DrumBeat: August 8, 2007
Posted by Leanan on August 8, 2007 - 9:01am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Dave Cohen: Upstream Economics and the Future Oil Supply
A multitude of factors, both geological and economic, point toward a peak in the world's oil supply by 2015. Today's sermon focuses on sharply rising upstream finding and development (F&D) capital costs that jeopardize ongoing and future oil projects. It does not appear, as most economists believe, that higher oil prices and Adam Smith's invisible hand will bring forth abundant new oil supplies to meet rising demand, as happened in the North Sea and Prudhoe Bay in the 1980's. Inflation is hampering the global oil industry's ability to ease a tight market that has little spare capacity.
Bodman to push OPEC for more oil
Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on Wednesday he wants OPEC to pump more oil as crude prices hover near record levels and he will push that message to the group's ministers ahead of their meeting next month....Separately, Bodman said the Energy Department may try again this fall to purchase crude oil to fill the nation's emergency petroleum stockpile.
Oloibiri, in Bayelsa State, where in 1956, the first oil well was discovered, challenges Nigeria to attend to the matters of the Niger Delta quickly. All that remains of Oloibiri today is the capped, emptied well, a reminder of the worse future that awaits the Niger Delta. Oloibiri is abandoned to its fate - the world has moved to other oil wells.This aspect of the Niger Delta is ignored. If the wealth from the Niger Delta cannot be expended in restoring the environment and giving the people another means of living, after oil exploration has banished the local economy and compromised many basic rights of the people, what happens when the oil finishes or exploration moves further offshore?
Ethiopia rebels warn oil companies to stay away
Ethiopia's Ogaden rebels warned oil companies interested in the volatile but energy-rich region on Wednesday not to be lulled into a "false sense of security" by the government, saying their forces were well armed.
Automakers highlight low-CO2 vehicles
Automakers are putting a new emphasis on cars and trucks that excel at cutting carbon-dioxide emissions to reduce global warming.
Oil forecasting off-target - It's a slippery slope for experts trying to predict the price of oil. Their record makes weather forecasting look easy.
Since 1985, federal government forecasts on oil prices have missed the mark, on average, from 6 percent to 116 percent."I've done 120 short-term energy outlooks and I've probably gotten two of them right," said Mark Rodekohr, a veteran Department of Energy (DOE) economist.
"We've long been embarrassed by our mistakes," he said.
Private forecasters have done little better. Even with Monday's big drop, if oil prices don't fall a lot further, 2007 will mark the ninth year in a row that the "market consensus" guessed low on how high oil prices would go.
On average, private forecasters have undershot their target by 31 percent each year, according to a recent analysis by Deutsche Bank. In the past five years, the price of a barrel of oil has tripled. The fact is, few experts saw it coming.
Escape From Suburbia: Beyond the American Dream
The message in this film has moved past the identification and understanding of a problem and toward an analysis of it and how people can take action toward solving the problem. The overall message conveyed in this film is one of hope and optimism, but only if the viewer puts into motion solutions through their own actions. This notion was succinctly articulated in the film by the quote, "'Action encourages optimism."
The great Arctic Circle oil rush
As the countries bordering the Arctic hammer out who can lay claim to what parts of the ocean, one major player is missing: the U.S. Why? Because of an unlikely spat between Big Oil and a group of Republicans over the UN treaty that governs who can claim rights to those waters.
Transport crisis drains frustrated Zimbabweans
A month ago, Samson used to queue for an hour to catch a bus to work and home. Now it's a three-hour trip because a severe fuel shortage and a price blitz targeting inflation has hit the transport industry, forcing bus drivers to quit.
Shell Evacuates North Sea Workers After Power Outage
Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) has evacuated workers from its North Sea Brent Bravo platform after the facility suffered a power outage Friday.
The Trinidad and Tobago Government is expected to release details of its latest natural gas audit by mid-month following newspaper reports that the Houston-based audit consultant, Ryder Scott, found an 11 per cent decline in the country's natural gas reserves.
For Russians, rewards and risks of soaring ruble
Not long ago, Russians held their currency in such low esteem that some plumbers in Moscow preferred to be paid in bottles of vodka rather than rubles.Now, lifted by a rising tide of high prices for oil, Russia's most lucrative export, and a wave of foreign investment, the once humble ruble has made a mighty recovery.
