DrumBeat: April 14, 2007
Posted by Leanan on April 14, 2007 - 8:15am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Dale Allen Pfeiffer: Bleak Energy Outlook: Decline and Fall of Major Reserve Energy Sources
In this short paper, we will attempt an overview of our energy outlook, globally, and in particular with regard to North America. We will concentrate on major reserve energy sources — that is, energy sources of which the Earth has major stockpiles that are readily accessible. We will focus on these energy sources and ignore other various alternatives and renewable sources for the very simple reason that it is these resources which will dominate the energy market for the foreseeable future.
Altered Picture for Big Oil Reserves Three Years After Shell
As a crystal ball into the energy industry's prospects, proved crude-oil and natural-gas reserves aren't as clear as they used to be, at least not for the biggest oil companies.
U.K.: Petrol to hit £1-a-litre
PETROL prices are set to smash through the £1-a-litre barrier for the first time this summer, motorists were warned today.Soaring demand for fuel, a shortage of crude oil and continuing unease in the Middle East are combining to threaten record prices for millions of drivers on the forecourt.
Lula's Petrobras Comments Cause Concern
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has caused some concern among the private sector by saying federal energy company Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) must follow the government's development strategy.
Peak Soil: Why cellulosic ethanol, biofuels are unsustainable and a threat to America
There are many serious problems with biofuels, especially on a massive scale, and it appears from this report that they cannot be surmounted. So let the truth of Alice Friedemann’s meticulous and incisive diligence wash over you and rid you of any confusion or false hopes. The absurdity and destructiveness of large scale biofuels are a chance for people to eventually even reject the internal combustion engine and energy waste in general. One can also hazard from this report that bioplastics, as well, cannot make it in a big way.
Solving the corn supply problem
What's left behind from the ethanol-making process could be what saves the livestock industry from the high price of corn.
Biotech to Ease Ethanol-Related Corn Shortage
Biotechnology will play a key role in boosting corn production to meet the growing demand for ethanol fuel stock, two former presidents of the National Corn Growers Association told Hawaii state legislators and various farmers' groups during a week-long tour of the state in mid-March.
Organics: A poor harvest for Wal-Mart
Consider the case of Organic Valley Family of Farms in La Farge, Wis., one of the country's largest cooperatives of organic farmers. When demand for organic milk soared two years ago, rival Horizon Organic Dairy offered to sell to Wal-Mart for 15% below Organic Valley's price. Wal-Mart expected a similar reduction from Organic Valley, but instead the cooperative pulled out. "Looking for ever-lower costs comes at a real cost to sustainability," says George Siemon, Organic Valley's chief executive. "To have consistent supply, you have to change the paradigm of thinking and think about long-term partnerships."
Somalian PM Hopes to Tempt Oil Majors Back with Oil Law
Somalian Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi hopes big oil companies will return to the country and said parliament is set to vote on a petroleum law to encourage this by providing a legal framework.
An important piece of internationally significant news drops down through the crack
Uganda: Fuel Dealers Want Regulatory Body
FUEL dealers in Jinja have asked the Government to set up a national regulatory body to oversee fuel importation to avert future shortages.
Norway's Halvorsen: Oil Fund to Grow with Ethical Footprint
Norwegian Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen said she expects the value of Norway's offshore state pension fund to soar to around 5 trillion NKR within 10 years, during which time the fund's emphasis on ethical investments will be expanded.
Baltic Gas Pipeline Could Go Through Estonian Waters
The initial plan was to route the pipeline through the territorial waters and economic zone of Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany.However, Stroebaek said, Finland asked for the route to be shifted in order to protect the environment.
Fighting Terror with Hypercars
Lately I've been fascinated by the way so many former CIA and State Department officials, once freed from their jobs, have gone to work lobbying for energy security.
Stephen Colbert vs. No Impact Man
GAO Calls Interior's Estimate of Lost Royalties Too High
Federal royalties in jeopardy because of industry litigation are substantial but may be well below the $60 billion figure estimated by the Interior Department, according to a new Government Accountability Office report.
California drivers are pumping less gas
The price of gas really does matter after all.There were more cars than ever in California in 2006, but for the first time in 14 years, the state's motorists bought less gasoline than the year before.
