DrumBeat: April 18, 2007
Posted by Leanan on April 18, 2007 - 9:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Energy diplomacy with attitude
When it comes to oil, Americans let markets and consumption set the agenda. The 1973 shock didn't change behavior in a durable way. Neither did the spike of the early 1980s. The post-September 11, 2001, trajectory saw the price of standard crude oil move from under US$25 per barrel in September 2003, tripling to around $80 per barrel last year.
Ethanol cars may not be healthier
Ethanol vehicles may have worse effects on human health than conventional petrol, US scientists have warned.A computer model set up to simulate air quality in 2020 found that in some areas ozone levels would increase if all cars were run on bioethanol.
Deaths from respiratory problems and asthma attacks would increase with such levels, the researchers reported in Environmental Science and Technology.
Brazil Seeks Cut in U.S. Ethanol Import Duties
The United States may ease ethanol import duties by the end of next year, helping Brazilian producers gain access to markets in the world's largest consumer of the fuel, Brazil's top ethanol official said Monday.
The Federation Council, with the support of the Agriculture Ministry, has prepared a bill for introduction into the State Duma to lower the excise tax on bioethanol fuel to encourage the development of bioenergy in Russia. Tax breaks are being proposed for oil refineries that add alcohol to their fuel.
Big biofuel plant to be built on Canadian Prairies
North America's biggest biofuel refinery will be built in central Alberta near the town of Innisfail, and could be producing fuels in the third quarter of 2008, the plant's developers said on Tuesday.
The Pentagon does not admit that a ring of permanent US military bases is operating or under construction throughout Africa. But nobody doubts the American military buildup on the African continent is well underway.
Fueling our Future Energy Needs
By 2030, the world will still be grasping for fossil fuels to meet its power demands. And despite the recent clamor for the development of renewable resources, the three major fossil fuels--oil, coal and gas--will be vital to the world's future energy needs.
This is from last year, but I hadn't seen it until EB posted a link yesterday: Risks of the oil transition
In our view, therefore, the oil transition brings more long-term environmental concerns than long-term economic or security threats because tradeoffs have strong potential to be resolved by accepting increased environmental damage in order to avoid economic or security risks.
Record profits from oil may soon ooze away
The doubling of oil prices over the past few years has produced enormous windfalls for oil companies. But those record profits are likely to recede in the years ahead - even if oil prices don't - as oil-producing nations increasingly demand a bigger share of the wealth.
Behind high gas prices: The refinery crunch
When gasoline prices surge, a lack of refining capacity is often blamed. What's being done, and is it enough?
Where next for crude oil and oil stocks?
The trebling of oil prices in recent years has left both investors and the broader public with the conviction that the world is facing an inevitable energy crisis.
Armenia, Iran, Russia to open talks on oil refinery
Government officials from Armenia, Iran and Russia will meet soon to discuss an ambitious idea to build a big oil refinery on the Armenian-Iranian border that would cater for the Iranian market.
Fossil Fuel Watch - Humbugs Along the Potomac
With a track record for erroneous forecasting that verges on the spectacular, why should anyone bother to listen to EIA when more reliable predictions can be found on the daily astrology page? When agency statisticians issue prediction like these, they are going well beyond the cut-and-dried world of extraction volumes, refinery outputs, fuel imports, and implied demand for refined products. Embedded in EIA’s monthly prognostications are assumptions regarding, for example, hurricane activity, geopolitical tensions, the structural integrity of key pipelines, and the veracity of OPEC’s communiqués. And every month these statisticians peer into the future and conclude, perhaps with the aid of tarot cards and/or tea leaves, that nothing that could go wrong will go wrong.
Betting on falling oil prices? Bet long
It isn't a scarcity that keeps crude prices elevated. It's an excess of crime and government -- along with, yes, record-setting increases in demand. Prices would nevertheless fall, notwithstanding crime and government, were the supply of oil increased -- and it will most certainly increase. These things take time. In the meantime, producer countries are content, consumer countries are complacent and the big oil companies (who are responsible for only 15 per cent of world oil output) are pleased to reward investors.
Ironically, the family farm may become of vital importance just as it sings its swan song. In 1956, geologist M. King Hubbert correctly anticipated that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. In his recent book, Hubbert’s Peak, geologist Kenneth Deffeyes applied his colleague’s methods and emerged with an estimate for when world oil production would peak—November 24, 2005, US Thanksgiving. While this date is being debated by oil experts, dire forecasts like Deffeyes’ seem plausible in light of oil prices of $65 US per barrel or more. With rising oil prices comes a renewed focus on localized, organic farming.
Chavez Says He Won't Kick Out U.S. Oil Companies
President Hugo Chavez on Monday denied that his leftist government plans to expel U.S. oil companies from Venezuela, althought he added that "there won't be another drop of oil" from his country for the United States should Washington launch a "new aggression" against Caracas.
Does Anyone Really Care About Global Warming
I watched a documentary the other day called “The Great Global Warming Swindle” from the BBC. The basic premise of the documentary was to show that carbon dioxide is not the main cause of global warming, that the sun’s energy output is, and it is not the threat that certain political interests would have us believe. The science of the documentary seemed sound and I would be hard pressed to argue against the data without more study. Much of what they said I was already aware of. They also showed how Al Gore had misused data to push a political agenda and a world government imposed solution. They discussed how certain scientists were included as authors in a United Nations report on global warming even though they had asked to be removed from the list of authors. They spoke of how they were not being paid by oil interests. It was all very interesting. They stated that there was no doubt climate change existed and that we were in the middle of it, the doubt was in what the main cause is. They gave me little reason to doubt them until near the very end. That’s when their true colors showed. They might not have been paid by oil interests, but they suddenly started advocating coal interests.
