DrumBeat: April 24, 2007
Posted by Leanan on April 24, 2007 - 8:56am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Hansen: Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate
Peaking of global oil production may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 amount and climate change, depending upon choices made for subsequent energy sources. We suggest that, if estimates of oil and gas reserves by the Energy Information Administration are realistic, it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding approximately 450 ppm, provided that future exploitation of the huge reservoirs of coal and unconventional fossil fuels incorporates carbon capture and sequestration. Existing coal-fired power plants, without sequestration, must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this limit on atmospheric CO2. We also suggest that it is important to "stretch" oil reserves via energy efficiency, thus avoiding the need to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels. We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is probably needed to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.
Oil to Return to $78 a Barrel This Year, Pickens Says
Crude oil will likely return to its all-time high of $78.40 a barrel this year, according Boone Pickens, the Dallas hedge fund manager whose bullish bets on energy prices have earned him a place on the Forbes list of the richest Americans.
BP executives have waited for the oil and profits to gush forth, yet this behemoth has never produced any oil or gas, and the current plan is that it may begin production in late 2008. It was slapped around by two hurricanes in 2005. This delayed initial production for months, which has now become years.
GAO finds fraud in commuter program: Federal workers selling transit cards
It's a perk of federal employment: a free monthly subsidy that pays for commutes on public transportation. But scores of workers have been taking the government for a ride, selling their benefits on the Internet and pocketing millions in cash each year.
PricewaterhouseCoopers analysts forecast that in 2010, one-third of natural gas traded in the world will be liquefied.Meanwhile, Gazprom, a Russian monopoly with ambitions to be a global energy producer, is suffering from a bad shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export facilities. The feeling at the company is that this shortage is increasingly damaging its prospects, and its management has lately made some major efforts to develop its own production and export infrastructure for LNG. Gazprom is making preparations to win a sizeable part of the market in order to dominate it by 2030.
Russia Hopes to Become Major Oil Supplier
Russia is laying the infrastructure to become a major oil supplier to Asian countries, including an ambitious pipeline being built from Siberia to the Pacific coast, a Russian diplomat said Tuesday.
OPEC March oil demand weaker, cuts 2007 call by 120,000 bpd
Despite an uptick in its view of global economic growth this year, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is now expecting overall lower demand in 2007, the Middle East Economic Survey reported Monday.
Oil giant BP said its first-quarter net profits fell 17 percent compared with the same period in 2006, and lagged forecasts slightly, as oil prices and production fell.
Embrace efficiency, one watt at a time, as nation's 'fifth fuel'
By the year 2030, demand for electricity in the United States is expected to grow by approximately 40 percent, according to U.S. Department of Energy forecasts. To meet that need, plans to develop new nuclear and advanced cleaner-coal power plants and to retire older, less efficient coal plants, are under way at utilities throughout the nation.But there is another path that can help us achieve our country's goal of reliable, affordable and clean energy for all - energy efficiency. As the "fifth fuel," it can be as useful in meeting our growing energy needs as are the traditional generation sources of coal, nuclear, natural gas or renewable energy.
Peak Moment: Fossil Free by '33
Tam Hunt outlines a strategy for regional independence from fossil fuels -- and it centers around electricity. Start with efficiency & conservation, add renewables to replace fossil fuels for electricity, then add more renewables to electrify transportation such as plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. The result? A program "to save America's Environment and Economy one region at a time."
GM Exec Touts Renewable Energy Push
A top General Motors Corp. executive said Monday that the nation should accelerate the push toward renewable energy to fuel automobiles and said the conversion to ethanol as a leading contributor is "entirely realistic" in a few years.
Boeing in scheme to develop biofuel
Boeing, the US aerospace giant best known for making the 747 jumbo jet, is working on plans to develop a "biofuel blend" derived from plants or algae that could power conventional jets.
BMW AG says it is talking with the Chinese government about hydrogen-powered vehicles, trying to win Chinese support to promote hydrogen as a mainstream new energy solution.
