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DrumBeat: October 14, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 14, 2006 - 9:17am
From the New York Times: The Deathwatch for Cheap Oil
THOSE falling prices at the gasoline pump may only be temporary. Indeed, they could signal the start of an era in which, forecasters say, “the death of cheap, abundant crude might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.”“Peak oil is a reality,” says Willem Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser quoted by Bloomberg Markets magazine. He is just one of many who believe that global oil production is now at or near its peak, and the only place to go is down.
OPEC to cut oil output, no quota talks
LAGOS (Reuters) - OPEC's planned oil output cut is a temporary response to a "catastrophic" fall in prices and not intended as a permanent re-alignment of production quotas, the group's president said on Saturday...."It's just the catastrophic drop. The time to do something is about now because we don't know where the floor of this drop will end. It would be foolish to wait till it gets to $10 before we do anything because that would really kill the capacity initiatives," Daukoru said.
Economists: Oil price slide should accelerate
The current slide in crude oil prices could accelerate into a plunge to as low at $35 per barrel next year, ConocoPhillips' chief economist, Marianne Kau, told a group of economists in Anchorage Oct. 11.
Saudi Arabia, as per the survey, had to trim its output by 100,000 bpd. The Financial Times estimated the Saudi output cut to the order of 200,000 bpd over the last couple of months. A senior OPEC official however, was quoted as saying the Saudi contribution to the output cut would be around 300,000 barrels per day. Varying figures of Saudi contribution indeed!In the meantime, news poured in that Saudi Arabia kept crude supplies steady to its customers in Asia for November. However, Saudi Aramco told some of its biggest customers last Monday it would lower November supplies by about 5 percent from this month.
The US military oil consumption is generally regarded to be a small amount compared to the country’s gigantic consumption. Since oil is and will remain a strategic vital commodity, the Pentagon does not have a luxury of turning its back to oil.
Energy crisis is main concern for Dominican industrialists
Afghanistan: Gas, oil reserves ten times more than predicted: Survey
KABUL: Mines and Mineral Minister Engineer Mohammad Ibrahim Adil said the recent surveys revealed oil and gas reserves in Afghanistan were ten times more than predicated.
India Idles $4.4 Billion of Power Capacity on High Gas Prices
India has idled $4.4 billion of power capacity because utilities can't pay international prices for natural gas to fire the turbines that were built to overcome blackouts, a government official said.
Russian energy: Europe's pride, US's envy
Buried beneath the heaps of hot words on North Korea's nuclear test, the announcement in Moscow on Monday about the Shtokman natural-gas deposit off Russia's Arctic coast almost escaped attention, despite its comparable lethal fallout in world politics.
Raymond J. Learsy: Energy Independence, Our Oil Shale Deposits, Making OPEC Obsolete
Study finds oilsands could mitigate climate change
"I think what's surprising about (the report) is the emphasis that carbon capture and storage has on the best scenario case and how Western Canada can actually help with climate change through carbon capture and storage," said Christine Schuh, Canadian climate change leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Former President Bill Clinton strongly supports California Proposition 87 - video.
Current President Bush Discusses Energy at Renewable Energy Conference. He thinks plug-in hybrids, cellulosic ethanol and hydrogen are the answers.
[Update by Leanan on 10/14/06 at 9:35 AM EDT]
Peak Oil Naysayers Partying On for Growth
The top dogs and their less successful defenders hide behind the religion of economic growth, puffing up their chests to speak so assuredly that there can be no long-term shortage of oil or energy. They adhere to neoclassical economics that claims resources are available according to price/supply/technological factors, not based on natural limits.The rest of the religious litany for growth relies on the unproven carrot "a rising tide lifts all boats." However, trickle down was already discredited even before Reaganism. The wasted '80s should have taught us all we needed to know. But no. Despite the worsening of key indicators as real income, energy security and environmental quality, the same people and system remain on top, screaming for more growth. Thrift and conserving are discouraged, and record indebtedness encouraged, as economists cheer on consumer buying-power as the driver behind the global economy.
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We'll start with some old concepts.
I notice this one is my most popular. It's like Stuart's best one. Mine's not as good. It's never developed the following. I miss Stuart. This one was based on his work.
It's not updated. It's too much work right now. But we can fill in the gaps from what I'm about to show you.
First we're going to move back to one that was my first and which I still follow, but have learned is not a popular format.
Let me warn you this one is crude. But look at it twice. The crudeness is in the presentation - not the data.
It's a good reminder why we need to update things.
Now for a Zoomed out View. This is how oil moves.
So here's the new stuff. I need to add events, but I also need to keep the font large enough so it works visually. Who's going to write history.
Price Zoom Out 2
Price Zoom In 1
The smooth lines are always averages. Click on the image itself if you want a bigger one.
In this case I used a 13-month centered moving average. Which was a new idea to me at the time. I prefer trailing moving averages(I refer to them as SMA or simply moving average in some of my charts). Somehow Stuart convinced me. I use a hybrid now, undectectable to the human eye.
That's my last pure production. I can say that the updated version with two more months' data looks virtually the same.
The plateau continues. I'll say this only at this point. I've got another 18 months before I'll decide whether anything has been dropping. Or rising. Six months ago I would have told you the same thing. Maybe in another 6 months I'll make a decision.
This is LOL funny-- you gotta see it
http://www.endofworld.net/
There are no answers to these questions.
The references you see are theories put forth by certain luminaries in the oil world.
Remember back when certain people told others they could
turn lead to gold
or that the earth was round
or that witches don't float
Which one of those three is right and how the fuck would you know?
See what I mean?
Back then turning lead to gold was where the focus was. I'm pretty sure it's the same today.
I'm pretty sure nobody has a really clear motive to prove that witches either sink or swim to save your life.
Why's that. Witches and You don't count. It's all about the...
- Lead into gold - a few billion well spent tax dollars shows that turning lead into gold is not a money making venture, and that it is surprisingly more esoteric than any alchemist ever imagined. And if it hadn't been for that alchemy fantasy, I doubt anyone would ever have bothered doing it.
- Earth is round - you just take a well in Alexandria and one in Cyrene, wait for noon, do some geometry. Of course, you do actually have to be mathematically literate.
- Everyone knows by the time you find a witch, it is time to have a bit of righteous public entertainment ending in the just punishment of the evildoers. Historically, this has been a very reliable form of entertainment among people - though it only had a minor run in North America (sort of like how Americans just don't get soccer).
What is interesting is just how often people who could do 1. or 2. were considered wizards/witches.I do think that there is a level beyond money - for example, staying warm in the winter isn't really about money, it is about survival. It is just that many people in North America can't imagine what it is like to live without any fuel in the wintertime, regardless of how much money they have. Check out the mass migrations of Germans from East to West in the winter of 1944-45 to escape the Russians to get a feel for what I mean - even if you were rich/powerful enough to have a vehicle, and fuel, it just meant the strafing fighters found you worth their time. For most Europeans who were alive before 1940 or so, such a concern with heat and survival is not theoretical, along with the awareness of how unimportant money is compared to staying alive.
I think part of the general confusion here is the difference between money as a source/representation of human motivation/activity, and the fact that reality is not the same as human motivation/activity. Just like turning lead into gold, it is conceivable that the Texas oil fields could go back to producing what they did in the early 1970s. It is just up until now, no one has figured out a way to replace what has been burnt. This can be thought of as finite (really huge to beyond human comprehension) and conceivable not being equal to infinite (never ending). After all, a few billion atoms of gold from lead sounds huge - until you do the math.
Well said, Well said. Sadly, come crunch time, I must agree with your statement that the ignorant will probably do in the witches/wizards that offer the best chance for them to be lead out of the darkness. Such is life-- that is why Socrates gladly drank the hemlock. Can we possibly be better philosophers when our time has come?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Lynch is strong. Pickens is peak oils' worst enemy. He just doesn't understand. Everybody forgot about Economides. And he outflanked everybody.
The great thing about oil smacking low is that it is knocking over false prophets like ... like ... like Hewlett Packard CEO's.
To think I lamented this storm a month ago. We may need another job. Kid, we're lucky we're still alive. Okay. Okay? That's all you've got to say? Okay. Okay.
Yes, that is the big question. Generally speaking, if prices are high we would say it is supply limited. If prices are low then that points to a failure of demand. Despite the recent fallback, prices even today can still be considered high. If we truly had an oil glut then producers would be competing with each other to cut prices, and we'd see historically low prices of $10-20 per barrel. Since we're not, that points to supply limitations.
