DrumBeat: July 13, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 13, 2006 - 9:25am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil hits new high as Mideast violence escalates
LONDON - Oil prices hit a new intraday high near $76 a barrel Thursday in a market agitated by escalating violence in the Middle East and news of explosions on Nigerian pipelines.[Update by Leanan on 07/13/06 at 11:35 AM EDT]...“Geopolitics, the markets, Iran and Iraq and Lebanon, all that turmoil is in the front of people’s minds and the tension in the region gets the most attention,” said Kevin Norrish, energy analyst for Barclays Capital in London.
“But, it’s also due to the spare capacity in the region, and we’ve known about this for a while now. It’s difficult to replace lost output right now,” Norrish said.
It's officially Daniel Yergin Day.
[Update by Leanan on 07/13/06 at 3:48 PM EDT]
YENAGOA, Nigeria - Twin explosions hit oil installations belonging to an Italian oil company in Nigeria's volatile southeastern delta region, officials said Thursday.Leaders gather in Turkey to inaugurate strategic BTC pipelineOfficials suspected sabotage in the explosions Wednesday along two Agip pipelines in Baleysa state.
One of the blasts blew apart an 18-inch oil pipeline at the Clough Creek Tepidapa flow station, and heavy spillage was reported, said Dikivie Ekiogha, an oil industry adviser to the local state governor. A second blast hit a 10-inch riverside pipeline the same day in Lagoagbene.
The four-billion-dollar (3.145-billion-euro) conduit will carry oil from the Caspian Sea fields, the world's third largest reserve, to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.The route bypasses Russia's energy web, as well as US foe Iran, and is seen as easing Western reliance on Middle East crude supplies.
Business Week's version of the Citgo story has this interesting bit:
The impact on affected Citgo-branded stations will depend a lot on local market conditions, said John Eichberger, director of motor fuels at the National Association of Convenience Stores, a trade group that represents independently owned gas stations.Station owners in competitive markets shouldn't have any problem finding a new supplier who offers them comparable contract terms and may even cover the costs of installing new signs and canopies, Eichberger said. But those selling gasoline in more remote areas will presumably have fewer good options.
One alternative is to shun the major gasoline brands altogether and purchase fuel from an independent distributor. "Unbranded stations typically get a better price at wholesale," Eichberger said. "But the inherent risk is you lose your spot in the pecking order in getting product if there's a shortage."
Meanwhile, Venezuela's Oil Sales to U.S. Drop as Chavez Sends More to Asia
From Tom Whipple: Independence Day 2006 – America's last fling?
The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community
By what name will future generations know our time?Will they speak in anger and frustration of the time of the Great Unraveling, when profligate consumption exceeded Earth’s capacity to sustain and led to an accelerating wave of collapsing environmental systems, violent competition for what remained of the planet’s resources, and a dramatic dieback of the human population? Or will they look back in joyful celebration on the time of the Great Turning, when their forebears embraced the higher-order potential of their human nature, turned crisis into opportunity, and learned to live in creative partnership with one another and Earth?
It’s Corn vs. Soybeans in a Biofuels Debate
The hack-a-hybrid kit: For 'hybrid hackers' selling plug-in kits for the Prius, high gas prices add up to a big opportunity.
Be green - everybody's doing it. Politicians, big business, moms and pops - the national conversation is picking up steam.
A hundred thousand points of light
The rooftop wind turbine has become a must-have accessory for David Cameron, for energy minister Malcolm Wicks, and for a queue of celebrities eager to mount a very public display of their green credentials. It’s a welcome symbol of a rapidly growing interest in small-scale, sustainable energy.But while rooftop gestures gather pace, politicians are still failing to ignite the genuinely transformative potential of an energy system based on small-scale, distributed power. Far removed from our present, antiquated grid system, we could call such a system Grid 2.0.
[Update by Leanan on 07/13/06 at 9:51 AM EDT]
Why coal-rich US is seeing record imports. Apparently, because we have lots of coal, but not lots of clean coal.