Nigeria: 40bbls Oil Reserve By 2010 Not Feasible, Says NNPC
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has said the targeted 40 billion barrels (bbls) oil reserve by 2010 is no longer attainable.Group Managing Director, (GMD) of the corporation, Engr. Funsho Kupolokun, argued that enormous energy requirements are needed to achieve the set target as the reserve addition and replacement ratio need to increase by 200 per cent or 800 million barrels per day within the three years.
Iraq blackouts blamed on fuel shortage
Iraq's Electricity Ministry is blaming the Oil Ministry for current electricity shortages, saying the nation's power generators don’t have enough fuel."Electricity generation can hardly meet half of the country's needs," said the ministry's Aziz Shammari. "Power output has never been as worse as it is today since 2003."
Much of the country goes long hours, if not days, without power in the midst of the Iraqi August, where temperatures soar above 100 degrees F.
The Electricity Ministry had been blaming power-producing provinces for eating up more than their electricity quota, as well as regular attacks on electricity infrastructure.
Analysis: Time to withdraw Iraq oil law?
Iraq's citizens suffer from the August heat, little electricity and fuel. Death is seemingly around every corner. So the time may not be right for an oil law, especially the one the Bush administration wants.UPI has found a recurring theme over recent months during coverage of the Iraq oil law: creating a law governing the bloodline to Iraq's economy should be less of a priority than stopping the bloodletting of Iraq's citizens.
But if four power plants (1,420 megawatts) were scheduled to undergo maintenance shutdown, how come two other plants (1,150 megawatts) did not have enough fuel?In the private sector, this would readily be called “mismanagement.” In short, you’re fired!
Deregulation Blackout: How media hype California's fake energy crisis
Power shortage! Unavoidable blackouts! Too much environmental regulation! All these media themes about the electric crisis in California have one thing in common: They are utterly false.
Where's the Beef, Indeed: A Steak Shortage Hits N.Y.
The country's effort to move away from a dependence on foreign oil and embrace green initiatives appears to be behind a change in one of New York's purest traditions, the menu of the classic steakhouse.
Smallhold farmers feel under attack
The first thing people would likely notice if transportation to Vancouver Island stopped for some reason would be grocery store shelves going empty.After that, says Lantzville farmer Dirk Becker, things would get nasty.
Beyond biofuels, scientists seek uses for byproducts
If Holser, a research chemist, and his colleague Steven Vaughn, a plant physiologist, are successful, they will not only have found ecologically friendly ways to fight weeds and grow grass. They will have found innovative uses for a byproduct of biodiesel production, glycerol. This, in turn, could help transform the biodiesel industry into something that more closely resembles the petroleum industry, in which fuel is just one of many profitable products.
Researchers studying western European temperature records have found that the length of heat waves there has doubled since 1880, from 1.5 days to 3 days on average. They also say that the number of summer days that are far hotter than the average for a particular date has tripled.
In comparison with the amount of coal burned for a given electrical generation, the nuclear proponents argue that the amount of uranium required for the same output from a nuclear power station is tiny. This leads to misleading statements intended to reassure the consumer that nuclear power is "home grown" or "indigenous". In comparison with insecure supplies of oil and gas from politically unstable regions, it is claimed that it offers security of supply, because such a small quantity of fuel can be readily procured and stocked.
The Murray is the lifeblood of Australia's farming country, a legendary river that thundered 1,500 miles from the Snowy Mountains to the Indian Ocean. Now, it's choking to death in the worst drought for a thousand years, sparking water rationing and suicides on devastated farms. But is the 'big dry' a national emergency, or a warning that the earth is running out of water?
World Oil Outlook: Rising Consumption & Production Restraints Keep Prices Firm
Continued production restraint by members of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), rising consumption, and moderate increases in non-OPEC supply are keeping oil prices firm. The global oil balance for the remainder of 2007 has tightened since the last Outlook due to lower projections for world oil production and a larger projected Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stock draw in the second half of the year. This situation contrasts with conditions last year, when prices weakened in the second half due to slow consumption growth, rising global inventories, and the absence of hurricane-related oil supply losses. EIA projections for 2008 also point to a tight market, with higher consumption growth in 2008 than in 2007, moderate growth in non-OPEC supply, increased demand for OPEC oil, and limited surplus production capacity, held mostly in Saudi Arabia.These tight conditions leave the market vulnerable to unexpected supply disruptions, especially as oil inventories are reduced over the coming months.