The vast power of the Saudi lobby
The long and corrupt history of American-Saudi relations centers around the kingdom’s vast reserves of easily extractable oil, of course. Ever since President Franklin D. Roosevelt met aboard ship in 1945 with King Ibn Saud, the special relationship with the desert kingdom has only grown stronger. The House of Saud is usually happy to sell us oil at a consistent and reasonable price — and then increase production if unseemly market forces drive the world price of a barrel too high for U.S. consumers.
Sustainable Living Book Helps Families Save Energy, Save Money
Sustainable Living: For Home, Neighborhood and Community is about using less energy, spending less money, and enjoying it more. It's about how neighbors can benefit from working and sharing together. And it's about how all of a community's neighborhoods and residents can benefit from cooperative effort.
Robert Redford chats about the new green programming on the Sundance Channel.
Ghana: German legislator cautions on nuclear power
A German legislator, Dr Axel Berg, has advised the Kufuor government to be cautious in considering nuclear energy as an option in view of environmental, cost and accessibility implications.He said maintaining and operating a nuclear grid can be very dear especially considering extending its facility to a vast span of communities in the country.
Chevron exec: Ethanol means no new refineries
Investment doesn’t make sense, despite U.S. need to import gasoline
A top Chevron Corp. executive said Tuesday the push to displace as much as a fifth of the country's gasoline with ethanol will make it less likely the industry will build new domestic refineries.
Mexico energy minister says no oil privatization
Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said on Tuesday the country would not privatize its energy sector companies but urged lawmakers from all parties to start a new debate on how to shore-up declining oil output....She said 55 percent of Mexico's current oil production comes from fields that are in decline and Mexico's oil reserves as they stand will last just over nine years.
"Even though work on exploration and production has not stopped ... it will not be possible to sustain the production platform at the historical highs registered in previous years," she said.
Outlook for hybrid sales iffy, polls show - Incentives boost sales of Prius, but performance questions persist
The 2007 Prius goes from 0 to 60 mph in a sluggish 10.1 seconds and achieves a top speed of only 105 mph, which could leave many new-car buyers cold.
Iraqi oil law nears final stage
Iraq's hotly debated draft oil law is to be sent to parliament "within the coming few days if everything goes well," the Oil Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday.
Governments in the U.S. Prepare for Peak Oil
A recent US Government Accountability Office report says that since most studies suggest decline of oil within around three decades, the US government must prepare the country for that eventuality. Here are links to this and other reports, plus articles that interpret them.
Venezuela threatens no oil takeover compensation
Venezuela threatened on Tuesday not to compensate some foreign oil companies in its planned takeover of their multibillion-dollar projects in the OPEC nation's vast Orinoco reserve.
EU should not discard military to secure oil, expert says
Simon Henderson, director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that Europe should assess all options, including military, when looking at its oil-supply security in the 21st century.
Rebel leader warns foreign firms of exploiting Darfur oil
A Darfur rebel group has warned today foreign oil firms against exploring oil and Mineral in the western Sudan province, saying they would not allow it.
‘India’s energy use, growth de-linked’
Detailing the steps taken by India towards sustainable development, its United Nations Ambassador Nirupam Sen told the Security Council that it has delivered a GDP growth of 8 per cent with only 3.7 per cent growth in its total primary energy consumption.
Byron King: Oil booms and busts
When you go to the gas station to fill the tank of your car, do you really think about how it all happens? Do you mentally picture the tanker trucks, the storage terminals, the long-distance pipelines, the refineries, the gathering system that brought the oil ashore or the tankers that hauled the oil from some overseas loading terminal? Do you have a mental image of some oil well somewhere, lifting oil from the depths of the Earth? Do you appreciate that some geologist came up with a prospect and laid his or her reputation on the line to convince a financial backer to fund the drilling of an oil well? The crust of the Earth is, I assure you, pockmarked with the dry holes of failed oil exploration efforts. Like many things in this world, it only looks easy.
World now faces competition between food and fuel, expert warns
GLOBAL grain yields must rise sharply over the next 50 years to avoid food shortages as an increasingly rich population competes with biofuels for scarce resources, the head of the Scottish Agricultural College has said.
Report: Global energy axis shifts
International consulting company Deloitte has claimed that the world’s energy axis is changing directions and will now point toward such places as Saudi Arabia, the Caspian Sea region, Siberia and Canada.
The Never-Ending Oil "Conspiracy"
The evil oil companies are at it again. The price of a gallon of gas has jumped by more than 30 cents in the past month. The gasoline gougers are busy reaping windfall profits.
A variety of factors have contributed to this question: the military debacle of the U.S. in Iraq and of Israel, its only 100 per cent ally, in Lebanon, which precipitated comprehensive domestic crises of confidence inside both countries; the immensity of U.S. deficits and instability of the dollar as the pre-eminent global currency; the challenges of the famous "pink tide" in Latin America; the resurgence of Russian power and high rates of growth in China and India; "resource wars", that is, the emergence of giant energy producers and consumers on the one hand and, on the other, what Michael Klare calls "energo-fascism" in which, he avers, the Pentagon has increasingly become a "global oil protection service".
Groups challenge Shell's Alaska drilling plans
Five environmental groups and an Alaska native organization said on Tuesday they were challenging the U.S. government's decision to allow Royal Dutch Shell Plc to explore for oil off the northern coast of Alaska this summer.
Chrysler set for two new Michigan plants
Chrysler Group is set to unveil plans to build two new factories in Michigan as part of a planned $3-billion investment in more fuel efficient vehicles, according to state and company officials.
Security Council tackles climate change
During the first U.N. Security Council debate on climate change, Britain argued that global conflicts are ignited over the issue, while developing nations said the topic didn't belong on the council's agenda.
Researchers debate warming, hurricanes
The debate over whether global warming affects hurricanes may be running into some unexpected turbulence. Many researchers believe warming is causing the storms to get stronger, while others aren't so sure. Now, a new study raises the possibility that global warming might even make it harder for hurricanes to form.
