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DrumBeat: May 4, 2008
Posted by Leanan on May 4, 2008 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Michael Klare: The New Geopolitics of Energy
While the day-to-day focus of US military planning remains Iraq and Afghanistan, American strategists are increasingly looking beyond these two conflicts to envision the global combat environment of the emerging period--and the world they see is one where the struggle over vital resources, rather than ideology or balance-of-power politics, dominates the martial landscape. Believing that the United States must reconfigure its doctrines and forces in order to prevail in such an environment, senior officials have taken steps to enhance strategic planning and combat capabilities. Although little of this has reached the public domain, there have been a number of key indicators.
Nigeria oil rebels say mulling Obama truce appeal
LAGOS (Reuters) - Rebels who have stepped up attacks on Nigeria's oil industry in the last month said on Sunday they were considering a ceasefire appeal by U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama.
Food, fuel costs climb, and key inflation measure drops
The official view of inflation for years has taken little account of food and energy prices, which are thought to go up and down with no lasting impact.But evidence is growing that these basics could be elevated for years to come, and the "core" inflation rate—minus food and energy — is telling only part of the story.
"It is reassuring to have the core index tame, but you can't eat on the core index. You can't drive on the core index," said Bill Hummer, chief economist at Wayne Hummer Investments in Chicago. "You can't ignore what's going on in food and energy."
Third of oil revenues goes back to consumer countries - OAPEC
KUWAIT (KUNA) -- The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) said Sunday an estimated third of the cash surplus generated from the oil exports of its members in 2007 went back to the consumer countries.The soaring prices of other imports of the oil exporting countries consumed a great part of the cash surplus due to the plummeting of U.S. dollar, OAPEC said in its monthly bulletin.
The relationship between the dollar depreciation and the rise in crude oil prices
Last week, OPEC's current chairman, Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mining Shakib Khalil, said "the dollar is now the barometer of oil prices," and anticipated that oil prices would jump from their current level of about $120 per barrel to almost $200. In his statement to the press he explained that oil prices move in an opposite direction to the dollar and hence a direct relationship exists between the two.
Asian leaders issue poverty warning
Soaring food prices may throw millions of people back into poverty in Asia and undo a decade of gains, regional leaders said Sunday while calling for increased agricultural production to meet rising demand.Asia - home to two-thirds of the world's poor - risks rising social unrest as a doubling of the price of wheat and rice in the past year has hurt people spending more than half their income on food, Fukushiro Nukaga, the Japanese finance minister, said during the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank.
India feels the heat as thousands riot over power cuts
Thousands of people, many wearing only underwear, rioted across northern India yesterday over power cuts that have left millions without electricity or water, highlighting the yawning gap between the country’s superpower aspirations and realities on the ground.
Yemen: Cabinet orders closure of monopolizing diesel stations
The Cabinet is holding Ministry of Oil and Minerals responsible for overseeing the process of the supply and distribution of diesel to the licensed stations in Yemen and to take legal action against manipulators of the distribution, as well as ordering the closure of the stations that manipulate or violate laws of diesel distribution.
Scores of gas exploration companies leased much of the rolling land, pasture and green space from Central Pennsylvania to the Northern Tier, through the Endless Mountains and along Pennsylvania’s Route 6 to New Jersey. Smooth-talking land representatives have set up shop in county deed offices. Few residents with more than 20 acres have not been approached with at least one offer from a gas company or intermediary.
I admit that I have never hiked, hunted or skied cross-country on Mount Taylor. You may not have either. So why should we care what happens there? Because we care about energy costs and realize that energy is central to life as we know it. The lights that protect us at night, the computers that allow us to communicate efficiently and the medical equipment that saves lives all require energy.As New Mexico continues to grow, we are going to need every energy source available. We need to be filling up the energy pool, not draining it. Yet, with help from the Sierra Club, that is what has just happened.
In the year 2000, there was a tremendous glut of oil in the world market. Supertankers were fully loaded and standing off-shore with no takers, no room in the land-based tank farms, no capacity at the refineries (or so we were told). The multinational oil companies and countries were inexplicably NOT ordering the available crude into storage tanks at their cracking plants. In effect, a world wide glut of crude oil was being described as a shortage.
Emissions Trading – A Weapon of Mass Taxation
"Staggering estimates of the costs of forcing industry to purchase permits to emit CO2 are just starting to emerge:Germany (100 billion euros), Australia (up to $22 billion), New Zealand ($4.5 billion). The amazing fact is that even though consumers in many countries will bear oppressive costs, there may be no reduction whatsoever in CO2 emissions, and no beneficial effects on the world climate."
