DrumBeat: July 19, 2007

In Case You Don’t Have Enough to Worry About Already

Dr. David Goodstein, a physics professor at Caltech and one of the presenters at the summit, lays out our future pretty convincingly. His book, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, goes into even more detail.

“Our civilization might very well collapse because it’s so dependent on oil,” Goodstein said at the presentation.

...As if that weren’t enough, I also spoke to physicist and engineer Dr. Paul MacReady, founder of Aerovironment (www.avinc.com). MacReady is the guy who did the GM Sunraycer and Impact electric cars and the Gossamers Albatross and Condor airplanes and who is currently working on any number of projects involving extraordinarily efficient ways to use sunlight to power airplanes. Four of his planes are in the Smithsonian.

Of the many points MacReady made, the one that hit me hardest was this: The current human population of the earth is 6.5 billion and is expected to go up to 9 billion by 2050.

“Our planet can sustain maybe 2 billion,” MacReady said.

So we have 4.5 billion too many guys walking around right now, and we’re making more of them every day. And every single one of them is going to want a BMW and a stucco house.

Pipeline attacks still not solved

Four explosions in the Bajio, a central region that's the stronghold of the ruling conservative National Action Party and a major manufacturing zone, disrupted the flow of natural gas between Mexico City and Guadalajara, the country's two biggest cities, and paralyzed pipelines in Veracruz and Guanajuato states.

General Motors and Nissan are said to have lost millions of dollars in production at their plants in the region.

But as the investigation into the bombings July 5 and July 10 drags on, the mystery only grows.


Bombs put Kirkuk in line as next hotbed

The oil-rich northern region of Iraq has enjoyed comparative calm since the toppling of Saddam's Hussein's government. But Kirkuk province, which had been viewed by many as a model for the rest of the country, may be turning into the next hotbed of sectarian slaughter.

Three bombings, including an enormous suicide truck blast, killed more than 80 people Monday in the city of Kirkuk, the deadliest attacks yet in an area of rising ethic tensions among Arabs, Turkomans and Kurds.


India eyes military favors for Myanmar oil

It appears that India is not going to make it easy for China to extend its influence in Myanmar to get a share of that country's rich gas resources. While recent oil negotiations have faltered between India and Myanmar, increased military cooperation might be New Delhi's second-best option to obtain favor and influence in the secretive Southeast Asian country.


CNPC and Turkmenistan Sign New Gas Cooperation Agreement

Witnessed by Chinese President Hu Jintao and the visiting Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, China National Petroleum Corporation signed the Amudariya River right shore gas production sharing contract and gas sales & purchase agreement with The State Agency For Management And Use Of Hydrocarbon Resources, Turkmengas, in Beijing.


Japan's nuclear plans in disarray

Reports of radiation leakages at a nuclear power plant after the Niigata earthquake on Monday have raised widespread public alarm and dealt a devastating blow to the Japanese government's plans to boost the nuclear-power industry, both domestically and abroad.

"The problems now being reported from the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant are deeply alarming. They prove that Japan is not prepared for a nuclear-power disaster, especially during an earthquake, and can never be," said Professor Hiroaki Koide, a nuclear-safety specialist at Kyoto University.


Russia plans big nuclear expansion

Before the Chernobyl accident threw everything atomic into disrepute, Soviet economic planners dreamed of mobile nuclear power stations that would light up remote Arctic towns.

Public antipathy and economic woes shelved those dreams for two decades. But now, under direct orders from the Kremlin, ambitious Soviet-era expansion plans are being dusted off and rapidly implemented – including the first-ever floating atomic power station, set to begin operations in the frigid White Sea by 2010.


Oil executives sound alarm about fuel use

When executives from the world's largest oil companies say we need to cut back on our consumption, it should serve as the ultimate wake-up call about a looming energy crunch.


Gasoline demand stays hot: Record fuel use causes concerns to reverberate

Motorists may gripe about the price at the gas pump, shake their fists at the oil companies, even dial up their members of Congress — but they're still filling their tanks at record levels.


