 | At $100 Oil - What Can the Scientist Say to the Investor? | The Oil Drum | What is your environmental footprint? |  |
DrumBeat: January 5, 2008
Posted by Leanan on January 5, 2008 - 10:17am
Topic: Miscellaneous
US$100 oil, production concerns renew interest in peak oil theory
The rise of oil prices and production concerns is renewing interest in the "peak oil" theories which originated in 1956 when the US geoscientist Marion King Hubbert correctly forecast that US oil production would peak in about 1970. The “Hubbert curve” is a totem of peak oil theorists.The peak oil theorists argue that production has not increased in line with demand simply because it cannot. Oil reserves are finite. Many of the world's biggest fields are already suffering declining output, and that could accelerate, they argue.
Opponents of Peak oil say that oil output is not just a function of geology. “Surface” factors such as Opec, geopolitics, "rate of substitution" , new technology, financial returns and others , have a huge impact.
US$100 a barrel is a real incentive for oil producers to increase production, if they can. The near future should tell us whether global production has peaked.
The Top Energy Stories to Watch in 2008
Say goodbye to the year that brought a 65 percent run-up in the price of a barrel of oil and a Nobel Peace Prize to punctuate the message of the heralds of climate disaster. It was a year that moved Washington to enact the first increase in automobile fuel economy standards in 32 years and prompted the company blamed for killing the electric car, General Motors, to pledge to bring a breakthrough battery-powered vehicle to market. And 2007 brought new hope for big-scale energy from the sun, wind, and ocean waves, even while Asian economic growth drove coal power to greater dominance over the globe.This year, however, is shaping up to be an even more momentous time for the struggle over fossil fuel. Here are some top energy stories to watch in 2008.
Data Center Power Demands Raising Fears of an Impending Crisis for Thousands of Major Corporations
The rapidly-growing electricity requirements of data centers around the world threaten to cause a crisis for thousands of major corporations that depend on the instantaneous flow of digital information.There are already problems in London and Dublin, where data centers are operating virtually at their peak capacity design level. Problems are starting to develop in Frankfurt and Munich. By 2011, according to a report by Gartner Inc., a technology advisory firm serving many of the world’s biggest companies, more than 70% of U.S. enterprise data centers will face “tangible disruptions.”
US presidential candidates and their views on scientific issues
"Science felt that it was important to find out what the presidential candidates think about issues that may not be part of their standard stump speeches but that are vital to the future of the country--from reducing greenhouse gas emissions to improving science and math education,” said Jeffrey Mervis, deputy news editor, who oversees election coverage for the magazine's news department. “We hope that the coverage may also kick off a broader discussion of the role of science and technology in decisions being made in Washington and around the world.”
Peak
Oil and the Australian Army (PDF)
The implications of the peaking in global oil production are enormous. Predictions vary from a global economic recession to the collapse of modern industrial societies. Despite this, there is relatively little emphasis placed on preparing for the onset of Peak Oil by governments, the media, businesses or individuals, with some notable exceptions. In the event of an early peak, this will be to society’s great detriment and is something that should be of grave concern to all.
Matt Simmons: If Demand Rises 1.5% to 2%, Global Economic Growth May Stall
If oil demand in 2008 rises 1.5% to 2% above 2007’s level, global economic growth will stall unless oil production quickly climbs into record territory. That’s the dire outlook from Matthew R. Simmons, chairman of the Houston-based energy investment banking firm Simmons & Company International.
As energy prices surge, FOREIGN energy giants accused of treating UK like Treasure Island
"They raid the UK's North Sea for gas supplies when it is cheap but then levy punitive prices when demand is higher."This move suggests something is very badly wrong, not only in the GB energy market but in Europe as well. There is no actual shortage of gas across Europe, we have new pipelines to bring that gas to the UK, greater storage capacity and terminals to bring in supertankers full of liquefied natural gas."
Cleric Calls for Energy Saving in Iran
Tehran's interim Friday Prayers leader Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani called on Iranians to watch out for any wasteful use of the country's heavily subsidized energy supplies, cautioning that Iranians are the only world nation consuming cheap energy supplies extravagantly.
