DrumBeat: June 23, 2006

Update [2006-6-23 9:17:39 by Leanan]: President Clinton raises the alarm about oil depletion. Looks like he's read Twilight In the Desert, and thinks Matt Simmons is correct.

Iran to halt gasoline imports, impose rationing

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will halt gasoline imports from September 23 and start rationing gasoline supplies to motorists because of budget constraints, Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh said on Friday.

Parliamentarians in the OPEC producer approved a budget for the year to March 2007 that cut the amount to be spent on gasoline imports to $2.5 billion from $4 billion.

This meant President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's populist government, which draws its support from the poor, was faced with an unappetising choice of hiking petrol prices or rationing, both potential sources of social discontent.

What will you be driving in 10 years?

Perhaps a diesel hybrid, fuel cell or industrial-sized popcorn popper

One thing is for certain, though, the next 10 years to 15 years will change what we drive more dramatically than anything we have experienced during the past 50 years of automotive history.
Update [2006-6-23 9:36:19 by Leanan]: Ukraine Scrambling To Crisis Over Gas Supplies
MOSCOW — Ukraine is scurrying to form a government coalition and head off a gas crisis that could hit July 1, when its controversial supply deal with Russia expires.

Leaders of Orange Revolution factions announced Wednesday they had reached a last-minute coalition deal. But with just two days left to collect signatures before parliament must be dissolved, Turkmenistan announced it could cut off gas supplies.

On the U.S. political front...

3 Oil Firms May Alter Gulf Leases

Facing angry lawmakers from both political parties, executives from three major oil companies — Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron and ConocoPhillips — indicated on Wednesday that they might be willing to give up sizable taxpayer subsidies for drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

But one of the most active players in the gulf, the Kerr-McGee Corporation, showed no signs of compromise and told a House hearing that it was entitled to the subsidies — known as royalty relief — even if oil prices remained above $70 a barrel. And Exxon Mobil said it saw no reason for the subsidies to be changed.

Maybe that Cape Cod windfarm will be built after all: Lawmakers reach compromise on wind farm.

World Cup, Al Gore, go "carbon neutral."

Speaking of carbon... A Torrent of Darkness

“THE AIR WAS SO THICK that I thought I was choking,” she said. “The pollution was just unbelievable. All the locals wore surgical masks, and so did almost everyone in our group. I would get back to the hotel room and I had black lines of soot all over my face. I would cough up black phlegm all evening. I grew up in Pittsburgh in the 1950s and 1960s and I never saw anything like it before.” The speaker was a close acquaintance who visited China about two months ago.

And you can see streaming video of T. Boone Pickens on The Charlie Rose Show here.

Lehman Brothers says Oil and gas firms' spending accelerating. They were expecting it to increase 14.7%; instead, it's 21.3%. Not including Aramco.

The Saudis say they have foiled another attack: Saudi forces shoot dead six al-Qaida men.

Update [2006-6-23 12:58:47 by Leanan]: EPA report concludes 'boutique' fuels not the culprit in high gas prices.

"Boutique" gasoline blends to help states meet clean air rules are not a factor in higher prices as President Bush has suggested, says a draft of a study ordered by the White House.

...Facing growing public outrage over soaring gasoline prices, Bush ordered the study on April 25 in a speech in which he attributed high gas prices in part to the growth of special fuels.

It's not just gasoline: rising electricity rates are becoming an issue. In Maryland, the governor vetoed a utility relief plan. Consumers are facing a 72% rise in rates. In Pennsylvania, they are trying to deregulate without the price spikes Maryland is facing.
Interesting that the Iranian government would say that they are unable to pay for imported gasoline while crude prices are so high.  It would seem that the budget surplus from the high-than-predicted crude prices would be enough to pay for the higher gasoline price.

The interesting part is that an enbargo of gasoline exports to Iran has often been mentioned as a possible sanction if Iran does not stop enrichment.  Instead of a budget issue, a suspension of gasoline imports may be Iran's way to prepare for forced lower domestic consumption and a way to neutralize the threat as a negotiating tactic.

Good point. This would certainly seem to be a possibility.
Certainly a good move on the Ayatullahs' part! Go on the "diet" before anyone forces them to. This does a lot to reduce sanctions' effects if we go and do it up. A minor problem is pissing off those college grad kids who are waiting for some Westernism to get there. They want Westernism to some extent but the clerics don't.

