DrumBeat: September 25, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 25, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Multiple Studies Reveal Dire Meltdown in Arctic
Ice-free by 2015?This news doesn't bode well for the future of the Arctic sea ice and has left Francis and other scientists wondering, "Is this the beginning of a precipitous decline in the sea ice?" Francis said.
In another study that came out earlier this year, Stroeve compared current measurements of sea ice melt with the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's models—and what she found gave her cause for worry.
"We're about 30 years ahead of where the climate models say we should be," Stroeve told LiveScience.
A business that grows organically
Monk represents the growing maturity of an industry that for decades has struggled with a reputation as being on the fringe. Although he lives on a small property on Victoria's Mornington Peninsula (with horses and chooks), he is a tertiary-trained professional who can mix with the corporate world. And in a refreshing change from the glumness that so often accompanies environmental messages, Monk is an optimist."I'm not much of a Henny Penny character; I don't think the sky is going to fall in," he says. "I am actually excited about the coming decades of peak oil [shortages] and water scarcity. I'm more excited for my son and daughter than I am scared..."
Oil Falls Below $79 as Al-Naimi Says Markets Are in Turmoil
Crude oil fell below $79 a barrel in New York as Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said oil markets are in turmoil and companies resumed production in the Gulf of Mexico.
BP: How can a big oil company be doing badly?
The answer seems to be that BP is in the wrong segments of the oil and gas business at the wrong time, and poor management has crippled the company. Its shares are up 10% this year, less than the S&P 500 and virtually all of its competitors.BP is heavily into the refining and natural gas businesses where margins have not been as good as they are in oil exploration.
Nigeria is looking to rework contracts
Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil Corp. and other foreign oil companies operating in Nigeria may soon have to give the government a greater share of revenue from deep-water oil production, Nigeria's petroleum minister said Monday.
Peak oil made me do it: Adrienne Langman (podcast)
The idea that the world's oil supply is going to end, and maybe not that far into the future is gaining acceptance.Experts describe it as "peak oil", a time when the production of oil reaches a climax, then goes into a permanent decline.
Peak oil had a big effect on Adrienne Langman, the author of "Choosing Eden, the real dirt on the coming energy crisis".
She decided to move away from a comfortable existence in the city and away from her family, to a self sustaining lifestyle in the country.
MIT teams with BP on clean energy
The partnership will establish an energy research program, the BP-MIT Advanced Conversion Research Project, which will investigate ways to convert coal and coal-like energies into liquid and gassified fuels and chemicals while reducing coal's notorious carbon dioxide emissions.
Drivers took a hit at the pumps over the last week, the Energy Department said Monday, as gasoline continued its unusual September climb in most of the nation and U.S. diesel prices topped $3 a gallon for the first time in more than a year.
Tolls may be the state’s best option for better roads
Gov. Bob Riley has asked the state Department of Transportation to study the feasibility of new roads that would use tolls to cover construction costs.
With motorists showing unprecedented travel restraint, the Thruway Authority will consider toll hikes, revisions to its E-ZPass discount plan, staff cuts and other measures to stay out of the red, the authority's executive director said Monday....Fleischer said the trend on the Thruway mirrors what's happening on toll roads around the country as motorists finally seem to be adopting a pattern of driving less because of high fuel prices.
Price hikes up for RTD vote tonight
RTD officials say an accross-the-board fare increase is needed because fuel prices and the cost of providing mandatory access-a-Ride transit service to qualified disabled clients have been steadily rising.
Fatigued consumers pinching pennies as bad news seems to snowball
Heightened gas prices might seem like an obvious and oft-hyped reason for economic slowdowns, but more money spent on necessary fuel means less discretionary income for other items.Gas also filters through the economic food chain in other, perhaps unexpected, ways: If it takes more money to fuel a delivery truck headed to the grocery store, eventually, the grocery bill will reflect the increase.
Nicaraguan Seizure Could Hurt Investments
In response to a tax dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp., Nicaraguan officials took control of a fuel storage terminal owned by the Texas-based oil company, leaving foreign investors and the U.S. wondering if history is about to repeat itself.
