DrumBeat: March 3, 2008


UK mulling fuel poverty voucher

The government is considering a voucher scheme to help the poorest people pay their gas and electricity bills, the BBC has learned.

Treasury ministers raised the idea in a meeting with executives from some of the biggest UK energy firms on Monday.

Energy firms have been criticised for raising gas and power prices when they are seeing their profits increase.

More than four million people in the UK are fuel poor - spending more than 10% of their income on energy bills.

Shell likely to miss Canada tar sands

Hopes that Royal Dutch Shell would be allowed to include oil reserves from a huge project in Canada in time for a major strategy announcement later this month have been dashed.

This will disappoint the City and raise concern about the Anglo-Dutch giant's ability to grow profits from its multibillion-pound expansion into unconventional sources of oil such as Canada's tar sands fields.


Chevron-led Russian Port Ships 25 Percent Less Oil in February

(Bloomberg) -- The oil terminal operated by Chevron Corp.'s Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk shipped 25 percent less crude in February compared with the same month last year.


Russia's oil fund garners $160 billion so far in 2008

Russia's oil funds accumulated $160 billion by March 1 as the world's biggest energy exporter benefited from oil and gas sales.


From bankruptcy to big bucks

Two three-letter words sum up Russia’s economic good fortune under Vladimir Putin: oil and gas.

Russia was bankrupt just a decade ago, its economy in meltdown after the Government defaulted on its foreign debt and the stock market lost two thirds of its value in a single day.


Inflation in South Africa & the Global Commodity Cycle

The trouble today for governments that subsidise food and petrol is that it's getting really expensive. With oil over $100 and grain prices soaring, paying wholesale rates on the global market is going to be a drain on local currency reserves. Sooner or later these governments will have to allow prices to rise. As we've seen in Burma, China, and even Italy and other places, suddenly soaring food prices are not a political winner.


OPEC MEETING Ecuador to propose OPEC unity in Exxon-Venezuela dispute

VIENNA (Thomson Financial) - Ecuador is to propose OPEC presents a united front in support of Venezuela during its dispute with oil giant Exxon-Mobil, when the cartel meets this Wednesday in Vienna to discuss production quotas.


Nuclear Watchdog Presses Iran on Weapon Reports

The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday that intelligence reports that Iran secretly researched how to make nuclear weapons were of “serious concern,” adding that his agency was determined to fully investigate the claims.


Kunstler: Campaign Blues

The president-elect will quickly realize that the number one problem is not that Americans can't afford health care -- it's that they can't afford anything, because their income is evaporating in terms of both lost jobs and a dollar that is racing toward worthlessness. They'll be hard put to pay for food and gasoline, nevermind Grandma's emphysema treatments. They will be walking away from home ownership -- or yanked kicking and screaming by default-and-repo -- and any government scheme devised to abridge their mortgage contracts will only undermine basic contract law that has made mortgage lending a credible thing in the first place. And that too, of course, would redound straight to a real estate sector already in price free-fall, with no one willing or able to think about buying a house.


Old North Church goes modern with LEDs

The 18 strips of LEDs inside church's sanctuary — replacements for old-fashioned incandescents — may seem an anachronism at the most visited historic site in a city with a rich Revolutionary War legacy. But the lights are tucked into crown molding, illuminating the graceful white ceiling arches while the lights themselves are hidden from direct view by tourists and worshippers below.

"What we've added is light, and beauty," said Ed Pignone, executive director of the Old North Foundation of Boston, which oversees the 285-year-old church.


Okla. fight over poultry waste escalates

At stake is a practice thousands of farmers have employed for years: Taking the ammonia-reeking stuff — clumped bird droppings, bedding and feathers — and spreading it on their land as cheap fertilizer.

However inexpensive, decades of mass-dumping of the litter has wreaked havoc in the 1-million-acre Illinois River watershed, turning it into a murky, sludgy mess, environmentalists say.


Hands off palm

The cosmetics producer Lush is setting up a forum to find alternatives to palm oil, a crop regarded as unsustainable but that is still found in many everyday products such as soap and moisturiser.


Oil jumps to a record above $103 as dollar drops

NEW YORK — Oil prices surged to a record high Monday as the dollar weakened to another low against the euro.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery was trading up $1.93 to $103.77 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising as high as $103.95. That's higher than the $103.76 many analysts say would have been the price of oil in 1980, if it was adjusted for inflation into 2008 dollars.


