DrumBeat: September 4, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 4, 2006 - 9:12am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The Demise of a Techno-fix Psyche
I would describe myself as a recovering energy engineer. Technology has been an integral part of my life. At one time I had viewed advancing technology as the answer to all of our problems and the only tool necessary in improving our relationship with the natural world. My own personal journey over the last several years has changed that.
BBC's Driven By Oil: Has oil production finally peaked?
Museletter: Middle East at a Crossroads
At the ASPO conference a well-connected industry insider who wishes not to be directly quoted told me that his own sources inside Saudi Arabia insist that production from Ghawar is now down to less than three million barrels per day, and that the Saudis are maintaining total production at only slowly dwindling levels by producing other fields at maximum rates. This, if true, would be a bombshell: most estimates give production from Ghawar at 5.5 Mb/d.
U.K.: Fuel poverty fear as gas price rise takes effect
Uganda develops plan to cut fuel expenditures
Uganda is developing an urban transport policy that is expected to cut the country's expenditure on fuel. Currently, the country spends Ush500 billion ($270 million) a year.According to German Technical Co-operation, GTZ, the government's consultant, the policy should consider technical options of redesigning existing infrastructure and build cycling and walking lanes in urban centres.
Iran and Japan close to oil deal
As China Spews Pollution, Villagers Rise Up
Environment-related unrest is spreading. It's not about old-growth forests; it's about business practices that are killing people.
China keen on piped Saudi gas via Qatar, Pakistan
Energy-starved China is exploring ways to tap Saudi Arabian gas through a tie up with Gulf-South Asia (GUSA) Gas Company of Qatar that already has a joint venture for a deep sea pipeline with Pakistan.
Taiwan finds huge underwater gas hydrate reserve
aiwan geologists have confirmed the existence of more than 500 billion cubic meters of gas hydrate off the southwest coast, enough to meet the island's gas needs for over 60 years, a government geologist said on Monday.But commercial extraction is likely much more than a decade away as techniques to tap the gas are still being developed, Wang Yunshuen, section chief of the mineral resources section, at the Central Geological Survey.
U.K.: Poor pay most for energy
As demand soars, central Asia's oil and gas reserves are a magnet pulling in the world's powers
India: Oil companies seek 2-year moratorium on drilling
Hit by non-availability of rigs and growing shortage of manpower, oil companies are asking the Government for a two-year moratorium on all drilling and seismic commitments.
Biomass could supply 66% of U.S. gas needs
Food supplies are shrinking alarmingly around the globe, plunging the world into its greatest crisis for more than 30 years. New figures show that this year's harvest will fail to produce enough to feed everyone on Earth, for the sixth time in the past seven years. Humanity has so far managed by eating its way through stockpiles built up in better times - but these have now fallen below the danger level.
'Look for unconventional energy options': Shell's senior economist peers into the future.
Solar is solution to energy crisis
Demand for the refined silicon that is the core component of solar panels, manufactured in just five plants worldwide, has grown so rapidly in the past few years that there is now a two-year lag time in the supply chain. This year for the first time, use of silicon in the manufacture of solar equipment exceeds its use for computer microprocessors.But the full potential of the world's most plentiful and renewable energy source will not be tapped until a new, less energy-intensive non-silicon based technology is invented. Solar experts say that it is only a matter of time, perhaps as little as five to 10 years.
Innovative farmers gear up to beat foreign oil
When Rudolph Diesel introduced his engine at the 1900 Paris World’s Fair, he ran it on peanut oil. Perfect for tractors and electrical generators, he figured, since farmers could grow their own fuel. A few years later Henry Ford unveiled the Model T, designed to run on ethanol for the same reason....The energy-efficient farm, and even the energy self-sufficient farm, are ideas that have been intriguing us since we gave up farming with mules. But with ongoing war in the Middle East, a hurricane wrecking the Gulf oil rigs, increased consumption by India and China, and petroleum prices setting new records nearly every month, those intriguing ideas have suddenly become urgent ones.
I can.
I can also imagine some oil production declines that require much more vigorous responses. Heck, you get a steep enough decline and you'll see democratic governments endorsing societal triage.
... but. In an echo of some of Sailorman's posts today, I'm not sure what the rate of oil production deline will be, and so I cannot out of hand reject anyone's response plan.
Maybe you'll be right and I'll adapt to an oil crash, but if you're wrong, and all it takes is some moderate ajustment, I don't want to be a roadblock.
