DrumBeat: February 9, 2008
Posted by Leanan on February 9, 2008 - 9:56am
Topic: Miscellaneous
French Petroleum Institute Forecasts 'Easing' of Oil Prices for 2008
The French Petroleum Institute (IFP) has predicted an "easing" of crude oil prices in 2008, or a significant oil decrease in case of economic recession world, after the barrel reached 100 U.S. dollars in early January, according to reports.Addressing a press conference Thursday, IFP president Olivier Appert said oil production is expected to increase in 2008, "because the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) will revive production projects which were delayed in 2006 and 2007."
Has Earth entered a new epoch? What geologists think
Geologists wonder if they should add a new epoch to the geological time scale. They call it the Anthropocene – the epoch when, for the first time in Earth's history, humans have become a predominant geophysical force. Naming such a new epoch would also recognize that humans now share responsibility with natural forces for the state of our planet's ecological environment.
EU gas supplies at risk if Ukraine does not settle bill with Russia
Gas supplies to the EU could be at risk again next week after a warning from Russia that it would reduce the supply to Ukraine on Monday unless Kiev settled its debts. The Russian state energy firm Gazprom says Ukraine owes it $1.5bn (£770m) for gas from Russia and central Asia.
Scrapping Gazprom project will delay, but may not kill Quebec LNG venture: analysts
CALGARY - Russian energy monopoly OAO Gazprom's scrapping of a $3.5-billion liquefied natural gas plant in the Baltic Sea will likely delay - but won't outright kill - a regasification plant in Quebec planned by two of Canada's biggest energy companies, Petro-Canada and TransCanada Corp., analysts say.
Indonesia's Pertamina Favored to Take Over Natuna Gas Project
The government will offer the Natuna D-Alpha block project to state-owned oil and gas company PT Pertamina after talks on renewal of contract of ExxonMobil ended in deadlock.
Resentment runs high toward the United States and the role it plays in sensitive questions such as the privatization of Mexico's Mexico's National Petroleum Company.
Venezuela oil minister says Exxon trying to create anxiety
CARACAS (MarketWatch) -- Venezuela's oil minister Rafael Ramirez accused Exxon Mobil Corp. of trying to frighten the nation by securing a court-ordered freeze of more than $12 billion of the state oil company's worldwide assets as part of the legal fight stemming from a nationalization drive last year."It was a move designed to create anxiety in the country. If they thought that we would be scared, they were wrong," he said in a televised national address.
Nigeria: Senate Orders Arrest of NNPC Boss
The Senate Committee on Petroleum (upstream sector) yesterday issued a warrant of arrest for the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petro-leum Corporation (NNPC), Engineer Abubakar Yar' Adua for allegedly frustrating the committee while carrying out its oversight functions.Yar' Adua was also said to have made himself unavailable when the committee visited the corporation's headquarters.
U.S. House Appropriators Press Kempthorne on Oil and Gas Program
House appropriators grilled Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne yesterday over the department's handling of oil and gas development on federal lands, particularly with regards to royalties and oversight.Members of the House Interior Appropriations Subcommittee also expressed their reservations yesterday over President Bush's proposed fiscal 2009 budget for the Interior Department, questioning the administration's priorities and charging that several agency activities would be grossly underfunded.
Iran has 90 billion barrels oil reserves in Persian Gulf
The managing director of the National Iranian Continental Shelf Oil Company said on Saturday that Iran's oil reserve in Persian Gulf is estimated at 90 billion barrels."With new oil discovery in the region, the reserve may amount to 100 billion barrels," said Mahmoud Zirakchian Zadeh.
Arctic Oil & Gas: 25% of World's Reserves Beneath Arctic Seabed
Arctic Oil & Gas Corp. has provided shareholders with new data and commentary on the Arctic Commons.Arctic Oil and Gas Corp. and its partners made an international Arctic Commons hydrocarbons claim on May 9th 2006 with the United Nations and the five Arctic countries. This claim is for the exclusive exploitation, development, marketing and extraction rights to the oil and gas resources of the seafloor and subsurface contained within the "Arctic Claims"; an area of the Arctic Ocean that has no country's claims to it; or simply, the open area in between all of the Arctic-bordering countries.
