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DrumBeat: August 20, 2008
Posted by Leanan on August 20, 2008 - 9:12am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Petrobras Will `Need a Miracle' to Hit Output Target, Itau Says
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, will ``need a miracle'' to meet its forecast for production this year, Itau Corretora said, citing July results that ``continue to disappoint.''Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro-based company is known, produced 1.87 million barrels of crude oil and natural-gas liquids per day in Brazil in July, almost unchanged from June, according to data posted on the company's Web site yesterday.
Energy Secretary Bodman hospitalized
WASHINGTON — Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman checked himself into Massachusetts General Hospital on Tuesday after experiencing an elevated heart rate, the Energy Department said today.Bodman's heart rate has since stabilized, and he was resting comfortably, a spokeswoman said.
Dingmann Says Oil May Fall Below $100 Before Rebounding: Video
(Bloomberg) -- Neal Dingmann, director of equity research at Dahlman Rose & Co., talks with Bloomberg's Rhonda Schaffler in New York about the U.S. Energy Department's report on oil and gasoline supplies and its market implications, the outlook for oil and natural gas prices, and his recommendations of Mariner Energy Inc. and W&T Offshore Inc. Crude supplies increased 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million last week, the largest gain since March 2001 and more than the 1 million-barrel gain analysts expected.
Gulf lease sale attracts high-dollar attention
Norway's Statoil bet $61 million that significant oil and gas deposits lie beneath the Gulf of Mexico seafloor more than 160 miles south of Galveston, according to lease sale results released by the federal government today.The company submitted the highest of 423 bids for leases on 90-square-mile blocks in the western part of the Gulf for the Interior Department's latest lease sale this week.
UN to offer proposals to defuse tensions in Iraqi north
BAGHDAD: The United Nations will offer proposals to solve disputes over the oil city of Kirkuk and other troublesome regions in northern Iraq, UN officials said Wednesday.
Brazilian Oil May Be Shipped Through New Texas Offshore Port
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil, home to the Western Hemisphere's biggest oil discovery in three decades, may ship crude to U.S. refiners through a $1.8 billion offshore Texas port scheduled to open in 2010.
Official: Accident causes Libyan oil facility fire
TRIPOLI, Libya: Libya's top oil official said Wednesday a fire that broke out in an eastern oil facility was caused by an industrial accident.Shokri Ghanem, the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said the fire continued to rage for a second day but has been contained to one tank in the Ras Lanuf oil complex. Ghanem called the fire "an industrial accident."
OPEC, peak oil and the end of cheap gas
Yet amid all the discussion about peak oil, one voice has been conspicuously absent, that of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC's position on the petroleum-resource question should be the decisive factor in this ongoing and seemingly inconclusive debate. The organization now supplies about 42 percent of the world's petroleum and, unlike all other producers, OPEC members have quotas that are adjusted to insure that supply and demand are in equilibrium: If non-OPEC production were to either reach a plateau or begin to decline, OPEC producers would need to increase production substantially to meet ever-increasing world demand.Oddly then, OPEC has been virtually silent on this issue. Their quiet refusal to comment cannot be due to lack of interest or expertise: OPEC now has its own research group that produces an annual World Oil Outlook and a Monthly Market Report that rival the work of any other energy forecasting group. Similarly, OPEC is certainly aware of the U.S. Geological Survey's World Petroleum Assessment Project, which for the first time brought industry and government experts together to evaluate world oil and gas resources. And OPEC is surely cognizant of ExxonMobil's projection of a non-OPEC production peak by 2010 and the extensive discussion of petroleum resources in trade journals and the popular press.
Thus, OPEC's reasons for not publicly engaging in the peak oil debate must reside outside the rational business of drilling wells, building pipelines and refineries, and making market forecasts. Dissimulation or silence on the part of OPEC on these issues is a matter of prudence and subtle calculation.
Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia
Syria sought to revive its security alliance with Russia today, when President Bashar al-Assad arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements, raising fears that the new Cold War that has erupted in the Caucasus will spill over into the Middle East.
Iraq invites Russian oil major back
MOSCOW - An Iraqi Cabinet minister invited Russia's Lukoil on Wednesday to renew its bid on the lucrative West Qurna-2 oil field and urged Russian companies to seek roles rebuilding dilapidated power plants as Iraq searches for foreign investment to revive its oil industry and infrastructure.
Iraq condemns oil majors' "humanitarian" failure
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A top Iraqi official on Wednesday attacked oil majors for trying to overcharge the war-torn nation and ignoring their "humanitarian" duty to help develop Iraq's battered oil industry."Foreign companies, including Russian companies, have not taken up the call to develop these projects. As a result of them not wanting to work in these conditions, the Iraqi people have suffered greatly," Karim Waheed, Iraq's electricity minister, said at a news conference in Moscow.
Lula undecided on new Brazil state oil company
SAO GANCALO DO AMARANTE, Brazil, Aug 20 (Reuters) - President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Wednesday he had not decided whether to create a new state-run oil company to manage oil production from Brazil's new subsalt reserves."No new state company exists. I am not against or in favor. I'm only going to receive proposals (from the commission) on Sept. 19. When I see it, we will make a decision that will be made known to the Brazilian public," Lula told journalists in northeastern Brazil.
Storm fears left local gas stations high and dry
As Tropical Storm Fay approached Southwest Florida on Monday evening, Manatee motorists made a run on gasoline, draining a handful of stations around town of their supply.
Petro-Canada gas supply still coming up short
Alberta and British Columbia are hardest hit by the break down.As many as 90 stations have seen their shipments stop completely and have closed their pumps.
Some independent retailers also rely on Petro-Canada fuel are also feeling the shortage.