Having said that, we should keep in mind that market participants look to the future as well as the present in making their decisions. Producers may choose to produce below the maximum if they believe that we will have shortages in the future and their oil will be worth even more then. A production cutback in the face of high prices is therefore not necessarily evidence that we are at peak now, but it suggests that producers see a peak as a realistic possibility within their planning horizon, and that is affecting their decisions today.
http://mainelyenergy.com/
An addendum. On the one with the Lebanon conflict. The shooting started on July 12th. That is hugely important. It is a terrible omission. I was aware of the problem when I went to print. That's why I called it a Beta. There's one more Zoom out I have to do on this but I haven't decided on a time frame.
It's a long way to the top if you wanna Rock 'n' Roll.
Is it really you Jack Black? Loved your movie (School of Rock).
I Love Jack Black. Funny as hell. But I can't tell any of his movies apart. Is that me? Or does this guy need to find a new routine if he wants to stay in Hollywood.
In an attempt to retain my sanity. It's all about Borat. Check my comments on TOD for a reference to Borat. If Leanan or Super-G hasn't deleted it I mentioned Borat before the movie existed. So that's either premonition or I'm delusional.
"There is no God. And we are all his prophets."
For anybody that wants to dis me. For anybody thinks I'm full of shit - I just saw an ad. They were trying to convince people that they didn't have to eat less to lose weight. You've seen it. Watch it again. Then Try to say I'm fucking with you. Yeah right fella.
I'm trying to watch ABC Evening news. They got college football on. OK, tis the season. When I hear college Football the only thing I know is Nebraska. So I was brainwashed. Oh, scratch that...Thank God for NBC.
Check the Cat Power regimen. She's got it going where she can be crazy and keep it under control. Sort of.
I didn't miss LSD. You're thinking of someone else.
2 more things. Try younger women. I don't believe the pedophile routine you did the other night. Young women (not girls) smell and feel clean, not messy. Though you may feel dirty. (You dirty old man.) I've encountered only one woman of a certain age who could be unmessy. (How bad is messy?)
And Seroquel. Know when.
Great video, down the boulevard in Melbourne.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=H1iR2Wi3u5o
I was actually one of the back-up bag-pipers on the flat-bed. A lot of people are unaware of that. Did you catch the black helicopter circling above right towards the end?
You are correct. Those "reporter persons" got their wires inverted ... as usual.
- The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
- Envisioning Information
- Visual Explanations
- Beautiful Evidence
They're all in print, available though your favorite online bookseller or from Tufte's own publishing company, Graphics Press http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/Tufte has cornered the niche (?) of practical information design in the social and political sciences, and to a lesser extent the physical sciences. He used to be prof. of Social Science at Yale, but retired some years ago and now makes a living by publishing and consulting. You should try to catch his 1-day seminar if you live in the US and he comes to your city.
In recent years he has started to come across as being a bit intellectually arrogant. I think he is increasingly frustrated by the world's refusal to embrace his ideas, but his books are still worth reading. If you are going to buy just one, it should be "Visual Display", which is now in its second edition. His critiques of NASA's root-cause analyses of the two Shuttle accidents are available as pamphlets from Graphics Press (also in the books), and are a good introduction to his way of thinking.
Oil CEO - if you feel your graphs could be improved (and they're not perfect, though they could be a lot worse), read "Visual Display" for ideas. My own advice would be to lose the color-gradient background - what information does it convey? And find a way to make the dates on the axes a bit less random. I realize you're probably constrained by time, convenience and cost to use Excel, but even the bastard offspring of Micros~1 can produce good results with a bit of coaxing.
Your last paragraph is the best because that is where you tear into me. I'm aware of these things. I wanted feedback. The color gradient thing is problematic for me. I need it to put the focus of my own eye on the graph. A white background distracts me. That's a personal problem. I realize that. The Dates are horrible. I've tried so many hacks around what I'm given, I can't tell you. Paris is gonna throw me some bucks for a new laptop soon. Maybe she'll send me Boone Pickens' rejects with the killer chart skills. God knows they did him right.
I tought myself C++. Why am I afraid of Excel? Yeah, you're coaxing me. Cuz I'm getting to old for this shit. But the truth always stays the same. If you wannit done right, you gotta do it yourself. Thanks again for slapping me in the head. The plucky underdog. rarely posts. always hits hard. always a friend.
What happened to Stuart, anyway? Is he just busy these days?
In the meanwhile I would like to take a moment to thank all the current editors for their outstanding work to continue to make TOD the best energy discussion site on the web.
I am a Senior Contributor to The Oil Drum. I have been around here a long time and Stuart became an editor just about the time I started publishing here.
In my view, Stuart is a very smart guy and I miss his contributions, too.
But, for whatever reasons -- he has certainly not told me or anyone else to my knowledge -- he has decided to devote his time elsewhere -- I assume this is in his own best interest timewise and moneywise and therefore he has stopped giving us his detailed analysis of important issues relating to peak oil, the economy, etc.
That said, he has left us with a great body of work -- but not complete, by any means, because the situation is always in flux. Nonetheless, I hope people will look through it because it describes some peak oil fundamentals in a way that everybody should be familiar with. It is available to anyone who cares to look.
Therefore, Stuart has apparently opted-out. That's his choice. Why don't we deal with who is here now? OK? If Stuart wants to resume his work here, that would be welcome but don't count on it or wonder where he is. Everybody got it?
And by the way -- if you want to Stuart or me or anybody else to tell you "the truth", well, you can let us do that based on the fact that some of us actually do a lot of research on the many issues involved. However, I recommend that people work on their own to research the issues and come up with their own conclusions based on the evidence. OK?
Dave, I think we appreciate all the contributors work here very much...thanks for sharing.
I am trying to find the date of, and if possible, a link to the original Daniel Yergin - CERA report which states, something to the effect, that a field by field survey of new projects coming on line, means no peak oil for many years. I am more concerned with the date of the original report because I wish to do a timeline of events and what has happened to world oil production since that date.
Thanks a million to anyone that can help.
Ron Patterson
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/29/AR2005072901672.html
http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/Daniel%20Yergin
Google Rat
As for me, I say we have plenty of oil left to complete the job of trashing the environment.
Some rubbish from the BBC. Does Norway produce 17.3 million
bbl/day? This says so twice!
'Oil price up on Statoil shutdown'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6049988.stm
A nice example of the daft things you can do with very cheap inputs - Composting wool because it's too cheap to sell.
'Using the wool no-one wants'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5317358.stm
and some more BBC rubbish - how does lower overheads mean people spend less??
'Lower petrol prices hit US retail'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6048212.stm
cheers all
online at:
https:/aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter.htm
{https:aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter.htm}
{https:aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter.htm}
{http://www.peakoil.ie/newsletters/aspo65}
Or you can download the PDF directly:
aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter70.pdfhttps:
{https:aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter70.pdf}
{https:/aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter67.pdf}
{http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter65_200605.pdf}
Articles in this newsletter:
- ASPO-USA Conference
- European Union addresses Peak Oil
- Regional Assessment - EUROPE
- Oil Depletion Protocol
- Oil Price
- Discovery so far in 2006
- Russia puts pressure on foreign companies
- Worries in the Tar-belt
- Mr Blair Speaks of an Energy Crisis
759. ASPO Canada760. Life after Oil
ASPO October Newsletter (PDF)
American Petroleum Institute Argues for More Pervasive Ethanol Use at Lower Blend Ratios Instead of E85
Duh.
Exactly how hard is mixing gasoline and ethanol? Can it be done using a simple mechanism at the pump, to varying amounts, from a gasoline tank and a seperate ethanol tank?
Being about to buy anything from E2 to E100 on the same mass-produced gas pumps seem like a good capability.
Is there already a law or something, to make 100% of the current auto fleet E10 ready?
I simply don't understand how it can prevent water mixing. Water mixes readily with alcohol. When you get water in your gas tank, you can buy a little bottle of stuff at Auto Zone to get rid of the water. It is basically alcohol. The alcohol allows the water to mix with the gasoline and you just get rid of it by pushing it through your engine a tiny bit at a time.
Alcohol allows water mixing, it does not prevent it.
This information was told to me by a fuel retailer in the upper midwest that was also an ethanol distributor in several cities.
So for E-85 it is important to not let too much water get in the fuel tank.
Its simple. Assuming you have ethyl alchol without water.
The problem is Ethyl Alcohol likes water. 195 proof at the still head, and 190 proof is 'stable'...ok not sucking water out of the air.
To mix Alcohol and gas, the alcohol needs to be water free.
- Water and ethanol are miscible (pure ethanol is extremely hygroscopic, as EB points out)
- Gasoline and water are miscible
- Water and gasoline are immiscible
Hydrocarbon distribution and storage systems always have some water in them, but they are engineered to get all the water out before it gets into your gas tank. This is normally done by allowing the water to settle out in storage tanks and occasionally drainng the water layer off through an outlet at the bottom.If you start blending in too much ethanol, the water can stay dissolved until it reaches your car and you will end up corroding the fuel pumps or injectors.