China: Fight inflation with targeted subsidies
Chinese cabbage, a staple vegetable in North China, sells for about 0.4 yuan per kilogram at the wholesale market in Zhengzhou, the provincial capital. But it is not unusual nowadays to hear urban consumers complain that the price has risen too much. At supermarkets in major cities, the cabbage can be found for 2 yuan per kilogram. So why are vegetable growers having such a hard time?Rising fuel costs are the main culprit. According to the local newspaper, the price of diesel climbed from 3.2 yuan per liter in 2005 to 5.2 yuan per liter last year. The increase in transportation costs has made it a profitless endeavor to sell Chinese cabbage for 0.18 yuan kilogram in Xiayi County as well as 0.40 yuan kilogram in Zhengzhou.
Uganda: Fuel Prices Remain High, Petrol Still Scarce
Fuel pump prices remained high yesterday even after an estimated 36 fuel tanks arrived in Kampala on Thursday evening. Fuel stations in and around Kampala were still selling a litre of petrol fuel at Shs6,000 up from Shs2,300 a week ago.Fuel was also being sold on the black market, especially in the areas of Kisenyi and Bunga at as high as Shs10,000 per litre after some dealers hoarded the little available fuel to make abnormal profits. Fuel station owners attributed the rising cost of fuel to the shortage in supply and the alleged high transport costs. The Country Manager of Shell Uganda Limited, Mr Ivan Kyayonka, said the consumers should report any dealer who charges prices that are different from what is displayed on the boards.
Kenya: Food, Fuel Crisis Looms Over Post-Poll Violent Protests
The post-election violence has triggered a humanitarian crisis in several towns across the country.
Pakistan: ‘Shortage of water, furnace oil, gas mars power generation’
The Peshawar Electric Supply Company (Pesco) said on Friday due to severe water shortage in the Tarbela, Mangla and Warsak reservoirs, shortage of furnace oil and limited gas supply to some of the important power plants, the power generation capability of Wapda decreased drastically.
Pakistan: No letup in power, gas load-shedding in NWFP
There was no letup in the painful long hours of unannounced power load-shedding on Friday and protests remained the prominent feature of the day in most parts of the NWFP and provincial metropolis.The electricity outages that hit most parts of the province for the last one week continued for several hours Friday, too, leading to public protests in the city and elsewhere in the province and its adjacent tribal areas.
Pakistan: Looming crisis of power shortage
During the recent violence, all state companies have suffered losses through damage, led by the railways and followed by WAPDA. The government is required to shell out more money for power expansion while it is unable to pay the bills for the sale of oil whose domestic price it has kept frozen since one year. The oil bill, which used to be a billion dollars a decade ago, is today $3.7 billion. The economy demands that power be kept cheap to enable exports to catch up with imports. The cotton-related sector which contributes single-handedly to over 60 percent of exports, is in deep depression, mainly because of the high infrastructure cost, and is now hamstrung by closures following load-shedding.
Pakistan: Load-shedding affects export orders
Quaid-e-Azam Industrial Estate (QIE) President Mian Nauman Kabir has urged the government to take urgent measures to overcome the energy deficit as it is affecting the whole economy.Chairing a meeting of the QIE board of management on Friday, he said unannounced load-shedding was hitting the industrial production hard. The country had not been achieving the export target for the last two years and if the situation remained the same, it would be very difficult to meet the target set for the current fiscal year, he added.
Pemex declares maintenance tender void
BNamericas reported that Mexican state oil company Pemex's exploration and production division, PEP, declared void an international tender (18575108-043-07) for five-year offshore maintenance works, according to federal procurement Web site Compranet. No reason was given for the decision.
Pemex Reopens Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil Terminals
Petroleos Mexicanos, the third- largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S., reopened its crude loading terminals in the Gulf of Mexico after heavy rains and winds forced them to close starting on Jan. 1.
Solar systems arrive in stores
A joint program has offered residential solar-power systems made by British petroleum company BP at The Home Depot stores in California, New Jersey and Long Island, New York since 2004. The program recently expanded to Home Depot stores in other areas of the country where incentives have made solar electric power more accessible and affordable, like Denver and Boulder, Colorado; Austin, Texas and Arizona.
