 | Facing the Hard Truths about Energy - the NPC report, commented | The Oil Drum | The Energy Return on Time |  |
DrumBeat: July 25, 2007
Posted by Leanan on July 25, 2007 - 9:01am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: pakistan electricity [list all tags]
Oil futures jump $2 after report
Oil futures jumped more than $2 a barrel Wednesday, pulling gasoline futures higher after the government reported that inventories of crude oil at a key Oklahoma terminal fell last week. Gas prices at the pump, meanwhile, extended their decline.
Crews clean up after oil geyser near Vancouver
Experts assessed on Wednesday the environmental damage from a ruptured pipeline that showered a residential area near Vancouver with crude oil, some of which seeped into a Pacific Ocean inlet.Crews attempted to mop up pools of thick black oil left by the accident on Tuesday in Burnaby, British Columbia, when a road construction crew struck the line used to load crude from Alberta on to ships in Vancouver's port.
Despite constant warnings over the past decade about climate change and peak oil, nine in ten Americans still commute via car. Even relatively transit-friendly Oakland is only slightly better, with 72% of residents driving to work daily. With a new proposal aimed at introducing an innovative mode of transit, AC Transit is hoping to make a dent in that number.For the past few decades, light rail has been the vogue for American cities wanting to improve their transit options. However, prohibitive capital costs and high operation expenditures have prevented it from getting off the ground in any serious manner in most US cities. While we were busy chasing trains, Latin America was experimenting with a cheaper method of high capacity public transport – bus rapid transit, or BRT.
British professor shot in Nigeria
Gunmen wounded a British professor and a security guard in oil-rich southern Nigeria on Wednesday, a day after a Nigerian oil worker was killed.
Alberta building unions threaten oilsands strike
Five Alberta construction unions have voted in favor of their first strike in a quarter of a century as they seek higher wages and improved working conditions at a slate of multibillion-dollar oilsands projects.
Investors handed a no-lose proposal
How hungry are investors for profits? Yesterday's merger between Transocean Inc. and GlobalSantaFe Corp., two offshore oil and gas drilling companies, shows that investors are ravenous.The deal does not give shareholders on either side a premium for their shares. Instead, it monetizes part of the two companies' back orders of drilling contracts to 2015 -- worth a combined US$33-billion--and has handed both shareholder groups nearly half of that value in the form of a special dividend.
Clean Coal: How to Make Rock into Biofuel
Despite a Senate battle leaving out important funding for liquid coal research in the new energy bill, gasification remains an important engineering process to our green future.
Economic Theory and OPEC - Part 2
Murray Duffin notes that “the supply of light sweet crude has surely peaked already, and about 70% of world refining capacity is geared to light sweet crude (2007). He adds that upgrading refineries to handle heavier crude is going to be an expensive proposition, but I suspect that this is exactly the sort of challenge that the oil producers of the Middle East are in position to accept.
Quake cleanup delays reactor core checks
Tokyo Electric Power Co. may not be able to begin reactor core checks of its quake-hit nuclear power plant in Niigata Prefecture until September because it needs to clean up contamination inside one of the seven reactors and remedy other safety woes, company officials said Monday.
Japan says nuclear closure could affect CO2 target
Japan's plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions under the Kyoto Protocol could be affected if an earthquake-hit nuclear power plant is closed for a long time, the country's trade minister said on Tuesday.
Attacks on Mexico pipelines show extensive knowledge of energy infrastructure, officials say
Saboteurs who blew up natural gas pipelines that shut down one of Mexico’s main industrial regions this month also crippled a crude oil pipeline, U.S. officials said Tuesday.The operation indicated extensive knowledge of Mexico’s energy infrastructure, the officials said.
Not only were oil and natural gas pipelines made targets, but also the bombers knew enough about energy installations to destroy the shutoff valves along several pipelines that allow for the wide national distribution of oil and natural gas.
“These are massive steel valves,” a U.S. official familiar with the bombing investigation told McClatchy Newspapers. “These are major, very expensive shutoff valves that control the flow of all this petroleum (and natural gas). This wasn’t a round tube in the middle of nowhere.”
The bombers knew which side of the valve they should strike, ensuring that crude oil did not flow to a nearby refinery and that natural gas did not flow to foreign and Mexican manufacturers in the central Bajio region, the official said.
Lester R. Brown: Water Tables Falling and Rivers Running Dry
As the world’s demand for water has tripled over the last half-century and as the demand for hydroelectric power has grown even faster, dams and diversions of river water have drained many rivers dry. As water tables fall, the springs that feed rivers go dry, reducing river flows.Scores of countries are overpumping aquifers as they struggle to satisfy their growing water needs, including each of the big three grain producers—China, India, and the United States. More than half the world’s people live in countries where water tables are falling.