The MSNBC article didn't mention the Honda hybrids, which use the electric drive to enhance acceleration. In that sense, Honda is trying to sell their hybrids as competitive within current driving styles, while Toyota is going for the green status symbol.
Zero to 60 in ten seconds. Top speed 105. How lame.
Still, since I have the luxury of walking to work, and pretty much anywhere I care to go, I can't comprehend numbers like that.
I'm looking for a Masaratti Hybrid for those few car trips I take: Zero to 60 in 5 seconds -- now that is great! Much easier to kill dogs and kids and deer. Top speed 230mph. That will really cover the ground to Grandma's house at Thanksgiving. Even with bumper to bumper six lane traffic, I'll get there 10 minutes earlier. And Grandma will be so pleased that I beat my brother that she will cut him out of the will, and I'll take home all the cookies.
Never: Top speed of 105 is so lame. So what if the maximum legal speed in NA is 70 mph? What is crucial is that we prevent those evildoers under 25 from driving (LOL).
Let's make a person's speed limit the same as their age. The older you get the faster you can go. Seems fair to me. I'm 55... :-)
Should probably use some sort of bell curve to achieve a Peak Speed at around age 40.
Actually, 75 mph on Interstates in Nevada.
Those performance numbers are perfectly acceptable for a general purpose vehicle. In fact, those numbers don't necessarily capture the responsiveness of a vehicle off th eline since electric motors have a flat torque curve unlike ICEs. One could also argue that all gasoline powered vehicles have become increasingly overpowered. A Honda Accord V6 has around 240 HP and 7 second 0-60 times, comparable to expensive sport sedans of ten years ago. All the technological gains of the past two decades has gone into greater HP rather than fuel efficiency.
BTW, the hybrid Honda Civic is comparable in performance to the Prius. None of them focus on 0-60 times, which is just as it should be. The hybrid Camry posts numbers in the 7 second range, but its fuel economy is twenty percent worse than the Prius.
I would agree.
I used to own a 1994 BMW 325i convertible and its inline six had 194 HP and that car was pretty damn fast.
Now even the non-luxury, family sedans have substantially more standard horse power than my old BMW 3 series.
Rather than using advances in motor technology to increase fuel efficiency, the manufactures have chosen to raise HP.
I read somewhere that Honda was going for performance - perhaps it was only the Accord.
That is correct. The Accord Hybrid gets good performance but terrible gas mileage (< 30 MPG>) and does not sell well.
From one of Leannan's links above:
I think this sentence might win the WTF award of the day. A top speed of ONLY 105mph? Gawd forbid!
Somehow I doubt that buyers of the Prius are concerned about the fact that it won't go faster than 105mph. I mean, my Civic has a top speed of around 130mph, but believe me that top speed had nothing to do with my selection of the vehicle. I bought my Civic because it was the highest MPG car that wasn't an Insight. (I couldn't afford an Insight back in 2000)
Plus, 0-60 in 10.1 seconds isn't that bad. I can guarantee that my another one of my cars would be beat by the Prius on 0-60 any day, and it doesn't bother me any. All it means is that you don't pull in front of people that you shouldn't have been pulling in front of to begin with.
Acceleration and top speed are not everything in an automobile.
Alan Drake
Happy owner of a 1982 Mercedes Benz 240D (manual transmission which allows me to downshift going up ramps, etc.) 30 to 31 mpg in the city.
It is the muscle car crowd that turns up their nose at 0-60 in 10 seconds. I agree - people who want a Prius won't really care all that much about this.
A friend of mine in the steel business was complaining about the rise in nickel prices and sent me this. I am sorry if it has been debunked or refuted on TOD during a previous drumbeat.
Just the differential life expectancies in this comparison are laughable. Giving the Hummer 3x the Prius allows the production costs to be spread over 3x the miles. There is no real-world basis for this. Many Priuses now into their 2nd and 3rd 100K miles. This 'report' is balderdash.
Thanks Cliff,
You are the person I need. I am trying to decide whether to buy an all electric Vectrix maxi scooter. I am at the decision point and I am wondering if the 10 year life span of the NiMH battery is valid. The retail price is $11k. Is this viable?
Sorry, I'm not a battery expert at all. But this link shows what is typical of what I find when I look for info - that these batteries will not need replacing in the short term - 5 years or less: http://www.hybridcars.com/forums/hybrid-battery-life-t836.html?s=2222309...
I'm not sure if 10 years is viable, but certainly something on the order of 7 or so. There are still Toyota Rav4 EV's in service with their original NiMH battery packs with over 100,000 miles on them. NiMH battery tech has improved since then as well. The number of years will depend more on the DOD (Depth of Discharge) more than the actual years. (Lithium Ion batteries will degrade over time even if they're not abused.) I believe that you'll be able to get at leaast 7 years out of the battery pack in the Vectrix. Plus, when it comes time to replace the battery pack, you will probably be able to replace it with an even cheaper NiMH pack, or Lithium Ion. (NiMH has been getting much cheaper over the past few years, with increased capacities.)
As with all batteries, the life will depend on how you treat them.
There is some interesting info on NiMH batteries from Stan Ovshinsky's(featured in "Who Killed The Electric Car") company at www.ovonics.com If you dig around, there are some presentations and things relevant to your battery life question.
I think 10 year lifetime is correct.
I can't really see it being a sure thing from a numbers point of view, even under a moderate "Doomer" forcast.
Consider that it is easy to find a 250cc Honda Reflex:
say 2-3 years old with a couple of thousand miles on it, for about $3,000.
Freeway legal, simple 4 cycle engine, lots of access to spare parts and folks who know how to service it etc. etc.
So, if we are assuming an ownership life of 10 years are you going to save the $8,000 difference in price on fuel costs?
The Reflex will give you about 70 mpg city / highway combined. If you drive 10K miles per year (which is a lot for most bikes) then thats about 150 gallons of fuel a year, or 1500 gallons for the 10 years you may operate the bike.
