DrumBeat: October 11, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 10/11/06 at 9:29 AM EDT]

One More Reason Prices Are Falling

Floating oil factories allow tankers to load at sea, avoiding political instability and saving billions

Nigeria is a rough place to do business. In the past year, rebels seeking a greater share of the country's energy wealth have bombed Royal Dutch Shell's pipelines and kidnapped its workers. The oil giant was forced to shut down half of its production there, most of which is situated in the Niger River Delta, a steamy swampland populated by farmers, fishermen, and angry militias.

Far out at sea, the situation is much safer. Since late last year, Shell has been extracting oil from its massive Bonga field, a $3.6 billion project located in 3,200 feet of water. The field now yields more than 200,000 barrels a day, thanks to a high-tech facility called a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel, or FPSO. It looks like an oil tanker and can hold up to 2 million barrels in its belly, but its primary purpose is to load up tankers out at sea, rather than piping the crude to an onshore terminal. The oil streaming in from Bonga and other deepwater sites like it helps explain why oil prices have settled down to under $60 from a July high of $78.

[Update by Leanan on 10/11/06 at 9:23 AM EDT]

Eco-Kremlin: Russia targets energy giants

MOSCOW - Western firms developing Russia's rich oil and gas fields are facing sweeping allegations of environmental abuses. But critics say the charges are a thinly veiled Kremlin power play to renege on 1990s-era contracts now seen as unfavorable for Russia.


Oil up after OPEC confirms output cut

Oil prices rose Wednesday after the president of OPEC confirmed that the organization will cut global crude production by 1 million barrels a day to prop up the market.

"The cut itself is agreed," OPEC President Edmund Daukoru told reporters in Abuja, Nigeria, adding the cut would begin at the end of the month. He said members were "nearing consensus" on how to share out the cuts.


EIA: OPEC September Oil Output down 80,000 B/D At 27.64 Million B/D

Crude oil output from the 10 members in OPEC's quota system averaged 27.64 million barrels a day in September, 1.3% below the agreed output ceiling and 80,000 barrels a day lower from a month earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.


Shell says 60 oil workers kidnapped in Niger Delta, flow station shut

Armed youths in Nigeria's restive Niger Delta seized a flow station run by oil company Shell and took 60 workers hostage, causing a production loss of some 12,000 barrels of oil per day, the company has said.


Canada's Harper says new clean air act coming


Indonesia cancels ExxonMobil's Natuna gas contract

Indonesia has terminated a contract with ExxonMobil Corp to drill a major offshore gas field in the Natuna Sea off the west coast of Borneo, in a move that may alarm foreign investors.

ExxonMobil however said that the contract stood firm as it was extendable and they were still working to develop the field.


American Secret? India Becomes The Gasoline Gusher


Saudi to Halt Gasoline Imports with Low-Octane Fuel

Saudi Arabia, where high crude prices have caused oil demand to soar, may be able to temporarily stop importing over 500,000 barrels a month of gasoline when it starts selling a lower-octane grade at retail pumps from January.


Germany’s E.ON Ruhrgas Welcomes Gazprom’s Decision on Shtokman Development

German utility giant E.ON Ruhrgas AG said on Wednesday, Oct. 11, that it welcomes Gazprom’s decision to develop the vast Shtokman gas deposit on its own and to export the greater part of gas to Europe via the Nord Stream gas pipeline.


Bodman: U.S. will accept Venezuelan oil charity

U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman on Tuesday said he would not turn down charitable donations of cheap heating fuels this winter, even if it comes from a Venezuelan leader who called President Bush "the devil."


Beyond Fossil Fuels

Thirty years of research at the private and government level, here and abroad, have produced a range of new technologies that can help turn abundant energy sources — wind, biomass, solar, even water itself — into alternative fuels. These fuels, in turn, can help keep our cars running and our power plants humming, while reducing both our reliance on unstable Middle Eastern oil producers and our contributions to dangerous climate change.


