DrumBeat: August 19, 2008
Posted by Leanan on August 19, 2008 - 8:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The markets are rejoicing as the “great oil bubble” loses air and rapidly heads back to its proper double-digit price. The rejoicing may be a bit premature as the underlying supply and demand fundamentals do not appear to support “proper” prices for oil.Between 2004 and 2007, global oil consumption grew by 3.9%, driven by emerging giants China and India (40% of the world’s population) and other rapidly growing emerging economies. While consumption has exploded, production has not kept pace. Non-OPEC production growth has slowed well below historical averages. And the only country with significant spare production capacity is Saudi Arabia. Unfortunately, Saudi spare capacity is not independently verified, and the vast majority of their current production is from the giant Ghawar oil field, a dowager now 57 years old which still produces nearly 5 million barrels a day.
Stagflation? Or just stagnation?
The inflation figures for July were ugly. But oil prices have fallen and the dollar has strengthened in August. Too bad a global slowdown is the reason.
Poland seeks LNG port as fast as possible
WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland's government supported on Tuesday the construction of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) port on the Baltic coast as a strategic investment in the country's drive for energy supplies diversification. Poland uses around 14 billion cubic metres of gas every year but produces only about one-third of the amount and almost half of its gas import come from Russia.
Petrobras to Build $11.1 Billion Refinery in Ceara
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, plans to build an $11.1 billion low-sulfur refinery in the country's northeastern Ceara state.The refinery will be able to process 300,000 barrels of oil a day, according to a release that Rio de Janeiro-based Petrobras distributed in Fortaleza, Brazil. Production is scheduled to start in 2014 with a processing capacity of 150,000 barrels a day. Full capacity should be reached in 2016.
Nigeria militants kill 3 in battle over oil turf
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria (Reuters) - At least three people were killed in a turf dispute between rival armed gangs in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger Delta, one resident and a security source said on Tuesday.The gun battle over control of stolen oil in Sama, a village near the main industrial city of Port Harcourt, prompted hundreds of residents to flee early Tuesday morning, said a female resident who asked not to be named.
Libya Sees OPEC Holding Oil Output Steady
OPEC is unlikely to change its oil output at a meeting next month and a decline in oil prices will probably be temporary, the top oil official for OPEC member Libya said on Tuesday.
Iraq to Sign $1.2B Oil Service Deal with China
Iraq will sign a $1.2 billion oil service contract with China to replace a production-sharing deal agreed under Saddam Hussein, an Iraqi newspaper quoted oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani as saying on Tuesday.
Western GOM Oil, Gas Lease Sale Opens Wednesday
Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne will officially open the Minerals Management Service’s Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas Lease Sale 207 for the Western Gulf of Mexico at 9 a.m. CDT, Wednesday, August 20, 2008 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Secretary Kempthorne will open and read the first bid.
Iraq Tops Alaska As US Relies More On OPEC
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. got more crude oil from Iraq than Alaska in June as imports from OPEC continued to top domestic production. A review of U.S. data shows that in 17 of 18 months dating to January 2007, crude-oil imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries exceeded U.S. production levels.The figures shine a spotlight on the main points of the long-overdue debate over energy policy in the world's biggest oil consumer.
Fuel shortage prompts U.S. to issue Comoros travel alert
As the Union of the Comoros continues to experience fuel shortages, the State Department has issued a travel alert for the African nation. The department is concerned that the shortages may lead to civil unrest and demonstrations with violence directed toward foreigners.
Steel loads switch from road to canal
A Leeds metal firm has started shifting steel by canal rather than truck in an effort to save fuel costs and become greener.
The supply crunch is delaying shipments, forcing utilities to scramble to keep coal-fired plants running. "We're having to work very hard to get our coal delivered," says Vince Stroud, head of regulated fuels for Duke Energy.If the shortage persists into next year as expected, utility inventories will likely fall so low they might have to scale back coal generation, replacing it with pricier natural gas, says Seth Schwartz, a principal at consulting firm Energy Ventures Analysis. Alternatively, he says, utilities will face another steep price increase — up to 70% — for coal, further pushing up power prices.
Boyce makes no apologies for the exports, saying utilities "are competing on a global basis to buy that coal, and they've never had to do that before."
China power firms' coal stocks still low
Coal supply is tight as the increase in coal production capacity has failed to catch up with the expansion in power generating capacity, as well as surging demand from other sectors including steel and metal industries. The compulsory closure of small and unsafe coal mines has also compounded supply problems.But a surprise hike in on-grid prices, unveiled on Tuesday and the second one in two months, could provide generators with more financial resources to stockpile the fuel they need and help China overcome the power crisis when demand falls in coming months.