Carbon Gas Is Explored as a Source of Ethanol
A New Zealand company said Monday that it had secured financing from an investor in Silicon Valley to produce ethanol from an untapped source — carbon monoxide gas.
Uganda: 'Country to Retain Most Oil Proceeds'
Uganda will retain a larger share of all the money from the sale of the petroleum produced from Western Uganda, according to the State Minister for Energy and Mineral Development, Mr Kamanda Bataringaya.Mr Kamanda's claim is the first revelation of what the country will earn from its newly discovered resource amidst speculation and fears that Uganda might be cheated out of its bounty and its citizens left poor like it has happened in many African countries.
Iraqi, Kurdish officials to iron out oil law
Officials from Iraq's central government and the Kurdistan region will meet this week to iron out last-minute disputes over a draft oil law that will decide control of the world's third largest oil reserves.
Russia and Japan plight to make Energy Relations and Trade Strong
The two ministers talked about two oil and gas projects in Sakhalin Island in Russia and an oil pipeline project in East Siberia, informed a foreign ministry official from Japan on the condition of keeping his identity close.
Predicting Gas Hydrates Location And Quantities Just Got Easier
Given that there's more carbon trapped inside ice-like crystals under the seafloor than in all the world's oil, gas and coal reserves combined, it seems like it would be easy to find. Up to now that hasn't been the case, but thanks to the award-winning research of Rice University graduate student Gaurav Bhatnagar, the search for gas hydrates just got easier.
Environmentally friendly death
Cremation is contributing to global warming, argues an Australian scientist who yesterday called for an end to the age-old tradition.
Daniel Yergin: Energy's Challenges
For starters, I will put three ideas on the table. But, before doing that, let us consider the scale of the enterprise. For it is not just the energy the world consumes today, but how much more it will consume in the future. At Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), we've developed new energy scenarios out to the year 2030. The implications are daunting.In a world of good economic growth, even with greater conservation, world energy demand grows by 75%. This reflects, more than anything else, the tremendous increase in automobile ownership and electricity consumption that will come with rising incomes.
Where we live may be to blame for rising obesity
Ever since two studies linked sprawl and obesity in 2003, study upon study has been published suggesting that our environment -- marked by car-oriented, isolated, unwalkable neighborhoods -- is having a deleterious influence on our health. In other words, sprawl is making us unhealthy, unhappy and fat.
Foreign Oil Firms in Libya Must Take Local Names
Large foreign firms working in Libya's oil industry have had to change their names to new ones reflecting the country's history and geography, the National Oil Corporation said on Saturday....France's Total has become "Mabruk Oil," the word Mabruk, which means "congratulations" in Arabic, being a popular boy's name in Libya.
Repsol of Spain becomes "Akakoss Petroleum Operations" -- a reference to the Akakoss mountains in the south of the country -- while the Italian natural gas firm ENI has opted for "Mellita Gas," named after the region where it operates west of Tripoli.
Norwegian authorities fear steep crude decline
What is the Norwegian Oil Director actually predicting here?He is establishing "a slow and gradual decline" as a best case scenario for Norway, concluding that "serious efforts must be made in several areas" to achieve it. The alternative scenario? Steep decline.
Nigerian Election Result Keeps Oil Market on Tenterhooks
Traders of West African crude oil are keeping their eyes firmly fixed on reaction to the result of the Nigerian presidential election to gauge whether oil flow from Africa's biggest producer will be in jeopardy.
Virgin plans to fly 747 on biofuel in 2008
The first commercial aircraft to be powered by biofuel will fly next year in what could be a significant step towards airlines reducing their oil consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.
In the fevered search for the fuel of tomorrow, a team of mit scientists has a surprising solution that just might be the most realistic one of all.
Texas Oil Falters in Performance as Benchmark
The mighty Texas crude-oil benchmark -- the per-barrel price watched obsessively by the markets and quoted by the media -- has diverged so drastically from prices of other grades of crude in recent weeks that some market participants are calling it a "broken benchmark."Several factors have combined to push the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil -- used as the basis for the world's most widely traded energy contract -- dollars below other desirable, so-called light sweet crudes.