Renewable energy projects will devour huge amounts of land, warns researcher
Large-scale renewable energy projects will cause widespread environmental damage by industrialising vast swaths of countryside, a leading scientist claims today. The warning follows an analysis of the amount of land that renewable energy resources, including wind farms, biofuel crops and photovoltaic solar cells, require to produce substantial amounts of power.
Dramatic increase in biofuel consumption
Consumption of biofuels in the EU rose dramatically during 2006, new figures reveal.Biofuel use in the EU went up by 78 per cent from 2005 to 2006 - from 3 million to 5.38 million tonnes - according to a report published by EurObserv’ER, an industry consortium for renewable energy.
Manpower crisis cripples oil industry
The shortage of manpower felt throughout all sectors of the oil industry is not just a Middle East problem, it's worldwide.
Chinese investments have come under attack in recent months, and a general wariness about closer ties with Beijing has become part of the political dialogue in most African countries where China does business. Days after the June meeting in Somalia, a Chinese mining executive was kidnapped in Niger. The incident followed the killing of nine Chinese workers in Ethiopia, near the border with Somalia, in April. Chinese workers have also come under attack in Nigeria in recent months.
China consumes record amount of oil in first half
China's consumption of apparent crude oil and refined oil products hit a record high in the first half of the year, totaling 173.03 million tons and 106.112 million tons respectively, up 6.8 percent and 9.6 percent on the previous year.
UK: Passengers to pay billions more as rail capacity expands
Farepayers will nearly double their contribution to the cost of running the railways by the middle of the next decade, the government said yesterday.
Pakistan heading towards serious gas crisis: study
Pakistan is heading fast towards serious gas crisis as its demand and supply ratio is not showing equilibrium beyond 2007, Hagler Bailly, Pakistan, claims in a feasibility study conducted in 2006, for Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas line project.
Interview with Rafael Ramírez, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, Pdvsa CEO
There is indeed operational emergency and the board of directors declared it. If we do not speed up the bidding processes, production plans are at risk. This means chaos.
We're all big energy wasters, says Lunn
As energy ministers from the U.S., Mexico and Canada met in Victoria yesterday to sign an agreement to co-operate on energy science and technology, Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn pointed at private homes as pools of energy waste.Appliances such as microwaves and televisions, left on 24 hours a day, are one of Canada's largest untapped sources of energy, Lunn said.
Energy divides House Democrats
The masters of the House have been wrestling among themselves over what to include in an energy bill, with large blocs of Democrats at odds over issues such as fuel mileage standards, oil and gas drilling and tax provisions targeting the energy companies.
One cable collapses, plunging Barcelona into total darkness
The collapse of a single power cable has brought chaos to Barcelona, with thousands of residents in one of Europe's most sophisticated cities struggling without power for a second day yesterday.Spain's second city which is famed for its stylish urban efficiency, scrambled for candles, emergency generators and manual typewriters, while the electricity company, Fecsa-Endesa, warned that supply might not be fully restored "for days or weeks".
Soaring Prices for Salvaged Metals Spark a Wave of Property Crimes
On several occasions this month, thieves dug up hundreds of feet of underground copper cable used to illuminate ball fields in Anne Arundel County, forcing the organizers of a youth baseball tournament to reschedule a half-dozen games. "We got hit three times in eight days," said Ray Fox, president of the Linthicum Ferndale Youth Athletic Association.
Theft sparks Nigeria kerosene shortage, tanker jam
Constant theft of kerosene from a pipeline near Nigeria's largest city Lagos has caused a shortage across the country and long tanker queues offshore, the head of the national oil company said on Tuesday.Thieves regularly bore into the fuel pipeline near the country's main import terminal at Atlas Cove, siphoning fuel into jerry cans for sale on a thriving black market.
ConocoPhillips Profit Plunges on Exit From Venezuela
ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil producer, said second-quarter profit tumbled 94 percent after Hugo Chavez's government seized the company's assets in Venezuela.
Fed's Poole says energy costs not hurting US economy
Oil prices may be rising as fast as they did in the 1970s, but energy in the United States remains relatively inexpensive and is not damaging the US economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said Tuesday evening.
The Upside of Down, by Thomas Homer-Dixon
The Upside of Down isn't an environmental book, exactly, though it does deal with environmental and energy issues. While it shares some themes with more explicitly environmental books (like Jared Diamond's Collapse), the core of the book is more political and sociological. Homer-Dixon is asking why societies collapse - what are the pressures our society faces today, and what, if any, are the positive results from the kind of collapse he's talking about?
