, If Humanity Doesn’t Grow Up Fast, Can We Survive?
Eckhart Tolle has a new book out called “A New Earth.” Actually, it came out in 2005, but Oprah recently discovered it and put it on her list, which means instant best-sellerdom. (Though Tolle was doing quite well before Oprah’s endorsement.)The central question is this: Do we humans need to take an evolutionary step in order to continue to exist? It is not only Tolle who raises this question; many spiritual people have suggested we cannot survive unless we grow up.
Review: World Made by Hand by James Kunstler
World Made by Hand comes at a time when the subjects of high gasoline prices and soaring heating and electricity bills—as well as the looming energy shortages that are driving those high prices—are slowly starting to enter the realm of public discourse. The novel presents a view of what the world might look like not so many years from now, when the cheap flow of fossil fuels that keeps modern life running has dried up once and for all.
Ken Livingstone - Peak oil “opportunity” for London Mayor
Peak oil is not a threat but an opportunity to force through the policies needed to combat climate change, according to London Mayor Ken Livingston.
Why a Carbon Tax Would Hit Living Standards
All I have done is to apply "Austrian" capital theory to the proposed carbon tax. The Austrian school correctly see capital as a heterogeneous structure consisting of complex stages of production with a time dimension. From this they conclude that shortening the structure lowers living standards. This is something that Machlup lived through:Austria has a most impressive record in five lines: she increased public expenditures, she increased wages, she increased social benefits, she increased wages, she increased bank credits, she increased consumption. After all these achievements she was on the verge of ruin. (Fritz Machlup, The Consumption of Capital in Austria, Review of Economic Statistics, January 15, 1935).
Kjell Aleklett: Uninvited observations
I understand that the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) will not always be invited to speak at CERA Week (Cambridge Energy Research Associates annual conference in Houston), but if I had been invited I could have discussed the CERA 2006 forecast of future oil production.
Australia: Radical plan to drive cars from key roads
SPEED limits will be dropped on key routes, lanes removed and traffic lights changed to favour public transport and pedestrians under a new strategy for Melbourne's inner north to be launched by Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky today.Darebin Council's new transport plan — the first in Melbourne to explicitly give priority to trams, pedestrians and cyclists on key roads — could lead to the removal of clearways on some routes in a bid to discourage drivers.
US State Dept oks pipeline to ship oil from Canada
WASHINGTON, March 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department on Monday published approval of a presidential permit for the $5.2 billion Keystone Pipeline to ship crude oil from Alberta to U.S. Midwest.
Nigeria police: Foreign worker kidnapped
Gunmen attacked a highway construction crew and kidnapped a foreign worker Tuesday in southern Nigeria, police said, marking the first seizure this year of an expatriate worker in the restive oil region.
StatoilHydro Seeks Thrills In Brazil
LONDON - Five months after StatoilHydro became the world's largest offshore operator, the Norwegian, state-controlled oil and gas major has announced $1.8 billion worth of acquisitions in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico as it compensates for declining reserves in the North Sea.
Nigeria: Bwari Residents Protest Over Power Outage
Residents of Sabongari quarters in Bwari Area Council of the Federal Capital Territory at the weekend protested over constant power outage in their area.The group took to the streets carrying placards that had different inscriptions, condemning Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) for their failure to supply electricity for the past three months.
MEXICO CITY - President Felipe Calderon announced a 60-billion-peso ($5.6 billion) package of tax breaks, utility-rates discounts and spending programs Monday to help Mexico's economy weather the slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Poll: Mexicans split on possibility of private investment in oil sector
MEXICO CITY: Nearly two-thirds of Mexicans oppose foreign investment in state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, according to a poll published Monday, although less than half object to a similar role for private Mexican firms.
"Eat whale and save the planet" - Norwegian lobby
OSLO (Reuters) - Eat a whale and save the planet, a Norwegian pro-whaling lobby said on Monday of a study showing that harpooning the giant mammals is less damaging to the climate than farming livestock.
NANSEN G. SALERI: The World Has Plenty of Oil
Many energy analysts view the ongoing waltz of crude prices with the mystical $100 mark -- notwithstanding the dollar's anemia -- as another sign of the beginning of the end for the oil era. "[A]t the furthest out, it will be a crisis in 2008 to 2012," declares Matthew Simmons, the most vocal voice among the "neo-peak-oil" club. Tempering this pessimism only slightly is the viewpoint gaining ground among many industry leaders, who argue that daily production by 2030 of 100 million barrels will be difficult.In fact, we are nowhere close to reaching a peak in global oil supplies.
