DrumBeat: January 3, 2007
Posted by threadbot on January 3, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Science activists blast ExxonMobil on warming
Alden Meyer, the Union of Concerned Scientists’ strategy and policy director, said in a teleconference that ExxonMobil based its tactics on those of tobacco companies, spreading uncertainty by misrepresenting peer-reviewed scientific studies or cherry-picking facts.Dr. James McCarthy, a professor at Harvard University, said the company has sought to “create the illusion of a vigorous debate” about whether humans are behind global warming.
Iran Cuts Gas Supplies To Turkey To Meet Domestic Demand
Iranian authorities say the country has stopped supplying natural gas to neighboring Turkey in order to meet growing demand at home this winter, Radio Farda reports.Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said he had apologized to Turkey's energy minister but added that he hoped the opening of a major gas refinery in Iran's southern Fars Province by the end of this week would help solve the problem.
Eleven of Iran's provinces are currently facing gas shortages, including some of the coldest areas like Kurdistan, Zanjan, and East and West Azerbaijan, according to Radio Farda.
An interview with Subdivided filmmaker Dean Terry
There was a higher and higher crime rate over there, constantly, and the response is, you know, more security systems, big bars on the windows, instead of what like Robert Putnam says, the leading social scientist in this whole area, who I interviewed - he has this thing in there, the number one determiner for the crime rate is how many people in the neighborhood know each others' first names. Not how many police, not how many alarms - we need to figure out ways to strengthen our community bonds, rather than figure out ways to create higher walls and more gates and all those kinda things. It just doesn't work: all you do is lock yourself in and become more fearful, and what you really should be striving for is to be more open to each other, rather than more closed.
Most widely read at PeakOil.com 2006
Here are the best read stories from Peakoil.com newsboards throughout 2006. Stories have been arranged according to month, to counterbalance the advantage older stories might have over newer ones. Unforunately, it should be noted that stories may not always be available at their original sources anymore.Nevertheless, the list makes for an interesting, let's say, undulating plateau between hope (biggest ever oil field off US coast), disbelief (CERA: "Peak Oil" theory is wrong) and despair (Fiscal crisis for Mexico as oil starts to dry up).
The peak oil story during 2006
Key factors behind 2006’s production reality (using O&GJ data):• Depletion continues to overwhelm new production in the North Sea (-9.6%);
• Most regions were flat (Asia-Pacific +0.6%, Africa -0.2%, Western Hemisphere -0.4%);
• Only Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union increased substantially (+4.3%);
• OPEC increased 0.7%, though production in Iran and Saudi Arabia declined; Iran has genuine production problems, while Saudi Arabia claims they cut production voluntarily.
So the key question here: have we reached peak production? We maintain that it’s too early to tell. ASPO-USA won’t be surprised if production of total liquids increases moderately over the next few years. However, for that to occur, we would expect that some disturbing recent trends-from geologic limits to nationalism and geopolitics-would have to slow if not reverse. But more importantly, we assert that the combination of difficulties posed by peak oil production are sufficiently challenging that we should act on that information now rather than delaying action based on hopes offered by optimists.
The Top Renewable Energy Stories of 2006
OPEC Output Cut Seen as Key to Oil Prices in 2007
For oil traders returning to trading pits on Wednesday, the new year begins with something that hasn't preoccupied them in years: OPEC production cuts.
Enlarged Membership to Boost OPEC's Clout on Oil Market
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started enlargement for the first time in over 30 years by admitting Angola at the beginning of 2007, and was poised to tighten the cartel's grip on world oil market.
The $20 drop has given consumers a false sense that the parabolic rise in oil prices is over. This couldn't be further from the truth. While it's likely we'll continue to see some weakness in the sector over the next few months, the long-term fundamentals are still in place that could propel oil prices over the magical $100 mark.
America’s healthcare predicament will be resolved in the context of the worldwide energy emergency idiomatically known as “peak oil.”
Europe Wary of Implications of Sakhalin Loan
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is likely to abandon a loan to Sakhalin II, the huge energy project in the far east of Russia, after Royal Dutch Shell PLC and its two partners were forced to sell a 50% stake in the venture to Russian natural-gas giant OAO Gazprom. The European development bank -- set up in 1991 by Western governments to support the private sector in former Communist states making the transition to a free market economy -- had planned to lend Sakhalin II about $300 million.
Within OPEC there are pro-American group and anti-American group. As oil and gas needs rise in coming years, Russia and anti-American OPEC groups will join hands. That may include Venezuela, Iran and so on. There will be two distinct groups under two superpower blocks. First the pro-American Western and Middle Eastern group of nation. Then there will Russia led block of countries.