New Orleans: Risky business for insurance
New Orleans, which sits an average of six feet below sea level, is slowly dropping into the Mississippi Delta sediment, a fact acknowledged by the Army Corps of Engineers and others who have reviewed land surveys.Says Robert Hartwig, chief economist at the Insurance Information Institute: "New Orleans is the most vulnerable city in America. Despite the best-laid plans, ultimately Mother Nature is going to have her way."
Indeed, some of the city's most vulnerable neighborhoods are sinking at the alarming rate of an inch per year. The wetlands around New Orleans, a network of marshes and tributaries that once served as protection from the invading Gulf of Mexico, are rapidly eroding.
Sea levels are rising too. As if that weren't enough, recent weather patterns suggest a ten-year period of more frequent and more severe hurricanes in the gulf.
...As for the levees, they won't do much to mitigate the increasing flood risk - even after they are fortified. Why? Because they're sinking too.
Peaker plants and SF's energy future
What is motivating the powerful but little-known state agency to demand that San Francisco — the only US city with a federal public power mandate — prepare for a future in which energy use continues to grow, conservation lags, the private sector controls the city's power supply, and the city's plans for cutting power use are a failure?
Competition for limited natural gas supplies is not theoretical. Prices are twice what they were in 2001 with no end in sight - unless California can secure a new supply of natural gas.Fortunately, good options do exist. One is OceanWay, a proposed offshore project that would safely import the liquefied natural gas we need to power California's booming economy and hold down heating and electricity costs in the region.
Sri Lanka: The rise in vehicle numbers
We reported yesterday that 150,000 more vehicles have flooded our roads in the in the first half of this year. According to the Department of Motor Traffic this amounts to a 14,000 increase compared to the corresponding period in 2006....While the Government may take pride in this distinction attached to the country it would do well to take cognisance of the downside of this whole development.
It is clear that the country is in the throes of an energy crisis compounded by the rise in world oil prices and the addition of 150,000 fuel guzzling vehicles into the existing volume - and within six months at that - is not a very pleasing prospect.
Energy Shortages Highlighted in Korean Nuclear Talks
North Korea's need for energy is desperate — and captured in pictures for all the world to see. Now-famous satellite photos show an overwhelmingly dark North Korea at night contrasting with the well-illuminated cities and towns of its rivals South Korea and Japan.And so it was with that need in mind that negotiators from six countries—the United States, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia—sat down Tuesday at the Korean border truce village of Panmunjom to discuss energy aid that the North will receive if it fulfills its promise to identify and dismantle its nuclear facilities and supplies.
Ghana: Load shedding takes toll on ECG
The Managing Director of the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), Jude Osarfo Adu-Amankwah has disclosed that the current power crisis being experienced in the country was having very serious negative effects on the country’s energy infrastructure.The current situation could reduce the life span of the machines, “Some equipment which is designed to be switched on once a year is now being switched on over 20 and more times in a year and that is putting a lot of stress on the machines,” Mr Adu-Amankwah said in an interview after the opening ceremony of a Union of Producers, Transporters and Distributors of Electric Power in Africa (UPDEA) human resource colloquium in Accra.
Chávez buys $500M in Argentine bonds, wants more
Chávez also said Venezuela would invest in a regasification plant for liquid natural gas for Argentina, which is currently weathering an energy crisis. He said the plant could be completed within two years, and local reports said it would cost at least $400 million.
US Congressman Jim Saxton, ranking Republican member of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC), released on last Thursday a study, "The Strait of Hormuz and the Threat of an Oil Shock", that analyzed Persian Gulf oil shipments, scenarios of oil-supply disruptions, potential market reactions, and their effects on the price of oil and the impact on the US economy.Contrary to the usual dire warnings one usually sees about threats to Persian Gulf and other regional oil supplies, which have been regularly issued since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo of 1973 and subsequently the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, the study concluded that the increased flexibility and resiliency of the US economy have improved its ability to withstand a temporary oil-supply disruption.
Putin calls for expanded Russian refining
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an expansion of the country's oil refining industry."National enterprises are substantially lagging behind foreign companies in terms of advanced oil refining and producing the main oil products," he said Monday in a meeting with oil and gas companies. "When producing crude oil, Russia has to buy many petrochemical products, from plastics to chemical fibers.
