 | And how is Saudi Arabia getting on? (or more evidence of a deteriorating situation...) | The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Salvation? |  |
DrumBeat: January 4, 2007
Posted by threadbot on January 4, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Texas: Lawmakers vow help with gas, electricity costs
"Last summer was very difficult for many Texans. The combination of record heat and record-high electricity prices pushed many families to the brink," said Tim Morstad, advocacy director for AARP-Texas. "We feel that this legislative session there will be increased opportunity to make some reforms to the deregulated electric markets.""Every member I talk to is getting calls from their constituents," said House Regulated Industries Chairman Phil King, R-Weatherford. "We want to do something about it."
Ukraine survives despite gas price hike. (Interesting how different this story is from the British one the other day. I guess businesses are doing fine, the people...not so much. ;-)
John Michael Greer: Principles for sustainable tech
Beyond its practical uses, however, the slide rule has more than a little to teach about what sustainable technology looks like. It is quite literally pre-industrial technology – the basic principle was worked out in 1622 by Rev. William Oughtred, though it took many years of evolution after that to produce the handy ten-inch device with multiple scales that played so important a role in 19th and 20th century science and engineering. Set a slide rule side by side with an electronic calculator and certain points stand out.
Belarus slaps export duty on Russia oil
MINSK: Belarus imposed export duty on Russian oil crossing its territory yesterday - with a potential impact on oil markets - as President Alexander Lukashenko hit back at Moscow in an energy row.
Oil-Thirsty China Strives For Persian Petroleum
Iran is endowed with abundant crude oil and natural gas reserves, and perhaps being equipped with nuclear weapons is only a tool to protect its most in-demand asset. Shall we trust Tehran?
Nigeria: Agip's Plan to Help Hostages Escape Fails
Renewable energy -- wind power, biomass, solar cells, hydro generation and the like -- is the mantra of energy independence advocates. But such energy resources are projected to grow at just 1.5 percent per year through 2030, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.Demand for energy is expected to grow at the same rate. At best, renewable energy sources are a wash when it comes to becoming energy self-sufficient. Twenty-five years from now, the U.S. energy portfolio will look much like it does today, with fossil fuels providing 86 percent of our energy needs.
Our consumption of oil, given the threats it poses to our national security, its impact on our economy and most importantly on our environment, evidences one of the sad shortcomings of our governance and public discourse. Not a single nuclear energy plant has been built in this country since the 1970's.
While McMansion bans have been proposed in many cities—and have succeeded in a few—what Portland and Vancouver, and to some extent Seattle, are doing is more difficult and more interesting. They’re inventing mechanisms that say yes to small instead of no to big.Recently Portland and Vancouver established zoning and design guidelines to encourage the development of smaller houses, as long as they meet exacting design criteria. A new program in Vancouver that falls under the mayor’s overall policy of “eco-density” encourages the reconfiguration of lots in certain single-family districts. In Portland a new set of ordinances and guidelines seeks to promote “skinny houses,” intended to fit lots less than 36 feet wide.
Poor harvests and biofuel demand trigger wheat shortages and fuel big Irish bread price rises
Poor harvests in Australia, the Ukraine, Argentina and North America have dramatically increased the cost of wheat. Prices have surged to ten year highs as world wheat stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in 25 years and a drought in Australia has threatened to cut its harvest in half.
4 families 'Go Green': Here's how these homeowners got a little more eco-friendly.
Australia: Bike sales outstrip cars
BICYCLE sales outpaced car and truck sales in 2006, as more Australians turned to pedal-power to cut petrol bills.
California Cow Power: Poop Pays
Cow power can make money for dairies and make them energy self-sufficient as well as provide electricity to the grid. But - there's always a but - the Byzantine regulatory structure that favors entrenched utilities is frustrating the widespread adoption of bovine biogas.
Eco-friendly trains to connect north and south Taiwan
TAICHUNG, Taiwan: The sleek, bulbous-nosed new bullet trains here look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces; but on this congested island, they represent the start of a 300-kilometer-per- hour commuter train system.
Wal-Mart readies large-scale move into solar power
...one person who saw the proposal said that if completed, it could amount to a significantly large installation--on the order of 100 megawatts of power over the next five years.