South Africa Plans LNG Plant to Ease Power Shortage, Poten Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Africa plans to build a liquefied natural gas import terminal and hire two tankers which can process the gas onboard to meet demand for the fuel from power plants and prevent power cuts, a consultant said.
China says gas output may more than triple by 2030
BEIJING (Bloomberg) -- China said annual natural gas output may more than triple to 250 billion cubic meters by 2030 as the world’s second-biggest energy consumer intensifies petroleum exploration to meet its fuel needs.Oil production may remain at 200 million metric tons a year by 2030, the Ministry of Land and Resources said in a statement on its Web site. China has recoverable oil reserves of 21.2 billion tons and gas deposits of 22 trillion cubic meters, the ministry said.
India: Curb on bulk purchase of diesel by non-transport sector urged
CHENNAI: Oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil Corporation plan to approach the State government to assist them curb bulk purchase of diesel in barrels by customers, particularly by companies for power generator sets.This comes in the wake of the soaring demand for the subsidised fuel from the non-transport sector, which the oil firms cite as one of main reasons for the product running frequently out of stock at retail outlets in the recent weeks.
Oil exploration — a lot of looking, not much finding
I discussed the short-term weakness in oil prices. Let’s discuss the long term. Oil is headed back up, for all the familiar reasons.Really, it’s not like anyone is finding new large oil deposits out in exploration land. Indeed, a whole lot of looking is leading to not very much finding in the exploration patch.
The big Oil companies are taking oil out of the ground. But generally, they are not replacing their reserves through reserve growth or resource expansion. To the extent that the oil companies are expanding reserves in the short term, it’s by searching further out in the ocean or further north in the ANWR And that raises the cost structure for production.
It’s a rare oil company that replaces its annual output with new reserves.
Wastelands to Bio-Diesel Farms: An Indian State’s Answer to Diesel Fuel Shortage
Worried and uncertain about meeting its energy requirements in the near future, the Indian agricultural state of Uttar Pradesh is now taking to bio-fueling itself! The state government has just released a plan to turn wastelands throughout the state into bio-diesel farms by cultivating Jatropha on over 40 per cent of the total wasteland. Also, and contrary to the state policies so far, the wasteland will not be taken over by the government and instead farmers will be allotted land and will be provided with necessary technical assistance to facilitate a good crop.
House of Lords suggests lifting VAT from cost of repairing electrical goods
VAT should be lifted from the cost of repairing televisions, vacuum cleaners and fridges to discourage people from throwing them away as soon as they stop working, the Government will be told today.
Petrol pump pilgrims keep faith
A prayer group in Washington DC is claiming the credit for the recent sharp drop in the US price of petrol.Rocky Twyman, 59, a veteran community campaigner, started Pray At The Pump meetings at petrol stations in April.
Since then, the average price of what the US calls gasoline has fallen from more than $4 a gallon to $3.80.
China may further raise tariffs to tackle power crunch
BEIJING (Reuters) - After two tariff increases in as many months totalling 10 percent, China may have set itself on a fast track to reform the world's second-largest electricity market and end the worst supply crunch in four years. Within this year and maybe within weeks, the government may announce another hike either on wholesale or retail prices, or both, to lift its generators into the black and curb consumption by power-hungry sectors, analysts said.Having exhausted almost all its policy tools to ease coal shortage -- the main culprit for this summer's power crisis which has forced rationing in nearly half the country -- tariff hikes were left as the last effective solutions.
Quinnipiac poll shows that economy is still No. 1 issue among voters
While the economy is still the number one concern among Americans likely to vote in this election season, the rising cost of fuel and the current energy crisis is an issue that's climbing into the forefront, the latest Quinnipiac University Poll shows.
Goodbye Future, Give Us Right Now
If we have entered an era in which oil, a finite resource, is in shorter supply, and thus more expensive, we need to stop holding onto the past with a death grip - and think about the future.
York oil dealer Mike Estes of Estes Oil said the problem is not just that there's an energy crisis, "there's also a credit crisis. Oil dealers won't be able to carry the load in winter any more and allow people to pay in the summer."
The Big Chill: As the heating season nears, Vermonters' worries grow
Like many Vermonters, Randy Babcock is very worried about how he will pay for heating fuel this winter.But Babcock, a former truck driver who now is on disability, and his wife have another worry to deal with first: How to pay for the propane they used to heat their home last winter.
When we think about natural disasters in the United States, we usually think about hurricanes in the Southern states, wildfires out West, or tornados and flooding in the Midwest. But a winter in the Northeast? Unfortunately, with the energy crisis looming, most of us in Maine and the Northeast are rightly concerned about making it through this upcoming winter season.
Rising energy costs challenge remote Monhegan, Matinicus
Of all the residential power users in the state of Maine, the ones that pay the highest rates may be the ones that live farthest from land.Monhegan and Matinicus are two of Maine’s seven offshore island communities that have their own electric cooperatives, which charge higher rates than private retail power companies that serve the rest of the state. Because the island co-ops own and maintain their own distribution systems and have relatively few users to help cover the infrastructure costs, their members typically pay $150 for their monthly electric bills, approximately twice what residential users on the mainland pay, according to island officials.
Oil bounty a chance to share the wealth
Louisiana should use a small fraction of its new gas riches to provide more energy assistance to those most needy. To do so would put it in the company of most states, instead of in the small minority it finds itself today.
UK: Bosses find new ways to beat energy crisis
BOSSES under the kosh from soaring utility bills are thinking outside of the box in a bid to beat the energy crisis.With less price competition between rival suppliers many believe they can cut costs in more unorthodox ways.
Nigeria: Blackout worsens - Manufacturers, others lament - Ibadan in darkness for 2 weeks
AS the power situation in the country continues to worsen on a daily basis, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has cried out, lamenting the damage the incessant power outage had caused industries in recent times.As of today, the power generation in the country, according to investigation, is less than 3,000 megawatts, a situation which has put both residents and investors in darkness and out of production.