Dingell's energy bill blind spot

A MILLION YEARS of compression and heat may someday convert Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.) into petroleum, just as it did the other dinosaurs. Unfortunately, by then there may be no humans left to pump a few gallons of Dingell into their Hummers, because the climate change he is so gleefully ignoring may have rendered us extinct.


New Energy Guidelines For PCs Aim To Cut Energy Use By 60%

On Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency's Energy Star Program will release more stringent requirements for PC manufacturers, aimed at potentially cutting energy use by 60%. For consumers, that could mean savings of anywhere from tens of dollars to $100 a year on electricity bills.


Dubai Crude Output Dpwnn Rapidly As Govt Moves To Crimp Decline

Production of Dubai's crude oil has fallen as much as a third in the past two years and is a fraction of that recorded in some government statements, company documents show, undermining the already fragile position of one of the world's top three oil price reference points.

Current output in the booming Persian Gulf sheikdom, one of seven semi-autonomous enclaves in the United Arab Emirates, is some two-thirds below the figure released by the national government, according to calculations by Dow Jones Newswires using data from the previous operators of the fields. It has fallen as much as a third in the past two years.

The Dubai government took over operating the oil fields in April from a joint-venture led by ConocoPhillips Corp. (COP), which has since complained of poor financial returns due to the structure of the previous operating agreement.


Money Alert for Mexican State Oil

Mexican oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) faces a paradoxical financial situation with extraordinary profits but a future of great debt, PEMEX General Director Jesus Reyes confirmed on Wednesday.


Tokyo Electric Shares Drop to 9-Month Low After Quake

Shares of Tokyo Electric Power Co. dropped to a nine-month low on concern the company's nuclear facility in central Japan, the world's biggest, may be shut for a year after an earthquake caused radioactive leaks.


Fatih Birol interview in Le Monde full translation

This interview was first brought to anglophone readers in a partial translation by Jerome a Paris and has been widely reported. This is the first full translation to hand.


US Econ Adviser Urges Russia to Spur Foreign Oil, Gas Investment

A top adviser on foreign economic policy to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice encouraged Russia Wednesday to give foreign companies a bigger role in developing its vast but remote oil and gas reserves in the Arctic and Eastern Siberia.


Singing the nation electric, Part 1: Fuels and Electrical Use

Let’s assume that we will eventually live in a world without fossil fuels, that is, without petroleum, coal, or natural gas. Will we all starve to death or devolve into roving bands of barbarians? If business as usual continues indefinitely, those outcomes are definitely possible, but let us further assume that reason will prevail and we all agree to restructure society so that it could get along without fossil fuels. What would we need to do?


Report Pooh-Poohs Corn Biofuels

Corn is not a viable biofuel source, says a new report released today by Food & Water Watch, the Network for New Energy Choices, and the Vermont Law School Institute for Energy and the Environment. The report claims that the corn ethanol refinery industry will not significantly offset U.S. fossil fuel consumption without unacceptable environmental and economic consequences.


Russia and Natural Gas

It seems like the French and British will always find something to tussle over. Out of their colonies in Africa and the Middle East, now the two European giants are fighting for favor with Russia. France is winning.

It involves intrigue worthy of Tolstoy, but with key elements unique to our age of fossil fuel scarcity.


Robert Putnam: Capital ideas

With great trepidation, he has just published his first, much awaited, paper on his five-year study of social capital in the US - the biggest survey of its kind - which concludes that ethnic diversity does reduce social capital. He found that the higher the diversity in a neighbourhood, the lower the levels of trust, political participation and happiness between and within the ethnic groups, and he called it "hunkering". But what has prompted criticism is not his analysis of hunkering, which the right has seized upon with delight, but his optimistic assertion that this is a short-term problem that, with "intelligence and creativity", can be overcome.