Who knows? Maybe they might see the light in that just you wait for Mohommed to return but he will not. Kind of like Melanesians who set up airports waiting for us Americans to come back not understanding our logistical/economic system. (Melanesians are prone to "cargo cults" due to WW v.2.0)

Why all the doom gloom and threats?

Here is a reply I sent to a reply I received from Grey Zone on a different thread here...

I can tell by your name that you are cerebral. You read all of my posts? Could you not have stepped into the conversation sooner? If you noticed this site uses blog software and it is not suited well to involved conversations. It is difficult at best to reply and respond since the thread becomes fragmented.
Your comments are cleaver and I'll bet you have to work hard at being that cleaver? You commented that my plan is nonsense. Then you commented that I went off topic. Then you said that if I'm serious about my nonsense then nature's cull of Homo sapiens is an example of why humans will be culled. Mr. Grey Zone, I hope that you are able to locate help for your issues prior to the cull.

I can go off topic or choose to discuss topics that go in a lighter direction. Some may laugh and others may be too cerebral or clever. As it happens I had been talking with another member for some time and I decided to break the cold w/ warmth and a smile.

I don't know if you envy me or maybe you have a lot of pride but it has been a while since I have been called a useless parasite. Possibly that was a threat based on the words you elected to use. You believe that I would purge you or something like that.

You could point out to me the place I used the word 'purged' and then query me as to what I was talking about. Here is your comment, "If you come to "purge" me, be forewarned that I plan to purge useless parasites like you first."

"If you come" -this opens a conditional statement used to catch my attention since you are about to follow up with some dick waving.

"to "purge" me" -here you twist words that were never directed to you and conclude that when I say, "Purge" I am threatening you with death or punishment.

"be forewarned that I plan" -now you threaten me with a warning and state that you have a plan.

"to purge" -using this does two things. #1 It verifies that you feel that purge means murder, harm, kill and #2 it defines your plan.

"useless parasites like you" -in this you claim that my penis is smaller then yours in an attempt to induce me to take the bait.

"first" -(this is the best part) here you claim that after you kill me or dispense with me there are more people on your list to "purge" this shows that you are not stable at best and possibly a killer.

You have issues good luck with them!

My point is that we need a plan. The graphs and all are depressing. Here is how depressing PO is as people I don't know decide that threats will help things. I love debates but threatening to PURG me is not a plan. I read back over my posts to look at how I used "purge" and this is what I said...

I see it as fair that housing, food and energy for all would be free. Those that are determined to do as little as possible will not earn any credits. They will have the basics and not be lying in the streets. Over time this sort of lifestyle would be purged. The social issue of the day is that the middle class are disproportionately burdened by taxes and consumer prices.

No death threats at all. I called being lazy a lifestyle that would be purged. I didn't say or imply how. I simply assumed the lazy behavior would go away. I might be lazy today but tomorrow that feeling is replaced by the desire for a new pair of shoes... Cha ching PURGED

Grey Zone is frustrated. He does not like learning that we are like rats or mice on a wheel. He has become a doomer. There are many doomers these days...

  1. Weather Doomers
  2. PO Doomers
  3. Bible Doomers
  4. Disease Doomers
  5. Magnetic Reversal Doomers
  6. And on and on and on...

What is the point of worrying about spilled milk? If I want to survive I need hope. I need to see the threats. I need to make plans. I need to make alliances. I need to laugh, etc.

Come on in the sky is falling! Holly shit we are all gonna die... Well yea we are so what is your plan till we do? Will you purge me? Will you purge hope? We happen to be on a journey and we don't know exactly what will happen. As I said several times in that thread, "Tell me your plan or help me with mine!"

If you don't like graphs, this is not the site for you.  
 See this is communication. I commented that graphs are depressing. I didn't say they were not needed. Apparently you are showing me the door. Thanks, I'll be just dandy. I posted about how people act. I have a point of view as you do. You showed me the door but you didn't threaten to purge me off the site! When free speech becomes threats then anything can happen. The small part I mentioned about graphs is the least important part of my post.
PO Graphs are depressing. PO is depressing. Being threatened is depressing. And on and on!
GreyZone posted what set you off yesterday at what looks like just before he signed off, judging from the timeline of comments. You should let him respond to your response before progressing. Everybody should just relax.
LOL    I see your point and I'm not exactly shaking in my shoes about him purging me. Regardless, receiving threats of any sort for posts here or any place is uncalled for and morally repugnant. You may agree or disagree with me and/or the posts I make however you must agree that direct threats like this one are out of order. So rather than explaining this yesterday I rather just have it out here in the open today!

