DrumBeat: August 24, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 08/24/06 at 9:19 AM EDT]

UBS: Oil output set to peak, but no fuel shortage

Oil production looks set to peak in the mid-to-late 2020s, but the decline will be offset as high fuel costs accelerate the quest for other energy sources, notably natural gas, UBS said in a study published on Wednesday.

Advocates of the peak oil theory that supplies are close to their maximum levels say it is gaining credence in the investment community.

"The cry of peak oil production has been made several times and on each of these occasions the prediction was incorrect," the UBS report said.

"Exactly when it will occur is very difficult to estimate ... However, the fact that consumption is outstripping new discoveries by more than 400 percent suggests that further increases in global reserves may be nearing an end."

[Update by Leanan on 08/24/06 at 9:40 AM EDT]

Problem slows Prudhoe Bay oil production


The 'Peak' Role of Biofuels

Even those in the biodiesel business don't believe biofuels can be a "silver bullet."

“It may surprise some of you, but we here at EERC tend to agree with this study,” Groenewold said, “We think biomass … in the longer term, may provide perhaps 20 percent of the energy needs of this country.” Therefore, while many energy experts believe the United States and the world will, for a long time, remain dependent on a wide range of energy technologies, fossil fuels will continue to be our primary source of energy. A world in which biomass energy has a one-fifth market share, however, may be music to the ears of those with a stake in biodiesel.


Jeffrey Brown writes An Open Letter to my Friends in the Media


Podcast: Richard Heinberg interview.


Energy must not cost the earth

IT systems, in particular servers, are increasingly power hungry as technology capabilities increase, but this comes at a time when power supplies are more strained and less predictable.

‘We are talking about an increase of two to three times in energy costs over a three-year period,’ said Rakesh Kumar, vice president at Gartner. ‘That is a huge increase that an IT director will have to absorb and firms will get clobbered financially.’

Some data centres use as much energy as a small town, which is significant from both financial and environmental perspectives, says the Carbon Trust.


Tom Whipple on The Peak Oil Crisis: Conserving Light


Argentina to revive nuke program

Argentina's government launched on Wednesday a nuclear energy plan that includes the completion of a third plant and the enrichment of uranium after a nearly ten-year lull.


Ukraine Won’t Siphon Off Russian Gas This Winter


Canada's Black Gold: Debt Free Thanks to Oil Sands


American among hostages freed in Nigeria


Oil lures West to troubled Myanmar


Gas prices mean more students take the bus


IEA: Too late for European global warming target


Still mopping up in Gulf

BP's announcement this week that a damaged oil platform is leaking off Louisiana highlights what many have forgotten: the Gulf of Mexico's oil and gas industry is still cleaning up from last year's hurricane season.

In all, Hurricane Katrina destroyed 46 offshore platforms and Hurricane Rita destroyed 69, according to the Minerals Management Service, an agency of the Department of the Interior.

Re:  UBS article

This is basically a variation on the Peter Huber argument, to-wit, that individual sources of energy will peak and decline, but the aggregate energy production rate--which is the sum of individual sources of energy--will never peak and decline.  

"Translated" UBS Release:

From fossil fuel + nuclear sources, the world uses the energy equivalent of one billion barrels of oil every five days.  

At this rate of consumption, the world consumes the energy equivalent of the entire recoverable oil reserves in the East Texas Field, the largest oil field in the US Lower 48, every 30 days.  

At this rate of consumption, the world consumes the energy equivalent of the entire recoverable oil reserves in the Prudhoe Bay Field, the largest oil field in North America, every 30 days.

At this rate of consumption, the world consumes the energy equivalent of all of ExxonMobil's proven oil and gas reserves in less than four months.

We see no problem with this rate of energy consumption, and we predict that the world's rate of energy consumption will increase for the indefinite future.

We advise everyone, especially Americans, to continue buying and financing large vehicles to drive to and from large suburban mortgages.

Should read:

. . Prudhoe Bay Field, the largest oil field in North America, every 60 days.

Phew! For awhile you had me worried.
Right, I mean 60 days we can live with, but thirty days seems like an awful short time!  :)
And let us not forget that this is all based on CURRENT levels of use.  In order to have the economic growth required by our economic system we have to use even greater levels of energy in the future or "the system" will break down.
Thanks for the translation, Westexas.

I continue to find myself amazed at the blindness of my fellow citizens.

Six years ago I started riding my first cargo trike. I thought that folks would look at me and say -- oh, what a great solution to some of our problems with pollution, global warming, and lack of exercise in our daily routines.  "I think I'll try that!" they'd say.