The safety of the thousands of kilometres of undersea pipes that crisscross the ocean floor off WA became a political hot potato in recent months after an explosion put Apache Energy’s main gas pipeline out of action and plunged the state into an energy crisis.However, it’s heat of a different sort that has researchers at the University of Western Australia examining the pipelines that carry oil and gas across our ocean floors in terms of possible climate change issues.
A New Fuel Saving Device Can Change the Way We Use Fuel Driving Our Car
"It may take ten years for car manufacturers to create and redesign higher fuel efficient cars, fifteen years to find and exploit fuel fossil reserves in the US and maybe twenty more years to develop safe nuclear energy providing 50% of our electricity," said the inventor, Tom Delor.It takes only a few seconds to stick Moment-O-Meter to your windshield and plug it in your cigarette lighter to upgrade your car to a fuel efficient car.
Inorganic arsenic in water may be linked with diabetes risk
Exposure to low levels of inorganic arsenic — an industrial pollutant that also is found naturally in rocks and soil — in drinking water may increase a person's risk of type 2 diabetes, researchers report in today's Journal of the American Medical Association....The study suggests factors other than body weight and inactivity may be at play in the development of type 2 diabetes, says David Marrero, professor of medicine in endocrinology and metabolism at Indiana University School of Medicine.
OPEC Oil Production Cut `Is an Option,' Libya's Ghanem Says
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, may decide to cut production at a meeting on Sept. 9 because the market is oversupplied, Libya's top oil official said.``We will study Venezuela's call for lower production, and the logic behind it,'' Shokri Ghanem, the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp. said in a telephone interview from Tripoli today. ``The market is now oversupplied. If a cut helps bring it to balance, then why not? It's an option.''
A revolution in the transport economy
If you ask most Australians today what worries them most, chances are they will respond that the ever-spiralling cost-of-living is of prime concern. The rising cost of petrol, in particular, is one factor which flows on through the transport sector to impact upon the broader economy.This tendency - felt worldwide - is worsened by tension in the Persian Gulf, and looming confrontation with Iran. In addition, there is the impact of rapidly developing economies like China and their insatiable thirst for oil.
Many commentators believe if we have not already reached “Peak Oil” we will do so soon. And as demand increasingly outstrips supply the crisis is set to worsen.
Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?
One reader was incensed that I claimed oil rose sharply in the first half of the year while demand was actually falling. Not possible, he huffed, and took my editors to task for letting such an outlandish statement get by them.But maybe my editors weren't asleep in the wine cellar (this time). The Energy Information Agency announced on Tuesday, the day after we published the column, that "U.S. oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell an average of 800,0000 barrels per day compared with the same period a year ago, the biggest drop in 26 years."
Hostage Europe blind to Iran energy
Europe has become alarmingly dependent on Russia for its energy needs, dependent on Russian gas and oil and on gas and oil from the Caspian region that flow through pipelines under Russian control and influence.
Oil Storage Tank Fire Reduces Libya's Production
(Bloomberg) -- A fire at a crude storage tank in Ras Lanuf, the site of Libya's largest oil refinery and a petroleum port, may force the North African nation to reduce output by as much as 100,000 barrels a day.
Chinese Oil Firms Combine To Conquer
China is attempting more joint takeovers to prevent its state-owned companies from vying for the same assets and bidding up prices. The teamwork also allows them to combine resources at a time when Chinese refiners are being squeezed by high crude oil prices and artificially-low retail gasoline prices due to Beijing strict price controls.
Kazakhstan sets new Kashagan deadline at Oct. 25
ALMATY (Reuters) - Talks between Kazakhstan and a group of global oil majors developing the giant Kashagan oilfield must be over by Oct. 25, the government said on Wednesday.Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev had earlier said the sides planned to finalise amendments to the Kashagan Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) by Oct. 15.
Brazil Pre-Salt Company May Sell Oil-Backed Bonds, Estado Says
(Bloomberg) -- The state-owned company Brazil is considering creating to control the country's pre-salt oil fields may sell oil-backed bonds to finance its investments, O Estado de S. Paulo reported.A government panel set up to study options for the pre-salt fields is studying that possibility, the newspaper said, without saying where it obtained the information.
India Reliance delays gasoline export on FCCU outage
SINGAPORE/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's Reliance Industries will delay shipping out at least one gasoline parcel by about seven days due to a glitch at its fluidised catalytic cracking unit (FCCU), traders said on Wednesday.The 220,000-240,000 barrels per day (bdp) FCCU is one of the biggest in the world. Reliance's Jamnagar refining complex has a total capacity of 660,000 bpd.
"There is definitely some problems with the FCCU. They have sold some vacuum gas oil (VGO) in the last few days," said one of the sources.
PetroChina undersea pipeline serving Nanpu field starts operations
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - A undersea pipeline serving PetroChina's Nanpu field in Bohai Bay has entered operations, parent China National Petroleum Corp said.The 3.65-kilometer pipeline has annual capacity of one mln tons of crude, delivering product from a shallow-water field to a processing plant, the parent company said.
Mexico calls for talks on Cemex seizure
CARACAS, VENEZUELA — Mexico urged Venezuela to negotiate with its cement producer Cemex on Tuesday after the Venezuelan government seized control of its cement plants, saying no deal could be reached on the terms of a nationalization ordered by President Hugo Chavez.Mexico's Foreign Ministry said its ambassador to Caracas delivered the message to Chavez's government after Venezuelan officials backed by National Guard troops took control of Cemex plants across the country late Monday.
There was no immediate reaction from Venezuela. Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said hours earlier to cheering workers at one Cemex plant: "We're taking over operations."