"Thus, the weak development of our own refining industry results in substantial economic costs," Putin said. "We are missing the opportunity to fill more profitable niches in the world's division of labor."
Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish government approved a regional oil law on Tuesday, paving the way for foreign investment in their northern oil and gas fields even as similar U.S.-backed legislation for the entire country remained stalled.
Outlawing OPEC Won’t Solve US Energy Crisis, Says Expert
America’s attempt to force down the price of crude oil through its No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) Act of 2007 may not solve the country’s energy crisis, an American expert has said.
6 Russians released in Nigeria
Kidnappers on Tuesday released six Russian aluminum smelter workers kidnapped more than two months ago in restive southern Nigeria.
Cyprus: We won’t be bullied over oil
Nicosia yesterday reiterated that it would not be intimidated into scrapping bids for oil drilling after Ankara stepped up its campaign to halt the process with a direct appeal to United Nations Secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon.Meanwhile more reports have been emerging that a Turkish oil explorer has been making forays into the eastern Mediterranean. According to the Turkish media, the vessel set off from the port of Alexandretta, but neither its current location nor destination are known. It is believed the ship may be headed for areas adjacent to Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone.
This week's USDA report could be a precursor to another runup in corn prices, spelling bad times for an ethanol industry looking to get off the ground.
Coral reefs dying faster than expected
Coral reefs in much of the Pacific Ocean are dying faster than previously thought, according to a study released Wednesday, with the decline driven by climate change, disease and coastal development.
UN: Global warming to hit poor hardest
Global warming will likely hit food production in developing nations the hardest, increasing the risks of drought and famine in the countries that already struggle to feed their populations, a senior U.N. official said Tuesday.However, a rise in global temperatures would increase food production in most industrialized countries, which mostly have colder climates, said Jacques Diouf the director general of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
Getting started: Time to start fighting global warming is now
The time for debate about whether climate change is happening and whether we humans are largely to blame has passed. It's time to start doing something about it.That seems to be the message in a report from eight Utah scientists for use by Gov. Jon Huntsman's Blue Ribbon Advisory Council on Climate Change. The report doesn't recommend any particular steps to reduce carbon emissions, but the implications of doing nothing come through loud and clear...
A couple of days ago, Paal and AlanFBE were debating wind turbine output. Paal said some turbines in Norway were achieving only 20%. Here in the UK, I think the number is about 25%. The highest number I have ever seen is from this GE press release, 500M kWh for a 130 MW installation. This equates to 43+% !
Congressman James Saxton of the Joint Economic Commmittee is whistling in the dark if he thinks that blocking the Strait of Hormuz would have little economic effect. 40% of the worlds crude exports move through there.
And, he seems to think the insane Iraq war has had no effect on the US ability to station troops and ships in the Persian Gulf, in spite of the Saudi's sending at least 50 recruits a day to the Sunni militias in Iraq who are killing 5/6ths of the American troops or the abhorence that most moslems have for the totrure of captives at Abu Graib.
Al Quaida sinking just one supertanker would paralise the transportation industry from huge increases of insurance. And their attack on the USS Cole proves how easily they can do that,Bob Ebersole
There's three strikes against the credibility of the article. All too often those three words are a pointer to status quo thinking. They describe a group who don't want to consider the possibility of sudden upset.
Bob, I find it interesting that Bush/Cheney decided that now is the time to go forward with the $20 billion arms deal to SA. The body of water between SA and Iran is named 'The Persian Gulf', not the Saudi Arabian Gulf, and for good reason.
River,
The foreign fighters who are crossing the border to attack our troops are Saudi. Fifteen out of 19 of the 9/11 attackers were Saudi. The Sunni militia's that cause 5/6ths of our casualties are Saudi financed and armed.
In the first Bush administration the Iran Contra affair had the Reagan bunch arming the Iranianians for the cash to fight an illegal war in Nicaragua by giving arms to the Israeli's.
It was proved that this was a deal which was made to keep our embassy hostages captive until after the election to embarrass Carter and manipulate the election of 1982.
This is a bunch of traitors, arming the guys that are shooting at our troops, causing people to stay in Iranian custody to manipulate the electoral process. If people say support our troops then arm their enemy they are traitors. That's what I don't understand about the talk show conservatives, are they just stupid or are they traitors too?
Bob Ebersole
We are old. We do not understand that the "troops" are not people. They are not our friends and children. They are tools. Cheap tools. Disposable tools.
