DrumBeat: December 1, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 12/01/06 at 2:10 PM EDT]

House to vote on offshore drilling bill

WASHINGTON - House Republicans agreed Friday to move a compromise offshore drilling bill passed by the Senate this summer that would open new territory in the Gulf Coast area to oil rigs and create a cash cow for nearby states.

With time running out on the party's majority rule, GOP leaders decided to send the measure to the floor for a vote next week, Kevin Madden, a spokesman for Majority Leader John Boehner said.

Energy industry: Give us something solid - Utility execs see carbon restrictions as inevitable, want regulations 'soon rather than later;' seek stability in oil markets; questions linger over nuclear power.

Saudi Arabia was held up as a model example.

John Roberts, an energy security specialist with Platts, the provider of energy information that sponsored the event, said the kingdom pledged $53 billion to expand its oil infrastructure.

"They are putting their money where their mouth is," said Roberts. "They say they are increasing capacity, and there is no reason to think they won't. With other countries, it's much less clear."


Stirling Newberry on the economy, peak oil, and global warming: The Other Future

It isn't energy per se that is the problem, but the problem of recycling petrodollars and the marginal profits of energy. Namely, if the last barrel of oil that keeps everyone happy is at $64/barrel – where it is today – then the producer who has costs of $5/barrel, which is about the Saudi cost all in – will make $59/bbl, less the costs of the bribes. This distorts the economy. The related problem is that the sprawlconomy relies on this energy system, and while it produces a great deal of nominal wealth, much of that nominal wealth is really negative savings. That is, it relies on someone in the future paying more of their income to buy the same house.


Surprise: Oil Woes In Iran

Yet Iran has a surprising weakness: Its oil and gas industry, the lifeblood of its economy, is showing serious signs of distress. As domestic energy consumption skyrockets, Iran is struggling to produce enough oil and gas for export. Unless Tehran overhauls its policies, its primary source of revenue and the basis of its geopolitical muscle could start to wane. Within a decade, says Saad Rahim, an analyst at Washington consultancy PFC Energy, "Iran's net crude exports could fall to zero."


OPEC chief says 2nd output cut likely

ABUJA, Nigeria - OPEC is likely to trim production again, the president of the oil cartel said Friday, adding that he expects a cut of at least 500,000 barrels a day.


OPEC Secretary General: Angola Poised to Join OPEC

OPEC's Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo confirmed Thursday that Angola was poised to join the oil producer group and Sudan was moving closer, but there was no formal timeframe for the two countries to join.


Kuwait Taps Banks to Reassess Oil Output Plan

Kuwait has hired banks Morgan Stanley and Lazard to help the Gulf state reassess how it should go about developing several oil fields that are key to boosting its long-term oil supplies, Kuwait's oil minister told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.


Western oil companies face Asian upstarts in Africa

Western oil companies operating in Africa, one of the world's fastest growing petroleum regions, are meeting their match - in the form of Asia's national oil companies.


India and Pakistan Reject Gas Price Devised by Iran

India and Pakistan have rejected the gas import price worked out by a consultant company appointed by Iran as part of the over US$7 billion tri-nation pipeline project.


India monsoons worsen as climate changes

India's monsoon rains have intensified over the last half-century as average temperatures have risen, and more severe weather could be in store if global warming continues, scientists reported on Thursday.


The planet is taking a hit from unsustainable industrial agriculture - A review of Dale Allen Pfeiffer's Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture.


The Devil and the details

On the nearby Pecho Coast, American nuclear energy effectively died but if the neo-cons eye a renaissance, it must begin at Diablo Canyon.


Belarus President Supports Nuclear Power Plant Plan


Spring likely to see spike in gas prices

WEST PALM BEACH — Gasoline prices will go up 50 to 60 cents a gallon in the spring but probably won't reach $3 a gallon like they did this year, a nationally known oil expert said Thursday.

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst with the Wall, N.J.-based Oil Price Information Service, told the Economic Forum of Palm Beach County that the long-term solution to the problem of rising prices is for consumers to use less.


Oil Boom Helps Raise Profile of Chinese Shipbuilding Industry


John Michael Greer: Solstice 2100

My second attempt to use the tools of narrative fiction to explore the deindustrial future, this story is set half a century after “Christmas Eve 2050.” Once again the subject is an American family’s experience in a world after peak oil. Between the two narratives, several more cycles of catabolic collapse, involving civil war, epidemic disease, and the onset of severe climate change, have transformed the physical and cultural landscape, with more changes in sight.