Not to mention other benefits -- "energy independence" and reduction of oil-related geopolitical tensions and also "peak oil."

But no.

Many people think that use of vargo trikes is terrific, but they do not change their own patterns at all.

Many people are indifferent about the cargo trike, and think that it is a funny novelty -- nothing more, nothing less.

A significant number of people are hostile to the cargo trike.  It seems to challenge their fundamental beliefs in a way that triggers an immediate emotional response of anger and scorn.

Since I've been riding in my town (Minneapolis), I've sold three used trikes, still have two, and helped the trike maker sell yet another new trike to a person in a neighboring city (St. Paul).  I have seen increased bike riding andsome superb "bike-trailer" combinations which are very practical.

I wonder if people who sit at computers and work in climate-controlled offices and who habitually travel by car end up with imaginations bound by these routines.

I truly believe that our collective and individual imaginations are bound by a belief that our civilization is "the norm" from here on out.  Other people will eventually "catch up" to us economically, and then everyone will live like this evermore.

So the bankers who make up these reports must think with the same inability to see information and reason out the implications?

The exceptions are few and far between -- Matt Simmons, for example.

Most people have a well-documented inability to think outside the box. This is illustrated quite well by the famous 'connect the dots' problem used in introductory psychology classes.

Every civilization has thought they were the norm, from the Egyptians on up, and that they would be around forever and nothing would ever change. The foolishness of this assumption should be obvious, at least in this day and age when we have access to all the historical records of the world. But alas, it persists.

I suppose its just easier to stick your head in the sand.

at least in this day and age

Nothing is special about our present moment.
We are the same evolution-bred animals that populated many an earlier and now ceased civilization.

They too, had "all" of history --all up to their time which they were willing to acknowledge of. (Example: Modern school teachers do not teach 5th graders about Easter Island.)

It is also true that the average person tends to view both themselves and the world through slightly "rose tinted" glasses.  Thy tend to over-estimate their looks, intelligence and general social desirablility.  They tend to think they are richer in a relative sense (income percentile) than they actually are as well as over-estimate their future prospects.  Interestingly, the most accurate people at assessing both themselves and others are the mildly depressed.

 Which brings up the question: Are TODers mildly depressed?...;o)

Somedays, I'm extremely depressed that my good looks, wealth and intelligence are underestimated by the opposite sex.  Apparently, one has to be nice as well.
Nope you have to have money, be an utter bastard, but there's a certain twist to it - some utter bastards are really rather nice people, in other words.... they're utter bastards but not actually mean.

The winning combination seems to be to have money, but be a total tight-ass with it, and yes have the basic lack of consideration for others, but the main thing is, a high level of skill in manipulating others. You have to enjoy getting into people's minds and manipulating them for your own ends or amusement without the slightest twinge of guilt over how you may be ruining their life, health, etc.

If you really want to make it with the ladies, think Sociopath. Not the stupid kind that eventually gets caught and thrown in prison, the smarter kind that goes on and on and leaves a wide wake of havoc well-sprinkled with the bodies and souls of your victems.

That, in Amurrika, is Mr. Perfect.

Just "mildly depressed"? I'm depressed that you are so under diagnosing us doc. How about schizoid with paranoid delusions of doom?
That would be peakanoid derivations of doomerdom.
Peak Oil Blues - a new site found via Energy Bulletin a couple days ago.  
We are a small but growing group of professionally trained  psychotherapists who know the stress the dawning awareness of Peak Oil brings.

We invite our readers and colleagues to contribute to the growing body of knowledge regarding the unique social and emotional challenges we face in a post-petroleum age.

<snip>

Our goal is to first normalize, then assist others in learning how to transform any frozen or destructive emotional reactions into more proactive, productive responses.  We believe the goal isn't simply to survive, but to thrive in our lifetime and to give to those who come after us.  Time is too valuable a gift to waste in confusion or hopelessness.

I like this site.  I wish it had been there when I first got the word!

That is a very interesting site, and an interesting development.  I think I went through some peak oil stages.  I became a "peak oil moderate" fairly quickly, but I worried about those moderate futures a bit more than I do now.  I came out the other side when I decided that humility and a little uncertainty were more healthy than trying to nail what "the" future was going to be.

It's possible to keep an eye on energy issues without commiting to a single energy future.

