DrumBeat: April 17, 2007
Posted by Leanan on April 17, 2007 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
U.S. pursues ethanol technology as key to reducing oil dependence
The sun shone brightly on the crowd gathered at the rusting old oil refinery here, as company officials showed off diagrams explaining how they planned to turn weeds and agricultural wastes into car fuel. Government officials gave optimistic speeches.In the background, workers were preparing a new network of pipes, tanks and conveyor belts.
That was in October 1998, when ethanol from crop wastes seemed to be just around the corner.
It still is. This past February, company officials gathered here once again, to break ground on a plant designed to make ethanol by yet another method.
Chic-onomics: 'value is the new growth!'
We need a new theory. Unlimited growth isn't working. Almost three centuries ago Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations gave birth to economic science: "More is better" was the mantra, "more" made you happier. But today, "more is too much." And soon there may be no more.
Opec softens tone on oil supply
Opec, the oil cartel, on Monday softened its policy to withold oil from the market, saying it would supply more if necessary.
China's economy reaching environmental limits
According to high-ranking officials in Beijing, there is simply not enough fuel around on the planet to sustain a Chinese boom using the same energy-intensive recipe that made the western nations rich.
Chinese Oil Giants Move to Biofuels
China National Offshore Oil Corporation announced recently that a biodiesel plant with an annual output of 60,000 tons will be built within the year in Dongfang City, Hainan Province. Plans also include planting 100,000 mu (about 25.7 square miles) of jatropha curcas (a tree whose seeds and nuts can be processed to produce biofuel) in Hainan to provide raw material for the biodiesel plant in the future.
China to miss target for using natural gas
China will miss a target for increased natural gas use because importers failed to secure enough supplies and energy demand gained more than expected.
Russia resumes its power in Europe with natural gas
Russian President Vladimir Putin must be feeling smug. His strategy of using his country's vast natural resources to restore the greatness lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union seems to be paying off. If power is measured by the fear instilled in others -- as many Russians believe -- he is certainly winning.
Jeb Bush: Ethanol market to double in five years
The world's production and consumption of ethanol are expected to at least double in the next five years, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said Monday.
Proposed pipeline across Malaysia could cut costs
A proposed oil pipeline project to pump oil across northern Malaysia - bypassing the busy Malacca Strait - could lower transportation costs and avoid risks of pirate attacks on tankers, Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak said Tuesday.
A car worth a million dollars in India
Riding on high domestic and international demand, this year has been one of the best for the Indian automobile industry. An Indian government mission plan said auto manufacturers are aiming for sales of $145 billion in 10 years or an average 16% annual growth, up from about $40 billion now.
GM will get plug-in vehicle into production: executive
General Motors Corp. Engineering Chief Jim Queen said Monday that the company is planning to make its Chevrolet Volt plug-in electric concept car in the future, despite some speculation suggesting the Volt project is little more than an expensive science project.
Palm oil industry wary of uncertain futures
Malaysian palm oil futures hit an eight year high last week, as rampant demand by food and biofuels continues to deplete global stocks.
India: Food, fuel, water and alternate energy sources
It is only an academic exercise to debate which of the three securities is most important for India: food, energy and water. All of them are equally important. Relatively new and expanding sector of alternate energy sources is forcing us to look at these sectors in an integrated and holistic manner.
Plant my roof, stretch my green
The number of buildings with green roofs - rooftops covered in hearty plants like sedum and prairie grass - grew 25 percent last year, according to the industry association Green Roofs for Healthy Cities.
Saudi Aramco Says Refining Shortage to Persist on Rising Costs
Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, said a shortage of refining capacity to process so-called heavy-sour crudes will persist because of rising construction costs.Rising prices of steel and other construction materials have prompted companies and governments to delay or cancel projects, said Ibrahim Mishari, Saudi Aramco's vice president of marketing and supply planning.
Costs to build new refining units have risen at least 70 percent in the past three years, London-based Merrill analysts Hootan Yazhari, Alastair Syme, Mark Iannotti and Philippe Ziegler said in an April 13 report. Heavy-sour oil contains more sulfur than sweet crudes and requires more processing than light grades to extract the same amount of gasoline.
"Many of these refineries may not materialize," Aramco's Mishari said at the Middle East Petroleum and Gas conference in Dubai. "The downstream bottleneck could remain."
Special warns that as dwindling oil feels squeeze, so will we
"A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash" could be the most important program you'll ever see if the experts on the program are right. What's at stake is simply our entire way of living, they say.The problem is most people won't see the show or won't want to even if they can. It's on from 9:30 to 11 tonight on Sundance. That's a digital channel on Insight 614, which a lot of subscribers have never heard of and most don't get.
Simmons to speak in New Hampshire:
Matthew Simmons, a banking and investment advisor to the oil industry for more than 35 years, will speak at the University of New Hampshire at 7 p.m. in the ballroom of Huddleston Hall on Main Street. His talk is free and open to the public.
Australia on Track to be a Top Three LNG Exporter in 10 Years
Australia is on track to be one of the world's top three Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exporters within 10 years, as Australia's export capacity grows to meet strong world demand, Australian Resources Minister, Ian Macfarlane, said.
U.S. weekly oil and gas rig count up 32
The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States rose by 32 this week to 1,758.
BP is interested in working on a range of oil and gas projects in Iraq, but is waiting for the country's parliament to pass an oil law and for security to improve before increasing its role, a senior BP executive said on Monday.
With close to 150m vehicles on its roads and new car sales alone adding 5-6m a year, China is a test case for global carmakers pushing their clean, fuel-efficient models and technologies.
House Natural Resources Panel to Examine Aftermath of 2005 Energy Bill
Two years ago, the GOP-controlled Congress passed an energy bill that reshaped the rules for oil and gas exploration on federal lands. Now, the Democratic House wants to take a second look.
Wanna Bet the Farm on Carbon Capture and Sequestration?
If you want to go on living on the planet Earth, then you’d better learn how to love sequestration. Because if sequestration doesn’t work, the planet is toast. Literally.