OPEC not moving to ease high oil prices
VIENNA, Austria - OPEC has virtually ruled out pumping more oil to ease record-high prices, key oil ministers signaled Tuesday on the eve of a cartel meeting.Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the 13-nation group is shying away from boosting production because of the U.S. economic slowdown, political turmoil in the Middle East and expectations of slackening global demand for crude.
Aramco Official Calls to Develop New Technologies
MANAMA, 4 March 2008 — Saudi Aramco’s operations chief challenged the world’s leading geoscientists to hone existing technologies and help create new ones to maximize oil reservoir recovery and take exploration activities to a new level of performance and sophistication. Khalid A. Al-Falih, executive vice president of operations, made the remarks Sunday at the opening session of the 8th Middle East Geosciences Conference and Exhibition being held over three days in Manama.
OPEC oil output to fall in Feb-Reuters survey
VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC oil supply is set to fall slightly in February because of lower output from Iran and Nigeria, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.OPEC's 12 members bound by output targets, all except Iraq, pumped 29.78 million barrels per day, down from a revised 29.89 million bpd in January, according to the survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts.
The drop reflects lower exports from Iran and supply outages in Nigeria. Some analysts said there were also signs that OPEC members were trimming output to prepare for seasonally lower demand in the spring.
Nigeria oil reserve to last 43yrs
Nigeria’s strategic oil reserve, put at 36.2billion barrels, is expected to sustain her for the next 43 years, statistics have shown.The statistics also show that the nation has the lowest reserve life span among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Gazprom set to cut gas supplies to Ukraine by another quarter
MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) - Russian natural gas giant Gazprom announced on Tuesday it would reduce gas supplies to Ukraine by a further 25% to half their normal level, due to an unresolved dispute over the country's debt.
Ukraine can cope with 50 pct gas reduction
"At the moment, the situation is not critical," Naftogaz spokesman Valentyn Zemlyansky told reporters. He said conditions were helped by sufficient reserves and mild weather.
Ukraine says it could cut Europe's gas
KIEV, Ukraine - Ukraine's natural gas company on Tuesday warned that if Russia further cuts its gas supplies, it could begin diverting shipments intended for western Europe.
Analysis: Russia, others eye Iran ties
While it has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution to contain and isolate Iran, Washington's increasingly factious relations with Moscow and record-high oil prices are beginning to ripple through the relations of the five Caspian nations, producing several developments that all point to the increasing failure of Washington's containment policy against Tehran. The Bush administration's rising hostility against former "Evil Empire" Russia and charter "Axis of Evil" member Iran has infuriated both nations and driven them closer together.
Venezuela's War Talk Suggests More Trouble For Andean Oil
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez raised the possibility of a war between Andean neighbors Sunday in a heightening of political tensions that may spell trouble for the oil industries of two OPEC member nations.
China's natural gas output to double in 10 years
BEIJING (Xinhua) -- China's natural gas output would at least double the present volume in the coming decade to reach 150 billion to 200 billion cubic meters, PetroChina Vice President Jia Chengzao said on Tuesday.
U.S. retail gasoline price nears record: government
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail gasoline prices rose closer to record levels last week, up 3.2 cents from the previous week due to higher crude oil costs, the government said on Monday.The national price for regular unleaded gasoline averaged $3.16, up 66 cents from a year ago and about a nickel away from the record $3.22 reached last May, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly survey of service stations.
Russia, China Block UN Iran Resolution
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Russia and China on Tuesday scuttled a Western attempt to introduce a resolution on Iran's nuclear defiance at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, diplomats said.The decision appeared to be the result of lingering unhappiness by the two world powers about not being informed earlier of plans for such a resolution.
Will dams again rise across the West?
SPOKANE, Wash. - The Western states’ era of massive dam construction — which tamed rivers, swallowed towns, and created irrigated agriculture, cheap hydropower and environmental problems — effectively ended in 1966 with the completion of Glen Canyon Dam.But the region’s booming population and growing fears about climate change have governments once again studying construction of dams to capture more winter rain and spring snowmelt for use in dry summer months.
Weather Channel Founder Blasts Network; Claims It Is 'Telling Us What to Think'
TWC founder and global warming skeptic advocates suing Al Gore to expose 'the fraud of global warming.'
EU nations voice objections to climate change plan
While most ministers and officials representing the 27 EU countries gave broad backing to a package of measures proposed by the European Commission, some warned it could lead to job losses and rising energy costs.The main split appeared to be between former Soviet-bloc states in eastern and central Europe -- traditionally heavy users of coal -- and older members.