Saudi's economic cities under pressure to deliver
JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - An hour's drive north of Jeddah on the Red Sea coast, 8,000 workers toil under the relentless summer sun building what Saudi Arabia hopes will be the key to its social and economic future.If all goes to plan, the King Abdullah Economic City and three sister developments in Hail, Jizan and Medina will by at least 2020 be vibrant communities in a country with high unemployment and an over-reliance on oil.
A Wiki for the Planet: Clay Shirky on Open Source Environmentalism
Through illuminating examples like his calculation that Wikipedia was created in about the same amount of time that Americans spend watching commercials each weekend, Shirky argues that humans in the post-industrial age are just coming to terms with how to spend their "cognitive surplus."We talked with him about how that surplus might be directed at tackling global environmental degradation. Shirky focused on the need for new legal and social structures -- working through online media -- to enable collective action.
Driven: Shai Agassi's Audacious Plan to Put Electric Cars on the Road
At 38, Agassi is the youngest invitee. Just after the dotcom boom, SAP, the world's largest maker of enterprise software, paid $400 million for a small-business software company he started with his father; now he's SAP's head of products and widely presumed to be the next CEO. But he's not here this morning to talk about business software. Instead, his topic will be the world's addiction to fossil fuels. It's a recent passion and the organizers invited him to counterbalance the man speaking now, Daniel Yergin, the famed energy consultant and oil industry analyst. Yergin gives them his latest thinking: Energy independence is unattainable. Oil consumption will continue to rise. Iran will get richer. It's not exactly what this audience wants to hear.Now it's Agassi's turn. He starts off uncharacteristically nervous, stammering a bit. He's got something different, he says. A new approach. He believes it just might be possible to get the entire world off oil. For good. Point by point, gaining speed as he goes, he shares for the first time in public the ideas that will change his future—and possibly the world's.
Peak oil bigger problem than climate change
Peak oil is a much more immediate problem than climate change, delegates at a Finsia seminar heard yesterday.But the potential ramifications of climate change just make the problem worse, said Ian Dunlop, a former petroleum engineer who is now the deputy convenor for the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
This makes the combination of peak oil and climate change "the biggest issue the world has ever confronted, not just in a warm, fuzzy context but in what it means in a hard-edged business sense," he said.
There are some things most people today know about oil.● Global oil output is going to plummet
● Prices are going to rise forever
● The transition to alternative energy will be long and painful
● There will be more `oil wars' and industrial civilization may collapse
● Oil and gas will cause catastrophic climate change
The problem is that these ideas are wrong.
BP says testing begins on BTC pipeline
LONDON - British oil company BP PLC said that testing will begin Wednesday on the closed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which runs through conflict-stricken Georgia, ahead of a move to restart full operations as early as next week.BP spokeswoman Sheila Williams said that the "dynamic integrity testing" would involve "limited and intermediate flow" of oil through the BTC line, which usually provides some 1 million barrels per day of Caspian Sea crude to international markets.
Pirates seize Malaysian tanker off Somalia's coast
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Armed pirates seized a Malaysian palm oil tanker with 39 crew off the coast of Somalia — the fourth hijacking in a month, a global maritime watchdog said Wednesday.
Jerry Taylor says the federal government needs to remove restrictions on offshore drilling. V. John White says the focus ought to be on renewable energy, not oil.
Plenty of Pipeline Options. All Bad
Commentators have been quick to point out that Russia's defeat of Georgia has pretty much killed the chances that new oil and gas pipelines will be built to increase the security of supplies to Europe. It's clear that there is little to stop Russia from rolling its forces up to the existing pipeline or knocking it out of commission if it wanted to. The Washington Post's Steve Pearlstein even suggested that demonstrating the pipeline's vulnerability may have been one of the underlying motives for the Russian incursion.The United States has been promoting the idea of pipeline routes skirting Russia as a way to promote European energy security, but the chances of making that work have always been slim. The reason: The United States has been simultaneously trying to keep Iran, the world's other major holder of natural gas reserves, out of world markets and out of alternate pipeline networks. Without the Iran card, it's very difficult to win a pipeline game against Russia.
Court says EPA air pollution rule is illegal
WASHINGTON - A Bush administration rule barring states and local governments from requiring more air pollution monitoring is illegal, a federal appeals court ruled Tuesday.In a 2-1 decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit threw out a two-year-old rule that may have allowed some refineries, power plants and factories to exceed pollution limits because the Environmental Protection Agency "failed to fix inadequate monitoring requirements ... and prohibited states and local authorities from doing so."
Japan to Trial Frozen Gas Output in Pacific in 2012
(Bloomberg) -- Japan plans to start trial drilling in 2012 to extract frozen natural gas buried under the seabed and test if the methane hydrate is a viable next-generation fuel.
With oil prices skyrocketing, the search is on for efficient and sustainable biofuels. Research published this month in Agronomy Journal examines one biofuel crop contender: corn stover.
NYC mayor calls for wind turbines atop skyscrapers
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wind turbines would top New York City skyscrapers and bridges and dot the city's shorelines, while the mighty tides that drive the Hudson and East Rivers would also generate power under a new plan Mayor Michael Bloomberg presented on Tuesday."I think it would be a thing of beauty if, when Lady Liberty looks out on the horizon, she not only welcomes new immigrants, but lights their way with a torch powered by an ocean windfarm," Bloomberg said in a copy of a speech he will give in Las Vegas at the 2008 National Clean Energy Summit.
Australian "hot rocks" offer 26,000 yrs of power
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia scientists estimate that only one percent of the nation's untapped geothermal energy could produce 26,000 years worth of clean electricity.The Australian government announced on Wednesday a A$50 million (US$43 million) project to help develop technology to convert geothermal energy into baseload electricity.