If you assume that the average price of gas over the next 10 years might be $5.30 a gallon then you would be somewhere near break even on the fuel (assuming electricity to be free).
Moderate Doom Model: Gas prices ramp up in a straight line from $3/gal now to $15/gal in 10 years. avg. price is thus $9 per gallon X 1500 = $13,500 lifecycle fuel bill.
In this case you would be ahead by $5500, or $550 per year by going with the electric. This is not as big a deal as it sounds given that no matter what bike you buy your going to be spending several $1,000 per year in fixed costs: Insurance, tires, helmet and leathers, routine service (Yes I know electrics are better there but not totally).
Further you are much more likly to be able to buy the Reflex for cash, avoiding debt and having a repo proof vehicle is a very good thing.
The Vectrix is still vapor ware i.e. you can't actually drive one off the lot right now, and the durability of its mechanical systems, and the long term availability of spare parts are unknown.
So you see where I'm going... anyway spring IS here and its a good time to be on a bike, good luck
Your analysis demonstrates why electric vehicles, of any type, will never be nothing more than a small niche market unless we see radical changes in the costs of EVs or radical changes in the cost of gas or both. I am a fairly early adopter and will spend extra money for environmental reasons (I own a Prius), but there are limits, even for me, and besides we cannot build a robust market on environmental issues alone.
But here's the other thing. Even if extra costs mean little or nothing, think what you could do with the price differential between the EV and the ICE. If carbon reduction is your game, you can do a lot of carbon reduction with the price differential . It might be more productive to put that money into solar panels, solar thermal, wind, insulation, etc. etc.
To a certain extent, a similar analysis applies to ethanol. Even if one concludes that the EROEI of ethanol is not a problem or an issue, what are the societal costs of investing in that approach versus investing in alternative approaches that are energy related. Just because on approach has a positive benefit cost ratio doesn't mean that is the best place to put your money.
I thought about this way also. I purchased a Honda Elite brand new for 2,000, I wanted the next model up for highway use, but I already own a BMW Rockster anniversay edition. I love riding the little elite. Depending on load I think it can get up to 100 mpg. Great for running errands. Though I would caution everyone that decides to get a bike of any type. Get a good helmet, spend some bucks on it. Don't ride in sandals try not to in tennis shoes (please), and be aware of whats going on around you. Watch your rear when your stop at lights, signs etc.
I looked at the electric bikes a couple of years ago, batteries, I use Nicads in video production. If you do them right then they will last. If you don't, they start to loose the ability to take a full charge. They are a collection of many cells. One of those big fat batteries ou see on the back of a professional video camera (called a brick) used to drive 12v's (charges to 16v)(many of your battery devices are able to work with higher voltage). Take it apart and its several C type's (the big round batteries generally used for flashlights wired together and put in a case). Your paying a lot for the less weight, gell cells are much cheaper, but heavier.
You can store 5,10, or more gallons of fuel easily for shortages, just remember you must add a fuel additive to keep the gas from turning to varnish.
If you buy a bike that can go on the highway and haven't ridden before. Find a bike training class at one of the bike shops around town.
One more thing to check is the insurance on the electric bike. Be interested to know. Liability isn't the issue. If you get collision, comprehensive, etc then it could be higher than you think. I would check Geico, they do have the best rates, at least for my bike (BMW) it was 900.00 a year at Nationwide, at Geico it dropped to $400.00. They do advertise (Hey, Im smokey) they do bikes.) The BMW was high because of parts and they are expensive. I was really surprised at the Geico rate, they specialize it seems. I checked many other companies than Nationwide and they were all in Nationwides ballpark.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
I have owned a few cars now in my life and I am not somebody who trades-in a car for a new model. I always want to keep riding them until they die of misery.
However, I have never owned a car more than 4 years.
Wrecked some of them, some died from heartattacks before their time, got a company car once, moved to another country and back and gave one away.
So conclusion: It's not so clear you will own a car for 10+ years, or a motor cycle for that matter.
I've only owned two cars in my entire life. The first one (a Ford Taurus) I used for 16 years, until it became so unreliable it started stranding me.
My current car is a two-year-old Toyota Corolla. I chose it with the idea that it would be the last car I own. If I drive it 25 years until I retire and move some place where I don't need to drive, great. If the gas stations run permanently dry this summer...well, at least I didn't spend too much on the car.
Thanks for the analysis and I have always assumed that the gasoline models would be cheaper, but have considered the other aspects as a balance.
1. Vectrix does not appear to be vapor ware as they have delivered in Italy and I may get on the list for delivery for $300.00.
2. I assume that because I can afford it I am "financing future cheaper production" as more become available. The first cell phone adopters virtually paid for several towers by themselves.
3. If gas does run short I would still be tooling around with out much guilt, while those with the scooters will be hunched over their neighbors car trying to siphon the tank.
4. Vectrix will drop ship the thing to my house, provided I have insurance and a motorcycle endorsement. They want to get the product in the hands of the public.
Thanks again for the love and I have until May 15 to determine if the ones rolled out in Italy really are as advertised.
Here's a link to slashdot that pokes the same hole in this story.
http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/03/20/1858204&from=rss
However in response to your assertion that you know of some Prius's into their 3rd 100k miles. Do you know of any Prius using the original battery after 200k miles? As I understand it, the Prius battery needs replacement after it's useful life. This would lend support to the original story as it's the nickle in the battery that is the biggest culprit in the cost and envirornmental comparison.
Vancouver taxis - leave it to the Canadians to be smart enough to use these as taxis... Here's the pertinent excerpt from: http://consumerguideauto.howstuffworks.com/hybrid-batteries-none-the-wor...
Toyota's Prius has been around for the last six years and is the U.S.' most-popular hybrid.