A recent report from the United Nations predicts that as much as one-quarter of the world's electricity could come from renewable sources by 2030.The U.N. noted that more than $100 billion has been invested worldwide into wind, solar and biofuels in 2006 -- nearly double what was spent in the preceding year. While energy from renewable sources accounts for only 2 percent of the world's total, the U.N. found that nearly 20 percent of all power plants under construction are in this sector.
The industry is gearing up to build its first new plants in decades. But are we comfortable with that? A road trip into America's nuclear future.
Russia delays Iran nuclear plant to 2008
Russia has no chance of finishing Iran's first nuclear power station before autumn 2008, a year behind schedule, a Russian subcontractor helping to build the plant told RIA news agency on Wednesday. Russia has used the Bushehr nuclear plant as a lever in relations with Tehran which chilled this year after a row over missed payments for building the plant in southwest Iran.
The Hidden Agenda behind the Bush Administration's Bio-Fuel Plan
In the mid-1970’s Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, a protégé of the Rockefeller family and of its institutions stated, "Control the oil and you control entire nations; control the food and you control the people." The same cast of characters who brought the world the Iraq war, the global scramble to control oil, who brought us patented genetically manipulated seeds and now Terminator suicide seeds, and who cry about the "problem of world over-population," are now backing conversion of global grain production to burn as fuel at a time of declining global grain reserves.
Saudi Arabia 'to keep dollar peg until 2010'
Saudi Arabia will ride out the latest spell of dollar weakness and maintain the riyal's exchange rate against the US currency at least until 2010, Jadwa Investment said in a research note....Markets have been betting delays to a regional monetary union project and the dollar's decline to record lows against the euro this month would tempt some Gulf states to change dollar-pegged exchange rates, especially after Kuwait broke ranks and adopted a currency basket in May.
Ed Koch: Is There a Viable Solution to Our OPEC Dilemma?
Every presidential candidate, Republican or Democrat, should now be asked - "If you become President, will you direct the Department of Justice to sue OPEC?"
Japan crude imports to rise on extra demand
Japan's crude oil demand is expected to rise on year in August as refiners are likely to step up imports to meet extra demand from utilities for sweet crude and low-sulfur C-fuel oil after Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501.TO) shut its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant last week following a strong earthquake.
Oil firms find reserves elusive
This decade's high crude prices mean there's plenty of incentive for Daniel O'Byrne, chief operating officer of Calgary-based Provident Energy Trust, to keep finding oil and gas for his company to produce. But he faces a problem - there's less and less reserves to locate, and the costs of developing them haven't stopped going up.
The third trillion barrels of oil: the three steps to finding them
Today the mind-set of assumed surplus appears to be changing rapidly. People (and governments in particular) are increasingly concerned with where the next barrel is coming from. The prevailing mind set is becoming one of anxiety and insecurity. And not just about the quantity of supply – but who controls it. Concern about climate change adds to our fears. Energy has risen to the very top of political agendas around the world, and it's likely to stay there for the foreseeable future. That is the context in which we are looking for the third trillion.So where do we look for the third trillion?
Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is reshuffling senior officials, at the same time as his energy minister is in Moscow for talks over an unpaid US$500m gas debt. The two issues are related, for cheap energy and a strong “power vertical” have been the bedrock of Mr Lukashenka’s rule. With the era of cheap Russian energy coming to a close this year, it is all the more important for Mr Lukashenka to be sure he has a firm political grip on the country.
What to Say to Those Who Think Nuclear Power Will Save Us
As the energy crisis heats up, you may need a refresher on the evidence against nukes.
The Western Governor's Association Energy Efficient Buildings Workshop
Energy Efficiency can and will do more to meet the challenges of Global Warming, Peak Oil, Environmental Degradation, and Energy Security than any other form of Alternative Energy.
More of NASA's James Hansen on Old King Coal
One other reality, albeit not physics, must be recognized: we can not (successfully) demand that countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia not mine and sell their oil. And it hardly matters how fast they mine it. We can conserve energy and oil to beat the band, but the readily available oil is still going to be mined in coming decades, not 500 years from now. So, there is just one way we can keep CO2 within, or at least within hailing distance of, the dangerous limit. Indeed, it is a sensible, doable proposition: we must agree to use coal only in (truly) clean-coal power plants at which the CO2 is captured and sequestered. By phasing out existing old-fashioned dirty coal plants over the next few decades, we can keep CO2 below 450 ppm
Petrologistics: OPEC oil output to rise in July
OPEC oil output is expected to rise this month due to higher supply from members including Nigeria, Iraq and Angola, a consultant said on Wednesday.OPEC's 10 members subject to output limits, all except Iraq and Angola, are expected to pump 26.9 million bpd, up from 26.8 million bpd in June, said Conrad Gerber, head of Petrologistics, which tracks tanker shipments.
