Where Are the Hurricanes?
Posted by Dave Cohen on August 24, 2006 - 2:40pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: hurricanes, national hurricane center, typhoons [list all tags]
What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, Katrina was bearing down on the Gulf of Mexico and Rita was still in the future. The Oil Drum's traffic was way up as our editors and commentors provided up to the minute coverage.
Today, the National Hurricane Center is tracking Debbie, the 4th named storm of 2006. When Katrina hit, it was "the eleventh named storm, fifth hurricane, third major hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season."
Where are the hurricanes?
Typhoon Saomai tore into Cangnan County in eastern China's Zhejiang province Thursday after authorities relocated 1 million people in the densely populated commercial province, Xinhua said....On August 18th, Bloomberg reported Tropical Storm Wukong Hits Japan's Kyushu; Flights Cancelled. Wikipedia summarizes the 2006 Pacific typhoon season.Saomai, Vietnamese for "morning star," capsized boats and collapsed houses as it carved a swath of destruction through southern China, following in the path of seven previous typhoons this season.
In addition, the NHC is now tracking Ileana in the Eastern Pacific where there has been more activity than in the Atlantic.
The forecast team at Colorado State's The Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Dr. William Gray, predicted in April of 2006 that there would be 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes during 2006. The latest revision for activity after August 1st indicates 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes.
Similarly, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center 2006 forecast called for
NOAA continues to predict a high likelihood (75% chance) of an above-normal 2006 Atlantic hurricane season and a 20% chance of a near-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). Therefore, 2006 is forecast to be the tenth above-normal season in the last twelve years. See NOAA's definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.Both the NOAA and Colorado State predictions still forecast more hurricanes to come. Sea surface temperatures have been reported as below 2005 levels but now there are signs that the Atlantic hurricane factory is primed.This updated outlook calls for a seasonal total of 12-15 named storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-4 becoming major hurricanes (categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale). The likely range of NOAA's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell and Halpert, 2000) is 110%-170% of the median. These totals include the three tropical storms (Alberto, Beryl, and Chris) that have already occurred. Therefore, for the remainder of the season, we expect an additional 9-12 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-4 major hurricanes.
The latest space-based measurements of Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures have revealed a wide swath of hot water ready to supercharge any storms that form there -- if a few other things line up as well.Are we still in hot water? Or have we made a miraculous escape from the ravages of Atlantic tropical storms in 2006? Discuss.In recent weeks the water temperatures have risen significantly from the Cape Verde Islands off northern Africa, all the way west to the Gulf of Mexico.
A broad expanse of surface waters have hit the magic 82 degrees Fahrenheit (28 C) mark, which hurricane experts say is prerequisite for the hurricane factory to kick on.
"We're a little bit cooler than this time last year, but it's still warm enough," said NASA oceanographer David Adamec.
Yeeeessshhhh!!!!
Best of my reading they don't "do" weather. Same with the jesuates. Or the Jews. Or them Gnomes of Zurich
Maitreya,
Never heard of them - ok Him/Her. Somehow the world teacher - hurracane link would be hard to make. Not like yakuza...
http://www.flashnews.com/news/wfn1050908J5463.html
The rest of the list are just people...and while they might want to control the weather...mostly they just report on it.
Or report on the people controlling it. Or something.
A few of the Mets on the Eastern US Weather Board are looking closely at Invest 97L. They think this has the makings of the most dangerous system so far this season. If it develops, then the Western GOM is definitely at risk.
ON 97L..significant threat for western Carib western Gulf
Thoughts on 97L
Oh, and also it's worth looking at this thread. Statistically, we're only about 30% of the way through the season for major hurricanes (>cat3).
The problem so far has been for systems to reach the Gulf without being ripped apart by shear (which could still happen to TD 5). A storm that makes it to the Gulf could intensify rapidly.
I am sure that the GOM does not want a lot of hurricanes
The track on Jeff Master's blog is definitely NOT good. Guess I'll be checking the drive-away kit this weekend.
I read some weather sites like "weather underground" and a few articles along the way. This doesn't make me much of an expert.
That being said: from what I've read it seems likely that a hurricane will move through the GOM sonetine in the next 12 weeks or so, or at least a tropical storm.
Impacts will depend upon size of storm, timing and location of the strike, and ability of folks to prepare and evacuate.
Impact on GOM production depends also on the usual factors.
What are the odds the GOM will avoid hurricanes altogether this season? Have there been very many seasons in the past where the GOM has completely lucked out?
I know crews are still being organized to replace damage from IVAN let alone last years offshore damage - stocks like HOFF and GLBL have years of backlog work.
By Neil Chatterjee
SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed towards $73 on Friday as another storm brewed in the Caribbean with the potential to reach the Gulf of Mexico next week, creating worries over U.S. production already trimmed by an outage in Alaska.
Support also came from Iran's nuclear dispute with the West that could lead to United Nations sanctions against the world's fourth largest oil exporter U.S. crude for October delivery <CLc1> was up 55 cents at $72.91 a barrel by 0237 GMT, after gaining 60 cents on Thursday. London Brent crude <LCOc1> for October rose 32 cents to $73 a barrel.
A spinning band of squalls in the southeastern Caribbean was on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Ernesto by Friday, expected to head northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, forecasters said.
"Traders have turned their focus from comfortable inventory levels in the U.S. to storm activity out in the Atlantic," said Tobin Gorey of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Forecasters expected Tropical Storm Debby to strengthen and possibly become the season's first hurricane, but saw its path heading away from the U.S. Gulf Coast, where production was battered by hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year.
<CUT>
Any sort of event or threat to any significant production capacity causes a multiple-dollar jump.
I don't want to put ideas in anyone's head, but...
How hard would it be to pay some Iraqi bandits to blow up a pipeline?