A box to make biofuel from car fumes

The world’s richest corporations and finest minds spend billions trying to solve the problem of carbon emissions, but three fishing buddies in North Wales believe they have cracked it.

They have developed a box which they say can be fixed underneath a car in place of the exhaust to trap the greenhouse gases blamed for global warming—including carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide—and emit mostly water vapor.


Washington urges Opec to raise production

Crude oil prices yesterday jumped more than $1 a barrel after an unexpected drop in US crude and products inventories and strong demand growth.

The inventories decline, which suggests a tightening of the crude oil market, came as the US government yesterday asked the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise its production.


EIA's Caruso: OPEC Needs to Up Production for 2nd Half 2007

OPEC should increase crude production in the second half of the year, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration Guy Caruso said Wednesday.

He warned that inaction by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could cause global and U.S. inventories to fall too low.


Ghana: Load shedding may outlive September deadline

Deputy Energy Minister, K.T. Hammond, has cast the first official stone, conceding rather grudgingly that government’s September end deadline to get the energy crisis over with, may not be met.


Crisis-hit Zimbabwe scraps fuel scheme

Zimbabwe has scrapped a scheme allowing fuel purchases with foreign currency, removing one of the few remaining ways for people to acquire petrol in a country struggling with a crumbling economy.


Kenya: State, Manufacturers Seek Deal to Avert Power Crisis

In an effort to avert a possible power crisis, the Government has pledged to offer special electricity tariffs to manufacturers who shift their operations to off-peak hours.


Executive Fuel Order Extended

Commercial fuel haulers in North Dakota can continue working longer hours, and driving to South Dakota and Minnesota in search of fuel.

Governor Hoeven has extended an executive order that allows for those provisions. It`s to help deal with an ongoing shortage caused by refinery problems in the Midwest.


Report: Japan Plant Had Another Leak

Japanese regulators discovered a fresh leak of radioactive material Thursday from a nuclear power plant damaged in an earthquake this week, a report said, adding to criticism of the embattled plant operator.

Nuclear inspectors probed the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, which suffered a barrage of leaks and malfunctions in Monday's 6.8-magnitude quake in northwestern Japan. The plant was ordered shut down indefinitely on Wednesday.


Ethanol stirs fear of water shortage

The mass quantity of water needed for Iowa's booming ethanol industry - billions of gallons each year - has raised concerns among state officials who say laws may be needed to prevent a water shortage in the state.


Lawmakers Propose Reform to Pemex Fiscal Regime

Mexican political parties PRI, PRD, Convergencia, PT and PVEM jointly submitted a bill to congress on Tuesday for the reform of state oil company Pemex's fiscal regime.

The proposal calls for reform of Mexico's federal duties law in order to provide Pemex with more resources for reinvestment in current operations, development of new opportunities and research, according to the legislation, which was published in the congressional gazette.


Flip in Brent structure points to drop in oil stocks

Brent oil futures have shifted into backwardation, a market condition that points to expectations of a tighter supply/demand picture that could shrink plentiful crude stocks.

The return of backwardation -- where crude for nearby delivery costs more than crude further forward -- could provide a signal for OPEC that crude oil supplies are no longer as abundant, potentially paving the way for a production increase.

"With backwardation, the market is starting to price in a very large crude oil draw," said Olivier Jakob, of oil consultants Petromatrix.


Tom Whipple: The Peak Oil Crisis: July 2007

While waiting for the formal release of the of National Petroleum Council’s report on the prospects for world oil and gas production, it seems like a good time to review the general peak oil situation prior to what many believe may be difficult times later this year.

The underlying fact is that OPEC oil production and indeed total world liquid fuel production currently is about 1.2 million barrels a day lower than in July 2006. Demand from China, India, most oil exporting states, and some developed countries keeps increasing so obviously a lot of poor countries are consuming a lot less oil than they were last year.

