The Oil Drum

Rick

One reason I (again) bring this up is that one of the lead articles in today's thread claims that roughly 1 million bbl/day of Russian oil is sold illegally.  It has also been reported elsewhere that a smaller yet still sizeable amount of Iraqi oil gets diverted to the black market. As such, I find it doubtful that this 'hot' oil gets accurately recorded in the respective country's production statistics, if it gets recorded at all.

I've asked this as an open question about three or four times in as many ways, but no one out there seems to be able to offer a numerical answer (i.e. something other than 'pretty good') as to the confidence level, error band, or whatever those more statistically literate than I wish to call it.

The accuracy of these production numbers is also potentially muddied by an apples & oranges problem as to whether all the components that make of the global total consist of just crude + condensate, c + c plus NGL plus other liquids, or what.

As such, I have a very hard time seeing these global production numbers as being anymore accurate than three significant figures (at best).

I know this is a bit beside your point that production (as however measured) has not moved much, but I think there is a tendency here at TOD to read too much into some of these very small differences between very large numbers.

I remember hearing about some people who lived for several months in pre-medieval conditions, (I don't recall the exact historical period). The hardest part of acclimating back to modern life was that they were always too warm when they went into buildings heated to modern temperatures.

We have areas of the house at 58 and other areas at 68.

The area that is 68 is the TV, dining and kitchen area.  You would not believe how it "brings the family together".

By the way, I work in my office at 58. You get used to it.

Disclaimer - 58 is not recommended for the aged or the sick.

Rick

The whole house, in fact, was probably cold.  It was also probably damp owing to its being continually cleaned with bucketfuls of water.  The chimney was a prominent feature, large and ornate with a carved canopy and shelves containing rows of porcelain and other ornaments; but its peat fire gave out little heat, and in cold winters the ladies of the house sat sewing or reading encased in layers of bulky undergarments, with foot-warmers under their feet and thick shawls round their shoulders.  Husbands were as well muffled as their wives.  'The true Dutchman cuts the strangest figure in the world,' wrote Oliver Goldsmith.  'He wears no coat but seven waistcoasts and nine pairs of trousers, so that his huanches start somewhere under his armpits.  The Dutchwoman wears as many petticoast as her husband does trousers.'  They both wore the plainest clothes, another Englishman complained, with 'neither shape nor pleats; and their long pockets [were] set as high as their ribs.'

I guess it's a strategy for dealing with Peak NG.  Seriously, though I heard many people in my town were setting their thermostats way down last winter.

I like the thermostat at different temperatures depending on what I a doing. If I am sleeping, 50 is fine. In the morning, 67 is much more comfortable. Whenever I am around the house, a sweater or pullover is standard - so is about 65.

My biggest problem is visiting other buildings. I can dress for the weather outside and to be comfortable around the house, but then when I visit my friends in their apartments, the thermostat is set to ~77 by the management. This is uncomfortably warm and explains why my friends have so many pairs of shorts.

I think a law that mandates a standard temperature for public buildings should be legislated. If evey one of those building went from 77 to 65, think of how much NG would be saved. People would also get used to that temperature so that other buildings would be more likely to select a lower temperature as well.

Alternatively, a powerplant like the one from 'the matrix' to harness all of the hot air coming out of washington might be a good investment.

We have a programmable thermostat, which is essential for us.  We live in a dark and very cold climate in a house built in 1946.  It is not well insulated, although we are gradually correcting that.  We set the thermostat to 55 degrees at night.  In the morning the temp. goes up to 65 degrees for one hour then back to 62 degrees (F) for the rest of the day.  Suffice it to say that the woodstove is popular and the kids actually like getting long underwear for Christmas/Solstice.

When we kept the house at A-STP (American standard temperature and pressure...68 degrees day/65 degrees night) our fuel oil consumption for the year was averaging 355 to 400 gallons.  Now we use between 180 and 220 gallons per year.  However, some of the heating load is taken up by our high-efficiency woodstove, so we really have not halved or fuel use; more a case of substitution.  On a cash cost basis, the 400 gallons were priced at $2.25/Gal while last winter's heating oil ran about $3.50 delivered.  Our strategy is to heat room where people are, not the house.

I don't think we will willingly set the thermostat much lower...the kids and wife are about at their limit.  My experience is that, as long as you are busy, temperatures between 55-62 degrees are comfortable.  If you sit down to read or play on the computer it becomes uncomfortable unless you add clothes...mostly the family wears hats, berets and beanies inside.  Wool throws and blankets become fought over commodities.  Long underwear is just what you wear in the winter (the merino wool stuff from smartwool is worth the price).

As to plumbing, when we get those -10 to -40 degree nights, we do increase our heating but rather than heat the unheated spaces through which the plumbing is routed, we open sink cabinets and leave the water running; my more wealthy neighbors us thermostatically controlled heat tape.

Given the complexities of insulation, my choice for determining how well your house is insulated would be exploratory and mathematical.  First, determine what you actually have, (I removed the siding and poked around) and then calculate the whole wall insulation.  Remember that the insulation between the joists/studs is only part of the picture...the thermal "breaks caused by the studs significantly reduce the whole wall insulative values.  Then you need to get a handle on leakage. Leakage will be pretty important especially on older houses like mine...when the wind blows the house loses heat very quickly.  After all that math you will be able to calculate how many btu/hour your house loses for a given outside temperature and wind speed.  It is a good exercise, but time consuming...I usually do only a wall at a time...windows and wind suck heat bad.  I think ASHRAE has some good numbers for this.

Apart from visual inspection of accessible areas and windows, there isn't a simple way to know how well your house is insulated.  I've looked into purchasing a camera sensitive enough to IR to show heat loss from walls, but they are quite expensive.  An example is the IR 235 DX Robust handheld FLIR Thermal Infrared Imaging Camera which shatters the 8k price barrier!.

I turned off my condo's heater, but in coastal California the lowest temp I've seen so far is 57F in the morning.  I seem to recall 54F as the low last February.  The real drag is that my condo is down a hill and behind some trees.  It might be 11:00 AM before I get any direct sun.  That means bundling up, or heading up the hill to the sun.

This all started as an experiment, to see if heat is really needed here, and I'd say it isn't (for a healthy adult).  And I think I actually stay healthier ... but that could be my imagination.

My best practical advice?  If you feel cold, eat something.  That seems to flip a switch, fire up the body's thermostat.

(59F feels warm to me right now)