On American sustainability - summary
Our American way of life is unsustainable; rather than attempting to perpetuate it, we must transition beyond it—quickly. Should we fail to do so, our society will collapse—in the not-too-distant future…
A Failure to Prepare for the What Should Have Been Expected
The U.S. auto industry has a long history of fighting safety, environmental and fuel efficiency measures. In recent years, they have consistently fought measures to improve vehicle fuel efficiency. They did not have the foresight to prepare for the time when oil would no longer be cheap. To their credit, Toyota and Honda came out with hybrids years ago and have worked hard on fuel efficiency technologies beyond conventional hybrids.An unbiased analysis of oil production data over the years should have made it obvious that there was a coming problem. Unfortunately most people believe their beliefs rather than believing data. I've been warning about a coming oil crisis for 15 years or longer. To make people aware of the problem, I wrote a book which was published in 2005. Below is an excerpt from the final chapter.
Samuel Clemens, a.k.a. Mark Twain said: ”History doesn't repeat itself; at best it sometimes rhymes”There is evidence for this, but when it does rhyme it is because it is a different stanza from the same song. If we are about to rhyme with past events, that would suggest that we will not collapse into a great smoldering heap in a few months or years but a slow decline over several generations to a civilization more akin to how we lived around the end of the 19th century.
Recent disparate events have made me reconsider some of my beliefs.
In July, the Department of Public Service released the draft Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan. Like the climbers, the Department checked yesterday's forecast. The plan describes the current priorities as affordability, environment and (for electricity), reliability. It contains 27 strategies with 68 specific recommendations. If yesterday's weather continues and everything in the plan goes right, we may be just fine.
Railroads are benefiting from the global commodities boom - and the fact that trains are more fuel-efficient than trucks.
Food waste buckets in the kitchen pricked town's conscience
With the town's reputation for gourmet eating, bi-monthly farmers' markets, an annual food festival and formerly featuring more Michelin stars than any town outside London, its people might have been expected to appreciate the value of food. Preparatory research had shown, however, that each household was throwing away 4.2kg (9lb) of food leftovers each week.Within a few months of starting house-to-house food waste collections to fuel the anaerobic digester, the amount wasted by each family had fallen to 3.6kg. Officials are convinced that the introduction of collections made clear to householders just how much of their weekly shopping was being wasted.
Oil up on expected drop in gas supply
Crude jumped after an estimate from Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., predicted a 3 million barrel decline in gasoline stocks for last week and an increase in refinery utilization of 0.4%.A rise in refinery production would drive up demand for raw crude oil.
A decline in gasoline stocks would indicate that refiners had cut production too much, according to Brian Hicks, fund manager at U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio, Texas.
"We've seen refineries pull back because refining hasn't been profitable," said Hicks.
Saudi oil subsidy at stake over Musharraf exit
SAUDI Arabia thrust itself into the Pervez Musharraf impeachment drama last night when it warned that a huge oil subsidy that provides life support for the moribund Pakistan economy was at risk unless he was given an "exit with dignity".As a deadline tonight approached for the Pakistani President to "quit or else", the House of Saud's powerful intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz, acting as a personal emissary of King Abdullah, injected himself into the impasse.
One source described it as "banging heads together and trying to get all sides to see sense before the point of no return is reached".
Asia Seen Digging Into Middle East
- The Asian energy invasion of the Middle East looked set to deepen on Tuesday, with China's state-owned oil company reportedly close to an oil-service deal in Iraq--the first of its kind since the American invasion--while construction firms from Japan and Korea also hoped to get a slice of two big export refinery projects in Saudi Arabia.China in particular has proven particularly eager to strike deals in the Middle East, at a time when it is looking to feed its booming domestic appetite for energy. Iraq could be its next destination, according to published reports, which said Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani as saying that he would fly to China at the end of August to discuss a $1.2 billion oil-service deal with China National Petroleum Co.
Government Says Still Paying Part of Fuel Bill - Jordan Times
AMMAN -The government says it has incurred around JD121 million to cover the difference between actual prices of fuel and the ones decided by a pricing panel since fuel prices were floated in February.The announcement was made amid criticism that the latest update of fuel prices at 5 per cent was "disappointing" due to the relatively huge drop in the prices of crude oil on the international market.
McCain, Obama Promise Plug-in Cars as Detroit Charts a Timetable
Car-tech experts evaluate the stances of Senators John McCain and Barack Obama on America's future electric vehicles, including funding for battery research, tax credits and loan guarantees for a struggling American auto industry.
Solar power has potential, says GM exec
A senior General Motors executive says Australia should invest in cleaner energy alternatives such as solar power as a way to reduce the nation's dependence on oil.GM vice president, R&D and planning Larry Burns says new sources of cleaner energy are the only solution moving forward, reducing the near dominance of petroleum-based energy in existing forms of transport.
Family rice operation goes solar in a big way
Family-owned Far West Rice has met the challenge of energy uncertainty by installing the largest solar facility at any rice plant in the country at its processing plant south of Chico.The bold decision to put up an impressive bank of more than 5,500 solar panels on a four-acre piece of land between the processing facility and nearby rice fields is expected to improve long-term energy security and actually reduce costs.
How to Make 4 Alternative Fuels at Home: Goodbye, Big Oil!
Ready to make your own gas alternative? These products can give you a start—but energy independence won’t come cheaply.
