Updating a couple of graphs or more
Posted by Heading Out on November 27, 2006 - 12:19am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cera, gasoline stocks, imports, matthew simmons, peak oil, production [list all tags]
In large measure much of the information that we talk about on this site is not widely known. To most people none of those who have modeled the coming of peak oil are known, and they would not know Cambridge Energy Research Associates from the Central Electric Railfan's Association . Every so often we have looked to see how popular the terms "Peak Oil" , "Saudi Oil" and "OPEC" are on the internet, starting in April 2005. Using blogpulse as the tool I thought it germane to see if there had been any change in the popularity of the phrases. Prof G changed the plots to compare "Peak Oil" with "Global Warming" and "Climate Change" in July 2005 and found that interest in "Peak Oil" was going down. We went back for another look in February this year and the Peak Oil line was again just a thin line at the bottom. But by April there was another upswing in popularity. So how are we currently doing? (Answers below the fold).
With Peak Oil alone, one can see that the topic continues to lose popular interest,
However if we were to look at Russia and the equivalent plot to the Saudi and OPEC one, we find:
Which shows, if one looks at the scales on the sides, that there is even less interest in those topics, despite the tightening grip that Moscow (and Gazprom in particular) is starting to establish on European fossil fuel supplies.
Given the more general nature of the job, it's not therefore unsurprising that my current boss is not that familiar with the topic. And so one of my first thoughts was to reprise, in a short report, some of the information that has flowed across the site recently. But in the land where a two-page memo is too long, conveying a sense of concern without being overly dramatic is not particularly simple.
And then, of course, there is the question itself! Are we really heading into the maelstrom, or will it be a more gentle transition that most will survive. Stuart will tell you that I tend to be a bit pessimistic on this one. And I wasn't much convinced toward changing my mind after listening to Matt Simmons as he excoriated the CERA Report on Financial Sense Online (thanks for the tip David Shvartsman). But one thing he said towards the end of the talk is worth casting out as an object of discussion. He anticipates that, much as the American Space Race was initiated following Sputnik, so there is some event coming that will trigger a major energy effort in the U.S. He did not know what it would be, and so I throw this out for nominations.
And since this is a post with some updating of graphs on it, let me close with the current EIA gasoline plots since the first of these is giving Matt some concern. Here are the plots, starting with the current state of gas stocks
followed by the current level of production.
the current levels of imports
and the current state of gasoline demand in the U.S.
I hope that you all had a Happy Thanksgiving, as we did, though I was surprised at how empty the airports were, at the time we had, perforce, to visit them.
I'm not surprised at emptier airports in America's wonderful economy, the same way I am not surprised that gasoline demand hasn't gone down at all. After the last two decades of the American Dream reaching its full flowering, there is no way for Americans to use less gasoline in their daily lives, without their lives turning into a nightmare in their eyes. Of course, using gasoline is already a nightmare, just one they haven't woken up to - regardless of which alarm clock is going off.
This is why I also think the hope of a major energy effort is simply a hope - the time to have started was 25 years ago, and at some point, it is just too late.
This is specifically meant for America and its society - I do not agree that peak oil means the end of industrial civilization, or the collapse of society, or whatever nightmares people see. It is just that at some point, a society reachs a breaking point from which it can't recover. The Soviet Union comes to mind as a fairly fresh example - the abandoned infrastructure of the Soviet Union are strewn throughout a continent, while the Russian population shrinks as public health systems fall apart and various vices (vodka, AIDS, crime) grow without much effective social control.