The estimate, while showing rising supply in some OPEC countries, indicates top world exporter Saudi Arabia is keeping a cap on output in spite of a jump in oil prices towards a record high above $78 a barrel.
Iran, Analysts Dampen Hints of Imminent OPEC Move
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries doesn't yet see any indication of heightened demand for its oil, a top Iranian oil official said Tuesday, with other officials and analysts pouring cold water on the prospect of an impending change in the producer group's current "do-nothing" policy.
United States Oil Reserves: Four Scenarios
Having evaluated current data on reserves, consumption and production of oil in the United States, I have compiled four charts which illustrate various scenarios of what might occur over the next ten to twenty years. The data sources for this brief study are the United States Department of Energy and the CIA World Factbook. *All chart numbers reflect billions of barrels.
Pemex, BP Agree to Collaborate on Technology
Mexican state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos said Tuesday that it signed three technology-sharing agreements with the U.K.'s BP PLC (BP), including one for deepwater exploration.The five-year agreements, which are technical in nature and don't involve funding, also include a general collaboration accord and studying the potential of injecting air instead of nitrogen in fractured deposits to improve extraction.
Oil firms get U.S. letters in bribery probe: report
Eleven oil and oil-services companies have received letters from the U.S. government seeking information in a probe into suspected bribery of customs agents in Nigeria and elsewhere, according to a Dow Jones report on the Wall Street Journal's Web site on Tuesday.
Toyota plug-in hybrid to hit the roads
Toyota Motor Corp. said Wednesday that it had taken a step closer to launching its plug-in hybrid vehicle, which has become the first of its kind to get a roadworthiness certificate in Japan.
For the last 147 years, ever since Edwin Drake drilled his first well in Pennsylvania, we've enjoyed cheap and easy-to-get oil. Unfortunately, those days have come to an end.When will the dam break?
Oil Junkies for Jesus vs the Oil Crisis
US involvement in Iraq is complicated by weird theology. Fundamentalist Christians insist upon an unconditional pro-Israeli policy no matter what! Israel is God's chosen nation. To oppose Israel, they say, is to damn our nation to hell. Another complication is our nation's symbiotic relationship with oil producing "infidels". GOP faithful believe that middle east oil is ours to plunder. Oil Junkies for Jesus openly boast of stealing Iraqi oil. For them, waging war for oil is not a war crime, it's a crusade, it's not an atrocity its a commandment. SUV's are not abominable energy hogs, they are God's own chariot. While we fear the mother of all energy crunches, Hubbert's Peak, oil junkies for Jesus look forward to just flying away from it all.
Are Britain's Floods Linked to Global Warming?
Though Britain is known for its typically rainy climate, the torrential downpours of the past month have been anything but typical. The relentless rains have brought central Britain the worst floods it's seen in half a century, and some wonder whether global warming might be to blame.
Study: Rising temperatures pose danger
Rising temperatures in eastern Canada are making it more dangerous for the native Inuit population in the province of Quebec to travel and hunt by snowmobile, and a new study recommends that they return to using the traditional dogsled.
Drip, drip of global warming spells change in northern Russia
It is summer in this reindeer-herding village in northern Russia and with not an iceberg in sight, residents are acquiring a taste for bathing in the local river."We used to have ice on the river all year round. The warming process is speeding up," said the worried head of the state-controlled reindeer company at Kanchalan, Arkady Makhushkin.
'Dead Dollar Bounce...Tumbling Dollar Good For US Economy.'
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IG26Dj01.html
'And of course, one of the new rationales to justify the dollar trend of late is that a tumbling dollar is "really very good" for the US economy. Yeah, sure it is! Can you imagine how much better off the average US citizen would be if the dollar fell to say 40 on the US$ index? Heck, in a world where Mr US Consumer imports more goods than he ever did in the past, imagine if his global purchasing power was cut in half. That would be just dandy wouldn't it! Where do they come up with this nonsense?
Stocks got whacked on Tuesday as the US dollar index pierced the 80 level, as you can see in the first chart. SPU is now testing its uptrend line going back to mid February. Maybe Mr Market isn't as sanguine on a banana republic-like paper as some economists' seem to be.
There comes a point, in a currency crisis, when a country can face a "triple-whammy" threat. That's defined as a run on all asset classes - currency, stocks and bonds. That's not a pretty picture. We're not implying we are anywhere near there yet - or that we will get there. We are only making the point that the currency is not simply an input item in some econometric model.
A currency is ultimately a reflection of confidence in a country's prospects and status in the world financial system, especially in the so-called "free-floating" world. If a falling currency is a magic bullet for improving one's financial picture, then Zimbabwe should soon leap to its rightful place among the world's global economic elite.'
snip...
