DrumBeat: November 17, 2006
Posted by threadbot on November 17, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Global oil production – "Rate of Conversion" is the key
We should all be aware that the "rate of conversion" might be reaching a peak irrespective of demand, price, netback, crude quality and the speculated global endowment of resources. This "peak" has already occurred in many oil and gas productive basins which have had an historical transparency in term of access, ready markets, favorable fiscal terms, security and perceived political risk.
Oil tumbles to lowest level since June 2005
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil briefly dropped below $55 Friday to its lowest level since mid-2005 amid fund selling across commodity markets on worries of an economic slowdown in the world's largest energy consumer, the United States.High U.S. oil inventories heading into winter, and selling pressure ahead of the expiry of the front-month U.S. crude contract at the close of trading Friday, fueled the selling.
Russia Vows to Develop New Markets, Deepen Energy Security
Russia flexed its economic muscles on the eve of a meeting of Pacific Rim leaders in Hanoi Friday, pledging to seek out new export markets in the region and use its vast reserves of oil and gas to contribute to the region's energy security.
Peak Oil is Simple: Gristmill gives TOD props, but points out that, "Our choice is far closer to binary than most oil geeks are willing to acknowledge."
Now, it is the nature of engineers, data nerds, lefty wonks, and other too-smart-for-their-own-good types to have a somewhat naive view of politics. They tend to think that the main determinant of political action is the established empirical facts. Establish the facts; policy ensues. That's why winning the empirical argument is so overwhelmingly important for them.Of course, it's not so. The range of possibilities in the political world -- the real world, not the world of policy wonkery -- is, at least most of the time, much narrower than the range of possible oil production scenarios.
Byron W. King: Association for the Debunking of Peak Oil, part 2
But if you do not want to send your bucks to CERA, I will provide a summary of some of CERA’s previous statements on Peak Oil. This is purely in the spirit of allowing CERA to have a forum that includes its nonpaying clients. I will offer here some other details on what CERA has said about Peak Oil in the past.
Attempt to discredit theory falls short of making its case
The CERA study uses extremely optimistic projections of conventional oil still to be discovered. It assumes technological leaps will occur to develop unconventional petroleum sources. It does project that a peak will occur, but not for another 25 years or so.
Abiotic oil lives on... Oil: Off the Deep End - "Running out of oil might be a less rational fear than running out of air to burn it with."
Richard Heinberg: Fifty Million Farmers
There was a time not so long ago when famine was an expected, if not accepted, part of life. Until the 19th century—whether in China, France, India or Britain—food came almost entirely from local sources and harvests were variable. In good years, there was plenty—enough for seasonal feasts and for storage in anticipation of winter and hard times to come; in bad years, starvation cut down the poorest and the weakest—the very young, the old, and the sickly. Sometimes bad years followed one upon another, reducing the size of the population by several percent. This was the normal condition of life in pre-industrial societies, and it persisted for thousands of years.
Congress seen passing price-gouging law
The head of the Federal Trade Commission predicted Thursday that Congress would pass a gasoline price-gouging law despite her warnings that the country doesn't need one and it might cause fuel shortages.
Ford expects to keep doubling China sales
Emergence of a gas OPEC remains unlikely despite NATO warning
Warnings from NATO that Russia is seeking to create a gas version of OPEC seem to be an overblown fear. While Russia has the necessary large resources base to exert some influence over price through production programming, market dynamics and the practicalities involved make this a highly unlikely development.
BP next in line as Kremlin targets Western oil companies
MOSCOW - BP PLC, which entered the Russian energy market three years ago with the blessing of President Vladimir Putin, has become the latest foreign producer to feel the icy power of the Kremlin as the state increases its control of oil resources.The company's joint venture TNK-BP, Russia's third-biggest oil and gas producer, has been hit with back-tax bills, threatened with license annulments and last week prosecutors opened a criminal investigation against a TNK-BP executive.
Lukoil to Spend $27 Billion to Boost Overseas Output
Lukoil, based in Moscow, expects to raise non-Russian production of crude and natural gas to the equivalent of 800,000 barrels a day by 2017, Lukoil Overseas Holding Ltd. chief Andrei Kuzyaev said at an energy conference in Moscow today. The company pumps about 110,000 barrels a day outside Russia now.
Annan Faults 'Frightening Lack of Leadership' for Global Warming
Secretary General Kofi Annan on Wednesday put the blame for global warming on “a frightening lack of leadership,” saying the poorest people in the world, who do not even create much pollution, bear the brunt of rising temperatures.
Gore: The truth? 'Nuclear is not the answer'
British Energy Ousts Head of Nuclear Operations; Output Reduced
British Energy Group Plc, the country's largest power producer, ousted the head of nuclear operations and said production will miss forecasts by at least 8.2 percent a year because of faulty reactors.
Israel - Ministry won’t meet alternative energy target: Actual production will be 0.14% - 15 Megawatt, instead of the 2007 target of 214 MW.