UN warns of climate change in Mideast
CAIRO, Egypt - Climate change is likely to reduce agricultural production and exacerbate water shortages in the Middle East, threatening the region's poor, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization warned Monday.Many countries in the Middle East already suffer from a shortage of arable land and limited access to water necessary to irrigate crops. But climate change could bring higher temperatures, droughts, floods and soil degradation, according to a new report released by the agency.
Climate change's most deadly threat: drought
Events once considered anomalies, such as the current drought gripping metro Atlanta, could be commonplace and the kind of social mayhem witnessed during the aftermath of hurricane Katrina widespread. Globally, he points to the millions upon millions of people in Asia who rely upon fresh water emanating from glaciers in the Himalaya that are now disappearing and desert areas of Africa where drought events are foretelling larger disasters.The imperative for policymakers, he says, is a massive and unprecedented intervention on a global scale. Civilization depends on it.
It’s behind a pay wall, but the Wall Street Journal today on page C1 has a story entitled “Hard Assets an Easy Call?” containing charts of the run in oil and gold from 1978 to 1981, and then 2005 to 2008. The chart for the late 70’s shows a run-up, then sharp drop. The chart for 2008? No drop yet. But the title of the chart says it all: “Back to the Future.”
For those who are thinking that they have missed out on the oil bull market, I believe that this suggests that much of the “smart money” still believes that oil, and gold, will come back down, in the not too distant future. In other words, the piling-in hasn’t occurred yet.
There is a wonderful quote on page C2 from the Libyan oil minister; when asked if OPEC would stick to the status quo on production, he responded, “How can you do otherwise?” He tempered his remarks by saying that oil inventories were growing, but perhaps he was using “can” in the way my fourth grade teacher drilled us: “can” means having the ability; “may” indicates permission; “would” indicates intention. If OPEC could actually raise production, my teacher would have edited his comment to say: “Why would you do otherwise?” But perhaps not.
I note that Leanan has cited Nansen Saleri's piece on the op-ed pages of the WSJ. That is freely available. I think that the adage "you get what you pay for" applies.
Even CERA has only been bandying around 3-4 trillion, and we've all been considering that to be quite incredible. This must not refer to the planet Earth that actually exists, but rather to the SciFi one with the hollow core filled with abiotic oil.
Why stop at 2 out of 3? Why not assume that they can recover it all? We are in fantasyland here, after all.
One thing you will not find at all in this ridiculous article is any recognition that there is such a thing as EROI. Just how much energy does he think those advanced recovery techniques are going to require? (Answer: he doesn't think, and that's the whole problem with this article.)
Great news! Mr Saleri calls $100+ oil just a near-term obstacle.. You guys at theoildrum.com can obviously close shop now and we can all continue happy motoring for many decades to come!
I don't know what sort of drugs Mr. Saleri is ingesting to come up with those resource numbers, but if it makes your vision go that rosy, we could just distribute some of that stuff to make the problem go away.
And I thought CERA was insanely optimistic......
Lots of Acid and cheap Vodka
If you sift through all the spin and homage to The Holy Market, Saleri's article actually was kind of interesting. He's tacitly admitting we are already past Peak Cheap Oil - basically his supply argument is that there's a lot more $100+ oil than there was $20- oil. And his projected consumption increases run from 0% (i.e. we're already at peak) to 2% per year; is he assuming slow global growth, or increased global conservation/efficiency? His projection actually sounds like a more optimistic version of Stuart's bumpy plateau: we're already at an inflection point, where continuous increases in production are no longer possible, but we can still grow supply at a much slower rate and at much higher prices for a while longer.
Who saw Peter Jackson's King Kong?
I laughed the whole way through, it was just so completely over the top.. I haven't even stopped to decide whether it was a good movie or not.. it just made me giddy, running down a ravine under the legs of some great, stampeding Saurpods, because that was the safest place to hide from the Marauding Allosaurs..
Can a market economy really get powered by giddiness? 'You say there's less?! Well now, I'll tell you how there's really MUCH, MUCH more!!' Wow, what a feeling I get, just saying that out loud!
I guess my take-away is that it's easier to print an article that basically says YES, than one that says NO. I could keep saying NO, and not get heard (there's a place in the world for the angry young man), or I could find the YES component on my side of the court. Back to that Kayaking analogy.. focus on the water you want to ride, not the rocks you are trying to avoid.
"There's no greatness without audacity." Oscar Wilde
Bob
The old adage about reserves not being the same as production capacity remains true.