SYRIA: Oil price rises could provoke unrest
Over 40 years of subsidising fuel and other vital commodities have benefited the rich more than the poor, encouraged smuggling and cost the state more than it can afford, say Syrian government officials.
Kenya: State Should Tame Rogue Oil Dealers
It is sad that whenever international oil prices increase, Kenyan companies immediately adjust pump prices. But when global prices fall, the firms pretend not to notice. This is an unfair and exploitative business practice for which the Government has a solution: freeze oil prices until the next consignment arrives. So far, no Government official has dared to condemn the oil companies.
Zapatistas Back Mexican Rebel Group
Mexico's Zapatista rebels, who waged a short-lived armed struggle against the government 13 years ago, issued a declaration supporting a Marxist guerrilla group believed to be behind recent attacks on the country's oil and gas pipelines.
China opens gas door to foreigners
Domestic gas companies will be allowed to sign more global cooperation deals in a move designed to channel funds and technology into China's gas industry. The State Council has revised a regulation, allowing more "state-designated" companies to set up ventures with foreign partners jointly to explore methane trapped in coal seams.
Putin Phones Norway PM on Shtokman Project
Russian President Vladimir Putin talked on the telephone with Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg about Norway's potential participation in the massive Shtokman project in the Barents Sea, the Prime Minister's office said.
Kuwait wants Shell out of China refinery plan
Kuwait wants to drop Royal Dutch Shell as a partner and is instead considering BP in a project to build a $5 billion oil refinery in Guangdong in China, Kuwait's state news agency KUNA reported on Tuesday.
Lufthansa raises fuel surcharge for intercontinental and European flights
The crude oil and kerosine prices have reached a new record high in the past weeks,' it said in a statement.
Will Your Future Car Pay for Itself?
A revolutionary energy technology has been born. In the not-too-distant future, it will be capable of turning parked cars into power plants. Imagine owning a car that pays for itself, by selling electricity to the local utility while parked.
State pledges $1.5 million for Hudson Valley solar power
Empire State Development, New York’s economic development arm, Monday announced its commitment to provide up to $1.5 million in support of solar-related companies. The money will be available directly to companies that relocate to the Hudson Valley.
Cutting solar panels' high price tag
For all the technical advances in the thriving solar power industry, the large up-front costs of solar electricity in the residential market remains a stubborn barrier to wide adoption.
Some see the plant’s ability to grow in arid conditions and without much water as one of its benefits, but critics dispute this.“Information gathered from elsewhere in the world is contradictory and has to be tested locally to ensure limited environmental impact and sustainability before it is introduced,” Sehoole says.
NRG eyeing 1st nuke plant in decades
Power producer NRG Energy Inc. plans to submit the first application for a new nuclear reactor in the U.S. in nearly 30 years, the company's chief executive said Monday.
Oil is up, and this time the dollar is down
Petroleum is bought and sold in dollars. That meant that as oil prices climbed, so did the global demand for dollars. And the appetite for dollars grew even larger during recurrent oil shocks, as rising risk aversion prompted investors to seek safety in U.S. Treasury securities.The U.S. currency was also buoyed by the inclination of oil-exporting countries to invest their sale proceeds in dollar-denominated securities. When they spent the funds on goods, they usually bought American.
But since early 2002, the correlation between oil and the dollar has been negative. When oil rises, the U.S. currency falls.
Shock and Awe - James Howard Kunstler
There is still broad disagreement among commentators as to whether we are headed into a wild inflation or a grim deflation, but the emerging pattern looks to me like a big ocean wave that gathers itself into a high cresting peak and then collapses under its own weight — that is, a technical wild inflation resolving into the low slop of people unable to buy anything. However you cut it, and from whatever angle you look at it, the bottom line will be a steeply lower standard of living for most Americans.
Abu Dhabi's Overseas Energy Play
Abu Dhabi is putting a new twist on the concept of recycling petrodollars by recycling its earnings into Canadian energy properties.
Norway Maintains Oil & Gas Estimates
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate believes there are between 1.6 and 5.8 billion standard cubic meters (Sm3) oil equivalents (o.e.) oil, gas, condensate and NGL left to find on the Norwegian shelf.About 45 per cent of this is liquid and 55 per cent gas. Of the total petroleum volumes about 30 per cent is expected to lie in the Barents Sea (outside area with overlapping claims), 35 per cent in the Norwegian Sea and 35 per cent in the North Sea.