California's data challenges EPA
California's ambitious plan to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions of cars and trucks would be more than twice as effective in reducing such gases by 2016 than the new federal fuel-economy law, the state said as part of a new legal broadside against the US government this week.
Iran says many OPEC states can't raise output
Many OPEC states are now producing as much oil as they can, limiting the ability of the cartel to raise output even if such a decision was made to help cool crude prices, an Iranian oil official was quoted on Saturday as saying.
OPEC president sees oil prices rising in Q1
OPEC president Chakib Khelil said on Saturday he expected oil prices to keep rising during the first quarter of this year before stabilising in the following quarter. "The rise is likely to continue until the end of the first quarter 2008 and will stabilise in the second quarter," Khelil, who is also Algerian Energy and Mines Minister, told the Algerian official news agency APS.He linked the steady rise of oil prices to "political tension in Pakistan, escalading violence in Nigeria and decline of oil inventories in the United States", APS added.
Qatar oil min says markets well-supplied - paper
OPEC is not behind a recent rise in oil prices as markets are well-supplied and the price is purely driven by speculators, a Kuwaiti newspaper quoted the Qatari oil minister as saying."Investment funds and speculators are behind the recent hike," Abdullah al-Attiyah told al-Jarida newspaper in comments published on Friday.
"The market is not suffering from any luck in supplies, and there is no disturbance in producers' regions."
Crude Oil Targets $125, Global Production Future Shows Diffuse Picture
In the coming days, it will become clear whether the market will also react to negative news coming from OPEC’s largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia - the country indicated that the planned start up of the Khursaniyah oil field is being delayed. Officials of the Saudi state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco have informed the press that it is in the process of bringing on stream its 500,000 bpd Khursaniyah oil field, which was originally due for completion in late 2007, but no specific dates have been given for a new start-up date of production, and the market is eagerly awaiting the success.
Energy crisis? Not on U.S. campaign trail
It has been called the 800-pound gorilla but it's getting scant attention in the U.S. election. And yet it could well be one of the most pressing issues facing the next winner of the Oval Office.
What to do when oil hits $100 a barrel
Congress must be bolder in forcing oil substitutes for transportation. It did that for electric utilities.
President Bush signed into law a bipartisan bill Congress approved last month requiring the first large increase in automobile fuel standards since 1975. Under the law, automakers must improve their fleet-wide average to 35 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2020, a 40 percent increase over the current average of 25 mpg. The law also had new energy efficiency standards for appliances, lighting and government and commercial buildings.At the same time, however, the administration is standing in the way of California and other states that want to adopt stricter standards.
Medicine at the crossroads of energy and climate change
Throughout society, the meaning and scale of peak oil is misconstrued as a temporary concern over “energy prices” or “addiction” to foreign oil. Here lies our predicament: not only are these health dangers, they could undermine our ability to sustain health care systems.
Kenya: Refinery Ignores Turmoil
Operations at the Kenya Petroleum Oil Refineries Limited (KPRL) have not been interrupted by the political violence that has led to destruction of property.The refinery's General Manager, Mr John Mruttu, said fuel stocks at the facility are sufficient for this time of the year.
Energy companies ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil Corp. reached an agreement with the state ensuring there will be adequate supplies of natural gas for years to come in southcentral Alaska, Gov. Sarah Palin announced Thursday.
New Brunswick company searches for oil with MRI
New Brunswick may only have a few of its own oil wells but it's developed technology to speed up the search for black gold around the world.
"You never know you're at peak until after the fact," says Jeff Rubin, chief economist of CIBC World Markets.But with 18 months behind him, Rubin is increasingly convinced the days of easy, plentiful oil are gone. Even if December data show record production in the fourth quarter of 2007, there's growing consensus that, at the very least, oil supply has reached a plateau.
"I just don't think we're going to see increases in conventional oil production any more," Rubin says. "I think (peak oil) is here."