There are some projects booked, but not completed that will dissapoint. A case of one Australian project that dissapointed was published by the U.S. EIA:
"In July 2006, Woodside brought online the Enfield project. However, while the project was planned to have reached 100,000 bbl/d, output peaked at just 74,000 bbl/d, before dropping to 10,000 bbl/d due to water and sand in one of the main wells. Woodside has estimated that production from Enfield will average 50,000 bbl/d throughout 2007."
Numerous projects are years late, over budget, and might not produce as much as planned. Some oil companies faced higher government taxes and tarrifs, derivatives losses, and rising production costs. Venezuela and Ecuador have been leaning more towards Marxist policies stiffling foreign investment there. It is probable nationalized oil holdings there might not be able to retain enough internal capital to generate investment needed for large scale expansions. These companies were being tapped as sources for funding everything else the people needed.
As one should beware of becoming biased, this is the other side of the Australian oil story from the United States EIA:
Australia produced more than 562,000 barrels of oil per day in 2006. (EIA)
"In 2008, BHP Billiton has plans to bring online its Stybarrow field (80,000 bbl/d), while Woodside is planning to bring its Vincent field (100,000 bbl/d) online. In addition to new projects, Santos increased production at its Mutineer-Exeter project by drilling the first of three new wells on the fields. The first well increased production by 20,000 bbl/d to 55,000 bbl/d. Once all three wells are drilled, the Mutineer-Exeter project is expected to have production levels between 70,000 bbl/d -90,000 bbl/d."
In addition to its bumper wheat crop Australia might see its oil position improve in the near future.
The WSJ (Wall Street Journal) has a Forum page for responses to the outrageous Saleri piece at http://forums.wsj.com/viewtopic.php?t=1638&
I encourage someone with more command of the facts than myself to submit a response there.
Question: Why is Mr. Saleri spreading such nonsense and misinformation? Who gains? All I can figure is that oil companies stock prices will remain high if investors don't understand that oil companies will be under stress to maintain production.
It all seems very similar to how tobacco companies attacked science on smoking, and then oil companies attacked the science on global warming.
Why? It is pretty well known that one thing the Saudis (and remember that Saleri worked (works?) for ARAMCO) really fear is that oil importing nations will get really serious about conservation and renewables, and thus permanently reduce the demand for and drive down the price of their exports. Thus, anything FUD they can spread to discourage investments from being made in renewables & conservation, so much the better for them.
In other words, this piece is pure propaganda & disinformation.
So much for the reputation of the paper that printed it.
Please let us not descend into another disgusting greed fest over how to profit on the misery and death of others.
Money = energy.
Those with more of it than they possibly need, and/or who are relentlessly pursuing more ARE THE PROBLEM.
it's been debated here in the past but the basic gist is this. money != energy because money is a poor measure of energy.
Money is a representation of stored energy and resources.
And money is a poor measure of those energy and resources, but that's what we tend to use in the practical, day-to-day world.
Is it just me, or are other people absolutely sick of the "speculators have unreasonably driven up oil" articles. Hey big guy, stop typing and put your money where your mouth is. Go open a commodities account, and short oil back down to its "reasonable" 60 dollar level (or was it 30 dollars, I can't ever keep track). This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!!!. Think how much money you'll make. Put $7500 down, and reap 44,000 in profits--why not buy twenty? In fact, it's such a sure thing that you probably don't even need a cash reserve, because there's absolutely no way these insane prices could possibly go higher, right? Either put up or STF up! --rant over, thanks for listening
I think the whole "It's the speculators' fault" mantra rather ammusingly ironic. For several years now, there's been chanting about the need for more investment in oil and gas. Well, that's what's happening; it's just that the "investing" isn't in material infrastructure, etc., for the most part. My observation is that hot money will go where it can make the greatest, quickest return. But the Dotcom and Housing Bubbles weren't scarce commodities rapidly being consumed by "real" economies on growth tears, which makes the commodities boom qualitatively different from others as there are REAL limits on resource quantities. In this regard, I think it would be of more than mere interest to also display the price of coal underneath oil.
Yes, the massive influx of investment capital into the oil sector does press the question as to why the oil industry is not taking advantage of that capital to actually invest in new megaprojects? Isn't it about getting to be "put up or shut up time"?
In the Texas/Lower 48 article, we (Khebab & Brown) warned (using production data through 2005) that Saudi was on verge of a long term production decline. In the second article, we show 2006 and estimated 2007 Saudi production data. It may be a coincidence, but the fact remains that Saudi Arabia has shown two years of annual production declines at about the same stage of depletion (based on our models) at which the prior swing producer, Texas, started declining.
