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DrumBeat: October 14, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 14, 2006 - 9:17am
Topic: Miscellaneous
From the New York Times: The Deathwatch for Cheap Oil
THOSE falling prices at the gasoline pump may only be temporary. Indeed, they could signal the start of an era in which, forecasters say, “the death of cheap, abundant crude might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.”“Peak oil is a reality,” says Willem Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser quoted by Bloomberg Markets magazine. He is just one of many who believe that global oil production is now at or near its peak, and the only place to go is down.
OPEC to cut oil output, no quota talks
LAGOS (Reuters) - OPEC's planned oil output cut is a temporary response to a "catastrophic" fall in prices and not intended as a permanent re-alignment of production quotas, the group's president said on Saturday...."It's just the catastrophic drop. The time to do something is about now because we don't know where the floor of this drop will end. It would be foolish to wait till it gets to $10 before we do anything because that would really kill the capacity initiatives," Daukoru said.
Economists: Oil price slide should accelerate
The current slide in crude oil prices could accelerate into a plunge to as low at $35 per barrel next year, ConocoPhillips' chief economist, Marianne Kau, told a group of economists in Anchorage Oct. 11.
Saudi Arabia, as per the survey, had to trim its output by 100,000 bpd. The Financial Times estimated the Saudi output cut to the order of 200,000 bpd over the last couple of months. A senior OPEC official however, was quoted as saying the Saudi contribution to the output cut would be around 300,000 barrels per day. Varying figures of Saudi contribution indeed!In the meantime, news poured in that Saudi Arabia kept crude supplies steady to its customers in Asia for November. However, Saudi Aramco told some of its biggest customers last Monday it would lower November supplies by about 5 percent from this month.
The US military oil consumption is generally regarded to be a small amount compared to the country’s gigantic consumption. Since oil is and will remain a strategic vital commodity, the Pentagon does not have a luxury of turning its back to oil.
Energy crisis is main concern for Dominican industrialists
Afghanistan: Gas, oil reserves ten times more than predicted: Survey
KABUL: Mines and Mineral Minister Engineer Mohammad Ibrahim Adil said the recent surveys revealed oil and gas reserves in Afghanistan were ten times more than predicated.
India Idles $4.4 Billion of Power Capacity on High Gas Prices
India has idled $4.4 billion of power capacity because utilities can't pay international prices for natural gas to fire the turbines that were built to overcome blackouts, a government official said.
Russian energy: Europe's pride, US's envy
Buried beneath the heaps of hot words on North Korea's nuclear test, the announcement in Moscow on Monday about the Shtokman natural-gas deposit off Russia's Arctic coast almost escaped attention, despite its comparable lethal fallout in world politics.
Raymond J. Learsy: Energy Independence, Our Oil Shale Deposits, Making OPEC Obsolete
Study finds oilsands could mitigate climate change
"I think what's surprising about (the report) is the emphasis that carbon capture and storage has on the best scenario case and how Western Canada can actually help with climate change through carbon capture and storage," said Christine Schuh, Canadian climate change leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Former President Bill Clinton strongly supports California Proposition 87 - video.
Current President Bush Discusses Energy at Renewable Energy Conference. He thinks plug-in hybrids, cellulosic ethanol and hydrogen are the answers.
[Update by Leanan on 10/14/06 at 9:35 AM EDT]
Peak Oil Naysayers Partying On for Growth
The top dogs and their less successful defenders hide behind the religion of economic growth, puffing up their chests to speak so assuredly that there can be no long-term shortage of oil or energy. They adhere to neoclassical economics that claims resources are available according to price/supply/technological factors, not based on natural limits.The rest of the religious litany for growth relies on the unproven carrot "a rising tide lifts all boats." However, trickle down was already discredited even before Reaganism. The wasted '80s should have taught us all we needed to know. But no. Despite the worsening of key indicators as real income, energy security and environmental quality, the same people and system remain on top, screaming for more growth. Thrift and conserving are discouraged, and record indebtedness encouraged, as economists cheer on consumer buying-power as the driver behind the global economy.
We'll start with some old concepts.
I notice this one is my most popular. It's like Stuart's best one. Mine's not as good. It's never developed the following. I miss Stuart. This one was based on his work.
It's not updated. It's too much work right now. But we can fill in the gaps from what I'm about to show you.