Price drop hits ConocoPhillips
Oil giant says refining and marketing margins were significantly lower, but production levels should hold steady.
To prevent massive pollution and slow its growing contribution to global warming, China will need to make advanced coal technology work on an unprecedented scale.
2006 saw wave energy get hearing
LINCOLN CITY — Move over solar and make way wind, because wave power is on the horizon and international energy companies along with local governments are lining up to cash in when the market crests. |
|
Ukraine: Possible Energy Solution In Coal Beds
In the wake of Ukraine's announced plans to reduce its dependence on imported natural gas by using more coal for power generation, Ukraine's own enormous reserves of methane have been touted as a better alternative. The problem is finding a way to harness it.
New oil sands drilling system unveiled: Small and fast unit ideal for oil sands exploration
Second Annual Indiana Energy Conference
The purpose of the Indiana Energy Conference is to bring people together to raise awareness and discuss our culture's systemic dependence on oil, and how the forthcoming reduction in global oil extraction will affect our community. This is the most critical discussion of our time.
A Country Less Dependent on Oil Is Free to Make Other New Year’s Resolutions
Well, another New Year’s Day has come and gone. A string of holiday meals and sitting on the couch have, no doubt, started another wave of resolutions to get some exercise and go on a diet. But after seeing gas prices pass $3 a gallon last year, hearing all the talk about global warming and having a bad feeling about all the bluster coming from the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a great many folks wish the economy would go on a diet, too, and stop using so much energy.
Intelligent Growth: A Vision for a New Low-Energy Economy
I think that we need to distinguish between two fundamentally distinct kinds of growth. There is the suicidal growth that our mainstream culture is so hell-bent on pursuing, predicated on the limitless extraction of our Earth's wild resources and the continual disabling of her ability to absorb pollution, stabilize soils, regulate the world's climate and operate a whole gamut of "ecosystem services." The alternative is "intelligent growth," which recognizes that we must move towards a global steady-state economy in which the living standards in the south would grow while those of the north decline until both converge on a steady and equitable per capita share of whatever benefits the Earth can spare us.
Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: 2006 in Review
The most notable event affecting the advent of peak oil during 2006 was, most likely, the great summer price spike. Oil started the year around $62 a barrel, steadily increased to just below $80 and then fell to close out the year about where it started. Now there are a number of observations that can be made about this spike.
Australia warming faster than world
The seriousness of Australia’s environmental problems was underlined Wednesday with the release of data showing that the country appears to be experiencing the effects of global warming more deeply than other parts of the world.
Gas from Norway Could Reduce Dependency on Russia
Western Europe's dependence on Russia's natural gas reserves has been a constant source of worry. A new facility being built in Norway to liquify the precious energy source could provide some relief from Russian dependency.
Fuelling a Food Crisis: The impact of peak oil on food security
DWINDLING oil stocks and EU trade and energy policies threaten food price hikes – and could cause the UK to be vulnerable to food shortages for the first time since the Second World War, according to a new report by Green Party Euro-MP Caroline Lucas.
It is no exaggeration to say that we are facing the largest human crisis since at least the nuclear arms race. Of course, instead of building up nuclear warheads, we are building up carbon dioxide....But the global warming crisis is linked with another that will influence solutions: resource depletion on a small planet. How we react to such crises will determine whether the Earth will be able to support large numbers of our species.
College officials began looking into alternative fuel sources when oil and natural gas prices started to rise. Also, concern about a “peak oil situation where oil isn’t going to last much longer” factored into the decision to invest in the new boiler, Augustin said.
Once the domain of hippies, whose off-the-grid escape doubled as an anti-establishment rebuke, renewable energy is now a pillar of California politics. In recent months alone, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has signed the California Solar Initiative, which aims to help bring solar power to a million rooftops, as well as a landmark greenhouse-gas reduction law.
Himalaya's receding glaciers suffer neglect
NEW DELHI – Billions of people in China and the Indian subcontinent rely on South Asia's Himalayan glaciers - the world's largest store of fresh water outside the polar ice caps. The massive ice floes feed seven of the world's greatest Asian rivers in one of the world's most densely populated regions.Yet as global climate change slowly melts glaciers from Africa to the Andes, scientists say the glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at a rate of about 33 to 49 feet each year - faster than in any other part of the world.