Wasted Energy: Debunking the Waste-to-Energy Scheme
Like any other vampire, “waste to energy” technology, e.g., burning garbage for electricity, needs a good, swift stake to the heart.Decades after garbage incinerators disappeared from U.S. cities, burning garbage with energy recovery made a dash for federal, state and city subsidies following the energy crisis in the l970s and ’80s. It had a brief flurry of activity but, by the time the ’90s hit, was on the decline. Only 30 of 300 proposed plants were ever built—the last ones in l995 as the result of some dubious political shenanigans in Syracuse, New York and Montgomery County, Maryland.
The scheme is more aptly described as “wasted energy,” as the energy produced through incineration at the plants is quite small compared to the amount of energy needed for extraction, processing and distribution, to replace the materials destroyed.
Bill Clinton: 10 Things the U.S. Government Should Do For Clean Power
The 42nd U.S. President, Bill Clinton, delivered a top 10 laundry list of actions that the U.S. government should take to help solve the energy crisis during a speech to kick off the National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas on Monday night. Along with the list, which advocated various incentives to accelerate the proliferation of clean technologies, Clinton suggested some more controversial plans: he raised the idea of a single state, like Nevada, or an area like Puerto Rico becoming energy independent — he said this could “rock the world.” And beyond his concrete policy advice, Clinton also confirmed previous reports that his foundation is looking into helping build solar thermal projects in India.
Kunstler: Russia's Return Bites the Neocons' Grand Energy Scheme in the Ass
You have to ask what were they smoking over at the Pentagon and the CIA when they thought they could control Russia's close neighbor.
The American suburb was the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world… Why? Because it has no future, because we’re not going to be able to run it…. We don’t have the resource base to run it.A lot of the delusions that are now rampant in the country all focus on the alternative energy scene. I want to be very clear about this, I am in favor of alternative energy. I think we’re going to do everything we possibly can. But the key to understanding alternative energy is this: First of all, we are going to be disappointed by what it can do for us, and second, it is not going to change the fact that we have to make other arrangements for all the important activities of daily life…
In Rural New York, Windmills Can Bring Whiff of Corruption
Lured by state subsidies and buoyed by high oil prices, the wind industry has arrived in force in upstate New York, promising to bring jobs, tax revenue and cutting-edge energy to the long-struggling region. But in town after town, some residents say, the companies have delivered something else: an epidemic of corruption and intimidation, as they rush to acquire enough land to make the wind farms a reality.“It really is renewable energy gone wrong,” said the Franklin County district attorney, Derek P. Champagne, who began a criminal inquiry into the Burke Town Board last spring and was quickly inundated with complaints from all over the state about the wind companies. Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo agreed this year to take over the investigation.
Inflation flares 1.2% in July, housing starts drop
WASHINGTON — Wholesale prices took another unexpectedly steep jump in July and shot up at the fastest year-on-year rate in 27 years, according to a government report Tuesday that is certain to fan fears about a surge in inflation....The July price pressures reflected in part the big surge in energy costs during the month that pushed crude oil prices to a record $147.27 per barrel and sent gasoline pump prices to an all-time high $4.11 per gallon on average nationwide.
Crude oil prices have fallen by more than $30 per barrel since then, raising hopes the surge in inflation will abate.
But the price spikes in a number of areas seen in July raised concerns that the prolonged surge in energy prices is beginning to show up more broadly throughout the economy.
Algeria Pipeline Fire Injures 14, Stops Gas Flow
(Bloomberg) -- A fire in a natural-gas pipeline in Algeria yesterday injured 14 people and stopped the flow of the fuel, state oil company Sonatrach said.The pipeline burst at 3:15 a.m. local time yesterday in a corroded section near Zemmoura in western Algeria, Sonatrach said in a statement published by state-run APS news service.
Venezuela to Call for OPEC Production Cut If Oil Keeps Falling
(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela, South America's biggest oil producer, will propose that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut oil output quotas if crude prices continue to fall, Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said.
Fuel Oil Refining Margin to Rise on Lower Supply, Lehman Says
(Bloomberg) -- The refining profit, or margin, to make heavy fuel oil will rise through 2010 as production falls amid refiners' investment to make more expensive gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said.New York Harbor fuel oil's so-called crack, or margin, to crude may narrow to minus $10 a barrel in 2009 from an estimate of minus $22 a barrel this year, Lehman analysts Michael Waldron, James Crandell and Edward Morse said in a report titled ``Bottoms Up'' dated Aug. 18. Fuel oil is mainly used for electricity generation and to power ships.
Russian-Canadian energy deals possibly at risk
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper allowed on Tuesday for the possibility of commercial gas deals with Russia being put at risk by Russia's military actions in neighboring Georgia.
India may raise diesel prices for industries
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The government may charge higher diesel prices for industrial users and allow Reliance Industries to sell gas oil from its export-focused refinery to local retailers struggling to meet soaring demand, senior officials said.Diesel sales have risen sharply despite the government's move to raise fuel prices by about 10 percent in early June.
China Lifts Electricity Rates For Coal-fired Utilities By 5%
China will lift electricity rates charged by coal-fired power utilities by about 5%, in an effort to help the state-run power producers offset rising fuel prices, the National Development and Reform Commission said late Tuesday.