We shall see what happens in 2008.
In any case, in my opinion, CERA, ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco, et al, are giving consumers the worst possible advice at the worst possible time---basically party on dude, because we don't have to worry about finite fossil fuels for decades.
The Texas and North Sea case histories are interesting. Both regions were developed by private companies, using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling. Texas, which peaked in 1972, has declined at about -4%/year. The North Sea, which peaked in 1999, has declined at about -4.5%/year (crude + condensate in both cases).
Jeffrey J. Brown
Texas and the Lower 48 as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World (May, 2006)
http://www.energybulletin.net/16459.html
A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters (January, 2008)
http://www.energybulletin.net/38948.html
WT, thanks for the post and links...
I have a question about 'the advice Exxon Mobile, Saudi Aramco, et al, are giving consumers to party on'... What would be the outcome if this group, all invested in the ever expanding capitalist model, gave the opposite advice, ie, conserve, power down, stop the party?
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/07/net-oil-exports-and-iron-triangl...
Net Oil Exports and the “Iron Triangle” (July, 2007)
That is a more difficult question than is implied, and really depends on how difficult you think it is to 'come off oil', as the immediate result would be to send prices sky high, therefore maximising your returns on what you know to be a limited resource, just so long as it was not quick and easy to substitute.
What I imagine is happening now is a game of chicken, where no-one wants to admit that their own reserves are low, if everyone else is still denying it, as that way you loose influence and still don't get a substantially higher price.
I can see things switching quite suddenly to one where all the oil producers are talking up shortages and so maximising their yields that way, whilst hopefully misdirecting substitution efforts into entirely unrealistic alternatives.
Well and good, DaveMart, but the real problem with admission by governments that we are 'coming off oil' is that it means an end to a continually expanding economy, at least in the short term, and probably forever unless some substitute for FFs is found. By substitute I mean something that can be put in the tanks of vehicles currently in use, not a switch to sustainable energy requiring change in peoples daily lives. The public is not ready to hear such a message and the politicians that delivered it would be ex-politicians in short order. imo we will stay on the present course untill the problem of limited FFs and ever expanding populations become obvious to almost everyone...and no 'official anouncement' will ever be made. I worked around DC for a long time and found that when confronted with a difficult decision the government, if at all possible, will delay making a decision untill there is no longer a decision to be made. Cheney made the statement long ago that 'The American Way Of Life Is Not Negotiable'...and, he meant it...if The US Government intended to change course, admit that PO is upon us, admit that we have to slow the party, our foreign policy and military stance would be much different than they are currently. TPTB intend to ride this horse untill it dies and at that point it will be every man/woman/child for themself and a lot of disruption. Our best hope is that it plays out slowly...Hey, I hope I am dead by then.
I agree, that governments in the West will fight tooth and nail to avoid confronting their electorate with unpleasant truths.
I should have been clearer, I was referring to the oil-producing states, who in my view will all tend to switch together, or at least in large blocks, to talking down the future availability of oil from talking it up at present, in the hopes of getting more for what they have left.
Hello River,
Just a FYI:
I posted a long reply in yesterday's Drumbeat further explaining my speculative 'Federal Reserve Bank of I-NPK'. No fractional banking practice is possible with industrial fertilizer, and bank robbers will find the 'cash' is too heavy to steal.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hi Bob...I like the I-NPK Bank idea...similar to gold but not as portable. It would definitely slow down the velocity of money. :)
Re: Weather Channel Founder Blasts Network; Claims It Is 'Telling Us What to Think'
The so-called International Conference on Climate Change which is put on by the Heartland Institute is being held in New York this week. I'd call it a denialist love fest, as the list of presenters includes many of the people who have written or spoken out against the science of climate change over the past decade. The whole thing is a sham, as seen in the obvious bias as described in the conference invitation and the fact that the speakers were offered money to speak.
http://www.heartland.org/NewYork08/newyork08.cfm
I would expect to see many more PR releases from this event, as the whole thing is a setup to provide credibility for the professional denialist crew. It's a fine example of politically motivated disinformation.
E. Swanson
Here's one:
Cirque de Solar Power: New York Conference Puts Lie to 'Consensus'
This would be a golden opportunity for owners of property on NC's Outer Banks, So. Fla., or So. LA to find
suckersbuyers on whom they can unload their soon-to-be underwater acres.Jay Lehr, the science director of the Heartland Institute, is working on a multi-volume energy encyclopedia for Wiley. He is soliciting submissions. I believe that he expects the free market to solve any future energy problems. http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/expert.cfm?expertId=53
what else would?