The Doomer issue is itself pretty interesting and not identical with peak oil considerations per se.  My impression is that most (though by no means all) doomers are middle aged or later and primarily male.  Most also appear to be left of center politically (though there have been and continue to be a lot of Christian Fundamentalist Rapture waiters-see the "Left Behind" crowd though not many are posting on TOD).  These observations suggest possible roles for a) projected mortality concerns (I am doomed and know it perceived as the world is doomed), and b) disempowerment on a political basis that may be exacerbated by male gender (all you Freudians out there can have a field day with this).  Of course, none of this means that the Doomers are actually wrong but may influence the tendency to be drawn to these issues rather than pursue the typical human tendency to maintain denial for as long as possible. (PS. I would advise taking all of the above with a rather large grain of salt given obvious speculative basis)
Of course, none of this means that the Doomers are actually wrong but may influence the tendency to be drawn to these issues rather than pursue the typical human tendency to maintain denial for as long as possible.

This is an interesting and plausible hypothesis.
But since it compensate for the "tendency to maintain denial" that would mean that there is an "optimal" level of doomerosity which has some chance to match reality.

Maybe it's the "moderate" position ;-)
You are not a "moderate" you are a troll with an agenda.

odo, this guy is out of control. People have obviously been watching this play out. I have no idea how to deal with it. I've tried several approaches. None have worked. Although ignoring him seemed to have the best effect.
this guy is out of control.

Control???
WHICH control?
WHOSE control?

I didn't know there was "control" at TOD.

So YOU are "under control", mmmm...
I wonder then who is controling the controler.

I don't agree.  A lot of young and old people are doomers.  And I don't see the male skew you see.  

Of course, it's kind of hard to tell online.  On the Internet, no one knows you're a dog, and all that.

I agree in that Doomers can be found of just about any age and sex.  My suspicion that middle age males comprise the largest doomer demographic is just that, a suspicion based on limited data, but would be interested in a more scientific sampling...
David sir, I would like to respectfully disagree with part of your suppositions. While I would agree that perhaps part of the Doomer crowd is there because of the reasons you provide, I think that it goes much deeper than this. I'll explain in a minute. First let me acknowledge that yes, the potential for `doom' is real. Even probable perhaps. I do think things could get pretty bad for a while, but I think that some sort of civilization will go on. I am an optimist, after all. Many people see the writing on the wall and extrapolate that mentally to doom.

I think that the doomerism(?) extends well beyond the PO community, and that it has both psychological and sociological causes. If you go into an inner city neighborhood, or a poor slum on the outskirts of the city, or any homeless camp, you will run into a significant number of people who are disheartened, defeated, and personally doomed. This is best evidenced in the acting out of the youth of the inner city. What have they got to do besides deal drugs? College? They ain't going to no college. They'll be lucky to finish high school. And they know it. In the past few years this feeling has crept out of the ghettos and into middle class and even some upper class areas. People increasingly have less and less opportunities. They are more constrained in life. This leads many to depression and defeatism. Projected outward, it can become doomerism. Not only that, but doom would have a few benefits -the overhaul of society, starting from scratch. Loss of constraints. More opportunities. I think doomerism and defeatism are two sides of the same coin. As someone once said, the difference between suicide and homicide is the direction of the impulse.

Take this with a grain of salt please. That's my admittedly unprofessional analysis.

I read Will Wilkinsons blogs about economics and happiness for a while.  One fragment:

My predictions:

(a) There are multiple bases for good and bad self-reports. For example, some "very happy" people may have very consistently low cortisol levels. (Buddhist happy.) Some "very happy" people have very high status-related seratonin and testosterone levels, with a moderately high amount of cortisol. (Big honcho happy.)

... so remember, if you can't be "honcho" happy, there's always "Buddhist" happy.  (And Buddhist happy might require a little less energy per capita ;-)

http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2006/02/page/2/

Now this is some "thought food" for sure, seriously as most tend to view "happiness" as fairly uniform in quality but clearly it is not.  I think it is worth noting that the "Big Hocho" kind of happiness tends to be less stable than the "Buddhist" happiness and requires a lot more maintenance and resource consumption. This would suggest that the Powerdown Process needs to promote the "Buddhist" variety of happiness--which is probably more akin to the concept of "contentment" as opposed to the ebulient hypomanic variety.
The idea of Buddhist happiness has come up in past threads at TOD, but it has been a while.  I agree that it should be part of the powerdown/consumerism puzzle.  I say that without being a Buddhist or knowing all that much about it.  From what little I know Buddhist happiness seems to make sense though.

I happened to visit a Buddhist Temple a couple days ago, which why I mentioned it.  There is a self-guided audio tour, and a cafeteria for a vegetarian lunch.  It was a nice experience.  I did notice that the Temple didn't seem to have bike racks though ;-/

I grew up in that area, interesting to see the neighborhood tip toward an asian and Buddhist community ... great strip mall food!