Petrobras has discovered oil. No word yet on the size of the new discovery.
Antarctica at risk over oil, says Bakhtiari.
'Global fear' over energy plans
G8 call for more oil output won't help poor: report
In Canada, conservation is not enough. Study: Energy efficiency won't curb soaring electricity demand
In the U.K., The cul-de-sac comes to a dead end, because "cul-de-sacs often cause people to make long detours to reach shops and schools, encouraging them to travel by car."
One size does not fit all. Below is a ranking of transit solutions ranked by density. What is the most economic solution for a given transportation corridor ?
I prefer to use "tennysons" in ranking. This is the total number of pax past any given point in a day or week, averaged over every point on the line.
There is overlap and "grey" areas for all below, but this ranking is a consensus.
This is something we will probably eventually get on First and Second Avenues, once the city DOT gets moving...
The best two subway corridors left in the US without subways are NYC 2nd Avenue and LA's Wilshire. Wilshire, in theory, could possibly support 4 track subway. But they got "BRT". Orange colored buses (instead of red) that skip ~2/3rds of the bus stops but otherwise just grind through heavy traffic.
OTOH, the southwest terminus of Miami MetroRail (built on an old RR ROW) dumps pax onto a private 2 lane busway (only public vehicles can use it, no private cars allowed) built further SW on the same old RR ROW.
Both are BRT according to the feds. And both serve too high a traffic density for buses IMO.
IMO, any transit corridor with enough traffic to justify BRT can also jusrify electric trolley buses (with or without hybrid or auxilary diesels).
That is why I did not put down BRT as a seperate option. I see it as a subset of electric trolley buses in an ideal world.
Which city are you refering with with 1st & 2nd Avenue ? NYC ?
NYC Manhatten 1st & 2nd Avenue would be better served with multiple unit streetcars on the surface (exception to overhead wire ban) and a subway underneath. I would put the streetcars in street but on a rough surface that "induces" cars to pick another, smoother lane. Thus some, but less traffic in streetcar lane.
People don't like the idea of wires ruining their views or streetscapes...remember all our electrical wires are underground here.
So BRT is really our best option to start with. At least it establishes a ROW for mass transit on city streets which will hopefully calm the rest of the automobile traffic. Later this ROW could be easily electrified when popular support builds...
Trolley wire can be done in a way that is quite nice, even beautiful, but that will be later. One first step might be Roosevelt Island. Up & down the island with a connector to Queens. A bit too small a population but Ok for a demo.
As for "calming Manhatten streets", GOOD LUCK !!
what do you know of rail systems in the Springfield, MO area? I see on google maps they have several tracks but I have no clue what they're used for.
This is one of the locations I'm thinking of relocating to.
Kind Regards,
-C.
I really know very little of that city, sorry.
Springfield is well-served by BNSF. There are main lines through there, not likely to be abandoned. Good choice! (I consulted my husband, who is a railhead)
I think we're leaning towards Sprinfield, MO. We're all excited to be moving away from here (Houston, TX area). I grew up in the Ozarks...what a beautiful place it is :)
-C.
You must really enjoy the humidity.
Speaking of humidity.....
Here in the Asphalt Wonderland of the Valley of the Sun: the heat island effect plus global warming is making Phx very hot and dry this year. This low relative humidity [currently 14% and dewpoint at 50 degrees, projected high today of 113 F] makes for an effective and long swamp cooling season.
Yet most Phx businesses and homeowners are not willing to convert over to swamp-cooling to take advantage of the tremendous energy savings [a fraction of A/C costs]. This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Phoenicians were legislatively compelled to have both cooling sytems on their buildings, we could dramatically reduce electrical usage and GHGs, partially reduce our summer smog warning days, and then profitably sell this excess energy over the national grid to the high-humidity Southern areas.
