DrumBeat: September 18, 2007

Oil Prices Rise to New Records After Fed's Decision to Cut Interest Rates

NEW YORK - Oil futures rose to new records Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a larger than expected half percentage point, raising market hopes that economic growth will accelerate and lift demand even as crude oil and gasoline inventories are tight.

A barrel of crude surged to a new trading high of $81.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the moments immediately after the Fed's decision. While light, sweet crude for October delivery settled at $81.51 a barrel, up 94 cents, prices continued to rise after the Nymex closed, hitting $82.38 in afternoon electronic trading.

IEA urges Asian countries to lift strategic oil reserves

The International Energy Agency is urging East Asian and Asean countries to beef up oil reserves to ease the impact of oil price volatility, deputy director William Ramsay told a seminar in Bangkok yesterday.

Since oil prices fluctuate with supply, unexpected disruptions can cause prices to quickly shoot up, he said.

Oil reserves in East and Southeast Asia now stand at 30 days, five times lower than in IEA member nations, putting them at risk of a supply shortage. Energy security has been of high concern since the 1970 oil shock, he said.


Report: Average driver wastes 38 hours per year in traffic

"Things are bad and they're getting worse," said Alan Pisarski, a transportation expert and the author of "Commuting in America."

"We've used up the capacity that had been bequeathed to us by a previous generation, and we haven't replaced it," Pisarski said.

The study summed it up this way: "Too many people, too many trips over too short of a time period on a system that is too small."

The study estimates that drivers wasted 2.9 billion gallons of fuel while sitting in traffic. Together with the lost time, traffic delays cost the nation $78.2 billion, the study estimates.


Behind high oil prices

So, what exactly is behind this round of price hikes?

Firstly, an increasingly short supply of oil in the world is the fundamental cause. According to statistics from the British firm BP, the world has been demanding more oil than can be produced since 1981; and the case is still the same today. Currently, oil production in most countries has already or will soon go down – leaving less of a surplus to use – but at the same time, demand keeps increasing.


Oil price concerns airlines

The head of the International Air Transport Association says the continuing high price of oil and the turmoil in credit markets are causes for concern in 2008.


US corn farmers hit with fuel shortages, high costs

Curt Watson, the President of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, said the fuel terminal that usually supplies his area is dry. His supplier has to drive to another area, where long lines with a wait of four hours are not uncommon.

Experts blame a variety of refinery outages for the short supply, including a wave of maintenance shutdowns coinciding with peak harvest season from mid-September through October.

"That basically created a pulldown of inventories, more so than usual, before we entered the (harvesting) season," said Joanne Shore, an oil market analyst with the U.S. Energy Information Administration.


OPEC would discuss output hike if $80 oil lasts

OPEC would likely hold consultations about boosting supply again if the price of oil stayed above $80 a barrel for more than 15-20 days, an OPEC source said on Tuesday.


Iran's IOOC to increase oil output by 2010

Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC) will increase its daily out from 830 thousand to one million barrels by 2010.

The figure shows a 24 percent rise when compared to the figure of 2005 which was about 761,000 barrels per day, indicating a growing trend.

A 3.9 percent fall is predicted in the offshore oilfields by 2024.


Only threat to Alberta is onset of world peace

The future of hydrocarbon production is oil so heavy that is must be mined and separated or heated so it will move. High oil prices and massive reserves have made Alberta's non-conventional oil attractive, but right now this is surely the most expensive petroleum to develop in the world.

Politics don't help. While the public debate about whether Alberta charges enough economic rent through the lease and royalty system will go on forever, there are significant but seldom discussed soft costs that continue to drive up finding and development costs.


Attack on Kirkuk-Bayji pipeline - 26 killed in Iraq

An explosion along an oil pipeline extending from the northern Kirkuk oilfields to Bayji refineries caused damage to both the line and another parallel pipeline between Iraq and Turkey, on Tuesday.

...Firefighters were struggling to contain the damage, a source in the local oil industry said. The explosion is expected to halt production at Bayji refineries, which supply more than half of Iraq's oil products.