Organic food sales feel the bite from sluggish economy
High gas and food prices appear to be nibbling away at the high growth rates long enjoyed by organic and natural food makers and sellers.
Hundreds Of Motorists Line Up For Gas At 35 Cents A Gallon
Over 400 motorists jumped at the chance to get gas at a price only seen in the 1970's, and David Knoche, owner of the Exxon, jumped at the chance to give it to them.“We found out by the Maryland Environmental Program that we had to replace the tanks in the ground, and the expenditure was just too high for us to invest in new tanks, so we decided to have a going out sale and to do that we went back to the 1970s and got the prices up and sold the gasoline as long as it lasted,” he explained.
Thieves loot cemeteries for metal
Ghouls have made a resurgence in cemeteries throughout the United States, prying plates and ornaments from headstones and selling them to scrap yards.A rise in metal prices is driving the thefts, detectives say. Prices for copper, brass and bronze — metals that are commonly found in cemetery remembrances — have in some cases quadrupled in price in the past four years.
Because the metals can be hammered out of shape, the thefts are virtually untraceable.
Looking For Energy, Google Goes To Hell
Google.org, the philanthropic arm of search giant Google, announced it would try to help spur companies to reach underground to produce clean electricity. It is investing a total of $10 million in a geothermal energy company called AltaRock Energy and a drilling company called Potter Drilling, and it is funding research and mapping efforts and a policy agenda.
More women 40 to 44 remaining childless
The number of women ages 40 to 44 who remain childless has doubled in a generation, the U.S. Census reported Monday.In June 2006, 20% of women in that age group remained childless. Thirty years ago it was 10%.
"A lot of women are having no children," Jane Lawler Dye, the author of the report, says. "Also, the women who are having children are having fewer children."
The Economist Debates Our World Energy Crisis
"We can solve our energy problems with existing technologies today, without the need for breakthrough innovations."Conservation or innovation? Practising what we know or pushing the boundaries of what we hope? Will the reduction of global energy consumption be enough to sustain current fossil-fuel reserves? Or should all efforts be directed towards discovering new technologies that broaden the world’s energy portfolio? Which option is the more important to support, in the near term, by providing additional resources and enacting strong public-policy initiatives? Given that both efforts are currently being explored in parallel, where should the centre of gravity lie?
Oil falls as storm threat eases
Oil prices briefly dropped below $112 a barrel Tuesday, extending the previous session's decline as Tropical Storm Fay avoided oil-producing infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for September delivery was down 54 cents at $112.33 after falling as low as $111.78 barrel earlier in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Russia's oil exports decline 5.2% to 897 mln bbls in 1H08
MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) - Russia's oil exports declined 5.2% year-on-year in January-June to 122.5 million metric tons (897 million barrels), the country's top statistics body said on Tuesday.
Peak oil: Mayberry, not Mad Max
Take one of the more pessimistic projections of the future, from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and assume that by 2030 the world will have only two-thirds as much energy per person. Little breakdowns can feed on each other, so crudely double that estimate. Say that, for some reason, solar power, wind turbines, nuclear plants, tidal power, hydroelectric dams, biofuels, and new technologies never take off. Say that Americans make only a third as much money, cut driving by two-thirds. Assume that extended families have to move in together to conserve resources and that we must cut our flying by 98 percent.Many would consider that a fairly clear picture of collapse. But we have been there before, and recently. Those are the statistics of the 1950s--not remembered as a big time for cannibalism [as peak oiler Dmitri Orlov predicts as a possibility -- RD]. The world in 1950 used 10 million barrels of oil a day instead of our 85 million, and only a third of that increase is due to population growth. The rest is just us-- and it is mostly us in the West--driving, flying, buying, consuming, and discarding more in a month than our grandparents did in a year. The popular image of the '50s as an age of conspicuous consumption, suburban sprawl, and TV dinners misses the point. Those things were newsworthy then because they were new and unusual.
Another question on which the ecological economists and the mainstream diverge is whether growth has a ceiling, or limit.The ecological school says yes: Resources are finite, so growth can’t continue for ever.
The mainstream says no: “Technological advance allows us to work with given resources (labor, capital, raw materials) more efficiently,” Law said. “As long as we have technological progress, we can have growth in real per capita incomes.”
So runs the debate, but if the era of cheap oil is really over, as Farley sees it, the balance might shift.
OPEC likely to cut oil production
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may decide to cut the cartel’s oil output quota as the price of crude risks falling under $100 a barrel, energy consultancy CGES said yesterday....“The CGES believes that OPEC member-countries, facing increased government spending and rising inflation, will not be happy to see prices fall far below $100 per barrel,” added the report.
China to get key oil reserve bases by year end
China will complete the construction of its first four strategic oil reserves by the end of this year, a senior government official said Monday."The progress has been smooth and all the four bases will be completed by the year end," Zhang Guobao, administrator of the National Energy Administration (NEA), said after a press conference in Beijing. "Their total capacity will amount to 16.4 million cu m."
China started to build its strategic oil reserves in 2004, in order to fend off the risk of oil shortages and reduce the impact of oil price fluctuations. The government plans to build strategic oil reserves in three phases over 15 years, involving an estimated investment of 100 billion yuan ($14.6 billion).