Department of Energy Funds cyanobacteria sequencing project

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has devoted $1.6 million to sequencing the DNA of six photosynthetic bacteria that Washington University in St. Louis biologists will examine for their potential as one of the next great sources of biofuel that can run our cars and warm our houses.


Paint the train green

A traveller going to Paris and back on Eurostar generates 10 times less carbon dioxide than someone making the same journey by air.


Locked-in fuel oil price no bargain now

When James Schwartz signed a contract last summer locking in home heating oil for the winter at $2.79 a gallon, it seemed like a safe bet. Crude oil prices had surged and gasoline was above three bucks a gallon. Could $3 fuel oil be far behind?

But crude has dropped nearly 25 percent from its mid-July peak of $78.40 a barrel. And other heating-oil customers in the Baltimore area are paying as little $2.12 a gallon to heat their homes — 24 percent less than Schwartz is paying.


As Oil Ebbs: The nation still needs a sane energy policy.


Rate hike will fuel PGW debate

The Philadelphia Gas Works is a slow-motion crisis that everyone sees coming - and no one seems capable of stopping.


Suspicion Surrounds Retreat In Gas Prices, Poll Finds

Three out of 10 Americans think the recent fall in gasoline prices is a result of domestic political factors, including White House and Republican Party efforts to influence the November elections. That's nearly as many as the 35 percent who attribute the recent price decline to market forces or supply and demand, according to the poll of 1,204 adults conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

The survey also showed that suspicions about the steep drop in gasoline prices over the past two months aren't limited to the nation's liberal strongholds. Sixteen percent of people who identified themselves as conservative Republicans, 26 percent of white evangelical Protestants and 29 percent of Southern residents think the plunge in prices is linked to the coming election or other political reasons.


Bad weather shuts down Alaska pipeline

Oil production at Prudhoe Bay was cut to 10 percent of normal output after a power outage, and more weather related problems forced the trans-Alaska oil pipeline to temporarily go offline.

The pipeline was down for about 10 hours Tuesday after flooding in Valdez likely knocked out fiber-optic communications at five valves on the pipeline.


The Flying Elephant

Over just the last three years we've seen some staggering upward jerks in the fuel price. And it is common sense to believe that a finite resource, a limited resource that is becoming expensive, will become even more expensive in the future. In this scenario, an airline won't be able to feed elephantine aircraft massive quantities of fuel. Airlines will need to be smaller, and more flexible. Aircraft will have to be fuel efficient above all, and that implies excellent power-to-weight-to-cost ratios.


Price soars for scarce pellets

Dingmans Ferry, Pa. — Roxane Sanford just wants to turn the heat on in her home. But that's not as easy as it sounds for this pellet stove owner.

Sanford has spent the past two months putting her name on waiting lists for pellet fuel — some lists are 500 names long — and calling chain stores from New Jersey to Scranton, Pa., only to be told they have no idea when the next shipment will arrive and to "call back tomorrow."


The trouble with ethanol

I went to see Tad Patzek give a seminar on the U.C. Berkeley campus yesterday titled "Agriculture, Biofuels and the Earth," because I wanted a firsthand look at one of the more controversial figures in the emerging world of biofuels. The Berkeley chemical engineering professor is the co-author (along with retired Cornell professor David Pimentel) of two studies that cast doubt on the energy efficiency of corn-based ethanol and other biofuels. The studies have been widely cited both by anti-biofuel right-wingers who want to stop subsidies of all forms of alternative energy, and by left-wing critics who believe that a rush to biofuels will result in the destruction of tropical rain forests, the proliferation of genetically modified monocultural crops across the planet, and assorted other ecological disasters. If you've got a problem with biofuels, Patzek and Pimentel have your back.
T. Boone Pickens was on CNBC this morning, but I only caught the very end. Did he say anything interesting? Can someone offer summary of what he said?
Don't quote me exactly as this is from memory....

I caught the interview also about 1/4 the way through....

Highlights from what I can remember.....

The hosts asked him if he is still a "peaker", and he said "yes"...

Asked him about his prediction on oil prices...

He said that we will see $70 before we see $50 again.

Still predicts $100 oil, but not for 2006.

