DrumBeat: June 28, 2006
Posted by threadbot on June 28, 2006 - 9:25am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Update [2006-6-28 9:48:48 by Leanan]: Data released from MEES today show OPEC production still declining from October's high.
OPEC oil production in May fell 105,000 b/d to 29.345mn b/d from a revised April figure of 29.45mn b/d after Saudi Arabia’s April production was adjusted down to 9.1mn b/d for that month. Total OPEC output fell on a decline in Iraqi production as well as lower Saudi and Iranian oil exports in the month (MEES, 19 June). Production by the OPEC-10 (OPEC without Iraq) was up 75,000 b/d at 27.445mn b/d from a revised 27.37mn b/d in April, well below the 28mn b/d ceiling that has been in place since 1 July 2005. The May estimates have seen Saudi Arabia fall below its quota for the first time since late 1998 as it responds to lower refiner demand for its heavy crude, while Iran has unusually posted two straight months of relatively low exports. Iranian production comprised 2.145mn b/d of exports with deliveries to refineries at 1.5mn b/d.
Update [2006-6-28 9:55:19 by Leanan]: Ukrainians protest over gas hike
Tens of thousands of people have protested in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, against plans to sharply raise gas and electricity prices.In Jamaica: Consumers feeling the energy squeezeA BBC correspondent in Kiev said the protests were as big as those during the 2004 Orange Revolution, which swept President Viktor Yushchenko to power.
Nigerian oil dispute flares into full-scale revolt
"If Shell never comes back, we would have lost nothing," says Young Kigbara, a member of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People, surveying the pungent pool of oil and an abandoned pumping station nearby."We are better off without oil production."
http://richardgilbert.ca/Files/2006/Hamilton,%20The%20Electric%20City%20(Web).pdf
Electric cars with batteries produce more waste. The reason I brought this up is that my wife and I are debating the pros and cons of living car free, investigating alternatives, the main reason being that our current car is a gas guzzler and sits in the driveway most of the time as I ride my bike to work and we live in a community that we can easily get around without a car. I have been reading about fuel alternatives and different types of vehicles on TOD but I believe there are no alternatives and in the long term we must all use less.
Wrong !
A combination of the below (depending upon the urban area).
- Subways or Elevated Rapid Rail
- Light Rail
- Electric Commuter Rail (See Long Island Railroad)
- Streetcars/Trams
- Electric trolley buses
And personal bicycles/tricycles (some with electric assist) with shoe leather.Use the roofs of shelters at stops for PV + landfill gas should fill most of the transportation power requirements in most cities. Add a few wind turbines on the edge of town dedicated to transportation and battery banks (not economic for gtid, but OK for high value transportation).
Two Union Pacific engines use the latest in sustainable technology
By JIM REDDEN Issue date: Tue, Jun 27, 2006
The Tribune
http://portlandtribune.com/archview.cgi?id=35940
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Two of the largest hybrid vehicles in the world are now in Portland --
280,000-pound, 52-foot diesel/electric locomotives owned and operated by
Union Pacific Railroad....
for the last 6+ years I've been pedaling cargo trikes here in Minneapolis, MN -- year-round, hauling 200 to 500 pounds of tools and supplies daily.
I do not suggest that everyone must do the same thing. I do suggest that if we increase our pedestrian/bike/workbike share of urban transport to 10 or 20 percent of total trips, we would do more to solve our energy crisis than by making new fuels for cars or new cars to run on new fuels.
We need to meter out our energy to redesign our lives carefully. I suspect that we will need a fair amount of energy to transform our urban areas into "continuously productive landscapes -- to grow food locally. Creating transit infrastructure will also require energy and focus.
Meanwhile, I urge folks to walk or pedal for those trips under six miles or so, as much as possible.
Full disclosure: my wife drives a Honda Civic hybrid -- making an effort to drive as little as possible even so. We've been carfree before (with two kids) and I hope we can be again -- maybe soon!
The Sensible Utility Vehicles can be seen here:
http://organicengines.com/
The latest article/book review I've seen on the notion of redesigning urban landscapes to grow food is here:
http://www.energybulletin.net/17603.html
At any rate, the changes we need are really quite radical. I suggest that getting bike/ped share of urban transportation up to 10 or 20 percent is the most effective single step we can make at this time.
-- pedaling for peace and ecojustice -- Gary (beggar)
Step #4 of my "10% reduction in US Oil Use" was encouraging more bicycling.
The plan that everyone accepted (A Public Works engineer & I designed) and the Mayor was going to announce (45 days after Katrina) as a cornerstone of his re-election campaign was to rebuild North Rampart Street as a city roads project.
Widen neutral ground (median) from 20' to 36', put scenic streetcar (old 3 light poles on either side of grass running tracks with ctpress trees), go from 2 traffic lanes on each side to 1 traffic lane + 1 bicycle lane. Add bicycle parking on street.
Also, I know that the life expectency of "bicycle rickshaw pullers" in India is significantly lower than their population peer cohort. Would that represent a counter to the additional food required?
of the benefits and myths involved:
http://www.nealhendrickson.com/mcdougall/030900puathletesarepeopletoo.htm
And speaking specifically to cycling, carbohydrates are what is needed for endurance. The differences in fatigue time is astounding - comparing a meaty diet Vs. a complex carb one (this is well references in a great book called "With the Grain" by a female author named Brown. Unfortunately it is OOP and I'm not sure where the references are, and I'm too lazy to find them :) Regardless, the link above applies to cycling too.