...The central government is now reportedly selecting locations for the second batch of strategic oil reserves.
China growth a clear oil price signal
Chinese economic growth can deliver a potentially massive boost to global energy demand with clear implications for long-term oil prices, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said overnight...."Japan consumes 14 barrels of oil a year per capita," noted Fisher, a former deputy U.S trade representative who helped negotiate China's entry into the World Trade Organization.
"If China used the same amount per capita as parsimonious Japan, Chinese consumption would total more than 18 billion barrels a year, an amount that dwarfs our country's 7.5 billion barrels," said Fisher,
Exxon Halts Gas Supply to Fertilizer Plant in Aceh, Bisnis Says
(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp. halted natural gas supply to a fertilizer plant run by PT Pupuk Iskandar Muda in Aceh province because of a broken pipeline, Bisnis Indonesia reported, citing company president Mashudianto.Supply of 60 million cubic feet a day has been stopped since the first week of August and is slated to resume on Aug. 25 at the latest, the report said. Exxon is repairing the offshore pipeline, it said.
Oil tank catches fire at Libya's Ras Lanuf
(Reuters) - A crude oil storage tank in the area of Libya's oil refining and petrochemical site Ras Lanuf caught fire during maintenance early on Tuesday, the country's top oil official said.The fire was still burning, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corporation, told Reuters. There were no injuries and exports of products have not been affected, he said.
With high oil prices, West Texas booms again
KERMIT, Texas - While most Americans are tightening their belts, scrapping vacation plans and getting rid of their SUVs, in oil-and-gas rich West Texas, folks are living large — again.Most homes sell quickly and command premium prices. Hotel rooms are in scant supply. Gas guzzlers are rolling off auto dealers' lots. Jobs are plentiful in the oil and gas fields and the businesses that serve them.
Petrobras May Shift Exploration Drills to Brazil, Valor Says
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, is considering using drills in the country's oil fields that were initially planned for use in the Gulf of Mexico, Valor Economico said, citing executive director for exploration and production, Guilherme Estrella.
Middle East Infrastructure Projects Boom as OPEC Oil Exports Target $1 Trillion for 2008
Oil export revenues earned by member countries of OPEC are set to reach a record total of over $1 trillion by the end of 2008 and continue on an upward trend into 2009, according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In the first seven months of 2008, OPEC members earned a record $642 billion for oil exports. Civil construction and power generation projects are growing at a record pace.
Fuel adding to all farm costs: SAFF
The South Australian Farmers Federation (SAFF) says high fuel prices are driving up the cost of nearly every aspect of farming, and could even affect interest rates.The Federation has given a submission today to a select committee on the impact of peak oil.
Federation president Peter White says while petrol has fallen in price recently, diesel has not, and diesel is the main fuel used in farming.
Peru suspends rights in jungle protest regions
LIMA, Peru - Peru's government declared a state of emergency Monday in remote jungle regions where Indian groups are blocking highways and oil and gas installations to protest a law that makes it easier to sell their lands.The 30-day decree published in the official gazette suspends rights to public gatherings and free transit in three northern provinces.
Cement grab by Socialist Venezuela
Venezuela has seized foreign owned cement plants on Tuesday, a show of strength as President Hugo Chavez moves forward with a plan to make South America's top oil exporter a socialist society.
The Secret Deal For Iraq’s Oil
Four months before the United States invaded Iraq, the Department of Defense was secretly working with Vice President Dick Cheney’s old company, Halliburton Corp., on a secret deal that would give the world’s second largest oil services company total control over Iraq’s oil fields, according to interviews with Halliburton’s most senior executives.
A Vision for Change: An American Energy Policy
There’s little difference between your "New Energy for America" and Senator McCain’s "Lexington Project," especially since you have now reversed direction on offshore drilling. Your proposed alliance with the Senate’s "Gang of 10" to allow increased drilling and to invest in renewables is not a visionary energy policy – it’s just more hot air. The truth about energy is that nothing proposed by you or your opponent will make one whit of a difference when we pull up to the gas pump, either now or in the future.
McCain, Obama Equally Gassy on Oil
We're changing our habits. We're driving less, and driving more fuel-efficient cars when we do. The market is working. High gas prices are altering behavior and nudging us toward more conservation-oriented transportation habits.So why are our politicians tripping over themselves to keep prices low?
Timelinks designs city of the future
Dubai-based environmental design company, Timelinks, will unveil a city of the future at the upcoming Cityscape Dubai....The city, called the Ziggurat project, will be in the shape of a futuristic pyramid which, according to Timelinks, could support an entire community of up to one million people by harnessing the power of nature.
“Ziggurat communities can be almost totally self-sufficient energy-wise. Apart from using steam power in the building we will also employ wind turbine technology to harness natural energy resources,” said Ridas Matonis, managing director Timelinks.
Kuwait approves more anti-inflation steps
Kuwait's government has approved a set of proposals from a committee tasked with developing a strategy to fight inflation, including a recommendation of more subsidies, reports said.