While Toyota's Prius wasn't the first hybrid to be sold in the U.S. (that honor goes to the low-volume two-seat Honda Insight), it was certainly the first to sell in reasonable numbers. Introduced in the U.S. for the 2001 model year, it was redesigned for 2004, offering more room, more power, and even better fuel-economy figures.
Helped by rising fuel costs, sales of the second-generation Prius took off. Toyota built about 52,000 of the first-generation cars, and so far has added more than 214,000 of the latest version. That means there have been well over a quarter-million Prius Hybrids sold in the U.S., making it by far the country's most popular hybrid.
And Toyota claims that not one has required a battery replacement due to malfunction or "wearing out." The only replacement batteries sold--at the retail price of $3000--have been for cars that were involved in accidents. Toyota further claims that the nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery packs used in all Prius models are expected to last the life of the car with very little to no degradation in power capability.
For those of us who have cell phones and other devices with NiMH batteries, that claim may sound unrealistic. Over time, the battery's charge longevity seems to wane, resulting in shorter and shorter usage between charges. Eventually, the battery becomes worthless and we buy a replacement.
But in the case of most electronic devices, the batteries tend to get fully charged, then nearly fully discharged before being charged again. For the power pack in the Prius, at least, Toyota says this would greatly shorten the life span of the battery.
A navigation screen converts to show the driver what type of power the Prius is using, gas or electric.
To get maximum life out of the Prius battery pack, the car's computer brain does not allow the battery to fully charge or discharge. Toyota says that for the best service life, the Prius battery likes to be kept at about a 60 percent charge. In normal operation, the system usually lets the charge level vary only 10-15 percentage points. Therefore, the battery is rarely more than 75 percent charged, or less than 45 percent charged.
If you're familiar with the Prius, you know there's a battery-charge indicator on the instrument panel. Toyota says this isn't the charge level per se, but rather a state-of-charge window. The top of the window represents about a 75 percent charge, the bottom about 45 percent charge.
According to Toyota, the life of the Prius battery pack is determined more by mileage than by time, and it has been tested to 180,000 miles. Supporting this are first- and second-generation Prius taxis in Canada that have reportedly traveled more than 200,000 miles without suffering any battery problems.
The amount of misinformation on the Prius on this site bothers me. TOD is usually better. As an owner of a Prius since 2003 (one of the first in Iowa) with 60,000 miles on it I believe I know something about Toyota hybrids. I live in Iowa and see extremes of temperature from -15F to 100+ F air temperatures. I car pool with one passenger and drive 2-3 days each week.
I track my mpg every tank. Fuel in vs miles traveled. I have done this for all cars and trucks I have owned for 30 years. In the depths of winter at 15 below with head winds I had a low of 38mpg for a tank. I have an unheated garage and a wife that uses the Prius (instead of the Subaru Outback) when I don't drive it. She drives only short 2-5 mile trips dropping kids off at school and to her work. So cold short trips and the low was 38 mpg this winter using 10% ethanol gas.
Spring and Fall, like right now, I get 50-52mpg on a tank commuting 70 miles round trip on rural interstate. Of the 450 miles in a tank around 50 will not be interstate. So I get 45-50 on the interstate and a whole lot better in town. Intermediate driving in town is often above 70mpg for 25-20 minute trips. No car I have ever driven has the upside potential for miles per gallon.
Mid summer with the air on constantly I get dinged 2-3 mpg down to the upper 40's for the same driving. The electric air conditioner is much more efficient than most cars belt driven air. As in winter what dings the gas milage is getting the car into operating range and setting the cabin temperature to acceptable for passengers, 72-76 summer 68-72 winter.
As stated above by others the Prius manages battery charge to preserve the battery pack not maximize electric driving. The battery is constatntly charging and discharging but only in a band centered on 80% of full charge. The prius is astoundingly responsive at any speed. Acceleration is linear, not sigmoid. Cruising at 68 but needing to pass at 75 allows nearly instantaneous acceleration, no lag as in conventional drive trains. The constant accelaration from 0-35 is startling to people unfamiliar with the Prius. The car is quick rather than top end fast.
The Subaru has a milage meter on it like the Prius and I drive both similarly. The Subaru can get around 30 on the highway but mixed driving is low to mid 20's. The Prius is alway 20 mpg better minimum. I was in a very great hurry last week to get to a meeting and drove for 30+ miles above 90 mph in the Prius, with my passenger, the whole way. Surprising I didn't pass everyone on the road lots of people out there are driving over 80 mph daily on rural interstates, posted is 70mph. My gas milage dropped maybe 1.5-2 mpg for that excess. I just filled it and calculated 49.4 mpg for 430 miles.
The Prius weighs 3000 pounds but weight is not that relevant. Stopping all that weight recharges the battery more efficiently than a light weight car. What few people, who don't own hybrids, realize is that you rarely drive 100's of miles at very high speed. You have to slow down. The Toyota hybrids just shut of in that mode and burn no gas and recharges the battery top maximum allowed. At 400-500 mile on a 10 gallon tank of gas you ALWAYS have opportunity for slow speed hyper milage.
I know of dozens of people who have Prius's, four in the parking lot at work alone. ALl say the same thing. The hybrids allow very high milage with very little sacrifice in performance, if you need it it there. Driving it with a lead foot will give you gas milage in the 30's, but do that in a conventional car and you are in the teens or worse. No owner that I know of has had a battery failure and maintenance costs are LESS than a conventional car. Change the oil and rotate the tires every 5000 miles. Thats it.
I would love to use mass transit. It not available. I would love to get 100 mpg. Its not available. I would love to get 40 mpg with a 4x4 pickup truck because I go off road. Its not available.
What is available right now is a car that gets 45-50 mpg. Can cruise at 70 all day. Seats 5 comfortably. Hauls lots of stuff even with the 5. Is very reliable and has 10 years of testing now in Japan without battery failures. Why are people still saying this is bad technology and we should build Hummers?