Optimist, I agree with you and my limited speculations were not meant to be all inclusive as to the underlying dynamics of doomerism. In addition, the example you gave shares the underlying dynamic of personal social defeat projected outward.  And, again, the potential for doom is REAL and, of course, the "Doomers" will eventually be correct--the world will end or at least "civilization as we know it" one way or another--sun novas, grows into red giant, new ice age, etc, etc.  The disturbing issues we face with PO is that the probability of doom appears to be gaining a lot of statistical "traction lately"--or I am I projecting my mid-life crisis anxst...;o) DM
DM, I think you're right in stating that the Doom Scenario has gained traction lately. I too have noticed it.

And the other scenarios you mentioned are also correct. Hopefully though, by the time the sun goes nova we'll have figured out the means to star travel. A ticket to Alpha Centauri anyone?

Can you get frequent flyer miles? ;o)

Catastrophic Utopia, or the Psychology of "Yearning For A New Dark Age"
odograph,

You said, "It's possible to keep an eye on energy issues without committing to a single energy future."

It's not only possible, it is the most realistic and scientific approach.  It is a refutation of "Peak Oil" as assured catastrophic death and destruction of culture, which there is no demonstrably provable way to show that it will be.

The issue is whether I accept absolute catastrophic doom as the only possible outcome as an article of faith.  You may notice that many  people here seem to....and react in a very hostile way to the suggestion that there could be any other possible outcome....notice the response of Kevembuangga to your remarks, "You are not a "moderate" you are a troll with an agenda."

It is shocking that a so called "scientific outlook" would react to any difference with the "accepted dogma"  of assured doom and catastrophic failure of all modern society in such a violently hostile way.  What does it say about the psychology of the "peak oil" "rapture" theology?  Of course, that version of absolutism has nothing to do with science in the normally accepted way of acceptance of new thesis and theories, and then testing them with as much rigor as possible to try to prove their correctness, a tool that relies on acceptance of questioning DEEPLY any theory.  It is, in the end, a belief system.

Of course, it was predicted and described many years ago.  Rousseau and the cult of the "Noble Savage", the Ruskin/Morris aesthetic of "Neo-Gothic Medievalist, and more directly and recently related to the "Peak Oil" catastrophist theology", Alvin Toffler.

Toffler described in the 1980's what he called "The Yearning for a New Dark Age" as part of the illness he had earlier described as "Future Shock".  

This would be, he said, the mental breakdown in reaction to complexity, high cultural speed of change, overchoice of options in lifestyle, career and social choices, and the inability and or unwillingness to stay up with the more technical and modern pace of change.  

It was pointed up that those most vulnerable to "Peak Oil" depression issues are middle aged males.  These of course are exactly the same ones most vulnerable to "Future Shock", in that they are most mentally acclimated to the older, slower more simple and organizationally stable structure, and they are least shielded (in comparison to females, with their known stronger social based networks, and "people and home" orientation) form the chaos of ultra high speed cultural post modernism in the high tech high information culture.

The reaction becomes to yearn for a simpler, more primitive, slower and less diverse time, a culture that is more comparable to a known model, namely, the past.  "Peak Oil" provides a magnificent vehicle to a slower, more primitive world.  It may be a harder world, but at least the struggles for life's basics are one the human mind can comprehend.  Thus, the collapse of a completely incomprehensible ultra modern system becomes a dream, a fantasy of a way back to a simple world.  Notice that the "Neo-Gothic" movement was born in the birth of the super expansion of industrial, commercial, media culture.

Note the virulent language used against anyone who expresses any doubts about the exact nature not of "geological" peak oil (which is a fairly easily demonstrated fact of geology in the past) but about the "catastrophist" vision of the future.  First they are completely dehumanized, referred to repeatedly as "sheepies", "screaming monkeys", and no smarter than yeast.  They are declared in some state of mental illness or sickness, "denial", "sleepwalking", "brainwashed" or "hypnotized" by giant forces beyond their comprehension.

This type of attack of such viscousness and slanderous nature bespeaks something much deeper than a difference of opinion or technical viewpoint.
It indicates that anyone who perceives any weakness in the "assured catastrophist" theory is actually an impediment to a desired goal, a possible roadblock and a danger to what is a desired vision of existence, that being the return to the mental and social peace that "catastrophe", "powerdown" and the "big dieoff" will bring....a more peaceful and beautiful utopia of a simple, non technical, slower, and local culture.