In a New Climate Model, Short-Term Cooling in a Warmer World
After decades of research that sought, and found, evidence of a human influence on the earth’s climate, climatologists are beginning to shift to a new and similarly daunting enterprise: creating decade-long forecasts for climate, just as meteorologists routinely generate weeklong forecasts for weather.
Logging reports back opposing views on climate change
Loggers will return to the forested lower Sierra Nevada this spring armed with a peer-reviewed study that says "intensive" forestry practices - including clear-cuts - may ultimately assist in the battle against rising worldwide temperatures.No way, environmentalists say. Their own report, released one week after the industry's, says precisely the opposite: Larger, older trees will remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Israel at 60: Paying price of a blooming desert
It’s an irony of history that the very success of the Jewish state is causing many of its current problems. The founders, some of whom are still with us because it wasn’t that long ago, never dreamed it would turn out this good this fast. They didn’t plan for it.
E.P.A. Proposes New Limits on Lead in the Air, the First Revision in 30 Years
WASHINGTON — For the first time in 30 years, the Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a new limit for lead concentrations in the air.The agency is under court order to complete a new rule by Sept. 1, because of a lawsuit brought by environmentalists.
Global warming guilt and record oil prices
The reasons commonly espoused don't fully explain the more than 10 fold jump in crude oil prices over the last decade. Maybe, oil is pricey because we all have started feeling guilty about consuming it!
Time for Michigan to plug in to green energy
This wacky time in the world of energy, however, brings great opportunities as well as obvious dangers for Michigan."We're at an inflection point right now," venture capitalist John Denniston told me Thursday, for the viability of a potentially huge new industry built around renewable alternative-energy technologies.
Review of Kunstler's post-peak novel by a woman who has lived the life
Most writers about the End of Civilization jump to the idea that the man will rule again and the woman will retreat. I suppose this is much less prone in minority communities where often the matriarch is the dominate force. But in European-based cultures, there is this strong belief that women will retreat to the house. But this is a false idea. For in Medieval Europe, the women worked in the fields just like the men. And herded animals or chopped firewood. They did all sorts of things. The one difference was, they did two major, extra chores: birthing of children and all things to do with weaving. Spinning wool was something even the queen did as she sat upon her throne up until 1200 AD.
C.I.A. Chief Lists Population as a Top Concern
Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, yesterday described three troublesome trends that distinguish this century from the last, and the exploding populations of poor places topped his list. Interestingly, energy shortages (and climate change) were not on his list.
I never for one instant thought that the invasion of Iraq and overthrowing Saddam Hussein was part of some ploy to take control of Iraq's oil, and I still don't. That was small potatoes in the big picture -- it was about securing the free flow of oil from the Middle East to the industrial world.Because without oil, our entire civilization comes to a crashing halt.
How we can fix U.S. energy policy
There are five clear examples of how the federal government has exacerbated this problem and how Congress could alleviate the mess it helped create...
India: Uranium shortage has hit N-power plants
NEW DELHI: The government has finally admitted that India’s nuclear power plants are operating below capacity, and with declining profits.Answering a question in Parliament last week, the government said, "Currently, there is a mismatch in the demand and supply of indigenous uranium. As a result, this capacity is being operated at lower power level, matching fuel supply."
"People are cleaning out their houses of gold, silver, whatever, to get money just to fill their cars with gas," said Nat Leonard, 51, whose grandfather opened Society Hill in 1929. "People are pawning out like crazy."Business is up maybe 20 percent over last year.
"With this economy, we're not done yet with bad times," Leonard continued. "Not even close."
Things are so awful, he said, he's getting loads of first-time customers.
Scientists to ‘recreate sun’ in hunt for energy
A NUCLEAR fusion laboratory designed to recreate the temperatures and pressures inside the sun could be built in Oxfordshire under plans being drawn up by British scientists The aim is to build the world’s most powerful lasers and use them to blast tiny pellets of hydrogen fuel to create energy.The process could, say the researchers, be a partial solution to the world’s energy crisis, offering a source of safe, carbon-free power with a minimum of radio-active waste.
Expert: $100,000 in concrete could have protected Snettisham line
Alaska Electric Light & Power Co. President Tim McLeod said the electric company never imagined avalanches so big would hit the line.Avalanche diversion expert David McClung said a relatively cheap concrete wedge structure at the base of each tower could have deflected the tons of force delivered by the avalanches, protecting the line.