South Korea’s trade surplus shrinks sharply in 2006
SEOUL –– South Korea posted a 28 percent drop in its trade surplus last year despite record-high exports, the government said Monday....Imports were fueled by high energy and raw material prices, it said.
Nigeria: OPS Raises Alarm On Fuel Prices
The Organised Private Sector (OPS) yesterday raised alarm over current high cost of petroleum products resulting from acute scarcity warning that the trend if unchecked would spell doom for the industrial sector and private businesses.
Iraq Government Focusing on Rebuilding Oil Industry
Oil sector continues to miss opportunities
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) made a mistake when it missed several good investment opportunities and disposed of its productive centers in 2006, says oil expert Hajjaj Bukhadour.One of the most important shortcomings faced by the oil sector in 2006 was the decline in the level of maintenance of oil installations in spite of the millions of dinars spent for this purpose, he adds.
2007 Could Be The Year of Biomethane
Biomethane, chemically the same as natural gas yet available from essentially any kind of organic waste, is emerging as a viable renewable alternative to fossil fuels.
Australia: Minister explores tidal power
Biofuels have been approved for commercial sale in France as of 1 January 2007, says the French Finance Ministry. The plan calls for new pumps to be installed at between 500 and 600 points of sale before the end of the year. According to Le Monde, "green fuel" containing up to 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline should be available in "stations-service classiques" by September.
The New Energy Debates: Will the new Congress act to change our disastrous energy policy?
James Kunstler: Forecast For the Year Ahead
The major trend on the oil scene the past 12 months is the apparent inability of the world to lift total production above 85 million barrels a day — with demand now rising above that line. It is unclear how much more demand destruction will come out of the Third World before bidding intensifies between the developed nations. One commentator in particular, Dallas geologist Jeffrey Brown — a frequent contributor on the web's best oil debate site, TheOilDrum.com — is advancing the idea that we are entering an oil export crisis that will presage a more general permanent world-wide oil emergency. Brown holds that the major oil exporting nations are using so much of their own product, because of rising populations, that their net exports are falling at an alarming rate, perhaps as much as 9 percent annually
Heating costs forecast to drop
Home heating bills this month will drop 10 percent below January 2006, despite expectations that customers will use more natural gas to combat a colder winter this year, Pacific Gas and Electric Co. said Tuesday.The San Francisco-based utility said its customers can expect to save $12.37 on average. It credited long-term purchasing contracts that avoid price spikes and its pipeline and storage capacity for helping keep prices down.
New Zealand: Commissioner calls for more local power
Promoting local and small-scale generation would bring "greater resilience" to New Zealand's electricity system at a time when climate change and fears over peak oil had heightened concerns about the security of supplies.
"Peak Oil" Despair Versus Energy Innovation
In fine Seattle fashion, the group wants to dialog about "the emotional, spiritual and philosophical ramifications of life-altering resource scarcities." That may yield ambient methane, but developing real energy alternatives take systematic innovation and capital, not vegan potluck hand-wringing. One entirely more more constructive approach is plug-in hybrid vehicles which run on conventional fuel and electricity stored during off-peak down times.
Nabors warns profit to miss estimates
Nabors Industries Ltd. warned on Wednesday its fourth-quarter earnings would fall short of Wall Street estimates as weakening gas prices cooled demand for its drilling rigs.
Animal fats touted as future fuel source
DEXTER, Mo. - Jerry Bagby is typical of the oil men who are prospecting for a fortune in the Midwestern biofuels boom. He's convinced there's oil in these hills — and he's found a well that no one else is using.Bagby and a longtime friend have cobbled together $5 million to build a new biodiesel plant on the lonely croplands outside this southeast Missouri town. They're betting they can hit paydirt by exploiting a generally overlooked natural resource that's abundant in these parts — chicken fat.



Lessons for Peak Oil from Framing of the Climate Change Debate?
COMMUNICATING CLIMATE CHANGE: Revkin Describes an "Invisible Middle" of Scientists Concerned Over 'Pandora's Box' Claims of Pending Catastrophe
Communication professor Matthew Nisbet's Framing Science blog comments on Middle Stance Emerges in Debate Over Climate from the 1/1/07 New York Times
FWIW: Real Climate: "Climate Science from Climate Scientists" blog's take on the New York Times article: Consensus as the New Heresy
Prometheus:"The Science Policy Weblog" post Real Climate Comment as comment to above blog post.
Climate Science: "Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog" post A Breath Of Fresh Air In the Media On Climate Reporting - An Interview and Article By Andy Revkin
Gristmill: "Environmental News and Commentary" story My problem with Revkin's article
Chris Mooney's The Intersection blog comment What Does "Non-Skeptic Heretic" Mean?
