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DrumBeat: June 22, 2006
Posted by threadbot on June 22, 2006 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Thomas L. Friedman, Pulitzer Prize winning foreign affairs columnist, explores his ideas for a "Geo-Green Alternative," a multi-layered strategy to manage problems from funding terrorist supporters through gasoline purchases to strengthening th... [sic]
More info here.
"Kuwaiti national interests will not be served by increasing production"Update [2006-6-22 9:11:54 by Leanan]: Podcast - Kunstler: When Energy Demand Exceeds Supply - Impacts on Transportation and CitiesKUWAIT CITY (AFP) - The Kuwaiti opposition plans to reject a government strategy to raise oil production capacity in the light of reports that the emirate's reserves are half the announced figure, a leading opposition candidate has said.
On April 19th, 2006, the University of Winnipeg, Centre for Sustainable Transportation, and the Institute of Urban Studies, presented a symposium and free public lecture featuring James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency. We bring you highlights from James Howard Kunstler's speech at the Winnipeg Art Gallery in Winnipeg, Canada.Download the audio at Planetizen. (MP3, 8 Mb)
Update [2006-6-22 9:27:21 by Leanan]: Chaos as fuel prices shoot up in Zanzibar:
...An incident involving a Chukwani bound bus bearing registration number ZNZ 31948 forced it to a stop midway and all passengers who had objected to the new rates disembark.Brazil's Ipiranga Halts Refining as Oil Prices Rise:At Darajani central bus terminal which is normally congested with commuters, only a few people could be seen as most of them had elected to walk.
Refinaria de Petroleo Ipiranga SA, Brazil's second-largest oil company, said it halted refining operations because it can't raise fuel prices in Brazil enough to cover the cost of imported crude oil.In Uganda, the frequent power outages are causing the price of manufactured goods to rise.
In Nigeria, Shell is against the use of military force. Also, the Philippine government says negotiations are ongoing for the release of two Filipino oil workers abducted by armed militants.
Carnegie Mellon researchers think switchgrass is the answer.
California sets "clean energy" oil tax on ballot. The proposal would tax oil production in order to fund alternative energy.
The Daily Reckoning is not impressed by oil shale.
And in Scotland, they're turning roads and parking lots into solar panels.
Chevron Nigeria targets 700 000 barrels/day
Iran says oil production increased
Ok, so they all can't be "Gems"...
Venezuela to set oil fields on fire in event of aggression - ambassador
Happy Thursday...
-C.
barrels of sea water a day to get 500,000 barrels
of oil, it would stand to reason they were going
to be taking out an amount daily equal to the
amount injected daily plus the oil. 500,000 barrels of oil
for 1.1 million barrels of sea water injected would
be a 31% water cut wouldn't it?
The amounts that they inject would be plus the formation water that they are already producing so the 69% water cut may be quite a bit higher.
On the injection wells you have two main constraints, how much water the formation will take and how much water can be injected without formation damage.
One other thing-sulphur gas,or sour gas is not produced with light, sweet crude. So I question just how sweet this oil is that they are planning to waterflood.
Click the link below for my earlier explanation of why 100% reservoir voidage replacement (means: putting back what you take out) requires that you ALWAYS inject more water than you produce oil, even if you aren't producing any water or free gas (briefly: 1 barrel of oil on the surface previously occupied 1.2 to 2 barrels in the reservoir). In this case we're looking at an implicit GOR of 600 so I wouldn't expect a formation volume factor above 1.3 or so, implying a water injection rate of 650 Mb/d. Of course that 300 MMscf/d may not bear very much relation at all to what's in the wellstream.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/8/233314/5260 and scroll down about 20% or search for the phrase "formation volume factor".
Excerpt: "A group of lawmakers in the dissolved parliament has submitted a bill seeking to limit Kuwait's annual production to one percent of proven reserves."
I wonder if we might see this as a growing trend in oil exporting countries, as it becomes more apparent that we are post-peak worldwide.
Note that the reduced (PIW) reserve estimate cited in the article is consistent with Stuart's HL plot.
The Kuwaitis fudged their nums. BFD.
Every corp. in the U.S. does the same damn thing. EIA does the same damn thing. Congress approves a bogus budget every year. Same damn thing. Inflation numbers exclude energy and food. Same damn thing.
Why get excited?
How Have High Energy Costs Affected You?
Here was the sad story that I told them:
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I work for an oil company. Every time I turn around, my industry is scapegoated for high gas prices. Even though people lose their lives each year in this industry to keep the gas flowing, and our profit margins are less than those of many other industries, we are painted as villains out to rip off the public. That is unfortunate. I would say that Democratic politicians are the worst offenders.
It is time to stop pointing fingers, and to start implementing policies that will benefit energy consumers in the long term. Ensuring a steady supply of cheap energy is not the way to do it, as this will cause us to burn through our remaining energy supplies at a faster rate. I believe the root problem is our reluctance to embrace conservation, and unless this is addressed all other solutions are doomed.
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Somehow, I doubt they will use it as it doesn't play into the "poor me, gas is too high" story. :^(
RR
While I basically agree with what you said in your letter, I can almost guarantee that it will either be ignored or given patronizing lip service (....thank you for your interest in.....blah, blah).