Report: Army Corps needs major overhaul
The Army Corps of Engineers needs to acknowledge that the world is heating up and seas are rising to better protect the nation from flooding and hurricanes, according to a report by two environmental groups.
David Strahan and Duncan Clarke take opposing sides on the peak oil debate in The Last Oil Shock and The Battle for Barrels. Larry Elliott weighs up the evidence.
Formation of CTL Coalition Marks Start of America's Energy Independence for National Security
Congressman Nick J. Rahall, D-WV, and other Members of Congress in support of coal-to-liquid technology joined representatives from the U.S. Air Force, industry and labor on Capitol Hill recently to unveil the National Coal to Liquids (CTL) Coalition, formed to help increase America's national security by decreasing its dependence on foreign oil, while also spurring development of coal-derived transportation fuels.
Costs for food and energy are up, and consumers have taken notice.
Renewable energy boom drives up share prices
A boom in renewable energy shows no sign of petering out, with investors greedy for shares in wind-generator companies which are booking huge new sales.
EU's energy commissioner warns against Gazprom dominance in Europe's energy supply
Russian energy giant OAO Gazprom should not be allowed to dictate Europe's energy supply, a senior EU official said Friday, adding that the coming, EU-mandated switch to less-polluting renewables will entail additional costs for many.
G7 mulls better use of oil money, China reserves
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China, and Russia discussed with G7 nations how surpluses derived from oil sales should be invested and Beijing's plans to more actively manage its foreign reserves, a senior Japanese finance ministry official said late on Friday.
China: Trillion Dollar Investment Blues
As China's foreign exchange reserves continue their explosive growth, questions about the ways the country's financial mandarins manage its pool of wealth are growing both inside and outside China.
Namibia: Invader Bush Could Be Put to Good Use (Jatropha, not the U.S. president. We still haven't found a good use for him. ;-)
Promises and rhetoric not to solve Pakistan’s energy problems: report
By 2030, Pakistan’s energy demand will be almost 64 percent greater than projected supply.
Energy's secrets may lie in garden
Berkeley scientists have found that light-loving bacteria — and probably plants — rely on quantum physics to turn sunlight into usable energy rapidly and efficiently, overturning the standard explanation for how green living things get their energy.
ConocoPhillips sees global energy costs rising 10% annually
ConocoPhillips, the third-largest US oil company, said it sees global costs for energy developments continuing to spiral up, rising at an annual rate of 8% to 10% and squeezing profit margins.Labour scarcity and soaring prices for steel, concrete and other materials are inflating costs of building everything from refining units to offshore production platforms and show no signs of abating, ConocoPhillips chief executive officer Jim Mulva said on Thursday in an interview in Houston.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Crude Oil Sets Its Sights High
Only one thing has really changed, the way Brent crude and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have swapped places in terms of price, but this could be very important. For many years the WTI price was around three to four dollars more than that of Brent. Now that situation has been reversed in what could be one of the first signs of a peak in oil production exacerbating prices.
The Alchemist in the Oil Patch
Since the advent of the oil business, scientists and engineers have developed a series of very remarkable technologies. Oilfield technology tends to compound at a steady rate, extending the boundary of what was long considered the absolute limit of exploration and production. Oil and gas resources once thought completely out of reach have now arrived in the fuel tanks and furnaces of consumers around the world.
US Insulated from OPEC-Style Natural Gas Cartel - For Now
A natural gas cartel modeled on OPEC would have little near-term impact on the U.S. but its reverberations eventually could be felt as the country increases its reliance on imports.
A flare for tracking the Gulf's energy
Taking advantage of their energy riches, Gulf states have unleashed a raft of energy projects that suppliers and contractors are eyeing with relish.
Companies, not governments, control energy future
The American addiction to oil is fuelling the sizzling oilsands development in Fort McMurray, said a policy analyst from the United States slated to come here Monday."The only reason that the oilsands is being rapidly developed is because of the unabated demands from the United States," Tyson Slocum said.
Passenger rail lobby optimistic after Helena
The southern Montana rail line carried passengers until 1979, and Ackley's association has long advocated restoring service. Now that gas prices are high and the country faces an energy crisis, government officials are thinking that way, too.
Families given choice of 'heat or eat'
The Department of Human Services today announced that it is out of funds for energy crisis assistance for fiscal year 2007.
I think our human egos like to think that we caused global warming because it also helps us believe we can fix it.