...The disparity, which is partly rooted in structural changes in the energy markets -- including how and where oil is produced and shipped -- means the standard barrel of oil no longer has a straightforward price.
Looking at Enron, the war and the sun
Four outstanding public-affairs shows, including an Oscar-nominated film on the implosion of Enron, highlight this week's PBS lineup....Anyone remember solar energy?
"Saved by the Sun," on "Nova," shines a light on an energy source that many people have dismissed.
Timeline: The Frightening Future of Earth - LiveScience has peak oil listed for 2008.
Tapping the $1.42 Trillion Vein
Buildings are the nation’s worst culprits when it comes to energy consumption. In fact, buildings in the U.S. alone account for 9.5% of the world’s total energy consumption. That’s more than three times the annual energy use of the entire African continent!
Peak Oil Review -- April 23, 2007 - ASPO-USA surveys the energy situation.
Itty-bitty abodes quietly come back into vogue as the era of McMansions shows signs of peaking.
Whenever somebody complains about "the lies that George Bush & Co. told to get us into the Iraq war" (as Frank Rich did in The New York Times on Sunday), I wonder how those lies compare to the lies that the American public tells itself every day — for example, that we could run America without oil from the Middle East, or that hybrid cars will save Happy Motoring, or that we can have an economy without producing anything of value.
Playing with energy: Ghana`s energy crisis
A team of Brigham Young University students has achieved a feat that has eluded soft drink and clothing manufacturers for years. They have found a way to harness the energy of youth.Six students from BYU’s engineering department unveiled last Tuesday a playground merry-go-round that generates electricity as it spins. The goal is to provide an inexpensive, simple power source for remote school houses in developing nations.
Corporate subsidies that feed sprawl
Are government subsidies to job-promising corporations the waste of taxpayers' money that critics have long claimed — a zero-sum city-to-city and state-to-state shell game?Or are they worse? Do they foster sprawl, moving jobs out of cities, away from the workers in most need, and into better-off suburbs with little poverty, joblessness or affordable housing?
Norway: Smaller oil fields become important
At start-up in 2001, the Glitne field had four producing wells. Plans called for production to continue until 2003. Recoverable reserves were estimated to be 25 million barrels of oil."Everything now indicates that we'll recover twice as much, closer to 50 million barrels," says Rolf Saltkjel, Glitne's operations manager.
High oil prices, more reservoir expertise and increased demand and competition are driving forces behind ever extended production.
Italy Mulls Emergency Moves As River Dries Up
Italy is mulling emergency measures to replenish its biggest river and curb electricity consumption as unusually hot weather raises fears of a prolonged drought and power blackouts during the summer.
An island made by global warming
The map of Greenland will have to be redrawn. A new island has appeared off its coast, suddenly separated from the mainland by the melting of Greenland's enormous ice sheet, a development that is being seen as the most alarming sign of global warming.
'One of the problems that is happening right now is that construction costs are going up very rapidly. There is also a bottleneck in getting equipment and engineering firms,' said Zeta Rosenberg, an analyst with ICF Consulting and a co-author of the 2005 report, 'The Emerging Oil Refinery Capacity Crunch.''(Costs) are going up everywhere. What is happening is that commodity prices, such (as on) steel and cement, they have been going up, partly driven by demand in the Far East. Actually, China, India and the Middle East, all have growing demand,' Rosenberg said.
Capital costs have gone up about 65 percent in the past three or four years, and operating costs have risen by 30 percent, Rosenberg said.
More than three-quarters of the world’s oil is owned and controlled by the State. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have nationalised oil systems and bar foreign control over oil development. Foreign companies are hired only to provide specific services, for limited terms. They are given no direct interest in the oil produced. Iraq’s oil resources are estimated to be the second largest in the world. The draft Iraqi oil law would all but privatise Iraq’s oil industry under the cloak of “production-sharing agreements”.