- Water and ethanol are fully miscible
- Gasoline and ethanol are fully miscible
- Water and gasoline are fully immiscible
"Fully miscible" means any mixture of the two will form a single phase. "Fully immiscible" means no mixture will form a single phase.Do not try this at home.
corn chart
soybean chart
wheat chart (all time high for wheat)
and interestingly, soybean oil, which can be viewed as a composite of soybean and oil prices, in not going up much (due to swoon in gasoline and oil prices)
See also my post below on Australia's drought and failing harvests. The US government stats below for October are still "wildly optimistic".
NOTE: China is the word's largest wheat producer AND the largest importer.
Thxs for this info. Consider this sad Aussie news:
-------------------------
Drought lifts suicide rates: Kennett
The chairman of anti-depression organisation Beyond Blue, Jeff Kennett, has confirmed the drought is increasing farmer suicide rates.
Mr Kennett says conditions for farmers have never been worse.
He has told Southern Cross Radio many of them are at their wits' end.
"One farmer in rural Australia takes his own life every four days now, one farmer every four days," he said.
--------------------------------------
[bolding by Bob Shaw for emphasis]
Tragic as this is, the loss of farming knowledge is even worse. The Aussie Govt. should be pulling out all the stops to find funding for these farmers. Maybe a huge program whereby: farmers on worthless farms are highly compensated to move to cities to teach permaculture. IMO, I have no 'best' solution for Nature's incredible forces.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for responding. Yep, the topdogs are NOT interested in saving the peasants' asses. It is not their plan--how true.
What I think is interesting is the protest differences between biosolar peasants and detritovore peasants. Farmers, around the world, seem to commit suicide [taking their knowledge with them] when they can't take it anymore; they don't seem to strike out against the System. Recall the 100,000 Indian farmers that removed themselves in a singular fashion by ingesting pesticide.
Detritovores, like the Bangladeshi urban dwellers when their electricity went out, instead protest by burning and looting the very System that they should be doing everything to conserve. I am not sure why these protest differences are so clearly delineated.
I think the same phenomena will happen here in the US postPeak. The farmers will off themselves, and the SUV owners will be fighting, robbing, and looting for the last drops of ancient sunshine. Go figure.
I am not positive as to the statistics, but I think US farmer suicide rates and 'accidentally lethal' farming accidents already make this profession quite hazardous now.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
You always have a view on such matters and thinking about how folks act when TSHTF I remember images of Katrina that show it very precisely.
They would go into a store. Break the windows, whatever and take what they wished to take.
Now they later said this"they had water, we needed water and we took it" and they thought this was not considered stealing and IMO its likely not.
They also took clothing and it appeared to be theft but they said to the camera later "our clothes were ruined by the water and muck , they had clothes so we took them"
I wondered at the time how jewelry stores fared but that was not reported.
In summary to me it showed exactly how the populace will react. They will simply take what they want. Justified or not they will take it.
Was their concern shown for their fellow humans during Katrina by those experiencing it? Perhaps but I did not see too much of this on the TV. I saw huge concern by the rescuers. What I saw the ones there doing was looking out for THEMSELVES.
airdale
Thxs for responding. The Bangladeshis, in their ignorance, cooperated in destruction vs getting together to help stretch the electricity supply. They burned and looted the infrastructure vs forming a neighborhood committee to conserve energy. For example, they could agree to watching just a couple of neighborhood tvs, unplugging the rest, to help keep the area refrigerators running. They could form groups to help protect from copper wire thefts, and pool money to guarantee reliable electrical service to critical hospitals, refrigerated food warehousing, electrified trains, etc. Most importantly, they should be writing their elected officials to stop subsidizing electricity--to charge people the true cost so that it helps promote the actions listed above. Any of these steps is better than burning the offices, repair trucks, and substations of their electrical utility.
Destruction makes no sense to me-- it should also be obvious to a mob, but I guess a collective group loses it collective mind. Until social cooperation becomes the norm, I remain a fast crash doomer. Looking out for THEMSELVES by cooperation goes much further than looking out for themselves through competition. My two cents.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
In many parts of the country, it is in something like its 7th year. I think in Western Australia, over 10 years. Sydney is in about its 5th year of drought.
If you look back over thousands of years, Australia has cycled through much wetter and dryer periods than now. It may be that Australia is going through one of those dry cycles, which may last hundreds or thousands of years.
The drought has hastened the crunch.
Chesapeake has a lot of debt and their lenders are unlikely to cooperate in any cuts that result in a decrease to their revenue stream.
Orange Juice Squeeze: Florida Has Smallest Orange Crop in 17 Years
I have to get used to Commodity Speak, where the term "bullish" means lousy harvests and higher prices for consumers.
Yep, the free market is seriously out of whack when unharvested crops, due to labor shortages, are left rotting in the fields, causing huge financial losses to farmers.
We really need to get started on moving from 0.7% of the workforce doing agricultural work, to 60-75% of the workforce doing agricultural work, if we truly desire to shut the border and mitigate Peakoil. Otherwise, we can expect huge levels of violence in our urban areas from food shortages. It would be far better if the US had a stored 3 year supply of foodstuffs to help ease the transition to permaculture everywhere, instead of relying upon record wheat prices and other phenomena to induce this paradigm shift. It will take years to develop the skills and resources required to make even a small contribution to localized foodstuffs: the sooner we get started, the better to reduce violence.
Here, in my small neighborhood of the Asphalt Wonderland, a lot of businesses are closing. I really should get a digital camera and upload pictures of all the empty stores in my area stripmalls. Then upload another picture of how crowded the parking lot of the local Goodwill store is with cars. My favorite is the long fenced-off gas-station that is plastered with election posters promising better times ahead if you vote for any politician.
My emails to the city council asking for them not to build a huge senior community center on the last piece of local vacant land was ignored. So, instead of a hoped-for neighborhood garden plot: a huge parking lot with a large building was built instead. It is not a housing project, but a place where it is hoped seniors will gather to play cards and paint trinkets-- yeah, right! What a waste of taxdollars that could have gone instead to mitigation. Sadly, the grand opening is soon.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
This is why I think it may be difficult to maintain our technology in the poscarbon age. People who pulled their kids out of school in the 4th or 8th or 10th grade weren't just anti-education idiots. They needed the kids on the farm.
Bob, youre dead on with the number of people needed in food production, and yes, the loss of knowledge, as well as the time to re-learn, will be major roadblocks. Don't forget the fact that much of the land is as addicted to chemicals as the worst junkie, and there's long-lasting chemical pollution just about everywhere. Plant trees!
But that border closing thing won't pan out until the US is a s poor as Mexico, and the rest of Middle America. It works exactly the way air pressure does: from high to low, the zeroth law of thermodynamics, and there's nothing you can do to stop that.
Hundreds, if not thousands, of Africans have died this year so far trying to get into Europe. Desperate times are here.
"We really need to get started on moving from 0.7% of the workforce doing agricultural work, to 60-75% of the workforce doing agricultural work, if we truly desire to shut the border and mitigate Peakoil."
I make every possible effort to be open minded, but a person has to draw a line and make a stand somewhere, so personal offense to anyone, but:
The sentence quoted at the start of this post is sheer madness and so obviously disproven over time that it borders on outright evil. If the idea of trying to willfully drive the people out into the fields were to begin to take hold, it should be fought with every tool and every organ of press and propaganda available to the American people as the Maoist slavery and deconstruction of culture that it is.
The "back to the land" noble savage nature fantasy is just that, a pure fantasy.
It seems to now be believed by some that because small bands of yeomen farmers could feed themselves hundreds of years ago in this fashion, using the product of the labor of a large train of young children and healthy young adults born into the household, and an almost endless supply of virgin ground and clean fresh water, that it will work today.
One tries to picture going and dragging the prosperous silver haired fox off the golf course and sticking him out in the field hand pulling corn off the stalk (have you ever done it? Because I have...), in late summer/early autumn some 8 hours a day....what is your guess as to how long this ole' fellow, needing a daily dose of medicine to cope with his recent 4 way bypass and high blood pressure (and I am not laughing, I take the factory made pharmacy miracles every single day myself, and I am 47 years old) would survive? Maybe a week? And he sure can't, as the old Anglo Saxon or Frank overachiever could hope to do, count on the healthy young offspring to get out there and do it, since most of the boomers created barely enough offspring to act as replacement population for the old folks.
This is just one more of the elitist, fantastical, totally insane notions that complete destroys the credibility of those who are very serious in their deep concern about America's energy future if they associate themselves with it.
It is easily recognized as what Toffler described as the "Yearning For a New Dark Age", or neo-neo post fossil fuel Medievalism, by way of Rousseau through Ruskin and Morris, to Kunstler and Heinberg.