Hardly a week goes by now without a new report some underdeveloped country is running short of gasoline, electricity, or both. Factories are being shuttered and tens, or perhaps hundreds, of thousands of workers are being laid off. Realistically, these furloughs are likely to last for a very long time.


Oil Execs Push Doubling Of Fuel Efficiency - Serious Shortages Near On The Horizon

The world is fast approaching a point where energy demand will exceed supply and the United States needs a revolution in energy efficiency and renewable energy within the next 25 years. The country should enact restrictions on carbon emissions, go way beyond the Senate’s recent fuel economy standards to double the fuel efficiency of vehicles and take other dramatic steps.


Oil-shale funding promoted

Funding to develop oil shale should be increased to help meet a coming shortfall of petroleum, according to a major energy report released Wednesday.


National Petroleum Council stresses urgency in energy report

The U.S. should adopt a crash program to double automobile fuel efficiency, limit carbon emissions and push as hard as it can for bio-fuels and other energy sources over the next 25 years or risk serious shortages, says a study released Wednesday.


National Petroleum Council hides the hard truths about energy instead of facing them

“Instead of ‘facing the hard truths about energy,’ the NPC report hides them,” said Congressman Bartlett.

“Secretary Bodman asked the right questions, but the NPC draft doesn't directly answer any of them,” said Congressman Udall. “While they do have some ‘hard truths’ in their report, they are surrounded in a dense matrix of mumbo-jumbo and irrelevant reassurances about how large the resource endowment is.”


Florida Senator Pronounces Oil-Inventory Rider Dead

A spending rider that would require a seismic inventory of eastern Gulf of Mexico oil and gas reserves is headed for the junkyard, according to Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).


Japan quake hurt automakers, power co.

The mammoth earthquake that ravaged northern Japan this week did more than take lives and trigger radioactive leaks. It nailed some of the most important industries undergirding growth in the world's second-biggest economy.

Details of the economic fallout were still emerging days after Monday's 6.8-magnitude earthquake shook the Sea of Japan coast. But early repercussions stretched from Japan's top automakers to the country's biggest power company.


Eat a steak, warm the planet

A kilogram (2.2 pounds) of beef causes more greenhouse-gas and other pollution than driving for three hours while leaving all the lights on back home, according to a Japanese study.

ASPO-USA OIL CONFERENCE EARLY REGISTRATION ENDS AUG.1
Plus Call for Posters for Conference

SAVE $50.00 with the EARLY REGISTRATION FEE DISCOUNT for General Public for the ASPO-USA WORLD OIL CONFERENCE ON PEAK OIL in Houston Texas this fall.

The registration fee is scheduled to increase $50.00 for the general public on Aug. 1. The Registration Fee includes breakfast and lunch on Thursday and Friday and the two receptions.

The Association has obtained a $154.00 + tax per night room rate from the hotel.

Conference information http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa3/index.cfm

Direct to registration http://www.regonline.com/Checkin.asp?EventId=136392

Call for Posters” from ASPO-USA for Houston Conference

ASPO-USA is issuing a call for posters at the 2007 Houston World Oil Conference this fall. People selected to present posters will be able to register at the special rate of $150.00 including all meals and receptions.

Details http://www.aspo-usa.com/aspousa3/CallforPosters.cfm

Hello Ricko,

Thxs again for the ASPO info. I hope that all conference participants will individually shout out 'Peakoil' whenever their favorite 'Nectar of the Gods' beverage glass reaches half-empty -- I am trying my best to make this a new cultural tradition.

EDIT: Perhaps the welcoming ASPO co-hosts, Jim Baldauf & Steve Andrews, could encourage this personal toast in their introductory statements?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

When I heard about the ASPO-USA Oil Conference my knee-jerk reaction was that I wish I could go. Then I realized I have a friend in Houston, with whom I could stay for free. Wow.
How much would a train ticket cost?
Well, it was manageable. But the scheduling wasn't. It would take me two calendar days to get from Charlottesville VA to Houston by train.
Then I remembered I'd purchased the video DVDs of last year's conference in Boston for $75. What a deal!
No travel stress. A good seat. I could even munch popcorn if I wanted while watching the great speakers.