Business leaders: Make renewable energy cheaper
Representatives from Google Inc. and General Electric Co. said Tuesday that widespread use of renewable energy in United States would be possible — if it were cheaper.Renewable energy options will remain "boutique" industries unless their costs are cut to make them competitive with coal and other widely used power sources, said Dan Reicher, director for climate change and energy initiatives at Google.org, the company's philanthropic arm.
David Suzuki: new science looks at big picture for global future
If we want to protect an endangered animal such as the woodland caribou, we have to do more than just study the animal in isolation. We must understand how it interacts with its total environment, including its habitat and other animals, as well as humans. We must then try to determine the best possible conditions for it to live in healthy numbers and study the threats that could undermine its persistence.It’s no different with humans, except that the problems we have created for ourselves––on a global scale––are even more complex.
Birds can't keep up with climate change: study
PARIS (AFP) - The habitats of wild bird species are shifting in response to global warming, but not fast enough to keep pace with rising temperatures, according to a study released Wednesday.Researchers in France also found that the delicate balance of wildlife in different ecosystems is changing up to eight times more quickly than previously suspected, with potentially severe consequences for some species.
New US president will help climate change fight: Australian PM
WELLINGTON (AFP) - The next US president will provide fresh impetus to the fight against global warming, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Tuesday.Both candidates for the November US election, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, had advised him that they would take action on climate change, Rudd told a conference in Auckland.
Warming climate threatens Alaska's vast forests
Records indicate that Alaska has already experienced the largest regional warming of any U.S. state -- an average 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) since the 1960s and about 8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.5 degrees Celsius) in the interior of the state during winter months."We've got mounds of evidence that an extremely powerful and unprecedented climate-driven change is underway," said Glenn Juday, a forest ecologist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks.
Some thoughts on Saudi Arabia & China
Based on EIA data, Saudi consumption increased from 2.0 mbpd in 2005 to 2.3 mbpd in 2007. China's net oil imports increased from 2.9 mbpd in 2005 to 3.7 mbpd in 2007. If we sum Saudi consumption and China's net oil imports, they went from 4.9 mbpd in 2005 to 6.0 mbpd in 2007. This is about a 10%/year rate of increase. It remains to be seen what higher prices will do to Chinese imports, but their production just barely increased in 2007, and they probably are going to be showing a production decline.
In any case, at their current rate the sum of what China would import and what Saudi Arabia consumes would go from 6 mbpd in 2007 to 12 mbpd in 2014.
A couple of days ago, DownSouth brought up the question of a discrepancy between EIA natural gas data for Texas and the corresponding data from the Texas Railroad Commission.
I contacted both the EIA and The Texas Railroad Commission. I also looked at the data myself. My conclusion is that the EIA data is right. The Texas Railroad Commission data, according to both the EIA and RCC, is at this point substantially delayed in processing. The part that is especially missing is production on the last six months for Barnett Shale. There can be production missing for a year or more, however.
According to the e-mail I got from EIA,
When I graph the monthly Texas Railroad Commission data as currently reported, this is what I get:
Texas natural gas production apart from Barnett Shale has been flat for years. If one only looks at the Barnett Shale data as reported, you get the impression that the Barnett Shale production peaked and has started to decline. The fact of the matter is that there is a serious processing problem at the Texas Railroad Commission with the Barnett Shale data, because of all of the new wells. The paperwork needs to be processed before this production can be entered into the system. There is at this time a huge paperwork backlog.
Once the new Barnett Shale well data is processed, it is likely that the growth pattern in Texas will be more like that shown in the EIA data (with a 15% or 16% year on year growth) than in the Texas RRC data. Nearly all the growth is likely to be from Barnett Shale.
It was good DownSouth brought up the question. Thanks DownSouth! It got us to look into the question, and better understand what the real situation is.
I certainly believe the part about a backlog at the RRC. We are facing incredible delays in getting new drilling permits.
In any case, I assume that the bottom line is that the EIA is just estimating the increase in shale gas production, while the RRC is trying to count the actual production, but as noted, the RRC is behind in the process. However, I would assume that the annual RRC data, which did show an increase in 2007, are fairly accurate. What the annual RRC data show is that we are producing at about two-thirds of our 1972 peak rate, but that it took four times as many wells to bring production up to two-thirds of our peak rate.
However, the shale plays are probably the best thing going for the US Oil & Gas industry, but as we have discussed, we have the "Red Queen" problem. We are replacing a smaller number of higher volume conventional wells with a much larger volume of generally lower production rate and faster declining unconventional wells. The limiting factors become equipment, personnel and infrastructure.
I think the EIA is probably doing a reasonable job of estimating the increase in production. The companies probably would not be reporting the higher production on the EIA-914 reports unless it was really there. When a person backs into what the Texas Railroad Commission thinks the ultimate production will really be, it comes out pretty much in line with what the EIA is now estimating. I expect that most of the increase will be in Barnett Shale. There is also a little "other shale gas" (Bossier shale and shale gas from the Toyah, NW field).
This is a link to the previous discussion.
When I started in the industry in 2002, my first job as a Production Accountant involved sending in the state production reports. It was a mess back then and from what I hear, it has gotten much worse. At that time, reports were printed, then mailed (hundreds of pages per month), then keyed in manually by the state. Then we usually got questions, which had to be resolved. A reallocation of production from comingled fields could cause many revisions several months later.(although gross would remain the same) After I moved to another position, the state came up with a plan to bring the system out of the stone age and accept electronic submissions. From what I hear, it was poorly executed. All in all, the data is probably pretty good quality after six months or so. I would not be surprised to see long delays in the reporting for new leases, but new wells drilled in unitized fields should see no delay. I'm not familiar with Barnett at all, but it seems likely that new wells are on new RRC leases. Reporting for unitized fields is much simpler....