The hosts kinda "ribbed" him about his last prediction; which was "we will see $80 before we see $60.  He pointed out that we within dimes of the high of $80, but the hosts pointed out that close is not $80.

Then he talked about his investment in alternative energy.  

He is big into Canadian oil sands, not hip to ethanol, even though he has some investment in it (only to hedge his bets).

I didn't catch to whole conversation as I was brushing my teeth, but he corrected the hosts in saying that what some people consider alternative energy is still hydrocarbons and must be pulled out of a hole in the ground.  They are subject to the same limitations as oil.  I think this was in reference to using Natural Gas as a transportation fuel.

That is all I can remember.

Thanks!
You might also want to check out the Pickens interview on Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

I didn't see the CNBC segment but he was on Bloomberg.  Click here:  http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/11/91712/322#109  for my post on him.
You guys have got me on a roll. Will somebody explain to me what exactly T.Boone is teaching the world about oil? I've been reading him as long as I know about what he has said (or has to say, if you prefer) about oil. I can't understand what he's saying. Obviously.

You would figure that he would know about peak-oil at least as well as I do. Hell, Leanan knows ten times as much about oil as ole T.Boone.

How much did T.Boone lose?

Does anybody know?

Were they suckers?

Who is the con. Who is conned?

Will he pull it off again?

Everybody loves the expression - "...got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you(or ya)." I have never understood this. I understand the story. I understand the concept. But I must be missing something. Because I don't really understand why the story is set in New York.

There is a much better story, that gets very little play. It demonstrates the same concept. Only better. And it is also true. A guy sold the Eiffel tower for scrap metal - twice. I'm pretty sure he cashed the second check.

Shawnott, the thing you are doing here with documentation is great. Keep it up. To whoever threw that Bloomberg link out down below or wherever it is with the warning that it'll last about two days, thanks for saving other peoples' man hours. Keep it up. There will be a big raise for you. In fact we are going to make this retroactive until the time you started with us. I have a theory...naw we'll save that for another time.

And, as I keep pointing out, the bridge isn't even in Brooklyn, its just called the Brooklyn Bridge. It is over the east River between Manhattan and Brooklyn.
Detroit and Dearborn: The Future of America as a whole?

I caught this story about Detrit on NPR this morning. It makes me wonder if this is what the rest of the country will be experiencing soon. Oh, and guess what the only industry is that's booming? Foreclosures, or course.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6212418

It seems to me that this is a snap-shot of the on-going "catabolic collapse" that has been ably discussed by John Michael Greer in his weekly "Archdruid reports."
It seems to me that many towns, and regions, have suffered hard times ... in the last 100 centuries.  Many of them are, unfortunately, natural outcomes of misplaced plans and ambitions.

I mean, I don't think any of us here hope or wish the 10 MPG SUV thing to go on forever.  So if it doesn't, and a transition to market-friendly alternatives was not made, something has to give.

But to name this, after countless similar occurances through history, as a "snap-shot" of collapse ... well, see also:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

It is a snap-shot of decline - a symptom that shows up during typical recessions as you note ode, but also possibly a model of decline in general for many metro areas during T1 of this Greatest Depression.

I like these kinds of articles because they show in a tangible way how everyone can be affected in our economic food chain.  Most people I know in my 3D World shrug off Peak Oil because they do not understand how it might affect them - other than the pump prices.  

Here you can see how the cost of energy creeps into every corner of the economy (pizza delivery costs... yard care, etc).

Maybe this is similar to climate discussions, where we can't use the 10 year temperature trend in a single town, but have to step back to a wider focus.

If this is a localized result of that very adjustment which is so often denied, that may not be a bad thing.

On the other hand, if someone can show that there are no winners (nationally or even internationally) to balance the losers, then maybe we are in a broad downward movement.

Odo: It is quite clear. USA median income (inflation-adjusted) is in permanent decline, for a number of reasons. On the other hand, the number of millionaires and megamillionaires (>100 mill) is increasing at a brisk pace. Less "winners" than in 1976, but if you "win" in 2006 you end up with a lot more money.
Just as the Detroit decline is something real, that we try to put in perspective, so is the median income data.