Expert wants more research in sustainable development


Surprise: Not-so-glamorous conservation works best: Efficient appliances and flourescent bulbs are easy upgrades that make a big difference, experts say.


Tipping point: energy

The energy tipping point has been reached, just as a system such as the climate has been found to have a critical threshold that some scientists believe has probably been reached. Obviously, climate disaster is much more ominous than the enormous consequences of passing the energy tipping point. As if it's a matter of choice, there are those who don't want to see any concerns about energy supply distract us from the climate challenge. Yet, the two crises are related and inseparable. There happens to be a common approach to mitigate each of them.


Coal to oil independence becoming a fading dream

With the Democrats taking center stage in policy making, and crude oil prices stuck in the low 60s range, the possibility of a major synthetic fuel alternative development is fading fast.


Mercury rises on natural gas prices: Heating bills could skyrocket this winter

WASHINGTON — Natural gas prices are soaring on commodity markets, a development that could lead to higher-than-expected heating bills this winter.

Natural gas prices trading for delivery in January rose 11% in November and are trading near a 10-month high.

Much of the gain has come in the last week. The reason: Cold weather is sweeping across the USA, leading to increased demand and, thus, higher prices.


Britain could face winter gas shortages

LONDON - Britain could face a repeat of last winter's gas shortages and soaring energy prices if a prolonged period of colder-than-average weather sets in this winter, independent analysts Global Insight said on Thursday.

The launch of new pipelines to import gas from Norway and the Netherlands may not be enough to offset declines in output from the UK's ageing North Sea fields if a lengthy cold snap grips Europe's biggest market for the fuel.


Russia approves plan to double domestic natural gas prices

MOSCOW: The Russian government approved a plan Thursday to more than double local natural gas prices by early next decade to make the economy more efficient, but it avoided a steep increase before parliamentary elections next year.
Something of note about the weather here in New England: Mark Twain's satire has come true:

If you don't like the weather in New England, wait a minute.

If nat. gas prices hinge on weather to any degree, then the weather here says it's a crap shoot: two years in a row with rainfall at least 50% above normal; "open" winter months, meaning no snow on the ground; this year we have a sweltering November, in the same way that last year we had a December that was so mild I spread manure on the field before Christmas.

Meanwhile, on the west coast there is snow in places that sometimes never see snow in the year (Seattle, Vancouver), with temperatures about 10-15 C (18-27 F) below "normal".

Maybe "no normal" is the new normal. :-)

The weather is crazy this year.  It's downright balmy in the northeast.  Like, 70F.  

The middle of the country is a mess.  Two feet of snow in Texas, tornados in Ohio.  I pity anyone trying to fly yesterday.

Madame Nature had to do something with all that pent up energy that failed to materialize during the hurricane season.  

I like the phrase "Climate Change" more than "Global Warming" to describe what the world is currently experiencing.

That is a very good way to phrase it. Did you know that every other warm period has ended with a significant warming event that then transitioned, often in less than a decade, into a full blown ice age?
I know this is a US and Euro-centered website, but try telling that to the Phillipines, who just got nailed by their 4th(!!) Katrina+ sized supertyphoon in the last 10 weeks. Can you imagine the hue and cry if that were to happen to us?
I think Leanan pointed this out earlier.  Even though the GOM or Eastern US didn't get pummeled this year, there are other parts of the world that did.  So overall hurricane/typhoon activity is still probably higher than average across the globe.
I suggest doing a little more research before coming to that conclusion.
I suggest doing a little more research before coming to that conclusion.

There was a lot of typhoon and cyclonic action in the world this year.  Australia alone had two back to back CAT 5, stormsone of which knocked out almost all of the country's banana crop.  I might add that strong cyclones hitting Australia had almost faded from memory as the last which caused any major damage occured back in 1974 with cyclone Tracy.
And when was the last time a major hurricane hit New Orleans?
And when was the last time a major hurricane hit New Orleans?

Err, last year.
I'm talking about a major hurricane before Katrina.  I find the GW to super hurricane link to be tenuous at best.  It took 30+ years of increasing temperatures for one to manifest in the US/NO and cause the destruction everyone was talking about.
I'm talking about a major hurricane before Katrina.  I find the GW to super hurricane link to be tenuous at best.  It took 30+ years of increasing temperatures for one to manifest in the US/NO and cause the destruction everyone was talking about.