Global Warming: Limits of Solar and Wind Power
As people across the US poured into Earth Day celebrations, they saw booths and heard speakers extolling the virtues of solar and wind power. What participants were highly unlikely to hear was that renewable energy cannot stop global warming without major social changes that Earth Day organizers rarely discussed.Keep in mind the difference between the words “necessary” and “sufficient.” Yes, expansion of solar and wind power is absolutely necessary to prevent CO2 levels from rising, coastal cities from being flooded and species from going extinct. But no, by themselves, solar and wind are not sufficient to make the use of energy sustainable.
Abu Dhabi to Keep June Term Crude Sales Steady
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) will maintain crude oil term supply volumes to Asia in June at May levels, lifters said on Tuesday, in line with OPEC's decision last month to keep existing supply curbs.
Mini-review: Energy Crossroads, PO documentary
How do you get your older Midwest relatives to swallow the Red Pill and understand why you're obsessed with peak oil? Or your scientific and engineering friends who wrinkle their noses at the mention of eco-villages and collapse?Tiroir A Films has just released a DVD for when End of Suburbia just won't do.
GlobalOilWatch.com Expands Content with Alternative Energy News
The online Energy news and research portal GlobalOilWatch.com expanded its real-time news content by adding a page dedicated to Alternative Energies on Earth Day 2007. This new page will include links to breaking news on ethanol, biofuels, and nuclear power as well as headlines on climate change and pollution.
U.N. panel to lay out steps on warming
After two reports predicting a warmer Earth where life is fundamentally changed, a U.N.-sponsored scientific panel next month will issue a third study describing how a united world can avert the worst, by embracing technologies ranging from nuclear power to manure controls.Under a best-case scenario for heading off severe damage, the global economy might lose as little as 3 percentage points of growth by 2030 in deploying technologies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, says the panel's draft report, obtained by The Associated Press.
But it won't be easy.
A Dutch company has successfully created algae photo-bioreactors for the purpose of producing biodiesel.
The looming oil crisis in Iran
Years of sanctions and lack of investment could impact its production and export by 2015.
Venezuela takeover may harm Orinoco oil projects
Venezuela's upcoming takeover of four large heavy oil projects will likely reduce the long-term efficiency of the OPEC nation's most important crude operations, analysts told Reuters on Monday.
Ford to develop 'sustainability strategy'
Ford Motor has promoted an executive to a top-level environmental remit in another reflection of green issues' elevation to the top of the US car industry's agenda.Susan Cischke will be responsible for establishing a "long-range sustainability strategy" and environmental and safety policy for the company, reporting to Alan Mulally, Ford's president and chief executive. Ms Cischke formerly reported to Ford's head of corporate affairs as head of Ford's environmental and safety engineering.
GM: Mortgage meltdown will hurt sales
“The market as a whole has been a little weakish. That has come as a result of the housing market problems and the mortgage industry meltdown,” Lutz told Reuters. “A lot of people are finding themselves in a position of reduced affordability and that has had an impact, not just on us, but across the industry.”
Toyota overtakes GM in global vehicle sales
Toyota Motor Corp. became the world’s top auto seller in the first three months of the year, passing rival General Motors Corp. for the first time, the Japanese automaker said Tuesday.
After a 35 year wait, American and British oil corporations are on the verge of securing control of Iraq's vast oil reserves. Becca Fisher reveals how the unholy alliance of Big Oil, government and the IMF is getting closer to its goal of reconstructing the Iraqi state to gain secure oil supplies.
LiveOffice Earth Day video
(It would never even occur to me to print out e-mails, unless it was something like driving instructions I needed in the car, but I guess a lot of people do it.)
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Launches Web site on Energy and
Environment
Leading up to Earth Day, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has launched a new website designed to raise conservation consciousness and show the contributions that the business community has made in protecting the environment. The Web site contains conservation tips for the road and home; environmental success stories from member businesses; and stresses that conservation is an important part of a comprehensive National Energy Policy which is vital for economic and national security.