Dude, you can't compare the US to zimbabwe c'mon. And yes a weaker dollar is better for the US manufacturing sector. A weaker dollar forces Americans to buy less stuff from overseas therefore reducing the trade deficit as well.
TAD, I am not comparing anything. If you had read the link you would see that everything in my post is quoted from Jack Crooks site. Perhaps you saw the recent experiment where a lady attempted to feed and clothe her family with goods made 'not in China'...she found out that it couldnt be done. So where are Americans to find stuff that is not from overseas? Perhaps Americans can starve and shiver while manufacturing in the US restarts?
BTW, I am not a dude or dudette. Thanks.
As for clothing, feeding, etc. without products made in China - not that hard in Germany, even if you throw in that everything has to be made within some arbitrary boundary - 100 miles, 500 miles, etc. And most of what you will be purchasing as food can be organic - no problem at all, as long as you don't want things like bananas or out of season produce.
It will, however, cost a fair bit.
Expat, ...snip...'Not that hard in Germany'?...snip...
Well, that is just fine. Americans can stop buying products made in China and purchase even more expensive items made in Germany? Perhaps you didnt read the original post? The topic is the falling dollar, not just against Chinese currency but aginst the Euro as well.
River, you make a good point. Try and buy American made clothing and see what you come up with (socks, sweats, and maybe some specialty items like bicycle clothing). Same goes for a lot of hardware, tools, household items. Even food (China owns 80% of the vitamin C market, for instance).
What some fail to see is that once a "skill set" is lost through job-outsourcing, it is that much harder to re-establish an industry. Some will no doubt try and point out that most manufacturing jobs these days don't require a big skill-set. To that I say: When was the last time you saw a job posting that said "No experience required?" Even relatively low-skilled workers have to have some familiarity with computers and machinery. Then, you've got your higher skilled workers -- machinists, woodworkers, etc. Tell me that you can teach those skills to someone in 30 days.
Nope. America is currently (and seemingly gleefully) hanging itself by the throat. When all is said and done, our entire economy will consist of people delivering pizzas to one another -- on bicycles, of course.
I've got to disagree with this. I believe that as outsourcing and importing become less economical we will see skill sets in the US change to accomodate the needs (needs) of the population here in the US.
I believe we're going to see manufacturing, salvage, textiles, food production, etc come back to some degree, and hopefully soon while there are still folks around who can teach these things to the younger generation.
People won't be employed in the service industry much longer.
Tom A-B
"When all is said and done, our entire economy will consist of people delivering pizzas to one another -- on bicycles, of course."
Is that a step up or down from selling ourselves houses with borrowed Chinese Money, which is the current economic model?
Salvage for sure. That will be a big one. I don't know if the woman who tried to avoid buying goods made in China thought about secondhand and thrift stores...If I need anything that is where I go first. However, once imported goods become harder to get, or people can't afford them, secondhand shopping will likely become more expensive or dry up altogether. How about salvage from landfills? Dumpster diving? AG
That's certainly where I see the future going. I plan to be in a business that relies on resurrecting old stuff in new forms when the economy changes.
For example, tools made from spring steel found on old vehicles. Metalworking will be a crucial skill, as will woodworking (tools usually have handles). As I've said before, the downslope doesn't have to be gloom and doom. I think this kind of work, while unprofitable now, could be enjoyable and lucrative in the post-peak era.
Tom A-B
I agree. I think a solar powered forge would be ideal. One idea I saw for this was using old TV satellite dishes (the large ones) and coating it with reflective mylar. Here in Colorado where the sun is intense anyway this would be a great tool to help recycle and reform a lot of discarded materials. I could even imagine such a setup to melt down polyethylene and PETG bottles and reform into other shapes and building materials.
i think your mistaken. mythbusters made what you call a solar forge and it was barely able to light wood on fire, due to the way the parabola is shaped the hottest spot in it would be too close to the object to allow more then one to focus on the same spot without one shading the other from the sun.
leaving this alone it still would not generate enough heat for long enough to even soften iron let alone steel for blacksmithing. it /might/ be enough to soften decorative metals such as silver and gold.
I didn't see this episode and I can't tell from your description, but I don't think it sounds like they built it correctly. Putting mylar inside a dish in its original shape, which is what it sounds like they did from your description is not the way they are built.
You don't need a dish to do this, a square box would work I hear.
The parabola is made by use of a suction pump. The mylar is stretched across the frame and a seal is made. A small suction pump is used to draw the mylar back into the frame. You have to work out distances etc. But this is supposed to make a small point for a tiny hot beam. I found a website in Africa that has the design and comments by a builder who gives away the idea and plans.
Sounds like myth busters didn't get the full scoop,.. so to speak/
How did they build their unit.
"you can't make a foul ball fair by moving the foul line" Roger Maris.