According to a source in the water department in Salahaddin, the explosion caused oil to seep into the Tigris river damaging water stations and triggering their temporary closure.


Mexico Risks Joining Colombia As Regular Oil Sabotage Target

As Petroleos Mexicanos resumes natural gas supplies this week after repairing pipelines damaged by a rebel group, uncertainty remains over when the next shutdown might happen.

In July, optimists saw two pipeline attacks as isolated cases of sabotage. Last week, the People`s Revolutionary Army, or EPR, buried that thesis with its third and most costly attack on energy infrastructure.


Peres says Israel to focus on green energy

President Shimon Peres Monday touted Israel as a future think thank for solutions to global warming, quipping that the sun was a more reliable resource than oil from Saudi Arabia.


BP trial ends early with four settlements

The first civil trial to emerge from the March 2005 explosion at BP's Texas City refinery ended today with settlements of undisclosed amounts to four plaintiffs.


Utility Will Use Batteries to Store Wind Power

American Electric Power, a coal-burning utility company that is looking for ways to connect more wind power to its grid, plans to announce on Tuesday that it will install huge banks of high-technology batteries.

The batteries are costly and their use at such a big scale has not been demonstrated, but they may be an essential complement to renewable power, experts say.


The 'Guilty Green' (gasp!) don't always recycle

They drive SUVs, throw perfectly recyclable bottles and cans in the trash, clean their bathrooms with — gasp — bleach and think nothing of sometimes blasting the air conditioner or taking wickedly wasteful long, hot showers.

You think you know the type: the ones who think global warming is a hoax and scarf up natural resources like candy.

Think again.

All of the above are true confessions from the Guilty Green — the same people who say they worry about the planet becoming a giant hot tub.


Vatican Penance: Forgive Us Our Carbon Output

This summer the cardinals at the Vatican accepted an unusual donation from a Hungarian start-up called Klimafa: The company said it would plant trees to restore an ancient forest on a denuded stretch of land by the Tisza River to offset the Vatican’s carbon emissions.


Why $80 oil won't mean $3 gas

"Gasoline season is over, we're going into low demand time," said Stephen Schork, publisher of the industry newsletter the Schork Report.

Schork also said the switch to winter blend gasoline should act to keep the price down, as winter blending components aren't as expensive as cleaner-burning summer blends.

"They are paying up in crude oil, but paying down in feedstocks," he said.


Heating with gas likely to cost less - But oil customers can expect bigger bills this winter

Natural gas customers in Greater Boston can expect to pay roughly 8 to 12 percent less to heat their homes this winter, but the cost of heating oil is rising as world oil prices soar.


The Philippines: Task forces secure US Embassy, oil depot

The Manila Police District has formed two task forces to safeguard the US Embassy and the oil terminal in Pandacan and Sta. Ana amid intelligence reports on possible militant activities including terrorist attacks.


Tear gas used against Myanmar protest, monks hit

Plainclothes police and members of the feared Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) shadowed their route. The USDA has played a prominent role in breaking up protests against soaring fuel prices that began four weeks ago.


French-kissing the war on Iran

President George W Bush goes to New York next week for the annual United Nations General Assembly to ratchet up the demonization of Iran, confident that his new French ally is doing "a heck of a job". President Nicolas Sarkozy - widely referred to in Paris as King Sarko the First - has let loose the dogs of war with more panache than a madame from the chic seventh arrondissement parading her miniature Pinscher.


Zimbabwe: Energy Crisis Threatens Environment

As can be seen in Zimbabwe, urban centres have become a lucrative market for fuelwood because it seems to be relatively available and cheaper than modern fuels. Not only will the alternative forms of energy be a major boost to national economies but such environmental damage as global warming, partly responsible for the recurrent droughts in East and Southern Africa, can also be mitigated.


Coal from Richards Bay rises as Europe demand returns

Coal for shipment from South Africa`s Richards Bay, site of the world`s largest export terminal for the fuel, rose to a three-year high as demand from European customers strengthened.