I do think it is very bad, and is an indication that we should change our national policies ... but isn't that more a story of globalization and misapplied tax cuts?

Odo: IMHO, it is all about globalization.
Globalization.
The final frontier.
These are the voyages of the venture ship: Enterprise.
To boldly go where no business has gone before.
To seek our new sources of profit.
To suck out the last of what is worth sucking on.
And then ... to move on.

(Resistance is futile.)

"Captain...the dilithium crystals have shattered...I don't think I can keep 'er together much longer...."
"I can't do it, Captain!  I don't have the power!  I cannae change the laws o' physics!"
"Scottie...do you have some bubble gum...be creative...c'mon man...do something...anything..."
Leanan...we be "old school" Trekkies.
Yup, I guess so.

I used to think Star Trek technology would save us.  Heck, that's why I became an engineer.  I wanted to be part of the solution.  Instead, I ended up part of the problem.  :-/

"I can't penatate it sir I think they put up a panty shield" Comedy central -1980's
Scottie. Look at me. I'm the Captain. I'm the Alpha Kirk. I know you can push her more. Squeeze the last drop out for ME Scottie. I'm only asking you to do what's best for everyone on board. If you pull it off, there will be a bonus in your paycheck at the end of the accounting quarter.

Kidding aside, after I wrote that, it dawned on me that the Cornucopians in our society are like Captain Kirk.

Sure the dylithium crystals are almost drained dry. But Scottie the ingenius engineer will pull another rabbit out of the hat and keep us going for at least one more episode.

Sure the oil wells are being drained dry, but our real world engineers will pull another Moore's Law miracle and double production figures yet again. They'll go the extra mile undersea. They'll trudge the extra step out into the tundra.

Even if the Cornucopians are right, you have to ask if their plan is wise? IS that what we should be doing? Squeezing the last drop out of her (Planet Earth) BEFORE we figure out how to get along without the dylithium energy?

Now all those reading TOD outside the US understand our culture.  We were raised on Star Trek...no matter how insane the odds are, Scottie (technology) will save us in the end.  This is how TV has twisted our sense of reality and entitlement.  

What we have yet to figure out is that Star Trek had a good run, but in the end, after all it's "generations", it got cancelled.  

Actually it was never Scottie who got credit for saving the floating life vessel week every week but rather the sheer optimism and will power of the uber-human, Captain James T. Quirk.
Kidding aside, after I wrote that, it dawned on me that the Cornucopians in our society are like Captain Kirk.

Yup.  They don't believe in the no-win scenario.


Two words: Kobayashi Maru
Ha...now I was never that big of a Trekkie to know all the books and episodes by heart.  Care to give a synopsis of that story?
Never mind...found it.

Book Description

A freak shuttlecraft accident -- and suddenly Captain Kirk and most of his senior officers find themselves adrift in space, with no hope of rescue, no hope of repairing their craft, or restoring communications -- with nothing, in short but time on their hands.

Time enough for each to tell the story of the Kobayashi Maru -- the Starfleet Academy test given to command cadets. Nominally a tactical exercise, the Kobayashi Maru is in fact a test of character revealed in the choices each man makes -- and does not make.

Discover now how Starfleet Cadets Kirk, Chekov, Scotty, and Sulu each faced the Kobayashi Maru...and became in turn Starfleet officers.

Download Description
As portrayed in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, all Starfleet Command cadets must take the "no-win" Kobayashi Maru rescue simulation. Trapped aboard a doomed shuttlecraft, the Enterprise officers reminisce about their individual performances on the Kobayashi Maru test . . . reminiscences that spark a last, desperate attempt at survival.

No, that's not really the point.  The Kobayashi Maru is a starfleet test in which you are presented with an unwinnable situation.  However, there was one - and only one - cadet who actually beat the test.  That would be - James T. Kirk.  Does anyone recall how he did it?
He hacked into the computer and reprogrammed the test.

Alan

And wasn't it in "Wrath of Kahn" (the movie) that he reveals that?