Heinberg - Beyond hope and doom: Time for a peak oil pep talk

Awareness of Peak Oil, Climate Change, impending global economic implosion, topsoil depletion, biodiversity collapse, and the thousand other dire threats crashing down upon us at the dawn of the new millennium constitutes an enormous psychological burden, one so onerous that most people (and institutions) respond with a battery of psychological defenses-mostly versions of denial and distraction-in an effort to keep conscious awareness comfortably distanced from stark reality.

I discuss this in "the Psychology of Peak Oil and Climate Change," chapter 7 of Peak Everything, where I conclude that the healthiest response to dire knowledge is to do something practical and constructive in response, preferably in collaboration with others, both because the worst can probably still be avoided and because engaged action makes us feel better.


Bill McKibben: First, Step Up

At any given moment we face as a society an enormous number of problems: there’s the mortgage crisis, the health care crisis, the endless war in Iraq, and on and on. Maybe we’ll solve some of them, and doubtless new ones will spring up to take their places. But there’s only one thing we’re doing that will be easily visible from the moon. That something is global warming. Quite literally it’s the biggest problem humans have ever faced, and while there are ways to at least start to deal with it, all of them rest on acknowledging just how large the challenge really is.


The Senate Shills for Big Oil

One of the major shortcomings in last year’s admirable energy bill was its failure to extend vital tax credits to producers of wind, solar and other renewable fuels. This was entirely the doing of the Senate, which caved in to the oil companies and their White House friends.

The House had approved the credits but insisted — under the Democrats’ pay-as-you-go rules — that they be paid for by eliminating the same amount in tax credits for oil and gas producers. Industry (which is rolling in cash these days) howled, President Bush lofted veto threats, and the Senate caved.


UK gas terminal shut Monday, damage probe continues

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell's UK gas terminal at Bacton remained closed on Monday afternoon as investigations continued into the extent of the damage caused by a fire on Feb. 28, a spokesman for the company said.

"The plant is still shut down and investigations are ongoing," the spokesman said, adding that it was still unclear for how long the terminal would be closed.


Ukraine's Naftogaz Ukrainy says Gazprom has cut shipments by 35 pct

KIEV (Thomson Financial) - NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy said OAO Gazprom has cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine by 35 pct, 10 percentage points more than the supply cut announced this morning, Interfax reported.


Venezuela, Exxon in refinery supply talks: minister

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela is in talks with Exxon Mobil over supplies to the Chalmette refinery, the oil minister said on Friday, amid an escalating legal battle between the OPEC nation and the U.S. oil giant.


Arabian Gulf tanker rates likely to increase due to lack of vessels

London: The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the world's busiest route for supertankers, may advance for a sixth day because vessel supply is constrained in the Atlantic.


Papua New Guinea: Fuel crisis hits Bougainville

MOTORISTS in Bougainville are resorting to kerosene to run their vehicles as the region experiences fuel shortage .

All fuel outlets have been hard hit with most completely dried up.

It is expected that there would be no vehicles moving about this week.


Romania: Price for French nuclear tech may prove too high

With France pushing for greater cooperation on nuclear power with Romania, the Canadians who first introduced nuclear tech to Romania argue the Gallic technology comes at a cost the country may not be willing to pay.


Cops probe fires in development near Seattle

WOODINVILLE, Wash. - Four large model homes are burning at a multimillion-dollar development in a suburb north of Seattle. An official says a sign found at the scene had the initials of the Earth Liberation Front.


EU energy commissioner says oil could reach 200 dollars a barrel

MADRID (AFP) - Oil prices could reach 200 dollars a barrel, the European Union's energy commissioner said in an interview published Monday in Spain, two days ahead of an OPEC meeting to decide daily output levels.

"When I arrived at the European Commission in 2004, a barrel of oil cost 52 dollars. It has doubled in three years. We can't rule out that in 2011 it will be at 200 dollars," Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs told business daily El Economista.


Krone Is World Beater With Norway Oil, Rates, Surplus

(Bloomberg) -- Foreign-exchange traders searching for refuge from mounting losses in the credit market are heading to Norway.