River,
The foreign fighters who are crossing the border to attack our troops are Saudi. Fifteen out of 19 of the 9/11 attackers were Saudi. The Sunni militia's that cause 5/6ths of our casualties are Saudi financed and armed.
In the first Bush administration the Iran Contra affair had the Reagan bunch arming the Iranianians for the cash to fight an illegal war in Nicaragua by giving arms to the Israeli's.
It was proved that this was a deal which was made to keep our embassy hostages captive until after the election to embarrass Carter and manipulate the election of 1982.
This is a bunch of traitors, arming the guys that are shooting at our troops, causing people to stay in Iranian custody to manipulate the electoral process. If people say support our troops then arm their enemy they are traitors. That's what I don't understand about the talk show conservatives, are they just stupid or are they traitors too?
Bob Ebersole
Bob, I don't know where to begin.
The foreign fighters who are crossing the border to attack our troops are Saudi. The foreign fighters are OUR troops, US! Illegally, criminally, period. The are getting killed because they were put there by criminals. They'll stop getting killed and maimed when they are withdrawn, although many will still die later from exposure to Depleted Uranium, not to mention a host of other ailments the hell they've gone thru will cause.
But their suffering is nothing compared to that of the Iraqis. Here we speak not in thousands, but hundreds of thousands, and even possibly a million. (A John Hpkins study had it at 660K a year or so ago.) If one goes back to the period of the first Gulf War, it reaches a few million in a country of 22 million or so. And even this does not due justice to the scope of the devastation our gov't has visited.
There have been repeated counter-statements by our own generals to the assertion that the resistance fighters are other than Iraqi, at least for the most part. If someone invades your country, you fight back. That's totally natural and totally justified and totally expected.
As for the fable of the 19 hijackers, read ANY of theologian David Ray Griffin's books on 9-11, or look at videos of his talks, or read what various US Ret. Lt. Cols. in the AF have written -- e.g. Bob Bowman, former Star Wars chief (under Nixon and Ford I believe) -- but there are many others. Oh, you haven't seen this on the MSM? Really? Wonder why. But it's true. You cannot just accept this story without investigation. This is no longer possible. There are too many people you cannot dismiss as kooks who have taken it up. Peak Oil is a matter for investigation. GW is also. So is this issue. Griffin's works are utterly lethal.
We can get hung up in the correct language all we want. I was protesting this damn war for months before the US invaded, even got fired from a crummy job for doing same, you can't talk at work.
But, at this point, Iraq is like the Tar Baby story in the politicially incorrect Uncle Remus tales. The United states is just stuck like Chuck. I'm going to assume that you love the US, even if you think the government is the worst that we've ever had. I know I do. And i've met dozens of Iraq veterans when I was working in El Paso as they were training to go back. They are mostly decent, working class kids with the finest motives-they joined the Army and reserves to get a college education without a monster student debt. They believe in working, they are patriotic and I don't mean jingoist, they are some of the finest elements of American society.
They have been betrayed by the Traitors like Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Poindexter, Wolfowitz, Rice. Those monsters are arming their enemies, and the troops shouldn't be there.
But the other side is that now the neocons have totally screwed up everything with an immoral invasion,killing 800,000 Iraqis and torturing god knows how many to death-if the US leaves Iraq, we may never get another barrel of oil out of the mideast. Our currency has fallen rapidly to trash, and no other country in that region will ever allow us to have our troops there again. The export land model is going to look like the kind, easy path down. The economy will collapse and people here will starve.
If you can figure out a way out, please tell me. It is so screwed up I haven't got a clue. I'm a pacifist, I've been anti-war since I turned 15 during Viet Nam.
But the first thing is acknowlege the truth-the Bush family and all their toadies are traitors. And they have been for at least 30 years.
Bob Ebersole
Bob, I agree with you. The biggest mistake was attacking and attempting to occupy Iraq. The second biggest mistake was Bremmers dismissal of the entire Iraqi civil service and military, probably on orders from Bush/Cheney. I too was holding up signs and getting the finger prior to the start of the invasion. I could see a rerun of Nam and now we have it only this time its for that rare commidity...oil. If we lose this one we are screwed, as you pointed out, and I see no way to win it with the morons that are in charge or any of the wannabe morons waiting in the wings.
"If we lose this one..."
If? It seems clearly lost already.