Although it probably doesn't affect the data quality as much as it does on the RRC side, the turnover in most company production accounting departments is pretty high. Good employees move on to bigger and better things, leaving new hires and whoever is left to ensure data quality.
Hi Gail the Actuary,
Thanks for contacting the EIA and the Texas Railroad Commission. Your due dilligence is exemplary, and the response of these two agencies was desperately needed. However, I'm still not convinced.
I think we left it off on Monday's drumbeat with your comment:
I would like to use this comment, plus your follow-up today, as a hook on which to hang a couple more observations.
My comment the other day dealt with mass balance, how things aren't adding up between production, consumption and storage.
Today I'd like to talk about rig count vs. production, production cost vs. production, and natural gas price vs. production.
Facts: Texas rig count and production...
Year Avg. Rig Count Gas Prod Gas Prod during Jan. EIA Texas RRC (BCFPD) (BCFPD) 2000 285 na 15.78 2001 429 na 15.99 2002 372 na 15.71 2003 370 na 15.95 2004 459 na 16.56 2005 548 16.26 16.58 2006 664 17.21 17.41 2007 790 18.86 18.58 2008(1st 6 mo) 858 21.01 18.16References:
Rig count
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/BHI/391398890x0x223315/61FEC3DE-7...
EIA Production
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/eia914/gros...
Texas Railroad Commission Production
http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/PDQ/home.do;jsessionid=CLGUte61dXzWjmk8kEbB7MT4CRMO48RDUC4VRg9QKk2Pe4ivmQbs!622569757
Observations: The EIA figures are asking us to believe that drilling has suddenly become much more efficient, that is that a slight uptick in rig activity is yielding huge increases in new gas production.
Also, if we take a look at this map of the distribution of rig activity across Texas...
http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/RigCounts/default2.aspx
we see only a handful of rigs running in the Bend Arch-Fort Worth Basin (Barnett Shale). Most Texas rigs are running in the Permian Basin, the Gulf Coast region, East Texas and South Texas. (You can drill down on the Baker Huges web site to get a closer view.) By looking at the map, maybe 10% of Texas rigs are currently drilling Barnett Shale, and certainly not more than 20%. This does not support what the lady at the Texas Railroad Commission said about "production has been growing so rapidly on Barnett Shale" being the cause of their work overload.
Facts: Production cost vs. production...
Using Chesapeake Energy as an example, direct from its own financial statements, look what is happening to costs:
Investment in Quarter Oper. Costs Property & Equipment (per MCF) (per MCF produced during qtr) Q2-2003 $2.27 $58.86 Q2-2004 2.60 63.54 Q2-2005 3.11 120.80 Q2-2006 3.90 116.52 Q2-2007 4.50 154.00 Q2-2008 4.73 142.71Observatons: If indeed drilling for natural gas was becoming more efficient, that is if more gas were being produced for each foot drilled, then one would expect the production costs to be dropping. So far they are not. (By the way I am just using Chesapeake as an example, but I just as easily could have used Devon or any other major natural gas producer. Their costs are all similar.)
Facts: Natural gas prices vs. production:
Production Avg. Monthly Month EIA Bulletin Gas Price (Lower 48) (Henry Hub) Jan 07 55.66 $6.55 Feb 07 55.45 7.98 Mar 07 56.70 7.10 Apr 07 56.82 7.59 May 07 57.06 7.63 Jun 07 57.68 7.36 Jul 07 57.48 6.21 Aug 07 57.91 6.23 Sep 07 58.17 6.08 Oct 07 58.32 6.80 Nov 07 59.69 7.14 Dec 07 60.38 7.14 Jan 08 60.31 7.98 Feb 08 61.25 8.55 Mar 08 61.91 9.44 Apr 08 61.62 10.13 May 08 61.82 11.21 Jun 08 12.69 Jul 08 11.06Observations: I don't have a clue what determines natural gas prices, whether it is perception (hype and manipulation) or fundamentals (supply and demand). But if it is the latter, then the huge run up in prices in the first half of this year doesn’t seem to be consistent with a simultaneous balooning in supplies.
Time will certainly tell. But in the meantime all the conflicting information certainly makes for a mental and intellectual challenge and, on my part at least, for a lot of fun.
I'm guessing that the numbers from 2007 (2007 790 18.86 18.58) were too high given the market conditions at that time. In other words, there were too many rigs in 2007, 790 when there probably should have been only 740. If you plug 740 in there in place of the 790, it makes a bit more sense.
Q2-2006 3.90
Q2-2007 4.50
Q2-2008 4.73
Technically, going from 4.50 to 4.73 is not a drop, but wouldn't you expect a number far greater than 4.73? It's only 5% higher at a time when costs all across the board were rising at rates much higher than that.
Yes, Iconoclast421, I agree, and I don't see a single one of the four observations I made that is ironclad, that couldn't be explained in a differnt way.
The increase in $/MCF could indeed be due more to an increase in $/foot-drilled than a drop in MCF/foot-drilled.
Likewise, one could argue the March to July run-up in gas prices had nothing to do with supply and demand, but instead was a bubble caused soley by speculation and manipulation. Many in fact do make this argument.
And if we take a look at rig activity, one could surmise that 400 rigs are needed just to maintain production flat. Anything over 400 rigs adds new production. So an increase from 500 rigs to 600 rigs doubles the number drilling for new production (600-400)/(500-400)=2 whereas in absolute numbers it is only a 20% increase. An increase from 500 to 800 quadruples the number drilling for new production: (800-400)/(500-400)=4, whereas in absolute numbers it is only a 60% increase. So a relatively small percentage uptick in overall rig activity could indeed represent a much larger percentage uptick in the number of rigs toiling at increasing gas production.