McClung estimated the cost to protect the exposed towers with diversion structures to be $100,000. It's a negligible cost compared to the millions the energy crisis will cost Juneau, he said.
Kunstler novel visits future world with no oil or electricity
In his best-selling nonfiction book “The Long Emergency” (2005), James Howard Kunstler argued that we would soon face a crisis that would force some radical changes for America and other countries around the world. His newest work “World Made by Hand” (Atlantic Monthly Press, $24, 317 pages) is a speculative piece of fiction that brings that future world into sharp focus.“My book is sort of nostalgia for the future,” said Kunstler in a recent interview from his home near Saratoga Springs. “It’s a future world that’s more tranquil. People aren’t tyrannized by automobiles and machines and computers. They aren’t being bombarded by incessant commercials and ads.”
City Council to look at gas-price effects: Goals include education and emergency plan
BELLINGHAM - Delta Airlines limited services here recently because of gas prices.Whatcom County officials voted down a new, larger Lummi Island ferry because it would have cost another $500,000 for fuel.
Area residents are feeling the dollar crunch at the gas pumps, too.
Get the picture? City Council member Jack Weiss hopes so.
Monday night Weiss and other council members will discuss the creation of a local peak oil task force that will study how ever-increasing fuel prices and the potential for decreasing oil production will affect the local economy, government and the public.
Candidate campaigns for democracy and against the agenda of an American Empire to take-over Canada
In Russia after World War II and during the Cold War, it was believed that Russia was nearly out of oil because its wells were nearly dry. Now they have replenished and over 70 % of crude oil pumped in Russia is being exported. The oil wells somehow replenished themselves and peak oil is just another myth used to create fear.
The theory of peak oil holds that at some point — a year from now, a decade — global production of crude will peak, possibly plateau and then inexorably decline. On the eve of the Offshore Technology Conference here, the latest production figures for non-OPEC sources, 60 percent of global supply, indicate output has stalled at about 50 million barrels a day.The flat production is particularly worrisome, because it comes at a time of record-high prices that ordinarily would stimulate production growth. As that has not occurred, the world's capacity to produce oil from conventional sources might have been reached.
As Gas Costs Soar, Buyers Flock to Small Cars
DETROIT — Soaring gas prices have turned the steady migration by Americans to smaller cars into a stampede.In what industry analysts are calling a first, about one in five vehicles sold in the United States was a compact or subcompact car during April, based on monthly sales data released Thursday. Almost a decade ago, when sport utility vehicles were at their peak of popularity, only one in every eight vehicles sold was a small car.
The switch to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles has been building in recent years, but has accelerated recently with the advent of $3.50-a-gallon gas. At the same time, sales of pickup trucks and large sport utility vehicles have dropped sharply.
In another first, fuel-sipping four-cylinder engines surpassed six-cylinder models in popularity in April.
“It’s easily the most dramatic segment shift I have witnessed in the market in my 31 years here,” said George Pipas, chief sales analyst for the Ford Motor Company.
Brown calls for pressure on OPEC on oil price
LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown called on Sunday for international pressure on oil producers' group OPEC to bring oil prices down."Clearly oil prices are very high. Clearly also there needs to be some international effort with OPEC to get the oil price down," he said in an interview with Sky News.
It was not absolutely clear why the oil price had remained stubbornly high, he said.
It's the oil crisis of the Seventies back to haunt us
THERE'S been a lot of bull talked about a temporary little problem with oil. That's why the OPEC president's prediction last week that oil prices will rise to $200 a barrel especially if the dollar stays weak, will stun the Department of Finance. The piston in the National Development Plan is the assumption that oil would be $100 per barrel (42 gallons) by 2020. The Government's big strategy, so clearly priced on pre-peak oil economics is already bog-roll, but, officially, the Government is sticking to the daft idea that our energy input costs will remain a constant for the next 12 years and plans to build an infrastructure for the oil age.
Grangemouth dispute was UK's costliest ever
One source who has been closely involved with negotiations between the two sides said the figures involved were "simply astronomical".He also revealed that senior Government figures were closely involved in ensuring the two sides entered negotiations to end the dispute as quickly as possible.
The sight of a convoy of giant tankers last week carrying emergency petrol supplies to the UK is a glimpse into the future. Last weekend's strike at the Ineos refinery at Grangemouth, which helped push up oil prices to a new record of $120 a barrel, reminded us how dependent we have become on North Sea oil - and how we will have to cope in the not-too-distant future when it's all gone.