When I take trips down into Mexico, many people do not even have swamp-cooling, much less A/C, yet they are perfectly acclimated to this lifestyle. They will work in the sun and much higher humidity than Phx all day for $6/day, then go home to an uncooled house. Wiping the sweat off one's brow and drinking lots of water is entirely doable, and has been done for uncounted years before the advent of the industrial age.
This is the appropriate future model for Phx, yet I see no effort by our local leaders to gradually shift us to this lifestyle, starting with mandatory swamp-cooling. My emails to the city council go ignored, yet presenting an early, but modest lifestyle shift is the best way to prepare Phoenicians for the postPeak future. Additionally, many wealthy locals would choose to relocate elsewhere, freeing up much land that could be converted over to humanure and permaculture farming.
Most of the time, I feel like an Easter Islander warning people not to cut down that last stand of trees. Unless the American mindset changes soon, I really believe most Americans will gladly ship off their children to die on foreign shores so that they can misguidedly mourn in thermally controlled comfort. Time will tell if we are so greedy that not only will we wreck their future habitats, but we will also prevent their chance to live in the mess.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
did you take into account the extra electricity needed to help manufacture those swamp coolers from raw resources( for example all the way to extracting the iron ore or boxite from the ground and not starting at the point of manufacture of the unit which some alt energy 'solutions' start their calculations) to installation and maintenance?
also did you account for the extra watter usage the swamp coolers will add to the city?
your original plan of just abandoning the city to the desert sounds better.
Thxs for responding. If everyone in Phx switched to swamp, the water evaporated to cool the inside of the buildings would be much less than our current usage on our numerous golf courses or our incredibly plentiful carwashes.
A swampcooler takes a fraction of the energy to manufacture compared to an A/C unit, and is a similar fraction of the cost, and many people in Phx already upgrade their A/C units to a higher SEER when the economics makes it worthwhile. So, the financial outlay required for a swamp is a no-brainer.
A properly tuned swamp will only require a water bleedoff of a few gallons a day to help reduce hard water buildup and prevent water stagnation--most people waste much more water than this by stupidly running the bathroom tap while they brush their teeth. This water can be routed to outside landscaping or a garden versus the standard practice of most A/C units routing their condensation to the sewer.
Maintenance can be easily done by the homeowner, it basically requires periodically changing the pads--no more difficult than changing an A/C air filter except you must go up on the roof. My swamp is an advanced design and I only replace the pads about every five years when the hard water buildup becomes excessive. I yearly oil the motor and the squirrel cage bearings, check the v-belt and small water pump, turn on the water flow, remove the insulated cutoff panel and upduct panels, then I am good to go.
When winter comes, I re-insert the panels, shutoff the water, drain the resevoir, and flip off the thermostatic control in the house. Piece of cake.
Compare this with the specialized hi-voltage training, knowledge of electronic and mechanicals controls, and all the fancy tools required to be a licensed, certified A/C technician. When a Phx homeowner's air conditioning unit breaks down here during the summer--they really get hot under the collar when presented with a legitmate bill!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I try to live in places where you don't use AC.
It will be a heavy, heavy lift politically, but even the major business groups are realizing that we have to change the paradigm when it comes to cars and trucks. The present situation is not really functional in many areas and curbed economic activity. The bomb waiting to drop is congestion pricing. Popular opinion is somewhat against it as a stand alone proposal, but I think that if it is integrated with an array of alternative transit options like subways, bike lanes, BRT and maybe residential parking or something, it could gain broader support. But it will take leadership from the top and pressure from the bottom!
I do think eventually the BRTs will transform into electric rail or electric buses.
The report I have made for my master degree is picking up attention here from local official. It helps that I keep talking to them about it!
What I wanted to tell you is that I have made a systemic solution diagram for the systemic problem that will occur (or is occuring) regarding to Peak oil.
For the transportation segment, I have put thow things :
1. Biodiesel from algea
2. Train, electric light rail for people and goods
Because my planing is made on the assumption that whatever goes on, it will be profitable, it is really picking up interest.