White House Behind the Biggest Bull Market of the Next 25 Years
If ethanol were a crime, Washington would definitely be charged with aiding and abetting. Because let’s face it: there’s absolutely no doubt that those folks on the Hill are responsible for the ethanol movement.And when you take into account all the agricultural subsidies and renewable fuel standards, the very thought of ethanol being written off as a temporary fad is ludicrous.
Blowing Green Smoke - Kunstler responds to Friedman:
Friedman's invocation of Wal-Mart here offers another layer of misunderstanding from the work he is best-known for, his best-selling book, The World is Flat, which asserts that globalism is now a permanent feature of the human condition. I demur from this view. I think we will discover (probably painfully) that globalism was a set of transient economic relations made possible by a half century of cheap oil and relative peace between the great powers, and that enterprises that rely on these transient mechanisms — such Wal-Mart, with its 12,000-mile merchandise supply chain to China, and its "warehouse on wheels" of tractor-trailor trucks circulating incessantly on America's interstate highways — will be on their knees in a few years as we enter the export crisis phase of post-peak terminal oil depletion and the great powers of the world act with increasing desperation to compete over the remaining supplies.
U.K.: Inflation rate at ten-year high
Mr King said that the rise in inflation was partly due to an "unexpectedly sharp" increase in the domestic energy crisis last year as well as rising food prices.
Azerbaijan's share of the world's hydrocarbons
Petroleum Intelligence Weekly has published its annual ranking of the world's 50 largest oil companies, this ranking is the leading source of comparative performance assessments on all the world's oil companies. While Saudi Aramco and Exxon Mobil remain entrenched at the top, mergers, acquisitions and state consolidation continue to make their mark.The report states that 20 countries of the world own 94 percent of the hydrocarbon supply, totalling 1.4 trillion barrels. Out of that amount Azeri hydrocarbon supply totals 14 billion barrels (more than 1.9 billion tons).
Asia's largest oil refiner Sinopec said its profit will surge over 50 percent in the first half of this year.
Greenpeace India seeks ban on incandescent bulb
Greenpeace today launched a national campaign calling for a phase out of inefficient light bulbs in India by 2010. Four Greenpeace activists suspended themselves from the top of the 269 meters high Vikas Minar building at the Center of New Delhi this morning and unfurled a 85 by 45 feet large banner with the message “Stop Climate Change, Ban the Bulb” and the campaign logo.
Public funding is missing piece in state green-energy initiatives
Brazil is now largely energy independent because of its aggressive efforts to develop homegrown biomass ethanol to replace gasoline in response to the 1970s energy crisis. Recently, the European Union announced plans to reduce by 2020 its greenhouse emissions to 20 percent below its 1990 levels, while producing 20 percent of its energy through renewable sources. In contrast, an internal draft report of the Bush administration estimates that by 2020, the U.S. will emit 9.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide, an increase of 20 percent over its 2000 level.
Disappointment does not begin to describe my feelings after having read of the passage of a bill in the N.H. House that would promote the construction of wood-fired electric power plants across the state.
India: Why get scared of over-capacity?
What happens if, let’s say, all these plants come up in the miraculous time frame of four years? Well nothing much, because demand will have far outstripped capacity by several thousand megawatts. And what is being done to prepare for that eventuality? As I can see, next to nothing.
Ghana: Anglogold Ashanti to invest $700m in mining
He noted that gold price and cost of mining input rose simultaneously, putting pressure on profit margins of industry as a whole but Anglogold Ashanti had long focused on managing down fixed cost base through rigorous savings programme....He said the energy crisis was adding additional cost to production and to remain in operation the company was investing 40 million dollars to generate power.
Oil chiefs slammed over dwindling supplies
THE Australian Democrats have criticised oil industry executives meeting in Adelaide for failing to discuss the issue of the world's dwindling oil supplies.The party's Senate candidate in South Australia, Ruth Russell, said some former industry executives and independent commentators believed peak oil could be reached by 2010.
..."It is outrageous that the annual Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association conference, being held in Adelaide right now, does not even list the problem of peak oil on its agenda." she said.
Iran, Iraq, Kuwait 'raise May crude oil prices'
Iran and Iraq have raised the May crude oil prices for its three main export products to all markets, while Kuwait upped its export formula for Far East clients, the Middle East Economic Survey reported Monday. The Cyprus-based weekly publication said that for Asian customers, Iranian Light remained unchanged in relation to the average price of Oman and Dubai crudes for May, while Iranian Heavy and Foroozan were raised by 15 cents a barrel.For May deliveries to north western Europe and South Africa, all three crudes were raised by 1.35 to 1.80 dollars a barrel in relation to the benchmark Brent Weighted Average (BWAVE).
Floating nuclear power stations raise spectre of Chernobyl at sea
Environmental groups and nuclear experts fear that floating plants will be more vulnerable to accidents and terrorism than land-based stations. They point to a history of naval and nuclear accidents in Russia and the former Soviet Union, most notoriously at Chernobyl in 1986.
Global warming may put U.S. in hot water
As the world warms, water — either too little or too much of it — is going to be the major problem for the United States, scientists and military experts said Monday. It will be a domestic problem, with states clashing over controls of rivers, and a national security problem as water shortages and floods worsen conflicts and terrorism elsewhere in the world, they said.At home, especially in the Southwest, regions will need to find new sources of drinking water, the Great Lakes will shrink, fish and other species will be left high and dry, and coastal areas will on occasion be inundated because of sea-level rises and souped-up storms, U.S. scientists said.
Brazil defends ethanol deal at summit
Brazil is defending its ethanol agreement with the United States, despite efforts by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to undermine the deal using his country's vast reserves of oil and natural gas.
EPA chief: Bush climate policy working
The head of the Environmental Protection Agency said Monday the growth of greenhouse gases by less than 1 percent in 2005 shows the administration's program to address global warming "is delivering real results." The pronouncement by EPA Administrator Dave Johnson brought a quick response from some environmentalists.
U.S. pump price highest since August
Soaring U.S. retail gasoline prices show no signs of easing, jumping another 7.4 cents over the last week to an average $2.88 a gallon, the government said on Monday.
GM expects rise in China minivan JV's sales
General Motors Corp.'s commercial vehicle venture in China expects to increase sales by more than one-fifth this year and aims to maintain its number-one position in the Chinese market's minivan segment, a senior executive said on Tuesday.