"What Gazprom is proposing is mind-boggling," the Nigerian oil official told the Financial Times. "They're talking tough and saying the west has taken advantage of us in the last 50 years and they're offering us a better deal ... They are ready to beat the Chinese, the Indians and the Americans."
If you write about energy, apparently nothing can fill up your E-mail inbox like oil briefly hitting the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time. Here is a sampling of the reactions to the crude oil price run-up that I've been urged to note...
Iran to open oil bourse: Minister of Economy
Iranian Minister of Economy and Finance Davoud Danesh-Ja'fari said that Iran will open oil bourse during the Ten-Day-Dawn ceremonies, marking the 29th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, IRNA reported.
United Airlines leads the way for British airlines to increase fares
British Airways passengers face the prospect of further fare increases this new year, after United Airlines set the lead for the industry by raising its prices to cover the soaring cost of fuel.
BA reprimanded over claim that new runway will reduce emissions
British Airways has been reprimanded for attempting to manipulate a government consultation on the expansion of Heathrow by making false claims about the environmental impact.The Advertising Standards Authority has written to BA ordering it to withdraw a claim, in an e-mail to customers by Willie Walsh, the chief executive, that a new runway would reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
It looks like the Toronto Star has accepted peak oil and the sooner date too. They have been mentioning it a lot lately and this article is quite transparent. and I think Jeff Rubin at CIBC is at least a lurker here if not a contributor.
I think the Main Stream Media is going to have to acknowledge Peak Oil or they will lose even more credibility. (Not that my rather low opinion of the MSM is going to change! How can they even mention the 'elections' in Mexico without using a word like 'contested' or more accurately 'rigged' or 'stolen?' ) Gas prices are rising and the MSM hasn't exactly explained why. Once some real news does start to filter out to the masses, what's going to happen? Gas and diesel hoarding? More SUVs that 'accidentally' catch fire? I'd guess that the future MSM descriptions of what's happening will be boring and misleading, with the usual Yerginesque technocornucopia. I hope the internet doesn't turn into Propaganda Central-I need *real* news to plan ahead!
The MSM has no credibility left to lose, at least, for those with half a brain.
'Once some real news does start to filter out to the masses, what's going to happen?'
The masses are going to be pointed in the direction of the sacraficial lamb. Said lamb to be designated by TPTB. If we look in the mirror we might begin to bleat. :)
They (TPTB) will prop up their own to the bitter end -- at taxpayer expense:
http://www.reuters.com/article/blogBurst/investing?type=hotStocksNews&w1...
The news is there if you look for it. But what to do? Buy gold? Buy Euros? Start an intentional community? Pray a lot? The reality is that TPTB have all the power. We can go along with them silently or bleating (that's a choice) or we can create some sort of alternate reality in the interstices of their universe.
If TPTB had all the power, they wouldn't bother with the MSM. At least I hope so.
What to do? If you are forced to play a card game with a bunch of cheaters, the best thing is to gamble as little as possible, and don't play the game as often as you can get away with it. I may not be able to avoid paying taxes (and internet fees:), but I can sure avoid buying what little I *need* from soulless corporations. Go, Craigslist!
I wasn't born knowing about Peak Oil and the whoring that goes along with the MSM. So, to all you 'sheeple' who were bleating out the truth, I owe an infinite debt that can never be repaid. This talking monkey knows he owes...
Of course they bother with MSM -- it's their mouthpiece. Most people do what the TeeVee tells them to do.
It certainly is possible to throw off the blinders -- at least to some degree. It is more difficult to withdraw from a world that is defined by TPTB. You can own your own land -- sort of. But you will still have to pay taxes, or they take it from you. And taxes have to be paid in legal tender -- their money.
I agree that minimizing participation by using Craigslist and the local thrift stores, and growing whatever food you can and walking (or cycling) whenever possible are good things. If everyone did it, it would diminish the power of TPTB. But it might all just collapse back into feudalism.
Just who is this guy "MSM"? Is Reuters part of the MSM? Reuters said this morning:
Now that statement is not exactly a "not to worry" line. There is no official MSM line! MSM is made up of tens of thousands of people manning thousands of media outlets. MSM reports the news that they think their readers, watchers or listeners will be interested in.
