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DrumBeat: October 13, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 13, 2006 - 9:17am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil platform off Angolan waters testifies to Africa's growing importance
"Within a few years, analysts reckon Nigeria (Africa's biggest oil producer) will be playing catch-up with Angola" in deep-water production, Petroleum Economist magazine says in its latest edition.Angola's oil output is projected to surpass 2 million barrels a day next year and increase by 90 percent from 2005 levels by 2010, according to conservative estimates of the International Monetary Fund. It says that would double Angolan government revenues, even allowing for a price drop. Chevron produces just over 500,000 barrels a day and plans to double production in the next five years.
Statoil, Shell shut in 13% of Norway output for 1-2 weeks
OSLO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The operators of Norway's Snorre A and Draugen oilfields said on Friday they will halt 280,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day output for a week or two to make safety improvements to lifeboats....The shutdowns, ordered by Norway's Petroleum Safety Authority, will equal almost 13 percent of the country's oil production, which amounted to 2.25 million barrels per day in September according to figures released last week.
China's Tarim oil fields may see 50% output increase in 2006
PetroChina Co said gas and oil output from the Tarim Basin fields in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region may jump 50 pct this year as the company intensifies its search for new supplies, state media reported.
Oil prices curtail demand in developed countries
High prices are for the first time in two decades prompting oil demand in developed countries to decrease, the International Energy Agency says.
Attacks on energy facilities worldwide to hinder the delivery of gas and oil have been rising sharply, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence agency said on Thursday."In the past few years we have registered a significant increase in terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure and we must state that there have been qualitative changes," the head of Germany's Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Ernst Uhrlau, told a conference on energy security organised by the BND.
Costly oil makes Nova Scotia ports more attractive
MATTHEW SIMMONS is friendly enough but his message isn’t always welcomed, especially by the energy sector.But from a Nova Scotia point of view, Simmons’s message is a positive because it has the potential of drawing more attention to Nova Scotia as a gateway for goods from Asia to reach North America.
Colombian Indians protest oil drilling
Hundreds of Bari Indians, most clad in loincloths and carrying bows and arrows, came down from the hills in their first march ever Thursday to demand that the state-owned oil company stop drilling on sacred land abutting their reservation.
US motorists gear up to use greener diesel fuel
The drive to convert American motorists to diesel will take a big step forward during the next few days as a more environmentally friendly version of the fuel goes on sale.The clean-burning ultra-low sulphur diesel emits only 15 parts per million of sulphur, compared with 500 parts for existing diesel.
Study: Climate change inaction will cost trillions
Failing to fight global warming now will cost trillions of dollars by the end of the century even without counting biodiversity loss or unpredictable events like the Gulf Stream shutting down, a study said on Friday.But acting now will avoid some of the massive damage and cost relatively little, said the study commissioned by Friends of the Earth from the Global Development and Environment Institute of Tufts University in the United States.
Megan Quinn: Proposing Plan C
Downloadable audio: Dick Lawrence and Steve Andrews on ASPO USA Boston Conference
Israel: Desert oil find fuels dream but could prove mirage
Germany, France Urge Russia to Ratify Energy Charter
France and Germany urged Russia to ratify an international energy charter that would provide the European Union with greater security for its energy supplies.
Home wind turbines turn fashionable in Britain
Economic Growth Will Drive Biofuel Industry
“Economic growth is driving these developments,” notes Patricia Woertz, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland, a leading supplier of ethanol. “Global real GDP growth is expected to average 3.8% annually through 2030. But it is economic growth in Asia projected to average 5.5% per year that is shaping world scenarios - in particular China, with a 6% GDP followed by India at 5.4%.”
Grain stockpiles at lowest for 25 years
The world’s stockpiles of wheat are at their lowest level in more than a quarter century, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which on Thursday slashed its forecasts for global wheat and corn production.
Byron W. King: Hubbert's Defense Department
WHAT WILL THE WORLD LOOK LIKE on the backside of Hubbert's Peak? What you see depends upon where you stand. If you happen to stand in the Pentagon, the headquarters of the U.S. Department of Defense, the view is rather sobering. Well, what I mean to say is that if the view is not rather sobering, then whoever is doing the looking had better get their eyes checked.