Security Council to hold unprecedented debate on climate change
For the first time in its history, the UN Security Council on Tuesday debates climate change, a sign that the burning issue is increasingly being seen as a major threat to world security.
Climate change takes centre stage in Singapore
More than 600 business executives and experts will gather in Singapore this week for a UN-backed meeting to discuss how the corporate world can help tackle the growing threat of climate change.
Ex-U.S. military chiefs warn warming worsens security
Global climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in some of the world's most volatile areas, and raises tensions even in stable regions, 11 former U.S. military leaders warned on Monday.To combat this, they urged immediate planning and international cooperation without waiting for total certainty on the consequences of global warming.
"We can't wait until we have absolute certainty," retired Gen. Gordon Sullivan, a former U.S. Army chief of staff, said at a briefing where the report was released. "We know that we never have 100 percent certainty and ... if we wait, we might wait too long."
The top 12 greenest vehicles of 2007 - Surprisingly, only half of the models making the cut are hybrid vehicles
Half of the cars are just old-fashioned, gas-powered vehicles that happen to be small and efficient, with low emissions.
Top Ten US City Use of Renewable Energy
Which of the largest 50 US cities provides citizens with the highest percentage of power produced from renewable energy? SustainLane has the answer:1. Oakland, CA (17%)
2. Sacramento/SF/San Jose, CA (12%)*
3. Portland, OR (10%)
4. Boston (8.6%)
5. San Diego, CA (8%)
6. Austin, TX (6%)
7. Los Angeles, CA (5%)
8. Minneapolis, MN (4.5%)
9. Seattle, WA (3.5%)
10. Chicago, IL (2.5%)*tied
It is finally starting to strike me how alike peak oil and the American housing bubble are, apart from such obvious connections like suburbia requiring oil to function, or how rising home values allowed suburban home owners to cope in the short term with rising fuel prices by going deeper into debt.
What is becoming striking is how many people who bought property feel that the price they set is the real price, even though no one is willing to pay it.
Both peak oil and the end of the housing bubble are based on reality, while most people seem to feel that their belief in how the world should be trumps how the world is. 'The buyer needs to meet my price or else I won't sell' is roughly the same as 'Driving is critical to how I live, so the price of gas needs to come down, otherwise there is no way to keep living like this.'
But the truth is, a house is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it, and going down the peak, there will be less oil in the pipeline. Your 'needs' are not part of either situation, except for the fact that after having made your bed, you get to sleep in it. Sweet dreams.
This is not a broad discussion about how deeply some people believe in being entitled to live in a dream world, or about various failures in various mechanisms (are Americans really so incapable of performing elementary math any longer, for example?).
What also leaps out is how locked in Americans are to their current framework - they do not have the infrastructure to not drive, and they do not have the financial means to simply change how they live without sacrificing such critical elements of daily life as cable TV. As fuel grows either more expensive or scarcer (at least one of those two is a fairly predictable occurrence), or as mortgage becomes higher than the value of the house on the market, people are trapped by their decisions into desperately supporting a system which is destined to end. No wonder people in the U.S. don't want to look at the future.
And this may also be where I part ways with the Tainter idea of complexity - it is not really the complexity which brings the end, it is the fact that the people within a system desperately try to keep it going, as changing it represents something unacceptable.
I don't think your ideas are really that different from Tainter's. Tainter just carries them farther.
Why don't people simplify when the returns on complexity start to fall? Well, sometimes they do. And it works, though as you note, it means sacrifice. (The Byzantine Empire gave up literacy for much of their population, for example.)
But why don't all societies do that, if it works so well? Sometimes, they can't. Often, the reason is competition with other complex societies. The Mayan population grew to the point that they could not feed everyone without their high-tech raised beds and irrigation systems. "Stop breeding" seems like the obvious solution. But it's not so obvious when the neighbors are breeding like bunnies, and you need to keep up with them or be overrun.
I also think what expat is describing is almost the exact definition of Kunstler's psychology of previous investment...
We've embraced our current system by investing so much time, energy, and money. Now even as the realization hits some that this is not going to end well, there's no serious effort to try a different way because we're in so deep... We've simply invested too much into this one "solution" that we just have to make it work (against all logical arguments of why it won't).
"American Way of Life is non-negotiable"...ring a bell??
I don't think I agree with that. Tainter argues that people essentially make rational choices. For many societies, collapse is a choice they make.
We may be "invested" in the system we have, but I would argue that it's an investment of time, energy, and resources, not pyschologically invested. We may be psychologically invested, too, but it's the time and resources that count. We can change our minds. We can't easily change our infrastructure.
Leanan wrote:
Jared Diamond's Collapse pointed out that the choices look like rational ones, but sometimes they are and sometimes not. The choice to "downsize" is rare. There may be a choice to "streamline" though this may produce an unwanted collapse. In the US's case, the choices look rational only according to one model of the real situation (the same model which produces "growth" and "free trade"), but terribly irrational according to many others (e.g., what I would call "prudent equilibrium"). Sometimes people think they are making a choice but actually act in the way their constraints appear to force them to. I see the US in this situation as well, and it is the reason I tend more towards pessimism in these questions. One can consider the discussions following publication 30 years ago of the Club of Rome's report and The Population Bomb. The upshot of that has been clear ever since Malthus (up to a simple renormalisation) yet look at the discussion of it.
ciao,
Bruce
I'm not arguing that the reasoning is rational. Just the results. Call me a societal darwinist.
I think it's pretty clear that the reason more societies do not choose to simplify is because they are in competition with other societies, and simplifying is tantamount to disarming. It's not a coincidence that all of Diamond's sustainable societies were on islands - isolated from the rest of the world.
No matter how this is rationalized, none of this is either reasonable or at all rational.
Vis-a-vis the imperatives of evolution, ecology, and ethics that we are capable of applying decent consideration to, and in this day and age, all this alleged rationalizing (particularly as to our only choice is to compete or disarm), is insane.
It's quite a conundrum.