It seems that perhaps we are violent agreement, to put it the way a friend of mine expresses it. Certainly I feel the same way about the soldiers your do. I'm the only male in my family who didn't serve in the military -- my son, my two brothers, my father, my grandfather (maybe not the other one). My son was lucky to have served between the two Gulf Wars. I can't imagine the pain of having had him come back in a box. Sheer luck.
I love the direction the Republicans have taken - crowding around Bush, who is at 25% before the troops who've been through the Iraq meat grinder start speaking out. One has to wonder at the files Rove must have to enforce such discipline.
Of course, Peak Oil fixes everything. Slimy, religious fanatic pandering Republican corporatists and slimy, faux populist Democratic corporatists are parasites on We, The People for the benefit of corporations. There is about to be an extensive, long term culling of that corporate herd and I am eager to see if we get outright theocracy, as the disenfranchisement of unbelievers is the only way the Republicans can remain in power, or whether a New Deal style Democrat might arise instead.
Chinese product, Chinese investment, and a Chinese curse for us all - we are definitely living in interesting times.
It's my all time favorite curse.
Tim
Quick Question to TOD readers here:
Have there ever been, or is there a listing somewhere, of accidents with LNG terminals or LNG transport ships?
(WestPac is wanting to build a terminal on the South Coast of BC... just looking for some more information).
Thanks...
To my knowledge, there has never been a major release of contents shipping accident with LNG transport ships. There have been two grounding incidents and there are probably any number of small, minor collision scenarios. But nothing major that I recall or have been able to find.
As for the LNG terminals, there have been incidents but no major failure or release of the contents from the terminals. The nightmare scenario is probably a BLEVE, but none have been associated with LNG shipping or the large scale terminal storage associated with LNG shipping.
Info on actual LNG accidents here (very safe so far):
http://www.ferc.gov/industries/lng/safety/safety-record.asp
Worst case possibilities here (could be bad if you are closer than a couple of miles at the time):
http://www.local.org/Exhib6.pdf
http://www.coastal.ca.gov/energy/lng/sandia-hightower-lng-2.pdf
Of the three or four listed in the report here I remember the one on Staten Island in 1973 very well. I was growing up there at the time. To this day, 2 of the largest LNG tanks ever buildtstand idle and rusting away on the southwest shore. They never went into service as a result of that accident.
-Don
Just google "LNG accidents" and the first one that comes up is a good one.
Note: Clicking on the above link fails but clicking on the top line from Google works. I have no explination why.
Sorry I could not just post a working URL but Adobe version 8 does not display the URL at the top of the PDF page. (The older versions did.) Clicking on the link from google seemed to work fine but I could not copy and paste the above URL and get it to work.
The last one:
Ron Patterson
People just defeated BP building an LNG terminal on Pelican Island, across the harbor from Galveston Island, but with some of our highest population concentration within a three mile radius.
My main problem, besides safety, is that BP apparently bribed the Port Authority to have a secret meeting and also some of our city council members. They had secret meetings and rushed a lease option through at way too small a price.
The other problem was they were'nt paying enough. Negotiate for at least 1/32 of the value of the gas as a payment for your right-of-way, so if they build expansions you get your fair share.Remember, your government is going to bear all the cost of security, and all the cost of emergency services if there is an accident.
As far as environment, if it isolated enough and warms the discharge water to the bay temperature, it may be a lot less distructive than building more gas pipelines to BC. If you need the gas, which you likely do, consider what the alternatives are too.
Bob Ebersole
Congress just voted away your constitutional rights.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marshall-grossman/fisa-and-the-caterpillar...
I noticed a great deal of discussion/debate on TOD recently about possible moves the Fed might take to counter inflation or deflation in the US economy but little was mentioned about the fate/state of the US worker. Since the US economy is closely linked to that of China now all moves by the Fed must in some measure take into account the effects on the economy of China and possible Chinese responses. Here is a link to comments made recently in Foreign Affairs about the recent division between rich and poor in America, how they got where they are, possible MAD economic measures by China, and some excerpted comments...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IH09Dj01.html
'The core of the issue is growing angst among wage earners in the US; their earning potential has stagnated - politicians are simply reflecting this real concern.