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Canada Troops Battle 10-ft Afghan Marijuana Plants
..."We tried burning them with white phosphorous -- it didn't work. We tried burning them with diesel -- it didn't work. The plants are so full of water right now ... that we simply couldn't burn them," he said.
Even successful incineration had its drawbacks.
"A couple of brown plants on the edges of some of those (forests) did catch on fire. But a section of soldiers that was downwind from that had some ill effects and decided that was probably not the right course of action," Hillier said dryly.
One soldier told him later: "Sir, three years ago before I joined the army, I never thought I'd say 'That damn marijuana'."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061012/wl_canada_nm/canada_canada_marijuana_col;_ylt=Ajq8M_5I7cingqJnjg tuceJvaA8F;_ylu=X3oDMTA0cDJlYmhvBHNlYwM-
The maryjane is just good to hide in.
Cover - protects you against bullets
Concealment - hides you
Cover & Concealment - does both.
That's a good read. There are lots of things in there to pay special attention to, especially for those who think cellulosic ethanol is just a matter of time. Maybe, maybe not. But one thing it is not is a sure thing:
My next essay is going to delve into this issue a bit, and contrast it with biomass gasification - a much better process, in my opinion. I will also point out that lately a number of ethanol advocates have taken to calling their biomass gasification processes "cellulosic ethanol", for reasons that are not completely clear to me.
I'd be very interested in your opinion on this story about two UNL professors studying the use of sweet sorghum as the raw material for future ethanol production.
What I like about this is that it is originating academically, not corporate or venture capitalistically.
There are quite a few things with better yields than corn, but most have some other handling or capital issues. Don't know much about sorghum, but I don know that is the case with wheat.
(400 PSI containers is a tad engineering overkill when all yas need is a metal container.)
... A senior US official insisted the exercise is not aimed specifically at Iran...
The exercise, set for October 31, is the 25th to be organised under the US-led 66-member Proliferation Security Initiative and the first to be based in the Gulf near Bahrain, across from Iran, the officials said...
"It's an effort to bring a lot of Gulf states together to demonstrate resolve and readiness to act against proliferation," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Proliferation Security Initiative, established in 2003 under President George W. Bush, is a voluntary association of countries that agree to share intelligence information and work against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including through military exercises that practise interdiction techniques and coordination...
http://www.gulfnews.com/region/Bahrain/10074440.html
http://timesonline.typepad.com/mick_smith/2006/10/at_last_a_comma.html
And here is what the British Army thinks:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2402666,00.html
Worth a read (unless your name is Blair or Bush)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=410163&in_page_id=17 70&ico=Homepage&icl=TabModule&icc=NEWS&ct=5
This puppy will run :)
And all was quiet again.
Was this a warning to the next UK Prime-Minister?
Bad week for BushCo though, 600K + Iraqi dead (maybe)and the CGS of his major partner in the 'coalition of the willing' wanting to get out.
I assume Faux will cover this fairly and in depth?
How about a particularly bad few years for 600K+ Iraqis?
Apparently the death toll is only half the story. About 40 thousand Iraqis are heading out per month. The kind of Iraqis you need: Engineers, Doctors,Teachers, and yes... Dare I say Lawyers. - The kind of people it takes to build a shattered nation.
BTW: From today's papers, looks like the CGS of UKMil is safe: Nobody dare sack him, least of all B'Liar.
(Will you do us a big favour? When this fart of a man finally fucks off, can you put him on the rubber chicken lecture circuit in the US? Lectures entitled: ''I did it my way, if George said it was ok'' should go down well), -and he can pick up his pretty medal from congress as well
British Generals and Admirals have had issues with knaves, rats and politicos before but what happend on Friday is unprecedented. A lot of politicos, past and present have objected to the CGS's input. I wonder why?