But you see, in my eyes, America has 'simplified' - it lacks the skilled industrial and agricultural work force it possessed in previous generations, these having been replaced with people who feel that financial engineering has a higher value than actual labor with a tangible result, for example (let's not even get into the 'growth' of the legal profession as another example of productive capacity being displaced).
The thing is, that this simplification from useful skills in a tangible world to what seems in my eyes to abstract constructions increasingly divorced from reality (mortgage brokers servicing customers who can't read the documents they are signing - a sign of increasing complexity, or a step on the long staircase of decline?) is the problem.
I realize this goes somewhat against the grain, but I feel that the U.S. is, metaphorically, well on its way to becoming a monoculture - and that this path was not merely randomly chosen, but was instead the answer to the challenges which the 1970s exposed. Forced and unwise simplification (American housing truly seems to be stapled and glued at this point - this is not a sign of skill or quality) is disguised as a dynamic economic miracle, for example.
I believe the bubble popping will expose more reality than most Americans can actually handle, the same way peak oil will.
And people have a vested interest (as we see here, daily) in their beliefs, long past the point that they are proven wrong in the eyes of others.
America, currently home of the largest trade deficit and the largest financial bubble in human history, feels itself to be number 1 in so many areas. The two I noted are beyond dispute, however, and yet, they are not claimed with pride by Americans. Selling the sizzle of financial engineering, not the reality of a declining manufacturing base - America can probably claim no. 1 status in marketing itself, too.
Today there was a radio broadcast in Swedish state radio about the Iraq oilsituation. In a part of that broadcast the reporter intervjued professor Kjell Aleklett from Uppsala university and president of ASPO. He did not mention the words Peak Oil, but told, that we have a very worrisome future for the oilproduction going forward. He said, that the oilcompanys estimate a yearly declinerate of 4-6% from existing fields, and that no moore big fields is to be found, and that it is very difficult to cope with the decline with the small fields that are coming on stream/found.
Then he talked about the accelerating demand from China, and that China has a lot of money with which they certainly will buy up oil.
All in all though he did not specifically mention PO, he gave a picture of that.
The weird thing about the broadcast, that i noted, was that the reporter did not react at all to that. It was as he was talking about the weather. This gives a picture of people who listen but do not understand.
Kenneth
I have been talking to my wife for over a year now about PO. It hasn't been fun as I have gone through realization, denile, depression, and finally accepting(somewhat, for I live/work with people who have no idea and do not want to even think about it).
It has been interesting. She has been adamant to not be depressed and live life to its fullest and there is always something that people have had to endure at any point in history. She is correct of course. Most interesting is that lately she comes home and tells me of some story related to sprawl/PO. I see the gradual awakening in her awareness of just how gigantic the problem is. She is still positive which I like and envy, but realizes we have really big problems heading squarely at us.
I find most people absolutely turn you off on oil problems. They either cannot wrap thier minds around this or we have been conditioned by the way things have gone for so long. I think we have been conditioned, by advertizing, realative peace in the world, having too many choices available be it cars, food, TV programing, etc. and having so much food we are fat. This has gone on for so long that it is considered the norm just like cars and oil use. Looking at this point in history with 1,000 years time frame with PO so far gives the discussion on Po with other people.
Best D
I have been reading and occasionally posting on The Oil Drum for about a year and a half I guess, and this is virtually the only place I talk about Peak Oil. When I brought the subject up to a couple of friends, they, while admitting that oil is a finite resource and that economic growth cannot continue forever, generally blew the whole thing off, with statements on the order of “They’ll come up with something to keep things going”; essentially the “technology will save us” line. So I let the matter be, contenting myself with reading and sometimes posting on TOD and Kunstler’s site.
However, I am in a position where I have access to some of our local powers that be, and it seems a shame to waste this opportunity to at least educate them about Peak Oil, if not change any policies. I live in San Francisco and sit on several advisory boards, all of which deal with issues which will be directly affected by energy prices and shortages. I sit on the Redevelopment Project Area Committee of the South of Market, which discusses Redevelopment activities in this area, and I am also on the Western South of Market Citizens Community Task-Force, which discusses development and transportation issues in the larger South of Market area. Also, I am the Chair of the Tom Waddell Advisory Board of the Tom Waddell Health Centre (homeless and low-income serving medical clinic.) On one occasion I mentioned the Peak Oil concept to the latter, and virtually no one else on the Advisory Board had ever even heard the term “Peak Oil.” Out of my involvement on the Tom Waddell board I got elected to the Community Advisory Board to the National Health Care for the Homeless Council, and on the occasions of our twice-annual conferences I have the opportunity to meet with people in the Federal Department of Health and Human Services.
So my question is, how do I push the Peak Oil question to these people without sounding like a lunatic wearing a tin-foil covered hat? If you recall from my posts, I am of the opinion that Peak Oil was either in May of ‘05, or will happen within the next two or three years. (In other words, its NOW) I am in agreement with the poster who said that after a year or so of dramatically higher prices that all the CERA-style sweet-talk will not be able to keep the subject out of the public’s awareness. And I feel that once this happens, the investor community will absolutely panic, and the financial markets will utterly crash, ushering in a new Great Depression, which, unlike the one in the Thirties, will be unending.
So I sit around the table and listen to developers touting their projects and asking for our input. Part of me wants to tell them that if I were in their shoes I would forget about real estate development and building kazillion dollar skyscrapers and condos and run like hell as in five years we are likely to be at the beginning of an endless worldwide depression which will make the one in the Thirties look like a joke. Of course I don’t because I would immediately be considered the tin-foil hatted lunatic. Absolutely NOBODY seems to be capable of imagining any other paradigm that our 200+ year-old business as usual, i.e.: eternal economic growth.
But I hate to waste the opportunity to make those decision-makers I meet with regularly at least aware of the situation, if not the ultimate folly of most of their plans. I’m hoping that if they are aware of the situation that they just might, at some point be able to come to this conclusion on their own. So I’m posting this to ask for advice as how to proceed. If anyone wants to look further into my activities, just Google “Antoinetta III”; you should come up with about three or four pages of hits. And if anyone wants to E-Mail me privately, I am at antoinetta@mindspring.com.
Thanks in advance for any advice anyone may have to offer.