And there are probably more posts in here someplace.
The suggestion that chicken fat should become a major fuel source is idiotic - uh, yeah, because factory farms and its animal concentration camps are soooooo environmentally efficient. Not. If humans are going to survive with an environment in tact - the mass "production" of animals must be phased out. If you look at the facts, it is hard to think of a more destructive industry - the products are very energy/water intensive, create incredible amounts of waste and enviromental destruction, directly cause most chronic diseases, causing untold human as well as animal suffering... but hey, I guess if you don't care about the planet, biodiversity, people, or animals, it's a darn good idea! Incredibly destructive companies like Tyson are just not going to survive energy descent, unless they morph into something sustainable and beneficial (good luck on that).
http://www.veganoutreach.org/whyvegan/environment.html
The suggestion that chicken fat should become a major fuel source is idiotic - uh, yeah, because factory farms and its animal concentration camps are soooooo environmentally efficient.
The other thing missing from the story is that those guys are wrong: Chicken fat is being utilized for biofuels. In fact, contracts are being inked right now to use waste animal fat in biodiesel production.
Rendering is an ancient business. I think maybe because it is not something we talk about in polite industrial society, we forget that it's out there, and assume "waste."
The interesting thing might be that fuel uses might pull rendered fats from their traditional uses, whatever they might be.
BTW, I just noticed that my canned Organic Black Beans from Trader Joe's, actually come from China. Should I have a moment of panic as I think of "organic" and "china?"
Given what I've read of pollution in China, I am trying to avoid all foods from China. That's in addition to the other reasons, such as trying to eat more locally.
I'm glad you made this excellent point on rendering. To often we assume it's "waste", ie landfill, and don't realize the myriad of uses that carcasses and trimmings are put to. Perhaps it will help to increase the price paid for the material.
It's hard to term anything organic as waste. Yet a side point of recent trends I've noticed in rendering is the increasing difficulty, no doubt also fuel related, in getting the rendering truck. Times past I could just call, and it'd be here within a couple days. Now you have too be "on their route"-have a weekly or monthly pickup. It's very diffecult to get an on-farm pickup. So the animal rots in the field, where the coyotes and magpies clean it up. Which is just as well, the price never amounted to a hill of beans.
Last year while touting the merits of the CSA I belong to, I found a few cans of these TJ's Organic beans stamped "China" in my cupboard. It was very frustrating to see that, as a can of these can be added to just about any meal. I've stopped buying them, since even if "organic" means the same in China (I'm very skeptical of that one), the trip around the world probably canceled out any benefit to the planet by buying organic. Since then I have found them with and without the China stamp on them. I wonder if this means that the ones not stamped are from the states (probably CA), or just that they don't have the stamp?
I personally will not buy anything labelled Organic that is not produced in the country that I am purchasing it in.
- Environmental benefits are cancelled out or worse
- Quality control or even "what is organic" is unclear
- one does not know what controls are there at the grower/packager level or in the supply chain to ensure that the product was indeed organic
In addition to China and others I believe that in Europe too there was some recent loosening of organic standards.
Also various special interest groups have succeded in preventing passage of labelling rules that would have forced retailers to label and stand behind country of origin labels - so
- read all lables carefully (when available)
- let the buyer beware
I would say that buy organic but try and ensure that it was produced as locally as possible - and definitely within your particular national border.
Well, finally something about which I feel qualified to add something to the discussion! Beans!
As an vegetarian and mostly organic house w/ two smallish kids, we found ourselves going through copious amounts of organic, canned beans--from TJ's and elsewhere. We were even buying by the case! Then, after very good luck making our own soymilk on a regular basis (see http://www.soymilkmaker.com/ ) we thought we'd try our long-forgotten crock pot...
Long story short: the cheapest, best-tasting, low-salt, perfectly cooked pinto, black turtle and pinto beans you've ever had! AND, we figure the small amount of electricity used for cooking is better than all of the energy to process and can and transport that can from ???. (Yeah, I know the beans themselves were trucked, but hey, we're tryin!)
Want to try it? Three cups cleaned, dry beans of your choice. Eight cups of water. Pinch of salt. Cook in your crock pot on high while you sleep--wake up to awsome beans. It really couldn't be any easier, plus, we've always (usually) got cooked beans ready to rip (!) in the fridge whenever we need them.
I must repeat how much tastier these are compared to any canned bean.
Salud!
Thanks, I'll try a smaller batch in my smaller crockpot ... which only has one speed.
Odograph,
I have two crockpots, one of which usually has a scrumptious batch of chilli con carne in it; the other one alternates between cabbage and potato soup (with soup bones) and whatever else I feel like, such as chicken with organic brown rice.