Serious conservation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for getting ourselves out of this energy mess. However, pushing conservation is not a great way to get yourself elected or reelected. Just ask Jimmy Carter. The way you do that is to put on that millions-dollar smile and proclaim, "It's morning in America!"
The oil companies try to do what all corporations do and that is maximize returns for their shareholders. Big deal.
I agree that the Republicans have their own issues. But in this case, it was the Democratic governors who asked for sad tales about how the high cost of energy has affected us. So, I complied.
I also submitted a question for today's conference call with the governors. I asked when they were going to stop pointing fingers, and get serious about conservation. I also pointed out that claiming ethanol is the answer is incredibly naive.
RR
Of all the people on this board I respect you a lot. But "I would say that Democratic politicians are the worst offenders" and then you go on to say "I asked when they were going to stop pointing fingers". Come on, give me a break, if your statement is to have people "not pointing fingers", it would be best to start at home.
I am not sure I understand your point. Both sides are playing politics with a very important issue by blaming everyone by consumers for high gas prices. Dems are pointing fingers at Republicans and at oil companies for the energy crisis. Likewise, Republicans are pointing fingers at environmentalists and Democrats. This is too serious of an issue to play politics with, and I want to bring attention to these games.
If you are saying that I shouldn't be pointing fingers at their finger-pointing, well, I disagree. If enough people ask them to stop finger-pointing and playing politics, maybe they will get serious about addressing core issues. In that way, perhaps I can accomplish something by my finger-pointing. What exactly are they going to accomplish by pointing fingers at oil companies and blaming them for high gas prices?
RR
Sorry to not make my point well. You say that that it is too serious a game for finger-pointing. Yet you have no problem pointing fingers at Democrats. Then you say "If enough people ask them to stop finger-pointing", yet there is no problem with you doing it yourself, as long as it is about Democrats. Hey I could care less about politics, I hate everybody. But if you want to know who screwed the pouch on the energy bill, you would have to look at those in power. Though I am sure it is good for your paycheck, and I don't blame you for that.
Well, that's your misinterpretation. I am not doing it just at Democrats. I am doing it at any grandstanding and pandering politicians.
But if you want to know who screwed the pouch on the energy bill, you would have to look at those in power.
The problem is both sides. Those not in power are generally not making suggestions that are truly helpful. They are grandstanding and trying to deflect attention from the real problem. Those in power are not pushing policies that are helpful, and I have directed ire at them. It takes a lot of courage to stand up and tackle the root cause, and I see few politicians willing to do it. So, they waste time, while we drive the truck toward the cliff. It ticks me off.
Though I am sure it is good for your paycheck, and I don't blame you for that.
My paycheck has nothing to do with it, and since that's how you view me, I won't be responding to you any further. I joined Big Oil to work on an alternative energy project. I advocate policies that would encourage conservation. How do you suppose that's good for my paycheck?
RR
This seems to be getting very negative, I had no intention of it getting that way. Obviously I completely misinterpreted your opening comments, please forgive me. I will try to reread it an understand your point of view. Everyone tends to look out for place where there bread is buttered on, if you take offense, once again I give my regrets.
No harm done. I do think you misunderstood my point. I am not just pointing fingers at Democrats. I am pointing fingers at those I believe are politically pandering. This issue is important. When I hear people say we can make gas cheap again by punishing the oil companies or watering down environmental protections, it makes me angry.
I am in a funny position, working for an oil company and supporting conservation and alternative energy. I am constantly surrounded by people on one side hurling names at me like "conservative", and then I have others snarling "liberal" at me. I have been called both in just the past 30 days. I don't really fit well with either party. I prefer most policies of the Democrats (especially with respect to science policy), but I don't like their constant oil company bashing. I understand that they can score political points, but I see it as a cynical ploy that offers no solutions.
RR
Please understand the sincerity in which I apologize for any transgression on my part, I guess I am to old and thick skinned to realize what I am saying.
Libservative! :P
I believe that the cities and states with excellent mass transit, enjoyed by all classes of people, will win. People will want to live in those states and cities as the price of gas goes up and up.
What can we do on a city or state basis to encourage the building of excellent mass transit?
Rick
Is that a good thing?
I believe that the state needs to provide an alternative way (other than cars) for the workers to get to their jobs. If they don't, the workers will spend way too much of their income on going to and from work.
Employers will soon start using mass transit as one of the reasons in deciding where to locate.
Rick
Already, public transportation systems are under strain, in the U.S. and around the world. More passengers won't necessarily be viewed as good thing.
Mass transit that all classes ride
We keep building highways...why not increase mass transit to handle more riders and forget about increasing highway capacity?
Rick
So much so, that they changed the national Professional Engineer's licensing exam, removing the long-standing question about laying out a cloverleaf interchange in favor of environmental permitting questions. Few engineers lay out new highways now. They just patch the existing ones.
I think that's what the "build public transportation" folk are missing. Since we hit the U.S. peak, we really haven't built much infrastructure at all. We can't afford it. Roads, sewers, power grids...all built 45 to 75 years ago.