In a nearby town, there was a plan called "Agenda 21" that miserably failled to bring a new vision in the way we live. I was asked to change a wee bit my solution diagram in order to bring that new vision for the whole county.
I will meet the mayor of that town next week and there is a good opportunity for me to work full time on bringing the change needed.
The local development center has even given me some funds to print about 50 copies of my report on oil economics decline (french) to give to some official and leaders.
Regarding food production, we have started a community organic garden, with the land and some working freely given by the city. Roberval's city council is understanding very well the problem and helpful. Funding for starting will be obtained from local social economy funds. The garden will be a project under the Not for profit organisation called "Hymnuniterre" a pun meaning lots of good things. Anyway, this project will start this autumn and a biointensive gardening course will be given by the adult school.
As for funding and money exchange, I have started a plan for implementing a local (county) currency based on the Salt Spring Dollar. I have already gained backing from local credit union and one bank, others will follow.
The only thing I havent had the time to start is the website. I plan to do it in french with an english part. Right now, I teach my secretary to start the web site.
We will let you all informed on future developments
Pascal
I just want to let you know that I personally appreciate all you do to promote mass transit. As a regular rail rider here in New Jersey, I am fully cognizant, as you are, of the absolute necessity to expand rail transit whereever we can, especially as the age of cheap oil comes to an end. Please continue your fine work - I always look forward to your contributions here in TOD.
Erwin
Headline: Gas giveaway fuels frenzy in Milwaukee
The Associated Press
MILWAUKEE (Jul 13, 2006)
There were two car crashes and four people arrested in excitement over a gasoline giveaway yesterday to reward the city for its safe-driving record.
For the most part, hundreds of drivers waited patiently for hours for about $30 US worth of free gasoline each that Allstate Insurance provided at one station.
However, some motorists started lining up before midnight and the queue stretched far from the station into a residential area, trapping some residents in their driveways, said police spokeswoman Anne Schwartz.
That led to fights and arrests for disorderly conduct.
In one case, three officers were sent to a hospital as a precaution because they were spattered with blood from someone's bloodied nose, Schwartz said.
The two crashes apparently occurred when queued-up motorists tried to let friends into line, Schwartz said.
"Any time you offer free gas when it is $3 a gallon, it is not surprising people would get excited," she said.
Allstate gave away a tanker truck load of gasoline as a reward to Milwaukee for ranking No. 1 among mid-sized cities on its safe drivers list.
Specifically:
I betcha, somewhere else in this long DrumBeat, someone will say "we aren't doing anything!"
Cornucopians declared a years ago that peak oil would not even be a speedbump on the highway of progress. Doomers declared years ago that peak oil is a cliff at the end of that highway.
... I guess I'm glad I'm not calcified. I'm glad that I can see a 30% humand response as ... cautiously ... a huge societal movement. A huge change from the seeming "frog in hot water" condition of two years ago.
Likewise, all of us living today were born and raised in a period of human overshoot so we don't recognize it as the danger signal that perhaps we should. There is NO solution to this short of finding several more earths or a massive reduction in population. Since the former is extremely unlikely, the latter is the probable result of our population overshoot.
Everything that we do short of reducing the population amounts to re-arranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic. I am aware that you do not believe this but as I said, being born and raised inside the context of an overshoot event, it's not likely that you would believe it until it occurs. Thus, I don't see my position as "calcified" but as the result of careful consideration of the observable facts surrounding our population, our resulting resource consumption, and our resulting impact on the environment.
I would be thrilled if we found a technological solution to all this that gave us more energy, cleaned up the environment, and allowed us to feed 7+ billion people in a sustainable manner. But it's extremely unlikely to occur.
So yes, I am pleased that people have moved to the end of the ship still sticking out of the cold waters. But does anybody have a life jacket? ;)
Not enough, and it will require a SLOW sinking of the Titanic to get anything done, but I trying to create a solution.
Personally, I prefer 'Polishing the silver on the Hindenburg' myself.