The krone is luring speculators attracted to the highest interest rates in five years and a trade surplus that is bigger than any of the 30 most-developed economies thanks to oil prices that now exceed $100 a barrel. Since the start of the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market in June, the krone's 15.5 percent gain has trailed only the Japanese yen and Swiss franc among the world's 16 most-actively traded currencies.


Saudi arrests Qaeda suspects planning attacks

RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia said on Monday it has arrested 28 people suspected of seeking to regroup al Qaeda's wing in the oil-exporting kingdom to carry out a "terror campaign".


Saudi Arabia Is Not a Puppet State: Saud

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia will never change its domestic or foreign policies under pressure from the United States, Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said here yesterday.

Addressing a closed session of the 150-member Shoura Council in the capital, Prince Saud said the Kingdom’s policies were steady and not dictated by the superpower or any other country. “We have never been a puppet state,” a Shoura member quoted Prince Saud as saying.


Libya says Tamoil deal off

ALGIERS (Reuters) - U.S. based private investment firm Colony Capital LLC's deal to buy a controlling stake in Libya's European refiner Tamoil is off, the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) chairman said on Monday.

"There is no deal," Mohamed Layas, chairman of Libya's state investment arm, told Reuters by telephone from the north African OPEC member country.


Kadhafi: Ministries abolished, oil revenues to be distributed directly to Libyans

According to him, the cabinet is not needed as it had failed to manage the the country's hugel oil earnings. He stressed big projects were behind schedule and so ordinary people should themselves devise a new way of sharing out oil revenues. "All citizens have the right to benefit from the oil funds. They should take the money and do whatever they want with it," he said, according to Reuters.


Russia reduces natural gas to Ukraine by a quarter

MOSCOW and KIEV — Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom reduced supplies to Ukraine by a quarter on Monday, just hours after its chairman and Kremlin candidate Dmitry Medvedev won Russia's presidential election.


EU considering calling urgent gas coordination group for Gazprom/Ukraine dispute

BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - The European Commission said it is considering calling an urgent gas coordination group meeting to be held over Gazprom's latest dispute with Ukraine.


StatoilHydro Sleipner T Output to Resume in 24 Hours

(Bloomberg) -- StatoilHydro ASA, Norway's largest oil and natural-gas company, will start production at platform T at the Sleipner gas and condensate field in the North Sea within the next 24 hours.

The resumption of output at platform A will ``take longer,'' spokesman Gisle Johanson said today by telephone, without elaborating. The two platforms have a capacity of about 39 million cubic meters of gas a day, of which platform T accounts for more than 50 percent, he said.

Production was halted after a gas leak at platform A, which was discovered when an alarm sounded at about 3 a.m. local time today. The 228 personnel on site were moved to lifeboats for about 1 1/2 hours before returning to the platform. The cause of the leak remains unknown, Johanson said.


Greek power utility says strike disrupts production

ATHENS (Reuters) - A strike at Greece's electricity utility Public Power Corp (PPC), has disrupted energy production throughout the country and may lead to partial power cuts, the company said on Monday.


Russians look for continuity in Putin ally Medvedev

MOSCOW (AP) — Russians on Monday looked to Dmitry Medvedev, the man they overwhelmingly chose as their next president, to continue Vladimir Putin's policies of asserting this resurgent country's power abroad and keeping a tight grip on society at home.


South America on brink of war

SANTA CRUZ, Bolivia — South America was on the brink of war yesterday as Venezuela and Ecuador amassed troops on the Colombian border in response to the killing of a Marxist rebel leader.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to join the rebels in a war to overthrow hard-line Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, a key ally of the United States, deploying tanks, fighter jets and thousands of troops along the Colombian border.


Caring for each other

Experts say the world may soon reach peak oil, meaning there won't be any more "easy, light, sweet oil" left to extract, and from then on, until fossil fuels run out completely, it will become increasingly expensive to produce oil.

During this time we will rely on Middle East supplies. Natural gas is also stressed, as we use half of Canada's output to satisfy 15 percent of our need. Although other energy sources are being sought, it is hard to see how they will power cars and planes.