Fuel Prices Increase in Panama
Panama, Feb 8 (Prensa Latina) The combustibles most used by the Panamanian population - gasoline, diesel and propane went up in price again Friday, as per the government's Hydrocarbon General Office that periodically revises prices, but "does not mandate" them for distributors.The previous readjustment was made before Carnival on February 1, when gasoline price was reduced 19 cents allowing more than 40,000 cars to make trips from the capital to the interior of the country.
Chinese Localities Urged to Strengthen Management of Power Consumption
Beijing (Xinhua) - The State Council's emergency command centre for coal, electricity, fuel, and transportation and disaster relief said on 8 February that many localities have conscientiously carried out the urgent circular of the State Council regarding strengthening electric power management on the demand side and the use of power in an orderly way. Many localities also have carried out the specific arrangements made by the headquarters of ensuring the supply of coal, electricity, fuel, and transportation under the State Council's emergency command centre for coal, electricity, fuel, and transportation and disaster relief. On the basis of their previous work, they have made more efforts to carry out the plans for orderly power consumption to ensure orderly supply of electric power.
Energy Lessons from South Africa
What do you do when you flip the light switch and nothing happens? You call the electric company and complain. But what do you do if the electric company tells you, "We have run out of electricity"?
In Many Communities, It’s Not Easy Going Green
But even in Arlington, county officials are reckoning with the fact that though green is the dream, the shade of civic achievement is closer to olive drab. Constraints on budgets, legal restrictions by states, and people’s unwillingness to change sometimes put brakes on ambitious plans to cut carbon dioxide emissions.
Following Two Paths to the Same Destination: Environmental Doom
Two lavish, cautionary nature documentaries go head to head on Sunday in a fight for the worried viewer. Their messages of ecological doom are similar, but their methods couldn’t be more different.“Crash: A Tale of Two Species” on PBS, an installment of “Nature,” is quiet, personal and specific, a filmmaker’s attempt to show how one tiny thread of the environment is unraveling. “Six Degrees Could Change the World,” on the National Geographic Channel, is bombastic, superficial and alarmist, a cable channel’s attempt to scare the heck out of you and sell you the companion book. That said, it might be the more valuable of the two programs.
The Climate Crisis Hits Your Living Room
It's already .8 degrees Celsius hotter on average than at the start of the industrial revolution, and the pace of warming is accelerating. "The warmer it gets, the faster it gets warmer," explains James Hansen, the NASA scientist who first drew widespread public attention to the threat. What will an increase of six degrees (11 degrees Fahrenheit) mean?● At a one degree Celsius increase, the Bay of Bengal in Asia faces continual flooding and drought conditions grip the Great Plains of the U.S.
● At two degrees, Greenland's glaciers begin to disappear and so do most coral reefs. The oceans begin to lose their capacity to absorb carbon, heightening the problem.
● At three degrees, the Arctic polar region is ice-free all summer and El Niño weather fluctuations become the norm.
● At four degrees, Bangladesh washes away and Egypt is inundated. New York is under assault from rising seas and super storms. British climate researcher and author Mark Lynas predicts, "We see a planet that is unrecognizable."
● At five degrees, there are 100 million environmental refugees seeking new homes. Social systems begin to break down.
● At six degrees, according to the filmmaker, "It's a doomsday scenario."
Total pulls out of Empty Quarter gas search
France's Total has pulled the plug on its involvement in the South Rub al-Khali (Srak) exploration company although another shareholder, the UK/Dutch Shell Group, says it remains committed to the search for gas in Saudi Arabia's Empty Quarter.Total, which held a 30 per cent stake in the venture, said it would not incur any penalty as the original agreement allowed shareholders to exit the contract if three wells were dry or non-commercial.
Baghdad plans to double oil production
Iraq has revealed plans to more than double oil production within five years in tandem with international oil companies (IOCs).The ambitious plans come despite the failure of the Iraqi parliament to pass a new oil law. However, Baghdad appears confident that it can move ahead without the new legislation.