So I think I will stay at home again this year.

Plus, think of the CO2 I don't generate by not going! Kind-of like Amory Lovins negawatts.

So here's a thought: we really do have great teleconferencing and video-streaming technology these days. Why not put these technologies to work, and instead have a virtual conference. People could still be charged to participate, but the money would go to the technical back-plane enabling participation. Speakers would not have to travel from afar. Participants would not have to travel from afar. Participants' costs would probably be much lower. Speakers and participants would save time. We'd be generating much less CO2, not only by eliminating the travel to Houston (mostly by air, I imagine), but also by the reduced consumption of everything that goes into conducting such conferences. That consumption includes lots of oil-based products, including liquid fuel.

I imagine that this has occurred to ASPO.

I don't deny there are benefits to face-to-face meetings. But when are we going to change? Only when forced to? Maybe. Probably.

i plan on attending, how many of the TOD'ers plan on attending? would be nice to faces to names!

Hello Geewiz,

I cannot go, but I would sure like to reward Leanan for all her hard work on the Drumbeat by donating some funds so she could go. In return, she could provide daily ASPO updates [from her perspective] for those of us stuck at home. Any donation totals in excess of what is reasonably Conference-required [flight, hotel, food & drinks, etc]: Leanan gives to the charity of her choice. Prof. Goose--any way to get this done for our favorite Leanan?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

I will be speaking. Tentative time early on October 19th.

Likely to take Amtrak there.

Side discussions are a major reason to attend in person IMHO. Knowledgeable and articulate TODers can sway some industry folk that came out of curiosity.

Best Hopes for a breakthrough conference,

Alan

Regarding the above article on drilling off of Florida.

"Florida's senators do not want drilling closer to the coastline of their state. Critics of the provision in question fear it would be a precursor to further loosening eastern Gulf drilling bans. "

I wish someone would say " We want to save some oil for our children and grandchildren."

An honest inventory would be good information but opening up new areas for drilling so we can waste it by continuing business as usual seems criminal on a generational scale to me.

Living in Florida, I would like to hear Mr. Nelson say that also. I know it's just a matter of time before you can see rigs from Tampa, but I don't think a inventory at this time is a bad idea either.

neon9,

its very hard to see rigs producing more than 10 miles offshore, due to the horizon line, or wind turbines.

And, some of us actually think they're pretty. Offshore waters should be for the use of all the people, not just the yacht owners in the St. Petersburg harbor.
Bob Ebersole

Bob,
Well, if I had my choice, I'd rather see wind turbines...

As the oil supply depletes it'll only be the yacht owners who can afford it anymore. If they do drill off Florida the "common man" won't see a drop of it by the time those wells actually start producing.

I live in Florida also and think that the main reason that Floridians and some Florida politicians do not want offshore drilling is fear of an oil spill washing onto a beach. Florida is dependent on tourisim and bad press about an oil spill would hurt businesses wherever the oil might wash ashore, not to mention what it would do to marine life.

I agree with those that think that the US should do all possible to make the most of all oil (and all energy) prior to drilling in Florida waters where the possibility of spill could do serious damage to Floridas economy. I noticed that even the CEOs of large oil companies are calling for more oil efficency in autos, homes, businesses, etc. We need an administration that will put energy efficiency at the top of their agenda. Jimmy Carter realized the energy problems and attempted to take action but Americans were too foolish to pay heed...many Americans have very short memories. The current administration is too weakened by other matters, and too discredited by bad decisions to take effective measures to implement energy efficiency. Florida is already hurting as the number two state in mortgage foreclosures, we do not need an environmental disaster. One hurricane or ship hitting an offshore rig could be a nightmare on a nearby beach.