(if it needs to be repeated, the world "as we know it" gets replaced every 20 years or so, no matter what we do.)
Energy research consultant Daniel Yergin, of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, believes the concerns are widespread.
"Every day," he says, "the head of every major oil company wakes up focusing on how he is going to replace his reserves."
The crisis anticipated by these so-called petro-pessimists is one in which the world returns to the dark ages
Daniel Yergin - a petro-pessimist!
Dave and Westexas want to comment?
I haven't heard the quote. I only listened to the first broadcast. Highly recommended.
When I read your Yergin quote, Euan, my first thought was that the heads of the major oil companies were the pessimists! It couldn't apply to Yergin, right? But your interpretation is no doubt correct.
I am dumbfounded that Tom Mangold could make this mistake.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5305950.stm
His name is no longer in the article.
This is big.
"The technology of today and tomorrow can look better and better at the opportunities," he says. "So far there's no limit on finding oil. The technologies can keep up with finding it, but it gets more and more difficult."
that's reassuring. perhaps he could give us some numbers on his limitless findings... i was lead to believe they have been in decline for a few decades now.
sounds more like a Pr-man on damage control then a geophysicist to me.
There's always the chance for a miracle, but when you're talking about going down 17-18,000 vertical feet, and going out 5 miles, being in temperatures of 350 degrees
The miracle being finding rocks with any porosity and permeability and those depths
From the Times.
''The Human Brain is Hard - Wired to believe in the Supernatural''.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2342421,00.html
My ex-wife sent it to me.
If you want to comment on it, send me e.mail before you post here.
ceojr1963@yahoo.com
One day a group of scientists got together and decided that man had come a long way and no longer needed God. So they picked one scientist to go and tell Him that they were done with Him.
The scientist walked up to God and said, "God, we've decided that we no longer need you. We're to the point that we can clone people and do many miraculous things, so why don't you just go on and get lost?"
God listened very patiently and kindly to the man. After the scientist was done talking, God said, "Very well, how about this? Let's say we have a man-making contest." To which the scientist replied, "Okay, great!"
But, God added, "Now, we're going to do this just like I did back in the old days with Adam."
The scientist said, "Sure, no problem" and bent down and grabbed himself a handful of dirt.
God looked at him and said, "No, no, no. You go get your own dirt."
Nice story. As a "practical working hypothesis" I try to relate God with my own self. For me, "get your own dirt" would be a very practical thing (not always nice and easy, too). It requires me to look inside myself, go down in my deep dark cellar and "get the dirt out". Be honest about my own taboos, the 'not said', my biggest fears, worst frustrations, terrible fantasies and strongest beliefs (like religion).
And then, sometimes, when I discover and investigate an unknown part of this dungeon, and see it for what it is, it becomes lighter. A bit like God shows. I remember moments of utmost clearity, intelligence, fulfilment, connectness with my true self and the world around me when this happened. This little girl knows much more about that.
Finding God in the dirt, how does that relate to Oil/Uranium and it's implications?
p.s. Dan, I left the one personal question out and posted here directly. Email's in my profile ;)
I am an atheist myself, even in foxholes.
But that thing about jinxing a no-hitter by talking about it...it's twue, twue! ;-)
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=35730
Anadarko Petroleum along with BP and Devon announced a lower Tertiary Gulf of Mexico oil discovery at its Kaskida prospect ... encountering 800 net feet of hydrocarbon-bearing sands. The well ... was drilled in 5,860 feet of water to a total depth of approximately 32,500 feet using Transocean's semisub, Deepwater Horizon.
Invisible in the big picture I know, but the deepwater GOM Lower Tertiary play will certainly flatten the US decline curve for another ten years or so.
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060905/323/gl7tu.html
SAN RAMON, Calif (AFX) - Chevron Corp said it has completed the deepest successful well test in the Gulf of Mexico, with the Jack 2 well at Walker Ridge Block 758 drilled to a total depth of 28,175 feet.
...
The test sustained a flow rate of more that 6,000 barrels of crude oil per day with the test representing approximately 40 pct of the total net pay measured in the Jack 2 well, Chevron said.
Chevron said the Jack well was completed and tested in 7,000 feet of water, and more than 20,000 feet under the sea floor, breaking Chevron's 2004 Tahiti well test record as the deepest successful well test in the Gulf of Mexico.
...