Tajik president arrives in Tehran
During his stay, the Tajik president is to confer with his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on expansion of mutual cooperation and speeding up implementation of joint projects.The two sides are to discuss ways of putting an end to energy crisis in Tajikistan.
Pakistan: Plan approved to build Thar power plant
ISLAMABAD: A high-level meeting presided over by President Pervez Musharraf decided on Friday to finalise arrangements for starting work on a 1,000-MW coal-fired power plant at Thar in order to meet the growing electricity shortage.
Crisis Looms as Bitter Cold, Blackouts Hit Tajikistan
With many Tajiks spending what little money they have on fuel to heat their homes, the country is about to face widespread food shortages, says the United Nation's Zlatan Milisic."Increased food prices, previous reduced harvests, very, very cold weather, and the energy crisis have all contributed to the fact that the people are not able to cope anymore on their own," he says.
Biofuels were revolutionary, and they were going to save us all from the impending doom of an energy crisis and our unfortunate reliance on other countries for oil.Well, another silver bullet seems to be missing its mark. Biofuels, it turns out — and as many have been saying for a while now — are actually worse when it comes to producing greenhouse gases than conventional fuels. Oops.
A New Consciousness About Global Warming
Early-rising students received a cold shower of dire reality at the keynote speech of Focus the Nation, the student-organized day of educational and collaborative talks on global warming on Thursday, Jan. 31 in Weinstein Auditorium.Michael Klare, Five College professor of peace & world security studies gave his speech titled "Global Warming: the Human Dimension". The lecture outlined how and why global warming should be considered an urgent issue of national security, instead of an environmental concern.
OPEC could ditch dollars for euros: chief
LONDON (AFP) - OPEC could switch the pricing of oil from dollars into euros within a decade, secretary general Abdullah al-Badri told a weekly magazine.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could adopt the euro to combat the decline of the dollar, Badri told the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED), published in London.
"Maybe we can price the oil in the euro. It can be done, but it will take time," he said.
Badri told MEED the change could happen within a decade, the magazine said.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Here Comes the Stag
High energy prices will not go away. Despite the fall in equity markets, despite the turmoil of debt and credit markets, despite the growing numbers of people thrown out of jobs.Despite the fact that data in the United States has been amazingly weak this week, with stock builds all over the place - including a 7 million barrel crude build and a 10.6 million barrel build in products – the price will not budge.
Peak Oil Concerns Sail Safely Beneath the Radar
SOCORRO, New Mexico (STPNS) -- When it takes a small university journalism project to uncover what is arguably the most critical challenge ever faced by industrial society you have Denial, with a capital “D.” Even as our civilization approaches the end of its lifeblood, precious few of us realize it.
Iran to privatize $90 bln of energy assets: report
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran plans to privatize 47 firms in its energy sector worth $90 billion and set up a holding company for these assets which it will list on four international exchanges, a National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) executive said.The plan would see the oil and gas companies put under an umbrella group to attract foreign investment, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, director of international affairs at NIOC told the London-based Middle East Economic Digest (MEED).
Uganda's lucrative coffee threatened by climate change
NSANGI, Uganda (AFP) - The temperature is rising a little too quickly in Uganda -- and coffee farmers are getting worried. Growers say that global warming is damaging production of coffee, Uganda's biggest export.
G7 calls for investment to fight climate change
TOKYO (AFP) - Finance chiefs of the Group of Seven rich nations called Saturday for investment in developing countries to help them fight climate change and worked on plans for a World Bank-style fund.Finance ministers and central bank chiefs, in a joint statement after talks in Tokyo, said they hoped to "scale up investment in developing countries to support them in joining international efforts to address climate change."



I would like to throw this question out to everyone today.. I am visiting various websites concerned with energy efficiences, building sustainable communities, alternative energy sources ect, ect in the state of Iowa.. Not one of the serveral I have visited mentions peak oil or the notion that our future may depend on using less oil..
My question is simply, can they talk and want a sustainable, energy efficient, renewable fuel run communites without talking about peak oil or at least have an little understanding of this phenomena??
Iowa has a first rate education department.
Iowa State should already have the facts at hand.