We aren't going to be building a bunch of new infrastructure in the post-carbon age. We'll have even less money, and the raw materials will be even scarcer and more expensive.
We just approved building a highway from Kalamazoo, Michigan to Indiana...changing a two lane into a divided 4 lane.
So, we are building them around here. But, I agree, we won't be for long.
Rick
But it's nothing like we were doing before.
What really ticks me off is the power grid. A lot of it was built ca. 1930, and it's just not up to handling the modern load. Even after the Blackout of 2003, nobody's doing anything. Our Congresscritters talked about how important it was for the grid to be upgraded for about a week after the event, then dropped it like a hot potato.
If not then, when?
Just Dr. Duncan's Olduvai Gorge Theory in action-- more and more grid outages are occurring worldwide. Here is an interesting link discussing how heat-related deaths dwarf deaths from any other disasters. AZ & FL, which have a large % of heat-sensitive elderly, would see skyrocketing death rates if the grid goes down:
http://tinyurl.com/dysj8
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In 2003, a summer heat wave killed between 22,000 and 35,000 people in five European countries. Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in Paris, and London recorded its first triple-digit Fahrenheit temperature in history.
If a similar heat wave struck the United States, the results would be disastrous, a new study suggests. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable, because dark asphalt and rooftops absorb more solar radiation than natural landscapes, raising nighttime temperatures by as much as five degrees, according to NASA studies.
In order to see the effects of extreme heat events on the United States, the researchers developed models to simulate scenarios analogous to that of Europe's for heat-sensitive urban areas.
"We tried to take the Paris heat wave in 2003 and transpose it onto the climate of five different cities," Kalkstein said. The cities: Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Washington, D.C.
The results were not cool. The total simulated excess deaths were more than five times the historical summer average, with New York and St. Louis showing the highest numbers.
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The Asphalt Wonderland's tarmac of black death can easily reach 160 deg F during the hottest part of the day. People that have fainted onto peakheat asphalt quickly suffer terrible burns.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Since we're speaking here of infrastructure one of the scariest parts of that heat wave was that as it neared the end, bridges and roads started to buckle. Other bridges were closed as a precaution. A few roofs here and there buckled but I can tell you every roof in the Midwest lost a lot of its lifespan in those 2 weeks.
There are roads in Death Valley and I'm sure they are built tp take what the sun throws at them. If the experience of 1995 led highway engineers to start building for foreseeable climate change there are pigs flying past my window.
Grid failure brings up an interesting future consideration. How will the Govt carefully apportion postPeak energy supplies and pricing schemes in future A/C vs Heating survival rates?
- Is it better to postPeak hoard the SPR, NG, and Coal for summer A/C to prevent violence and heat-related deaths? Afterall, you can always put on more clothing, move to multiple families/house, or put another log on the fire to stay warm. There is no escaping lethal heat with the grid down; if you don't have a home genset, your screwed.
- Or is it better to prevent freezing deaths among the young and accept the high elderly heat-death rate as a logical first result of the Dieoff process? This is how Nature reduces most old animals in drought stricken areas of high heat. [Don't forget grid failure quickly means no lifesaving ice & water too-- ask anyone in a hurricane zone]. Colder climates usually have better water infrastructure and you can hang meat in your shed for safe cold storage. Just don't eat the yellow snow.
Comments?Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The general outlook on global warming is for greater deviations around a somewhat higher temperature mean. So engineers should be preparing roadways or powerlines & everything else to survive higher highs and lower lows. If someone will pay for it. If it can be done at all.
The European heatwave of 2003 was an anomaly at 3 standard deviations. I hope good engineers are ready for something like that. In Switzerland it was 5 standard deviations. No one prepares for that. For some reason things are intrinsically stable or they're not. As global warming moves along these events become more common.
Note to Bob. My sister who'd been in Scottsdale since '73 came to visit in '95 and said she'd never felt heat like we had.
As for Bob's point about violence: when it's really hot people act like dead dogs. Nothing at all happens until it gets cooler.
The other big outcome of Europe 2003 was crop failure. From Spain to Ukraine, every region, every crop. MSM here focussed on trivia like French grand cru vineyards. 70% shortfall in Ukrainian wheat was more important. By and large Europe did OK because they are so far into specialty luxury agriculture and because they have money and because there are stockpiles and a global market. What has happeneed before can happen again. What happened in Europe could happen in North America. Or South Asia. And then there would be no more stockpile.
Having a home generator only helps for a little while, while you have gas. How much do you keep? Doomers seem to have very little imagination to me. And what gets us may be what we have not imagined at all.
There were posts here a few days ago laughing at Stephen Hawking for positing a human exit to other planets. No one seemed to notice his number one big concern was sudden global warming. If hopping the next Pan Am flight to the moon is out of the question my best guess is do what's possible here and now to slow global warming and build community. Standing over your dying generator shotgun in hand will not help you survive.
Katrina was not an anomaly at all. Something like that happens with some predictability down in NOLA every twenty years or so. Global warming or not. Our track record at Scout's motto "Be Prepared" is not good.
Alternatively, only allow development that has enough installed PV to at least take care of enough air conditioning to save lives when needed.