Inflation and petroleum depletion

The Central Bank Governor in agreeing that fiscal policy provides a special challenge for natural resource based economies demurred by saying that higher oil revenues provide these governments with the opportunity to increase public spending on priority economic and social goals. However, these "fortunate" governments are faced with the trade-off between pressing development needs and the limits of the countries' institutional and absorptive capacities. The Governor also warned us before of the slippery slope of economic decline after a 10 per cent inflation rate. We only need to look at the success of Botswana (a resource rich country) to see that our Executive (as hinted by the Governor) lacks the policies and institutions required to manage a resource rich country.


Congestion charge has increased life expectancy of Londoners

The Central London Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS) has led to a modest increase in the life expectancy of Londoners, according to a joint study by King's College, London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, which is published in Occupation and Environmental Medicine journal.


Ethanol giant ADM is bullish on fuel’s future

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. - On a conference call back in early November, Archer Daniels Midland Chief Executive Patricia Woertz sounded like an ethanol bull on the prowl for a bargain.


Agriculture's new 'golden age'

Peter Brabeck, CEO of Nestlé SA, the world's largest food company, foresees a struggle between the food and biofuel industries over arable land as fresh water supplies diminish.

"We will not find sufficient water to produce all the crops," Brabeck said while reporting his firm's financial results last week. "There will be a fierce fight for arable land."

Arable-land acreage is indeed shrinking, even factoring out its conversion to production of fuel feedstock. Several million hectares of farmland disappear each year, as growing economies convert it into residential subdivisions and industrial parks. Declining fresh-water supplies further diminish the amount of land available for farming.


Water to be the next commoditised resource

As the world's population soars, economic growth and the resulting demand for energy have led to a growing consensus that the days of unfettered and unregulated extraction and usage rights will come to an end.

Neil Eckert, chief executive of Climate Exchange, the carbon trading system, believes a cap-and-trade system like the one Europe has established to regulate CO2 emissions could be a solution. "If there is not enough of something, you ration it. Once you ration it, you create a secondary market, and it starts to be traded," he said.

As head of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturer, Mr Engel has an interest in water being assigned a price. Wind generation requires just five litres of water to generate five megawatts, the average amount of energy consumed by a household per year. Coal requires 10,000 litres, while nuclear needs 12,500, to produce the same amount of power.

Without using the phrase Peak Oil, Warren Buffet basically endorsed it this morning on CNBC. He asked the following rhetorical question (as we don't replace the production from older, larger declining fields):

"Who knows what the equilibrium price (for oil) will be?"

IMO, the key point to keep in mind is that financial markets are still assuming that high energy prices are temporary, i.e., that we basically can have an infinite rate of increase in our energy consumption. IMO, there is not enough exported energy available to pay back all of the loans and to generate the projected earnings. Therefore, the markets are still mispricing most equity and debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview...
The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:43pm GMT 03/03/2008

For the first time since this Greek tragedy began, I am now really frightened.

I recommend MELP--Maximize ELP

ELP Plan (April, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/04/elp-plan-economize-localize-prod...

Author Thom Hartmann, in his book, “The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight,” described a high tech company that he consulted for that went through several rounds of start up financing, and then collapsed, without ever delivering a real product. At the peak of their activity, they had several employees and lavish office space--until they ran out of capital. His point was that this company was analogous to a large portion of the US economy, which has the appearance of considerable activity and uses vast amounts of energy, but how much of this economic activity delivers essential goods and services?

Mish has a long list of things we don't need:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/03/is-belt-tightening-th...
Things We Don't Need

Belt tightening is not a threat, it should be embraced! We are in this mess because we failed to tighten belts. The real threat is we continue our spendthrift ways. Postponing the inevitable will only make matters worse.

Yeah, I read Mish's column earlier and especially liked 'If this truck driver had not been taking his family to Sushi Restaurants for $150 outings he could probably afford to buy his daughter a prom dress.' FOMALOL

All those things we don't need more of would employ millions of people. As we know from the concept of overshoot, these people aren't really needed, either.

However, we will need a larger proportion of the remaining society involved in cleaning up the billions of overshot dead bodies lying around.

Drumbeats like this make one more doomerish by the day

Bob Brinker on the "Money Talk" radio show (nation wide) openly talks about us being on the "downside of Hubbert's curve". Who needs code talk by Buffet when others are already saying it direct?

Umm, maybe because I do not know who Bob Brinker is, and Buffett is the third richest man in the universe (and cousin to Jimmy)?