""The biofuels route is a dead end," Dr. Andrew Boswell, a Green Party councillor in England and author of a recent study on the harmful effects of biofuels, told SPIEGEL ONLINE. "They are going to create great damage to the environment and will also produce dramatic social problems in (tropical countries where many crops for biofuels are grown). There basically isn't any way to make them viable."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,530550,00.html
Just in the US, marginal land is being plowed under.
Added fertilizer automatically increase nitric oxides.
"Both maize and rapeseed are voracious consumers of nitrogen, leading farmers to use large quantities of nitrous oxide fertilizers. But when nitrous oxide is released into the atmosphere, it reflects 300 times as much heat as carbon dioxide does. Paul J. Crutzen, who won the 1995 Nobel prize for chemistry, estimates that biodiesel produced from rapeseed can result in up to 70 percent more greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels. Corn, the preferred biofuels crop in the US, results in 50 percent more emissions, Crutzen estimates."
Of course they can talk about and want...
Want in one hand...
You answered your own question. I've been visiting sites...
I have visited their website with the intention of finding out whether or not peak oil is being mentioned. SO far not one has mentioned it although I don't believe you can talk about without the other or am I wrong..
I have also email the Director of the Office of Energy Independence for the state of Iowa, Roya Stanley, to ask her if peak oil should be part of the discussion about the future of energy in Iowa.. TO which she reply While we have not addressed peak oil directly, the issue is an underpinning of our efforts to chart our own course... I will hopefully corresponding with her further about this subject..
Reno;
I attended a Peak Oil Meetup last night (4 in attendance), and in thinking about what kinds of messages might catch the ear of diff't parts of the public, I came up with the thought that Pushing 'Peak OIL' as a concept, might be a lot like 'Pushing a Rope'. The rope may very well need to be moved, but if pushing at one end isn't having the desired effect, how can we pull at another end instead? This is to say that those groups who are working to teach Farming and Gardening and Permaculture are pulling, and they are working on the same rope, but that end of it is not called 'Peak Oil'.
In case this concept is still vague, I guess my own challenge right now is to identify the preparations , skills and assets that I can possibly envision as critical elements of an 'oil-restricted' situation, and look at how to get them going, without necessarily focusing on 'Peak Oil' as the Standard to march under, even if it's part of my thinking while doing so.. In a way, it's like telling people that if they don't eat, they'll starve.. so would you name a restaurant 'Starvation'?
What are the tools that a household will want first thing tomorrow morning to get by if your town is suddenly 'Capetowned'? What does a city NEED to function, and which parts of that (which Silver BB's, that is..) do we already know will help replace the systems now made possible by these gushing rivers of Gas, Diesel and #2 Heating Oil, etc.?
Hope that makes some sense.. I've got a 4yr old vying for attention. Her turn now. Good Hunting!
Bob
Peak Oilers are well represented in the current Cumberland County Master Gardener program. Getting in is reasonably competitive; we were selected.
How we feed ourselves without fossil fuels, fertilizers and inputs is explicitly part of the program - clearly front and center in the lead instructor's mind. I'll have to ask him how far that understanding has penetrated into the Ag/Ext services at UMaine.
I do think there is a groundswell - not so much about peak oil as about resource depletion and who profits/who pays more generally - that pits the local activists against the corporate piranhas. If the usual 98% remains uninvolved it will go badly. But the current Maine budget crunch, where every week seems to see revenue projections fall another $100 million, is going to open new possibilities. Not necessarily good ones - think Shock Doctrine.
cfm in Gray, ME
Reno,
You're obviously not an old fart like me who experinced the environmental movement in the 70s. People wanted to do "the right thing" and peak oil/energy wasn't part of the discussion. Look at the Mother Earth archives from that period or find some old copies of Clear Creek magazine. The ideas that are "new today" often originated from that period.
Heck, I bought my first PV panels over 25 years ago; 10 watt amorphous at $7 a watt, wow what a deal! I had a total of 77 watts after I added a 37 watt cyrtaline panel, a 500 watt square wave inverter and a truck battery.
My area also had a little food co-op and locally grown food for sale. The truck came once a month and people had to preorder.