Cries of “O Canada” have not all been of the patriotic kind recently. An independent panel has recommended that Alberta jack up the province’s tax-take from the energy sector. Stocks in Canadian oil majors have plunged as a result.Reports of the sector’s doom are much exaggerated, but it is easy to see why the reaction has been so dramatic. Alberta’s reserves may be second only to Saudi Arabia’s – albeit in the form of oil sands rather than conventional crude. To some, they offer hope of countering the market power of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Law of the Sea on the Move in U.S. Senate
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week digs into the major treaty governing international waters: the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.
One Molecule Could Cure Our Addiction to Oil
On a blackboard, it looks so simple: Take a plant and extract the cellulose. Add some enzymes and convert the cellulose molecules into sugars. Ferment the sugar into alcohol. Then distill the alcohol into fuel. One, two, three, four — and we're powering our cars with lawn cuttings, wood chips, and prairie grasses instead of Middle East oil.Unfortunately, passing chemistry class doesn't mean acing economics. Scientists have long known how to turn trees into ethanol, but doing it profitably is another matter. We can run our cars on lawn cuttings today; we just can't do it at a price people are willing to pay.
Is Global Warming Drowning Africa?
Africa has always been predicted to be the continent that will be worst hit by global warming and climate change. Could those predictions be coming true? Extreme rains and floods have made for a very wet summer in Africa, and there is no end in sight to the downpours that are swallowing towns and forcing over a million to flee their homes in at least 20 countries. Since June, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya have had hundreds of thousands of people uprooted from their homes. Scores have died since. West Africa has seen its worst floods in years, with 300,000 fleeing the earth-colored waters of northern Ghana. Meanwhile, forecasts by African meteorologists say the rains have yet to peak. October may be the worst month to come in this very wet year.
Climate shift is biggest security risk: Australia
Climate change, not war or terrorism, will be the century's biggest security challenge with China unlikely to be able to feed its vast and growing population as a result, Australia's top policeman has warned.
World energy revolution needed for climate: U.S.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday the world needs a revolution on energy that transcends oil, gas and coal to prevent problems from climate change."Ultimately, we must develop and bring to market new energy technologies that transcend the current system of fossil fuels, carbon emissions and economic activity. Put simply, the world needs a technological revolution," Rice told delegates at a special U.N. conference on climate change
Declining Net Oil Exports - A Temporary Decline or a Long Term Trend?
To answer the question in the title of this paper, we believe, for reasons outlined below, that the current decline in world net oil exports is probably the start of a long term trend, as a result of declining production and/or increasing consumption in key exporting countries.
India committed to Iran pipeline despite missing Tehran talks
The three countries are yet to agree on the price of gas that Iran plans to sell to energy-starved India, the oil ministry official, who did not wish to be identified, told AFP."Of course we are committed to the pipeline, there is no doubt about it. But the price is the issue," he said.
BP results set to be 'dreadful'
Tony Hayward, BP's new chief executive, has prepared staff for a far-reaching shake-up of the oil company as he delivered a blunt warning that third-quarter revenues would be "dreadful".Mr Hayward told a staff meeting in Houston he would be announcing a streamlining of the company's organisation next month, the Financial Times has learnt. He said that BP's financial performance was at its lowest since 1992-93.
Record winter heating prices expected
Consumers will likely pay record prices to heat their homes this winter, with a particularly big jump expected in heating oil bills, according to a report to be released today showing how a recent surge in oil prices could hit homeowners.The average U.S. household will pay $992 in heating costs this winter, up $94, or 10.5%, from last winter, says the National Energy Assistance Directors' Association (NEADA), a group of state energy aid officials.