I had read about the mylar vacuum parabola and the satellite dish on another blog/energy site. I confess that I didn't checked it out or actually think of the power density issue.
Many ideas to tinker with once we have more time on our hands. Old fashioned charcoal forges should work fine too.
This works pretty good:
http://www.technologystudent.com/energy1/solar4.htm
To carbonize the steel you still want to add carbon to the mix. For plastic you don't need too much, but how useful is plastic if it breaks quickly?
Also to get a solar powered forge you would probably need a Fresnel lens 100mx100m (you would end up being able to focus ~2,000,000W, or 2 MW of heat flux onto 1 sq m at high noon.) excluding heat losses and transmission losses through the lens.
A projection-tv-sized Fresnel lens will melt a penny, according to unofficial testing in the parking lot at Science Surplus.
Melting points (deg C):
I've only seen a few Mythbusters and haven't been impressed. A 8.5 x 11 in. Fresnel lens will cause wood to burst into flame with an audible (if tiny) pop.
If the forge isn't hot enough, use multiple lenses and mirrors. Be sure to check out Random Destructive Acts via Focussed Solar Radiation.
Probably still cheaper to ship the spring steel to China for rework on an updated clipper ship. Like laundry back in the gold rush days.
Or better yet, exporting the springs to pay off your indenture/mortgage.
Seriously, I think economies of scale will still be in play. Large factories of unskilled labor will work with supervision and lots of jigs. As always, skilled craftsmen doing one-offs will be supplanted by semi-skilled foremen, jigs, and hordes of unskilled workers. Capital always wins.
It is certainly possible to train Americans to do these jobs in about as much time as it took 50 years ago.
The real reason for this is that the companies don't want to bother and when they can't get "qualified candidates" this is the excuse used to shut down the factory and send it to China, a decision made ahead of time.
In China the people aren't born with magic machining skills either---they learn them on the job, like always.
The point being that they're given an entry-level job to learn them on.
The other point is that the 0.1% class in the USA has its future geared much more strongly with increasing prosperity in China over increasing or maintaining prosperity in the USA.
There is no actual shortage of labor and with a little bit of traning and education there could be plenty of people in the USA able to do just about any job. But not at 20 cents an hour.
MB: Haven't you heard? All problems will be solved when the average American wage is 20 cents an hour. Just ask the AntiDoomer (or any MSM mouthpiece). The important thing is to keep major banks loaning millions of dollars (unsecured) to their cronies in the "hedge" fund biz to play with (usually very poorly). Then they can be bailed out by the same "government" that figures 20 cents an hour is a fair wage.
i'll take it in stride, but if inflation is above the rate of wage growth, soon we will be back at 20c/hr real wages.
There is a thing happening here in America that is like a tumbling house of cards in motion. We are seeing it in slow motion and making cutting remarks about which card will fall and land flat on the table next.
I work with people who are more than happy to get a low paying Hamburger joint job, because yesterday they were sleeping under a bridge and getting handouts for food everyday.
I have two such people living in my house right now, in my room. They fell through the cracks of our Glorious Service Economy. Chris, got hit by a drunk driver and is still trying to figure out if he will be able to keep his legs. If he had had insurance at the time of the accident and could have stayed in a hospital or nursing home for 4 to 6 months, his legs would have healed just fine and he'd be back on the roofs laying tiles. But the Drunk was un-insured and he had not worked at a job long enough to get insurance, even though he was making over 100 dollars a day at the job.
We are basically creating some of our own problems.
One of my platforms as someone asked a while back, is a form of socailized medicine. We need it, we should be able to have it, and we are the only country in the G-8 that doesn't. Freedoms should not mean free to die like a dog in the street. We have better PET laws than we have human laws in some places.
The problem is I don't see enough changes taking place in the next 10 years.
I see companies failing and then our economy failing to a point where we literally have demand destruction and don't need 20 million barrels a day anymore.
When will the credit fall out really hit, a Long time before the Next president takes office, but maybe things will hang on for just a while longer and more people will be in the soup lines at the StewPot on 9th and Cumberland in Little Rock Next year. I'll be the guy with the big wooden walking stick with sand colored yarn attached to it, Just ask for Charles, folks know me.
sorry to hear your malody, hope all turns out well!
When I first came to America I was shocked by how uncaring the society was... the homelessness situation was really shocking... seeing all the poor and disabled turfed out to beg with humiliating signs of how god blesses those that donate them some spare change... disgusting...
i still think that the society functions in a permanent state of denial about so much (including for instance its foundation of institutionalised genocide) but the homelessness problem just lays bare the myth of a booming economy in which a rising tide lifts all boats... unless in that metaphor some people are not so much boats as limpets
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
But this is getting pretty close to what we really need to be talking about. If the present levels of consumption are unsustainable, and if sustainability can only be achieved at a much lower level of consumption, then per-capita average income (and thus per-capita average wages) will also need to be at a small fraction of the present levels. We probably really will need to have some chunk of our workforce working for $0.20 (in 2007 dollars) per hour, and a lot of the rest of us will have to get by for not all that much more.