This was also the period of communes. All the ones in my area failed because of personal issues but the people wanted to live low on energy hog.
So, all in all, I believe people can do the right thing and not talk about peak energy.
Todd
Currently there is a big, green bandwagon effect that is making itself felt across the political spectrum.
For some it is driven by GHG and GW, for others its an intuitive sense that our relationship with the earth threatens the entire community of life (of which we are an a member), others are peak oil aware but are too accustomed to the eyes glazing over phenomena, others realize green is "in" and may be profitably politically, socially or economically.
Sorry if I got a bit snippy yesterday but my father in-law just bought a new F250 to drive his 20 min. commute, alone, in his 3 piece suit, to his office, from his McVilla in the burbs.
Not that I think the prius will save us but man, hows that for "in your face dude".
I have decided to start spelling my name with only one F.
Jef
Doing my part.
Just think of all the energy the world could save if...
Well, look at the "bright" side. When his truck is repossessed and his McVilla is foreclosed, he will be moving in with you.
Sharon Astyk called it the "brother-in-law on the couch" syndrome. This is actually a good reason to have a small garden/farm. You can put the in-laws to work if they want to move in with you.
Anyone read this?
http://www.amazon.com/dp/086571553X/ref=pe_606_8324800_pe_ar_d1
Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times (Mother Earth News Wiser Living Series)
This book has been discussed here before, though I haven't read it.
Top shelf read.It gives some real good info on seed companies,and a different outlook on intensive bed cultivation
Thanks for the Reference, WT.
My wife and mom just finished reading
'Animal, Vegetable, Miracle',
Barbara Kingsolver's year of localizing her family's food supply. I'm getting pressed into the reading chair from both sides right now.. and I'm also due to finish Eliot Coleman's
'4-Season Garden',
about keeping fresh garden produce coming in to the larder all year round. (He does this in Maine, as does one of the Oil Awareness Meetup Organizers I met last night)
Bob Fiske
Both good books, Coleman's is an essential reference, Kingsolver more inspirational.
Currently working my way through it. Much more practical approach than more hobby oriented books.
However he still assumes you have a infrastructure available. I'd classify it as "farming for the poor" rather than "farming for post peak".
Still it's probably the best available.
IMHO a minimum library would be:
Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times
The Encyclopedia of country living
Putting food by
Solar Gardening
Four Season harvest.
But if you don't have the tools, seeds, fertilizer and plastic sheets prior to an event you are still S.O.L.
"I'd classify it as "farming for the poor" rather than "farming for post peak"."
post peak and poor might be synonymos.
A couple more I'd recommend:
J. Seymour, The Self-Sufficient Gardener
Hunt & Bortz, High Yield Gardening
A new edition of Seymour is supposed to be coming out any day now. Hunt & Bortz are o.o.p., but you can probably still find a used copy.
Seymour writes mainly from an English perspective, but the English are avid, experienced gardeners. He has some good stuff in there that you don't see in American gardening books.
Seymour gives you the necessary breadth, I see Coleman on the one hand and Hunt & Bortz on the other as providing the necessary two dimensions: stretching out your harvest over twelve months, and bringing in as much harvest as you can. You really need to be thinking about both.
WT...your post got me thinking...many of us have had gardens for awhile and several of us started gardens pretty recently (me, last year). It would be nice with spring around the corner if TOD could pull together a "Building/Maintaining Your Own Garden" article and have the experienced green thumbs help the newbies. I know we've had many posts concerning gardening tips and such, but nothing put together in a more structured article. Home grown food for thought.
Seconded. I am going bonkers trying to figure out how to make 1/4 acre support a family year round in a four season environment... 'cause that's alls I's gots for now. And trying to figure out how to build a comfortable home (meaning off-grid, not necessarily 75 degrees year-round, but maybe between 50 and 80...) for next to nothing. I'm thinking the non-linear nature of things (O, Chaos, Thou dost press upon mine heart, mind and soul...!) is about to get very real for the world.
I am not a happy puppy.