74 dead at Chinese-run Africa oil field
Gunmen raided a Chinese-run oil field in eastern Ethiopia on Tuesday, killing 65 Ethiopians and nine Chinese workers, an official of the Chinese company said.Seven Chinese workers were kidnapped in the morning attack at the oil installation in a disputed region near the Somali border, Xu Shuang, the general manager of Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau, told The Associated Press.
China has increased its presence in Africa in recent years in a hunt for oil and other natural resources to feed its rapidly growing economy. Its forays into areas considered politically unstable, however, has exposed Chinese workers to attacks.
No one claimed responsibility for Tuesday's raid, but an Ethiopian rebel group warned last year that any investment in the Ogden area that also benefited the Ethiopian government "would not be tolerated."



The Truth About EPA Mileage Estimates
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=3549
IIHS and NHTSA Agree: SUV’s Safer Than Cars
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=3580
Saab's Come-On Includes Crashing Around the Arctic Circle
By Jason Harper
Maybe they should call this the Saab Arctic Melting Experience.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=ayaM9P4vO2NQ&refer=h...
Unfortuantely, bigger is usually better, when it comes to crash safety. A lot peak oilers use that to justify buying Explorers and Expeditions.
If you're worried about safety, I think the idea is that one should do everything they can to avoid getting into an accident. I suspect that driving a smaller, nimbler vehicle may have some gains in this area over a big, heavy SUV.
Also... What about SUV-SUV collisions? And I've seen more than one large SUV squished by an 18-wheeler. A Ford Excursion flattened vertically between a truck trailer and a concrete wall was an eye-opener. It seems that semis and busses don't enter into the mental safety equation for many people.
Car safety is a very complicated question. No easy answers.
-best,
Wolf
Oh, I agree. People are not rational when it comes to safety. They worry about their cars being crushed by an SUV, or about pesticides on apples. Then they drive to McDonalds without wearing a seatbelt, while smoking a cigarette.
That said...if the issue is 18-wheelers, you're probably in even more danger in a Corolla or Prius than you are in an Expedition. It's the difference between the weights of the vehicle that counts.
Maybe there is an advantage to a "nimbler" vehicle, but face, it, any "green" car is not going to be nimble. Nimble = high power per weight, which is the opposite of efficient.
Having survived a double collision with an 18 wheeler at highway speeds in a VW Scirocco (wt. ~2,000 lbs), I disagree.
What saved me was the stiffness to weight ratio.
Trucker fell asleep @ the wheel and "merged" into my front door. The car bounced and he hit it again (rear) and then I went into a wild spin.
My injuries were from the seat belt (internal bleeding) and a concussion from the sudden acceleration (explains some of my current behavior :-) And some light scratches from flying glass.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Sounds like what saved you is that it was a sideswipe, not head-on collision.
The second collision collapsed the rear bumper & hatchback.
The VW bounced both times rather than a major structural collapse. More weight, less stiffness = no bounce; just collapse.
I would have died in a Hummer.
Best Hopes,
Alan
And may have been designed that way. "Crumples zones" are part of passenger vehicle design.
That is one thing people don't consider about SUVs and minivans. Since they are considered light trucks, they are not required to meet the same safety standards that cars are. Also, roads are not designed for them. A high vehicle like an SUV or minivan will vault right over guardrail designed for cars.
However, both SUVs and roads have become a lot safer, simply because they are so popular. Guardrail has been redesigned with SUVs in mind, and SUVs and minivans are increasingly being held to car safety standards.
But if you're driving an older SUV, or on a road that hasn't been rehabbed recently, you are facing hazards car drivers are not.
Simpsons episode "Screaming Yellow Honkers"
Marge: Good Lord. How am I supposed to get in this beast?
[opens the door. A mechanized stepladder unfolds from
the doorsill] Hmm. Well, that's a nice feature. [gets
in]
Not much headroom, though. [the sunroof opens, allowing
her hair to spring out] Ooh! Well, I guess I can drive
it for a little while.
[the patter of little feet is heard, and then the kids
jump into the back seat]
Lisa: But mom, I read that sport-utility vehicles are more
likely to be in fatal accidents.