Oil and tar on beaches in Texas are a real drag. Folks down there seem to be used to it and all the hotels and condos pass out free "tar-off" moistened towelettes. Pretty gross. Florida is right to be cautious, but I agree that a survey of what is out there would be a good idea.

Odysseus,

You're right, oil and tar on the beach is a drag, but 99.9% is from natural oil seeps, not from shipping or production. One of the reasons that Texas was an early target for exploration was our oil seeps. Same in California-LaBrea tar pits, Iraq-the ancient Sumerians used pitch as a mortar-and many other areas of the world. If you want I could go on ad nauseum.
The Coast Guard regulations are extremely strict. A ship or rig can't even dump used cooking oil in the water. So while I understand your concern, its based on practices that were stopped 35 years ago.
Bob Ebersole

I wish someone would say " We want to save some oil for our children and grandchildren."

No kidding! I'd rather use up SA's oil now while things are easy, and have oil for us to use after SA refuses to sell it to the rest of the world due to their own supplies running out. We shouldn't use any more of our own oil until everybody else's has run out. Sure, it's selfish, but would you expect a person to be any other way?
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

You don't think most other producers are having the same thought?

The increasing occurrence of resource nationalisation tells you they are... with the exception of some countries who seem actually to believe in the concepts of globalisation and free markets rather than just paying lip service to them

Let the hoarding begin.

And now they're even hoarding uranium. The nerve!

I wish someone would say " We want to save some oil for our children and grandchildren."

There's no need to.

If the pace at which we use up the stuff teaches you one thing, it's that we possess the unbridled optimism that our children and grandchildren will be a hell of a lot smarter than we are. If we weren't confident in that, we wouldn't be doing this, right?

And after all, what's wrong with optimism? It's morning in America (and Iraq, and Darfur, and Zimbabwe). You may be too daft and thick and stupid to do anything but squander it as fast as you can, but that seed you've spawn will move seamlessly into cold fusion, free-point and sub-atomic refuting of thermodynamics.

Plus, if for some unforeseen reason they wouldn't turn out to be that gifted, if they're more like you, let's say, they'd probably only use the remaining oil to blow each other to Kingdom Come.

Better use it now, just in case. It's win-win-win.

Don't forget morning in Somolia...

As for your win-win-win scenario, you could call it the w-trifecta. Hope for the future. Optimism of the present. Fear of the past.

I'd rather see solar on roofs, wind turbines offshore and reasonable drilling. We need it all.

The Gulf is gas prone in the continental shelf areas east of the Mississippi. One big problem is gas pipelines. Florida has practicaly no sales pipelines in the central and southern regions because of no production. Doesn't Tampa already import LNG? Bob Ebersole

I would support knowing what is down there. I might not want the Oil drilled out right now, but I would certainlly want to know how much we might have there as a cushion.

We are depending on Oil from other coutries that we should not depend on, this would be our oil, not anything we would have to pay through the teeth for. Cost of extraction and if we had too, make it a state run affair. But in the end we would want to have this cushion for at least the chemicals we would get out of it.

come a future of climate change, most of Florida will be salt water marsh lands and the people will be living a bit further north in the hills of Georgia.

The NPC report gives a lot of support for the peak oil point of view. If you'll look at Stuart's graphs in the post yesterday, its pretty clear that without a massive increase in production from the Middle East we will be experiencing shortages within 2 years. They are putting their faith in discovering a couple of more Saudi Arabias and massive amounts of "unconventional" oil to keep growth in energy supplies, and new technology.
Both of these are unlikely, as are the reserves claimed by OPEC, as we all know from numerous keyposts and threads.

The NPC also gives respect to the concept of peak oil by using ASPO's projections as their low production sceneario, and giving an honest definition of the concept. See Gail the Actuary's post in the same thread.

Their recomendations include conservation, not a priority of the big oil companies in the old economy.

The short summary is, we've won respect and acknowledgement of our point of view, which is the most prudent view of the world oil supply. The new question is how to exploit our new advantage so that the world immediately embarks on mitigation to avoid the dire consequences projected by many folks.