Breaking the addiction to cheap oil
Weaning ourselves off oil in an orderly manner will take decades. Ironically, Hubbert had little faith in our capacity to manage this risk. He is quoted as having said, "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
Years of threats and bluster over the operations of U.S. and European oil companies in Venezuela turned more serious this month as President Hugo Chavez set a May 1 deadline (NYT) for nationalizing several major foreign petroleum projects. Chavez’s announcement prompted fear from oil executives, but many analysts say the move could be even more disastrous for Venezuela itself.
In U.S. Earth Day prelude, calls for greenhouse gas cuts
Earth Day seems to have morphed into Earth Week or possibly Earth Season, with more than 1,300 U.S. events that focus on sharp cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions that spur global warming.
Hippies Ruin The World Part 1,048,495: Sports Pollute Too Much, Man
Anyway, this dude's saying future caps on pollution emissions and peak oil will kill most sports as travel costs become prohibitive. Oh and do away with night games while we're at it.
Peak oil: Get ready for it, says GAO
Previously the worry of obscure engineers in technical reports, now the prospect of declining global production of oil is front and centre on the desks of all policy makers.
Climate change will require Canada to sell water to the U.S., says the author of American study



Re: “Breaking the addiction ...” article.
A Hubert quote from the article: He is quoted as having said, "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
The bottom line.
Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?
Another way of saying DENIAL through action.
I've begun to look at things so differently.
The issue isn't even "knowledge." It's CONTROL.
There are some things we just cannot control, know matter how smart we are.
Like population growth, the root of all our evils.
OK. then, what/how is control to be accomplished without knowledge ? I'd sure give control 2nd billing.
Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?
Actually, I see pop. growth as simply a Function of the availability of cheap energy. It blossomed with oil and electricity's spread, and will find a new level when the 'sugar' dries up. We won't all die off.. just a lot of us.
About the article on exporting vater from Canada to the US. Has any study been made on how much energy would be needed to transfer vater from a place like the great lakes to a place like Las Vegas.
I understand that the pumps draining the aquifiers usually run on natural gas.
If I were canadian, I think, I would start taking diving lessons and brush up on my knowledge on electronics and chemestry.
Not that I'm trying to imply anything.
In the 70s there was the
North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA)
Google this and get lots of hits.
Decades ago a plan was floated to create a slurry coal pipeline from Wyoming to Lake Michigan. The plan involved a parallel pipe carrying water to the coal fields. The energy needed to lift millions of gallons per day to ground a mile higher made the railroad a better choice. Most Canadian water is at elevations under 1000 ft while where it is needed is at elevations of at least 3000 ft.
A better solution would be to install air cooling systems at powerplants since generating electricity uses nearly half the water Americans uses. Concurrently we could install drip irrigation systems for those farms in dry areas.
We will have to give you our water will we! We will fight!
Sorry, Canada, but you've already surrendered: you signed the part of the NAFTA treaty that says the US has the right to continue to plunder your natural resources. Mexico refused to sign that part. Not that I expect it'll do them much good in the long run...
Water was excluded. But if the SPP is passed, that may change.
This is quite old, so people might have read this. I was
reading this last night and I could help but feel a wee but optmistic about this technology. Has this been explored in depth previously on TOD?
If so does nayone have the link?
TIA,
http://oakhavenpc.org/cultivating_algae.htm
Yes, it (biodiesel from algae) has been discussed before on TOD, and I think it's a technology that is worth exploring. It's interesting that the Bush administration has cut the funding of NREL, which has been developing this idea, and instead is pushing the doomed "solution" of ethanol from corn.
Here is an article that Robert Rapier wrote on the issue:
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2006/03/biodiesel-king-of-alternative-fu...
At least get the blame right. The funding for NREL research for algae to biodiesel was cut off in the 1990's on Clinton's watch. I'm no big fan of Bush, but reading some of the comments you would think he sunk the Titanic, caused the depression, and killed Elvis.
Don't forget Clinton had to deal with a GOP Congress for six years. The idea of $40 in the next 10 years oil was unthinkable in the 90s. Renewables are not cheap and by any measure will never cost $15/boe.