They’ve got us over a $120 oil barrel
Is the head of Opec right about a $200 oil price? Will a more realistic target, $150, be reached this year and what would be the consequences of that for the economy? Why has oil been surging anyway, doubling in price in a year?
Rebels bomb Colombian pipeline
Colombia's Cano Limon oil pipeline was paralyzed for a third day after it was bombed by rebels on April 29, state-run Ecopetrol SA said.The pipeline, which carries 100,000 barrels of oil a day from a field shared by Ecopetrol and Occidental Petroleum Corp., was expected to resume operation over the weekend after military-escorted engineers finished repairs, an Ecopetrol spokeswoman said.
THE economic slowdown in the US and its impact on China and India can potentially reduce energy consumption and affect oil price negatively, a leading banker has said.John R Wright said that none could say for sure the oil price would remain at the current high level for long.
‘King Faisal Stood Firm on Oil Embargo’
RIYADH — The United States threatened to use force against Saudi Arabia in 1973 after King Faisal, along with other Arab leaders, imposed an oil embargo on countries that supported Israel during the October War, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former intelligence chief and ambassador to Washington, said in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat yesterday....He added that American officials talked about the possibility of attacking Saudi oil fields, something that was leaked in US newspapers. Some of these statements came from the then US State Secretary Henry Kissinger.
No respite from high inflation for Gulf states
Inflation in Saudi Arabia and four other Gulf oil producers will probably soar to at least 9 percent this year as rents and global commodity prices surge and falling interest rates spur lending, a Reuters poll showed.In dollar-pegged Saudi Arabia and Oman, average inflation may more than double as the weaker US currency makes some imports to the world's biggest oil-exporting region more expensive, according to the poll of 17 economists and analysts.
Nigerian Militants Kidnap Two In Attack On Oil Ship - Army
LAGOS (AFP)--Nigerian militants attacked an oil ship off the coast of the west African country and took two people hostage, a military spokesman said Sunday.
Russian April oil output falls again, exports rise
MOSCOW, May 4 (Reuters) - Russian oil production fell for a fourth month in row in April, confirming pessimistic forecasts for the year, when it is expected to fall for the first time in a decade, while exports rose on the back of improved weather.Energy Ministry data released on Sunday showed production stood at 9.72 million barrels per day, down from 9.76 million bpd in March and over 2 percent lower compared to the post-Soviet high of 9.93 million bpd in October last year.
In absolute figures, March production was over 6 million barrels - the size of six large tankers - down from October.
Russia Will Raise Oil Export Tax by 17% to Record
(Bloomberg) -- Russia will increase its crude export tax by 17 percent to a record on June 1, after oil prices rose in March and April.The tax will be set at $398.10 a metric ton, the seventh consecutive increase, Alexander Sakovich, deputy head of the Finance Ministry's customs department, said by telephone in Moscow today. The current duty is $340.10 a ton, or $46.40 a barrel.
BP oil trading comes under scrutiny
WASHINGTON -- Eight years ago, Federal Trade Commission investigators believed that BP occasionally exported oil from Alaska's North Slope to Asia in an effort to drive up spot crude oil prices on the West Coast.
Long-awaited electric sports car rolls out
After several years of development, the Roadster -- with sleek lines like a Ferrari or Porsche and a sticker price of $109,000 -- moves from the drawing boards to the market next week when Tesla's first store opens. It's near the University of California, Los Angeles, in the city's tony Westwood neighborhood, where Beverly Hills, Brentwood and Hollywood practically intersect.
Mexican oil production is a concern for U.S.
Mexico's oil production is in a dangerously steep decline. Why should that matter to the United States? Because Mexico exports 1.2 million barrels of oil per day to the United States, which is 8 percent of the U.S. supplies.
In Mexico, Pemex isn't enough - Oil giant can't do exploration alone
The irony is this: Even if Pemex were able to take all of the exhibited technology at this week's Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) back to Mexico in a giant shopping bag, it would still not be enough.If the U.S. experience is any guide, in relation to Mexico's deepwater fields, it is irrelevant how strong you make Pemex. You can gold-plate Pemex, but if Mexico has only one oil company at work, the effort will fail.
On the U.S. side it took 20 years, drilling 70-100 wells per year, $100 billion and 100 companies working to produce 1.5 million barrels per day. Mexico can do the same — but not with just one oil company.