MMS Chief Defers on Offshore Royalties

The agency that oversees oil and gas drilling on federal lands has no immediate plans to try to force companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico to pay royalties on flawed offshore leases.


Mexicans pay price at the pump

Ordinary Mexicans must wonder sometimes where the benefit is in having one of the world’s major supplies of oil. They certainly don’t see it in the gas prices. Unlike other oil-producing countries, Mexico doesn’t give its citizens cheap gasoline. Whereas Venezuelans pay about 20 cents per gallon (and that pre-dates the socialistic policies of Hugo Chavez), Mexicans pay about $3 a gallon for gasoline from PEMEX, the nationalized gasoline company. And natural gas is equally pricey.


Expert calls Mexico's retooled tax code burdensome

A tax code overhaul, approved by Mexico's Congress on Friday, may fuel inflation and be a drag on growth next year because of its burden on companies, Banco UBS Pactual economist Guillermo Aboumrad said in a report Monday.


Mexico says pipeline bombs helped drug gangs

A left-wing guerrilla group that bombed fuel pipelines last week has indirectly helped Mexico's drug cartels by diverting police and army resources away from combating trafficking, the attorney general said on Monday.

Mexico has reinforced guards at its roughly 19,000 oil installations since the explosions, which followed similar attacks in July claimed by the same group, known by its Spanish initials EPR.


Europe’s New Nuclear Age?

It’s not only the prospect of death that “concentrates the mind wonderfully.” So too, it seems, does the prospect of lights going out. Faced with a looming energy crisis, anti-nuclear Europe is fast abandoning its post-Chernobyl policies and appears ready to embrace a new nuclear age.


Q&A: Wave power

The Centre for Alternative Technology analyses the technology, its benefits and drawbacks.


Oil rises to new intraday record

Oil prices climbed to a new high, above $81 a barrel, on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut a key interest rate later Tuesday, a measure that has the potential to bolster the economy and strengthen petroleum demand in the world's largest energy consumer.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery rose as high as $81.24 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has since retreated to $80.73, still up 16 cents midday in Europe.


We are all peakists now - Schlesinger (podcast)

Former US Energy Secretary Dr James Schlesinger today claimed that the intellectual arguments over peak oil had been won, and that in effect ‘we are all peakists now’. In the keynote speech at the first day of an oil depletion conference hosted by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Cork, Schlesinger said that oil industry executives now privately concede that the world faces an imminent oil production peak, and argued that a recent report by the US oil industry grouping the National Petroleum Council constituted “a backdoor admission that in the next decade or two we face a moment of truth”. In a wide-ranging interview with Lastoilshock.com, Dr Schlesinger - who was also Defence Secretary and CIA Director - explains why he thinks “the battle is over, the peakists have won”, and discusses the delusions of US energy policy, Iraq, Iran and $100 oil.


Kunstler: Shocked, shocked!

Alan Greenspan's memoirs are being flogged across the airwaves, bandwidths and printing presses, and the cohort of those who comment on public affairs in these media are shocked by the Maestro's confessions -- first, that a housing bubble emerged out of his leadership in the banking sector, and second that the Iraq war is about oil. As usual, they're getting it all wrong -- about as wrong as Al himself got it. But that is the way of things in this age of cultural dissipation and gross cognitive dissonance.


Increase in oil, gas drilling projected

Oil and gas drilling on federal lands across the Rocky Mountain West could increase by more than 160 percent over the next two decades due in part to pro-industry regulations enacted by the Bush administration, according to a report by an environmental group.


Rembrandt Koppelaar: Export declines in the era of waning oil abundance

As the era of oil abundance starts to wane, geopolitical relations between consuming countries and producing countries will grow increasingly important. Consumer countries are going to be forced to pursue substitutes and alternative ways of living. Paramount for them is the speed and manner with which their imports will decline.