Biofuel plant to boost UK wheat prices
Senate backs India nuclear deal
The US Senate has overwhelmingly voted to pass a controversial deal to share civilian nuclear technology with India.
Newfoundland projects $39.8-million deficit after Terra Nova shutdown
Newfoundland is running a $39.8-million deficit, Finance Minister Loyola Sullivan said Thursday, presenting a contrast from the rosier picture the government portrayed in its spring budget. Not even peak oil prices this summer could have offset the drop, largely driven by Terra Nova's delay in resuming production, Sullivan said.
Alternative Energy, Part 2: The Perfect Storm
The overall energy supply and demand balance has fundamentally changed, Jeff Lipton, managing director of investment banking at Jefferies & Co., told TechNewsWorld. "The demand picture is dramatically different, with countries like China and India now becoming significant consumers of energy and commodities -- and their growth is only going to continue."
From Discover magazine: Can Coal Come Clean? How to survive the return of the world's dirtiest fossil fuel

"Solving the climate problem altogether—completely rebuilding our energy infrastructure—is something like a $400-billion-a-year program. The U.S. share is maybe $100 billion. That's not that much compared with defense outlays. It's small compared to Iraq. If we really got scared, we could do a lot in a hurry."



Thanks
Nice work, btw.
@ nth. If you're reading, PO & GW are not "beliefs, because they are theories" . The broader scientific community has already ambraced these events as FACTS.
I ran out on you the other day, but not your little monkey. I never abandon four year olds. And I never will.
Trust me. I need some down time. I try to hide, but it is getting harder. I need to sleep. My friends are good. But I run so much. It is killimg me. I am not long for this world.
Obviously when I'm dead I can't prove it. I can taste the salt im my tears.Count it between what CERA says and what Dave says. Running average. If I'm alive I'll talk. Nobody knows. They just guess. You know that.
The safest place for Paulus P junior and all his sisters is an island called Mykonos. Paris Hilton and all the smartest people in the world know that. That's why they all congrregate there.
Once again, take your time.
Please let me know as I don't have a clue to the answer.
Russia is beginning to softly co-ordinate its export policy with OPEC.
An official SPR in Russia doesn't exist yet. But you have to take into account the fact that a pipe has a volume. The existing oil pipeline system is the best SPR.
A 1000 km pipe with 1m diameter has a volume of around 5 million barrels. Some abandoned parts of the system (for example the line to Lithuania) could be used to store excessive supply. So, OAO Transneft can fill in its system with marginal oil for a long time. This is so called technical oil.
By reducing the export of oil to the `near abroad' - Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine - Russia achieves two goals simultaneously: to exert political and economic pressure onto not-fully-loyal countries and to synchronize the export policy with OPEC.
Let me speculate a little bit. Since I am from Eastern Europe, I've seen this many times and I think I know what it is. 1.5 mln bpd missing? What's the problem really? These countries are full of people officially earning $200/month who are driving BMW's to their cottages. Most likely this oil is simply stolen or unaccounted one way or the other - somewhere down the pipeline some people are earning good money to shut their eyes for the oil which is being sent with overnight trains to China or Kazahstan (to be reexported within some very clever and tricky schema) or, in a refined form is simply drained down who knows where by who knows whom. Now if you think that such a yelling discrepancy should be ringing someones bells you would be wrong again. Even those that are not corrupted at the upper level know everything about it and also know they can not possibly fight it.
I like your hypothesis. It feels good. It's appealing in many ways. It fits much of what I know about how the world works.
Problem is without a serious prosecutorial investigation it's only a hunch. No way to verify. We may never know.
But I do trust the Oily One to keep on top of this.
I don't even have any hunches. I just don't know. I presented data that was freely available. According to what I saw, there are no "missing barrels" - I mean within a certain believable margin of error. I just presented what I thought was a missing "buffer of credibility." Clearly certain people never looked at the actual data. Those certain people will have to come forth and clear their names. Then they will have have to clear mine. I realize it will be painful. I can guarrantee the alternatives will be worse.
I can pipe in that when you've got a big enough chart it is just not going to justify and balance in all directions and little errors will echo.
This looks like it could be bigger than that but...
The big commodities in world trade are guns, drugs, oil, and coffee. I don't even think the coffee numbers are always believable.
But stealing is a constant. It can't alter the volume of export, at least not in millions of barrels.
Yes, Sorry, GZ. I didn't attribute anything, did I? Everything is BP numbers. From The last two - 2006(2005) and 2005(2004). I just went through it and verified.
The 4% was something I added. I looked at consumption the last four years (on right) and saw an average and a high (2.5%) and threw in 4% as a gift. More on that later. Should we call that liberal?
I've developed a preference for yearly historical numbers vs. revision-prone monthly's - although I do dabble a bit.
I try hard not to fall into the C+C trap. In the end I don't think it matters much.