China discovers "new" glaciers on roof of world
China has discovered 42 glaciers on the roof of the world, the Qinghai-Tibet plateau where ice is shrinking due to global warming, and the group could be the biggest of them all, state media said on Tuesday.Beijing has become increasingly concerned about global warming as studies show glaciers retreating on the plateau, where China's largest rivers originate.
|
2007 Houston World Oil Conference October 17-20, 2007
The Association for the Study Of Peak Oil has extended the regular registration period for the World Oil Conference in Houston in October. Fees will increase after Sept. 28. |



A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
source
The week after we saw bank runs in the UK, a measure of calm has returned to the markets thanks to a combination of central bank bailouts, government deposit guarantees and interest rate cuts. For all that heavy intervention, one derivatives market expert warns that we are still at the beginning of the beginning of the credit crunch.
On the Canadian energy scene, the debate over the Alberta oil and gas royalties review continues. Alberta, which has lower royalties than comparable jurisdictions, wants its fair share, but that could affect Ottawa's tax take. Investors concerned about the royalty issue seem keen to extract themselves from tar sands investments. With the Canadian dollar at parity with the US dollar for the first time since 1976, there are concerns about the ability of the Canadian economy to adapt and compete.
Concerns on the climate front center on the potential for methane-powered runaway warming thanks to new research on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The direct relationship between carbon offsets and increasing child labour in the third world is also worth highlighting.
Are we headed for an epic bear market?
Needless to say, regarding the suburban wasteland, in 2006 I was just building on prior work by Jim Kunstler.
http://www.energybulletin.net/19420.html
Published on 21 Aug 2006 by GraphOilogy / Energy Bulletin. Archived on 21 Aug 2006.
Net Oil Exports Revisited
by Jeffrey J. Brown
From today's Housing Bubble Blog:
WT: Just read your paper-good work-I think everyone is waiting with baited breath for the projected numbers. On a related subject, one thing I never see on TOD is a comparison of GDP/oil consumption. I think it is informative for two reasons: 1. it shows how much GDP it is possible to squeeze out of a barrel of oil consumption 2. it implies which countries/economies will survive/thrive in an oil-deprived future. Having said this, I realize there are complicating factors such as overrealiance on coal consumption (China) but anyways here are some quick numbers from CIA Factbook (GDP-PPP/oil consumption-ignore # of zeros)
1. India 1699
2. China 1563
3. UK 1055
4. Germany 993
5. Italy 933
6. Japan 756
7. Russia 698
8. USA 630
9. Mexico 583
10.Canada 515
11.KSA 201
India is producing 8.4 dollars of wealth for every barrel consumed compared to KSA, 3.3 compared to Canada. I think this indicates that the future bidding war for declining exports is going to slam middle class consumers hard in Canada, USA and Japan. It appears that India, China, and some parts of Europe are well positioned for the bidding war.
I don't know if there is any way to do it, but it would be interesting to look at Essential, or non-discretionary, GDP relative to energy consumption. Of course, "essential" is a slippery concept. What is "essential" in the US is a luxury in most of the world.
But I have read, and it seems reasonable, that the majority of Americans live off the discretionary income of other Americans. As American consumers have to pay more for food and energy--and as their access to credit dries up--their discretionary spending will collapse.
One flaw: If my country is too poor to import any oil, and we have none to start with, our GDP-PPP/oil consumption number is going to be infinite. This doesn't mean we are well positioned for the bidding war-- it means we are out of it. And bidding wars for natural resources only work as long as the results of the market equal or better than the results that can be obtained by other means, in some famous German's phrase. In that regard, Chinese armies can walk everywhere in the Middle East. American armies will have to fly in on synfuel.
Ole: Good point-it depends how it plays out. In reality, globalization is about making the world more fun for wealthy Americans, wealthy Chinese, wealthy Indians. If the forces behind increased globalization can hold it together for a while, the wealthy in all these countries will bid against the working and middle class. Globalization wants the oil to flow towards the highest return (India and China)-other interests might work against this "free market globalization" drive.
These numbers are deceptive. China 'squeezes' most of its GDP out of coal.
Alan: To a certain extent. China consumes 24% more coal than the USA. The USA consumes 217% more oil than China. The USA economy is 28% larger (PPP).
Shouldn't that be 280% larger?
Last time I checked the Chinese GDP wasn't 10 trillion.