"The 11th Hour" and Generation Z

But "The 11th Hour" is only one slice of a complete story. It is a parade of talking heads set in a swirling background of Koyaanisqatsi-like images of planetary beauty and destruction. Co-director Nadia Conners calls it "an experience." The images evoke various moods: horror, sublime reverence, fear, love and longing. The speakers voice words of wisdom and profound insight into the science and psychology behind our predicament. Bioneers founder Kenny Ausubel defines the quest at the beginning: It is to understand how the two most complex systems on earth - nature and the human mind - can coexist.


Can US Bully OPEC Into Submission?

The United States Senate, in a move obviously targeted at OPEC, frightened about the effects of spiralling world crude prices and the consequences for the greatest gas guzzling nation on earth, is currently pushing through a Bill to outlaw oil cartels.


Up ahead: Conservation or $100 / barrel oil?

Even more disconcerting for economists, analysts and consumers alike is the secular, long-term trend regarding oil: namely, that both OPEC and non-OPEC sources combined are unable to keep pace with rising demand.


Global warming lawsuit in Calif. tossed

It is impossible to determine to what extent automakers are responsible for global warming damages in California, a federal judge ruled in tossing out a lawsuit filed by California against the world's six largest automakers.

The Fed Will Not Cut

"It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve --nor would it be appropriate -- to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions," Bernanke said in an Aug. 31 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

[On Sept 11] Bernanke said the large US deficit to the rest of the world "cannot persist indefinitely because the ability of the United States to make debt service payments and the willingness of foreigners to hold US assets in their portfolios are both limited." The process of narrowing the gap "will have both real and financial consequences." Should the U.S. deficits stay near current levels, "foreign investors would ultimately become satiated with dollar assets, and financing the deficit at a reasonable cost would become difficult."

Cutting rates would widen the gap, not narrow it, and reduce(if not drive away) foreign investment in US securities. The US Dollar has already become a Pariah.

Bernanke has repeatedly stated inflation is the focus.(Perhaps better understood had he said the decline in the US Dollar is the focus.) Bernanke has already stated no bailout.

The Fed's focus is on protecting(if not saving) the US Dollar. The Fed is also focused on preventing the loss of foreign investment in US debt which would be devastating. Far more devastating than the collapse of the financial markets. They have already ensured the survival of the major banks and consider their job done with regard to the domestic markets.

There will be no cut in the Fed Funds rate. It would result in exactly the opposite of what the Fed is attempting to do.

Bernanke will not succumb to blackmail by the US markets. The markets having 'factored in a cut', will not influence Fed policy. Bernanke is not Greenspan, and there are bigger fish to fry.

If they decide not to cut, they may as well raise it, since that is what is needed to "protect" the dollar. I dont see a neutral decision.

Francois.

If I were Bernanke I would raise it 25 basis points. It would show the rest of the world we are serious.(and also give notice to US markets.)

Nice sentiment...but he has masters too.

There is no correct move anymore...raise it and it will destroy the markets and the credit/debt market...lower it and insure a rapid demise of the USD.

He is well documented about inflating things away...bad things.

So he will reduce the rates (not much) and print money like mad. Lots and lots of money.

To buy lots of worthless paper with...er...I guess it is a fair exchange after all.

World Economy at `Scariest Point Since Depression,' Says Penner

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5I2qVjiG_Ow&refer=h...

The U.S. housing market is an ``unmitigated disaster'' and will take at least another 18 months to recover, as the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank respond to turmoil in credit markets, Penner said. As foreclosures rise, lenders will try to sell the properties they acquire at depressed prices, dragging the market down further, he said.

``The effect that's going to have on the economy is sure to be bad,'' Penner said. ``I don't think we're going to have a depression-like situation, but we are going to print a lot of money, and that's going to have its consequences. The price we will pay as a society to avoid depression is high inflation.''
-snip-
``It's good at this time to be a guy with no balance sheet,'' he said today

WHOA... HALF POINT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV.iQCJeskKU&refer=h...

``Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time,'' the statement said.