Of course, like all "Utopias", the dreamed of "dark age" will not come.  The technology cat is already out of the bag.  The knowledge will survive, the more advanced methods will exist in pockets, and live on to keep the world complicated and much different than the hoped for "simple" dark age of the past.  But it lives on as a dangerous dream.  There are those who, if they do not see the dreamed of "collapse" coming soon, may begin to try to "encourage it"  to come.  The emergence of "radical solutions" of the type proposed by "Green Anarchists"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_anarchism indicate that psychologically, the "collapse", or "die off" or "End of The World As We Know It" is not so much feared as a possible outcome of oil and gas depletion" or "Peak Oil" but dreamed of as a preferable new world for humans, an aesthetic choice.

The words of the exploration geologist Greg Croft ring louder...
"The greatest danger from peak oil is that we will do something foolish in response to it."

But what may seem "foolish" to many of us, may actually be a path to perceived beautiful future to some.  At this point, the discussion has less and less to do with oil and energy at all, but more and more to do with aesthetics, belief, and desired purposes in life.  For those who yearn for "A New Dark Age" so called oil depletion or "Peak Oil" simply becomes a means to an ends, and no solution should be attempted because none is desired.

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Thank you Roger. The future is yet to be written...
actually...well, uh, I'm not supposed to say this. We have been observing you for quite some time. And 9 out of 10 agree that you have the necessary skills.

The future actually has been written. It just has some serious continuity errors and wicked spelling and grammatical mistakes.

Will you help us fix these? It only pays $6 an hour to start, but I can assure you the perks are unbelievable.

I'll sign on to help debug the core algorithms.

But it had better pay better than $6/hr. I have eight years left on my mortgage.

As per Doomerism vs Whateverism:

I know I tend to the doomer side of the equation.

Put this down to working in the Y2K arena as a mainframe programmer trying to make it a survival situation.

I worked long and hard hours during this event and saw the scary side of what was hidden from most including the idioticy of the Mass Media.

We escaped it but some did not. There was no mention of those that did not. I saw mass layoffs of very key personnel, idioticy by IT management to unheard of levels.

This gave me some insight as to how we react or will react and this gave me my reasons for tending to the doom side of the future.

That being said, I hope and pray that this proposed upcoming event is averted. I have been watching and keenly reading the internet for years and observing as well personally.

Hope is something I keep near but preparedness is something I chose to do just in case.

So I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I do not do it gleefully. Its hard work and expensive. It detrimental to good mental health and I do not enjoy it.

What I saw after Y2K was that we no longer had a cohesive society. The business leaders threw all morals to the wind and started to take this country economically to its knees.

Our morals shrank to nothing but selfcentered greed beyond belief.

We are not , IMO, no longer a suvivable species in the USA. We have not the core values to make it through.

The folks who populate this website are not the same as the general public. I applaud the attitudes and efforts of those here but realize the difference.

I still work in computer technology, precision farming and other areas. Mainframes no longer exist in meaningful numbers to keep me employed. I am currenly implementing wireless technology to autombile service areas and am amazed at the unbelievable technology in that area(automotive embedded systems) yet realize that the Big Three for all that technology are mostly on the wrong path.

Will our technology save us? I think it still tied to closely to the business side of the equation to offer much hope. If it was diverted? Say thur 'Open Source' avenues? Then we might have a chance.

I suggest the book (online version exists) by Eric S. Raymond  .....www.catb.org/~esr/writings/cathedral-bazaar/

titled The Cathedral and the Bazaar and others at that site.

This to me is where we need to be. Using grassroots technology to take control of our future and not waiting for the 'guv/ or biz to make decisions for us.  I don't think they really care.

airdale--"Thankee Sai, if it do ya."

Wow, that's some writing.
Note the virulent language used against anyone who expresses any doubts about the exact nature not of "geological" peak oil (which is a fairly easily demonstrated fact of geology in the past) but about the "catastrophist" vision of the future.

So, Roger, you are speaking of me as "Yearning for a New Dark Age" and "violently hostile" ?
I am very sad...  

Of course, like all "Utopias", the dreamed of "dark age" will not come. The technology cat is already out of the bag. The knowledge will survive,

Agreed 100%, except may be with a toned down "technology cat" (not so miraculous), but alas I expect BOTH a die-off and some persistence of civilisation and technology.
This is what I am aiming for, not out of a craving for "dark age" or a yearning for "a simpler, more primitive, slower and less diverse time, a culture that is more comparable to a known model, namely, the past."

I enjoy too much the current facilities of civilisation to have any desire to give them up.
Though, there is a little bit of a difference in my appreciation with respect to what seems to be the "common