I was wrong and promptly admitted it comes to mind. As per graphs the people here have talents yet the results get more and more depressing. Suppose decline goes over 12% then we are at or off the cliff. Surely most of us will no longer have an internet connection and will not get to see the graphs any more. This is why I want to see plans now since it is all mixed together.

Frankly I have been reading this site for much longer than I have been posting on it. I don't remember my first visit here. PO is peaking frustration since the squeeze is on all of us. If I move too far down the doomer path then the point of attending this site becomes just as meaningless is I go too far down into denial.

My future wife and I sometimes watch the news and the propaganda is thick. Why are gas prices so high? Well it's the war you see. How many doomers does it take to change a light bulb? None, since the light is to blame! I have many doom moments too!

PAX

Are you even serious? Look, so far in that other thread you called for giving people free energy, free food, free healthcare, and then you say you will "purge" (YOUR CHOICE OF WORDS NOT MINE) anyone who does not go along with your program.

I can't even have a rational conversation with such a position. You are like a child demanding we all live in a fictional place like Middle Earth, sing kumbayah, and roast marshmallows around the campfire for the next billion years.

You do NOT have a plan. You have an irrational wishlist that has no relationship to reality, what homo sapiens is, and how we have behaved to date. If you think that demanding that we behave differently is going to make us change our behavior then you don't understand natural selection at all.

You are the one that used the word "purge" first. Don't get all sanctimonious with me when you started this. You are a Stalin-lite, full of nonsensical ideas and willing to "purge" people who don't cooperate. Well guess what? The rest of us may not roll over and let you "purge" us at all.

Free energy? Free food? Free healthcare? Who is going to provide all this? Oh... it's not really free is it? In other words, you are incapable of even using the English language clearly. You don't even know what you are saying. What you are really proposing is a system of quotas whereby everyone gets the same amount of such things (and the rich don't get to have more than the poor) but have you looked at history and why such utopian BS never works?

I see you waffling on your use of the word purged too. How are you going to make lazy lifestyles go away if someone else doesn't want to cooperate? What are you going to do, wish them into compliance with your new world order? How are you going to make people stop behaving in a way that you don't like? Answer that please.

Homo sapiens is a nasty species, especially compared to other mammals. It's precisely why we are at the top of the heap on this planet right now. It's why we are capable and willing to go to war and kill one another whereas most other mammals won't do such things. This is how we've been naturally selected, and any "plan" for the future that fails to account for what we are is no plan at all.

Issues? You are the one with issues. You are the one living in a total fantasy world. Good luck with your "plan" because I can guarantee that several billion others are not going to cooperate with such nonsense. Deal with that reality.

And my final comment yesterday still stands. TOD is a community focused on reality not fantasy. Bringing utopian fantasies here doesn't help solve anything.

Ah, the threatener/doomer has arrived! First go to that thread and copy and paste the offending "purge" comment that I made here so we can talk about it like adults.
Go do your own homework, Stalin. Don't order me around, Stalin.
I did and it is in the first post I made on this thread!
I'm still waiting
Listen fella you banter all sorts of BS here. You have no right to tell me what I can talk about and you have no right to stipulate what is or isn't allowed. Nothing gives you that right.

Back to the point show me the comment that says I will purge anyone who does not agree. Show me how I became a dictator while you're at it. I was under the impression there would be elections. Not only free homes fella homes that are efficient and yours till you die unless relocation becomes necessary as in eminent domain!

Show me the money honey!

And additionally, YOU are the one that brought up Mayan calendars, 4 angels, 144000 servants of god, the earth reversing its spin, and Bill Gates retiring as all "relevant" to this entire discussion.

Pseudo-mystical nonsense doesn't have a place here, thank you very much. The great strength of TOD has been in facts, data, and clear headed thinking, not in pseudo-mystical nonsense.