Antoinetta III
Antionetta: IMHO, you are going to lose a lot of listeners when you jump from the reality of global oil depletion to the possibility of an oil depletion caused worldwide finanical crash and depression that will make the 30s look like fun. Global growth is currently extremely strong with slightly declining oil consumption. If you tell your listeners that oil consumption equals wealth creation they are going to ask you to prove it (good luck).
Antionetta,
I have come to the conclusion that the term "Peak Oil" does not go over well with the general populace. I find I have much better luck discussing things if I talk in terms of supply shortfalls. I find discussions of demand growth vs. production growth to work well. Talk about consistent 2% growth in the US, plus surging demand in China and India.
If they are still open and receptive after that, you can talk about the lack of reserve growth, and how lots of companies are actually producing more reserves then they can produce every year.
If your audience hasn't glazed over yet, you can next mention the lack of new Giant oil fields being found. In the past we got a large percentage of our oil from these huge fields. Now we're having to try and procure the oil from smaller and smaller fields.
Lastly, if you still have any body left listening, you can talk about how the new oil that we find and produce is in increasingly difficult areas to produce. New oil fields are still being found, but they are in harsher environments, deeper locations beneath the ground, as well as ever increasing ocean depths for off shore wells.
Stress that it's not so much that there isn't more oil (there is) it's just getting harder and more expensive to produce smaller and smaller amounts.
Good luck,
Garth
Some suggestions:
1. First, realize you're never going to open a conversation about Peak Oil and proceed to lay out some arguments and convince someone right there. The best you can manage is to plant the seed and that they will follow up on discovering what it's all about on their own.
2. If they realize that oil is finite and will deplete, that's great, but you need to move them to the point of understanding that production peaks around the time the half the oil is gone, and so it's not a matter of running out, it's a matter of supply-and-demand causing prices to rise after that point is reached.
3. Ask lots of questions instead of telling them things. Ask what they think will happen. Ask until they tell you they don't know, and then stop. There's your seed. If you tell them things, then they can argue against them. If they're telling you things, then you can question them until they themselves learn where the limits of their ideas are.
4. Bring books to meetings like "Twilight in the Desert" and "The End of Oil" and "The Long Emergency". Hopefully someone will ask you what they're about.
Your #3 hits it dead on. I've given up, as it appears few want to hear about it; but that seems a good way to plant some productive seeds.
thanks.
Also, I find that people have two minds about these things; just like in sci fi. One half of our minds think that things will grow exponentially forever, the other brain thinks that things will crash and burn.
I've had a couple conversations where people went from cornucopian to apocalypic, and then back again. So I suspect that both parts are there already. People just don't want to dwell on mortality in any respect.
And mortality is ultimately what we're talking about. Mortality of the society triggers inevitable thoughts of mortality of the self, and most of us don't want to go there. At least very often, and only with certain people.
Also, I've talked about investments with certain people, and they'll go from talking about having a lot of money in surprisingly speculative investments, to refusing to have more in their savings accounts than will be covered by FDIC. I've in the past been baffled, but next time I may point out that long before any non-FDIC savings is at risk, their stocks and Merrill Lynch accounts will evaporate.
Hi Antonietta.
I've had success in getting my letters to the editor published in the major papers in Arizona -- on politics and the military, but they haven't printed my letters on peak oil. I stopped trying, thinking there wasn't much point, and that if people did figure it out they'd overrun my little town and start speculating on all land suitable for homesteading, etc.
But this thread has inspired me, and here is the letter I'm about to send around.
PS, my wife and I got together with the extended family and bought some arable land on the edge of town, have built an off grid, very modest adobe "desert hobbit house" and planted a large garden with a couple dozen fruit trees.
We're trying to walk the talk, and try to show (to others and to ourselves) that being sustainable isn't a drag, but can be very beautiful, fun, and nourishing.
Unless we make the appropriate steps ourselves and lead the way, of what use are our warnings?
Bingo. Mortality of the self is the seat of most delusion.
Really, a majority of people choose to believe that they will survive physical death. They don't think that worms eating their brains will necessarily introduce any sort of discontinuity into their existence.
That being the case, it is surprising that the human ability to rationalize lesser things away is so well-honed?
Humans tend to vacillate between hubris and fatalism. Walking that knife edge is stressful and requires constant thinking, which is annoying.
If anything, the notion of humans being subject to the same rules which govern the population of yeast or reindeer is more threatening than the idea of personal death. Lotsa luck educating the world....
really.
Good luck, Antoinetta!
That's a very attractive name, makes me feel good just rolling it around my tongue.
I find it difficult talking about Peak Oil to people. But I have noticed a pattern emerging. Those people who have a great deal invested in the "system" and have a lot to loose, are the one's who reject the idea the most forcefully. On the other hand, I've actually tried conversing about the subject with few individuals who are literally hanging on to society with their fingertips. Bums, junkies and winoes. Oddly, it's them who seem most receptive to the idea that the whole cardhouse could come crashing down. Is it because they've seen through the veil? Is it because they don't have that much to lose? Is it because they secretly want everybody to feel their pain too? Is it because they somehow know that the rest of us are all plastic palace people?
<Googling>Veeery Interesting ... </Googled>
Maybe y'all can have Woolsey come out and talk again:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2460#comment-180174
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
Asking for help is the smartest thing you could do. There must be lots of TOD people in your area.
There are. Look for them in your area's "buy local" campaign, your local "slow food" group, and your local farmer's market.
It's fairly easy to make the case that many of the problems we see now are the result of unlimited growth in a finite environment. No tin foil hat there. What you propose to do about it is harder. I think your best bet is hooking up with some others - don't need many.
cfm in Gray, ME
Been trying to avoid TOD, time management, disposition thing but its tough so real quick.
Antoinetta the third,
"Peak Oil" is currently a loaded term, says you may hold odd and currently non mainstream ideas. "Oil Shortage" is likewise loaded from the 1970s. Maybe try something along the lines of, "Energy prices have been increasing rapidly in the recent past and there are many reasons to believe this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. We need to be sure to provide for this contingency in any future plans we make". Avoids the topic but gets at the crux of the problem. Instead of hearing PO people will hear about rising energy costs and be thinking, "heck yea, darn tootin' right", etc. but the measures to take are the same, except for the drastic measures. And really telling someone they are crazy to build their 1000 unit condo complex after they already have the blueprints for their villa in France just doesn't go over well. Best wishes on this.
