DrumBeat: September 3, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 09/03/06 at 9:32 AM EDT]

The End of the Oil Era Looms

Oil, uranium, gold and platinum are more sought after than ever today. The search for natural resources is becoming increasingly difficult and prices are soaring. But future growth of the world economy depends on these natural resources -- and some will soon disappear forever.

Debate swirls around fossil fuel’s demise

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall and others in Congress have positioned themselves at the center of an uncomfortable idea: Eventually the planet will run out of fossil fuels.


Should we scrap NASA to save the world?


Honey, We Killed the Planet

It follows that long after the gas stations of America close down and the cars that once filled up at them have been converted to garden pergolas and jungle gyms for the wee ones, a few absurdly rich people will still have some oil or gasoline. It will have become so expensive by then that they will keep it in their wine cellars next to their bottles of Château Lafite-Rothschild. Thus, in the strictest sense we will never, as simple-minded optimists insist, run out of oil.


Are we ready for a world without oil? Not a chance


Executive warns of energy disaster

The president and chief executive officer of one of the nation's largest energy companies warned that the United States is heading toward "an energy train wreck" unless it immediately begins work on projects that will take years to finance and complete.


Make Room For Bikes On Rail Cars

Last month the State Bond Commission approved $459 million toward the largest purchase of rail cars in state history - 300 new M8s (with an option to purchase 80 more) from Kawasaki Rail Car Inc. and $25 million toward refurbishing existing rail cars. Initial delivery for new cars is due in 2009.

The good news is that these cars are designed to run not only on Metro-North Railroad's New Haven line, but also on the state Department of Transportation's Shore Line East corridor.

The bad news is that the design for the M8 cars does not yet include dedicated space for bicycles.


Putin seeks to breathe life into stalled Balkan oil pipeline project


Tribal rebels bomb gas pipeline amid protests in Pakistan


Malaysia: Good times just keep rolling on for oil and gas workers


What status for Vietnam’s oil and gas reserves?


BG Group Makes Substantial North Sea Discovery


Exxon field lifts Russian August oil output to record


Fuel-Efficiency Drives Toyota Gains

Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) is trying to get on the GO-POP (Grand Old - Peak Oil Party) team.  Although if he pushes ethanol in a big way, he will be disqualified.

http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/48695.html

U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., said he has not studied the issue enough to join the peak-oil crowd, but noted he's pushing alternatives anyway.

Below is my energy-aware political dream team (representatives from both parties):

1 - Roscoe Bartlett (R - Maryland)
2 - Richard Lugar (R - Indiana)
3 - Tom Udall (D-New Mexico)
4 - Edward Markey (D - Massachusetts)
5 - Al Gore (Ex-presidential candidate & inventor of the Internet)
6 - Bill Clinton (former prez, has admitted to the concept of Peak Oil)

This seems to list only those who talk about the subject in public, which doesn't say  much. If by energy aware you mean peak oil aware, Cheney has to be there, along with his task force crew and cronies and many others around him.
And also, it appears obvious by now that there are other motives for pushing alternatives than being "energy aware". Being aware of potential profits comes to mind. Or, as R2 wrote yesterday, being aware that there's elections coming up in Iowa.
OK...true...let's rephrase "energy-aware" to "peal oil-aware" and include those that at least give lip service that PO is a problem that will have to be dealt with if we wish to continue as a successful country (without purposefully killing citizens of the world to do it).

There are very few that have actually taken any actions to mitigate PO in our political arena at this point in time.  I have to start somewhere.

  • OK, so the above change would eliminate Cheney (had to come up with something...he's aware, but chooses the military option to deal with it).
  • I don't think speaking of ethanol or using ethanol as "part" of the solution should eliminate anybody.  Just as long as they are not saying it is the ONLY answer.

Keep in mind, this is a work in progress (GO-POP), it is just for fun, and I certainly appreciate any/all input on its evolution.
There are very few that have actually taken any actions to mitigate PO in our political arena at this point in time.  I have to start somewhere.

I meant, of course, in the USA.