It is an aesthetic/philosophical position that has nothing to do with science, or for that matter, energy.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Okay, I think I can understand how you oppose this idea with a short-term outlook. But you don't offer a viable solution for the postPeak age. When all of North America has only the equivalent of 1 million barrels/day from all fossil fuel sources--what is your solution? Then 2 mil/day, then 4 mil/day, then 8 mil/day, then 16 mil/day? If for some reason [like the US is losing allies?], 100% of our oil imports were suddenly cutoff [60% of our current daily usage]--what is your solution?
I think you will agree 60-75% of us working in permaculture is the only viable solution to mitigate the dieoff violence as much as possible. No tech will ever replace good topsoil, clean water, and a vibrant ecosystem.
I have no clear ideas on how this could be easily done except to make everyone aware through massive PO & GW Outreach; where society would yearn to turn away from detritus MPP and embrace biosolar MPP and sustainable efforts. Easier said than done, of course, that is why I am a fast-crash Jay Hanson type doomer, but I am always trying to create workable mitigation; optimizing the squeeze through the bottleneck.
There are lots of Permaculture websites & Orgs--are you saying that they are wasting their time by this huge volunteerism effort? I have never said we need to willfully drive people out from the cities, but we need to figure out how to incentivize them--Big difference.
Watch the 4 Youtube videos from the BBC called, "The Century of Self". If they can convince us to happily buy useless crap, they can convince us to desire voluntary population control, bicycling, powerdown, and relocalized permaculture. Common sense should be already be sufficient [if everyone practiced it], but who knows--maybe Madison Ave, once they figure out how to profit from the transition, will lead the charge to the lifeboats.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
You'd have to be a bigger optimist than me to say that those will all work out, but you have to be a bigger pessimist than me to say that none of them will ... long term.
The key in my opinion is about time frames. We have a certain amount of technology and solutions now, we might have more later. Will we have enough when we need it?
That's the $64,000 question.
We can throw numbers around for how fast oil production will decline (as you do) but I think we should show restraint in that. Do we know? Or do we just trade "scary" scenarios?
(ie. if "100% of our oil imports were suddenly cutoff")
Bob's post borders on "outright evil"?
LMAO!!! This is definitely deserves the "over the top post of the year award." Roger, you post some pretty off-the-chain stuff but this one takes the cake. Thnks for the laughs!
"the road to hell is paved with good intentions."
Is Bob the person evil? I like to think not. But is the "plan" to put 60% of the population back on the land sure to lead, if carried to it's conclusions, to repression, hunger, misery, and in the end a complete failure of culture far greater than "peak oil" could have ever created on it's own, evil in it's effects?
I think with absolute assurance that it is. So, whether it be evil in intent is a moot point, it is evil in outcome.
I would not be prone to say something like this as pure hyperbole. I base it on the assumption that anyone familiar with the history of this century knows where these type of utopian schemes always have led. That may be an overestimation of our posters and readers knowledge of history, but I hope not. And, we can always try to hope this time, for the first time, it will be different. I tend to think not.
There are many, many options and plans that can be readily and easily discussed. I may not agree with all of them on a technical basis. But technology changes, or it is always possible that I misunderstood and or was fully read on the technology, or the plan under discussion. I am fully willing to discuss plans that may or may not work, as long as they are not obvious in their destruction of humanity.
There are some plans however, that are so obvious in the absolute horrendous nature of their outcome that there really is one option, and only one available, and that is to resist them with all the tools at our command.
I am not opposed to the ideas of "permaculture", which to me are simply a return to sane and imaginative agriculture/horticulture. Such things a contour planting, mixed multi level planting, retention of compost material, how can anyone argue with what have been known for as good practices for many years? The only argument against permaculture is profit, in that margins can be cut on costs, and fast money can be made at the expense of the land, a scheme that borders on a kind of evil in it's own right.
I will deal with alternatives in other posts, as I always have, but let me just say this: If, as one poster said, fuel imports were cut off, and the U.S. had to survive on 60% or even less of our current energy budget, my view has always been and still is: One can simply look around and see enough waste and bad design of our systems to be able to remove the missing 40% plus of the lost energy far, far before even considering the option of driving an aging baby boom nation out into the fields to die.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
I think it's going to happen. Not because we plan it, but because we don't.
Maybe not with the Boomers, but eventually.
Has the AZ economy deteriorated markedly in the last year? I went to grad school in Tucson in the 80's and visited last October for the first time since '91. Things seemed robust then, or maybe it was just being floated by housing before the fall.
Up where I live now in Seattle, things are somewhat better. It seems as if every (service) business nearby is looking for employees. Of course, not all at that income level can afford to live nearby.
Brian
Thxs for responding. I am no econ expert, just noticing what is going on in my local burb. I know that there are parts of the Valley of the Sun that are booming, and other parts that are declining. How much of this is due to normal economic & competitive processes vs Peakoil diminishing returns is hard to tell.
I see a lot of help-wanted signs too--elderly skewed demographics and the crackdown on illegals by our County Sheriff, Joe Arpaio, accounts for most of this labor shortage, IMO. I have noticed the bus stops having more riders since I became aware of Peakoil 3 years ago. But auto traffic has also become more congested in that time too.
Phoenix has had tremendous growth over the past 3 years, so it is hard to tell if a significant percentage have started to commute in smaller circles locally, or a larger percentage, moving to the new outlying burbs, are commuting in far larger energy circles. My guess would be the latter because they are building evermore car dealerships all over the Asphalt Wonderland, and the bicycle shop nearest me has closed its doors.
It is pretty obvious to me that environmentally: we are much worse off than when I first moved here in 1964. My girlfriend's house is built on desert land that I used to ride my mini-bike on years ago. Now the cities & burbs go for miles in all directions.
My hunch is that Phx, Vegas, etc will continue to grow like mad until the perfect storm of the combo of high A/C, water, and fuel costs kills the golden goose. Then these areas will mostly empty out in record time as we all head North to Cascadia.
One wild-ass theory I have: to prevent this huge northward migration from swamping Cascadia-- the Feds will give most of Southern CA, AZ, NV, & New Mex back to Mexico. Then, the military will forcefully shutdown any attempted mass-migration in response to southwestern droughts from Global Warming. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Exactly!!!! But first I have to convince the ruling desert detritovores that biosolar is the way to go. I think they would rather die trying to kill the peasants than to join with us and get their hands dirty working the soil.
When push come to shove, smart rich guys like Richard Rainwater will lay off their useless detritovore employees. His professional horticulturist, that supervises his huge survival farm, will then be the highest compensated employee in his organization.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Why don't you save yourself and get out of that place. You know Arizona is an artificial environment totally dependent on cheap energy. You could never grow anything without pumped in irrigation. The summers will kill you without a/c. Why not find a place where you have a 10% chance of survival?
If I remember correctly, Bob's mom is ill. I think he detailed his reasons for staying put in a previous post. He made a great point which is that even if you aware of this stuff, relocating is not always pragmatic for reasons relating to financial or familial ties.
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/13/181134/68
an energy economist's seven-point prescription for using energy more efficiently
These are the people that say "we can't do that since the discounted cashflow projection suggest it is not economically viable in the short term". They are the reason why no significant steps are taken and no long term vision is employed.
Isn't it surprising that this economist's solution is to tax more...
Sweet.
Given UK traffic patterns (roundabouts!) and the general incompatibility between wearing a suit at work (universal) and cycling to work, not many people cycle to work.
More in London than used to, I think, pre congestion charge.
Somewhat under our daily radar, Australia is slipping into disaster. Harvests are failing to such an extent that the world's no.3 grain exporter may have to halt exports altogether.
The country exports some 80% of its production. Well, it's about to lose those same 80%. Someone's going to pay and starve.
Moreover, sometime soon this will lead to serious questions about the production of crops for ethanol.
The Australian climate is as I recall already in a long term drying phase - so additional perturbations caused by global warming are worsening the problems. Its more and more obvious that the long term carrying capacity of the south, south east and eastern coasts (where 80% of the population is)in terms of water is falling, as a result of agricultural/urban demand. The major acquifer systems inland have steadily been depleted (salinification is a major and increasing problem). Australia (or at least the bits 'useful' to humans) is drying out.
(a) The environment; and
(b) The standard of living.
If global warming continues and the droughts get to be standard, we can pretty well wipe off Australian grain exports. This will put a moderately serious hole in the economy, but people will still be able to afford to buy food.
Two thirds of water used in Australia are for agricultural purposes, but the bulk of that goes for low value-added activities. A small but increasing amount is used for high value-added activities like fruit and vegetables. Only about 10% of total water use is for drinking water.
A bit of perspective is called for, then. The drought might bring on a recession, but it won't lead to "a nation dying".
The environmental problems, however, look quite serious. A lot of the ecosystems in this country are pretty stressed already. Having a long series of dry years topped off by the worst drought on record will probably be a disaster for many ecosystems and lead to serious degradation. I'm not, however, up on the details.