As regards talking with people about PO, I've had some rather anomalous experiences. Mentioned PO to my sister who lives with her family on an acre with some fruit trees and chickens and well water next to a vineyard in Northern California. She said she she mentioned to her husband maybe they should move into the city to which he evidently replied, "What if they riot" 'nuff said. Told two of my older brothers to Google Peak oil. Since heard that one has bought stock in coal and the other in oil. Which says to me, yes we are aware and consider this an issue. Though it might pain me a bit to admit it, I consider them very responsible members of society so its not like you say "uproot your family and move to a tree fort in rural Vermont".
Hard to say how all this will turn out. In clinical trials and medicine there is a term called "regression to the mean". This implies that one gets a really extraordinary piece of data it is often an outlier and regresses to the mean when the test or trial is repeated. On this board I've heard a similar idea presented as "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" Also just looking at probabilities in most instances there are a large number of ways for things to turn out ordinarily and very few for them to turn out extraordinarily. Unfortunately, week by week the extraordinary case seems to my judgment to gain increasing support. Let's hope even if the extraordinary is valid we all come through without to much hardship.
Best Wishes
PDM
Hi Antoinetta - I'm across the Bay in Berkeley. We have some smart people here and one can generally convince them about the validity of PO although it's not what they'd prefer to listen to. I'm sure they put it out of their minds immediately (and try to avoid me in the future!). I think humans are basically optimistic and are genetically programmed to reject news that the world is going to hell-in-a-handbag. I’ve been advocating simple steps like putting in European-style bike lanes so we aren’t forced to use our cars. You’d think Berkeley could pull this off – but it’s uphill all the way.
I don’t think anything will be done to address PO until we’re smacked in the face with high gas prices. These will likely co-exist with a collapsing economy triggered by the bursting housing bubble. The housing tumble is just starting and will extend for 2 to 3 years as waves of adjustable no-doc mortgages reset. And for those who would like something new to worry about, check out the sites tracking unfunded municipal and state debt. I think Simmons is right – by the end of this year will see price hikes that start to convince folks that something is going on.
It all adds up to a very dismal future – hopefully just a steady decline – but who wants to think about this. Part of the problem is not knowing which direction things will go: Japanese-style deflation, hyper-inflation, or mad max-time. Do I buy puts on stocks or a bolt-hole in Idaho?
Hi D,
Had somewhat the same experience with my wife. I've been talking about PO for about two years--she listens, but doesn't say much. In general, her attitude has been that things will work out. In a friendly, humorous way she sometimes calls me Doomsday Boy.
The other day she came in the room and said, "I read the GAO report."
I was surprised. "You mean the Peak Oil one?"
"Yes. What are we going to do?"
Somehow, she needed it affirmed by the GAO in order to discuss it directly, although she had been thinking about it. Now she asks preparation questions and PO appears in some form in almost all our tactical/strategic planning discussions. She's still "positive" in that she says "Things will work out," but generally she concludes with, "Well, at least we'll have each other...."
She's a pratical, hard-working woman--nobody's fool. She thinks everything through before acting. Yet gradually it has dawned on me that "everything will work out" means for her that no matter what happens (no matter whether our plans work out or not) we are loyal and caring for each other.
"She's a pratical, hard-working woman--nobody's fool. She thinks everything through before acting. Yet gradually it has dawned on me that "everything will work out" means for her that no matter what happens (no matter whether our plans work out or not) we are loyal and caring for each other."
Sounds to me like you are a very lucky man Ric. Take care of each other!
There has been written an exellent book by a swedish doctor about how people react when they are told they have a disease that means that they are shortly going to die.
EVERYONE reacts first with denial, then with anger. It is the same with PO. You are the doctor who tells other people that their lifestile is doomed/dead.
Better not telling others, you only hurt yourself. Do your own preps and watch the events ongoing. Do not forget to by some popcorn to chew on when you are watching the drama.
I'd prefer to have my family on board, at least the ones that I could stand to live with. Any of my trusted friends as well. It will be good to have friends post peak who are as prepared as you are. It doesn't matter how awesome you are, you have to sleep sometime, and it's good to have someone keeping an eye on things while that happens. :) (Literally and metaphorically.. Simply put, one person can't do everything.)
Yes, you are right about that. But do not bother to tell other outside of your inner circle.
Matt Simmons said in a recent intervju, that within a year PO will be bigger news in media than GW. If so other people will be aware in that time frame without you having to tell them.
"Do not forget to by some popcorn to chew on when you are watching the drama."
Can't do that - all the popcorn went to the ethanol plant :-(
Delusional,
Welcome to the club. I have been irritating my wife for going onto 2 years now. With the last 6 months being a near constant feed of "why bad things are just ahead" articles and information.
She is more aware than most (and infinitely more patient) but still can't commit to wholesale life changes that I would do. But she has bought into the "reduce debt and build efficiency plan" because there is little downside if my "prophecies" never materialize. Recently she is starting to connect the dots and take my warnings about energy and disposable income more seriously. Ultimately she has helped me plan like we will live forever but live like there is no tomorrow without being a consumer.
This has all been tough on the marriage but I am confident that when things really start to unravel we will both be mentally prepared and on the same page. This will allow us to act, as a team, to deal with issues rather than going through all the stages of grief at that time. I would much rather trade some a small amount of heartache now for a strong, willing partner in the future.
Best of luck with your situation and tread carefully. The good ones are worth keeping!
I also find that the average reaction is that people turn you off. I don't think it's conditioning that causes it, though. I think when it's explained reasonably well people get the point. Their reaction then is "Either you're wrong and there's nothing to worry about, or you're right and the problem is so big there's nothing to be done." Having decided that there's no need for them to react in either case (either there's no need or it won't make a difference), they get on with their lives.
Most people don't seem ready to completely reframe their lives on the off chance that I'm not insane. 'Tis a puzzlement.