Uhh, how about a radical shift in attitudes (among survivors) about what is important in life? The Christians, at least some of them, have this doomsday myth and they think its getting close. Buddhists, on the other hand, have this renunciation thing. "Oh, well, it was impermanent anyway, and that stuff I liked was just a subtler form of suffering anyway".
One has skills, education, and beliefs that fit one's life situation, or one fails.
Namaste
Die-off
peak oil means things need to be done by hand and we'll need lots more human labor. we need a large population.
Well, prior to fossil fuel use we did everything "by hand" (and horse, sail, watermill, etc) with a much smaller population, and besides even if we wanted a large one the conditions are unlikely to support it i.e. "after oil" will be "after dieoff" in my opinion
Your joking, right?
There a great report from an undercover attendee with video here:
http://nwf.blogs.com/arctic_promise/
From the report:
Well, I love the term "denier." If I recall correctly, AGW is still called a theory. Therefore, to not beleive it can hardly be called being a denier of it. Theories are cheap. Let's monitor the facts for a few more years, especially if sunspot activity remains low. How has this winter been where you live? By the way, Sydney Australia has just had its coolest summer in history.
A theory is supported by facts and is predictive. A hypothesis is the equivalent of a guess, which are indeed cheap. Not knowing the difference shows you are a nincompoop.
karlof1 -
[L. theoria, from Greek theoria - a looking at, contemplation, speculation]
1. A doctorine or a scheme of things which terminates in speculation or contemplation without a view to practice; speculation; contemplation.
But, screw Webster when WE KNOW what we are talking about.
A theory is founded on INFERENCES drawn from principles; a hypothesis is a proposition that has no other evidence of its truth other than it affords a satisfactory explanation.
Since we are discussing scientific theories perhaps you would be better prepared for the discussion if you used the definition given by the National Academy of Sciences and found here:
"Fact: In science, an observation that has been repeatedly confirmed and for all practical purposes is accepted as "true." Truth in science, however, is never final, and what is accepted as a fact today may be modified or even discarded tomorrow."
"Hypothesis: A tentative statement about the natural world leading to deductions that can be tested. If the deductions are verified, the hypothesis is provisionally corroborated. If the deductions are incorrect, the original hypothesis is proved false and must be abandoned or modified. Hypotheses can be used to build more complex inferences and explanations."
"Law: A descriptive generalization about how some aspect of the natural world behaves under stated circumstances."
"Theory: In science, a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world that can incorporate facts, laws, inferences, and tested hypotheses."
The above are taken from a pamphlet put out by the NAS regarding the teaching of evolution, but the definitions apply to all fields of science.
After the definitions, they go on to say:
"The contention that evolution should be taught as a "theory, not as a fact" confuses the common use of these words with the scientific use. In science, theories do not turn into facts through the accumulation of evidence. Rather, theories are the end points of science. They are understandings that develop from extensive observation, experimentation, and creative reflection. They incorporate a large body of scientific facts, laws, tested hypotheses, and logical inferences."
The Webster definition seems to fit the "common use" the NAS specifically cautions against above.
There is also a good discussion of scientific theories at Wikipedia.
Here are some other theories from physics:
1. Theory of Gravity
2. Heliocentric theory of the solar system
3. Special theory of relativity
4. Quantum theory
5. General theory of relativity
Which of those do you choose to deny?
I pulled an elementary college physics book off my shelf last night to check how much of einsteinian theory was incorporated since it hit me that I learned only newtonian gravity in physics. Albert's theories were not included except for a short E=mc^2 blurb in an advanced chapter. Anyway, the textbook was copyrighted in 1992 and had a thorough coverage of the greenhouse effects. It stated that many of the warmest years have happened since 1980 and the likelihood of it being caused by GHG seemed probable. It also had coverage of energy sources and stated we would begin having shortages of oil and natural gas in the coming decades. Funny and sad, to go back and read where we were at 15 years ago and find we haven't made any progress.
To answer your question, I think the Earth is the center of the solar system and that Copernicus was an idiot. Really, how else would you see the sun rise and set if it wasn't revolving around us.
Sydney too cool? You could always move to the UK which has just had one of its warmest, sunniest winters in history.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2008/february.html
November, December and January were all above average as well.
Now in theory, how many people would have to die before you'd be willing to sacrifice your way of life to change things?
Unless one secretly expects and intends AGW to kill off all the people one sees as an impediment to Free Enterprise, and views a ruined, depopulated Earth as a form of "creative destruction" requiring only procrastination. Social Darwinism is my favorite theory!