Finally, Australian farmers are, in general, far closer to detritovores than biosolar peasants. Energy consumption on Australian farms is pretty high, with tractors being just the beginning. The average Australian grain farm uses a vast amount of agricultural machinery (often owned by the contractor who comes through to do the tilling or the harvesting). On the vast cattle stations that sprawl across the north of the country, helicopters and motor bikes have replaced horses and dogs for mustering. And as for cotton, the scale of the industrial inputs mean a cotton farm can best be understood as an outdoor factory.
Peak oil will mean a substantial cut in Australian agricultural production but not, however, a collapse. The lower cost of land here has meant that production has not had to be industrialised to the extent it has been in the US or Europe and thus there is a lesser distance to fall.
And the reason some Australian farmers are committing suicide is quite different from events in India. Farmers in this country have been conned into thinking that they are businessmen and that their interests lie on the political Right. In the last 20 years or so, their political party, the National Party, has been taken over by economic rationalists (i.e. neo-liberals) who preach the gospel of rugged individualism and worship of the free market. The change in the National Party is related to the fact that its policies are dictated more by the mining companies that fund it than the rural people who make up its membership. While the farmers aren't happy with the results of their policies, they haven't yet given up on the ideology.
The victory of economic rationalism amongst farmers in Australia means that they are left helpless when the banks and the agribusiness corporations come to do them over, since resisting them would mean collective action and a return to State regulation. Their ideology teaches them that their predicament is their own fault and offers no way out. It's no wonder that some kill themselves.
Thxs for this great posting on AUS! Please email it to the aussie farmer groups & orgs--you might save some farmer's life. What do you think of my idea whereby farmers, on now non-productive land, are somehow compensated to become teachers of permaculture and animal husbandry in the suburbs? I have never been to OZ, but it sure is pretty.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Tim Flannery talks about the drought in The Weather Makers. Some quite powerful anecdotes.
Perhaps unsurprisingly for one of the world's largest fossil fuel exporters, the Howard government is explicitly staffed with global warming deniers
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/09/greenhouse_dirty_dozen_at_work.php
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/02/the_greenhouse_mafia.php
(scroll down the page)
along with the US government (and now the Canadian) these are the only major western governments that officially deny there is a problem with global warming.
A town north of Sydney is faced with getting its water from recycled sewage water. Needless to say, there is a local uprising at this measure. Other cities on the coast are looking into desalination.
The problem is the farmers are borrowed to the hilt, and the banks are foreclosing.
Agriculture is actually not a huge part of Australia's exports. But it is rooted in the national culture and self image.
Here are some of my conclusions at this time, given HO's excellent write-up of the St. Louis conference. I duplicate HO's chart from USDA economist Keith Collins for convenience.
Generally speaking, using biomass to generate electricity is the way to go. The biomass + wind pathway should be combined with revamping the powergrid to include both sources. In turn, electricity should form the basis of future transporation systems. This also requires huge changes in the power delivery infrastructure. The sooner we own up to the problem, the more we mitigate the crash.
I could go on but perhaps you get the idea: the reason why I write on oil & natural gas issues is because additional supply is the only immediate help. The longer this ethanol craze goes on, the more time we are wasting. Some of you have been critical of Simmons for promoting development of ANWR. While I feel ambivalent about that -- and don't know if there are significant resources there or not -- it is an indication of how desperate the situation is becoming. In my stranded oil story, I went off to look for some fossil fuels. What I found was that we could get another 1.0/mbpd by 2015 using CO2 EOR. I'll take it, but that's not nearly enough. As we try to develop some new supply, realistic initiatives to turn things around (I mentioned a few above) plus conservation measures must be undertaken with all possible speed.
Debunking corn-based ethanol is fine in so far as it may help end the craze sooner. As I mentioned, what's really going to kill it off is its own non-viability. So, in the meantime, I'm still going to be off looking for that oil & natural gas.
-- Dave
Lets face it, less energy = Less/No Growth = collapse of the current social and work paradigms.
8% depletion per year for Canterell, What does that do to the Mexican economy, what will it do to US economy 2008+.
I think it will be a foot race between conservation and depletion.
Maybe hit has helped limit total growth to produce a plateau, or maybe we have some upward room.
But the main thing is you cannot take a field delcine, use it to imply the global delcine and then say "Lets face it [...]"
Face what, what will be the global decline post-peak, and how does that rate of decline change over time?
We are back to "nobody knows" but many seem willing to hang off that unknown specific predictions about "less energy = Less/No Growth = collapse of the current social and work paradigms."
When an American conserves, he or she spends the money somewhere else, creating a job somewhere else in the economy.
This is why all those arguments that we cannot have restrictions on carbon emissions are bollocks.
The money paid on carbon permits will go somewhere and be spent. The economy will not magically shrink.
You are very right. But nobody does the assessment. The only true research I've seen, from Feb '06, goes to a long way towards explaining why.
Big Oil profits would disappear, and so would a huge chunk of UK tax revenues. Ironically, the report is based on numbers from that same UK government's Treasury department.
Brief: don't count on any such assessment anytime soon. Both governments and oil companies will try very hard to derail any serious effort.
NOTE: the UK Treasury "estimate" of $35 per ton of CO2 doesn't seem extremely high.
Robert Rapier indicates that profit margins on revenue are about 10%. That suggest a total revenue of $190B. So, $51B in CO2 taxes would be about 28% of revenue, or the equivalent of $.70 tax on $2.50 gasoline.
That's enough to make people take notice, but not overwhelming. I can't see any reason why oil companies wouldn't just add it to their prices.
I'm told that oil has a long-run demand elasticity of about 30%, so in the long-run demand would be about 8% lower than it would have been otherwise.
You can't deduct a tax per unit of output and equate it to profits.
What would happen is BP and Shell's output would fall, but they would still make money (or adjust their cost base to make money).
As such, the environmental movement has in my view made a fundamental strategic blunder in trying for so long to prevent any development of such areas at all costs. This will only make the inevitable development of these areas more environmentally harmful, not less, since society will be less inclined to take environmental factors into account the more desperate it is for the oil.
.....
Better yet .. Just go to the neighborhood grocery
any buy any vegerable oil ( canola,sunflower or
peanut oil are best ) and dump it straight in the
tank of your diesel vehicle and go .. no mods
required at long as air temps are over 45F ..
Triff ..
Pure vegetable oil, though, is much too viscous (too 'thick') to run in a diesel engine. Your injectors will clog, etc. Diesels are modified to run on SVO (straight vegetable oil) by adding a heater before the engine to bring the temperature (and thus viscosity) up, and ensuring that fuel lines are thick enough for the flow. It's not difficult, and poses no danger (as diesel's flashpoint is so high), go look up details on a site specializing in that kind of thing.
The overbuilt fuel injecter pump on my 1982 Mercedes can "push
squashed bananas" according to one "greaser" (biodiesel).
I can pour, and know people that have, straight vegetable oil
into their tanks. Good down to 40F or so when the oil (depending upon oil type) begins to solidify. Mix some diesel in and keep going from there .
One person adds fractions of a gallon of gasoline to keep veggie oil liquid.
Best Hopes,
Alan
1 gallon reglar unleaded to
5 gallons SVO ( straight veg oil )
is the formula most folks are using
with no engine mods at all ..
Alan .. do you frequent mercedesshop.com ??
Triff ..
Interesting because Col. smith gives some credence to the notion that oil prices are being manipulated for the benefit of the bush administration. Interesting also as Smith links the impending war on Iran with Oil as well as concerns about Iran making an atomic bomb.
http://www.counterpunch.org/smith10132006.html
I am amazed at the number of folks I talk with from day-to-day who comment that gas prices will go up after the election. IMO, the idea that prices are being manipulated for political reasons is still quite widespread.
The intertwining of oil and atoms in Iraq is a conundrum, but the desire on the part of the Bush administration to attack Iran seems to be a part of a grossly misguided plan to remake the Middle East into our own little "Syriana." IMO that plan (New American Century, and all)was misguided and is going awry.
Bush's prosecution of the "Last Man standing" strategy is making things worse.
Paul Craig Roberts has written a couple of good articles lately as well, published online at Counterpunch and also by Information Clearing House.
"Bush's Willing Legislators" is one:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15294.htm
Another is "You're either With Us Or You're Dead: Can We Call It Genocide Now?"
Robert's theme seems to be thatthe USA under Bush follows fascistic and genocidal policies and that we are rather obviously engaged in "kill-off" or genocide in Iraq, if not elsewhere.
Our resource war is well under way, is it not?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8677389869548020370&q=Oil%2C+Smoke+and+Mirrors&hl=en
About 50 minutes in duration with many of the PO heavyweights appearing.