"I'm not surprised at emptier airports in America's wonderful economy, the same way I am not surprised that gasoline demand hasn't gone down at all"
That may be partially explained by the simple fact that no one wants to take the airlines crap anymore. Let's be honest, airlines were insufferable before 9/11 and have always treated humans like cattle in a box car. Since 9/11, they have the added excuse that "it's for security" and have become almost completely unusable. I will never fly if I can drive, until the gas or Diesel in my case, is gone.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
What is interesting is that instead of flying, Americans drive - since in America, with the semi-exception of the Northeast Corridor, it is either fly or drive. There is no other infrastructure, and quite honestly, I can't imagine it being constructed within the current framework of American culture (that which has existed since ca. 1950). A workable rail system requires things like cities with centers, and people who feel that the disadvantages of using rail are vastly outweighed by the disadvantages of having a car. With the very notable exception of NYC (and from reports read on the Internet, New Orleans), and the possible exception of a few older cities like Boston or SF, this does not describe America and the attitudes shared by most of its citizens.
This doesn't mean that in 20 years America won't be using rail - it does mean the odds are, the steel for the new system will come from a Russian company, Evraz (which intriguingly, will become the world's largest manufacturer of rail steel, with a primary market in Russia, and exports to Asia) after it takes over Oregon Steel.
I could find a lot of information in German, but the English information was fairly meager. And this is yet another indication of what I keep harping on - America is so absolutely fixed in how it views the world that the idea that a Russian company (or Canadian or German - you have to buy your locomotives and rail infrastructure from someone, after all - America certainly doesn't manufacture much of it anymore) will be profiting from any expansion of American railroads is pretty much ignored, while the importance of GM or Ford in producing SUVs (which have zero role in a world market) is considered paramount to America's future.
This time, the music is from Elvis -
'We're caught in a trap
I can't walk out
Because I love you too much baby
Why can't you see
What you're doing to me'
Well, maybe Elvis isn't the best fit, but still...
expat,
Good points all, as for the the choice of music, my pet in this area would probably closer to The Steve Miller Band
"Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you..."
(no reference to "you" present company, of course :-)
What is fascinating to me is how many folks will drive hundreds of miles to....get to ride a train! The tourist draw of an old railroad is well known.
Here in my hometown, as late as the 1950's, you could take a train from the country into Louisville, and then to anwhere in the country. That has since been lost, and the older folks pine for the easy and cheap transportation.
In the last few years, even the Greyhound buse lines have disappeared. Now, If you want to get out of my hometown, you either walk or drive.
Can't we talk some of these billionaire "peakers" (Simmons, Rainwater or Pickens) into some investment in rail? Apparently, gas is going to have to get a good deal more expensive before it even looks profitable to the peak believers.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Saw a report once, where Cubans ride remodelled semis.. A bit third worldish, but hey, why not??
Does anyone know how many times Greyhound went bankrupt?
crazy on a ship of fools ...............
turn this boat around..............
His tune was The Joker.
John Kerry already reserved that Miller Song for his "Stuck in Iraq" (with you) line.
The Elvis song is a good one.
Just change "why can't you see.. " to "why can't I see what you're doing to me"
- the whole nation has a well-developed intercity bus system. This has the additional advantage that the tickets are cheaper than train tickets (where trains exist) and that they sometimes go more direct (e.g. New York City directly to King of Prussia, PA instead of going through Philadelphia)
- anybody is free to form car pools. Certain minorities already do (I heard about Hispanics). Four-person car pools would reduce commuting gasoline consumption by about two thirds (allowing for pick-up detours)
BTW, similar arguments can be made about the impact of oil shortages on home heating and airconditioning, and on food consumption - there is an enormous slack and waste in the American energy system that can absorb a great decline in demand. It would not be pretty though...I don't think that's really true, but even if it were, the capacity of the existing system is miniscule. If it can currently carry 1% of travelers, what would happen if 5% tried to use it? 25%?
Cheap van-based public transport could be set up quite quickly, technically speaking, but the current regulatory conditons prohibit that via multiple requirements that a cheap startup cannot meet. E.g., insurance, commercial driver license, handicap access, exclusive licenses for access to passengers given to certain taxis in some areas, laws against multiple paying parties in same taxi-like vehicle, etc etc. Perhaps when gasoline hits $8/gallon a blind eye will be turned on all that.