The facts don't back up those statements and the Japanese are going to eat our lunch unless we stop looking for negatives and focus on the positives of high milage vehicles and transportation.
NC - Hoping your "misinformation" intro wasn't aimed at me in spite of its placement as a reply. I, too, own a Prius, and while I don't see it as the saviour of our society (we are going to have to get used to travelling less post-peak, to say the least) I concur with your 'it's what's best available now'. I get 53 mpg on an annual basis - high 40's in winter, high 50's in summer. I also find that the A/C drain is minimal. Much more than offset by the lighter air resistance. This guy's site is fascinating in that regard: http://privatenrg.com/ Also, since it's difficult to learn how to drive (pulse and glide) from Toyota, here's this:
http://hybridcars.about.com/od/news/a/100mpgrecord.htm
My goal is a plug-in conversion to be charged from PV panels on the house...
Clifman,
Original post not aimed at you, just logical location at the end of the string. You had already provided a link I was trying for first person experience comment
I agree with plug in's and solar. It is the next logical step based on the Toyota Synergy drivetrain. It is obvious to me that if the power density of batteries can be improved significantly than the Synergy drive benefits. Nothing new needs to be invented. Charging the battery using PV, wind, or other just eliminates need to burn fuel as often to recharge.
I am convinced Toyota has a very long term strategy that they are working towards. Substituting stored energy in a battery for stored energy in a liquid fuel is the first critical step on that path. I believe Toyota will increase reliance on the electric drive while they decrease reliance on the gasoline engine side.
They will work out the real world bugs of power density, charging, heating, air conditioning, safety, towing stress, cold weather performance, etc. as they move towards a greater reliance on electricity and less on internal combustion. Maybe ultra capacitors have a place. Maybe on board solar films. Plug ins or rapid charging. Lots of details can be working on if you have a platform to change variables and measure success.
I do not see a similar coherent strategy from any of the American manufactures. The devil is always in the details and solving these takes time, money, and real world testing. Not theoretical concept cars that never get launched.
NC, thanks for this post.
I too am tired of all of the misinformation about the Prius. Its like someone wants to kill it like the electric car.
The Prius seats 5 comfortably. I am 6'2" and can sit in the back seat with the front seats fully back. There aren't many cars of any size that I can sit in the back of with the front seats fully forward.
I do not use any special driving techniques and consistently get 46-48mpg, despite a commute over an 1800' pass and mostly freeway speeds (and I'm not slogging along in the slow lane either).
At $3/gallon (its actually higher than that here) I am saving $1200 per year in gas bills over my former car (minivan). The Prius has an extremely low depriciation rate - I'll bet when gas prices go through the roof this summer that used Prius will again be selling for more than they originally cost.
The reason I bought it was because of the SULEV designation, but it is the best vehicle I have ever owned in every way.
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/reliability/would-you-buy-that-c...
Edit: In California, the battery is warranted to 150,000 miles.
I've owned many cars all the way from the bottom to the top of the line, and this is the best overall car I've ever owned. If the gas mileage doesn't convince you, the quiet and the room will. And, besides, it doubles as virtually a mini wagon.
Same here. Swiss Army Knife of vehicles. All weather. Take out the back covers and do some pretty serious hauling. We drive reasonable and pass 'em at the gas station :)
Interesting post.
Myself i am interested of buying a BEV(battery electric car), when the next generation of them comes out in the market. For example Mitsubishi says they will produce a Colt EV with Li Ion batteries somewhere around 2010.
Someone moore in the know of BEV:s than i am??
I believe Odograph has addressed this before. The key figure in the calculations (justifications?) is that they are attributing vastly longer lifetimes to SUVs than to economy cars. I could see maybe 1.5 to 1 but not 3 to 1.
The environmental arguments against the Prius' battery technology are probably valid and would apply against any EV, but there are environmental arguments against internal combustion vehicles that are simply not mentioned.
Look at the CR repair rates for the Prius and compare them to the Hummer...
Another aspect of the Hummer argument that seems spurious to me is that the Nimh batteries are recyclable, and that Nickel isn't going to be thrown out if the Pack dies. Besides power capacity, one of the main benefits of Nimh's is that the Electrolyte is far less toxic to the environment than the Cadmium is in Nicads.
But the whole argument isn't about Hummers v. Hybrids. It's a culture war, a class war that the US is far from facing. Gun Control, Creationism in the Classroom, Roe v. Wade.. it's all proxy code for the 'City Mouse/Country Mouse' , Middle-Class/Working Class, Red-Meat/Blue-Blood divide that is kept ripped wide open so the Middle and the Bottom fight each other instead of stopping to look at what the Top goes on doing uninterrupted while we bicker. Same thing happened during slavery, where Poor Whites were set up to Disdain poor Blacks.. keep them busy busting each other, cause they'd be too powerful to contain if they worked together. I can't say that it was a fully conscious plan, but would you put it past them?
Sweetness and Light,
Bob Fiske
Wikipedia tells me that the Sudbury basin produces 189,000 tons of nickel per year, so about 1/2 of one percent can be attributed to Prius batteries. The worst of the localized environmental damage (loss of plant life, etc) occured prior to the construction of the Superstack in 1972, although acid rain remained a problem until sulphur-control equipment was added in the 90's. Bottom line: don't blame the Prius for environmental damage in Sudbury.
CNW's numbers are based on the assumption that the Prius will be voluntarily junked after 109,000 miles, while a Hummer will be driven more than twice as far. I looked in their paper, and it seems that they reached this conclusion because: households that own a Prius generally consider it their second or third car, and only drive it 7000 miles a year (although CNW admits that this only seems to be true for early model Priuses). Since most cars aren't driven longer than 15 years, they cap the Prius' lifespan at 109,000 miles. George Will cited this same study about a week ago in his attempt to debunk efforts at global warming mitigation, so I expect we'll see these numbers thrown around for a while.