It only takes a few thousand dollars to open up a commodities options account. I assume that everyone here has already considered what is going to happen to oil prices over the next five years, and has already committed funds to 2013 oil options.
Five years ago, I calculated how much oil my immediate and extended families would need over the next forty years, and for a relatively modest price (then) I was able to purchase nearly ten times that amount of oil in the stock market. Along with ELP, it would seem to make sense to be doing that now. It is, in my opinion, far better to spend $3,000 to control a large block of oil five years from now, than to spend $3,000 in a mutual fund in an IRA. Of course, if I had credit card debt or an unaffordable mortgage, I might spend that $3,000 elsewhere. But it is cheap insurance.
As part of ELP, I think it is important to turn paper into hard assets-- and the liquidity offered by cash can nowhere near match the liquidity of WTI crude.

Appreciate the validation, possom. Curious- what did you calculate as 10x oil for your family?

I figured about 1400 gallons of gasoline per person, equivalent, per year, which meant 4200 gallons per year for a family of three, which translated into (surprise!) 100 barrels per year. Multiplied by 10, that was 1000 barrels. So, I needed to control 40,000 bbls worth of production in a long-lived reservoir, such as heavy oil. Our actual consumption is much less than that now.

I assume that that 1400 gallons was taking into account a whole range of energy uses, not just transportation. Certainly hedging against natural gas is as important (certainly in the UK where power generation is so dependent on it). I'd worked out that 250 gallons was more than enough car wise, not sure about other uses.

Anyone know where to source good commodity options figures for distant times? It would be interesting to do the calcs to determine what investment would be needed now to hedge against future movements. Might be a better place for money than the stock market. Would also be interesting to determine how you could hedge against food prices.

Hedge against food prices? Buy lots of pasta and grains now. Dry goods, if stored properly, can keep for a good while. Pasta, rice, beans, and Textured Vegetable Protein. You can even venture into freeze-dried vegetables and fruit if you like.

That's not a hedge, that's just preparing a backup plan.

What I'm saying is can you buy REAL futures in foodstuffs such that if the price of food goes up, your options increase in value as well and the net effect is to remove the price risk?

Anyone know where to source good commodity options figures for distant times?

As I noted just above, I have not found options to be readily available far-out. There seem to be very few who are willing to sell naked calls these days, not least since those who have done so for the last couple years have "gotten their asses handed to them" in the words of one broker.

Here's one link which I don't think is proprietary... but just because something shows up here doesn't mean "you" could get it; apparently the 'settlements' between large institutions show up, but that doesn't equate to the "street value" of what someone in the NYMEX pits will actually sell you one for.. IF they'll sell you one at all. At least that's what I've been given to understand. These charts show very few options during trading hours, and not all of those are 'available'; after hours the settlements will be included and give rough values, except that there's a premium added to those values if you were to buy...

http://man.barchart.com/pl/man/ib/optqte.asp?sym=CL&mode=i

Lotsa luck... and if anyone can correct any wrong impressions I have, please do!

Do not depend on the counterparty to be there to honor the contract.

But right now I can buy gasoline for $3.05.

NYMEX wants $2.72.

No one can ship gas, much less make it. for .33.

$103.30 and gas retail at $3.05.

That's command economy folks and it'll work just as well as the Soviets'.

CBOT Wheat up $1.73. Corn up $.13 Soy up $.43

The gas stations make it up by selling coffee and soda pop.

I spoke of this before, the April railroad contract diesel price is $3.79/gal, now that is without road taxes. I think the cost of goods will be going up once more, very soon.

Maybe. But I'm talkin' about the refiners.

Refiners can turn $103 crude into a profit with $3.05 gasoline?

According to all the top notch petro engineers we have here,
isn't that some kind of a miracle?

Some other factors.

Refinery utilization and crack spread are way down.
Gasoline inventories are up.
There are some large subsidies at work for big oil and ethanol.

Likely changes coming later this year include $4 gasoline because.

Increased refinery utilization and crack spread due to seasonal demand.
Possible repeal of some subsidies.
Dollar fall continues (OPEC Russia act to support $100+ floor).
Slumping exports higher duties from places like Russia (MELP)
Seasonal additive shortages.
Retailers adjust to new paradigm. (next refill surprizingly costs more (lack of expected end of season price relief), fewer value added customers)
Election outcome becomes factored in.