Chinese oil firm targets coal-to-liquids
A subsidiary of a Chinese state-owned oil giant has thrown its weight behind an ambitious, $3 billion coal-to-liquids (CTL) project planned for South Australia.
Israel: To curb fuel costs, Kibbutz Be'eri runs cars on liquefied petroleum
When Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz sent world oil prices shooting up two months ago with his comments on Iran, the members of Kibbutz Be'eri were much less worried than most Israelis.For the past three years, the kibbutz has been switching its cars to run on liquefied petroleum gas instead of gasoline or diesel, which is saving the community over NIS 100,000 a month in fuel bills.
Water expert slams biofuels at global conference
STOCKHOLM, Sweden - The winner of the Stockholm Water Prize on Monday slammed the growing use of biofuels and urged people to eat less meat - to help cut the amount of water used in food production.British professor John Anthony Allan said the effect of the growing use of biofuels "is too frightening to even begin to realize."
Coal's toxic legacy to the Arctic
Coal burning in western Europe and North America has been a prime source of heavy metal pollution in the Arctic.Scientists plotted levels of thallium, cadmium and lead in a Greenland ice core and linked them to other chemicals indicating coal as the main origin.
What a fine pickle for humanity. On one side is the very powerful argument of global warming and its potential effects on climate, and the call for steps to stop either the process, or plan for the necessary adjustments and, the major polluters arguing that technology will see us through. On the other side, forget Kyoto and Bali accords, the mega consumption economies of the northern hemisphere are pulling out all stops to find and extract more oil and gas, the raw materials that will keep adding greenhouse gases to the overburdened atmosphere.
Australian PM urges more US climate change action
WELLINGTON, New Zealand - Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd urged the United States on Tuesday to take more action on climate change and become more involved in the global debate on the issue.As the only developed nation not to sign the greenhouse gas-controlling Kyoto Protocol, America's stance on climate change has made it easier for major developing countries to avoid acting, Rudd told the Australia-New Zealand Climate Change and Business Conference in the northern city of Auckland.
Japan to label goods' carbon footprints: official
TOKYO (AFP) - Japan is planning to label consumer goods to show their carbon footprints in a bid to raise public awareness about global warming, an official said Tuesday.Under the plan, a select range of products from beverages to detergent will carry markings on the carbon footprint -- or how much gas responsible for global warming has been emitted through production and delivery.
Rainfall will be abundant in key parts of the Middle East in future, according to a new study of climate change in the region, contrary to earlier projections.
Sea levels could rise 4m this century: climate expert
The head of the climate change unit at the Australian National University and science adviser to the Federal Government , Professor Will Steffen, says he believes the scientific community is underestimating the speed at which the climate is changing.
Oil demand growth projected to continue in the MidEast, Latin America, and developing nations:
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Oil_and_Gas/10237972.html
I think that September & October will be very interesting regarding oil prices. We saw a price decline in August last year, followed by a 10% rebound in September (average monthly prices, which peaked at $134 in June this year). With China's consumption presumably increasing, with the winter approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, and with an aggregate net export decline presumably continuing, I would expect an increase in oil prices, but I think that we are seeing a horse race between declining demand and declining net oil exports.
The only time in the last seven years that NatGas
didn't hit a yearly low in September
was 2005.
That year it was August.
That horse race = long term recession! maybe this will help us transition more easily!
The call in the UK to build more power stations is appearing in the press almost daily now. The right decision would be to build no more and make do with less and less energy through improved efficiency. However as the phrase goes, this is called political suicide.
Marco.
Also, I cannot see how London would have the olympics in 2012 when the lights are out 4 hours a day.
According to the IEA: "...oil supply increased by 890 kb/d in July to 87.8 mb/d." (total liquids supply)
Oil supply was projected to grow through 2009.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
ASPO had predicted that oil production might peak in 2010. Some have extended forecasts of peak oil to 2015. A surge of petroleum monies has resulted in increased investment in oil projects in new and exisiting fields all over the world. There are numerous projects that might be developed if the money will be available, including the Alberta-Sask. oilsands containing one to two trillion barrels of bitumen in place. Currently bitumen recovery projects are very expensive, but were long life producing at a constant rate for decades.
The demand for oil is linked to the price of oil.
This is one of the things that really leaves me worried. The more we do about the supply problems and "drill, drill, drill" to extend the plateau, or delay the peak, the steeper that drop off is going to be.
But I guess that's the short-sightedness that led me here in the first place...
Can we make a huge public case for leaving the remaining deposits for our descendants? Didn't KSA say something to this effect recently? (I've been trying to think of viral marketing ideas for Peak Awareness and saving something for the children.)
Ew
The short answer is no.
We can currently support a population of 330+ million people in NA only because of fossil fuels. There is no way in the short term to replace our reliance on diesel, gasoline and kerosene.
Time is an incompressible limit - regardless of how much money or resources are applied, major changes are going to take time.
If we can manage a window of 30-50 years (or perhaps we need 100 years) we can electrify the rail system, move from trucks to rail, install streetcars, etc. And the power can come wind, solar, (my favorite) geothermal, or whatever.