Bart: Fatal to the people in the other car. Let's roll.
LOL!
It's twue, it's twue!
SUVs did have a higher rate of fatalities because they were prone to rollovers, with their high center of gravity. But once that became an issue, the manufacturers fixed it.
Fatal to the people in the other car is also true. Particularly "t-bone" collisions. The SUV is so high it comes in over the side-door reinforcement of a car. People get killed even when they are wearing their seatbelts in fairly mild collisions.
They are trying to fix that by changing the design of car doors, but of course, that doesn't do anything for all the older cars on the road.
SUVs did have a higher rate of fatalities because they were prone to rollovers, with their high center of gravity. But once that became an issue, the manufacturers fixed it.
You can't fix physics ;) Active rollover control uses the braking system to attempt to reign in a vehicle that's out of control, but it ain't magic. The types of circumstance where SUVs tend to rollover are where they lose traction and then suddenly regain it while traveling sideways.
Also, Alan is correct above. Race cars are the perfect example of this in that you can have ~1200lb machines (indy, irl, F1) hitting walls at 180mph and the driver steps out with only minor injuries. Similar situation for nascar, ~3000lb machines, with wall and car on car action that would pancake and kill anyone in any 3000lb road car. The biggest problems with road cars are weak restraints and "cabin intrusion." Weak restraints allow you to flop around in the car and bash your head and body on stuff. "Cabin intrusion" is what everyone's always worried about - that is, hitting something, and the car smushing and coming into the passenger compartment. If people were really concerned about safety they'd wear helmets, it would cut deaths in half if not more.
The way to fix it is to force the SUVs to have bumpers at the same height as everything else. If this means they have to have disproportionately low bumpers and people don't like the look, so much the better.
OK folks, what's this constant attack on SUVs? Surely the major problem preventing our investment in energy alternatives is the low price of oil, and surely SUV drivers are doing us all a favor by burning through the stuff faster, and thus bringing us to the point where it will be economical to invest in alternatives sooner.
Now, you want to say that we need all the time that we can get? But as long as the price is low, do you really believe that private investors or the governments will move toward alternatives?
So, while I bike to work every day, let's all praise the SUVs which are burning through the fuel, and thus through the illusions, that lie a the base of our current economy, and hastening the arrival of economic realities that will make more forward looking investments and policies possible.
Also, from a climate change perspective, we need high fuel prices sooner... not later, so again, let's all praise SUV owners, and in fact let's require all cars to be constructed with heavy armor plating for passenger protection of course... but more importantly to decrease gas mileage and hasten the end of the oil age.
You think I'm kidding?
I'm not sure. I might not be.
What the 'Homo-Americus' branch of the human race is evolving to?
Get a volvo then. They will beat large chunks of metal in the safety stakes.
Or just mandate that all trucks need an iron bar at the back, somewhere around head height for an SUV (but normal cars would go under). Active safety selection.
"Active safety selection."
LOL!
A recent study by State Farm Insurance showed that children are 50% more likely to be injured in a SUV than in a smaller vehicle.
There's also been a steep rise in children being smushed from backing SUVs, due to the poorer rearward visability.
SUVs have lots of issues and I agree with the view that these are genuine problems. But a "steep rise in children being smushed from backing SUVs"? Cites please. I find that hard to believe. And no, I won't accept any "common sense" argument. As we all have seen, what someone thinks is "common sense" is often defied by the real statistical distribution of events so I'd want real data for this one.
And no, I do not drive an SUV.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
No, this is true. It's not just SUVs. It's also pickup trucks, which have become insanely popular in the U.S. over the past couple of decades.
People don't realize how bloody huge the blind spot is for some of these vehicles. They did a story on it on CNN, with a row of trucks and SUVs, and a traffic cone behind each one, representing how long the blind spot was. Some of them were just incredible.
Drivers unaware of rear blindspots accidentally backing over more small children, experts say
Some of the trucks and SUVs had blind spots that extended almost 50 feet (15m) from their rear bumpers. Most drivers have no clue that the blind spot is so large.