"...but the current regulatory conditons prohibit that "
You bring up a good point.
I predict you will see MANY MANY regulatory statutes removed or just ignored.
The cost and weight of it will become unsustainable.
Regulatory Conditions are a luxury of a rich society that exists now, but that will not in 10-20 years from now.
Cars will look like 3rd world vehicles. Broken Tail light? You will be lucky if it has lights at all.
MANY MANY regulations I feel will be simply ignored.
Geopolitics initiated the space race (a very simple race compared to the "energy race").
Acute and dramatic oil shortages due to failures in geopoliTICs will likely be The Cause, beginning between now and next summer.
Iranistan and it's Fairy Godz Parent the 12th Imam, as well as the Chaos needed to summon him, will be one key player. Iran has now restocked it's foreign legions Hamas and The Hezbos mostly through Syria The Doormat. The Radical Islamic Armies will initiate hostilities one way or another by next summer ... unless Israel beats them to the punch.
To bad Iranistan is run by the Pat Robertsons of Islam.
Second runner-up ... The Russian Energy Bear.
Instead of Sputnik, it will be their Bear-Hug on the energy supplies to Europe and asian countries. The inability to intimidate the Russian's militarily might force the Sleepy Saps of the West to start dramatic moves towards alternatives to fossil fuels (at least to oil - focus on coal is more likely than alternatives).
Of course, neither of these two countries would be a threat to anyone but themselves if it were not for Peak Oil.
Without Peak Oil, Iran and Russia would both continue to be "mostly harmless" peasant states.
This being a rather Americanocentric place, I am not sure that it is wise of me to mention the following:
Iran is an ancient country with a lot of very nice people living there. Early in the 20th century, the British messed up the place to some degree in order to get at the oil. In WWII, Joseph Stalin took the North and starved it and the British kept the South and did not allow food to be sent up North. After WWII, the British left but the Russians stayed for as long as possible. Eventually they left and took everything they could with them. However, they hung on to the part that is now called Azerbaijan - because of its oil. When the Iranians democratically elected someone who the CIA did not approve of, he was kicked out and the son of a previous despot (who had been exiled by the British) was put in his place. This guy bent over so backwards to give favours (just like with Haliburton in Iraq) to the Americans that eventually he was overthrown. A bunch of religious zealouts and thugs took over - the Shah and his American-inspired "white revolution" had ensured that there were no other centres of power in the country. In view of the above, why does sendoilplease hate and fear these people so much?
Russia is a country with a very sad and dramatic history that I am sure you know better than Iran's. However, let us be a little bit serious now. The events that took place in Russia after the collapse of communism were a good deal more dramatic that the USA's experiences during the "Great Depression". How exactly did the West help out? Did it not try to exploit Russia's weakness to the maximum. Who was it who abrogated the ABM Treaty and why? In view of the repeated threats against the existence of Russia by the USA, is it surprising that Putin is planning to invest in a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles?
If you assume that everyone who happens to have oil is your enemy, you are aiming to create a most unpleasant world. No one encourage you to waste your own oil. With a little effort, you could get by on a lot less oil and probably have a happier society
(That was just a bit of sarcastic humor, by the way.)
If by really anti-American you mean that I don't like it when Americans denigrate other nations and class them as "peasants" - I guess you are correct.
However, I find it sad when you do not like even your friends to point out the silliness of your attitude. You think that guys like Blair are friends of America because they do not tell you what is obvious to them but not to you.
This sarcastic sense of humour has led to the following in Iraq:
Let us not forget that Iraq was a joke for a while and that it was only just before the mid-term elections that your president pointed out that it would be a shame to lose control of Iraq's oil reserves.
The first step to war is usually to try and belittle your perceived foes. That can quickly get out of hand.
I suggest that you stop classing countries into simplistic categories of friend or foe. Germany and France are already downgrading their relationship with the USA and upgrading that with Russia. Most other European countries will eventually do likewise - even Poland once they have lost enough soldier in Afghanistan and other silly adventures.