..."The power grid in Uttarkashi is constantly breaking down and that's because of the rise in sediment in the water being used at the hydro-power projects," says Joseph Thsetan Gergan from the WADIA Institute of Himalayan Glaciology, a part of the Indian Department of Science and Technology. "When the power breaks down, the people blame the Geological Survey of India or the Central Water Commission for not doing its work properly, but that's like thinking of digging a well when your house is already on fire."
Natural resources juggernaut Gazprom has scored yet another victory in its gas pricing war, gaining 50 percent of the Belarusian pipeline network. The deal demonstrates Gazprom's ruthlessness in securing power over neighboring former Soviet satellite states and raises questions about how reliable the Russian company is as an energy supplier to western Europe.
Québec Sees the Energy Tide Turn
Canada is America, but it is not the United States. Many of my countrymen take the attitude that there is but one voice in English-speaking North America, and that we somehow have a right to the adjoining boreal territory and its resources.This raises the question, then: What of French-speaking Canada?
Spinoff Spectra's shares debut higher
HOUSTON - Spectra Energy, a spinoff of power producer Duke Energy, was making a successful debut Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange as one of the three largest natural gas transmission companies in North America.
Climate 'benefits' for UK farming
A project that highlights the economic opportunities, as well as the environmental threats, from climate change has been launched for farmers.
Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet
LONDON - A resurgent El Nino and persistently high levels of greenhouse gases are likely to make 2007 the world's hottest year ever recorded, British climate scientists said Thursday.
Economic News Update:
Retailers post disappointing Dec. sales
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economic...
US weekly jobless claims up 10,000 to 329,000
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economic...
Crude prices dropping mostly from lower demand forecast in the US?
Yes, but it may not be due entirely to the weather. The lead story over at http://www.marketwatch.com right now is
Copper, commodities sell-off may signal slowdown
Being at the heart of a major retail operation (that speaks to retailers across the USA), I would have to agree with this assessment.
There are a lot of indicators pointing to a major slowdown in retail this year.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dead?
http://pajamasmedia.com/2007/01/supreme_leader_ayatollah_ali_k.php
New prospect for US: glut of ethanol plants
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0105/p01s04-wmgn.html
Oh good god man, your buying into the MSM spin on this one. Oh noez, our sales were up only 2.3% this year, some pencil pushing number crunching junkie on the 5th floor said it should have been 2.5%, were doooooomed. You didn't even read the part where retailers only post numbers on items sold during the holidays, and ignore gift cards until they are redeemed. As more people buy gift cards, sales are going to continue to 'disapoint', as you cant have growth in both markets at the same time.
And as for the jobless claims, I'm actually amused at how you chose to spin it. Any time the numbers come out better then expected, you dismiss it as unsustainable, but a 10,000 jump is herald as the beginning of the end. Get real man, a 10,000 increase means nothing, considering how volatile the job data is every week.
Of course it is not doom. But it IS a slowdown, particularly when you dig in a bit deeper and discover that there was very substantial discounting going on to reach even the 2.5% increase, which will be reflected as much lower profit margins. Gift cards....hmmm that one is a double edged sword, don't you see it? It's another form of cash: people use them as they see fit and abstain from "double-buying". Example: someone gives you a sweater that you didn't need, so you toss it in the closet and eventually you buy that trinket you really desired, yourself. Result: double sale. But if you get "cash" you go out and exchange it for the trinket. Result: single sale. That is why retailers are not super-thrilled with gift cards...Net-net it was a flat Xmas and even Bush knew it during his press conference ("...I encourage you to go out and shop some more..").
Jobless claims..10.000 is noise.
Hoth: These are nominal dollar amounts. With money supply growth estimated from 4-11%, these are actual retail sales declines.
Last I saw, M3 reconstructed (nov06) is at 11%.
The government CPI data through November shows a 2.6% inflation rate for 2006. We can argue whether that is understated versus reconstructed M3 or not but even taking this extremely low inflation number we see that inflation exceeded increases in sales, hence the disappointment - the year was a net loser for merchants.