We're Nearing Crunch Time for Oil
It’s looking increasingly like Crunch Time for oil will be in effect during the 2010 to 2016 time frame. I’m being optimistic in forecasting an end date for it, but the starting time is, if not etched in stone, predictable with some substantial certainty.
Ho, ho, hey, hey, 'peak oil' here to stay
Yes, we'll see fluctuations in prices, but long term, the hard numbers of the "peak oil" argument cannot be escaped. In the short term, chances are good that we'll be paying $200 or more for a barrel of oil. And we're shocked that it's passed $100.
A tax on carbon worthy of debate
With anger rising over the cost of gasoline, Ottawa watchers cannot understand how Dion could possibly think he would win over voters with a promise to make them pay even more. Surely, say the pundits, even a policy wonk like Dion must know he would be committing political suicide if he were to adopt such a wonky position.But Dion has no chance of persuading voters that the idea has merit, if he doesn't put it out for discussion and debate, as he has now done.
Can We Survive? (Part 2) (PDF)
In Part 1, we argued for the rapid deployment of what we called “first-round survival technologies.” These technologies are designed to satisfy certain of mankind’s fundamental needs while buying additional time to hold global warming within tolerable limits — long enough, it is hoped, to make other substantive changes that are required for humankind’s survival. Without such technologies, many climate researchers believe that our opportunity to prevent intolerable climate change may evaporate in fewer than ten years.
Farmers face climate challenge in quest for more food
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - If farmers think they have a tough time producing enough rice, wheat and other grain crops, global warming is going to present a whole new world of challenges in the race to produce more food, scientists say.
It's really great to see the list of stories today regarding Peak Oil. The Huston Chronicle story, Plateau, even uses the words "Peak Oil".
Now, what do we find on the political front, where the rubber meets the road? Well, yesterday, Mrs. Clinton gave a talk about oil at the North Carolina Auto Racing Hall of Fame. So, here we are nearing the mid point in the election process and 2 of the 3 candidates are telling us that we need to reduce the pump price of oil, when our problem is that oil and gasoline have been too cheap for so long that we think the oil will last forever. If the election comes down to Clinton vs. McCain, who will deliver the message about peak oil? Will either of them say we need to raise gas prices, which must happen if the shortage is to be communicated to the man (and woman) on the freeway? I doubt it.
E. Swanson
Two out of three? Try three out of three. One of the reasons Obama is against the gas tax holiday is that he says it doesn't work: prices will rise to make up for the tax cut. He is in favor of stopping oil purchases for the SPR - in order to lower prices for us drivers.
Nobody currently running is going to say we need to raise gas prices. Heck, even the Green Party isn't going to tell people they have to drive less. Their stance on it, last time I checked, was to switch all cars over to natural gas. Yeah, that'll work.
::sniff, sniff:: Ahhh, the sweet smell of sarcasm in the morning. Fresh as dew on a new blossom.
Ditto in Germany. When the Greens proposed raising the price of petrol to 5DM / liter (approx. €2,50) in their draft programme for the 1998 Federal Elections, the media reaction was so hostile that it soon became clear that they risked wiping themselves out. The realpolitiker in the party were quick to re-write the draft programme and the idea was eventually dropped. I don't think it's been heard of again.
German-speaking TOD readers might like to consult the chronology of this cautionary tale here:
http://www.politik.uni-mainz.de/kai.arzheimer/bamberg/Bamberg.html
You have left off the entire framework of various German Ökosteuer (call them environmental taxes in German), including the raising of the gasoline tax in steps over a period of 5 years - 'Die Mineralölsteuer wurde nach ökologischen Kriterien gestaffelt; dabei wurden bestimmte Verwendungszwecke begünstigt. Von 1999 bis 2003 wurde die Steuer mehrmals erhöht.' http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%96kosteuer
The Greens are a very interesting case, since it is easy to attack some of their more naive proposals - including, from what I have been told, the idea of only using animals to farms, coming from the very beginning of the Green Party.
Of course, for years the CDU insisted that women's proper role did not involve such jobs as actually being the Chancellor, but oddly, no one makes fun of how the CDU has compromised its principles by having Merkel the head of the party.
Expat,
I was writing a comment, not a treatise. My point is that no political party can afford to bite the bullet and call for a radical increase in fuel taxation -- least of all today. But thanks for the information on the 'gradualist' approach.
There's nothing 'naive' as such about proposing a hike in fuel tax. What's naive is expecting that you will be able to convince more than 1% of the electorate that it's not naive.