Being American, but living in Germany, it is always a surprise to see how even the most commonplace Europeans assumptions are considered 'anti-American' by Americans. For example, Chirac needling Blair that at least when France goes along with something, it expects something in return, was a fine reminder of just how Blair gained nothing for his support of Bush. Imagine the Gallic sneering as you wish - and for a change, it was fully deserved - having the French remind you that your own interests are more important than anyone else's must have been galling, since it has become so publicly obvious.
Trust me, much of what I believe is considered to be deeply anti-American, and has been since Reagan was elected, and it was morning again in the shining city on the hill, or whatever poetic paint was splashed over the reality of the most wasteful society the world has ever seen.
I remain surprised at just how many Americans seem incapable of understanding what the rest of the world thinks or believes, in all its variety. Not accepting it, mind you, just grasping the fact that their own opinions and beliefs are as subjective and provincial as everyone else's, and not the revelation of eternal truths which the rest of the world will eventually understand, as they are led to paradise following the American Dream - suburbs from sea to shining sea, with purple plastic majesty.
To the extent that my comment was misunderstood, it was my mistake. But as a note of caution, which my poor skills didn't convey well - the truth seems to many Americans to be 'anti-American' at this point. It can be pretty frustrating to deal with when discussing various challenges facing the world.
A wreath in the shape of the peace sign is considered by Colorado residents to be anti-american or even a sign of the devil.
How sad.
Sometimes, the power of reality trumps even my most cynical and bitter imaginings.
As this reference shows -
'A Nevada City woman was arrested Tuesday for protesting Kmart's display of Easter baskets filled with war toys and military action figures.
Joanna Robinson, 56, of Nevada City, was arrested at 1:15 p.m. Tuesday after complaining about some of the Easter baskets inside the Grass Valley Kmart store, 111 W. McKnight Way, police said.
The Kmart store has stocked four different varieties of Easter baskets full of military toys. One had several miniature toy soldiers, machine guns, and military vehicles, as well as Mega "Warheads" candy. The baskets with war toys did not contain any Easter bunnies or nonviolent toys.
Grass Valley police had warned Robinson she would be arrested if she didn't change her behavior.
Robinson would rapidly approach Kmart customers, holding the package up to their face so they would be forced to see it, an action that was offensive to some of the customers, said Grass Valley Police Sgt. Dave Bishop.'
http://www.theunion.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?Site=TU&Date=20030312&Category=NEWS&ArtNo= 103120036&Ref=AR
Sounds like another example of a good Christian being persecuted for their beliefs, but naah, that doesn't happen in America. No, this was some anti-American peace protester disrupting commerce - and we can't have that. To their credit (see where this is going?), the security guards and police were reluctant to arrest her - but after washing their hands, they did anyways.
They are not always that reluctant to make arrests.
Arrested for Epilepsy - When a Seizure Gets You Thrown in Jail
There is a specific american kind of stupidity which I find more ominous than ruthlessness.
BTW, nobody seems to care to chase the TOD trolls in residence anymore but I have better things to do.
Seems she has a hard time with the competition : a contest between LLohan, Paris and Britney: Who is the biggest slut in hollywood?
I am sorry for allowing myself to get provoked. I guess I had been reading too much nonsense elsewhere and what I read here was the straw that broke the camel's back.
I just get a little fed up from time to time with the gospel according to Fox TV
I wonder what George Bush loving four wheel drive SUV drivers would think if China threatened to sell their dolllar holdings and if Saudi Arabia threatened not to export oil to us--if we did not withdraw from Iraq. Of course, that is very similar to what we and the Saudis did to the UK in 1956. (We threatened to crash the pound.)
I think China did threaten to divest in AmeriKa last year when it looked like the US-Iranian tensions were mounting (can't find the link now).