However, I do agree with the conclusion: "it doesn't have to be a hybrid, small and efficient is just fine."
peace,
lilnev
Sudbury is where a meteor landed long ago, and yes it USED to be a deadzone. My mother and father and both of their parents are from there. Back in the 70's 80's it was very bad. The sulphur in the exhaust of the stacks caused most of the local trees/bushes to die (exception of blueberries and some other species, birch maybe). However it has turned around with a scrubber stack added.
The nickel mine is now also one of the major sulphuric acid producers in Canada, a byproduct of the scrubbing.
The trees have recovered, and the enviroment has greatly recovered. There are indeed still large stacks of slag, however those will continue to pile up as nickel is processed. Trees are everywhere, and my parents agree that it looks much better than the past.
While regional environmental damage occurs due to nickel mining and processing this has to be weighted against the long term global effects of fossil carbon emissions. The GHG deniers are not about facts but about raising doubt. The Sudbury area has been a major source of nickel for the stainless steel industry for many decades before the NiMH battery was even invented. The article"s source of info has more to do with competition for a resource than about what has happened around Sudbury.
That is dead on as Thomas noted where I got the article, from a tool steel salesman.
Back in the day, 0-60 in about 10 seconds with quite good. It is just that our expectations for power have increased exponentially over the last few decades. I find that I get to my destination about the same time as everyone else in my Prius. And who in hell punches their vehicle for the first ten seconds, anyway?
Most people spend much of their times in traffic jams, anyway, so let's get over our juvenile obsession with super speeds. Grow up, America, and do just a little bit for the planet.
Oh, and yeh, even if the Prius did 0-60 in 7 seconds, this would not affect my actual acceleration time one iota.
Most speedometers in non hi-performance sedans display a top end speed that the car can not get to. Auto manufactures do this because they have found that in marketing studies, men subconsciously prefer the car that displays a higher top end speed on the speedometer, even if it is not the final and only reason why the car was selected to be purchased.
All Toyota has to do, is change out the speedometer in the Prius so that it reads as though the top end speed is 150mph, even though, the car may actually max out at 105mph. Most meat heads would not know any better.
The Prius has a digital-display spedometer. There is no visible "top" speed.
Top speed in my Prius = 106 mph (twice).
While I have not had my 2000 Civic HX up to 130mph, I have had it up to 125mph, and I had no doubt (as in the car didn't seem to have any problems going faster) that it could have reached the 130mph mark if not faster. The speedometer only goes to 130, but the RPM's were only at 4600 RPM when I was going 125, so with a redline of 7200 RPM, I think I could get beyond that 130. (Assuming I wasn't going up an incline. It would have to be flat.)
Durandal,
Just in case you didn't know, the tires on your car are "speed" rated. I doubt your tires are rated for that speed. They can fail at that speed. I once worked on a video for Cooper tires and watched/shot tires being made in their plant. You are not driving on racing tires, be careful.
Now my Stealth which is a true GTO car which means its ready for race off the assembly line, it could hug a corner and fly, and it gets 20mpg around town. My Geo Tracker I use now gets 25, but its a fun little thing. 4 wheel drive (auto) too, if I need it. Some wind deflection would help its mileage, its a flat windshield, box.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
Wind resistance increases at the square of velocity. Those first notches above 100 are pretty easy, but after that you start hitting a brick wall. You may find out that your car tops out a little sooner than you think. Also, because most engines make their horsepower at the top of RPM band (near redline) you may find yourself in a struggle between wind resistance and RPM. That is, the wind resistance may keep you from reaching the higher RPM necessary to make more power to battle the wind resistance to go faster. You could find yourself at "the brick wall" at 5,400 RPM...the extra horsepower will essentially be "trapped."
My 1967 Austin FX-4 will get to 60mph if I flog the bejeesus out of it but it is not recommended. More impressive is that no one has ever died of other than natural causes in the rear compartmnt of an FX-4. If that's something anyone cares about.
hey my 87 Toyota Tercel had that speed, brand spanking new, driven on the German autobahn, my top out was 105mph.I thought it took longer than 10.5 sec, felt more like 5 mins. While Mercedes and Bmw, they were doing 130 or better. Blew my doors! ahh the fun!
Hey-ho, the "free market" alive and well in the oil industry.
Why invest in new refineries when production of the primary feedstock, crude oil, is presently declining worldwide?
The recent supply shortage in Ontario should be a warning of how tight the supply chain is all over North America. Are the gasoline inventories stored near the consumption outlets and how much, like Ontario, depend upon a more "just in time" from refineries and a rail distribution system to bring in back up supplies when necessary? This year back up supplies may not be available if the refining situation keeps devoloping the way it has been. A series of random problems could spell major disruption.
I wish we could afford the life we are living.
The industry used to routinely keep 27 to 30 days of gasoline supply on hand. Currently we are down to about 21 days. That's why these five year numbers don't mean a whole lot. The same thing is true for crude oil.
This number regarding a loss in 6-9 days in gasoline supply is often trotted out. I hypothesize that it is the same storage capacity as the previous 25-30 years, and gasoline use has RISEN instead, resulting in a deceptive loss in gasoline supply.
To summarize, in 1970 we had 100 units saved and used up units at the rate of 3.33 per day. Today we have 100 units saved and use up 5.00 units per day.
It would be quite the capital investment to upgrade the supply. If someone more knowledgeable than myself could determine the actual LEVEL of supply storage that would be more than sufficient to disprove my hypothesis.
cheers
This is effectively what has occurred. There has been some storage capacity increase but it has not kept pace with rate of growth increase.
This is very curious if you believe CERA, that oil is going to be very abundant, that we will pump 100 mbpd by 2020 and 120 mbpd by 2030, etc., etc. In that scenario you clearly have a need for over 50% more storage than today, over 50% more refining than today, over 50% more pipelines...