In the winter time I can keep crockpots outside (covered from inquiring animals) instead of the refrigerator when space gets scarce. One nice thing about my two-crockpot system is that whenever people stop buy unexpectedly, there are always a few quarts of soup for them--that combined with my most excellent homemade bread (organic stone-ground whole wheat flour) makes me a nearly permanently prepared host at very little effort. (Bread freezes very well and can be quickly thawed in the microwave.)
Delicious crockpot food not only can be cheap and nutritious, I have found that it helps me in weight loss, because "real" food is far more satisfying than the typical U.S. junk food diet.
Robert:
(Hijacking a bit here) Any comment on these 2 stories on corn-based ethanol that are being put out to farmers? Given the political clout coming into alignment here (Archer Daniels Midland, Khosla, the farm vote and the mantra of independence from ME crude oi), I read this as a steam roller for corn ethanol to the deteriment of sound energy policy and investment in advancing other alternatives, such as PHEVs.
Your juxtaposition of ethanol producers with those calling for energy independence is misleading.
What some politicians and activist groups espouse is a far cry from the reality on the ground and no one in the ethanol community is saying energy independence can be met with ethanol alone.
Ethanol and biofuels in particular, are but one important part of a total, overall solution to mitigate the liquid transportation fuel crisis that is Peak Oil.
Khosla and other proponnents such as myself who believe ethanol to be sound energy policy, have gone to great lengths to explain that corn ethanol is but one step in an ongoing drive to a more efficient and higher yielding production path.
And in the case of PHEVs, I have personally advocated the procession to Bio-PHEVs where R&D and investment monies for both technologies is warranted.
My apologies for applying too broad a brush. I meant to refer specifically to congressional policy making and funding decisions. Given the current political and fiscal environment, I doubt that their planning and funding horizons will extend much beyond the 2008 presidential election and that their thinking will be fairly shallow. Rather, I expect they will stop at the first solution appearing to fall within the boundaries of the calculus of the 2008 vote and corn-based ethanol fermentation appears to do that, irrespective of its EROEI or the potential of other solutions.
Yes, unfortunately that is one of the drawbacks of the US political system, however, there are some new elements in 07' that should affect the decision making process, namely, the transition to a Democrat run House and Senate.
Domesitc energy security is very much a non-partisan topic and coupled with a likely guest appearance in this year's State of the Union, the Dems will be also forced into substantiating their Energy Independence platform. Of course they will soon discover the reality of the situation at hand and thankfully there are dedicated people behind the scenes at NREL and similar US institutions like INL and PNWL who have the necessary expertise to show them what is actually doable.
Yes, unfortunately that is one of the drawbacks of the US political system, however, there are some new elements in 07' that should affect the decision making process, namely, the transition to a Democrat run House and Senate.
Domesitc energy security is very much a non-partisan topic and coupled with a likely guest appearance in this year's State of the Union, the Dems will be also forced into substantiating their Energy Independence platform. Of course they will soon discover the reality of the situation at hand and thankfully there are dedicated people behind the scenes at NREL and similar US institutions like INL and PNNL who have the necessary expertise to show them what is actually doable.
This also spells trouble for the pet-food industry. It may get very expensive to keep Fido or Tabby in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
I wouldn't be surprised, as we go down the backslope of PO, to see a drop in the number of songbirds as millions of backyard bird feeders are left empty because of non-existent or limited bird-seed supplies.
Or , as the song goes: 'four and twenty blackbirds baked in a pie...''
I mostly agree with veganmaster on this issue. The first world definitely consumes far more meat than it should, and that meat is produced in a scarily destructive, and morally questionable way. Grain consuming animals are especially suspect for food production. Because their feed isn't easily consumed by humans, ruminants can occupy some higher ground, except that the conventional system feeds them grain anyway. But making a higher value product from animal fats that are going to be produced anyway isn't that bad of an idea, especially if it will counter some fossil fuel use. (Whether it does reduce fossil fuel use is an important point.)
More importantly, lets not lump all livestock production into the same category as the dominant conventional form. One can produce and consume meat in an environmentally sustainable and healthy way. To a point, one can even keep the welfare of the animal in mind. Feel free to disagree, but I believe that supporting the members of the livestock industry that most closely satisfy my concerns is a better strategy than condemning the industry as a whole. That is one of the reasons that I'm not vegan, or even vegetarian, but consume meat two or three times a week and animal products (dairy, eggs) nearly every day. Most of these products come from producers that I feel are moving in the right direction. More and more, since I have the will, time, and land, I'm producing these products myself (an eye-opening experience).