This looks like a reasonable first cut on efficiency:
http://constructal.blogspot.com/2006/03/whats-mileage-on-that-bicycle.html
Jim
http://todd.cleverchimp.com/blog/?p=125
It might be that an electric bike beats some diets, but some diets beat an electric bike.
If the food is available, eating more, and burning more, is a closer match to our pre-agricultural roots:
PDF article
I will buy those figures. Though the issue I raised about the life expectancy, is probably also relevant. Post peak, I expect the standard of living, quality of life, and the quality of diet to significantly reduce. Under these conditions, hard physical labour (approximating that of an Indian rickshaw puller) would definitely bring down the life expectancy of individuals -- that should have an impact on the total energy used, and the total impact of an individual on the planet.
Congrats. What an inspiration. 200 lbs was about the max I ever worked with on my working bikes and I started backing off from that after age 30. The Sensible Utility Vehicle is a beautifully developed work of art. A beautiful tool. Everybody visit organicengines.com.
I was out working all day -- just got back. I worked on replacing a threshold of a door, did some tuckpointing, masonry crack sealing, and also put some insulative foam in places in an old house belonging to some clients a couple of miles away.
I hauled all the tools, including a ladder, and the mortar and other supplies -- plus lunch! -- on the trike. It was a beautiful day!
Some very fine comments on the need to integrate transit and walking and biking.
Also good comments on diet and exercise! I've read that some of the pedicabbers in India and other third world countries do not get an adequate diet, but also guess that other health concerns may enter in as well.
I do get plenty of food for fuel and nutrition. I am more concerned about getting adequate food in a few years as peak oil meets so many other world-shaping trends -- climate change and a variety of resource shortages and shifts, along with resource wars and shifts in geopolitical power.
I hope to pedal my trike through it all.
I try to get back to post as much as possible -- but what great comments while I was out and about! No laptop on my trike yet.
-- resting from a very full day! -- Gary (Beggar)
with 30 pounds of groceries in the front basket. I just got the bike a month ago. It's fun to see what I can do with it. Handled the 30 pounds without complaining. Rated for about 50 pounds in the front & 75 in the back. I've got the 8 speed Shimano Nexus hub - with enough weight, even the little hills between Safeway and my apartment will out-torque what I can apply at the pedals. I'm a long way from that yet, though!
http://www.dutchbikes.us/
I'm not sure what they have in stock. I had to wait about ten weeks for the container ship to cross the Atlantic, etc. It's a solid bike, though - I measured 60 pounds. That's steel.
Jul 2005 9,520
Aug 2005 9,550
Sep 2005 9,550
Oct 2005 9,520
Nov 2005 9,500
Dec 2005 9,480
Jan 2006 9,450
Feb 2006 9,450
Mar 2006 9,450
Apr 2006 9,100
May 2006 9,050
Notice the drop starting Apr 2006.
Rick
Let's consider the four largest producing oil fields in the world.
The only real question is Ghawar, but given the drop in production in SA and given the 8% decline in existing fields that the Saudis admitted to, it seems highly likely that Ghawar is almost certainly declining. The other three largest fields--Cantarell; Burgan and Daqing--are all declining.
IMO, we are going to see a series of bidding/demand destruction cycles for declining net oil export capacity. I predict that we will see: (1) a decline in net exports; (2) a price increase as available exports are allocated to the high bidders; (3) followed by demand destruction among the low bidders. And the cycle repeats again. I think that we just finished one bidding/demand destruction cycle, and we are just now starting on another one.
So a fall in production at this point doesn't signal too much, IMO.
Saudi says crude is flowing freely
That's the real "rub" isn't it. Yes, Saudi is doing everything it can with regard to pumping more of the heavy crude... but that doesn't help if there are no refineries to process it.
-C.
Q: How can you tell that the Saudis are lying?
A: Their lips are moving.
-C.
Saudi dropped over 400,000 bpd, while Kuwait is up about 20, Russia, Norway, Nigeria, Mexico etc seem to keep selling all they can produce without any drop (except depletion-related for Norway/Mex) or with small increases. Iraq is bragging about increasing production, for which I suppose they have a market. If there is no demand why isn't Saudi asking OPEC to return to quotas instead of having lost full tankers wandering the ocean for a buyer (violins please)?
Something isn't adding up here, although there does appear to be abundant supply based on storage statistics. This isn't how the world responds to a global oil supply surplus (as in "lets keep prices really high but stop buying SAUDI oil."
feeding off this comment
Something isn't adding up here, although there does appear to be abundant supply based on storage statistics. This isn't how the world responds to a global oil supply surplus (as in "lets keep prices really high but stop buying SAUDI oil.
I give you:
Saudi cut shows record oil defies market logic
-C.
Again, this is unprecedented and completely at odds with any prior behavior or approach they have ever taken. Saudi is in the business of producing and selling oil, not "daring" to not sell it. Besides, they also keep voicing concern that the price is too high.
Extacts from Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister comments 3 weeks ago:
"In an interview after a meeting here of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi said other cartel members are having trouble finding buyers for all the crude they are producing,..."
"It's not just heavy oil. Even light oil is having problems" finding buyers, Mr. Naimi said..."
Sounds like SA is having trouble meeting demand on all grades.