Cheers
You are possibly going bonkers with the realisation that 0.25 acres is simply not enough - about one hectare (2.4 acres) could be considered the minimum, unless you lived in a highly productive tropical or semi-tropical region. Doesn't matter how much you wish something to be so, if it ain't going to be so ...
Just concentrating on growing potatoes might be your best bet as you get a lot per acre, and hope to swap some for a more varied diet.
At least that is what the Irish peasantry did when they had to make do with tiny plots, although of course we all know what happened there.
I am not enough of a gardener to know, but perhaps cloches and greenhouses would help?
Another alternative where you might be able to barter work for more space might be to strengthen your walls sufficiently to support a roof garden.
Both thickening your walls and making a roof garden would also go some way towards insulating your house and reaching your objectives.
Passivhaus technology makes the house very air-tight, and relies on mechanical extraction to change the small amount of air needed, although an alternative might be to build your greenhouses as conservatories which would improve temperatures in the main house.
I also live on a 1/4 acre small town lot. I've got no illusions about being able to produce all of our own food just on that land. I think that with a few year's effort I could reasonably get up to maybe 50% or so. My first priority is to get the fruit and perennial vegies (asparagus & sunchokes) planted, as those take several years to get into production. I'm also going to beekeeping school right now; bees don't have to depend just on what I'm growing in my yard, so the honey they produce will be a lot of "free" extra calories produced on my land. Rabbits are a couple of years down the line, chickens maybe a couple more years after that - I've got the outbuilding and space for them, but I've got some work to do in reconfiguring it. Much of my yard right now is in shade trees, I'll have to gradually take most of them down (except for the two sugar maples in front, which provide afternoon shade as well as eventually syrup) to make more garden space.
One thing I'm doing to increase my production is to garden in containers on our deck. The deck is the sunniest place on our property right now, and I'm not going to let that sunlight go to waste.
I do also rent two 400 s.f. plots at our local community garden, though, so that gives me quite a bit more land to work with. I grow all of my root vegies there (less likely to be stolen), all of my brassicas (cabbage family), corn (with pole beans on the stalks - even if I lose the corn to animal or human thieves, I'll still have something to harvest), and winter squash; I've got these set up on a four-year rotation.
If (when) times get really hard and food gets really expensive, another option will be garden share-cropping. By equipping oneself with the necessary tools and supplies now and proceeding up the learning curve, one will be ready when a lot of one's neighbors are hungry and can't afford food, look out at their vast expanse of lawns, but don't have a clue as to what to do. Offering to do it for them in exchange for half the produce is going to look like a pretty good deal for a lot of them. Under that strategy, you got only close the gap to 100% self-sufficiency, you also can have enough of a surplus to be a regular seller at your local farmer's market.
If you can't realistically move, store a large amount of white rice. Get some surplus plastic 55-gallon barrels, seal them shut, and bury them. Cheap to do, and will keep for decades. Just a suggestion.
Thanks to all for your comments. I wasn't expecting any, so this is a great surprise. Some great suggestions. The rice one is nice. Sounds like a good emergency store regardless of any/all other choices. Rice is gawdawful expensive here in Korea, ironically enough.
I was, in fact, thinking of greenhouses due to the limited space. I was incorrect: we have almost a half acre. Looking at some of the intensive programs, such as the fellow in the Bay area (sorry, can't locate the link just now... need to tidy them up) who claims 4,000 sq. ft./person is possible. Under those conditions, I can build a small home and have enough land to feed 3 - 4 people. I am also going to look into hydroponics given the high yields, limited space and good rainfall here.
As ever, money and time. And timing. To go from living in an apartment in the city to a sustainable homestead... daunting. I see it as being my only option if I want to ensure, to the highest degree possible, my family's welfare.
Cheers
I am in the process of reading the book right now. It's a very interesting departure from the double digging, intensive gardening method. Some time ago I had read an article in Mother Earth News about soil fertility with a recipe for organic fertlizer. I clipped it out and lo and behold, it was Steve Solomon's recipe. I have located a local crop service company which will mix and bag the fertilizer for use on our 13 acres of vegetables.