Having infected my girlfriend with the concepts of Peak Oil, global heating, collapse of complex societies, resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, species and habitat destruction and the like, she is now referred to as "Debbie Downer" by her family....
Talking about Peak Oil really does make one sound like a prophet, a prophet of doom. Doom isn't a subject most people want to talk or think about, which is understandable and reasonable.
I agree with Dan Simmons, if I've understood him correctly, that it's not so much the actually shortage of availble oil, in the short term, that is our big problem. The Big Problem isn't Peak Oil. The real trouble is how the market will react to the "news" once it goes mainstream. For lots of reasons the stock market has a tendancy to overreact to good and bad news. We are currently in a precarious situation, especially in the US where the housing bubble may be collapsing, with potentially dire consequences for the american economy. Already the US is weighed down by a mountain of debt, borrowing well over ten billion dollars a week and wasting over a trillion a year in military expenditure.
So, if Peak Oil suddenly pops onto the front pages on top of everything else, we could be heading for a very rough ride indeed.
I'm beginning to find a bit of acceptance in those near me. My wife, a most wonderful person, is very PO aware and fully supportive. (or visa versa) People at work are coming around one by one. I gave a talk this weekend and afterward the discussion went right to gardening, co-ops, and lifestyle.
I believe a big hurddle is realizing that PO may not be the end of the world it simply means TEOTWAWKI. A big difference there. Just maybe we can still live and be 'happy'.
So much of the pain that we will experience will be self inflicted. Not by conditions but the fear of what those conditions will mean. And that will make it worse.
If the oil supply is threatened how likely are we to make lifestyle changes our first priority? No we'll react in the interest of National Security, of course. The gas is $4 in Death Valley. A friend asked a trucker. "What will you do if it get's really high?" He said we'll just pass it along to the consumer. Not a hint that perhaps the cargo better be pretty damn essential if that's gonna work. "Get thee to the non-....
There is some discretionary behavior that is about to unfold both globally and locally. Americans are probably going to believe that the world depends on their dollars a whole lot more than they really do. Nobody wants our piggy bank full of IOU's. Where will the oil go? If it moves at all, it'll go where both the money and the political influence are.
In Africa for instance the Chinese are making deals while we plan military bases. Our gameplan looks flawed.
My point. We better be ready to make the mother of all transitions in the way we run our lives. Also, unless we can get the word out to enough people of what to expect, they are going to find some above ground cause to blame. As with the TPTB program you don't want to be that above ground cause.
That's why the sit back and enjoy the show idea worries me. I'm pretty sure this show can jump right through the camera lense and into our living room. Kunstler is right to go after the media. Better to keep trying to get the word out. I still believe forewarned people will make better choices.
This is why I think the ExxonMobil/CERA position (trillions & trillions of barrels of oil) is so damaging.
In effect, they are encouraging people to proceed with the SUV/Suburban way of life.
There are going to be some plenty pissed off FWO (Formerly Well Off) Americans as their SUV's are repossessed and as their McMansions are sold in foreclosure auctions.
The semi-logical conclusion that a lot of Americans will draw--based on the ExxonMobil/CERA pronouncements--is that oil is being deliberately withheld off the market in order to drive the price up.
From the Housing Bubble:
"This is why I think the ExxonMobil/CERA position (trillions & trillions of barrels of oil) is so damaging."
Kind of a set up for 'above ground factors'
"In effect, they are encouraging people to proceed with the SUV/Suburban way of life."
Pissed off FWO's. WT, that's another one!
This is what I mean -
‘For this rise in foreclosures to be happening in the midst of a strong labor market is truly unique and scary’
Apart from repeating an article of faith concerning how Americans view their economy, what facts support this idea of a strong labor market? There are a number of facts showing it is anything but strong - like foreclosure rates, for example.
Reality is happening, unavoidably, but as it doesn't fit into the framework which reality is supposed to, most Americans keep repeating the same items of faith.
Chanting may help the soul, but it won't bring rain, or fill the pipeline with oil.
This is in part what I meant - the pain is self-inflicted, as reality doesn't care about any person's dreams.
And the reality is, all societies have collapsed in the end, but watching a society teeter off the edge because it now can't imagine changing itself in any significant way (and turned its back on changing itself when I was younger) has been fascinating in a morbid way.
The changes are coming anyways, but there is a major difference between trying to prepare and having those preparations fall short, and doing nothing and just being overwhelmed by 'random events.'
I was shaking my head and pondering about the madness of it all, then I saw the Dow nearing an all-time high again and rolled my eyes. How can this insanity be? I wondered.
But of course, everyone isn't insane or even stupid, what's happening must be rational and systematic. The system is rationally dealing with the increasing stresses within itself. Somehow, everybody doing really dumb stupid things is necessary for the system to maintain stability. Voila! Now it all makes sense, its just a matter of context :)
A man, frozen in mid fall after slipping on a banana skin, would like a lunatic if viewed out of context. Arms and legs flailing all over the place, eyes popping out of his head, all in an effort to regain his balance. Presumably, what we are seeing is the same sort of thing, but in an economic sense :)
In such an environment, madness is rewarded by the system, whereas rationality is strongly discouraged. We're done for :(
That's it, I'm off to weed my raised beds. Dejectedly!
Kunstler's comments this week marked a turning for him, I think. Gone were the usual petards about running the interstate, WalMart and Disney World... he's beginning to focus on the media.
Right! And one must admit that Kunstler does have a flair for words:
That was the best line I've read all week.
Ron Patterson
The media is the problem. There seem to be enormous structural problems in the american mass media. The biggest is a bias towards stupidity. If the american media couldn't tell the truth about the absurd claims that dragged the nation into an agressive and totally unnecessary war in Iraq, why would anyone think they'ed suddenly change and start covering Peak Oil properly?
Dealing with the problems arising from Peak Oil will require a new type of public discourse smack in the middle of the "town square". The debate needs to force its way centre stage and push the froth and trivia aside, for ever. We really need to get serious once more. Get serious about ourselves, our democracy and the future.
But this will require a re-structuring of the US media, away from lies, banality and concentration, and towards popular influence and democratic control. The media barons have to be kicked out of their castles by a peasants revolt.
Stupidity is a virtue in a dying empire.