First we're going to move back to one that was my first and which I still follow, but have learned is not a popular format.
Let me warn you this one is crude. But look at it twice. The crudeness is in the presentation - not the data.
It's a good reminder why we need to update things.
Now for a Zoomed out View. This is how oil moves.
So here's the new stuff. I need to add events, but I also need to keep the font large enough so it works visually. Who's going to write history.
Price Zoom Out 2
Price Zoom In 1
The smooth lines are always averages. Click on the image itself if you want a bigger one.
In this case I used a 13-month centered moving average. Which was a new idea to me at the time. I prefer trailing moving averages(I refer to them as SMA or simply moving average in some of my charts). Somehow Stuart convinced me. I use a hybrid now, undectectable to the human eye.
That's my last pure production. I can say that the updated version with two more months' data looks virtually the same.
The plateau continues. I'll say this only at this point. I've got another 18 months before I'll decide whether anything has been dropping. Or rising. Six months ago I would have told you the same thing. Maybe in another 6 months I'll make a decision.
This is LOL funny-- you gotta see it
http://www.endofworld.net/
There are no answers to these questions.
The references you see are theories put forth by certain luminaries in the oil world.
Remember back when certain people told others they could
turn lead to gold
or that the earth was round
or that witches don't float
Which one of those three is right and how the fuck would you know?
See what I mean?
Back then turning lead to gold was where the focus was. I'm pretty sure it's the same today.
I'm pretty sure nobody has a really clear motive to prove that witches either sink or swim to save your life.
Why's that. Witches and You don't count. It's all about the...
- Lead into gold - a few billion well spent tax dollars shows that turning lead into gold is not a money making venture, and that it is surprisingly more esoteric than any alchemist ever imagined. And if it hadn't been for that alchemy fantasy, I doubt anyone would ever have bothered doing it.
- Earth is round - you just take a well in Alexandria and one in Cyrene, wait for noon, do some geometry. Of course, you do actually have to be mathematically literate.
- Everyone knows by the time you find a witch, it is time to have a bit of righteous public entertainment ending in the just punishment of the evildoers. Historically, this has been a very reliable form of entertainment among people - though it only had a minor run in North America (sort of like how Americans just don't get soccer).
What is interesting is just how often people who could do 1. or 2. were considered wizards/witches.I do think that there is a level beyond money - for example, staying warm in the winter isn't really about money, it is about survival. It is just that many people in North America can't imagine what it is like to live without any fuel in the wintertime, regardless of how much money they have. Check out the mass migrations of Germans from East to West in the winter of 1944-45 to escape the Russians to get a feel for what I mean - even if you were rich/powerful enough to have a vehicle, and fuel, it just meant the strafing fighters found you worth their time. For most Europeans who were alive before 1940 or so, such a concern with heat and survival is not theoretical, along with the awareness of how unimportant money is compared to staying alive.
I think part of the general confusion here is the difference between money as a source/representation of human motivation/activity, and the fact that reality is not the same as human motivation/activity. Just like turning lead into gold, it is conceivable that the Texas oil fields could go back to producing what they did in the early 1970s. It is just up until now, no one has figured out a way to replace what has been burnt. This can be thought of as finite (really huge to beyond human comprehension) and conceivable not being equal to infinite (never ending). After all, a few billion atoms of gold from lead sounds huge - until you do the math.
Well said, Well said. Sadly, come crunch time, I must agree with your statement that the ignorant will probably do in the witches/wizards that offer the best chance for them to be lead out of the darkness. Such is life-- that is why Socrates gladly drank the hemlock. Can we possibly be better philosophers when our time has come?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Lynch is strong. Pickens is peak oils' worst enemy. He just doesn't understand. Everybody forgot about Economides. And he outflanked everybody.
The great thing about oil smacking low is that it is knocking over false prophets like ... like ... like Hewlett Packard CEO's.
To think I lamented this storm a month ago. We may need another job. Kid, we're lucky we're still alive. Okay. Okay? That's all you've got to say? Okay. Okay.
Yes, that is the big question. Generally speaking, if prices are high we would say it is supply limited. If prices are low then that points to a failure of demand. Despite the recent fallback, prices even today can still be considered high. If we truly had an oil glut then producers would be competing with each other to cut prices, and we'd see historically low prices of $10-20 per barrel. Since we're not, that points to supply limitations.