Chevron and Devon officials estimate that recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico's lower-tertiary formations hold more than 3 bln barrels' and perhaps as much as 15 bln' worth of oil and gas reserves, the Journal said.
15 billion barrels = 2.5 years of US consumption
They simply removed the two italicized paragraphs (my italics not theirs), apparently without changing anything else including the "last updated" line. Since they are the British Broadcasting Service, perhaps they did so in honor of the "memory hole", first invented by the British author George Orwell.
Google Cache =)
-C.
-C.
I find it interesting that the focus here is on Yergin, not the term "petro-pessimist." Where the hell have I never heard that one before?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/drivenbyoil/pip/krpen/
Played this to my wife - I am finding it very hard to get her to understand the consequences of this.
I wouldn't worry about the Daniel Yergin thing - I don't think actually heard him on the program.
You're not alone. I've sort of given up trying to get through to my wife on this. When one steps out into the "real world" after having looked at (listened to) a PO clip, everything still looks "normal". Life continues as it always has. There are hardly any clues that something big and bad is rolling our way. The clerks at the stores still smile. The pumps at the gas station still pour forth the precious petrol. A huge cognitive disassociation develops.
Somebody has to be wrong. And it can't be all of "them" happy people out there. So it's got to be the one depressed you who has gone stark raving mad. Simple as that.
And there is really nothing you can do but just go one with your life.
As far as I can tell there isn't a practical way to prepare for the crash (soft or hard).
I'm just going along with the charade hoping the peak comes in twenty years, not last year.
Now she refuses to live on the farm anymore and prefers the happy,shiny faces at the shopping malls in the 'burbs' which she has fled back to. She didn't want to hear what doom and gloom I was talking about now.
So ends a 42 year marriage. I am getting ready and she is in denial, well not exactly for she recently survived two back to back coronaries (my health is excellent) and wants , I guess, to make her remaining years memorable and return to her images of how she thinks its supposed to be and to remain so.
She is not about to get out in the fields or gardens,pick peas nor can any produce or sun dry tomatoes. In a way I envy her I suppose. I would prefer the espressos, croissants, lazy shopping and running here and yon on a whim , blowing money like it was nothing,seeing all the latest movies and enjoying the fantasy. Comes the day you have to take a stand and either do something or STFU.
I have always been a realist and her a romantic. It come to a fork in the road.....and so I took it(YogiBerra).
I think this may become more common in the near future but
if its all a lot of BS? Well then I will buy that dreamed of airplane and spend all my time using all the fuel thats in such great supply and that we were all wrong about. It's probably be a single-seater anyway. I don't like backseat fliers anyway.
thank you
and rest assured, the bullshit is in the shopping malls,
not in the fields and gardens
I fear tomorrow's news for many an Intel employee and their families.
After October, the interesting question: what to do next?
- Dick Lawrence
ASPO-USA Boston Conference Coordinator
I miss it greatly but life goes on so I sold my small horse farm and moved back to my home county.
My wife and children though having never been exposed to 'real' rural life just could not encompass it in their life styles.
Mindset: Programmers and engineers saved the country's ass on Y2K. What did we get in return? Off shoring of jobs to other countries and out sourced!!! As a mainframe programmer my skillset became worthless. Thanks corpos.
What can we do for the upcoming redux? Nothing and they brought it on themselves.
We had a shot.
It missed or the finger slipped on the trigger.
As for myself, I realized something was going in the wrong direction when the corp. I worked for refused to let me in on the "newer" 16-bit microprocessor designs. They told me I was too valuable to let go from ongoing 8-bit designs. (That was back in the 1970's. I realized it was time to shift out of engineering because I was going to be obsoleted out of the job no matter what I did. Engineers do not become more valuable as they gray.)
Any word yet on the scope of the Intel layoffs?
What prevented you from adapting your career to persue new opportunities? Why didn't you update your skillset as technology changed? FWIW's I have changed my career directions three times since I graduated and have never been unemployeed nor have I been laid off. Who says you have to always remain as a mainframe programmer or even a programmer? Survival of the fittest doesn't just apply to natural selection it also applied to employment. Adapt to the changing environment and you won't have to worry about unemployement. The only trick to remain ahead of the curve, and when to see the corporate train wreck/iceburg ahead find a lifeboat and seek employment else where (doing something else if neccessary), just has you're doing to prepare for PO.
Good Luck to you.
You are probably a re