This is just silly.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23314972-11949,00.htm...
If you want an actual run down on the actual weather we experienced in Aus this summer.
Weather does not equal climate. One season is weather, 30 seasons is climate. All the cool conditions in Aus this summer are due to the change from La Nino to La Nina conditions. If they swap back again we'll get drought and roasting temperatures once more.
Claiming a cool month or two disproves global warming is as silly as claiming a heat wave proves it. Decades of steadily increasing temperatures could mean something though...
bados
"All the cool conditions in Aus this summer are due to the change from La Nino to La Nina conditions. If they swap back again we'll get drought and roasting temperatures once more."
First of all you should have written: change from El Nino to La Nina conditions.
El Nino to La Nina conditions occur in the eastern Pacific and the effect is opposite in the western Pacific. So During La Nina conditions, Australia is currently observing warmer than normal sea temperatures.
See page 7 of this PDF
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60101/IDO60101.200801.pdf
This will provide a better understanding of this phenomenon.
Sydney averaged 25.2°C this summer (the three months ending 29 February). This is the coolest summer since 1996-97, not since the beginning of time, and was the result of a major La Niña year, the first in 6-7 years, causing high rainfall, with 438mm of summer rain that also causes lower daytime temperatures. Figures from Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
To claim one cool summer in Sydney is evidence of a global warming myth is ingenuous at best, and intentionally dishonest at worst. Or it reflects a total lack of understanding of the huge impact of El Niño and La Niña on all the East Coast of Australia. It will also contribute to a rebound in the wheat crop, hopefully.
Please do some research on the devastating impact of global warming on Australia, particularly in terms of drought, and the impact of indigenous flora and fauna, prior to quoting such figures as support for some spurious argument.
There is a difference between required scientific equivocation borne of not saying "fact" until something is absolutely proven and actual scientific uncertainty. There is zero uncertainty about global warming. Read the IPCC again. They state clearly they are certain. Any equivocation is purely due to scientific principles or political interference.
This denier crap is foolish, if not downright unintelligent. Virtually all sources of denial come from a small cadre of hired guns. Name me *any other* issue we face that has 95% certainty that is generally doubted. Just one.
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008. I've seen no comments about this even though it was released in December. It basically supports collapsing crude oil prices in the next 5 years. What is their source?
Link here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/
Mr. Saleri, perhaps? According to him, one needs hardly do more than pound a pipe in the ground, and "up through the ground comes some bubbling crude", if not a gusher -- and that this will continue to be the case for another sixty years.
Jubak's Journal3/4/2008 12:01 AM ET
Retirement crisis: From bad to worse
'What we've lost that can't be replaced is time.
As anyone planning to retire in 10 years or so knows, your biggest nightmare -- the one where you wake up screaming -- is a collapse in the financial markets and the economy in the years just before you retire.
If you've had such a nightmare, take a shower and then buckle down to some serious financial discipline.'
[having difficulty w/ link-it is on MSN Money]
pretty amazing words. i had to reread to make sure!
Jubak appears peak aware in other articles.
8 months to go, and I am so looking forward to it.
congrats wharf!
i got a few yrs. & trying to maneuver towards retirement. Tis tough to live w/ one foot in today & the other post-peak.
link to above article by Jubak
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/RetirementC...
I think we all need to reduce our expectations. May be you and others can have a short retirement, but with peak oil, I think that every able bodied person who can work will eventually end up needing to go back to work. Social security was in trouble before peak oil. With peak oil, the total "pie" we will be dividing up will be much smaller. Retirees will find it hard to get by, unless they can supplement their income or find a way to stretch their resources by living with children.
What I wonder about with retirement policies, discounting the difficulties in projecting an accurate chronology of peak or global warming problems, is the difference between public vs private plans. We already are seeing the dissolution of most company plans, what will everyone do when the majority of plans still operable are taxpayer funded public retirees, but the taxpayer lost theirs?
gail
i couldn't agree with u more.
i expect collapse; only don't know if that's in weeks, days, decades or drug out over 30+ yrs.
my vision is soon enough we'll all be working longer days & lots more physically, & if we can't contribute we'll need to 'get out of the way'.
retirement to me now is to get off the '9-5' treadmill ; gardening, raising chickens, heating with wood, etc.& more time w/ wife,, friends, kids & grandkids.
luckily i am mostly off the treadmill but worried i may need to get back on it more so.
i look forward to us all needing to work with one another more, & the togetherness that can bring about.
thinking about this today i realize i am only thinking of what i have & maneuvering an ira. if we inflate significantly or go belly up as a gov. social security won't make much difference.
i used to dream of extensive travel to national parks etc. Other than the close ones this would seem very irresponsible; mostly because of the above thinking & having kids that will need all the help we can give[ i mean for the post peak world]; not to mention not being a burden. Yes less, & a lot different expectations.