Since you conveniently "forgot" to factor in CPI, you get to trumpet an apparent growth rate. In reality the data taken as a whole indicates a flat economy, or one even potentially contracting slightly. Once again, we catch Hothgor massaging the data to his own ends.
The Economist's All Items index as of the December 2nd issue had risen 35.4% y/y. As of the week of 12/22, the same index is showing at 34.8% y/y. The food index was 27.2% on 12/2, and 25.4% the week of 12/22.
Now tell me there is low inflation.
The CPI is garbage with its hedonic adjustments, substitutions, and core rate crap.
Which brings us to the Austrian (and correct IMHO) definition of inflation as an increase in the money supply, ie credit. Its truly that simple.
...in which case the inflation rate for the US in the 12mo. period ended Sep.30 2006 was exactly 10% - that is how much total credit (debt) increased, as per the Fed.
Hothgor, no one is buying into anything. Two articles were posted for us to review. That was all. Stop with the rants, we don't need them.
Yes, we all know why she posted these two economic articles of the 50 released today. The others didn't fit the doomer agenda. Here is proof of the 2007 Recession for the idiots that didn't click the link...
And (real) inflation adjusted sales:
And for the idiots that tried to discuss inflation ... forgeddaboutit ... not worth the effort.
And for those who know nothing about money supply:
I think you should refrain of calling people names, Freddy. It makes you a uninteresting troll.
"It is no exaggeration to say that we are facing the largest human crisis since at least the nuclear arms race."
So when, exactly, did the threat from nuclear arms fade away?
The threat from all-out thermonuclear warfare faded to almost nothing with the end of the Cold War. That was a real threat--worse than Peak Oil and global warming combined--and we got past it.
So Russia and the U.S. have a bunch of H-bombs, big deal; neither country is about to use them. Pakistan and various countries have a few little atomic bombs they can (and probably someday will) use on their neighbors, but this limited nuclear warfare is infinitesimally small potatoes compared to what thermonuclear ping pong between the old Soviet Union and the U.S. would have been.
See "Dr. Strangelove" again; they don't make films that good anymore.
I'm only about 5 years younger than you, so I remember well the 'duck-and
Damn .... have some sort of problem on this end, and my post got cut off again. Will try later.
Well do I remember August 1961 when the Berlin Wall went up and U.S. troops were mobilized and put on highest alert status. I was working at Sharpe General Depot then, and it was a zoo: Bumper to bumper convoys of trucks for seventy-two hours shipping out everything to military bases to reduce the threat to supplies stored at the General Depot--a prime Soviet target itself and not far from some big SAC bases that were targeted by multiple ICBMs and also the Soviet bomber force.
Then came Oct. 1962 and the Cuban missle crisis, when the passenger planes were filled with panicked Americans shipping their children off to Mexico; for days you could not get a ticket, because the planes were all full, and many Californians loaded up the car and drove down to Baja.
Ah, the Good Old Days--how soon people forget.
Ah, I think my posting problem has gone away.
As I was saying, I am about 5 years younger than you and so remember the 'duck-and-cover' peak Cold War era quite well.
The biggest fear of many people was getting nuked by the Ruskies, and it wasn't an irrational fear either. Given that the US and the Soviet Union had many thousands of nuclear warheads on hair-trigger alert angrily pointed at each other for roughly 40 years, I consider it a miracle that something didn't pop at some time. Well, it almost did. Perhaps the Cuban Missile Crisis sufficiently scared the crap out of the leaders of both countries for them to cool it a bit.
However, I am not as sanguine as you are about the reduced threat of a nuclear exchange. As the number of nuclear players increases, I think the chances of something going bad increases greatly. The threat is still there. If you recall, it has been reported that certain elements of the Bush regime wanted to use nuclear bunker busters on Iran's underground uranium enrichment facilities until the idea was shot down by the Pentagon brass.
Then of course we have the threat from plain old screw-ups. If I recall correctly, sometime in the 1980s Norway tested a missile in the arctic and duly notified the Russians that such a test was to be performed in such and such a place on such and such a date. Well, due to a bureaucratic snafu, the message never got through to the Soviet equivalent of NORAD. When the test was conducted, the entire Soviet air defense system lit up like a Christmas tree, and it's entire missile system was put on highest alert. If the misunderstanding had not been straightened out in time, who knows what would have happened.