Is there any reason that you never added Mark Udall D-(CO), Tom's cousin who works closely with Bartlett, helped found the Peak oild caucus, and is co-chair of the house renewable energy and energy efficiency caucus with Wang?  He's an avid biker and check his voting record on energy issues.
No reason at all...he will be #7:

GO-POP (Grand Ole Peak Oil Party) - possible merge with POGO (pending):

1 - Roscoe Bartlett (R - Maryland)
2 - Richard Lugar (R - Indiana)
3 - Tom Udall (D-New Mexico)
4 - Edward Markey (D - Massachusetts)
5 - Al Gore (Ex-presidential candidate & inventor of the Internet)
6 - Bill Clinton (former prez, has admitted to the concept of Peak Oil)
7 - Mark Udall (D-Colorado)

Current Tenets:

  • Must be Peak Oil aware or have stated ideas/policies that would work favorably in a PO USA.
  • Solutions for PO USA must not include purposeful force or death on those that export oil.
  • Can speak of ethanol as a partial solution, but ethanol can not be the ONLY solution.  Any that have close ties to any aspects of ethanol production will be excluded.
 I hate to mention him, but what about Gov. Arnold Roidboy?
The Governator??? You know, I thought about him.  Recently he's passed some good stuff, although he made some mistakes with hydrogen.  I think we need to wait and see if his colors have truly changed, but I'm open to his membership consideration.
the scale gets slippery, doesn't it?
something tells me if you want a real list with real people really committed, that list will be blissfully mercifully short, and you'll easily fit it on one bumper sticker

a politician's no.1 priority is getting (re-)elected
a conscience, if present, comes way behind that, let alone responsibility for constituents, unless they belong to a majority

some EU politicians speak out louder on certain issues, such as energy and environment, than their US counterparts, but that is just because the polls tell them it enhances their "inclusive vote-fitness"

and then you find out they lie

Yes...well...getting even some comment about energy issues or PO from US politicians is astounding.  So that's where I'm starting.  It's really all I have to go with right now.

The next step will be making sure they take action on their words.

Great journeys start with just one step.  That first step can be the hardest one to take.

the scale gets slippery, doesn't it?

Sure it does...this won't be easy.  But, things worth fighting for are rarely easy.  

Washington state's Jay Inslee (D) is also aware of Peak Oil. In an interview last year he mentioned a meeting between Bill Gates and the state's Congressional delegation, where Gates brought up Deffeyes' "Hubbert's Peak" book as a topic of discussion.

Other than in that interview, I haven't heard Inslee mention Peak Oil, but he is the Congressman who put forward the New Apollo Energy Project.
http://www.theoildrum.com/classic/2005/06/new-apollo-legislationor-theyre-paying.html

Hello DavidM,

That's terrific--Bill Gates singlehandily could move the Peakoil Outreach effort further ahead than any WWWeb forum!  Hope he doesn't withdraw like Richard Rainwater.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

GO-POP (Grand Ole Peak Oil Party) - possible merge with POGO (pending):

1 - Roscoe Bartlett (R - Maryland)
2 - Richard Lugar (R - Indiana)
3 - Tom Udall (D-New Mexico)
4 - Edward Markey (D - Massachusetts)
5 - Al Gore (Ex-presidential candidate)
6 - Bill Clinton (former prez)
7 - Mark Udall (D-Colorado)
8 - Jay Inslee (D - Washington)
9 - Bill Gates (this party will need funding)
10 - Richard Rainwater (ditto #9 if he's got the will to come back)

* Any other billionaires care to join?  We also need more Republicans to come aboard.  Who's with us?  Well, who's with me since no one else has officially signed up for the party except myself?

Congressman backs post-oil planning: Thompson says Willits can set national example
by Claudia Reed

"We can't keep going the way we've been going," said Congressman Mike Thompson. "That's a no brainer."

Speaking during Mondays meeting with local officials and members of the Willits Economic LocaLization (WELL) group, Thompson was referring to an economy based on insatiable consumption of fossil fuels. The United States, he said, comprises about 6 percent of the worlds population, but consumes at least 25 percent of its oil, most of which is imported.

http://www.energybulletin.net/11342.html

Switch to biobased fuels heralds big changes for farming, daily life

But biofuels will save the day(sarcasm off).