Buddy it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever technofix you've got in place, and you're screwed.  Case in point - New Orleans.
Like wise, it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever permaculturefix you've got in place, and you're screwed.  Guess we should all just roll over and die then, right?
Like wise, it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever permaculturefix you've got in place, and you're screwed.  Guess we should all just roll over and die then, right?

Yep, only the scale of the disaster is different.  Buddy people have been producing (including reproducing) and consuming without limits while drawing down finite resources for several centuries now - stuffing up the natural world in the process, it doesn't matter what technofixes you try to institute to alleviate the symptoms of all that producing and consuming going on, eventually there will be a collapse and die-off when the resources that enabled our overshoot (like fossil fuels) are exhausted.  All technofixes do in the context of perpetual growth in a finite world is ensure that the collapse and die-off will be even more resounding when it comes, as there will be more people, infrastructure, and GDP being supported at the final ecological reckoning.  Doesn't matter what you and I want or think as these trends of exponential growth and consumption are continuing unabated, and will continue to do so as virtually all people in the world are clamouring for more development (production and consumption) not less.  Worldwide population control is politically impossible, and no one will willingly agree to reduce their living standards in order to conserve finite resources and the biosphere for the benefit of future generations and the other species.  
The "specified design criteria" þ were NOT exceeded during Katrina.  The US Army# finally admitted that they knew that their design was faulty and would fail prematurely in 1985, biut kepy quite about the design fault.

Some retired colonel ot general should be found in retirement, court martialed and shot for killing over 1,000 Americans through criminal neglect.

þ The debris line was 12 to 13 inches below the top when the 17th Street Canal when it just collapsed.  I have talked to eye witnesses and seen photos.

# In 1928, after the Great Mississippi River Flood of 1927, the US Army was given responsibility for flood control for several US cities critical to the nation's well being.  New Orleans and St. Louis among the few cities specified (from meory)

The "specified design criteria" þ were NOT exceeded during Katrina.

Alan, whether by accident or design the levy walls were breached, and that is the point.  If it wasn't meant to be there in the first place, was poorly designed, or is merely addressing the effects of overproduction and over-consumption rather than the overproduction and over-consumption itself, you're just delaying the inevitable.  Nature will always produce an event which is greater than the specified design criteria - for there are no technofixes for the problems generated by perpetual growth in a finite world.  You just allow more people to exist, more infrastructure and GDP to be supported before the inevitable day of reckoning, and this was the lesson of Katrina.
No, the lesson of Katrina was that the US Army was criminally negligent.  Had we had honest engineers, say, Dutch, we would have had a couple of weeks without power, lots of roof damage, a half dozen dead from accidents, etc.

You are seeing some great moral anout civilization that is JUST NOT THERE !  It is very similar to a dam failure whe nthe water rises to within a foot of the top of the dam.  The moral is NOT "Oh my God, we should not build dams !" but "What idiot built that dam !"

Amsterdam & Rotterdam are protected behind multiple layers of defense against 10,000 year storms and are mulling how to improve that rating with sea level rise.

Fortunately, New Orleans already knows the answer to that.  Use the sediment from the spring floods to build up the delta, reversing a century of US Army Corps of Engineers.

Best Hopes,

Alan

The moral is NOT "Oh my God, we should not build dams !" but "What idiot built that dam !"

Another side effect of placing too much faith in technology is that sometimes it just fails.  After all it is designed by humans.  Mistakes can occur in the design, materials, construction or the simple operation of the system involved. Alan I agree with your sentiments. There is no moral to the story behind Katrina - only lessons.  And a lesson is presented until it is learnt it's said.  I feel there will be many lessons to be learnt through the pain of the collapse that's to come.
The lesson is not a "mistake", but a fundamental lack of INTEGRITY by a SYSTEM.  In this case, it was engineers in the uniform of the US Army who lacked a fundamental level of integrity !

Alan

Driving home after work last night it was 65 degrees at 3AM in Milford, NH.  On Dec 1.  Unprecedented!
Warmest 6 months on record in Britain.

And we have longer complete records than anyone else-- back to the 1690s, I believe.

Also the warmest November on record.  And nearly the warmest year on record.