Home before Christmas? Maybe Christmas 2007. Hope so. This whole Iraqi thing is without doubt the most disgusting atrocity on a nation ever committed by the US and UK in 200 years. And all done in our name by scum not fit to run a whelk stall let alone nations of quality of thought and deed.
The term Pandora's Box springs to mind, but I suppose the semi-literate NeoNaziCons would not have a clue. And anyway, Pandora isnt in the Bible so it cant be true.
About the time we thought Rabbit Skin Loin Cloths were fashionable, the peoples of Mesopotamia were baking the brilliant blue tiles of the Ishtar Gate, building in stone, evolving writing, mathematics and astronomy.
But hey! an Abrahms tank shell trumps all right?
End of Rant.
The Dow set another record today...and crude is under $60. And he's tough on terrorism you know...that is all I need to be happy in this world.
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?storyid=1093129081
Nice to see that it hit the theme I've shared, of happiness and not GDP, or ever-higher energy consumption.
These community solutions people I think have the right ideas. They need to team up with the people working on the physical design of settlements and infrastructure. If everyone with a lawn grows vegetables, where would they sell them? This relates to the thread a few days ago about establishing public squares and markets and a walkable downtown.
I am moving about a mile from here, and will have some ability to garden in pots, and I think do some "guerilla gardening" nearby - if only not easily identifiable stuff like sweet pototoes, okra, nettles, etc.
You can also stew it with tomatoes and onions, or make gumbo. All are wonderful. Also, since okra is viable up to 105F, everyone should get comfortable with it now. If the temperatures keep rising, it'll be a feature in many gardens in the years to come.
Harvest them every couple of days. When the pods get too big
(say more than 2.5 inches long) they get "woody". Quite productive
Good Eating,
Alan
I particularly like the Hummer ads like the one where the timid lady is at the playground and a rude kid cuts in front of hers at the slide and she say to the rude kids mother 'johnny was next' and the even ruder rude kids mother says 'not any more'. At that moment the timid mother sees a Hummer addvertisement on the side of a bus and the scene cuts to a dealer's showroom with the salesman handing over to the timid lady the keys to a Hummer. Next you see her behind the wheel of that monster with a big, slightly wicked smile on her face (probably looking for the rude kids mother to roll over).
but naturally a 'real-real simple' would not inspire advertisers.
There was a Simple Living I think, or something like that - all these mags are glossies, full of adverts for crap.
If you want to get the real essence of non-consumerist living, you have to hang with the last of the Depression kids at the local VFW or Senior Center.
darn that cheap energy!
Ants do the exact same thing. Drop a 5lb bag of sugar near an ant colony and before long, the colony has grown and expanded due to the good life brought on by this cheap energy source. After the suger is gone they start eating each other or attacking other ant colonies to take their stash.
It's just the way the world works.
if i must be reasonable, i'd say that we can't just speak in grand arcs and generalizations. when is energy "cheap" and when does that "end?" the devil is in the details.
to say it must end someday, and that the people alive then will be unprepared, is a bit of a reach. an optimist could answer otherwise, with as little grounding in fundimentals.
down, but not out.
I think it would be more correct to say "that is the cornucopian oversimplification of the arc of doomer thought."
In other words, please don't try to use a single brush stroke to characterize all of us who either don't believe our society/economy/lives will continue on the same path as we are currently on.
in the meantime, tod seems to draw another sort ...
Do you share that, or do you think I might be speaking to a more extreme player in his case?
Personally, I think there's a pretty good chance that we'll see a retraction starting in the next few months. Will this be THE crash? I doubt it since I don't believe in a single crash. By best guess at this point would be a series of recessions/depressions played out over decades, each one ending with a "recovery" to a lower economic standard of living.
But, that's not really my point. There are all sorts of different ideas about our future that get called "doomer" here. Some appear to me to be pure nonsense, others seem insightful. They may appear differently to ithers. Still, to paint them all as the same in some sense, especially in reference to the thought processes behind them, does a disservice to our efforts to have meaningful discussions here.
So, if you want to make fun of some conspiracy theory post that claims a coming inevitable global financial collapse - that's fine. But please don't lump me in with that, because I'm coming from a different place.