Retirees will find it hard to get by, unless they can supplement their income or find a way to stretch their resources by living with children.
Possibly. More likely the other way round. Because those retiring today had the opportunity to accumulate wealth during the era of cheap oil and an appreciating housing market. The children OTOH who moved into the housing market, the job market, and are feeding families from the supermarket recently have distinctly less opportunity to accumulate on the scale their parents did. Facing the triple headwinds of peak oil, the morgage meltdown, and wage/price divergence means post peakers are at a decided disadvantage to the preceeding generation.
Anyone who has children hasn't much comfort here. But the expectations can be quite varied across the spectrum. A retiree with a realistic peak oil outlook on the future may be in a better position to mitigate it's impacts and adapt their lifestyle accordingly. Some may choose to work but as a case of dire survival as an alternative to cave dwelling I worry more about those who follow.
Hopefully those who can will direct their energies toward helping out where they can. There should be ample opportunty. That's my plan with any spare time and money.
xburb
looks true for me & my kids. well put!
creg
Thanks for your response.
Some are mainly struggling but I am so proud of how these young people are facing what they know to be tough times. Many of them are making very appropriate choices in their lifestyles and avocations. They seem to be keenly aware of how their happiness does not depend on the accumulation of things but on the relationships they build and their commitment to workable solutions for the train wreck they've been handed.
Supporting them to meet these challenges is probably well worth our time and energy.
I think we all need to reduce our expectations. May be you and others can have a short retirement,"
LOL. 40 acres, 2 ponds, solar powered, 100 fruit trees,and a garden.
Summer vacation for the rest of my life. Y'all can be working, but not the Kid, unless I need to help out my kids.
I'm a cheap date; think I'll save money on SS. Means my retirement stuff is all for play (which covers a multitude of sins, including solar for the kids). If I ever get paid for making electricity, so much the better.
Live long and prosper.
Well we got no choice
All the girls and boys
Makin all that noise
'Cause they found new toys
Well we can't salute ya
Can't find a flag
If that don't suit ya
That's a drag
School's out for summer
School's out forever
School's been blown to pieces
No more pencils
No more books
No more teacher's dirty looks
Well we got no class
And we got no principles
And we got no innocence
We can't even think of a word that rhymes
School's out for summer
School's out forever
School's been blown to pieces
No more pencils
No more books
No more teacher's dirty looks
Out for summer
Out till fall
We might not go back at all
School's out forever
School's out for summer
School's out with fever
School's out completely
2 1/2 months to go... Taken shower (or was it a 'bath') buckling in process. Looking forward nonetheless!
Just an observation.
The price of oil is not at an inflation adjusted all time high. It is just a tad over the high price of 1980, adjusted for inflation. World oil consumption that year dropped by 5 percent from 1979. But prices continued to stay high until 1985 before dropping off sharply in 1986. But by 1983 oil consumption had dropped by 15 percent from 1979.
In the early 80s the oil supply dropped causing prices to rise until supply met demand. Today it is a little different. Oil supply has been level for the last three years but demand has still increased. However the price has risen until supply now meets demand.
World oil prices, nominal and adjusted for inflation.
http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Pri...
And World Crude Oil production, in thousands of barrels per day.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pL1ZqwKbkFcdpNlL8EaWkVw&hl=en&pli...
1979---$25.10---$71.96---62,674
1980---$37.42---$95.50---59,558
1981---$35.75---$82.70---56,050
1982---$31.83---$69.33---53,454
1983---$29.08---$61.34---53,257
1984---$28.75---$58.14---54,499
1985---$26.92---$52.56---53,966
1986---$14.44---$27.66---56,199
What this tells me is that demand destruction takes time. If prices stay this high then demand will drop along with, perhaps, prices. Prices hit their all time high three years before demand dropped the lowest.
Ron Patterson
What I love about the chart from the NYTimes is that it identifies the 1980's as a time of energy conservation and insulation efforts. No mention of the opening up of the North Slope or the North Sea. Very small factual oversights there. And it was Carter, not Reagan, who led the conservation and insulation efforts-- those were gutted in the Reagan Revolution. Oh, and it was in the 70's that we stopped burning oil for electricity and substituted all that nuclear. Very small oversights, don't ya know.
There is a basic misunderstanding of the oil markets, even among those paid to write about it. Jeesh.