The last 15 minutes are quite good, with a bunch of different people shining their light on the issues. The Europeans, Michael Meacher and the German guy, what's his face, are surprisingly candid for people who have had top-level government positions. I can't see any of their American peers do the same.
if you have a event that is highly contentious and you know your view of the matter will not stand up to a rational scientific discourse of the event wither your a government or arm chair debtor. the best way to cut the debate short and make yourself look like the winner is to repeatedly and loudly label the opposing view point as a conspiracy theory. this does two things that i can see. first totally shifts the burden of proof to the person labeled a conspiracy theorist to the point that they not only have to prove their position but also provide more evidence then normal that your theory is wrong.
second by doing so you can make the audience turn off their critical thinking parts of their brain by playing your view to the common held beliefs at the time, basically appealing to their emotions then rational thought.
This of course doesn't mean all conspiracy theory's are true. It does add another advantage to the person calling someone else a conspiracy theorist. That is when you lump them all together like that you can easily dismiss his case as false by just pointing to a obviously false theory like 'we never landed on the moon' etc.
This is just one tactic mentioned and explained below.
I feel it is always good to review these from time to time.
They help wading thru the ton of information and deliberate disinformation out there.
Go to the link for good examples of each and how they are used by psyops and the pro's. You see the tactics used by MSM everyday very effectively.
Twenty-Five Rules of Disinformation
1. Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil
2. Become incredulous and indignant
3. Create rumor mongers
4. Use a straw man
5. Sidetrack opponents w name calling, ridicule
6. Hit and Run
7. Question motives
8. Invoke authority
9. Play Dumb
- Associate opponent charges with old news
- Establish and rely upon fall-back positions
- Enigmas have no solution
- Alice in Wonderland Logic
- Demand complete solutions
- Fit the facts to alternate conclusions
- Vanish evidence and witnesses
- Change the subject
- Emotionalize, Antagonize, and Goad
- Ignore facts, demand impossible proofs
- False evidence
- Call a Grand Jury, Special Prosecutor
- Manufacture a new truth
- Create bigger distractions
- Silence critics
- Vanish
Goto or just google25 rules for disinformation.
http://www.proparanoid.net/truth.htm
I didn't get around to watching it last weekend. Just finished watching now. Wow, those guys make a lot of sense. When I saw your post last weekend I thought it would just be Heinberg telling me stuff I've already heard him say.
Hmm, I seem to recall discussing this about a year ago, Leanan, and you were taking the side of the NIST report and "pancake theory" or something like it... so, you've come around? MIHOP now?
And finally, I have avoided responding to folks like Angry Chimp, BTW, since 1) the discussion seems to quickly dissolve into insults; 2) I don't really have any new hard evidence or analysis to bring to the discussion; and 3) as mentioned in "from the wilderness", a lot of the wilder speculations are probably part of a disinformation campaign. But the maker of this film seems to have rounded up some respectable folks, which gives just a glimmer of hope for some serious inquiry. Enough rambling already, back to lurking...
I was deeply disappointed that Heinberg has so little sense as to fall for this conspiracy theory bullshit. Every point he raised has been refuted time and time and time again. People who think the twin towers were brought down by explosives don't seem to be able to read or think stright. It would have taken an army of engineers weeks to plant enough explosives. They would have had to cut through walls and plant explosives on hundreds of steel beams. They would have had to know where the planes were going to hit because the buildings collapsed from the point of impact downward! Each floor pancaked downward onto the next floor exactly from the point of impact!
People who believe the buildings were brought down by explosives either cannot read, or cannot think, or have a damn screw loose.
It has all been explained many times over. Here is one of the best ones. But there are hundreds of others almost just as good.
It degrades the messages of peak oil if we all seem to be a bunch of conspiracy theory nitwits.
Ron Patterson
Also no reasonable explanation for how three tall buildings fall straight straight down all the way to the ground into their own footprint.
How anyone watches the several videos of WTC7 collapsing and has no suspicions is beyond me. Nearly all who say CONSPIRACY THEORY boogabooga!!!! have not bothered to watch.
And again it's just impossible in this universe to wire those buildings undetected and undisclosed.
Anyone see the movie Shaka Zulu? The point of the movie was the much-vaunted British Empire got their asses handed to them by, as they thought of it, a bunch of wogs with spears. This was flat-out unthinkable to the British at that time.
I think the facts of 9-11, that a small, determined bunch of Arabs, using intelligence, coordination, determination, and simple hand-to-hand fighting skills, launched the most devastating attack on the US Empire, ever.
Accepting the facts, accepting them at a gut level, I think, is impossible for almost all Amurrikans. To accept the facts, you have to accept that the complexity of our massive Empire makes us more vulnerable. You have to accept that more technology, more complexity, more layers, are not Good. This is very hard, really impossble, for people who've been taught all their lives that More Is Good.
I find it interesting that the terrorists didn't attack the Lincoln Memorial. They didn't attack the Amish, they didn't attack Colonial Williamsburg, they didn't attack Ma and Pa Kettle shopping at the Great Mall of America or an Albers grain mill. They didn't attack the Mayo Clinic. They didn't attack the American people.
They attacked a center of international banksterism, a center of international Empirism, and tried their best to attack The House That The ADL Built, the modern White House. That last attack was stopped by a bunch of decent American people on that plane.
But, they did not attack the American people, they attacked the Beast. And they did it with coordination, a few flight lessons, and glorified X-acto knives.
Pretending The Powers That Be are in control and only nice WASP people could engineer attacks like this is extremely delusional.
What it took was being so goddamned conveniant, enabling TPTB to use 9/11 to pursue motives that are so antithetical to our vision of presidential responsibilities and rational national interest, that they must have some kind of sinister ulterior motive, if we are to believe that there is any kind of leadership there at all.
A capable Yale graduate serving a hooded circle that meets at midnight, and is trying to implement a slow coup and burn the constitution for the good of... someone; Is preferable in some of our minds to a smirking chimpanzee given nuclear launch codes who can't admit they're wrong and gets off on seeing Abu Ghraib pix.
Myself, I think it's an unholy mix of the above.
gee now ... if only these nice folk were to use their "intelligence" to solve some of the minor problems in the world like Peak Oil and Global Warming instead of focusing all their energies and "determination" on fulfiling Hitler's "final solution" ... oh whata wonderful world it could be.
you used the ADL code word my hooded brother,
but oh brother how could you forget your PBA ?
and your DTAA ?
I am no expert on 9/11, but I believe the Popular Mechanics article has been already been scientifically discounted as a fluff piece. But I will wait till physicists have disproven this analysis:
http://worldtradecentertruth.com/volume/200609/DrJonesTalksatISUPhysicsDepartment.pdf
See frame 53!!! I would like to see a nationally recognized physicist write a paper on just how a huge steel beam could have been torn so precisely by non-explosive phenomena. Also notice all the steam and smoke coming up from all the molten metal in the WTC buildings' basements.
I have questions that I feel my government has not answered. Why won't they release all the thousands of photos and video tapes under their control?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
And I have yet to meet even one conspiracy theorists who wishes to try to explain why the buildings collapsed from the point of impact down! Everyone just ignores that little fact. The phenomenon is easily explained if you believed the intense weakened the beams and caused them to buckle under the enormous weight on them. All the upper stories came crashing down upon the floor directly below the point of impact. It crumbled, then the very next floor crumbled, then the next, then the next.
Look at the video Bob, that's exactly how it happened. That would have been impossible to do with explosives. How the army of engineers have known where the impact was going to be? But I know, all the conspiracy theorists will simply ignore the facts that prove their stupic theory impossible.
I repeat, anyone who is capable of logical thought can figure out what happened. There was no army of engineers. There was no grand conspiracy involving hundreds of people. It would have taken at least several hundred to pull off such a stunt. Not to mention the thousands of people, who worked daily in the towers and for some reason did not notice all those people cutting, stirring up dust and planting explosives.
Yeah Right!
Ron Patterson
If he could think he wouldn't have become a loon in the first place.
Thxs for responding. I prefer to keep it simple; I just want the apparent violations of physics answered. I want to know what caused the tons and tons of molten steel that was still being found much later than 9/11. Can you offer me a scientific answer? I do not have the skill to scientifically disprove the info found in that earlier 75 frame PDF by physicist Jones--do you?
Ron, what made all that molten steel? Please answer this single question to my satisfaction. Please don't shift into other topics.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
And Bob, since I have answered your question, how about my point that the buildings obviously collapsed from the point of impact downward? Why do conspiracy theorists alwayse ignore that point?
Ron Patterson
But the NIST report was weak, to paraphrase: "We know the fire couldn't have been hot enough to melt steel. But it could have gotten almost hot enough to soften it maybe... " followed by catastrophic, synchronous, total, near-free-fall collapse. Why didn't the buildings bend?
The fact remains that these 3 buildings are the only ones in the history of steel-frame buildings to totally collapse because of a fire.
