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DrumBeat: July 14, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 14, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil prices strike record high above $78 per barrel
"We are certainly in uncharted territory," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "I wouldn't be surprised if $80 is attained soon with this slew of geopolitical events in a tight market."..."We haven't even taken into account a potential hurricane in the United States, so getting to $80 and beyond this summer seems quite inevitable," Shum said. "But if these Middle East events somehow get resolved, prices could also drop sharply."
Can't make the trip to Italy for ASPO-5? Check out the ASPO-5 Live Blog.
See the new and improved version of Westexas' article about Daniel Yergin Day at Energy Bulletin.
An Early Retirement For The Hydrogen Fuel Cell:
At last weekends Lucerne Fuel Cell Conference, which is a highly respected technical conference, Ulf Bossel, the organizer, made a pretty signinficant announcement: the European PEMFC Forum series will not be continued because hydrogen fuel will never contribute to a sustainable world. Instead they will focus on phosphoric acid fuel cells, molten carbonate fuel cells and solid oxide fuel cells which "can meet the challenges of a sustainable future".
Supermarkets and Service Stations Now Competing for Grain, according to Lester Brown.
China to allow foreign exploration in key oil, gas blocks:
China has traditionally limited foreign access to its onshore oil and gas resources but as demand for energy to power its booming economy has grown, it has opened the door and in March Petrochina signed a deal with Total of France on exploration in the Erdos Basin.Will new pipeline ease the West's energy woes?
The 1,094-mile Caspian oil duct, inaugurated Thursday in Turkey, may not be as tangle-free as America had hoped...."Increasingly, Russia is dictating its terms," says Necdet Pamir, an energy expert with the Eurasia Strategic Research Center in Ankara.
A Russian monster arrives, and its name is Rosneft.
Pentagon and Peak Oil: A Military Literature Review
Uganda: Power Outages Fueling City Fires
President Clinton says he was never briefed on peak oil.
Santa Barbara Prepares for Peak Oil
Dreamliners and Peak Oil - designing airplanes for energy efficiency.
Peak Oil and Energy Resources - a ten-minute intro to peak oil.
3 ways to win from the oil glut:
Believe it or not, there's an excess of oil -- but it's an excess of hard-to-refine heavy sour crude.
Following is a post I made yesterday. I am beginning to wonder if oil exporters are going to increasingly turn away from the US market in favor of exporting their oil to importers that have better quality and/or lower cost goods and services to offer in exchange for oil.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=latin_america&sid=a_H7VhJXt_6I
Venezuela's Oil Sales to U.S. Drop as Chavez Sends More to Asia
The Venezuela story is (mostly) not related to my Export Land model, but there are three points:
(1) It does raise the question of whether oil, in a declining net export capacity environment, is truly fungible;
(2) Note that Chavez is transporting his oil seven times farther than the distance to the US Gulf Coast. This effectively reduces net export capacity because of the greater amount of oil locked up in transit;
(3) Combined with gas station story, it makes one wonder if Chavez is gradually withdrawing from the US market. Given China's low cost manufacturing capability, if I were Chavez I would prefer to trade with China, versus the US, even with the higher transportation cost.
Good question. I've asked TOD before how much oil is traded on the spot market (as opposed to fixed price long term contract) but no-one seems to know. Chavez also has his Petro-Caribe initiative which offers oil to Caribbean nations at less than (market) cost. I think you're right, this trend will accelerate.
My continuing advice: ELP (Economize; Localize; Produce).
I very strongly suggest that you get yourself on the nondiscretionary side of the US economy ASAP.
The difference is of course that Westexas' advice will actually help you.
- a 19th century style trading post
- an 18th century style tavern
These are what I have, up and running--and even legal!From friends and family, I already have plenty of customers.
My most lucrative business is consulting about survival supplies.
e.g., I can provide a $100 package for college students, a $1,000 package for young couples and all the way up to the "Fortress Package" at $300,000.
- What a person already has and knows.
- What is most needed.
- What will be of value no matter what happens.
I offer money-back guarantees.Since 1962, nobody has ever asked for their money back. Also during and before, nobody has asked.