Think 3-dimensionally Scottie!
Give me all the impulse shopping power you got.
Aye aye Captain.

What was that, 20 years ago?  When hacking was still sort of new and cool.

Today, any cadet who did what Kirk did, tampering with school computers, would be expelled.

He cheated.  

The Kobayashi Maru was meant to teach cadets that sometimes, no matter what you do, you lose.  Kirk cheated...and hence never learned that lesson.

BTW, it was actually the TOS movies (ST II, I think) that introduced the no-win scenario and the Kobayashi Maru.  

When it comes to Peak Oil and Global Warming I will use the Kobayashi Maru solution as well.

I am at this very moment re-programming the laws of thermodynamics and geo-global climatology. Wish me luck.

Get back here Scottie, you haven't finished the last line of code! The gin bottle is yours AFTER you finish.

And notice that even when Kirk loses his friend, he still gets back what he lost, while cheating the rules yet again.

Star Trek is more about avoiding reality than anything else - and yes, what a metaphor for America.

It's not about globalization, it's about power. The winners in this economy have changed the rules of the game and done it by the application of power.
So the winners get more and more, the losers less and less. Median income stagnant or down. If the winners played the game smart they would create prosperity for all.
But it's not about prosperity, it's not about creating wealth. It's about being a winner and giving the losers a hot poker in the ass.
I was planning to evetually chime in with my own definition of modern "wealth". A number of TODders here have already touched on some of the basic concepts.

In years past, "wealth" was measured by the number of acres of fertile land that a noble owned and the number of sheep, cattle and servants he had working that land for him and directing the profitable "fat of the land" to him in terms of goods, services and taxes.

During the industrial revolution, the definition changed somewhat from defining territory in terms of land and serfs to maket size and market share. This was more of a Demand-side oriented view of the world. You became "wealthier" as more of the world demanded your goods or services, as your sphere of influence as a seller enlarged.

Modern wealth (IMHO) has two intertwined aspects:
Neuro-hegemony over:

  1. Sources of money inflow, and
  2. Sources of quality service provision.

First, what do I mean by "neuro-hegemony"?
In days of old (yes, when knights were bold), a nobleman exerted his hegemony mostly by physical force, by running a tight police state. That was a costly and resource intensive way of controlling an empire. Besides as you got older and weaker, some younger punk warlord can come in, beat you up and take over.

The more sophisticated noblepersons soon came to realize that mental manipulation of the masses was a cheaper and more effective method of control (as long as the reigns of neural control did not slip off) and it could last well into old age.

The church was a first vehicle for gaining control. Give onto Ceasar ... yeah, right. Who do you think actually came up with that line, Jesus or Ceasar?

But as control by the church began to slip, nobility realized there was a much subtler way to maintain control: Education. Get hold of the kids while they were young and program their brains with ideas that will fool them into serving you. Fool their parents into thinking that "education" is good for everybody. Fool them into fighting over each other so they can get into the "best" of schools and thereby become the "best" of people, the ivory towers of their society. Yeah right. (Oops sorry. Not supposed to say that. It's heresy you know.)

As a nobleperson, you want to fool as many people as possible into serving you. That means you have to "educate" a greater number of them to your way of how they should think. They should worship Adam Smith and the Invisible Hand. They should believe that working long hours and even weekends in the office, will get them to the promised land. Death by over work is an honorable way to go, and it serves as a good example for the other sheeple.

That is what "globilization" is really about: finding larger masses of population to service the masters. Of course, when you finish encircling the globe, that indeed is the final frontier. The race is on to see who finishes first.

There are two basic ways that the masses can serve you, the nobleperson: (1) sending you more money in the form of taxes or in the form of revenue from having bought some trinkets you "sell" to them; and (2) providing you with immediate and quality service the instant you want it. When you go to a restaurant, the waiter is there at the mere whip of a finger. More champagne sir? What can I get you? When you go to a hospital, you get the executive suite and the best of doctors fighting over each other to see who can service you first. That is wealth. That is power. That is neural hegemony.