It's not just a question of convincing people. The real engineering required is going to take time - lots of time.
I am not talking about BAU, I am talking about keeping farms and the essential transportation systems functional. SUV's are toast, and suburbs are probably toast.
Hopefully, we can maintain enough petroleum supply (oilsands, offshore, etc) to get to a sustainable future - IMHO, there aren't any other realistic solutions.
Definition of Engineering:
"Engineering is the art of creating what you require using resources that you can obtain."
We can currently support a population of 330+ million people .... The real engineering required is going to take time - lots of time.
Or the people in charge can opt to reduce the population.
Yes....
Or the population can opt to reduce the people in charge.
Either way, we've got some reducing to do :)
I would agree with "no." The oil that is left is very difficult for us to get out now. As oil availability drops, things that we take for granted now will become more and more difficult. There may not be roads, helicopters, or advanced drilling rigs. It will be much harder to build pipelines, especially for a very small quantity of oil. It will be difficult to keep refineries in operating condition.
I would argue that we aren't doing our descendants any favor by leaving them the remaining oil. It is likely that they won't be able to get it out and process it anyhow.
If it's never burned...it might leave the earth in better shape for them.
Gail, this repeated refrain makes no logical sense. Nobody has yet claimed any collapse will be permanent. They never have been and likely never will be. In particular, if a result of collapse or power down is the eventual mastery of solar power, then the humanity will have essentially harnessed unlimited power. (This carries with it the assumption that population is stabilized within a sustainable social framework.) New technologies will rise that will allow the extraction of those resources as surely as they always have.
There are some things there are no good replacements of oil for, no? Maybe you are too caught up in the numbers to keep sight of simple, practical issues on this point, or do you really believe that a collapse at this point will be final?
Cheers
CCPO apparently you have not been paying attention. Claiming the collapse will be temporary is just another form of denial. Energy is only a small part of the problem. Homo sapiens are in deep, deep overshoot. The population of the earth is at least three times the level that the biosphere can support long term, even if we had unlimited energy.
Right, then we all live fat dumb and happy forever. No, our topsoil is being eroded away at over 100 times the rate it is being replaced. Water tables are dropping dramatically, fisheries are disappearing, the rain forests and dry forests are disappearing, rivers are drying up, lakes are either drying up are turning into cesspools. But if we could only harvest the power of the sun all these problems would disappear. Give me a break!
There is only one cure for overshoot. And we all know what that is.
Ron Patterson
Ron Patterson
Ron, don't be patronizing. I am as big a doomer as exists on these pages. That said, show me any evidence whatsoever, based on Peak Oil issues, that civilization will never rise again or that science and technology will simply stop and never start up again. This view is untenable and unsupportable unless you are going to throw in runaway global warming. But even then, I could see a future that is undersea and/or underground. Yes, it's a long shot, but to say it is impossible from the vantage point of today is hyperbole, don't you think? (If not, then you are claiming a level of precognition that could make you famous and rich! ;) )
Gail is in a field dominated by numbers. We tend to see things colored by our areas of expertise, so my comments were not meant as criticism. It is a legitimate question. I suspect she may see too much in the numbers, and not enough simple human common sense being applied in the future.
Cheers
Well, unfortunately, I'm on the other side of this one. And it is an interesting question: Why bother trying to save the falling if there's nowhere to land? Not sure! I guess it's to save the environment for a "new native civilization".
I came to the conclusion a bit ago that with peak everything, peak minerals especially, there will be a time in a few hundred years where we can't rebuild anything; computers, cell phones, solar panels, windmills (except wooden windmills to grind grain or maybe move water), and the human race will be back to, essentially, the stone age... plus some metals we can remelt from the dumps? But even that will be pretty low quality as it will be remelted from product.
Undersea or underground? Those both take a lot of energy and, certainly for the undersea version, technology.
Ouch, did I write that out loud?
You may well be right, but it is far from a certainty. Perhaps the problem is the assumption of what technology is or might be. I'm not sure that cell phones are such a hot thing, for example, nor that losing them would be a loss. I can easily envision, assuming humanity doesn't burn of freeze itself mucking with the climate, a far more sylvan lifestyle coupled with a highly technical backbone underlying everything. In fact, I can imagine a world that to an alien species on first blush might appear backwards, nothing more than basic agrarian lifestyle, but that has simply learned to use technology in such an integrated, seemless manner that the technology is essentially hidden from the uneducated eye of the stranger.
How about new armor technologies? By doing nothing much more than layering and binding fibers a certain way, we can now stop bullets. Go back and tell that to Sir Gawain and see what he thinks of it! Why can't we slowly, eventually create everyday clothing that might have the same protective properties but be as, or nearly so, comfortable as daily wear today? This would be a quite simple and likely efficient way to reduce injuries from accidents and crime, no?
You can read my post further down thread for the broader strokes of my argument.
Cheers
I don't know about underground but I have a pretty good idea of what it costs to maintain a very few human lives underwater for short periods in very small habitats. I can assure you that the cost of maintaining an entire civilization in such conditions is way beyond unfounded science fiction.