Over the last several years, a striking new feature of the US economy has emerged: real income growth has been extremely skewed, with relatively few high earners doing well while incomes for most workers have stagnated or, in many cases, fallen. Just what mix of forces is behind this trend is not yet clear, but regardless, the numbers are stark. Less than 4% of workers were in educational groups that enjoyed increases in mean real money earnings from 2000 to 2005; mean real money earnings rose for workers with doctorates and professional graduate degrees and fell for all others.
In contrast to earlier decades, today it is not just those at the bottom of the skill ladder who are hurting. Even college graduates and workers with non-professional master's degrees saw their mean real money earnings decline. By some measures, inequality in the United States is greater today than at any time since the 1920s. - Kenneth Scheve and Matthew Slaughter, Foreign Affairs July/August 2007
If true, this validates the view that US and Western workers not in the upper echelon income categories are bearing the brunt of enriching poor Asians. And the benefits of this are flowing disproportionately to the upper-echelon earners.
So, the threat of MAD becoming reality is real - driven by real factors and fears. Rational individuals would avoid such a path. But the tug of events and circumstances sometimes take nations where they really don't wish to be.'
I don't think China is going let us leave them holding the bag (i.e., let us inflate away our debt). They will sacrifice their new middle class if necessary. Yes, they know it will cause civil unrest. They are prepared to deal with it.
'They are prepared to deal with it.' I believe you are right, Leanan. I also believe that much of the Bush drive to garner more powers at the expense of our constitution is to position the US Government to 'deal with' domestic problems that will arrise when the FWO (formerly well off) begin to feel frisky...Once they finally realise that they are the 'lobsters in the pot.'
Look at the USA from a similar outside perspective.
Maybe for the long term prospects of our country it makes sense for the Fed and Powers That Be (PTB) to allow the lower classes to be crushed in order for real wealth to be maintained at the very top (in order to start again).
Are there alternative options available to the Fed\PTB that would leave the USA in a better position to rebuid after the seemingly likely Financial Crunch?
Imagine we had leaders truly looking out for Everyone, what would their actions look like?
Buried: I am not sure if you have heard of the concept of globalization. Simply put, your PTB are not concerned about "your" country- they have more important things to worry about.
Right. They now look at countries the same way they look at businesses and product lines -- everything they need to know they learned in Marketing 101:
Pour investment capital into Rising Stars. That used to be the USA until around 1970 or so; China is the Rising Star today.
Milk the Cows. That has described the US, and what they have been doing to it, for the past quarter century or so.
Disinvest, sell out, and kill off the Dogs. This describes the new game plan for the USA, presently coming into full swing.
Imagine we had leaders truly looking out for Everyone, what would their actions look like?
Instead of a trillion-dollar military occupation, we'd have a trillion dollars worth of PV panels on rooftops throughout the country. And we might be seeing some electric cars on the road by now.
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.
Actually I don't think China will sacrifice the new middle class I think they will sacrifice their poor. China has fairly strong inter-province border controls and these can be tightened. So I think they will keep the northern and coastal provinces reasonable and effectively shut off movement out of the poorer provinces allowing them to degrade. In effect they pick about 300 million to make it and let 600 million fend for themselves.
I'd not be surprised of this was not a long term plan if the world economy flattened.
China will sacrifice the middle class, but only if it must. The US is not its only, not even its biggest client, though. The pain may well be worth the prize.
There is still a widespread assumption that the US has China by the balls, but that kind of thing is spectacularly rare in this sort of creditor-debtor relationship. It's the other way around in almost all cases.
The main issue may not be what China MIGHT do to its middle class tomorrow, but what the US DOES do to its own middle class today. Beijing is watching closely what happens today to US consumers' buying powers, the housing malaise, the works.
They must have the impression that most likely, US demand for their products will decrease sharply no matter what they do with the renmimbi/yuan. As consumer credit dries up, and the dollar keeps on sinking vs yen and Euro, they may consider pulling the plug sooner rather than later. Why wait another year, what advantage would that have? Their dollar stocks would lose ever more value.
Why wait? The 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Ohh you mean the Berlin Olympics right ?
It's 1936 dude.
Hello Dragonfly41,
Good point, maybe the last Circus Maximus for the FF-age. Arguably the last exuburant industrial display of globalization's peacock plumage.
It will be interesting to see if the global economy can hold together till then. My guess is that the number of foreign sportsfans will be less than the Chinese expect, and the TV ratings won't be all that great either. Time will tell.
If SARS breaks out again, or avian-flu get loose: China won't have any foreigners visiting.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?