The 2006 per-capita income in Costa Rica was $4980, and to my way of thinking that is about as good of an endgame target that we can dare hope for. If we end up that well off two decades from now, we'll have really dodged a bullet.
That $4980 works out to slightly under $2.40/hour, given a 40 hour work week; at what might become a more realistic 60 hour work week, we are talking about an AVERAGE hourly wage of a little under $1.60. (Looking at it in terms of purchasing power parity looks a litte better: $10,770 per capita, or $5.18/hr @ 40 h/wk, $3.45 @ 60 h/wk. This compares with 2006 US $44260, 21.27/hr @ 40 hrs, 14.19 @ 60 hrs/wk.)
Will there be people working for as little as twenty cents per hour? You bet! There will obviously also be people working for more -- but not that many people (we can't all be "above average"!), and not all that much more.
This all raises a question: How do we restructure US society so that people can exist on these types of wages?
Obviously, even most people with above average income would not be able to drive anything like our existing automobile fleet on anything like a typical commute today; a very well off person might still be able to just manage it in something like a Prius, but that's about it. For almost everyone, it is going to have to be electrified commuter rail and/or biodiesel-fueld shuttle buses and/or NEVs and/or bike/trike and/or walking. In such a transport environment, people are obviously going to have to rearrange themselves so that their homes and workplaces are in closer proximity. Places (a.k.a. suburbs) located far away from ANY employers are going to have to decline and probably be largely abandoned; opportunities may be found in such places for building materials salvage and farmland reclamation. Population densities in those remaining areas located closer to employment opportunities will have to increase, through infill development, conversion of single family into multi-family housing, and sharing of housing by larger groups of related or unrelated people. People are going to have to get used to living in homes that are a lot darker and colder in the wintertime, and warmer in summer; they'll whine, but they'll live.
Food is going to have to take up a much higher percentage of that per-capita income. Under such circumstances, grass lawns will be something only the fortunate wealthy elite can afford to maintain. Most lawns will be come gardens, and community gardens will have to spring up on many a vacant lot. Beef is going to have to become a hugely expensive, rarely enjoyed luxury for most people, as diets typically shift farther down the food chain; most people will be subsisting on legumes, grains, vegies & fruits, with some dairy and very little meat (most of which will be poultry). Between the walking/bicycling, gardening, harder work, colder homes, and more expensive food, weight control will very likely become less of a problem. Nutritional deficiency and outright starvation will be an ever-present worry.
We are talking about a future where the average closet only holds a few clothes, and a person might be able to buy (or more likely, make by hand) a couple new pieces per year; these will have to be durable and functional, forget the frivolous fashion crap. Entertainment will have to become more localized and simple - perhaps a few folks sitting on the front porch with someone playing a guitar, perhaps listening to a hand-cranked radio, perhaps reading a book borrowed from the library. Life will have to get pretty simple and basic for most people.
This is not the end of the world. There are many places in the world where people are living good lives in just this way. There are other places where people wish and pray that they had it even this good. The truth of the matter is: it really is good enough for anyone, including us. We truly don't need all the excess CRAP that is causing us to burn through the earth's non-renewable resources like maniacs.
Th challenge: How to get from here to there, while avoiding a crash to zero (a.k.a. extinction)?
One answer is to simplify, de-accumulate, and powerdown our lifestyles now; start living as if this already was the norm. The more people that do this, the smaller the problem.
Another answer is to not just educate people about the problem of PO, but also to put before them a vision of the future like this.
Obviously there are a whole cluster of policies that must be implemented as well, many of which we have discussed.
WNC: I have spent some time in CR-those numbers don't tell the whole story. Compared to the USA, IMHO $30000 a year in CR is equivalent to $120000 a year in the USA. With health insurance, property taxes, house insurance, car insurance,increased food costs, and greatly increased heating and A/C expense, IMHO, people would literally die in the USA on $1.60 an hour. The important thing is to make sure they are taxed even if they are making $1.60 an hour.
Your $30K:$120K proportion pretty much matches up with the $10,770:$44260 PPP numbers I posted - a 1:4 ratio. As a reality check: Could a US economy (and US energy demand) that is 25% of its present size be sustained by reasonably potential US renewable energy resources? My gut level guess is, yes.