Or, probably much easier : pay some Nigerian bandits to kidnap some oil-company personnel?
But that's the danger of disrupting climate. The systems are so complex that we don't really understand them yet. Popular mythology says these things take thousands of years to change. Why? Because that is what science believed, about 100 years ago. It often takes a long time for popular mythology to catch up with current science. And current science shows that some extreme prior warming periods caused flips to full up ice ages in under a single decade in the earth's past, and what happened before could happen again.
Be careful of what you wish for because you might just get it.
And current science shows that some extreme prior warming periods caused flips to full up ice ages in under a single decade in the earth's past, and what happened before could happen again.
Can you site a source for this?
Many thanks,
Garth
So the system can change suddenly and global warming doesn't mean we'll end up warm and toasty. We might and we might not. That's the danger of tampering with the climate! All of our grains, our entire world economy, our civilization itself have all been engineered around this particular climate. Several degrees of warming or cooling could wreck our agricultural base, destroy key cities, etc. And it could occur within the span of a single human lifetime, and, as documented above, it can rarely occur in as short as five years.
They do talk about climate change within "decades", though not "a decade", they give no evidence, nor even make the suggestion, that global warming could cause an Ice Age.
Ice ages take time. Snow must fall and then not melt in the summer. Then more snow falls and so on and so on. How long would it take for an ice-cap one mile thick to form over Canada? On the other hand, how long would it take for the ice caps to melt? Ice ages simply cannot happen within a decade, or even several decades. The temperature may drop or rise over a couple of decades but what makes an ice age is ice, lots and lots of ice. That takes many decades.
But it was a great article and I would invite everyone to read it:
http://www.aip.org/pt/vol-56/iss-8/p30.html
It is my understanding that ice ages, as identified by climate scientists, are the result of the actual climate flip - a significant drop in average global temperature. The ice buildup is an effect of the climate flip. I believe that you have your causes and effects backwards, sir.
More links on rapid climate change:
Discussion of rapid climate change and the historical record.
http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/transit.html
Another article specifically on climate shift in one decade or less:
http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/transit.html
This article also states that the Younger Dryas began and ended within a decade and thereafter temperatures remained 5 degrees colder globally for over 1000 years:
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/viewArticle.do?id=10046
This article discusses the Greenland melt extent as of 2005, which is relevant because of the increase of freshwater entering the North Atlantic, which is believed to be a change mechanism to the Thermohaline Circulation:
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/
Rapid climate change is an established fact, Darwinian. You seem to be clinging to the climate science of yesteryear.
An ice dam in the Northern Hemisphere bursts, sending at least 2 Sverdrups of freshwater flowing into the North Atlantic. This stops the flow of the Gulf Stream, plunging Europe and most of of the rest of the Hemisphere into a virtually instant ice age. Glaciers start growing again, etc. Meanwhile, the heat from the sun doesn't disappear; instead, it goes south. There it slowly melts the southern glaciers and is absorbed into the ocean. Eventually the tipping point is reached and the earth enters another warming phase. The 'mini ice ages' triggered by such an event have lasted anywhere from 200 to 1,000 years. And they began almost instantaneously upon the breaking of the ice dam.
Now, it should be noted that there are no longer any ice dams in the Northern Hemisphere. There is however, a large body of surface ice commonly referred to as Greenland which is now melting at 3 times the rate previously thought. If a large enough portion of the ice sheet slid into the Atlantic it would trigger a mini ice age.
So, it is within the realm of possibility.
From one of your links:
There you go! Even the little ice age took several decades just to end. The Little Ice Age, small as it was, actually lasted 300 years, from about 1550 to 1850.
Ice does play a very significant factor in the formation of ice ages. As more ice forms at the poles, more heat is reflected into the atmosphere and consequently the colder it gets. More ice the next year, more heat reflected back into space, means more ice next year and so on and so on. Ice and long term climate changes, which lead to either an ice age or the ending of an ice age, cannot be separated. The ice itself plays the most significant part in the formation of an ice age....Sir!
Meteorologists may talk about "climate flip" and indeed there may be short-term flips of a few degrees. Indeed we are experiencing such a "flip" right now. And we have been in that "flip" for over two decades. And if the methane hydrates begin to melt, we will see the "flip" speed up considerably. But there is no such thing as a "flip" into or out of an ice age. After all, even the little ice age, which was not really an ice age, took several decades to end. An actual ice age would take centuries to form or to end, at least.
Krakatoa made for some beautiful sunsets around the world.
-best
http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/7/28/19350/1306/169#169
My guess is the probability of a significant cooling in the next century or so is very low and the probability of significant warming is very high.
And ggg71 asks:
Can you site a source for this?
Right ggg, I would like to see that source myself. But I will be far bolder than you chose to be; I flat don't believe it! I am an avid reader of geological history and I will say flat out that there is absolutely no historical evidence of any such event. Ice ages take centuries to develop but that is beside the point. There is no evidence that any ice age has ever been caused by global warming.
I fully realize that there is a theory that melting Arctic ice could cause a sudden drop in temperatures in Western Europe. Be that as it may, even if such an event did happen it still would not stop global warming. The overall temperature of the earth would still keep on rising because of the continuing rise of greenhouse gases. And there would be a positive feedback as well. The hotter the average temperature of the sea and tundra, the more methane that gets dumped into the atmosphere and the hotter and hotter the earth gets, mini ice age in Western Europe notwithstanding.
Global Warming means we're going to have nastier and nastier hurricane seasons!! It's different this time!!!
Please.
We're talking about miniscule changes on a year to year basis. There will be good years, and there will be bad years, just like there has always been. It is possible that over the course of decades Hurricanes as a group might be slightly stronger due to warmer waters. I won't discount that.
2005 was an incredible year for Hurricanes. All sorts of records were set. But the