MSM is basically a mirror of society! MSM caters to the whims of society. They know that society is hungry for news. True, they hope that news is all good news but occasionally the news is bad. MSM ignores bad news only at its peril. If one MSM outlet fails to report bad news and is scooped by another MSM outlet, then that failing outlet loses readers or viewers.
People, for God's sake, stop blaming the media for not reporting the news the way you wish it would be reported. The problem is not the media. The problem, the problem of the peak oil unawareness, is not because the media refuses to report it. The problem is that people do not want to hear it. And MSM caters to what people want to hear.
If there is an event or a statement by OPEC or whomever, whose by its nature is an event, then MSM reports it, good or bad. But if it is only speculation then MSM will print the speculation that its readers wish to hear. I.E. Fox gives right wing speculation, CNBC gives economic speculation that is mostly optimistic and so on. Again, MSM is basically a mirror of the population, or more directly a mirror of the type of audience of which it caters to.
There are no bad news stations or stations that cater to doomers. The world is a cornucopian and the media caters to cornucopians.
Ron Patterson
Hey, the MSM may have ignored peak oil, but they've done a great job reporting about the trials and tribulations of Britney Spears. Last night on the radio, I heard all about her latest drug overdose, hospitalization and child custody battle. And did you know that her 16-year-old sister (Jamie Lynn) is pregnant? What could be more important?
Jamie Lynn Spears' TV show cancelled by Nickelodeon
Get your priorities straight.
do go on!
Please tell me more
Yeah, as Ron stated - the mainstream media will provide what the customers want. Its good business to do so.
WE are the minority.
What percentage of the US are scientists and engineers? I mean REAL ones, not those who just hold the title for a paycheck. The real engineers and scientists are those who live, eat, and breathe science because its their life ambition, just as some people can't see ( and God forbid, record ) enough sports events.
We are ( well, at least I know I am ) seen as social misfits because of our love of discovery and creating new things, and often not compatible with management because of our stubbornness - yet we are that way because we relate to the stubbornness of the laws of physics which assure us that what we design will work.
We are a minority. A lot of us aren't even gainfully employed because of interpersonal issues. We do not control as much spending as those who have better personal skills - dealing with people instead of technical arcana.
Megawatts and BTU's are things of us techies, Dollars and Euro are things of the people. The mainstream media, knowing who controls dollars, caters to the people. Sites like TOD, catering to the interests of the techies, does just that.
The people will take interest in Megawatts and BTU's when they get cold, dark, and hungry, just as engineers and scientists take interest in dollars when the rent comes due or the pizza parlor presents the tab.
But as long as all it takes to satisfy creature comforts is flipping open the cellphone, no one is gonna take much interest in the technical support infrastructure the powers our life.
No one inspects the water pump or spark plugs on their car. They won't get any attention until they fail.
I don't see our Congress or corporations paying our energy situation much heed until the lights go out. Then it will be an all out effort to get it fixed - same as with a water pump in a car.
I believe we still think all we have to do is go up the chain of command until we hit someone with enough signature authority to make it happen, irregardless of geological constraint ( geez, just what is a geological constraint? Speak English, dammit! Now, how about those Cowboys? )
A lot of us aren't even gainfully employed because of interpersonal issues.
You're describing Asperger's Syndrome, a mild form of autism that leaves adults brilliant in some ways, generally in a few very specialized areas (circumscribed interests), and lonely and underemployed because they are perceived as "odd". There does seem to be a bit of that going on around here :-)
Yes, SCT, I have been diagnosed as having Asperger's syndrome. I don't see it in a negative light at all. The managers hired by the Executives saw me as "lacking in people skills", but I considered myself as "focused on the problem".
I feel I can make anything work. The biggest problem is in getting permission to do it.
My sentiments are that as long as corporations are flooded with so much money as to finance tiers over tiers of management "valves", there isn't any need for "pumps" like me. There is already plenty of pressure in the line.