Having said that, we should keep in mind that market participants look to the future as well as the present in making their decisions. Producers may choose to produce below the maximum if they believe that we will have shortages in the future and their oil will be worth even more then. A production cutback in the face of high prices is therefore not necessarily evidence that we are at peak now, but it suggests that producers see a peak as a realistic possibility within their planning horizon, and that is affecting their decisions today.
http://mainelyenergy.com/
An addendum. On the one with the Lebanon conflict. The shooting started on July 12th. That is hugely important. It is a terrible omission. I was aware of the problem when I went to print. That's why I called it a Beta. There's one more Zoom out I have to do on this but I haven't decided on a time frame.
It's a long way to the top if you wanna Rock 'n' Roll.
Is it really you Jack Black? Loved your movie (School of Rock).
I Love Jack Black. Funny as hell. But I can't tell any of his movies apart. Is that me? Or does this guy need to find a new routine if he wants to stay in Hollywood.
In an attempt to retain my sanity. It's all about Borat. Check my comments on TOD for a reference to Borat. If Leanan or Super-G hasn't deleted it I mentioned Borat before the movie existed. So that's either premonition or I'm delusional.
"There is no God. And we are all his prophets."
For anybody that wants to dis me. For anybody thinks I'm full of shit - I just saw an ad. They were trying to convince people that they didn't have to eat less to lose weight. You've seen it. Watch it again. Then Try to say I'm fucking with you. Yeah right fella.
I'm trying to watch ABC Evening news. They got college football on. OK, tis the season. When I hear college Football the only thing I know is Nebraska. So I was brainwashed. Oh, scratch that...Thank God for NBC.
Check the Cat Power regimen. She's got it going where she can be crazy and keep it under control. Sort of.
I didn't miss LSD. You're thinking of someone else.
2 more things. Try younger women. I don't believe the pedophile routine you did the other night. Young women (not girls) smell and feel clean, not messy. Though you may feel dirty. (You dirty old man.) I've encountered only one woman of a certain age who could be unmessy. (How bad is messy?)
And Seroquel. Know when.
Great video, down the boulevard in Melbourne.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=H1iR2Wi3u5o
I was actually one of the back-up bag-pipers on the flat-bed. A lot of people are unaware of that. Did you catch the black helicopter circling above right towards the end?
You are correct. Those "reporter persons" got their wires inverted ... as usual.
- The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
- Envisioning Information
- Visual Explanations
- Beautiful Evidence
They're all in print, available though your favorite online bookseller or from Tufte's own publishing company, Graphics Press http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/Tufte has cornered the niche (?) of practical information design in the social and political sciences, and to a lesser extent the physical sciences. He used to be prof. of Social Science at Yale, but retired some years ago and now makes a living by publishing and consulting. You should try to catch his 1-day seminar if you live in the US and he comes to your city.
In recent years he has started to come across as being a bit intellectually arrogant. I think he is increasingly frustrated by the world's refusal to embrace his ideas, but his books are still worth reading. If you are going to buy just one, it should be "Visual Display", which is now in its second edition. His critiques of NASA's root-cause analyses of the two Shuttle accidents are available as pamphlets from Graphics Press (also in the books), and are a good introduction to his way of thinking.
Oil CEO - if you feel your graphs could be improved (and they're not perfect, though they could be a lot worse), read "Visual Display" for ideas. My own advice would be to lose the color-gradient background - what information does it convey? And find a way to make the dates on the axes a bit less random. I realize you're probably constrained by time, convenience and cost to use Excel, but even the bastard offspring of Micros~1 can produce good results with a bit of coaxing.
Your last paragraph is the best because that is where you tear into me. I'm aware of these things. I wanted feedback. The color gradient thing is problematic for me. I need it to put the focus of my own eye on the graph. A white background distracts me. That's a personal problem. I realize that. The Dates are horrible. I've tried so many hacks around what I'm given, I can't tell you. Paris is gonna throw me some bucks for a new laptop soon. Maybe she'll send me Boone Pickens' rejects with the killer chart skills. God knows they did him right.
I tought myself C++. Why am I afraid of Excel? Yeah, you're coaxing me. Cuz I'm getting to old for this shit. But the truth always stays the same. If you wannit done right, you gotta do it yourself. Thanks again for slapping me in the head. The plucky underdog. rarely posts. always hits hard. always a friend.