I just harvested the last of my lettuce, chard, and arugula three days ago, before the cold hit.  Impressive for the middle of the country the end of November, but that's the way it's been for a few years now, around here.
Summer here started quite early, no rain at all for many months, and stayed late.  85 degrees as late as last week. Very very unseasonal, all year long.
According to the news this morning, here in the St. Louis
area, 350,000 people are without power.  The utilities are
doing their best to restore power in the area but are having difficulty getting help from neighboring utilities because they are busy dealing with outages in their area.

Wednesday it was about 70 degrees here.  Yesterday, it was freezing rain and snow.

Whoa! Planet of the frickin' Apes. 70 Degrees! Holy Shit! That musta been like Hell. Freezing rain and snow! Wowie Zowie! That sounds like an Old Grateful Dead Tune. How did you ever survive? It must have been wicked cold. Are you OK?
Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, Finland remains remarkably warm, today 7C / 45F in Helsinki. Usually at the beginning of December there is snow pretty much everywhere in the country (except perhaps the South Coast), but now it seems only the northernmost bits have any snow at all. And according to forecasts, the unusual warm spell will continue next week. Just the other day I saw a meteorologist on TV saying that, while one can't be sure of the causes, this is pretty much what the climate change models would predict.
Great info, Jussi, thank you.  I know I, for one, would love to hear more from non-US TOD readers about weather conditions in other parts of the world.
The only 2 things I know for sure-
Australia and the UK are both in a severe drought.
Southern England is in drought. We have had a lot of rain here in Scotland.

November has been warm, wet and windy.

A lot of rigs have been 'waiting on weather' due to a sequence of low pressure systems coming in from the Atlantic.

We have not had a frost worthy of the name and some trees are budding.

Still it can change quickly, but I am not betting on a White Christmas :-(

It's been the dryest 18 months on record, here in south eastern England.

But the last few days have had record rainfall, I think.

It's been the dryest 18 months on record, here in south eastern England.

But the last few days have had record rainfall, I think.

Add to that we've had hail, in London.

I can only think of hail, here, two or three times in the last 20 years (I would notice, because where I grew up August hail was a common occurrence).

Record setting rainfall NW USA
Germany seems to have experienced the coldest August on record this year, followed by the warmest October and November, ever. The warmest November was so in the bag that it was declared about a week ago, since no one expected a few -20° (either scale) days to even things out at the end.

No one seriously doubts climate change in Germany, and a good number of people are worried about it, at all levels. There is no climate change denial industry here, though of course, there are major corporate power blocs (car industry, power industry) which would prefer to keep their profit margins comfortable, without having to deal with the still not conclusively proven.

Warmest November on record in the Tokyo area (may well be true for japan, but i wasn't paying that much attention to the news...)
...and here it is, December 1, in Maine, and we're getting one hell of a thunderstorm. This is too much.
I posted this late to the Drumbeat yesterday, but I wrote a short essay on a story I saw yesterday:

Ethanol Demand Boosting Corn Prices

In the story they say the average corn price this year will be $3 a bushel and in 2007 $3.40. That means that right now the corn costs alone add $1.11 to a gallon of ethanol. So much for Vinod Khosla's claim:

Even in the U.S., and this is a conservative number, ethanol costs - most of the plants I look at - costs are about $0.90 a gallon to produce. [In contrast, slide 5 says gasoline costs $1.60 a gallon to produce.] Compared to any price you can imagine for gasoline, down to about $35 a barrel, ethanol is cheaper.

This corn ethanol business is shaping up to be a national disaster. Well, unless you are a corn farmer or ethanol producer. Remember, we are mandated to almost double ethanol usage from current levels!

I purchase corn for my corn stove from my local grain elevator, in 1000 pound quantities...Western Michigan.

Last winter the average was $ 2.73 per bushel.
Current price is $ 4.40 per bushel.

That would be an increase of 61%.

Rick

When the price of beef and pork goes through the roof and wheat and soybean products (as substitutes) follows, you can be sure the meat and cereal industries will point their stressed and trembling fingers at ethanol. And quickly.

Corn ethanol was an unbelievably stupid idea.

Mid-west electoral politics will become interesting soon.

 

Is it true that meat critters are about to be dumped on the markets because of arriving higher grain prices?

Just wondering if we should prepare for the price to plummet temporarily, in which case I'll stock up.