I think we need a list of points of agreement so we can all work together with government and industry to mitigate the consequences. My short list:

Prices are going up due to increased production costs and geopolitical shortages like the ELM.

We all want national security and economic security, and energy supplies are key to these goals.

Everyone wants to have a clean world not threatened by global warming.

Not wasting energy-conservation-is key to society making adjustments.
Bob Ebersole

Looks like pretty soon we know who gets the ridicule on KSA production. I'm still feeling it isn't going to be Stuart.

Bob,

I disagree with most of your post above. I don't think peak oil advocates gained any respect from the NPC report.

But, to me the real issue is your belief that there is common ground that can be plowed. In a way you are saying, "Can't we all just get along?" I think not. The issue is far deeper than just conservation. In essence, what is needed is a sea change of paradigms to a sustainable society. This drastic a change undercuts the entire power structure including goverance, finance, moral/religious belief, goods/services, etc.

Anyone reading Crossing the Rubicon by Ruppert or the Catherine Fitts essay on Dillion Reed (linked at the bottom of Chimp's LATOC link yesterday) can only come to the conclusion that there are powerful forces hidden from public view who are going to do what's good for themselves regardless of how it impacts the general population.

Todd

Todd,

I think this is a huge improvement over the ridicule and disparagement from them in the past. While i think their figures are pie-in-the-sky, the fact that they've given serious attention to ASPO is great progress.

I'm not saying we should all just get along. Its my belief that people change their minds slowly, and if we antagonize them we are risking setting up such an ego-based resistance that we'll slow the process down. The world can't stand the 8 or 10 year resistance funded by them that global warming caused.

We've got to leave them an out so that they can change their minds. I think WT is right about his Export Land Model, and we'll see the results quickly. Letting the cornucopians blame "above ground factors" rather than peak oil allows them a gracious exit from an untenable position.

Todd, I agree with you 100% that we need a paradigm shift to a sustainable economy. But I'd rather get the goals of shifting to alternative fuels and conservation accomplished as quickly as possible. If it requires me to get in bed with a few devils, well, I'm very corrupt and a slut.

We've got to leave them an out so that they can change their minds.

No. No. A thousand times NO. We need to bury them as quickly as possible. They have lied long enough. They have wasted precious time. Their mantra is BAU.

You think they have irreplaceable expertise? Meh!

Hello Will,

Funny that you mention burial:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4973097.html
-----------------------------
Burial in Mexico proves expensive for many immigrants
-----------------------------

This won't last long postPeak. Recall that many Zimbabweans give a fake name when they check a dying family member into a hospital so they can't be charged for burial expenses.

I think graveyards will be plundered before landfills because a sturdy coffin relined with rags and old newspapers is a very dry and well-insulated shelter to keep from freezing to death. Strap some bicycle wheels to the frame and you have an effective camping trailer to pull behind your bicycle.

The 'rich' will have new, non-used, lightweight carbon fiber coffins with integral solar panels, rifle storage, and water filtration to pull behind their bug-out electric bike.

EDIT: Or further out the postPeak timeline: the rich will have horses or draft animals up north, camels for down south to pull their luxury sleeping quarters.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

The truth will set you free. :-)

I've been observing this and many other sites and literature on this topic for some time as part of my consulting practice in the plastics industry. I have spoken now several times on this topic as well as economic trends to plastic industry groups. The combination of energy, other economic growth headwinds, demographics, and now climate issues add up to a not very pleasant looking future for domestic plastic companies. I haven't had anything really to add to the apparently well-researched material until now.

However, I would add one item to Bob's list. My item is to end the hangup on whether the supply shortage looks like a peak or a plateau. This is distracting from what is largely an agreement in principle that there is a probably problem of demand greatly exceeding supply.