That ain't no good...panic anyone?!

Crap!

Hehe...look at the market after the announcement...spike up

http://finance.google.ca/finance?cid=983582

(hope this link works)

Everyone's happy.

At some point, when someone is too much of a sack of sh*t, you bury them.

Lets see what happens to the U$S now.

It went down one cent for just 5 minutes after 2.15. I think it will hit 1.40 today.

U$S dollira ?

Got help us. I'm off to find a good wheelbarrow while they are still less than million.

I'm flexible ;)

BAILOUT!: The Fed Caves to Pressure from White House and US Financial Markets

The Fed announced Tuesday that it was reducing its target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, from 5.25 percent to 4.75 percent.
In addition to cutting the federal funds rate by a half point, the central bank also reduced its discount rate, the interest it charges in making direct loans to banks, by a half-point as well.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has sharply criticized President George W. Bush's administration and Republican congressional leaders for putting political imperatives ahead of sound economic policies.

Bernanke and the Fed just proved to the rest of the world they are NOT serious about addressing the problem of the US Dollar. If the US and the Fed will not address the problem, the world will address the problem to the detriment of the United States.

http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/38614.html

Marc Faber on Bloomberg today said a rate cut would be "suicidal" and "you cannot cure a condition by the same thing that caused it".
Are we looking at hyper-inflation? What kind of time frame?

Hyperinflation - Wikipedia


Inflation 1923-24: A German woman feeding a stove with currency notes, which burn longer than the amount of firewood they can buy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Are we looking at hyper-inflation?

No, we are not.

The Fed continues its gutting of the US economy according to plan, but inflation is not the way to do it. And as Mish explained earlier this week in Is the U.S. printing money like mad?, the printing presses are not anywhere near full speed.

The M3 increase comes from keystroke created money, not printing presses. Much of it will soon be gone, through losses in home values, stocks and derivatives. And you can't have inflation while most of the money vanishes from your economy, let alone hyperinflation.

The rate cut will further devalue the dollar, but the Fed will not make up the difference. The average American will simply have less money to spend.

We will have deflation.

End Game: Hyperinflation
by Robert Blumen

I previously contributed to this debate with an editorial on the so-called Dollar Short Squeeze theory. In the current piece, I will take on what I consider a few of the errors and more questionable arguments that have been appearing from the deflation side.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumen/blumen6.html

We will have deflation to the extent that lowering stock and home values and credit defaults cause the money supply to shrink as money essentially disappears from the economy.

BUT, we will have inflation to the extent that governments attempt to print their way out of the mess we're in AND as declining primary energy causes a contraction of the producible goods and services in relation to a given supply of money.

I think in this case the irresistible force of inflation will win out over the immovable object of defaults and declining market values.

Its a bit funny in a sense. The timing of peak oil and rate of decline will determine when peak oil destroys our economy. The financial games joust to either destroy us with hyper-inflation or deflations are just plain broke no matter how you denominate it. And global warming threatens both oil supply and crops with the population straining all resources.

Maybe I'm a nut and I hope some of our writings survive since I think historians will find the battle over how the oil economy ended funny.

We are toast but is it burnt toast and are we going to land butter side up ?

We are so screwed. Seriously.

It would be wonderful if the Fed operated intelligently, but I don't see it happening.

My prediction is a 25 bp cut.

The Fed needs to calm the markets. Anything other than a cut will increase the panic in the market.

Even the Fed doesn't know the full impact of the credit woes, so they also need to buy some time. The PPI dropped in August, which gives the Fed some room on inflation.

I think it would be shocking if there was not a small cut to soothe fears in the market.

The Federal Reserve cuts its key interest rate by a half of a percentage point to 4.75 percent.

Claptrap. The dollar is propped neither by the strength of US economy, nor even by the interest rates.

It is ultimately propped by the need of reserve currency and the fear of China and Japan they could ruin their own economy if they sell their dollars.