Thxs for responding again, I appreciate it. But you haven't answered my questions to my satisfaction yet. Perhaps you are not able to, and perhaps I cannot sufficiently answer your questions either. But I will try my best with whatever resources I can muster. Such is life--we all have to understand our limitations. IMO, that is why I think re-opening 9/11 to an independent international investigation would be good for all concerned.
Thxs for the link to NIST, I hope to study it in more detail later. I see they clearly state that they did not investigate for explosives-- that is clearly a stupid thing -- If I was Bush, I would order them to go back and check everything for explosives. What better way to end the discussion once and for all? Better yet, if I was Bush, I would give Alex Jones and the other prominent 9/11 scholars full supoena powers and access to all Federal agencies and courts to fully investigate this to their hearts content. If our leaders have nothing to hide, they should welcome this investigation and fund it with $100 million. Then the country could be united, instead of confused as to 9/11.
This is the section where they state that they did not look for explosives:
-------------------------
12. Did the NIST investigation look for evidence of the WTC towers being brought down by controlled demolition? Was the steel tested for explosives or thermite residues? The combination of thermite and sulfur (called thermate) "slices through steel like a hot knife through butter."
NIST did not test for the residue of these compounds in the steel.
-------------------------
C'mon Ron. Dr Jones tested for these compounds--AND FOUND THESE RESIDUES--He invited NIST to go back and replicate his analysis, but they have not done so. See Frame 28 of his PDF This is an obvious oversight, possibly criminal, that needs a full investigation. The scientific method is fair to all when dealing with chemical analysis--NIST has nothing to fear.
Yes, there was tons of molten steel. Look at those pictures in the Jones PDF-- some were taken right after the collapse [the emergency vehicles' flashing lights were still flashing and steel bars were molten slag Frame 25.] I also recall seeing an overhead infared temp. scan that showed elevated thermo-signatures of huge heat piles in the WTC 1, 2,& 7 basements [sorry, don't have the source link]. Also, there is the interview of first responders having the soles of their shoes melting, and the pictures of molten slag ends being lifted by cranes weeks later [frame 27]. See this youtube link please. If you have more time watch this 4 part video linked here.
Now to the point of collapse question posed by you. Please study frames 70,71--collapse without explosives REMOVES ENERGY, collapse with explosives ADDS ENERGY-- that is why some steel beams were hurled some astounding distances to be impaled in buildings. Notice also the sideways rotation of that one WTC tower-- it should have continued toppling sideways into the street below-- but this was destroyed by explosives. Again, I am not an expert, but if it is obvious to a layman, then NIST needs to go back and clear up these inconsistencies so that it will pass expert scientific scrutiny by an international panel of recognized physicists and engineers. I appreciate your collegiality, and your expertise on Peakoil too.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Since 9/11, the Constitution of the Republic has been under attack and protections like habeus corpus and right to trial have been gutted. And now it's don't ask any questions, ignorance is bliss, war is peace, freedom's on the march, and fear is patriotic.
I don't think we will never know the complete truth of what happened on 9/11. It would raise too many questions and implicate too many people, some still in government like Rummy, and some dead like Reagan. Besides, any investigations would undoubtedly interfere with whatever they've got planned to get us into a war with Iran.
Not true. See what Dr Jones did with the dust sample from an apartment across from WTC. As I recall, using advanced equipment [beyond my simple understanding], he was able to identify every chemical by mass-spectroscopy. Sorry, I wish I could be more specific, but this is at my knowledge limits.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I agree.
World Trade Center (including WTC7) is one of those things where the possibilities are boundless and all sorts of theories on all sides of the debate are plausible.
On the other hand, Peak Oil, Global Warming and Population Explosion are things that are much more clearly bounded and for which it can be mathematically shown that the cornucopians are wrong.
We are having hard enough of a time convincing the shepparded masses that PO is for real. What chance could we have with WTC7 conspiracies? And even if we succeeded, then what? What do we do about it?
Was there a conspiracy?
Of course there was.
Those 19 gentlemen (assuming the number is correct) did not meet by sheer coincidence on the same day on the same planes and say, gee we got box cutters, what do we do now? The only question is how wide the conspiracy extends.
Was there sheer human stupidity?
Of course there was.
Security people were warning about unsecure control cabin doors for years. Our chimp-like brains cannot handle that kind of stuff, especially when it means reducing precious profits, our precious, our precious.
http://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/jones/rel491/handstext%20and%20figures.htm
Like I said, I don't participate in these threads because they degenerate so quickly. And it's just a bit off-topic for this forum. So here I am piping up one more time. But thermite is not actually an explosive as such... <sigh>
Too many loose screws.
If you're pissed at Heinberg you're really gonna hate me. I propose that not only was Dick Cheney behind 9/11 he was also behind the death of NY Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle!
http://www.peakoilstore.com/forum/index.php/topic,378.0.html
The picture of Cheney throwing out the ball is proof! (of what I'm not sure, but does that really matter?)
Not at all. Personally, I think Heinberg is a little nutty, and is not helping the cause with this 9/11 stuff.
Just because I post a link, doesn't mean I agree with it. I've posted links to Jerome Corsi's abiotic oil fantasies, too. It doesn't mean I believe them.
When I first posted on it, I was disgruntled about them linking 9/11 to peak oil, I did though see the tie in to it after I thought about it more.
What got me thinking was the other video I watched. That and being a Pyro myself I know a lot more about making things go BOOM! than most people do.
Three Towers reduced to dust and some larger pieces. That and remembering hearing about the still burning heap. Seeing It again some of it for the first time. Remember I have not watched TV in over 5 years. I heard most of the results on the radio. Only what I saw on the TV set up at work, and a few other specials later when at the houses of friends, were seen at the time. I used to watch and learn how to bring down buildings and how to make explosives, and things just started to click into place.
Yeah, all we have is some good free to veiw video footage and people talking about that day, and the health of people at ground zero being so messed up to look back on it all. Who knew we will likely never know. As I have mentioned recently I don't trust humans very much. This is one of those reasons why.
Not that many people had to be in the loop. A couple of dozen black ops guys, you know they are out there, you will never hear them talking, and a few people that had to know to get the funds ready for some things to happen. The rest of the people involved can be lied too, because they want to believe. Its simple really. I have written stories about it. I have thought out the reasons why something had to be done so I could make my readers almost think it was okay to have it happen this way. What scares me is that it is really so simple to fool most people and lie to the rest and pay off a few.
As far as the Peak Oil part. Most of the "in the know" people in the Gov't know we are at or real near the end of Oil as we know it. The companies are in it for the bottom line, the politicians are in it for the power it gives them. The rest of us better have our own plans moving right now, or be willing to take a few hard knocks in the years to come.
I am not going to change your mind, you have to change your own mind. I just know I changed mine recently and I am still trying to figure out where I want to go from here.
Korea.
UN Draft Resolution. 1718
Let's get translation.
Her last name is actually "Kah", and I have had some Peak Oil discussions with her. She is one of the people who convinced me that we are at least a few more years from peaking.
For God's sake, Robert. Get thyself to a bookstore. Read "The Road."
When I say we are going to burn everything. I'm not fucking kidding.
And learn to swim.
We were discussing conventional oil only. When I first talked to her, I was of the belief that the peak was upon us. But among other things, she pointed me to a lot of different projects that convinced me that we have a few more years.
Get help now.
This is serious.
Lay off the 'good stuff' for a bit.
Don't watch so much porn.
Read some good self-help books instead.
So did you think I was serious?
On the serious side. I have been to several 'pyschatric' wards on numerous ocassions. The patients never had any trouble admitting to their conditions. In fact I assumed it was part of the treatment. I have had far greater involvement than the above.
Those who walk around in many roles of great responsibility tend to have mental problems they would never admit to.
Now are you going to chide me for non-political correctedness?
I will say this, however. I get accused or labeled as having one of a basket of numerous mental conditions, substance-abuse problems, or some yet-to-be-named-generally-fucked-up political attitude on an almost daily basis. And it only happens here.
I'll stick with my history books, my laptop, and my HP 10B. You can keep the Prozac.
Actually, this has come up before, and I don't really know if I am at liberty to say much. She discussed in some detail specific internal projects that we are involved in around the world for several years going forward, and I saw some internal data on these fields. There were things that I was that persuaded me that 2005-2006 is not peak, but I also saw growth projections from India and China that will strain supply going forward. After several exchanges, I felt like peak could still occur by 2010, but we have a few years left.
It has been a recurring theme with Matt Simmons, which I heartily endorse, that there should be transparency in on-going and expected production numbers -- with conditions attached, of course, in both cases. In addition, the IOCs are responsible to their shareholders, so, at the very least, there should be transparency there. In the general case, the world's economies will depend on available supply -- this is the Peak Oil issue as we contemplate the production peak.