I am also in the middle of The End of Food by Thomas Pawlick. Both he and Solomon are in agreement that the demise of our food supply is directly related to the demise of the soil. As an example, a potato grown conventionally (using nitrogen fertlizer) has lost 100 percent of vitamin A, 57 percent of vitamin C and iron, 28 percent of calcium, 50 percent of riboflavin and 18 percent of thiamine. The story is similar for most fruits and vegetables. Also, it was discovered that vegetables grown with organic fertlizers retain more of their original vitamins and accumulated less nitrate during storage than those grown with inorganic fertlizers. Pawlick sites a book that is next on my list: Plant Vitamins: Agronomic, Physiological, and Nutritional Aspects written by soil scientist Dr. Ahmad Mozafar of the Swiss Federal Institue of Technology.
Last summer my husband and I ate exclusively vegetables and fruit that we had grown organically. And our purchases of meat, eggs, honey and cheese were all from local sources. We found that because of the nutritional density of the food, we were eating far less and felt so much healthier. Even though the raw-milk cheese was $20 a pound, once we ate it we could never go back to buying cheese from the grocery store. And a little slice of that cheese went a long way. Just like I haven't purchased a tomato from the grocery store in more than 10 years. Well, maybe a couple. And we are still eating potatoes, onions and squash from our root celler and tomatoes, corn and herbs from our freezer and lots of dried beans from the garden.
This is why I think that Stuart Staniford is incorrect in his hypothesis that industrial agriculture will continue unabated. As more people begin eating real food grown in real soil, there is no going back. There isn't a way to produce this nutrient rich, wonderful tasting food and that includes vegetables, meat, fruit and dairy products on a large scale.
I think you're wrong about that. Sure, some people are willing to grow their own food (or pay for someone else to do it) just because it tastes better. But most people are perfectly willing to sacrifice taste for convenience. They're busy, and the last thing they want to do is cook, let alone grow their food.
However, I think you're right about the soil. This article argues that the lack of minerals in modern farmland is causing mental illness. They've had success treated depression and other disorders with high doses of minerals.
Curiously, the idea for the treatment came from a hog farmer. Apparently, hog farmers know that if a pig starts to act crazy, the cure is mineral supplements.
It reminded of the poster here who said that farmers feed pigs skim milk in order to make them fat; they won't get fat on whole milk. (In the discussion about whether it's eating fat or carbs that makes you fat.) Pigs are omnivores, like humans, and, diet-wise, are probably the best substitute for humans in experiments and such.
or sacrifice taste just to eat.
Been trying out your doomer chops today eh?
Nah his wife just put him on a low carb diet
People, in my estimation, are about to get a lot less busy. The thing about the doomsday scenarios is that they are possible, and probable, because things truly are just too complex to remain coherent in the face of multiple singularities and their resulting non-linear results.
IF it is too late to reign in climate change unless there is a massive, coordinated, world-wide response (Hansen), and IF it is too late to mitigate Peak Oil (less than 5-10 years to peak) unless there is a massive, coordinated, world-wide response (Hirsch), AND there actually is no massive, coordinated, world-wide response as is th current case, then how in hell is all hell NOT going to break loose?
Localized use of large farms, yes. Current agribusiness? Maybe not.
Sorry: no links, just my 2c.
Cheers
If it's climate change that's driving the chaos, then it will affect everyone growing food. Agribusiness, small local farmers, people gardening in their backyards.
This is why I think climate change could turn out to be worst than peak oil. Nothing is worse for a farmer than unpredictable weather.
Weather is always unpredicable except in short periods of 2-3 days. Even then predictions are often wrong. Experienced farmers are dealing with this all the time. I doubt climate change will make much difference and may even make it an easier problem in some areas where weather is especially violent like the Midwest. Right now I have both my corn stoves running plus the backup LP heater. It's 10 below with a wind chill in the area of 30-40 below zero. Global warming sounds pretty good.
Many researchers are predicting that the weather will become more extreme, as we settle into a new climate. Drought, floods, more powerful storms, etc. I don't think any farmer will say that's a good thing.
"Experienced" farmers may find their experience leads them wrong. And people who have carefully saved seeds that grow in their climate may find those seeds no longer grow there.