I do it because I like people, and I make no money at it that I do not give to the Nature Conservancy.
The only boat builder in history who finished on time.
A major reason that the offical US WW II museum is a mile from my home on Andrew J. Higgins Blvd..
To insure adequate materials in case of war, he bought the entire 1941 Phillipines mahogany harvest. All of which ended up on various invasion beaches.
A major reason that the offical US WW II museum is a mile from my home on Andrew J. Higgins Blvd..
This was a quote, by a disgruntled grocery shopper, shown on CNBC this morning. She said that if you go into a Safeway with a $100 bill, you come out with $20 worth of groceries. She then said that "Something's gotta be done."
We will see similar interviews with consumers in front of gas pumps--"Something's gotta be done."
The epic paradigm shift that we are witnessing is American consumers' very gradually dawning realization that the days of cheap food and energy are fading away. They are not going to be happy campers, and they are going to demand that politicians do something to bring back cheap food and cheap gasoline. I suppose that a first step would be for Congress to repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics.
I guess I'm suggesting "eating lower on the food chain" in two senses of the phrase.
Shop the specials.
That is what I do.
Meat is cheap and getting cheaper.
Speaking of military involvement, how about a US naval ship docked in the Black Sea port of Feodosia setting off demonstrations, then riots, then a blockade with anti-NATO Russian seperatists discovering onshore US weaponry [if purportedly to be used in upcoming seaborne exercises--why unload it offshore]?
http://en.rian.ru/world/20060608/49231209.html
Does anyone think the G8 does not have a lot to discuss?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
- cancel Star Wars anti-missile systems
- don't build the next generation Raptor airplanes.
- close most of the 700 offshore military bases
- quit pushing corporate globalization agendas
- quit pulling our winkies over gay marriage and abortion rights and immigration
- quit listening to lobbyists from K street and listen to constituents
- quit subsidizing corn
- etc... etc... etc...
Sometimes I feel like Herbert Hoover is in office and we are waiting for the "market" to make things right.Not going to happen.
- A return to classic 'class warfare' economic politics by the left.
- An ever more strident effort by the right to focus on 'cultural' issues to fob off growing economic discontent.
This means in the US:A. Further political polarization.
B. Purge of moderates from both US political parties.
C. Increasing institutional dysfunction and gridlock.
D. Increasing search for 'extra-constitutional' solutions by whichever party controls the Presidency.
http://tinyurl.com/nmu3n
"In Broward County [Ft. Lauderdale area], foreclosures were up in the first quarter over the end of last year by 57 percent. In Palm Beach, they jumped 69 percent, and in Miami-Dade, they were up 17 percent.
Overall, South Florida had about 3,000 more foreclosures than at the end of 2005 -- a jump of 40 percent."
The ARMs with no money down are coming home to roost.
When reality sets in, people in the camp that magic will fix everything, may wake up and say to themselves,"what the f**k?, there no wizard behind the curtain, after all". And when people realize that the SRIHTF, what will they do? In the short run, we will see an even greater effort to make sure we are drilling everywhere all the time.
All things considered, however, I've gotta go with reality. Reality tends to make you invest in things that actually have some hope of doing something useful. It's good to see that someone finally had the courage to stand up and point out that the hydrogen emperor, "our hope for the future", has no clothes.
... I do wish conservation and efficiency had as strong a value network.
This was all a little expensive PR event, in order when the shortages come by they could say: "Gosh, we tried so hard to get something clean but it didn't work. Unfortunately we will need to go fo CTL, tar sands, heavy oil and nuclear now... Oh, yes we will also need to wage 1-2-3 more wars to secure "our" oil...". I see ethanol as the next excuse in the transitioning campaign to more and more dirtier and/or controversal energy sources and measures to preserve our "non-negotiatable" way of life.
One of the scientist told a senator that it was ridiculous to build a enormous laser prior to getting the table top prototype working. The senator accused him of being disloyal to the president and tried to get him fired.
When dealing with politicians it is important to realize that they don't understand technology. To them (and most of the public) it IS magic. An those 'liberal arrogant scientists" are just trying to be difficult.
Oy, veh.
BTW this community seems to be moving beyond 'bargaining'.