Yeah,www.theoildrum should be renamed The Oil Drum-Ameriac .I like how our editors have encouraged splitting the posts into different regions like The Oil Drum Europe so we can get different regional perspectives. I think this will be very fruitful. Its a world problem, but each area has different problems and ideas for change. As far as the popularity of the site, I'm more concerned that the site is read by influential people who can have an effect on policies. Who really cares about the goldbugs and survivalist doomers? They probably do more harm to discussing the implications of peak oil than Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Of course,they may get on anti-psychotic drugs someday and have something to add.
The reason I brought up my Christianity is that mainstream Christians have let our religeon be coopted by the fuy the nuts. The Episcopal Church and other main stream denominations believe that we should be stewards of the earth and its resources, not some wierd end-time craziness that despoils and ravages our earthly home. But the crazies get all of the press-I guess snake-handling is just plain more photogenic than a good Baptist like Jimmy Carter helping the people of our planet through building poor people affordable homes or churches going to New Orleans helping to clean up.
Enough of my morning rant.
I agree completely - just be glad Pat Robertson was not elected president.
As for the history leading up to where we stand now - I don't care. That might help explain WHY but it is not an excuse for today's bad behavoir.
The same applies to fights between children - they can always say point to past transgression by the kid they are picking a fight with and we as adults do NOT accept it - so why accept it from Adults Running Nation-states?
"The reason I brought up my Christianity is that mainstream Christians have let our religeon be coopted by the fuy the nuts."
Ask most islamic peoples - including Iranians themselves - and they would likely say the exact same thing.
Alfred, is it okay if anyone OTHER THAN americans "denigrate" other nations?
My point was that neither country would be a threat to anyone if it were not for Peak Oil.
Without the wealth they gain from their energy exports they would have weak economies at best - and could not fund Foreign Legions (e.g. the RIA of Iranistan + Hamas and Hezbo) and threaten all of their neighbors in the region.
Also note, it's not my intention to paint the Russians with the same brush as the Iranians. It is simply a fact of life that the Russaiins have Europe by the Balls - which is why the French and others get down on their knees to please Putin and "upgrade their relationship with Russia"...
Russia's energy monopoly over Europe is one of the geopolitical fuses that is likely to be lit eventually. That's all.
Iran is in a class by itself. As far as I know, the Russains, unlike the Radical Islamic Army of Iran, have not called for wiping any other nation off the map.
It will not take effort. It will be simple necessity. Whether happier or not..
I think the point is that all people - especially democratic nations - are motivated by fear. A simple opponent (Iran, Russia) doesn't do the trick. It will take something that scares the bejesus out of us like 9/11 did. Otherwise no (arms/energy) race.
Cheers, Dom
The question I originally responded to was "what might light the fuse for a Space Race-like effort" by the West.
Something dramatic in the geopolitics of the Needy vs the Greedy and the Religious Fruitloops is my guess.
I think that was your assumption - I picked two Energy Powers. Note the absence of most of Mexico, OPEC and North Sea countries.
Also, Iran's history is no excuse for today's Fascism.
"Iran is an ancient country with a lot of very nice people living there." .
Yes it is. And the same can be said for every country on the planet - even 1930-40s Germany (see below)...
Too bad Iran has been Hijacked by Radical Islam.
Nice people governed by Religious Zealot Fascists who believe the Apocalypse is upon us and their Godzilla Allah wants them to kill all non-believers (including sunni muslims who do not agree with the Iranian Radical Army's version of Islam).
In view of the above, why does sendoilplease hate and fear these people so much?
You are confused - it is not hate. And it is not directed against "their people" - their Fascist government and it's goofy Armageddon is what is feared.
If you have been paying any attention to what the Iranians have been saying you might have a clue as to why the sane in the West as well as their Arab neighbors FEAR them...
Maybe ask someone who would Recognize a Fascist:
Europe will be the one playing Sputnic with Russia..
Here we are at Peak Energy and Peak Matter, and China is rushing it's country into an unsustainable industrial age built on the last of the cheap oil.
They sold their people a Lie. And their peasants will be very disappointed.