This was not something I threw together. I worked on this for a long time. I'm going back to my history books, my family, and my DVDs. I particulary like "The Prize" and this British copy of 24 - MI5.
I've deliberately not commented on what this means for several reasons. Most of which I will probably never elaborate on. But for now suffice it to say I am glad you read this. Ask and you shall receive.
[a minor point: the TOD image linked to your blog and not the .png file]
My blog is a mess. I crucified myself on the post-and-see-your-right column stuff go down bottom - cross yesterday. I can fix it. I'm just too lazy. I wanna read some more TOD instead.
The "other charts" link on right hits my Flickr account. I'll update that when I think of it next. Thanks for reading.
I guess they call this blog-whoring. But I don't do ads. In my private life I have multi-millionaires asking my advice on promoting their websites. I never tell them. I think it is bad enough somebody gave them Blackberries and Nuclear weapons. WTF? I gotta save the world myself?
I'm not sure what will emerge when I'm done digesting.
[it's not you, dummy]
As a huge fan of popular culture, I cannot help but bring up one of my favorite TV shows. True it is not really TV, or a show. It's HBO, and high drama.
Eschylus would be proud. 'Deadwood' is truly entertaining. It is really fucking good. And when I say fucking good. I mean fucking good.
I can't decide which is better. Deadwood or MI5. These writers. They have my applause.
Back to the ambiguous part. I would hope you would apply the same logic to Westexas' oft repeated numbers. Intriguing is a good word.
Thanksgiving is my favorite day. Christmas used to be. My birthday before that. Thanksgiving stands the test of time. And I can actually change it. My family and my friends. We are hardcore.
(next time I take 2nd look before commenting - promise!)
What you call "Missing barrels" corresponds neatly with "Product exports" which you have just 2 cells below. The "missing barrels" are simply the input for the refinaries for products that go for exports.
Take a third look. I'm not making this up.
The barrels are product not oil. But they are the same thing, yet nobody counts them that way.
The only question left - if you buy my (BP's)numbers - is why.
WHY?
I don't really see where are you headed with those little games you're playing. If your goal was to test the critical thinking of the people here, I suggest you think again. This forum is already pretty much established and basically we (or at least I) assume that if somebody is posting something it does not contain little traps, tests or puzzles.
Now if you are willing to get down to us the mortals, and express in a normal and understandable language the problem that is bothering there is a slight chance that you may also find the correct answers. Some people call it discussion. Otherwise it is Garbage In Garbage Out you know.
Production=Internal consumption + Crude export + Product export.
I read some of your Thats it I'm out piece - so was that written by you or Roger? At any rate at 4500 words - a bit long to read in a oner- so I copied it for future reference.
Now returning to your table here. Would you like to explain what you see going on. Bringing product exports into the equation - obviously crucial - are you saying these have been overlooked before?
And whats all the stuff with BP? And 1347, 5374 5093 1702 etc appearing all over the table. Sorry, I may be in moron mode here - some explanation please.
And you were asking questions about the very near future - not sure if those were dirceted at me or not. I have three comments about our near future:
- Our politicians will say anything on climate and energy to get re-elected.
- Our lives will probably continue as before for a fair while yet - whilst poor folks and poor countries all over the world plunge into energy poverty
- Our markets and energy supplies are IMO metastable - may be knocked over, with huge consequences, by the actions of one person?
Here's a great picture from a presentation by Chris Smith - contrails above the N Sea coalsecing to form high altitude cirus clouds that force global warming.http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=1106
Now, all our politiciancs support expansion of all airports in the UK - even the guys who claim to be green - all in the interest of future HC based expansion of our economy. I've tried to convey reasonable arguments to these people - no luck so far though.
I spent about 6 hours yesterday tryig to reconcile BP UK oil production figures with those quoted by the DTI. I had just spent the whole of the previous day making a stacked oil production chart for UK off shore fields and was somewhat dismayed to see that the 1999 total was 2.5 million bpd and not 2.9 - which we all know was the peak.
Some of this is due to on-shore production. The DTI were really helpful in getting to the bottom of this. Apparently there are thousands of tons of liquids arrive onshore every day from the gas pipelines and these are not attibutable to any field. These are recorded in the DTI's Brown Book but not on their web site.
Also, the DTI quote figures in M3 and tonnes - I always use the M3 on the basis that most of us here work in bbls - but of course in working with liquids mass is a much safer footing. Converting from mass to volume requires knowledge of density - and this of course varies enormously depending on the liquid and temperature. Using the DTI tonnes figures, and data from the Brown Book you get to the exact figures quoted by BP for oil in 1999. It is much more difficult to reconcile the figures using the M3 data.
So what am I saying? We have to be wary of getting too bogged down in detail when it is the big picture that counts.
What is the relative strength of each of these effects?
As far as viewing while flying it is amazing how many of the jet trails...I mean roads of the sky, are everywhere.