Do not depend on the counterparty to be there to honor the contract.

If you think that the price of oil will continue to rise for several years then the future is definitely NOT BAU, many things may not be working as they do now - including derivative and futures markets - especially if the counterparty is heavily out of the money!

This has been my concern. I have a lump of cash, where to house it? commodities contracts? Foreign currency? Gold? What markets are most stable and likely to have the contracts executed and not leave you with empty paper. If I want that I can keep it in greenbacks. Any thoughts? And just to keep this oil related, I need to protect my assets so I can buy oil in the future don't I?

Well, if you'd be OK with a half-assed opinion, I have arbitrarily assumed that NYMEX will function through 2012 and perhaps through 2013, I wouldn't buy farther out than that. As I say, that's an arbitrary call.

Before it all falls apart, there could be some spectacular money change hands.

I don't think about money much... like Forrest Gump said, one less thing to worry about... since one can live fine at present on a tiny fraction of what the 'normal' american takes in and spends. But I can relate to it as a game, and I do want to see my family do alright. I also find that having a bit of $$ can be useful to jumpstart advocacy programs. Plus, if buying up options actually DOES raise the price of oil, GREAT... let's all help send a price-signal to the conspicuous consumers.

One does not really have to depend on the counter-party much in futures trading, as far as I understand it. Every day the value of my account is recalculated based on the settle price. I am then free to remove the excess money above my margin requirements, and do so on a frequent basis. The person on the other side has to move money into his account every day to keep the margin above the 7.50 per barrel margin limit or his positions are liquidated. Above, someone mentioned a 3,000 dollar margin requirement, but that has been raised to about $7500 per 1000 barrel contract in the last few months. The only money you would stand to lose would be a sudden move of oil more than $7.50 in one day, which could theoretically wipe out the conterparty and put him so far under water that even the margin money on hand wouldn't make you whole. My broker assesses a small (cents per trade) charge which is kept in escrow for such events and has reinsurance over and above that. There are a lot of risks in playing commodities, but counterparty risk is pretty far down my list of worries. To the guy above who said he's holding the equivalent of 40000 barrels of oil, or FORTY long contracts, hope you are literally keeping a mountain of cash on hand because you are controlling like 4 million in underlying oil assets. A 10 dollar retrenchment is going to cost you 400 grand to keep your position open--and that would only take the price of the 2012 contract back to the high eighties. There were a lot of guys who were peak aware that got washed out last January on that big plunge. No conciliation in being right long term if you go bankrupt in the intermediate time frame. I have ten long contracts with about half a million cash in immediate demand accounts, yet it still keeps me awake at night sometimes worrying if I have enough set aside. Good luck and hope it all works out for you.

Good points, especially on counter-party risk (which I agree is not an issue), but I believe the poster who was hedging his future oil needs was using options, which limit his downside risk to the price of the options.

Thanks Johno that does answer some of my commodities trading questions, but I think it is the bigger societal structure questions that I really have. Maybe these are questions ala Orlov or the changes coming are just to big to have answers. But in past upheavals what markets or bourses? ( If I am using that correctly) are most likely to continue to exist, as we are seeing banks can go belly up, sometimes even cities as alluded to above.

Yeah, my biggest concern is not so much counterparty, but more that the government will step in and help themselves to my 10000 barrels of oil, which I could physically claim when my contracts come due. Either that or just put the exchange of indefinite holiday. I bought my contracts in the low 70's, and have putting about a third of the profits into untraceable gold and silver, while using the rest to buttress my cash reserves in case of a price downtun. When oil hits $150-200 I'll probably close out entirely and put the whole thing in PM's, even though I may be leaving a big part of the oil run-up on the table. Also, I have "sold short" some of my gold on the exchange to earn interest income. Partially shields me from gold's fluctuations while allowing me to keep all the gold in my physical possession. Only way I know to earn a guaranteed income without having to use the banking system. 5% isn't gonna let me retire to Monaco, but at least I don't have to depend on the FDIC to make me whole.

A concern that I have about planning too far into the future with oil contracts is Force Majeure and how it could apply.

Have you considered this risk, and can you recommend anywhere to find out more?