As to Angela Merkel -- political parties couldn't care less about the sex of their leaders provided they win at election time. Margaret Thatcher (first leading politician to cotton on to climate change, BTW) had no problems with the Tories either. Where did you get the idea that the CDU had any principled opposition to women PMs?
Mainly because the conservative Catholic part of the CDU was a devoted follower of the 'Kinder, Küche, Kirche' framework - 'a German slogan translated “children, kitchen, church”. In present-day Germany, it has a derogative connotation describing an antiquated female role model. The phrase is vaguely equivalent to the English Barefoot and pregnant.' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinder,_K%C3%BCche,_Kirche (not a very good link)
And it is not exactly a coincidence that Merkel is East German - most West German women found more hospitable political homes in other parties, in part because most West German women who wanted to live in ways not encompassed by traditional role models pretty much realized that the CDU was their opponent, at least in the past.
Things change, of course. Now, the Christian Democratic mayor of Hamburg (who while gay, is not in a civil union like the SPD mayor of Hamburg or the head of the FDP) is allied with the Greens to retain power. A generation ago, the CDU was also the most reliably anti-gay party.
As pointed out by Radlafari, the 5 mark tax died, but increased taxation of energy did not.
The Greens are to a major extent being proved correct in their forecasts - I would not say that raising energy taxes is political suicide in Germany, at least as long as it is coupled with positive benefits - the growing number of PV system installations and home insulation standards being concrete examples.
The original Green tax proposal was clumsy, and then whipped into a firestorm by the Bild. What is forgotten is how Kohl raised the gasoline tax several times, without the same accompanying outrage.
That is true. And it shows that it isn't so much the message that comes to voters, but even more the person who sends it. Always reminds me of Franz-Josef Degenhardt's lyrics:
".. und wer alt war, galt als weise,
und wer dick war galt als stark.
Und den dicken Alten glaubte man
aufs Wort und ohne Arg .."
Five deutschmarks for a litre of gas (this compares to ~$14 the gallon today) was widely perceived as completely overdrawn in 1998. However, after the green-red coalition took power in late 1998 they soon imposed an additional tax on petrol, the "Oeko-Steuer", which remained untouched when the new coalition government (without the greens) in 2005 took power.
The top article about Dion in CA proposing to increase taxes on energy shows that at least a few politicians are willing to take it on. That sounds like policy implementation along lines of Homer-Dixon at BC NDP Convention.
Conventional politicians - coming from and representing the developer and business-as-usual class - are not going to take on transformative issues. They will delay and avoid them as long as possible. For the most part, those proposing solutions will have to challenge from outside any major party structure. Hint, hint, nudge, nudge to any of you so inclinded.
cfm in Gray, ME
I think change is possible, but it won't come from the Oval Office. Not in the current political climate.
These days, it seems change is coming from the grassroots level. An example is gay marriage. It started on the state and local level, with mayors of scattered cities granting marriage licenses to gay couples, and with one state, Massachusetts, making gay marriage legal. This totally freaked out the Democratic party, which correctly saw this as a losing issue on the national level. I think they probably did pay the price; Bush's victory in 2004 seems to have been driven at least partly by opposition to gay marriage. But overall, I have to say it was a victory for gay rights advocates. Acceptance of gay marriage has progressed far faster than I ever imagined possible. I thought they were making a big mistake by pushing it - that it was too early, and that there would be a big backlash. I was wrong.
A model like that is more likely to work than hoping the president "sees the light" on peak oil. Already, states are taking the lead on environmental issues (and being sued by the EPA for their trouble). The ultimate goal may be a national policy, but the start is grassroots.
But, but, "gay marriage" isn't...
"Marriage", to many of us, is the union between a man and a woman. OK, I know that lots of other folks (perhaps you, Leanan), don't see it that way, but that's the way the word has been defined for centuries. A legal recognition of the joining between 2 of like sex might be called a "civil union" or something like that, but, a "marriage" it would not be. It's sort of like saying that the word, "red" means the same as the word "green".
I'm not concerned with the religious point of view, so forget that batch of arguments. The way I look at it, for what it's worth, is that society long ago decided to promote the union between a man and a woman as the best way to reproduce and educate the young, because that's what works. As a result, society (in the form of governments) has given various subsidies to those who have chosen "marriage". In so doing, society has discriminated against other social arrangements, such as 2 gays living as a couple. Society has also decided that it's bad for teenagers to have sex and states have laws defining statutory rape (i.e., sex with someone less than, say, age 18) as a crime. Prostitution and polygamy also illegal in almost all states. How many rational people would advocate making these other activities legal?