I note comments I made over a year ago to Kjell Aleklett at ASPO regarding the December 2005 congressional hearing on Peak Oil. I provided him the copy of the transcript that is on the ASPO site.

Late in the hearing, one of the congressman, Mr. Allen, asked CERA's rep at the hearing essentially whether there was a problem or not. The CERA guy, Mr. Esser, then acknowledged fully to the congressman that there was a problem of demand exceeding supply only that the graphical form of the shortage wouldn't be a peak but the oft-stated "undulating plateau". Presumably, this plateau is somewhat later and the supply/demand gap develops more slowly but the structural problem is still there and acknowledged by Mr. Esser. This exchange seems to have gone unnoticed but yet points in a potentially positive direction.

My observation to Kjell then, and to you now, is that I think it would be better to focus on the structural principle of impending shortage and limited time with which to address it than to continue the hangup over the shape and exact timing (which no one agrees on anyway). This would arguably help policy makers, who are no doubt somewhat confused by these details in the debate, to come to grips with the broad agreement that there is a problem and market forces won't solve it.

Here is the relevant exchange from pages 82-83 of the transcript. The transcript of words from an active conversation where grammar and wording aren't 100% perfect and requires some minor interpreting but I think I'm reading it correctly. Mr. Esser continues after my cut-off with an amplification of his answer that supports CERA's view that it's later and less severe but that there is still a problem. I presume the transcript is still on the ASPO site to see for yourself. If not, I can provide it.

MR. ALLEN. Thank you, Ms. Chairman.
And thank you all for being here.
I do have a different view here. I mean, I think that the great challenge we face is not a date. When King Hubbert made his predictions in the 1950’s, he was regarded as a crank in the industry but he turned out to be right on the money in terms of when peak oil would occur in the United States. There are all sorts of people making projections today and most of them are going to be wrong either one side or the other but it is going to happen.
And I thought, Mr. Esser, just a quick question for you. It seems to me that the issue, I do not think many of you have talked explicitly much about price. We do lots of wishful thinking up here in this Congress these days but you have not talked so much about price. If it is an undulating plateau or a peak with a sharper decline, who cares? It seems to me the problem is that when the moment comes and I am not saying it is going to be one moment, it is going to happen, you know, relatively gradually over a period of years. It will be too late to take the kind of
action that we need to take today. That is the problem. And Mr. Esser, if you could talk a little bit about the undulating plateau, I read your remarks and you said our outlook shows no evidence of a peak in worldwide oil production before 2020 and you said, you know, maybe that is the earliest date you are willing to countenance but that is a scary date because in 15 years knowing the way this Congress operates, there is no possibility. We did not do a balanced Energy Bill in my--from my point if view. We need to act appropriately in relation to the risk not something that we may think is balanced but appropriately in relation to the risk. And the risk I think correct me if I am wrong is a dramatic rise in price that fundamentally changes our economy and makes the United States as the most dependent on oil at great risk in our competition and with other countries and that is what worries me.
MR. ESSER. It does that with the undulating plateau because once you are at this flat area and demand is still rising, that is your problem.
MR. ALLEN. So you did not mean for us to take comfort in the thought that it might be an undulating plateau--
MR. ESSER. That is right. It is certainly not. It is just that we do not see an isolated peak with a pretty sharp drop off after that.

My apologies if I incorrect, politically or otherwise.

This would arguably help policy makers, who are no doubt somewhat confused by these details in the debate, to come to grips with the broad agreement that there is a problem and market forces won't solve it.

Au contraire, the Market does offer a solution. Just not a nice one.

We can choose to do the easy thing, or we can choose to do the right thing.

Do the CERA guys ever discuss how much the price of oil will 'undulate' when we reach the undulating plateau?

Supply may undulate, but prices will stair-step upwards.

Glad to see that even CERA is now on record as admitting that prices are going to soar. Can we now start discussing what we are going to do about that fact?

dehoffsp

Ace's post this morning kind of looks like CERA's undulating plateau for the first 5 year