We probably don't appreciate yet how much our lives are going to change again as the petroleum age fades away and we make the transition to the next fuel - biomass and other renewable sources such as wind and solar energy.

A glimmer of the change was on display last week at Iowa State University during the annual Biobased Industry Outlook Conference: Growing the Bioeconomy. This conference is largely attended by practical people who have started or are considering starting businesses that use biomass as feedstock or a biological process in production. Attendance at the conference has tripled in three years.

The biggest industrial users of biomass in Iowa are the ethanol and biodiesel industries, but those are just the beginning.

And then we have this: Biomass could supply 66% of U.S. gas needs

The bioeconomy articles in the Aug. 27 Register are a tremendous public service to the people of Iowa, educating them about a subject important to the future economic prosperity of their state.

The lead editorial on the Opinion page, "Ethanol Is Just the Beginning," includes a statement from the joint Department of Energy-U.S. Dept. of Agriculture "billion ton" study that actually underestimates the potential of biomass to replace gasoline consumption in the United States.

As stated in the report's summary, its purpose was to determine whether land resources in the United States are capable of providing a sustainable supply of biomass "sufficient to displace 30 percent or more of the country's present petroleum consumption by 2030." This is the federal government's so-called "30 by '30" vision.

The report answered "yes," but many assumed that they meant that the most we could displace was 30 percent. This widely held misperception was recently pointed out to me by government scientists. The 1.3 billion tons of biomass identified in the DOE-USDA study could displace as much as 66 percent of our current gasoline demand.

There is room for additional optimism: Retooling our spark-ignition engines to take advantage of the high octane number of ethanol could move us very close to substituting ethanol for all of our current gasoline demand. Alternatively (or additionally), we could demand higher corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for our automobiles, which could close the remaining gap. Of course, we need to quickly perfect ways to turn plant fibers into fuels if this vision is to be met for the next generation.

- Robert C. Brown,

professor, mechanical engineering, chemical and biological engineering, and agricultural and biosystems engineering; director, Center for Sustainable Environmental Technologies,

This professor, who one just might suspect has a place at the ethanol welfare trough, is a victim of the view that our biggest challenge is to maintain motorized individual transportation units.  Even on the transportation mobility front, this view is confused.  We need to maintain mobility, that's all.

This view that the appropriate use of farmland in North America, surplus to our nutrition needs, ignores the coming decline in hydrocarbons used to keep 10's of millions from freezing in the winter.

Maybe there will be another civil war in the U.S. as some southerners insist on welfare for agri-business in Iowa, while Northerners demand fuel for space and water heating.

More likely, economics will defeat the keep-my-car running crowd.  Great breakthroughs may raise the EROEI of the crop to car process, but it is more likely that a monkey will randomly type out the collected works of Shakespeare, than it is that this process will ever achieve anything near to the EROEI of the crop to space/water heating process.  And this latter process is not static, but improving with time.

Energy crop to space/water heating does not require welfare, it only requires a certain base price in natural gas.  In comparison, no price level for hydrocarbons will make liquid fuel from corn or soy competitive at the farm gate.  The solid fuel processor will in any probable scenario always be able to outbid the liquid fuel processor, assuming the latter doesn't have a cheque from the government in his pocket.

Prepare to say goodbye to corn based ethanol and soy based diesel.  And good riddance.  We simply can't afford this kind of waste and in short order, we won't tolerate it.

It looks as though the UK may in short order provide a case study illustrating this point.

Lugar is pushing ethanol heavily.  If that's a disqualifier, why's he on your team?
I added an addendum to my GO-POP party.  They can speak of ethanol, but it can not be their ONLY solution.  Any ties to ethanol companies is automatic disqualification.
"GO-POP"  I like it.  OK, who is in charge of the bumper stickers?
:-)
Those of us in the POGO party will oppose you. I think we need to draft Jimmy Carter, he's eligible to run again ...
Haaa...we could combine our efforts...remind me what POGO stands for?
Post-Oil / Global-Warming

In a previous thread, I suggested PO-GW be pronounced 'Pogo', after a certain cartoon possum from the Okeefenokee swamp.