(for example Shell's Nigeria ops have declared this in the last year or so)

If this is an ignorant question please go easy on me :-)

"A concern that I have about planning too far into the future with oil contracts is Force Majeure and how it could apply."

The NYMEX crude contract specifies only Cushing, OK as the physical delivery point. The exchange has rules for Force Majeure - e.g. alternative delivery points, delayed delivery, etc. Natural gas delivery during Katrina in 2005 was the only time Force Majeure was declared by NYMEX.

The precedent is 1933 when Roosevelt outlawed gold bonds, bonds that required payment of interest in gold.
Your contract may be taken over by the government, or just the oil that is produced in the US. Don't know how they would handle it.

The NYMEX website states "Transactions executed on the Exchange avoid the risk of counterparty default because the NYMEX clearinghouse acts as the counterparty to every trade. "

johno, who is your broker? I've started with Lind-Waldock and use the online trading tools which seem to work pretty well although maybe not as good as having a man on the floor during open outcry trading. But I save a few dollars on trading and I might miss a cent or two on the bid-ask spread, but we peak oilers are long termers so its not really material. I'm in at 6 contracts now but I want to get up to around 10 to 12. I'd like to see enough of a correction to be able to get back in cheaper. Right now I'm in long from the 80s with Z10s and Z11s. The backwardation sweet spot seems to be in that time range. The later contracts are progressively more expensive (but not much). The 10s and 11s also have more liquidity than the later stuff. Question: (touched on earlier) I understand marking to market upon each closing trade day and I understand force majeure. What happens if a producer sells x contracts for delivery in y time, anticipating production to cover the contracts written, and then is unable to deliver due to failing production? Let's assume that the contracts reach the due date and each party has to deliver. I'm not totally clear on the possible outcomes there.

I use MF Global (Mann Financial). I set it up and funded it through Etrade. I wouldn't call myself an active trader, I pretty much bought an amount of contracts roughly equal to my total net worth, stuck 40-50% of that amount in cash and short T-bills, and plan to hold them to near expiration, when I may roll them further out. I have been selling a bit as oil has run up (I started with 14 contracts and am down to 10). I've been pleased with the platform and with the customer service (I have to call them when I wire money in or out--mostly out up to now ;>). The trading fees are nominal, and I keep an Etrade saving acct linked to it so the wire fees are only 7.95 out of Mann and free to transfer in. My only gripe was when NYMEX rose the margin requirements. The way I found out is when Mann called me for a 100,ooo dollar margin call. An email, or call or some kind of fore-notice would have been nice, though I guess one could argue that if you don't have the cash on hand you shouldn't be trading commodities in the first place. I don't have any experience with options. I don't know all the rules on delivery, as I don't really plan to take physical possession (I guess I could put in my swimming pool...). I do know it varies with the commodity, most of the mini contracts actually specify a financial rather than physical settlement. In most cases the counter-party would have to buy in the open market to cover their contract. Futures contracts represent a pretty small percentage compared to the total spot monthly activity, so I wouldn't think it would be a problem for them to cover, though they make not like the price at the point (he,he). I also think financial settlement is also possible in extreme circumstances if both parties agree, but don't quote me on that. Pretty sure it happened with silver back in the early 80's when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market, people were allowed to buy their way out of their contracts rather than driving the market higher chasing the diminishing amount of bullion on deposit. Silver bulls have been screaming since, but it was way before my time.


But right now I can buy gasoline for $3.05.
NYMEX wants $2.72.

The $2.72 is for the April delivery, so the pump price will go up. I think the March contract expired around $2.50 or so last week, and the Feb. contract expired 10 or 20 cents below that in Jan.

Hi Olepossum.

I pretty much followed your same logic RE hedging my family's future by picking up some oil options, and haven't regretted it.

However, while futures contracts are available quite far out, options don't seem to be. My broker can't get me any out-of-the-money naked crude calls past 2011 and those are pretty hard to come by.

Is he right, or are others here finding options available for sale in farther-out years than that?

I prefer options since the amount of risk is stable and the cost relatively low if you buy them out of the money.

cheers...

Financial writer James Stewart was just on CNBC complaining about how investment banks are handling the auction rate mess. They sold these instruments as basically being equivalent to cash. Since the market has collapsed, people can't get their money out, and the banks are offering to loan their customers money against their holdings, and charge interest. So, the banks are charg