What the "gay rights" advocates want is to have their sexual orientation legalized and to be able to enjoy the same subsidies which accrue to those who are married. Well, I think that's a bad idea for society. Witness the frequent failure of children from single parent households. Perhaps a better idea would be civil unions for every sort of arrangement, with no subsidies of any sort. That might actually help reduce population growth, as the tax breaks and other benefits for making babies would go away too.
May we live in interesting times...:<(
E. Swanson
That wasn't really my point. I was talking about how to achieve political change in this country, not the benefits of marriage, for anyone. But hey, the ideal family structure could be sort of considered on topic, I guess.
Even if you're right...words change meaning all the time. Even words for colors. English is a living language, and all that.
That is simply not correct. Other societies have allowed gay marriage, and polygyny, and even polyandry. Marriage is basically an economic contract. When the economy changes, so does the nature of marriage.
I don't see how that follows. If it's bad for children to come from single parent households (and I think that's questionable), then you should encourage marriage of all kinds. A child living with two parents of the same gender is not a child from a single parent household. Many states already allow gay couples to adopt and foster children, and of course, just because you are gay doesn't mean you can't have biological children.
FWIW...I think the "natural" family structure for children is the extended family. Not the nuclear family, which is an odd fluke and basically the product of the industrial age. Yes, having two parents is better than having one. But having three or four is better than having two. It's the ratio of parents to children that matters most.
Erm, seems to me we may want to applaud, even encourage gay marriage. After all, wouldn't this affect population growth in a negative, and therefore positive, way?
(The sarcasm glass is half full, here.)
Dunno about marriage in particular, but I could see homosexuality being encouraged in a society that was concerned about sustainability. In fact, that may have been the case in Japan. They were very accepting of homosexuality (and to this day are accepting of it in ways Americans find shocking). I suspect it was one of the ways they dealt with population issues. They are also very accepting of abortion compared to us, and have a tradition of relatively late marriage compared Europe.
"but I could see homosexuality being encouraged in a society that was concerned about sustainability"
There used to be a joke Leanan: "I can remember when sex was dirty and the air was clean."
The USA is young in population and historically immature unlike India, China, Japan or Europe. Also when it comes to prioritizing our landbase we have behaved like adolescents with Daddy's credit card. I can't think of a credible argument that all of this "infrastructure" has been worth what we gave up in exchange: clean air, healthy forests, stable eco-systems. When I hear arguments that we're going to somehow keep all of it going, all I can do is shake my head and say, "not gonna happen".
30 years from now (if we are able to continue to grow our population exponentially) people will have a dramatically different attitude about procreation. Forget about gay politics, how about vesectomies for teenage boys? Too bold you say. Circumstances change and so do peoples views. Granting tax subsidies for children, welfare payments for unwed, unemployed mothers and large families tooling around in Chevy Tahoes are soon to be tossed on the historical trashheap along with strong central governments and the golden age of the American Dollar.
Human Populations will either be reduced through social engineering or we'll get a new Dictator: Gaia.
References to vasectomies are illogical-you could sterilize 95% of all human males without lowering population growth at all. If actual lessening of population growth is the goal, you need to sterilize the female population-one guy can father literally thousands of offspring.
Brian, wake up, you're having a wet dream!
The number of sperm a guy can generate is hardly a determinant of how many kids he could Actually father. There are those thousands of potential mothers who might have some influence in the guy's effluents.
Jok: Wake up-you're talking nonsense again. In terms of population growth, the human female is the limiting factor. This isn't a question to debate or ponder.
"If actual lessening of population growth is the goal, you need to sterilize the female population-one guy can father literally thousands of offspring."
As the saying goes, you're not even wrong. Talking about massive, forced sterilizations of either gender is a ticket to insurrection and pop. overreaction, in the first place. If you have a goal of lessening pop growth, educating and supporting women is what works. This also gives decent odds on getting the next generations fed and educated as well.
"the human female is the limiting factor. This isn't a question to debate or ponder." It's so easy to jump into Eugenics when having a distanced and hypothetical conversation.. but that doesn't make the conclusions realistic. There are a lot of limiting factors besides the flowrate for gestation.
Jok: Whatever. News flash: there are not going to be "massive, forced sterilizations" so you can relax on this one.
That is quite true. That is probably the reason females are considered "inferior" in so many cultures. It's a justification for female infanticide, which was a common method of population control in the days before reliable birth control.