I loved POGO...my dad was a journalist and had all the POGO collections.  I always thought Bloom County was heavily influenced by POGO.
Labelling Gore "inventor of the internet" is an attempt at humor but during his run for presidnet it was a dishonest and cheap shot. Early on he was deeply involved in his Senate career he was deeply involved in technology issues (including pushing for funding for DARPAnet the precursor to the internet. No less a figure than Vin Cerf credits Gore as being a key player in making the internet a reality.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/gore032199.htm
Vinton G. Cerf, a senior vice president at MCI Worldcom and the person most often called "the father of the Internet" for his part in designing the network's common computer language, said in an e-mail interview yesterday, "I think it is very fair to say that the Internet would not be where it is in the United States without the strong support given to it and related research areas by the vice president in his current role and in his earlier role as senator."
The co-author of a history of the online world, "Where Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of the Internet," agreed. Katie Hafner said people have been haggling over the true beginnings of the network for decades. "As we all know, there are many paternity claims on the Internet. That's a given, because it's so successful. But there are so many people who did at least one pivotal thing in either creating the network, or encouraging the use of the network, or bringing the network to the public -- and Gore was one of those people."

I think we've covered this arguement ad nauseum...let's move on (yes, it was a joke).
Yes, it was a joke and that damn joke is wearing thin. So let's stop joking and stop labeling Gore as the inventor of the internet. We cannot possibly move on until this stupid shit stops!
OK, OK...I'll strike that after his name, but he stays on the list.  Any objections???
But say Gore and you've said most of God!

http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=51302

Not sure what you are saying about Gore, but by your link I think you are saying that he should be off the list due to all the money he makes off his ideas.

Well, that's his money-maker now...I guess we throw his inclusion on the list open to TOD..Ya or Nay to Gore on the list?

Yeah
Re: Domenici

Perhaps if he were president, Domenici said, he could direct the country in a massive effort to become energy independent.

Oh, yeah!


It's good to be the King!

See??
Same drugs as Lovins. No doubt.
Where do they get that stuff?
The drugs? I'm still searching...

Helloooooo? You don't hangz out with the right peoples, my friend.
We're talkin' PO here; grow your own.

Rat

PO would mean peak hydroponics. No? ...Shit - I better get busy. I'm such a moron. I've been growing tomatoes. Aaaaaaargh!!!!!!
We realize of course some of the ramifications of getting what we want(ie "Everybody Knowing"),  There will be slide into disorder in some short time frame.

If you are old enough to remember Firesign Theater,  the "Beat The Reaper" skit.  Well we are fast approaching the point where people in the studio and audience started mumbling softly "the plauge" which starts building on itself to where people are running for the door screaming
"The Plauge, The Plauge".

Well, anyways it was a great comedy skit by some pros ahead of their time.

But having PEAK OIL on billboards on Route #95 may give us all the biggest lesson on Crowd Dynamics that the world ever seen.  

How many remember the picture of the Guy in China stopping that line of Tanks?  I remember seeing it live.

The point is the Feedback Loop on this mass hysteria will be Instant and Global in scope.  Sort of the 100th Monkey thing.

Here we go.

JC

There will be slide into disorder in some short time frame.

This is likely the reason TPTB would not want that.
That will screw their schedule.

Seen any counter propaganda on TOD recently from "moderate" voices?

The President finally outlines an energy strategy fit for our times...

http://weeklyradioaddress.com/WRA20060805.htm

Additional articles for today:

Nightmare Mortgages
- long in-depth article.
While many Americans have started to worry about falling home prices, borrowers who jumped into so-called option ARM loans have another, more urgent problem: payments that are about to skyrocket.

Workers in Michigan try to get back to land as factory closes
The Becks, who between them put in about 70 years at the Electrolux refrigerator factory in Greenville before it closed, had prepared for its closure over the past several months — fishing for odd jobs, adding the animals, cutting down trees by the hilly lakeshore where they live, installing an outdoor, wood-burning furnace so they could more fully live off their land.

Wind power a vexing question for Vermont
"One of Vermont's most deeply held environmental ethics is the protection and preservation of our mountaintops and ridge lines," said Jason Gibbs, a spokesman for Gov. Jim Douglas. "While the governor supports renewable energy ... he cannot support the commercialization and industrialization of our mountaintops."  Environmentalists say that stance is unrealistic.