Just as you reacted negatively to my suggestion that you were a cornucopian (something I was counting on when I wrote it), others will react to your labelling them in the same way. So please be aware that, even among those who wear the label proudly (of which I am not one), there are many flavors of doomerism (there's that word again).
So when you're done thinking that you have the correct answer and wish to actually discuss what makes some of us think that a collapse is coming (and what that collapse might look like), I'll be here, and so will some others. You might find we can actually have a pretty good discussion.
Here's an idea. Ask a couple doomers exactly what is collapsing - and make them be specific. I've said this before here, what I believe we are seeing is the collapse of western civilization. If you'd like, I can go into more detail.
He says our society will crash, and goes on to explaint that it's the junk mail and etc:
I think you hung your response to me off the wrong thread, buddy.
I think my response was appropriate to the "doomer arc" in the above.
But I will admit, that you can be a rather frustrating fellow. You can appear to be quite bright in one post and almost intentionally dense in the next.
I was specifically asking you to be a litte more open minded about the wide variety of collapse theories. Certainly I agree with you that a collapse theory based on junk mail is not worth much. But you keep wanting to take the step of condemning all collapse theories because some are "out there."
The cornerstone question IMO is "where is your oil depletion rate?"
If this is a "peak oil" thing, and not a general philosophy (or a value-group gathered around a philosophy), you'll be able to tell me when the shorfall hits, and why the remaining energy sources are not sufficient to support a technological society.
He has, but I don't think he really understood the answers. Either he wasn't really trying, or it's so outside his frame of reference he just couldn't wrap his brain around it.
I guess that all comes out in the was as ... is it just me?
Or have the relatively few "doomers" in our society really found the threat and worry that the rest of us cannot see?
If don't you believe me. Look it up on Amazon. After reading the book within 36 hours of hearing of it, the reviews on Amazon were the only fix I could get. This book is not for kids and it is definitely not a Christmas present for anybody but your closest friends and family.
FWIW, I'll quote the earlier reference, from the Happiness and Public Policy blog:
We are all near-monkeys, with only imperfect machinery for rational thought. None of us gets off the hook here.
And I always get off the hook.
Oh, wait. Those hooks that Hitler hung those guys on that tried to assassinate him. How big were they? This raises interesting questions.
What do Hugo Chavez' torture prisons look like? Does the ICRC get access to them, too?
Saw III comes out on Halloween.
Doomers, IME, are not necessarily less happy or more anxious than others. If anything, it's "cornucopians" and "moderates" who are unhappy and anxious. On some level, they are worried, or they wouldn't come here. There's a certain peace that comes with accepting the worst. And if it doesn't come to pass, it's a happy surprise.
But the "hook" above is not really the happiness itself, but where it fits in broader ideas of human rationality. IIRC, some of us here have read Antonion Damasio's "Descare's Error" and recommended it here. The "happiness" book is in that line (and carries a jacket recommendation from Damasio). It is another well-recommended book about how our brains
And I quoted it in response to the bit where you of me "he couldn't wrap his brain around it."
That's right, and that's why I quoted the bits about "Our life is the creation of our mind" and " most people's minds have a bias toward seeing threats and engaging in useless worry."
Why couldn't I "wrap my brain" ... that's the big question.
I think my core position of uncertainty and moderation is based on a self-knowledge of my imperfect ability to foretell the future by "rational" means.
We suffer from an asymmetrical discussion in that sense. People more convinced than me are asking me (a) to believe in their conviction, and (b) to believe in their conclusion. All this of course while equally convinced people suggest quite different conclusions.
FWIW, I'm not asking you to believe anything. I'm interested in what other people believe, but I don't really care about changing it. Any more than I'd try to change someone's religion. (I always hated missionaries.)
Explain "collapse" to the general population, and X percent will come back believing it. To make a risky monkey prediction, I'd say that for large values of X that tells us something about society ... but for small values of X, it might tell us more about the distribution of human psychology and outlook.
I close, as I really should more often, with the excellent and ancient USENET acronym: YMMV.