And I suppose natural gas demand really could have increased by 11% over the last 16 months. If the production figures are correct, that would have to be true, because as memmel pointed out, it hasn't gone into storage.
It's just that when one looks at the whole picture, it seems to me that the Texas Railroad Commission production figures do a lot better job of explaining all the interrelated and interdependendent phenomena than the EIA figures do.
Like I said, time will tell. But for me, the jury's still out.
It was the small rig increase versus the huge production increase that made me wonder about shut in gas. We will see the truth as the year plays out.
We do know that the number of MCF produced per foot drilled is falling from EIA data. But it is not real time data.
Canadian production is down. US increases might be being used to replace falling Canadian gas. Just brainstorming....
You make some good points. I don't think the situation is as problematic as you suggest, though.
I notice from Baker Hughes data (which you also quote), there was an increase of 195 in US drilling rigs in the last year. Of this, Texas received 94, or 48% of the additional rigs. There was also a big shift into horizontal drilling rigs, and I would bet that the shift occurred in Texas as well. Most of the drilling rigs are for gas, so it doesn't seem like we should be too surprised if there was a fairly big increase in gas production in Texas. Clearly someone is interested in drilling in Texas, whether or not it is in the Barnett Shale area.
Regarding the higher price of natural gas in early 2008, at least part of this was related to the higher price of oil.
I agree that costs per MCF are going up. The business is fairly oil intensive, and oil costs have been going up. Long term one would expect the price of natural gas to continue to increase, to keep parity with the price of oil (and perhaps increase even more, since the current price is low relative to oil on a BTU basis). I would imagine this is why companies keep drilling, even with the higher costs. Once the profitability is no longer there, or they cannot get a needed input, like drilling pipes, the increase will stop.
I don't think the supply - use is as out of balance as you indicate. US net imports are way down, so that total natural gas available was up only 4.7% comparing the first five months of 2008 with the first five months of 2007. Consumption increased a little less than that--4.0%. There is some seasonality and storage plays a role, so one wouldn't expect amounts to match up completely.
If someone is looking at supply going forward, they are likely to look at the recent 8.8% increase in US dry gas production. If this percentage increase continues going forward, we are likely to be somewhat oversupplied for our current uses. This assumes that we won't have another decrease in net imports in the future. This reasoning may be part of what is keeping natural gas prices lower now.
Gail the Acturary,
I don't know what the source for the data was for your table entitled "Comparison of Changes in Supply and Use of US Natural Gas".
However, it states that US Dry Gas Production for the first 5 months of 2008 is 8,496,022 (MMCF?). If you divide that by the 152 days in the first five months of 2008, you get an average daily production rate of 55.9 BCFPD (55,900 MMCFPD).
The EIA figures, however, peg average daily production for the Lower 48 for the first five months of 2008 at 61.4 BCFPD.
So here's yet another source that is in disagreement with the EIA figures, and in the same direction as the Texas Railroad Commission figures, to the tune of 5.5 BCFPD. That's not an insignificant difference.
My background is in science and engineering, so all these mushy and inconsistent figures just drive me crazy. As Jacques Barzun wrote in From Dawn to Decadence:
If you look at the EIA data, you will discover that there are several different versions of natural gas production, because natural gas tends to be used/lost as it goes through the system:
-Gross Withdrawals
-Marketed Production
-Dry Production
I notice you are quoting data relating to the 48 state total. This adds another variation, since most EIA data tables are for the US in total. An EIA exhibit that gives most of these is here.
Regarding consumption, there is
-Total Consumption
-Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers
If you are using two different data sources (such as EIA and RRC), and are trying to match actual production amounts, you need to be very careful to match like with like. Otherwise, you are likely to come to erroneous conclusions.
In my exhibit, I was only trying to show year to year percentage changes, so matching was not an issue. What I showed was dry production from here, which is a lower amount. When I originally put the exhibit together, I had an additional line for marketed production. The percentage change in that was 8.8%, which is the same as the percentage change in dry gas production, so I took the line off the exhibit.
I think you are fighting an uphill battle trying to match natural gas numbers between sources, without doing a lot of background work to make certain that the numbers you are using are comparable. It is very easy to make a mistake. At a minimum, you want to go back to the EIA tables and start working from them. Then you at least know what number you are actually working with.
Gail/DS,
I’ll throw in a couple of points to highlight some additional difficulties trying to reach your worthy goals. First, the TRRC is always behind a good bit in reporting every aspect of Tx production. No one’s fault…they don’t really have as many folks working there as you might guess. But, more importantly, trying to characterize the current state of shale gas development in Tx, as well as anywhere else, is a very moving target. On the question of efficiency: there has been, and continues, a very steep learning curve in completion technology. Production profiles and recovery estimates from wells drilled just 3 or 4 years would look very different than if they were done today. Back then a well might have 2 or 3 fracs pumped into it. Now 12 fracs per well is not uncommon. Not surprisingly, new frac protocols might deliver 5 times the initial rate. Also, as Gail mentioned, the shift to horizontal drilling will make for even greater changes. Just yesterday we were given the go ahead to ramp up our shale gas drilling rig count to 14 for 2009….about a 50% increase over original plans. On the other side of the ledger, these “efficiency” improvements have come with a much higher price tag. Actually diesel prices increase haven't been the big problem. It’s been steel. On 1 Jan we made a projection on casing cost increase by year end. We hit that number 2 months ago. I myself don’t see much of the internal economic data but it’s easy to guess that it’s very fluid. And fracs are essentially priced by the pounds of sand pumped down the hole. A lot more sand in 12 fracs then 3 fracs.