Still waiting
Then you are going to wait a damned long time.
No. You can't show it since it is not something I said. You used it as a threat and that is the point of this post! You have made yourself a liar!
I don't know who said what and why and when. And how and under which circumstances and what have you. I don't know.

But I do know that every time I see two grown up guys getting into an argument here, they must be americans.

Never see a Swede beating up a Chinaman, or vice versa. Or a guy from paris doing a block-block-jab on a guy from Brazil.

This is not high school. You can't bully your way around.

Can you guys go back to the way mom told you? Even in the blog world, it's no good all this shouting. If you would rase your voice to your neighbor like this, he would call the police. Or the Sherif, if you are from Texas ;-)

(The last line is a joke. Don't shoot me, I am unarmed and I have no WMD. No oil either ;-)

How many times do you go online and get your safety or life threatened on TOD??
Alpha Omega,

To tell you the truth, I don't think anybody has ever treatened me in my whole life.

Feel free to scroll up and read the entire post from the point I started here today. He twisted the meaning around rather than debate it if he had a doubt. Purge or purged are only words. This guy makes the case for why we have laws. I get threatened for a word. The name calling on his part is fine but threats are another matter!
AlphaOmega/Whoever...

Do you have to sling playground persiflage back and forth here on the valuable real estate of TOD?  Can't you take this somewhere else please?

-C.

although persiflage is probably not the best word to describe it as you two are not softly teasing each other :-/
Netiquette Rule #7


But Netiquette does forbid the perpetuation of flame wars -- series of angry letters, most of them from two or three people directed toward each other, that can dominate the tone and destroy the camaraderie of a discussion group. It's unfair to the other members of the group. And while flame wars can initially be amusing, they get boring very quickly to people who aren't involved in them. They're an unfair monopolization of bandwidth.

Please be kind and rewind.

-C.

I'm pretty much the only one talking Bradshaw. The other fella said I would be waiting a long time. I posted the facts and we shall see what we see.
Let me ask you this...
Suppose you're online and Greyzone traces your IP and manages to find out information about you (location, time zone, sex, age, name, street address, work address). At some point this person threatens you in such a way that you are not completely sure if you or your family are SAFE any longer. You don't know what Greyzone knows regarding networks, weapons, etc.
What would you do?
I would ignore him.  I recommend you do the same.  It's the best way to deal with people you can't get along with online.
99% of the time that would be the case. I'm pretty sure I was physically threatened and I leave this in the hands of TPTB here @ TOD to determine. I wanted to give Greyzone the opportunity to retract that comment. He did not and thickened the gravy instead. So yes it is wise to ignore such an ass I can't help but feel chased away from a thing that I like. He has a blog and I don't go to it or threaten him! I have not threatened him as far as I can see.
You weren't threatened.  Lighten up and move on.  We'll all be happier if you do.  

And ask yourself if you are really contributing anything to this "thing that you like" by continuing this.

He did threaten me! Is he going to purge me? I doubt it!
Leanan how is this:
You give me a block/iggy button and that is no issue!
You give me a block/iggy button and that is no issue!

I wish I could.  Believe you me, I would be making use of such a function myself, if it existed.

You can try PeakOil.com.  They have an Ignore function there.

Your sweet! XXX
You're right, you should unplug right now.

Are you serious?  Seriously, you should just move off topic... post about something else... and get on with your day.

I'm going to lunch, Hey Greyzone, see if you can back trace my IP, I'm spoofing trough 4 IPs right now see if you can geo-target me :)

-C.

Why would I want to waste time tracing your IP? Or the IP of AlphaOmega? I never once suggested I would do such. End-of-the-world-Mayan-calendar boy here said that. Go argue with him about crazy scenarios he wants to concoct in his addled brain.
GreyZone, I was joking... relax, enjoy your weekend :)
I think we could measure how close we are to Peak Oil by the increase of insanity and paranoia in the general population.
would you like me to chart that for you?  provide some data sir and I will post an image shortly :-)
OK...first data point.

(scale of 1-10; 1 not at all and 10 totally)

Pre-2001:
     Insane   Paranoid
Me -  2          1

Current Day:
     Insane   Paranoid
Me -    8        3

Who's next?
You asked for it, you got it.  Toyota?

-C.