That being the case, do explain how 1 billion Chinese (and their PPP), who make less than 3000 USD on average, can be expected to outbid those that make 15 times as much on average?
Numbers alone wont matter (IF) there is mass starvation.
Party: Don't complain to me-complain to the CIA Factbook-your taxes pay to keep it updated, not mine.
I'm just pointing out how silly we at TOD can be sometimes.
TOD is great in that it attracts a myriad of people with different ides that all share some common ground 'peak oil'. It's really entertaining to see the various opinions (expressed as facts) that get thrown around. Yet the common denominator of all the 'doomerbation' talks centers on one thing: The USA will be screwed.
Yet magically, places like China will succeed.
The last time I checked, China can not even feed their own population anymore. One of the most common 'facts' expressed here is that in a PO world, the world will not be able to feed its people and 4+ billion will die. Yet this magically won't affect any of those countries that we deem 'better' than the USA.
The same goes for various economies. China and the USA are dependent upon each other. If one goes down, so does the other, as there isn't a consumer bloc large enough to 'absorb' the loss of 300 million happy consumers. Chinas own population doesn't make enough for them to sustain their current production, much less thrive. This also ignores the fact that we repeatedly state that economic growth is directly tied to oil consumption (this trend has vanished in the past 30 years), yet these same countries are expected to outperform the fat old USA, despite this dwindling resource.
Now this isn't an attack on you, BrianT. I'm merely expressing my bemusement at the whole doomer-train.
Excellent right on post PG. Plus china will need to use a significant amount of money to buy imported food (which would be much more expensive in this scenario.
I don't think any "doomer" think China will "succeed."
Beating us in a short-term bidding war for oil is does not mean they will avoid dieoff and other unpleasantness.
But there is a significant group that seems to think that the rich will take the main hit and therefore maybe a powerdown is not such a bad thing. Whereas a more realistic assessment is that the rich will be the least effected and the poor will go to hell.
Maybe so, but they ain't doomers.
To paraphrase from Fight Club, "the rich" need "the poor" to cook their meals, haul their trash, connect their calls, drive their ambulances, and guard them while they sleep.
"The rich" will feel this just as much as anyone else. It will just take longer for the effects to kick in.
By which time the poor will have starved to death after trashing what remained of their natural environments.
Removed
PartyGuy, you draw so much fire here because you keep misrepresenting what people say. "The doomers" have not said that "China will succeed." They say that all oil-dependent countries are screwed. If they tend to focus on the USA being screwed, it's because they're American.
To put it short: they're saying "Oh no, EVEN America is screwed!" not "Oh no, ONLY America is screwed!"
Party: Don't know why you label me a "doomer". I don't have a horse in this race-the numbers are what they are. If the numbers favor the USA, that is just as good. Reality doesn't care what you want or what I want. Flag waving only makes you money when you are selling something.
China can't feed its own population, nitwit??
China's growth in per capita meat, fish, fruit consumption has been greater than anywhere else in the history of the world. Check out historical stats at fao.org.
And think before you open your mouth in future.
10.21 trillion at purchasing power parity ("PPP"), which is of course an estimate. But oil is priced in actual currency, so China doesn't (yet) outbid others for oil, which may be why they use so much coal. However, a huge number of poor people can conceivably outbid a smaller number of richer people up to a point, because some uses for resources are of very high value, while others are not. For example, even fairly poor people will pay, in effect, several dollars per kWH to get their cell phone charged by the guy in their village who owns a couple of solar panels and a rack with some wires and plugs. You'd have to be quite rich to afford that rate for the far larger quantity of electricity required to air-condition the typical incompetently designed American or European building that's still a stifling hotbox even when it's only 65F/18C and cloudy outside.
PG--
I think if you look at per capita oil usage, it might explain why they will be able to outbid us. High cost oil doesn't affect individuals there nearly as much as it does here so a 5:1 income ratio may be insignificant if their per capita oil usage is 10:1 (merely numbers I am inventing--hey, I should work for the government or CERA). I would guess most of their oil usage goes into industry (at least until they become the car economy they are trying to achieve). They also have a tremendous number of dollars to use to buy oil right now (and into the foreseeable future) and can use those to outbid us. We, on the other hand, have a tremendous amount of debt which, when we stop getting access to additional debt, will make it very difficult to buy oil products.