So, I am disappointed that you can not impart any new information to us based on proprietary data & expectations. On the other hand, the growing consensus regarding a peak around 2010 is not good news. Perhaps if there were more transparency, we could better convince the world of the urgency of the problem and take emergency steps to take actions to mitigate it.
Regarding data transparency, the NOCs are the worst offenders, not the IOCs. Saudi Aramco stands out but there are many others, especially among the OPEC nations. It is unlikely that many people will see this exchange of viewpoints between us -- but that does not minimize its importance.
-- Dave
Robert's got a job he doesn't want to lose. I don't blame him for not telling us what he knows.
Can you imagine the reaction from the wifey? "Honey I lost my job cause I blabbed on the net about the oil project in BFE"
Did I say that? No. I was convinced by an economist who provided proprietary information.
"Don't touch the mic, baby, don't come near it!"
We have landed on shale oil rock!
Gawd so we are all going to be cannibals then..........
The interesting thing isn't necessarily the article. It's the comments, and which comments got voted up or down. (dugg lets all users vote on stories and the resulting comments). Generally dugg users tend to have a liberal slant, but the overwhelming consensus on the article was very cornucopian.
The article itself missed a chance to point out how much food is dependent on crude oil, even so the vote and comments surprised me.
http://digg.com/world_news/How_Long_Can_the_World_Feed_Itself
This guy is an embarrassment.
On Cheating.
I just saw the face of Little Alex on a too-smart 16-year-old girl. She was advancing cheating like my parents' generation was pushing marijuana. I wanted to cry. I did cry.
For you who don't know Little Alex - Please rent A Clockwork Orange. Book works better for some people. It's a toss-up for me. "Enjoy the Bank of America 500!" Green Flag in 18 minutes. Jimmy Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon. Only NASCAR could pull off this bullshit. I'm more into Kubrick and Burgess.
The only thing in NASCAR I approve of is the call to sanity. 2 A-10's circled the stadium. We will win. You could see in a few of these guys' eyes that they understood they might die in the process. That's the only thing cheered me up. I wish I could remember them.
Formula 1 is just better.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
October 13, 2006
Funny response:
Interesting response:
I surveyed Mecklenburg prison back in the 70s, and it didn't seem that bad, but later there were serious riots. Having been to boarding school, though, I know that it only takes a few jerks to make that sort of life miserable.
What annoys me is that it's a major talking point in things like government 'scared straight' programs. I've seen footage of a twelve year old that stole a gameboy being brought to an interview with an inmate that the sheriff says 'likes cute little things like him.'
Personally, I wanted to read that one, but am not a subscriber, and have some sort of a minor allergy to reading the NYT even beyond the paywall. Always gives me the willies!
Want to drop a chunk of it into a post? Does it say anything surprising beyond the Headline?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have to say, buying gas at 2.25 this afternoon gave me a very forboding feeling of 'the calm before the storm', or maybe that Tsunami effect, where the water drops way down by the shore, as the 'Wave' is coming in..
I see Sarah Connor, looking down a long stretch of desert Highway, saying that there's a storm coming...
My you folks are prolific, do you sit and constantly refresh the page? I'm having trouble keeping up. I have a couple of hours a day when I can just browse as I see fit.
Maybe I need to get a job that gives me access to the internet. then I could not do my work and post more frequently, or at least read the answer and posts to yesterdays drumbeat.
Oil Ceo, I am a fan. Life is too damn short to always have your panties in a twist. Tip of the Jim Beam to you.
I don't actually work anymore, sold a bunch of businesses and now they send me checks each month. Some days the most important thing I do is pet the cat.
Disclaimer .... I am not sexist. But I do have a NYSW. Makes all the difference in the world! It validates AMPOD, if you are ready for PO and I mean ready, no mortgage, gardens,livestock <besides cats> backup power, and ways to generate new power. You get the girl. BTW, NYSW < New Young Sexy Wife > is how my 16 year old son introduced his new stepmother to his friends. In the 10 years we have been together it is probably one of the best family jokes.
Ok, so I answered my own question, now I know why I don't have the time to follow every thread. <Grin>
Don in Maine
http://mainelyenergy.com
you seem to be on top it all. Quick question> are oil prices going to go up? or down?
Same question for Natuarl Gas, Up or down? I am led to believe Natural Gas will go up, i know winter is around the corner, and historically it goes up, but storage is at an all time high. recently i have seen it go up. I hope it goes up more closer to 10 or more the better.
What are the charts telling YOU?
Mexico update: One person killed, one wounded in shootout in Oaxaca, from the Washington Post. My local newspaper is calling the US-Mex Border fence a symbol for failure. An upcoming gubernatorial election in Tabasco state may be crucial to help determine the future course of Mexico. From the LATimes:
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Macias was in no mood to talk politics as he waited for his overheated car to cool down off a road just outside town. But he quickly rattled off a wish list for the next governor: better salaries, more jobs, safer streets, more hospitals, new roads.
"The minimum wage here is 44 pesos a day [about $4], and food is expensive, electricity is expensive, toll roads are expensive," he said. "We all want help, but now people are afraid of the 'hard left.' We're not sure anymore if we're talking about Allende in Chile or some kind of totalitarian state."
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I feel sorry for this poor bastard--doesn't have a Peakoil clue: that all these dreams require a tremendous amounts of energy--and soon PEMEX and Cantarell will not be able to provide it. Especially if the US appropriates this energy for the proposed SuperNafta Corridor and the fifteen favored states of the Hirsch update.
From this link, SuperNafta was predicted long ago:
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Many may now consider this as a moot point since Mexico has entered into a trade agreement, but a Mexican conquest does not have to be accomplished through conventional warfare. Three years before NAFTA took effect, José Luis Calva of the National University of Mexico, predicted:
******
"If the governments and legislatures of the three countries agree to liberalize trade in agricultural goods, U.S. citizens should be prepared to receive some 15 million Mexican migrants. The Border Patrol will be unable to detain them, and even a new iron curtain, rising on the border at a moment when the Cold War has given way to economic warfare among nations, will buckle under the weight of millions of Mexicans thrown off their lands by free trade."
*****
The essence of the American empire is not territorial control but wresting of economic control from another country and dominating that nation economically. How long will this "peaceful conquest" of Mexico continue to go unnoticed?
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On the Global Warming and Human Overpopulation front, jaguars from Mexico are trying to migrate North too:
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Jaguars are the largest native American cat. They once roamed much of the Southwest, but when ranchers took cattle to the region in the last century, the jaguars were trapped and hunted to extinction in the U.S. The last known resident female was killed in 1963 near the Grand Canyon.
Using the same clandestine routes as drug smugglers, male jaguars are crossing into the United States from Mexico.
Four of the elusive cats have been photographed in the past decade -- one as recently as February -- in the formidable, rugged mountain ranges of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico.
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Impending Massacre in CHIAPAS Mexico?
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Chol de Tumbala, Oct 11--Tension is mounting in this community under siege, harassed by the constant sight and sound of low flying government planes and helicopters, and news of troops and paramilitaries gathering at the outskirts of town. The word is that the Mexican Army will invade any day now to forcibly remove the entire community.
While much attention has been focused on the struggle between poor communities and the state authorities in Oaxaca, the Mexican government continues to wage a low-intensity war against indigenous communities in the very fertile and resource-rich state of Chiapas.
This particular battle is taking place in the village of Chol de Tumbala , an indigenous community in Northern Chiapas. The village is part of the network of autonomous Zapatista municipalities in the state, this one named El Trabajo. The Chols are about to face eviction, for the second time, from the ancestral lands they have struggled over the past decade to get a legal claim to. The lands, which once were covered with dense jungle, and inhabited by the Chols, have over the past decades been deforested by vast cattle ranches, and their valuable timber sold on world markets.
On August 3, 2006, life in Chol de Tumbala was violently disrupted. At 10.30 in the morning, villagers were presented with an eviction notice from the Federal Judge of Playas de Catanza, who told them they had 10 minutes to vacate the land. At 11.30, vans carrying more than 260 people- among them municipal police, public security forces and people dressed as civilians, invaded the village and set about destroying it. They burned and bulldozed the houses, and destroyed clothes, kitchen utensils, dishes and fruit trees, before taking all the villagers´ property, including the husked maize which is the staple of their diet. Three villagers were imprisoned, forced to sign documents saying they had left the land voluntarily, and then later released. At this stage the government produced a list of prior owners of the land.
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Sounds very similar to Mugabe's "Taking out the Rubbish" projects in Zimbabwe. Makes one wonder when 'imminent domain' will be applied the same way here in the US.
Finally, from Bloomberg:
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Production from Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly, fell 4.6 percent in August from the same month in 2005, according to a report on the company's Web site. August was the third straight month in which output from Pemex has fallen below 3.3 million barrels a day.
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Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?