That is the reason I think it's possible that "men will rule again" if society collapses. We'll have the same sustainability issues our ancestors had, and I suspect we'll solve them in similar ways. It has nothing to do with whether women can farm or fight.
I don't buy it.
I think the devaluing of women in the modern age has been a function of our fear/loathing of 'nature' as we mastered Physics and Force projection, and created the forms of Imperialism and Colonialism that have crushed and exploited any 'resource' that was weak enough to be overtaken.
Can't source it at the moment.. I should remember to stay clear of these Population threads..
I don't see how that follows.
Women are often devalued in cultures under population pressure, even those that are not imperialist or colonialist. This can usually be seen in the sex ratios. If one gender is favored over the other, it shows up in the sex ratios.
Note that it doesn't have to be outright infanticide. It can just be favoritism. Feeding some children more than others, giving the boys better medical care than the girls, etc.
Personally, I wonder if this won't change, at least in the sense that women with access to weapons (ones that don't require male strength for maximum efficiency) will not accept it.
There is a parallel (in a mirror image way) - Japan in the age of the shoguns, where guns were banned to preserve the feudal order.
Personally, I don't think there is all that much 'native' difference in men or women being able to kill in their own interests. The difference is mainly one of socialization - and at this point, at least in societies like that of the U.S., younger women are being trained with the same techniques that younger men are, in terms of military experience. Not to mention video games, of course.
No predictions of the future, but I think the idea that women will return to the roles of centuries past is less likely than many here assume.
I don't think ability to kill really has anything to do with it. There have been cultures in the past where the women were the soldiers (or were at least as free to be warriors as men).
The difference is childbearing. As pointed out above, control of females is control of fertility.
I have known since the 60's (Zero Population Growth was all the rage) the mathematical certainities of the capacity of Gaia to feed its inhabitants. I see starvation daily in the papers and other news, and am supposed to become immune to it?
Maybe its like toilet odor - after a while I don't smell it anymore? Well I do - and it grieves me to no end to see the haves waste so much while the have nots suffer so much.
The paradigm of homosexuality is an enigma to me. My Christian beliefs on this run very contrary to my observations of the result of unbridled breeding. I have known since High school the fate of yeast in a petri dish.
I elected not to marry ( my stubbornness with the opposite sex convinced the ladies to agree ), but come tax time I dearly pay for not spawning off a bunch of deductions and tax credits. They don't see what I would spawn off ( experimentation with alternative refrigerants and ice bank technologies for thermal energy storage ) as worthy of tax credit, much less a stipend. I now depend completely on society to support me if I can no longer do so ( and I do not expect them to do much more than get me disposed of).
Yet, I wonder if even my God wants me because I feel more comfortable around my own sex. I am too much of a scientist/engineer to be much of a lover. My love is in my lab. Hell, I do not even make a good employee because I honor physical law before office politics.
No, this is not a solicitation for employment. I take pride in building resilient systems. I have systems in place that will sustain me for the rest of my life. However my output is highly constrained as this requires input. When other people need this output, hopefully I will still be able to deliver, but I am aging, and research takes time.
Steve
And that is not a coincidence. I think the point of the Christian view is pretty obvious. No sex unless you're married. You can only marry another Christian. And, in some flavors of Christianity, no birth control allowed.
Obviously, the point is to outnumber the heathens. Good for Christianity, not necessarily good for those who practice it, for the planet, or for anyone else.
you wrote:
Perhaps I should have prefaced my comment with something like "Western" societies. The point which I was attempting to get across was that our society (as embodied in our laws) has chosen to promote heterosexual marriage. Whether or not that is the best choice or remain so in future, that's what's evolved in the U.S. Maybe marriage with it's attendant problems of divorce and single parent child care, will become obsolete. Maybe we will go back to the days of feudal lords who had the "right" to deflower any maiden within his realm. Or, maybe a more hedonistic "Playboy" model of anything goes will become the norm (as if it hasn't already here in Redneckistan). I think we've seen quite a bit of what's been called "serial monogamy" in the cities of the U.S., and our national obsession with "being sexy" has produced TV shows like "Sex in the City" and "Desperate Housewives".
At the same time, there's the fact that health issues do exist, such as birth control and STD's, not least of which is HIV, which is still incurable. Recall the report a while back in which it was shown that something like half of black female teenagers have been infected with some STD. As the effectiveness of our available antibiotics continues to decline, STD's may again become a major scourge.
None of which changes the accepted notion that marriage is defined as a union between a man and a woman...
E. Swanson