So where is the statistical data supporting the assertion? How many more children are dying than from cars?
I simply want to see the statistics but somehow I don't think you or anyone else have any real data here, just an assertion based on an observation.
P.S. You might be surprised at how poor rear visibility is in sedans with raised/larger than normal trunk space but I don't see people calling for action against those sedans.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Study: More Children Dying In Trucks' Blind Spots
And so far as I know, the only "action" being called for with SUVs is technology to reduce the blind spot. Cameras, mirrors, obstacle detection systems, etc.
One think to note is that the Prius sedan with its raised trunk has a wide-angle TV camera that comes on when the car is put into reverse. The driver watches it on the screen that normally tells you how many MPG you are getting.
IMO people play the odds, no one really cares about the car as much as they care about the cost of personal injuries. If you consider the number of illegals and people in general that drive with no insurance or woefully underinsured it isn't hard to see why people will try to hang on to their tanks as long as possible.
I have no problem riding the bike, but I rather see my daughters in a large vehicle.
As the economy gets worse this condition gets worse and worse, things will have to collapse to quite some degree before they start getting better.
Or you can put a very stiff tax on fuel, this would fix the problem on several levels at the same time.
This is one more reason to have a lot more internal immigration enforcement; just getting rid of all the drunk, uninsured, etc. illegal alien drivers would help fix the perception of SUV's as being necessary for safety.
Currently we see numerous news stories about the high foreclosure rate of subprime mortgages. A recent article titled "Is It Too Late to Get Out?" Housing Bubble Boondoggle by MIKE WHITNEY and published at counterpunch.com contained the following:
"the Federal Reserve and the five other federal agencies that regulate banks issued this statement just last week:
"Prudent workout arrangements that are consistent with safe and sound lending practices are generally in the long-term best interest of both the financial institution and the borrowerInstitutions will not face regulatory penalties if they pursue reasonable workout arrangements with borrowers."
Translation: "Rewrite the loans! Promise them anything! Just make sure they remain shackled to their houses!"
One of the points he makes in the article is that these foreclosures will have really bad consequences affecting most of the economy.
I began to wonder about the number of auto loans and what they are worth. What would happen if we experienced sudden gasoline shortages and the "news" came out that shortages and high prices will become part of the landscape for some time to come if not forever. What would I do if I was a youngster with a $500/month car payment? (Actually I have absolutely no knowledge of what auto's cost and what the monthly pay back would be, but 500 may be close.) What would I do if I had that monthly bill, no gasoline, AND my job is shaky because what won't be if gasoline is really expensive and not always reliably available? I might just say, "take it, it's yours" to the lender.
What would the lenders do with all those bright red BMW's and multi-featured SUV's? Would that be something sort of like the mortgage foreclosure (possibly much smaller though ) phenom?
Giving it back to the lender is what I would do. Bad credit is going to be a non-issue once PO awareness sets in.
Francois.
Unless you are forcibly drafted into the Halliburton work programs to workoff the debts. =(
Better....insurance fraud. My car got stolen and turned up burned to a crisp on the East Side. Damn...can I have my money now?
A Crude Awakening on CNBC
I just heard that they will have a special on CNBC today at 12 Eastern Time, 1PM Central. It will be about...well, I really don't know what it will be about but I think it will sound the alarm about a possible crude shortage in the near future. Of course they will have rebuttal opinions as well however.
It looks like the oil problem is appearing more and more in the news these days. I think the word is getting out. I just saw this on the web from "Live Science".
Ron Patterson
Speaking of Robelius, can you or anyone else point me toward data on the distribution of oil field productivity rates? I did a brain-dead calculation yesterday of the average production rate of the giants vs the non-giants (giants average 100,000 bpd, non-giants average 700 bpd) and that got me wondering what the productivity distribution curve looks like.
Mathew Simmonds does a number of assessments on giant oil fileds. This is one of them. Given that most of the giants are old the date should not be an issue! http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/giantoilfields.pdf