I'm not a big Clinton fan either, but Bush did hack away at NREL's budget, and at a very critical time:
Layoffs in store at NREL
Up to 100 scientists may go as Congress slashes budget
By Gargi Chakrabarty, Rocky Mountain News
December 20, 2005
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/energy/article/0,2777,DRMN_23914_4...
Looks like the Democrats restored their budget. I'm not familiar with the details but I had heard recently that they had gotten some money.
http://www.blog.thesietch.org/2007/03/18/national-renewable-energy-lab-1...
Although stung by the arrow from ImSeptic the mighty troll slayer I have one more thing to say.
Industrial designers are constantly struggle with understanding the psychology of the consumer when preparing new technology for market. Contrary to belief generalQ public are not hungrily awaiting the next breakthrough. Unless of course its simply smaller, faster,more gigs, etc.
People are frustratingly resistant to a fundamentally new concept even if it represents a truth or a true solution. We are constantly having to “bring the customer along” not the reverse.
This I the dichotomy that Detroit got stuck in, although I personally believe that there is more to that story than is commonly understood but I won’t go into that here even though it does relate to PO.
The position you all are in right now is a familiar one to anyone in my industry. You have a bunch of engineers who have total understanding of the technical problem and a very good grasp of the solutions and they just can’t understand why the world isn’t beating a path to their door.
I have seen some of the best inventions fall by the wayside not because the market speaks, but because the principals fail, or refuse to understand this concept. They simply believe its a matter of marketing but it is more than that, tis a process.
Then say is in the Drumbeat of yesterday where is doesn't belong any more than here.
I am discussing PEAK OIL. You all are constantly questioning why people are not more aware. You make statements like "how can we get the message out there" yet it seems some of you are more invested in the problem than solutions.
No you're not, your post yesterday mentioned the following.
You sir, are a crank, a loon and a troll. And I hope your account gets deleted soon.
Agreement of the highest accord with this posting, policy should be swift swings of the bannination bat to those who bring up 'perpetual motion'/'over unity' or other such devices.
All Souperman2 said was:
I don't see a problem with that (as long as it doesn't generate more ENERGY than it consumes).
--------------------------------------------------------
The future of oil? "Soylent Black is peeeeoppplllle!!!!"
A "solution" is something which has succeeded in solving the problem. After the problem is solved it is possible to determine what the solution was. But it's hindsight. The energy problem has certainly not been "solved", so declaring anything as the solution to the energy problem is certainly a bit premature.
There is a lot of discussion at TOD of POSSIBLE solutions. But the prevailing viewpoint around here is that even with full implementation of all possible alternatives to fossil fuel, we won't have enough energy available to continue our present lifestyles, particularly personal transportation. And the impact on economic growth will require certain adjustments.
Most of us really don't want bad things to happen. We're trying to warn people that they are gonna happen anyway...
yes I have mentioned the Steorn device as a possible FACTOR in the future. Perhaps I was not being clear but I have no connection with them and I ask for no money or anything else from anyone. Others have mentioned the device before me I simply posted latest development and shared my experience with this field which I have been involved with for some time.
My comments today refer to TOD and PO and if you reread with an open mind and take your finger off the trigger you might find some insight there.
If you do not wish anyone to comment why do you have a button? Is there some kind of qualification I must pass first? You will not reach very many if remain closed to relivant input and you allow commnetors to be trashed.
I'm afraid anyone who comes here pushing a perpetual motion machine is going to get some rough treatment.
You are of course free to talk about such things, but don't be surprised if your comments are considered ill-informed, trolling, or pump-and-dumping.
Move 180 degrees.
Take the second law of thermodynamics and note that it says energy consumption produces waste. That is clear, right?
Take Daly/Townsend's corollary of the law which states: No organism can survive in a medium of its own waste.
Any contraption or procedure that provides more energy than it uses is in essence an unlimited energy supply (just repeat the process).
Now realize that this unlimited energy supply will produce unlimited waste. Then wonder whether you think that is such a great idea.
You don't even have to understand the second law, and some evidently don't, to know what constraints there are. Even to know that it is these constraints that make life possible. Nothing could live in a medium of unlimited energy, even if such a thing were possible. Which it's not. Which is why you are alive.
Sort of like when back when someone theorized the world might be round?
OK I understand I will cease and desist with the voodoo talk but please don't kick me out. I feel safe in here. It’s too schizophrenic out there. People walking around like nothings happening while EVERYTHING is happening.