MAD does indeed work, but it also poses an inherently high danger of something happening through error. Parachuting out of a plane with only one chute is really not all that dangerous. But if you do it everyday of the year, the odds will almost certainly catch up with you and one day you'll be splattered like a bug. I think the same thing is true with a MAD deterence. Sooner or later......
What worries me also is that there are certain people in power in various countries who are not afraid of a 'limited' nuclear exhange. I view a limited nuclear exchange the same as a 'limited' cafeteria food fight. There is no such thing. It starts off with a single stringbeam being tossed from one table to another, and in a matter of seconds there are whole plates of food flying across the room and the entire place is a mess.
Dr. Strangelove ... great movie!
"Duck and cover!" Ah, these young whippersnappers don't know what they have missed . . . memories of fourth grade. . .
1. When the siren sounds draw blinds and get away from windows to avoid broken glass.
2. Curl up into a tight foetal position under desk or table and close eyes very tight (to avoid being blinded by the flash).
3. When the flash comes, bend over as far as you can and kiss your sweet little tuchis goodbye.
Yeah, young people seem to think there are things to worry about these days . . . .
Well, now we have new forms of brinksmanship.
And "Failsafe"
Wow! Oil just broke below the 1.5 Yergin level ($57). How low can it go?
Will Yergin be right in 2007 about $38 oil?
I think it all depends on whether a recession materializes or not.
I think it all depends on whether Winter materializes or not.
NY's December snowless for first time in 129 years
Leanan: I can top that. Toronto, land of the polar bear and musk ox, was snowless in Dec and early Jan (okay, once I used a broom on the sidewalk). Amazing. I would guess it helps the rentals of Al Gore's movie.
Not a scrap of ice in the canals, even the smallest, and not a flake of snow on the ground in St. Petersburg. In forest hollows you can still find a patch or two ...
Aha! Just as I thought: Global warming is a Russian plot to benefit their own cold country. You wanted warm-water ports, and now you have them . . . .:-)
Murmansk and Archangel were wide open all last winter and will be this year as well.
Here in the Soutwest of Sweden temperatures have been above or high above average since early summer. An almost mediterranian summer that went on well into what would normally be fall, followed by a mild, windy and very rainy fall with no winter still in sight as I write this. Floods and storms just to make the point clear to even the most dumb-witted. I can tell you that 2006 is the year that the reality of global warming really made the mainstream here in Sweden.
How quickly people forget :) ...it reached $55 in November.
I continue to be intrigued by the relationship between Brent and the dollar that I posted on before.
EVERY DAY, since August 15th 2006, the dollar-adjusted 100 day moving average of the Brent front contract has dropped by a consistent amount. Never up, only down. This was during a time that the oil prices generally declined, but still fluctuated up and down (E.g.down to $55, back up to $63). The current down slope has held since November 22nd at between .10 and .13 per day. Before that, a consistent downslope manifested since Aug 15th.
Without speculating as to the cause - be it manipulation or emergent subtle complex market interactions or whatever, we can currently predict (as long as the trend holds) the daily closing Brent front contract price using the following formula:
Bc = Brent Closing Price
Dc = Todays Dollar Index (From the Federal Reserve data published at 5pm)
Bm = 100 Day Moving Average of Bc * Dc
Bc = (Bm - sum(Last 99 days of Bc*Dc)/100 - 0.12)/Dc (using a daily drop of .12
For today, assuming the dollar index to stay the same as yesterday (0.81687) this predicts Brent to close at $56.34. (i.e. Bc * Dc = 46.0)
Note that the predicted Brent value is extremely sensitive to the assumed drop in the moving average (range .10 thru .13 observed), giving a Brent closing price ranging from $55.11 (drop of .13) to $58.79 (drop of .10). So no one is going to make money on this day trading :-)
The intriguing thing is of course that Brent closes as 12pm EST and the dollar index only becomes available at 5pm EST.
I will update later today with the actual values
Brent came in at exactly $56.34. We have to wait for 5 pm EST to find out what the dollar index for the day will be.