Fernando Magyar, Hyberbaric Technician, Saturation HeO2 Diver, certified Sub Sea Oil 1978.
No doubt. Presently. But can you prove it impossible that some portion of humanity might survive that way in the future? (It was just a tossed out example, not intended to build an argument around, btw.)
Cheers
ccpo, I'm with Darwinian on this one. Many of us think high-tech civilization is a one-shot deal, and if you don't realize this, you haven't been paying attention.
In 1964, astronomer and science fiction writer Sir Fred Hoyle said:
I think he is right. Civilizations may arise again, but they will not achieve our level of technology. We only achieved it because of our one-time gift of fossil fuels. With those exhausted, it won't be possible to maintain or achieve our current level of complexity.
Look at the civilizations that rose and fell before ours. They achieved some remarkable things, but with only a solar budget to work with, their technology was limited. And when they collapsed, much of their knowledge - even extremely useful knowledge - was lost.
Realize which? That it absolutely is a one-shot deal, or that some think so? In either case, are you seriously claiming precognition? The future hundreds, even thousands, of years hence is known to you?
Impressive! Truly!
;)
See my comments further down thread.
Cheers
Can someone explain the down arrows? Are we children voting down opposing viewpoints?
Sheesh...
Cheers
Ron, I would tend to agree that technological civilisation is pretty much a one-shot deal.
For many although not all resources I have tended to disagree with Limits to Growth type analysis (exceptions being fossil fuels, rare earths, helium etc.).
However you need plenty of energy to overcome the problem of going to lower grade ores, so unless you have plenty of cheap energy then Limits to Growth type analysis does indeed apply - you simply can't utilise the more plentiful lower grade resources.
Although quite a lot of scavenging could take place on the remains of our civilisation, going through the waste dumps, it is pretty difficult to see how you could build up a new civilisation sufficiently to utilise the lower grade deposits without first having access to the high-grade deposits we have exhausted.
To take one area critical to early industrialisation, the UK, even the move from wood to coal which started in around 1200 due to scarcity of wood supplies would not be possible.
Soil depletion, the reduced amounts of phosphates we have left, the depletion of oceanic productivity and on and on seem to indicate that in any time scale of less than 50 million years if we do go down we ain't coming back.
Modern solar and wind, not to mention nuclear power, all rely on a very sophisticated and possibly fragile support system - even solar thermal needs all sorts of technological gubbins.
Here are a few of the resource constraints to the development of another technological civilisation which would be critical in varying degrees:
Coal
Whale oil
Oil
Natural gas
Guano
Phosphates
The by-products of these industries - for instance sulphur
High grade deposits of virtually all minerals
If islands of truly high tech do not survive, it seems improbable that they can be re-created.
Aren't we being a bit unfair dissing ccpo like this. He never claimed the transition would be painless, or even that it might not contain a dieoff. His argument was about an end state of affairs, not the transient trajectory the system will take getting there.
In fact I think most TOD readers tend to agree with his point of view. Otherwise why bother to try and get our fellow citizens to commit to strategies which will result in a smoother less painful transition.
Bingo! A clear-eyed response, EOS. I am a short-, medium- and long-term doomer. I am not a till-the-end-of-all-time doomer. In fact, being so implies a level of arrogance even I don't subscribe to, and I've no shortage of opinion or confidence.
I did not discuss how many people there would be, their standard of living, life expectancy, etc., so to say I "have not been paying attention" based on the scant info in my post and my posting history is simply not accurate.
One thing I do believe in is cycles. They are everywhere in life, in history, in systems... they dominate. This is what was so exciting about Chaos Theory twenty years ago: it changes your view of everything subtly because you realize there is a pattern to literally everything. That pattern is often knowable in the broadest terms, but almost impossible to predict in the short term.
One pattern that dominates all of nature is the cycle of birth, growth, decline and rebirth. What we don't know is what the nature of the far future cycles will be. The assumption that new uses of energy, new ways of harnessing it, new ways of applying it, etc., will simply never again occur is almost ludicrous. It goes against what we know to be the nature of the very universe itself. However, systems do end, species end and civilizations end. We may well have ended ourselves. In fact I think it likely, but ONLY if we cannot adjust to climate change. An energy shift alone is not going to end humanity, so the cycles will continue less a planet we simply canot live on. At some point in the future, new, likely greater, civilizations will rise. Greater may not mean we live more technologically than we do now on a day-to-day basis, but it may well mean we live **better** technologically than we do now. I look at passive solar home design as an excellent back to the future example.
On a different note, I am not the most polite person on these boards. That is with intention. However, I do try not to be harsh simply because someone disagrees with me. I will be hard on people for their way of doing things. (The one exception is Global Warming which I have discussed previously.) For example, I used to give DaveMart a hard time on the nuclear issue, but it wasn't because he was such a staunch supporter, it was because every thread got twisted into a discussion of nuclear while he ignored some obvious problems. Dave stopped doing that and we have no problems. In the end, we learned from each other. But to tell someone they haven't been paying attention because they just disagree with you, with reasonable support of their opinions, is unjustifiably rude.
But it's not a big deal. I enjoy both Ron and Gail's work.
;)
Cheers