I do believe I have much to offer but I will lay low.
good little troll
As I have noted before, TOD is a meat grinder. Much more widely supported (including US Gov't for billions) corn ethanol has taken some savage attacks as one example.
You apparently lack the scientific background to understand the fallacy / fraud that is being pushed with this "energy creation" device.
IMVHO, if you are coming here out of good will and to learn (and contribute on issues where you have relevant knowledge) you are still welcome, despite getting off on a bad foot.
Best Hopes,
Alan
The idea that the world being round was ever controversial is an invention of Hollywood movies. The ancient greeks knew this, Eratosthenes tried to measure the size of the world based on this knowledge, and to medieval clerics the word of ancient greeks such as Aristoteles was as the gospel itself.
The guy you're thinking off is Gallileo, and the controversy was about the earth orbiting the sun and not vice versa.
I find it amusing how you demonstrate your ignorance with each new post, maybe you shouldn't have your account deleted after all.
Wasn't the Galilean controversy about the moons of Jupiter orbiting Jupiter, not heliocentricity?
No.
"Belief in a flat Earth is found in mankind's oldest writings. In early Mesopotamian thought, the world was portrayed as a flat disk floating in the ocean, and this forms the premise for early Greek maps like those of Anaximander and Hecataeus. Many theologians and biblical researchers maintain that writers of the Bible had a Babylonian world view according to which Earth is flat and stands on some sort of pillars. According to Dictionary of the Bible written by W. Browning "Hebrew cosmology pictured a flat earth, over which was a dome-shaped firmament, supported above the earth by mountains, and surrounded by waters. Holes or sluices (windows, Gen 7.11) allowed the water to fall as rain. The firmament was the heaven in which God set the sun (Ps 19.4) and the stars (Gen 1.14)"[4] Other theologians counter that the book of Isaiah alludes to the earth being circular or spherical (Isa 40.22). By classical times an alternative idea, that Earth was spherical, had appeared. This was espoused by Pythagoras, apparently on aesthetic grounds, as he also held all the celestial bodies were spherical..."
"Severian, Bishop of Gabala (d. 408), wrote: "The earth is flat and the sun does not pass under it in the night, but travels through the northern parts as if hidden by a wall"."
"The modern misconception that people of the Middle Ages believed that the Earth was flat first entered the popular imagination in the nineteenth century, thanks largely to the publication of Washington Irving's fantasy The Life and Voyages of Christopher Columbus in 1828."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_Earth
I don't know how you conclude that the person in mind was Galileo. Is mind reading a skill of yours, alongside your ability to find amusement in ignorance?
It is true that long before Columbus sailed the notion of a spherical earth prevailed, but to say that this notion was never controversial is even more wrong than your impression that Hollywood invented the popular misrepresentation of the medieval viewpoint.
People living in glass houses, and all that...
souperman2 , whats your take on Dr Bussards IEC fusion reactor? If you haven't been following the story heres a few links at this KOS diary....
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/28/15328/187
IMHO this bone has a bit of meat to it.
From the article you liked to.
As it has now been established that 'DR' Bussard is a crank, and that KOS is run by someone ignorant. Lets move on to fusion.
Fusion is merging two atoms together.
Problem: Atoms are surrounded by electrons who repel each other.
Solution: Heat will seperate the electrons from the atoms.
Problem: The heat will destroy the walls of the fusion chamber.
Solution: Contain the atoms in a magnetic field.
Problem: It is not possible to obtain a sustained process with current technology and equipment.
Solution: Wait another 30 years.
Hurin,
You are only offering solutions based on current information.
Solutions that are "fixed" in a subject that is not totally understood.
Heat is possible solution not proven its the only one
Same for the solution using a magnetic field. This is based on the previous solution above.
I am not familiar with the person discussed. Though how does one know that something he does will "click", or someone else in thirty years has a "click".
Science being fixed and the assumption we know it all, that too is a bit of a wacko POV for many.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
I agree with Hurin, oops did I say that?
My son at OSU is excited about Bussard.
I believe if we ever evolve into a new energy system it will come from the other 97% of the universe, dark matter/ dark energy.
Drives my son nuts.
Sorry, back under the bridge for me.
I will say this, souperman2...
You are a mighty good-natured troll!
Welcome to TOD :-)