Do you see where this is going? Even if the IOCs could not obtain reserves and became refining companies buying crude from NOCs, they would still need to massively upgrade their capacities and they should be doing it right now. Yet in the face of record profits they are not doing this. Why do you not build capacity when you are telling the world that we will need 50% more capacity in the next 23 years? Maybe they do not really believe their own nonsense?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
WT
I know that EIA statistics show a peak of oilproduction in may 2005. How sure are you that it was THE PEAK????
Re: 2005 peak of crude + condensate
More likely than not (preponderance of the evidence), but not beyond a reasonable doubt.
In the US, this is the difference between civil justice and criminal justice standards.
I still think the bottom up process has immense value.
The megaprojects database does not show exceeding the 2005 number and only produces potential new Peak Total Liquids in 2009, before heading downhill.
This is where I get confused why people are still predicting a peak in the future - 2010+. The database runs out to 2014.
Obviously, Ace's work with revising the graphs to include new decline numbers makes it even more ugly.
Revised Megaprojects production Graph
That said, it looks like we will know by June 30th(arbitrary, sure, but appropiate). IF KSA cannot ramp up pumping significantly (2MMBPD+), then we're all pooched.
Oh yeah, hurricane season starts June 15th.
Captain...Iceberg ahead!
Khebab's work on the Hybrid Shock Model also predicts a peak right now. We are getting this message via multiple pathways, coupled with reinforcing secondary circumstantial information.
You can choose to believe the data in front of you or you can choose to believe otherwise. However, if you choose to believe otherwise even in the face of substantial circumstantial information, you cannot say you were not warned.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Greyzone, I think you know where I stand...
But just so there no confusion on my position/post for others.
I believe we are PAST PEAK.(Deffeyes/Bakhatari/WT/Ace/Khebab/etc camp).
Or in simpler terms, PANIC NOW(Ace's graph should frighten you, we can count down in days if you like).
Or DON'T.
But just don't whine WTSHTF.
I remember reading in Energy Assurance Daily back in March (don't remember the exact date)that a refinery expansion in Quebec was going to be delayed a year and an expansion by the same company in Texas was to be cancelled. I think it was Valero but am not sure. Maybe they are becoming peak aware.
Hi WT/Jeffrey,
Just because I know you value accuracy...I thought quite a while back, someone said the existing US refineries had essentially been retro-fitted, adding real capacity (a lot, if I recall), just not by means of brand new refineries. I believe in order to get around having to deal with all of the obstacles to building a new refinery. Just my impression, but thought I'd mention it, in case it's relevant to something.
Also, wondering...change of subject, you asked (thinking aloud) the other day if it's wise to own non-ag property at all. My Q was (don't know if you saw it) - what about ag property? Is that better? (for a new purchase?) It seems most of the posters here who farm (farmer-owners) purchased quite a while ago.
Just a curiosity Q. I wonder what the finance folks here would say.
Along these lines, also wondered if you've thought any more about your idea of co-ownership of farm land? And if so, could you share your thoughts? (And where you might be thinking of?)(if you are.) (Hope this isn't too personal a question.)
I'll post a note on the 4/19 thread
HowTF is another US refinery going to redeuce our imports? Oh and SOME imports? You mean nearly 2 of every 3 barrels burned!
I think they are referring to imports of gasoline (i.e. domestic refinery capacity is not sufficient).
Right! Currently we are producing about 8.7 million barrels per day of gasoline and importing another .975 million barrels per day.
Those are the last four week averages from "This Week in Petroleum."
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
Those numbers will change when the new report comes out later today.
Ron Patterson
Darwinian
US produces almost half of the US demand of oil and gasoline. You should not have too big problems to adjust to PO. By conserving to the european level of oilconsumption, you could almost be selfsufficent with oil, and have time to mitigate the impact of PO far better than many other countrys.
In Sweden we have ZERO oilproduction. We are really going to be screwed when the crisis really arrives.
But your GOOD friends the Norwegians has lots of oil :-)
Best Hopes,
Alan
I have ties to Iceland and am aware of some of the Nordic relationships. I have spent over an hour with 5 Icelandic engineers being informed of the many and various character faults of Norwegians. Stealing Icelandic fish ranks VERY high !
Yes the norwegians are our best friends(truly), but then we are a member of the EU community, and i do not think that the norwegians are allowed to supply only us with oil.
Kenneth
Yes, Sweden is a full member of the EU, but Norway is not.
The Prime Minsiter of Norway called the Prime Minister of Iceland when Morgunblad ran an article about Iceland joining the EU. The Icelandic PM assured the Norwegian, Iceland will never join the EU.
If Norway sells Sweden oil, must you share it with Greece ?
Best Hopes,
Alan
No i hope not. When we had a referendum in Sweden about if we should join EU, i voted NO. But the Yes voters won with a small margin. Then we had a referendum about joining the EURO currency, and i voted NO. This time we won, and we have yet our Krona as currency(one of the six currencies in the USDX).
I believe, that the European union and EURO will collaps when PO and TEOTWAKI and WTSHTF fulfills.
Kenneth
Swede, not quite. The US produced, last week, 5.125 million barrels of oil per day. Total imports of petroleum products to the us this past week was 13.451 million barrels per day.
So last week we imported and produced about 18.58 million barrels per day of petroleum products. (Crude oil, gasoline, diesel, kerosecne, etc.) So we imported 72.5 percent of our petroleum feedstock and produce 27.2 percent.
27.5 percent is not quite "almost half".
Ron Patterson
OK, i got it wrong.
Not completely wrong, he forgot NGPL they are also part of the petroleum feed stock to produce petro products.
The latest data 2004 is 2.9 million Brl's per day.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table23.xls
5mb/d split up among 300 million Americans... That's not so bad. Gives you about 30-35 miles per day to drive around in your Prius. Of course, that's assuming Wal-Mart starts to ship goods ala Matt Simmons.
So its probably more like 15 miles/day national alotment(assuming you car gets 50 mpg) Better start working at home!