Bernake's "We have the balls" statement was entirely predictable. Which risk is worse? The US financial sector falling into a death liquidity trap or foreigners committing financial suicide? With FED privately owned by the same banks whose pants are shaking now, which side would Benny be willing to take? I don't remember even a single case when the market did not "predict" (actually demanded) Ben to the the proper thing. For them. Since the music is already ordered it costs nothing for him to pay some lip service to maintaining dollar value and still do what he's ordered. And weak dollar is great for the US economy. It's the Chinese who will be paying this bill.

25ppc rate cut. At least.

I think 50 bp is most likely.

Nah, they are also humans and have their fears.

The recent oil run-up and the simultaneous dollar drop should have rang some bells. I would put it 70:30 for 25 vs 50bp

Congratulations. I think you're the only one who guessed correctly.

Leanan: IMHO, I think people underestimate how difficult Bernanke's job is. It is a totally different ball game from when Volcker was in charge. The level of debt in the US economy in relation to the size of the economy servicing the debt puts a ceiling on the level of interest rates- a ceiling which is getting lower each year. Persons who say raise rates to protect the US dollar do not understand that at this point raising rates will not protect the value of the US dollar because the US dollar will not hold its value while the US economy crumbles around it. Bernanke is caught in a rip tide and he is just trying to survive.

But you can also make the counter argument.

Everyone agrees that the problem is one of a lack of confidence.

The Fed just indicated that they have no confidence in the economy.

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp560.htm

Net foreign investment in long-term US securities is $19.2 bn when $90 bn was expected.
Net foreign acquisition - $3.0 bn. Negative, not only did they not invest, they dumped $3 bn. And this is before the rate cut. Fasten your seat belts, this is like the mark telling the Soprano's payments will be cut. LOL.

From the same link:

[Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities increased $66.6 billion.]

666, the sign of the devil and apocalypse. How appropriate.

On the upside, at least September's numbers won't be posted until mid-November.

Confidence is nothing but a lag in time between fundamentals and perceived value, an intermediate, if you will. It can manipulate perceived value, but not forever. If the fundamentals are down, so will be the perceived value.

And everyone savvy knows that the fundamentals were bad two, three years ago.

Also, a FED that continuously tells you that everything's ok has no value at all, because you can't trust it. It has to give some of the times.

BrianT:

Just think, in the good old days priests examined the entrails of a sacrificed sheep to determine the future. Now, we've got the repayment rate of sub-prime borrowers as translated by the oracles of Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan.

What's that, god? What do you mean there's no difference...

That's the little divine revelation I had in my morning meditation today !
Bob Ebersole

Ha! :)

I hope you're right, but I have a hard time believing he won't succumb to the markets (look at Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' speech--he folded immediately to market and political pressure). But Bernanke does face a major difficulty in that he believes in loose money in the face of recession/depression but has the issue of keeping foreign investment interested in U.S. treasuries which are already declining in value as the dollar devalues.

Could this be Alan Greenspan's (and "Helicopter Ben's") theme song?

I'm Forever Blowing Bubbles, a popular song which debuted in 1918 and was first published in 1919:

I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams,
They fade and die.
Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.

They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,

Imagine an alien from outer space
landing on Wall Street today
and asking,
"Why are you humans celebrating?"

Which one of us is elected to tell the alien,
"We just discovered we can keep borrowing from the future as if there is no end to tomorrow"?

Congratulations for being one of the few to understand that ANY rate cut will flush the US$ down the toilet.

Francois is right that an increase is actually needed to truly protect the dollar. Maintaining neutrality would at least guarantee a slow and steady decline in value, though.

Forget any speculation about a rate increase, though. Given all the speculation about as much as a 50 bp cut, there is no way that they are going to spring a surprise of that magnitude on the markets. Were they seriously considering it, there would have been some trial baloons floating.

I wish I could share your optimism about the FED holding steady. Just like generals always fighting the last war, Ben Bernake is still fighting the Great Depression. If he makes a mistake, it will be on the side of easing too much.

We'll know in just a few minutes now.