Of course, there is a problem with trying to make such comparisons between countries. Places are different. CR is tropical and has essentially a 365 day growing season; except on the southern edge, most of the US is looking at something like 150-250 days max. That makes a big difference on the amount of food that can be produced per capita and per acre. CR also gets more rainfall than most of the US. It is also a tiny, compact country, the US is huge and sprawls. Of course, much of the US has winters requiring heating, CR doesn't. On the other hand, the US also has some advantages over CR: greater diversity in the range of crops that can be grown, a larger internal market, huge investments in health care & higher education, etc. While our manufacturing industry has been gutted, there is enough human capital still out there that a restoration of our ability to make most of the essential stuff we really need might still be possible, making us potentially more self sufficient than CR.
Nevertheless, I think that there is value in thinking of CR as a rough model of the type of target US society we can aspire to as a realistic best case. There was an article by Francois Cellier posted on TOD a little over a month ago, plotting countries by level of socioeconomic development and ecological footprint.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2534
Cuba came in as the only truly sustainable society; unfortunately, there is so much baggage associated with THAT example that we might as well disregard it. However, CR was a very close runner up; Uruguay was close behind, with Ecuador, Dom. Rep., Phillipines and Thailand not much further behind. Those are all more palatable models. CR especially has an unusually positive image; of the seven countries I just mentioned, I have no doubt that CR would get the first place vote of just about anyone.
Since CR generates relatively positive vibes, it commends itself as a good model to visualize as we try to think about the future pathways we might choose. In terms of broad economic measures like per capita income, I really do believe that we are going to have to be looking at the CR level as just about the best case level at which we can have any realistic hope of stopping the slide.
Of course there will be differences. Almost anywhere in the US (or any formerly constituent parts thereof), a greater percentage of per-capita income will have to be allocated to winter heating, and maybe to food and to transport as well. This just means that there are going to have to be some aspects of material life in the USA (or constituent parts) that are going to be at a lower level than what is commonly enjoyed in CR. The per-capita budget pies for CR and for the USA will be sliced differently, but we need to be thinking in terms of similarly-sized pies.
As I indicated in my previous post, some things are going to have to go.
A/C? Forget it, get a fan and a porch or shade tree.
Heating? Get used to 55-60F max indoors in the wintertime. Stock up on sweaters and long-johns and down comforters now - they will be available then, but cost a big chunk of the household budget. Increased numbers of people living in each housing unit will help (body heat, you know).
Health insurance? We're going to have to re-do the way we do health care - maybe not to the way Cuba does it, but the present system will be unaffordable. Different states or other constitutent successor units of the USA will undoubtedly experiment with different models, but all of them are going to end up with lower cost - and probably lower quality -- health care. There will probably be an affordable system of basic care that is good enough for most people, and there will probably continue to be elite-level care for elite-level patients for elite-level $$$. Some non-elite people with chronic conditions might need to just tough it out and live with it, and it might be worse than that.
Car insurance? Good news! No car = no car insurance! Some people might want bicycle insurance, but a very good lock and chain might be the best insurance you can get.
House insurance? We won't be able to afford to insure folks living in flood zones or along hurricane coasts or on active fault lines. Subtract out those high-cost risks and most property owners will probably continue to find some type of property insurance affordable and essential.
Property taxes? These can't keep going up. In fact, the entire government "take" at all levels will have to decrease substantially. As it is at the local level that most of the really important services are provided, this implies only one thing: The US Federal government is totally unsustainable, unaffordable, and will be only a memory of history in such a downsized USA. Best case, perhaps some sort of interstate or interregional compact can sustain some sort of very loose continental free trade area and regional security alliance. You can just about draw a line though every single item in the US federal budget, though -- it can't figure into a US economy that is only 25% of the present size. There would still be room for some local property taxes, and maybe for a very small local consumption tax as well.
Food? As I indicated, this will be taking a larger slice of the personal budget pie. If food prices go up, people WILL change how they eat. If beef is unaffordable (which it will probably have to be, it is way too energy and land intensive), people will switch to chicken, then to beans. Also, people can just eat less; most of us should anyway. As I said, maintaining a lawn of grass will look absurd under such conditions, so the lawns will be dug up and the potatoes and other garden crops will go in. Very few people will be able grow 100% of their own food, but there will also be very few people that could not participate in growing SOME of their own food, and very few that will be able to afford to avoid doing so.
The CR - US comparison is apt in another way, ironically. Both economies are propped up by cheap foreign labor, Nicaraguan in CR and Mexican (and other) in US. A colleague of mine is working on this, I don't have quantitative data on scale at hand.
Heating? Get used to 55-60F max indoors in the wintertime.
Bah. Piker. 45F. Ya sleep in a sleeping bag. Live like the Japanese sit-coms...where the joke is how the family is gathered around the heated table and one of persons really needs to go to the bathroom but doesn't want to leave the heated table.