Ex-Worker Ordered Not to Discuss Wal-Mart's Spy Operations
And speaking of toxic waste:
U.S. Army Ships 1.8 Million Gallons off VX Wastewater
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/04/17/1326249
This morning, WBAL news interviewed local students that were on-campus during the VT shooting. Despite what they said, few of them seemed sad, despondent, or troubled. One very pretty coed in a (Johns) Hopkins sweatshirt was particularly bubbly and smiling. One young male student had a bit of a smile, another had a matter-of-fact look.
I'm wondering if these were simply the ones selected by the TV editors, or if the excitement of the event, and of being interviewed, trumped the tragedy.
Also:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/04/french_post_off.html#more
One of those moments:
Check the news at Google.
The dollar index closed under 82 last Friday (81.93).
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/W
Just FYI.
The dollar index below 80 is the next psycho barrier. One of the financial advisers I follow says that from then on there's no rock bottom.
Luis, when everyone starts to talk about how there's nowhere to go but down, that's usually an indication that a bottom has been reached. Afterall, if everyone has placed their bets on the dollar falling further, who is left to sustain the trend?
I think we are on the verge of a deflationary spiral, which should result in much higher demand for cash to pay off debts and cover living expenses as asset prices fall substantially. My bet (figuratively speaking) is on a short squeeze in the dollar.
Stoneleigh: If China decides to play rough, there will be plenty more bets being placed against the US dollar. The currency has never been in this position (being almost solely supported by foreign governments).
Max dollar low is .6200 according to Jim Sinclair (www.jsmineset.com)
From ‘A Question or Two About Gold’
http://www.urbansurvival.com/
OK, you masters of monetary wisdom. Tell me why, supposedly as a response to high inflation in the UK, the Sterling went UP relative to the US$?
Because, as far as I understand things, this makes it more likely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at their monthly meeting in May in an effort to combat inflation. This then makes Sterling a more attractive investment than the US Dollar because the returns on investments in Sterling will be higher.
Thus people sell Dollars to buy Sterling which pushes the price of Sterling higher.
The same kind of thinking is what is also driving the Euro higher vs the US Dollar as well.
BINGO....
vtpeaknik,
Watch interest rates around the world. We are basically the ONLY industrialzed country that is not raising rates right now. Nearly every bank that matters is raising rates while we are sitting still. What I find most interesting is that we are in the same climate as Japan found itself prior to the collapse of their Nikkei. The world was raising rates while they were not.
Eventually I can forsee a dollar carry trade as the dollar hedgemony ends. It appears far closer than forecasted, however I believe the plunge protection team has a few more tricks up their sleeves. Also keep in mind the rally in the market (NYSE) is index led only and I see yahoo finance tried to spin this into "biggest stocks - less risk" so they should go up while the rest of the economy tanks. WTFever.
Someone is playing too much in the markets. I am hearing so many mainstream people (friends in finance) talking about intervention by "someone." No one wants to admit it COULD be our own govt. What a farse.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-drought1707apr17,0,3...
'"The agriculture industry is really scared right now,'' Bronson said. "If [Lake Okeechobee] gets down around 8 feet, we are in for a serious, serious problem" that could affect the world's food supply and prices.'
Why would it affect the whole world if a lake in Florida sinks?
I think they meant "Disney" World. :-)
I imaging it's for the same reason Ghawar crashing would affect world oil prices - even though we don't all buy all our oil from Saudi Arabia.
It isn't just the 'lake' (the largest fresh-water lake in the US), it's the whole South Florida watershed. So. Fla. is a very large ag area, probably on the order of the Calif. central valley in dollar volume. This prolonged drought possibility is a serious matter.
My view of ag issues is similar to some of the discussions on this site of oil demand destruction in the face of supply constraints (voluntary or not). The poorer nations are hit first...
If Florida beef, citrus, vegetables and sugar productions drops, wealthy nations will bid up the price of Australian beef and Israeli oranges, etc. Food variety and availability to the poorer nations will be the first affected.
The largest fresh-water lake in the US is just north of me. It's Lake Superior. We'll see how long before that lake disappears as well.
Tom A-B
Technically, the largest lake entirely in the US is Lake Michigan, Superior being shared with Canada.
-
James Gervais
Hope was the last ill to escape Pandora's box.
Correct, it might be a bit of a stretch to say it's going to affect the world, it would sure affect the US if Florida could not irrigate their crops.
Marginal Utility Theory....econ 101. The marginal producer sets the price. The marginal loss of this lake will create so much pressure on the remaining producers that they will strain to increase supply due to marginally higher prices. When discussing food, this could be real bad, but I dont give a damn really as I'm fully prepared to do what I must to secure my staples should TS truly HTF. I'm sure most here are.
You mean they are not already secured?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Another water story:
Global Warming Hits Southwest
The article mentions "peak water" and "the end of cheap energy" downpage ...
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
Floating nuclear power stations raise spectre of Chernobyl at sea
VS the drums of waste dumped at sea, the few subs that have gone missing, the few bombs that are on the seabed, and the English who have a 300 foot long tunnel that dumps radioactive material into the sea which will need millions of pounds to clean up?
*picks up sign*
*points at sign*
What about the Failure mode costs?
They just sort of sit on the bottom. The failure mode doesnt cost anything.
The failure mode DOES cost - said material is migrating (or eventually will) back into the biosphere. The now concentrated heavy metals and radioisotopes do effect the local life.
So how is it different than Chernobyl?
Just because it is not costing YOU some money out of your pocket does not mean there is no cost.
Chernobyl was a graphite reactor fire that dispersed nearly 10% of the reactor into the atmosphere in a populated area with iodine deficiency. A floating nuclear reactor disaster just sinks. Migration of longer lived radioisotopes largely contained on the sea floor is something people will fret about no matter how much it doesnt affect them, where inhaling short lived radio-iodine after a reactor explosion has a rather measurable effect on the rate of thyroid cancers.
We have more to worry about pumping large quantities of chemical wastes into the sea than the concentrated wrecks of sunk nuclear reactors.
Also, another Chernobyl requires that similar ciminally insane experiments to be conducted. Chernobyl was not an accident.