Control seemed far more important than Innovation or Production, and was paid commensurately. The problem for me became acute when the company started getting huge cash inflows from stockholder investments, not sales.
I would have thought a company would want to keep people who had the "disability" of finding enjoyment only through their work and would take no interest in all the social and sports crap. To me, getting rid of this kind of people would be akin to me removing the chunks of carbide off my saw blade.
But then, I have to realize an Executive saw is to look at, not to saw with. A satin color-coordinated finish goes a lot further in the executive boardroom than hard sharp teeth. If its MY blade, I want the hard sharp teeth.
You will get no argument from me on this, my face blind circumscribed interest having brother :-) I have a lighter burden than most, with the social interaction concerns, but I am blessedly not clumsy as some are. Much study in the realm of accessing cues, transformational grammar, and so forth have positioned me to "pass" among the neurotypical - I've massaged myself from downright weird to merely eccentric :-)
I feel your frustration ... I've not had a "job" for almost nine years and while I do miss a paycheck every two weeks I do not miss people with a scanty grasp on cause and effect making bad decisions on Tuesday and then blaming me for the outcome on Thursday :-)
You were shunned because you are weird. I intend no disrespect here :-) Your choices are to work around the fact that you perceive the world differently, or to find a role where your strengths are strengths.
If some area of renewable energy has tickled your fancy you should have no trouble migrating into the field. I have found the barrier to entry to be essentially nonexistent.
Thanks for your honesty. Its refreshing.
I knew I was weird in elementary school. By junior high, I had already built myself a stereo system better than any my friends had, yet I did not pay a dime for it. It was all made from parts the neighbors had junked when they placed old TV's by the curb. Horizontal output tubes make pretty decent audio power tubes! But I didn't have the foggiest idea of how to play baseball, neither did I know anything about football, other than it was some game they played in the stadium.
My latest experimental fancy is lithium bromide absorption refrigeration. I worked with this for several years at an oil refinery (it kept our LNG tanks cold using waste process heat).
If I were more independently wealthy, I would just build an apartment complex, and rent most of it out to tenants while I got the solar powered heating-ventilation-air conditioning (HVAC) running. But I do not have that kind of money.
I need at least 30 feet vertical drop for the gravitic vacuum pump and certain ways of laying out the garden so I can use the leaves of plants as evap coolers much like one uses wood slats in a cooling water tower ( I think cooling water towers are ugly, but I think plants are very pretty, so I want plants ). This necessitates my designing the apartment complex from the ground up as a custom build.
Being I can personally build any interfaces I need to the motors, valves, sensors, whatever, build and program the microcontrollers that run it, I consider the whole thing quite do-able. Its stuff like building construction and welding the collector assemblies, generator, evaporator, and absorber I need help with.
Physically, I am getting old, and I just can not handle the heavy stuff anymore. Or tight schedules. Hell, for all I know I may pass on before I get it done. But I would have more fun building something than sitting on my arse waiting for God to call me.
I am not saying my first one would be perfect, but it would give me empirical data for making the next one better, as well as give me a lot better idea as to the economic feasibility of mass producing the design.
I am getting too old to beg people in power to let me do things. I see where what I consider rather useless people getting paid enormous salaries, but I am told that I have no people skills and need to work elsewhere.
I think the world needs solar powered HVAC a helluva lot more than the world needs what the highly paid guy did, but then that's my point of view.
Control expertise should be in demand - you just need a manufacturer in desperate need :-) I can think of a few offhand right around here and the nation must be brimming with them.
It is good to have weird scrounging skills in times like these ...
A very insightful post Hardhat.
I enjoyed it greatly and can identify with it when I was gainfully employed and roamed thru the world of business.
A short story then.
My office(not a cubicle and it had a real door) was right across the hall from my manager's manager. Each day there was an almost parade of asskissers walking by his door(and mine therefore) with empty portfolios under arms and slowing down as they approached said door.
They would then hope to be recognized and shout inane greetings,mostly containing the words "Super, Fantastic, Awesome and so forth". Shouting these greetings to the said manager and thereby having him register the image of their appearance and demeanor. Naturally he loved the 'strokes' and attention as well as they did.