I think if you look at per capita oil usage, it might explain why they will be able to outbid us.
Does any of this matter considering the fact that by 2020 not much oil will be exported anyway (according to WT's ELM)?
Yes, because it means we crash more quickly.
And 700 million Chinese that die form starvation wont matter at all.
just my opinion,, FWIW
The 700,000,000 Chinese will not sit idly as their children die from starvation
they may be killed as they invade neighboring countries seeking food and resources,,but I don't think they will starve to death
I don't know. They are quite used to it.
Being starved that is.
I wonder if the american is used to it.
One thing lacking in the equation is that it is not the singular chinese that will buy the oil, but china as a whole communist country.
Alan and Brian T,
Also, both China and India have substantial proportions of their populations that are still in the pre-fossil fuel village economy. Their actual cash income in the pre-industrialised areas is equivalent to the Village economies of Africa, Latin America and non-industrial parts of the middle east, places like rural Afganistan, the tribal areas of Pakistan, and North and South Yemen.
Brian T., I think this is a very relevant metric, and one that truly needs to be researched and documented. Because, I doubt many people want the economy to collapse to a village economy-the convulsions from that collapse would be the "die off".
The bottom end though would give us a figure of what has to be replaced with renewables to have a prosperous and healthy standard of living. The US and Canada right now use about 25 bbl/year per capita for a wasteful and unsustainable lifestyle. The Europeans are vey comfortable on about 12.5 bbl/year. And somewhere below that, but likely above the Indian or Chinese consumption is a figure where we can all prosper without killing the earth. And thats what we need to shoot for with solar, wind, hydroelectric and nuclear plants.
I also question "no growth" assumptions. We can have all the growth we want in areas that don't use non-renewable resources. How many houses can a person live in at once, how many pair of pants can I wear comfortably? There's already a level of diminishing utility, and we're past that in many areas in the OECD nations. But there's no limit to art or music or even financial analsis.
Bob Ebersole
I don't have correlations by country worked up yet, but I have found good GDP data to do it with, at the site of Angus Maddison, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Groningen University. The GDP numbers (from year 1 to 2003!) are in an Excel spreadsheet, and are all standardized to 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars (???). It's easy to correlate the GDP figures with consumption numbers from BP's Statistical Review Workbook.
I've worked up four global correlations:
The oil/GDP correlation clearly shows the dogleg in 1980-83 when the world figured out how to do more with less.
The most interesting thing to me is how tight the correlation is between total energy use, GDP and population, as shown by the R-sqared values of the linear trendline. I'm pretty sure there's a message in there.
I also have a correlation graph at home that looks at population growth and per capita GDP, and it shows the same tight correlation since 1820. The implication seems to be that increasing per capita GDP (and by extension, per-capita energy use) is the driver behind population growth.
Yes, there is a message in there that many are afraid to see. But that doesn't mean the message is any less real or valid.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Paul - could you put *year* beside select data points on your graphs, and I'm interested mostly in the first. This must have been graphed before, anyone know sources of comparable graphs?
Here's a slightly more interesting graph of total energy vs. world GDP. You can follow along the years very easily because the rise in both energy and GDP in each series is monotonic.
You can see that before and after the inflection point of the Iran-Iraq war the correlations are very tight, but the slope changes dramatically. I show the calculated GDP energy intensity for each time period - the world made an impressive improvement, virtually doubling the energy efficiency over the four years from 1980 to 1983.
Can we do that again over the time period from Peak Oil until Peak Energy? How much of the available efficiency have we already extracted from the global system? There is without doubt a lot that can be done in the OECD, but the world-wide picture may not be quite so rosy.
BTW - my assumption is that since the GDP figures are given in constant 1990 dollars, inflationary effects have been factored out.
You could just as easily plot 'number of computers' compared to 'prosperity' and get similar graphs. Statistics are there for the statistician to manipulate to fit is case. Apparently even the MSM knows that the US gets more out of a barrel of oil now than we did back in 1970s. As that trend continues, oil will continue to 'decouple' from economic growth.