There is a cost/efficiency number out there for wells drilled to day which is quit a bit different than one drilled 3 or 4 years ago. And a well drilled 3 or 4 years from today will probably look a lot different than one drilled today. I wish you the best of luck in figuring out this elusive target.
Thanks! Your comment is very helpful.
I think we often forget about improvements in technology as a driver of production increases. When I visited BP's tight gas facility in Wamsutter, one thing I commented on was how much technology had changed in recent years. It would not be surprising if similar changes are taking place on Barnett Shale as well.
Regarding the higher price of steel, I expect there is at least a little tie back to the higher price of oil. When the price of oil rose, so did the price of coal. One of the big costs of coal is transporting it. Another is mining it. Both of these are quite oil-dependent. There was also a shortage of coal. If other fossil fuels had been available in greater quantity at lower price, this might not have been such an issue.
Gail,
Certainly energy cost are a factor in the steel price run up but I can't really tell to what extent. But from the position the steel makers have taken it strikes me that competition among buyers is the dominant driving force of the inflation. For quit a while now the steel makers won't even quote a price: if you order 400,000' of a particular casing size they tell you the run will be out in, let's say, 4 months. They won't give you a price for the order. They tell you the cost when the pipe is ready to ship. You can accept that price or pass. It doesn't matter to the mill...they have several buyers right behind waiting to pay the price. Over the last few months I've heard that much of the competition has come from overseas buyers willing to meet the local price plus the additional shipping cost. We're probable in the top 5 casing buyers in the US and are on a strict monthly casing allowance. I can't fault those companies for maximizing their profit. We do the same. But it does add to that complexity of determining the real economic value of a drilling program with the parameters changing so quickly combined with predicting the unpredictable (like NG prices in 2011). As I’ve mentioned before, it’s the rapid pay out of these resource plays which is driving activity. Even if the total recovery were twice the average, if payout took 3 or 4 years you wouldn’t see the drilling levels we have today. Net present value is THE controlling factor. It's the only way to mitigate rising cost and the future pricing risk factor.
I still haven’t been able to devote enough time to the resource play decline model but will keep pushing. Something DS said reminded me of an old analogy for such plays: it’s like seeing you gas gauge running low so you speed up so you can reach your destination before running out of gas. Foolish logic for sure. But imagine a different reaction: you stop on the shoulder of the road, with the engine running, so you can make your remaining fuel last longer. Your engines runs much longer but you make no progress. This silly example is exactly where I see the resource playing public companies are today. The more wells they drill to replace their rapid declining reserve base the more rapidly declining reserves they add to their portfolio. And thus they need to drill even more wells. There will come a point for every public company when they won’t be able to stick with this plan. Could be any one of several reasons: play runs out, NG too low for new drilling, too much competition from other companies splitting the pie, etc. I’m guessing this is one reason we’re seeing companies paying top dollar to tie up as much acreage as possible. Even if all the other factors support the expansion, only he with the gold (acreage) rules.
We are see some of the same things in the hard rock mining business, and it is not restricted to supplies like steel and tires, but services as well; drillers, rigs, lowboy transports etc.
Great work Gail! Thanks for this. An example of what we should do in a face of a data discrepancy like this.
Hi Gail,
I am late to the party, but thank you for calling and getting the official story. I think we should keep a close track on how the two databases match in the future.
I find it a bit disturbing that the EIA is claiming this 15% increase when no one actually knows how much gas has been produced. The EIA is working with surveys and models. If the RRC does not know the true production, then no one does. I need to read the EIA press release again, but it did not sound like they were claiming a "forecasted increase of 15%".
The Iranian Alternative to Georgia
From an energy security POV. the purported bumper sticker "Happiness is Multiple Pipelines" is a truism.
Look at map. What are the non-Russian alternatives to Georgia for the Central Asian oil exporters ?
Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey is one, but Armenia is solidly pro-Russian and Kurds blew up the pipeline in Turkey on August 6 (an often overlooked fact).
Trans-Caspian pipelines are possible, but expensive.
Kazakhstan is building an oil pipeline to China and talking about a gas pipeline. Good for both of them !
And then there is the unthinkable, Iran ! Borders Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan with existing rail connections to Uzbekstan & Kazakhstan.
And railroads can serve as higher cost, but more flexible pipelines (Russian exports to China are by rail, despite the change in gauge, broad in Russia, standard in China, that require a physical move of the wheels on the axles).
Iranian pipelines or rail can either transit Central Asian oil to the Persian Gulf or the Mediterranean via either Turkey or Iraq-Syria.
Unthinkable, of course.
Alan
Turkmenistan-Iran is a busy rail line today and Iran-Turkey is a lower volume rail line (Turkey is planning land bypass for a rail ferry). Plans for Iran-Iraq-Syria.
Work has started on a Azerbaijan-Iran rail link bypassing Armenia and a standard gauge rail line from China to Kazakhstan, with future extensions to Turkmenistan and Iran.
"Work has started on a Azerbaijan-Iran rail link bypassing Armenia..."
And Armenia has never been happy about this.
Armenia is getting a second gas line from Iran.
Armenia and Batumi, Adjari are the keys.
And Russia controls both.
The festering sore of Nagorno-Karabakh is a huge problem for Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.
IFAIC, US policy toward Iran and Russia has effectively destroyed any influence the US might have had in the whole pipeline process. The most commonsense/economical Caspian to global markets route has always been through Iran to the Gulf.
Alan,I assume you are being ironic when you dismiss the Iranian solution.
It is a pity that the USA(possibly backed,albeit reluctantly,by the EU)has taken such an inflexible and punishing approach for so many years to Iran.This has been very dangerous and unproductive in so many ways,apart from gas and oil.
Here's hoping for a more sensible attitude come November and no insane Neo Con adventures in the mean time.