Truth is they were deadwood. Useless clone drones of the hive but they amazingly advanced up the food chain. They knew absolutely zero technical skills but relied on bullshit and mingling as well as massive ass sucking in order to advance...
And you know what? They got it. Us real techies were let behind as Not People Friendly and not having good interpersonal skills.
I started noticing this action around about the early 80's and maybe somewhat in the very late 90's..It concided with the sudden rush of yuppies jogging around the burbs and becoming conspicuous consumers plus being droids of the worst sort with their smary wifes named Muffy and them being mostly Lances.
IMO the ranks of mgmt were slowly infiltrated with these pod-people in that time frame and mgmt recognizing their own kind began to futher infiltrate the pod-folks into their ranks because of several reasons.
One being that they were very easily controlled. Another was having hired them the pods having no sense of morality would make good spies for spying out the worker bees and tattling on them to the said hiring mgr.
They loved to go to after work gatherings at the tavern or cocktail lounge and drink disguised drinks(7-up,etc) and wait for the drunk bees to make bad statements and thereby come off looking like saints having scored endless points meanwhile to all observers,,those mostly being pods just like them who enjoyed a good podfest.
These pods have now taken over all of mgmt at almost all levels , there being no real managers who will not kneel before the all powerful ego that they posses and cannot live with out the daily adulation and bowing and asskissing otherwise they would have to admit that they are totally useless worthless bottom feeders of the worst ilk of the lowest forms of life in the deepest cesspools of the planet. Sucking up lifesustaining filth and scum so they can continue to destroy what we once enjoyed as fruitful and beneficial employment.
They have sucked the systems dry as an empty eggshell and continue to feast off the lifeblood of the ones who actually still to some degree make the system work.
airdale-my rant for the day...
If you've not done so already, may I suggest a read of Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged?
The woman was a sexually compulsive sociopath, but she did have some points in spite of that. I find Nathaniel Branden's Judgement Day a fine balance to and explanation of Rand's thinking, putting a more human face on objectivism.
I read an article once about GTE, published in Physics Today http://www.physicstoday.org/pt/vol-54/iss-2/p38.html
on the difference between first, second, and third generation companies.
I would like to add a fourth and fifth generation company description to the list.
First generation is product engineers. They make something new.
Second generation is process engineers. They make it better, faster, cheaper, smaller, lighter, more reliable, whatever.
Third generation is accountants. They make it cheaper by shutting down R+D.
Fourth generation is marketing. They make it in more colors.
Fifth generation is political. They make it with government assistance.
Which reminds me of Richard Feynman's account of the Challenger disaster. Most people remember him dunking one of the rubber ring seals in a glass of ice water and demonstrating its stiffness. But his explanation of the problem was that, as NASA had progressed from the Mercury and Apollo programs to the day-to-day operation of a fleet of shuttles, its organization gradually changed. There was a gradual infiltration of bureaucrats, whose careers depended not on scientific knowledge and skill with real materials, but rather on influencing other people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman#Challenger_disaster
Feynman's heavily redacted account became a minor appendix to the commission's report:
Thanks, Airdale
Your timeframe mirrors mine.
As a child of the 60's, we actually got to build things, and took great pride in knowing exactly how it worked.
I think the problem arose when we began importing our technology, and no one here even knew how to fix it, much less design it. It is so cheap that one simply throws it away, often when the battery dies.
Its gonna be scary in a way to live in a society where everyone has been accustomed to a steady influx of stuff and the music stops. In a way, I am comforted that I know exactly how my stuff (albeit it is old) works, and I can maintain it.
I have stockpiled lots of electronic parts and test equipment which was made in the days that stuff could be repaired. I could maintain electronic controls at nearly any industrial plant should the need arise - fixing at the component level if necessary should spare circuit assemblies be unavailable, but so far, I have not seen any company who needs that kind of support.
Besides, I am getting older. My ways of doing things are analog design, assembler, C++, DOS, and device drivers.
I'd love to work with a Linux guru a bit and learn to do my stuff under Linux GUI, but who does bit banging anymore?