Spoken as a true Calgarian. Alberta ranchers produce some of the best beef in the world where great pride is taken in producing a quality product. And as Europe's slow food movement winds its way to North America, one can hope that quality will overtake quantity like it used to.
Well, at least it seems certain that Quantity will be overtaken, one way or another..
Obviously, Jim Kunstler has excellent sources.
Hello WT,
Good for you! Good for TOD! Jim Kunstler's mention can only help TOD get more eyeballs over time.
Here is a photo of detritovores desperately trying to quench their thirst, probably just moments before 'demand destruction'.
http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2006/12/19/21569.aspx
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Yeah... it's unfortunate Jim doesn't know squat about ethanol though.
Happy New Year Drummers!
That is one frightening photo!
Yep, if that was a stream of beer leaking out of a broken vat or pipeline from a nearby brewery--I would be among the first sucking up the dead yeast & suds. But considering just how explosive that much evaporating gasoline is-- I would trying to put some distance between me and the inevitable flame front. Recall what happened in Mexico when leaking volatile liquids exploded in the Guadalajara city sewers [7.1 on the Richter Scale!]:
http://www.semp.us/biots/biot_356.html
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Dante at PO.com (as usual) had some interesting points about the inventory reports.
He pointed out this article, originally appearing in the WSJ.
Oops.
Dante further notes:
Leanan,
You raise most interesting questions as to why we live in a "reign of error." These questions occurred to me first back in 1958, when I noticed some bloopers in a leading college psychology textbook, and since that date I've made a hobby of collecting silly mistakes in textbooks. There are a remarkable number of them, and I think the two main reasons are:
1. Sloppy reading or research, including lack of copy editing.
2. Prodigeous ignorance on the part of writers and editors.
One of my alltime favorite mistakes was in an early edition of the excellent Colander text on principles of economics. For one or two editions the date given for the invention of money was 7000 B.C. This is an obvious mistake, because 700 B.C. (Kings Midas and Croesus) is the correct date, but nobody knew or cared to correct the mistake until I wrote the publishers. I have noticed even more silly mistakes since the advent of spelling and punctuation checkers; IMO they have multiplied errors by about a factor of three. Copy editing is seldom done "in house" by book publishers anymore, and quality control in this field is about what you get in Chinese-made compact flourescent bulbs.
Not to get off topic (though I'll do it anyway, right now), but I was stunned at all the CFL trouble people have had on the other forum.
I've used the things in every light that I own (the cheap ones too...) for about 10 years now, and they've lasted something like 5-10 years on average. Never had any problems with them, except for one that I dropped. :-)
Just saying, it must be some electrical problem that the things don't like. Maybe using american (60 hz 120 volts) bulbs in european structures (120 hz, 220 volts, IIRC)?
Anyway, just saying....
I guess that errors placed in supply reports that bump up inventory quantity that are later quietly corrected is another mechanism to drive oil/gasoline prices lower; similar to the change to the Goldman Sac’s commodity index by reducing the index holding value of gasoline, forcing investors to dump gasoline futures at a perfectly political advantageous time.
Sudden supply increases make headlines.
Does anyone know what time period the error correction was for?
From the WSJ:
I have heard, a while back from at least a couple of independant sources one of which I am pretty sure was Financial Sense Online, that the weekly gasolene / distillates / crude stocks data is statistically derived rather than being actually measured. If I recall correctly actual measurement happens semi-annually, I think at fixed dates rather than a partial rolling basis.
I really ought to research the facts on this but my time is short ATM. If anyone here knows the truth of this I'd be most grateful if you would enlighten us.
Dante says the recalibration is done quarterly. The inventory report is taken a lot more seriously on those dates.
Does that correction put our crude stocks down into the ranges that previous years would lead us to expect, or are we still above the top boundary, in general? I thought the November crude numbers had us above by something like only 3-5 million barrels, right?
Just wondering if that rosy data was an errata?
Bob
Of course it does.
If it didn't, the doomers would be harping so loudly right now that this thread would contain nothing else of use :P
Wow. After reading the comments on the Peak Oil Despair article at the poster's site, I am dumbstruck by what we are facing in trying to educate people about Peak Oil. In a single read through I found abiotic oil idiocy, God will save us idiocy, Liberal freak conspiracy idiocy, The Market will save us idiocy and Tar Sands/Coal will save us idiocy.
I know I should get out more, but there's only so much surfing I can do at work. It simply had not occured to me that (assumed rational) people thought all this stuff anymore.
In case I haven't said this before: thanks to everyone at The Oil Drum for hosting a reasonable, equitable and rational debate on the subject of peak oil.