Companies seem to view knowledge of their stuff unimportant as long as they have vendor support. They do not know how their BMW works either - they have mechanics on call.
Being a loner, its in my "genes" to have an ardent desire to know how my stuff works so no-one can hold me hostage to my ignorance.
Mr. hardhat Sir,
I am more or less enjoying my 22nd year as a unix bigot. If you care to plunge in drop me a note sct at strandedwind dot org - I know of a very busy Linux users group mailing list, perfect for helping one climb the learning curve ...
-SCT
Thanks SCT!
I have copied your post so I can get back to you when I complete a brick project here at the house.
I know a little about the Microsoft MFC and API, but since WIN95, a lot of stuff became useless. I figured the Gnome and KDE GUI programming would be similar. Hopefully if I invested my time in learning Linux, it would not be rendered useless by the next release. Keeping up with Microsoft and all their proprietary stuff is like chasing wind. I can not keep my stuff working across OS revisions.
Especially when I am no longer employed and can no longer afford the Microsoft support subscriptions. I felt like a biological bug manufactured at Synthetic Genomics - specially designed to require some nutrient that only Synthetic Genomics provided so the I could not survive by myself. It was obvious to me Microsoft was doing the same thing to Business, by making sure they were absolutely dependent on Microsoft Support.
I wish I had gotten into Unix a lot earlier. 22 years of it is quite a bit of experience. I betcha you know your box as well as I know my car - we've had 'em about the same length of time. There is so much peace of mind in knowing your box, and knowing its not full of virus, bots, worms, keyloggers, rootkits, or other destructive and untrustworthy vermin.
Having your box do what you tell it to do is priceless.
-Steve
And even more, being able to look at the source code to see exactly how it is done. I always appreciated the modular design of Unix, but Linux allowed me to open up the box and see how it was all put together internally, and build on it. It's beautiful stuff, unfortunately it's a beauty very hard to share with others.
There is no need at all for you to go graphical - I find plenty to do with the text based command line tools. If it weren't for Flickr I do believe I could happily use a text terminal as we did twenty years ago.
Given what I know of you I suspect you're a natural for Jeffrey E.F. Friedel's Mastering Regular Expressions. Regular expressions, or regex, is a powerful text matching system found in all programming/scripting languages used today.
If you really want to do things graphically the PHP language has a large following and the barrier to entry is fairly low. I myself am a bit of an old dog, so its perl for most things and I'm trying to learn the much simpler sed/awk combination(embarrassing to admit). If you've done C++ you will be able to get some basic productivity going with a tool like perl in a day or two ...
In 1995 I bought a computer with the intention of blowing away the M$ software that came with it and installing something else as a learning exercise. I chose Slackware, and have piddled around with Linux ever since. I eventually settled on Debian.
sounds like you must have worked for the same damn company as i. oh................and another thing, my gf's name is muffy.
Alot of us aren't even gainfully employed because of interpersonal issues. We do not control as much spending as those who have better personal skills - dealing with people instead of technical arcana.
Then there are the far larger number of us who aren't gainfully employed (in science) any more.
Our funding is evaporating faster than North Ghawar, and we can't magically get the 1 funding opportunity out of 25 applications even though our "interpersonal issues" are just fine.
That's America, baby, love it or leave it. New Zealand needs engineers.
By the way, irregardless is not a word. Speak English, dammit!
Mea Culpa!
I had to go to the dictionary on that one - irregardless - and you are right!
Thanks!
Thanks for the posts hardhat.
Your solar HVAC peaked my curiosity- I'm in a community college program ATM - so I googled it.
I think this is a likely direction technology will eventually go.
Right on HardHat,
I guess people just want to have a nice smooth day, everyday. No one to ruffle feathers or make a scene about value or quality to the customer. That just gives everyone heartburn. And it makes those who don't know anything feel stupid. I think it's the nature of a corporation. I believe once a company, or any group gets beyond 150 people or so in size, the interrelationships start to get weaker and more abstract and this eventually leads to some of what you describe.
Anyway, thanks for your post.
-Don
I suspect neither Britney nor her sister know how this pregnancy thing happens.