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DrumBeat: May 20, 2008
Posted by threadbot on May 20, 2008 - 9:18am
Topic: Miscellaneous
IHT: Middle East Oil: Defying the Experts
At a time of rapid price increases, our natural resources seem ever more precious and their future more uncertain. In particular, the arguments of advocates of "peak oil," who assert that global oil production has now climaxed and will start to decline, appear increasingly plausible.
Fortunately, however, a coming centenary puts their claims into a timely and fitting perspective. Almost 100 years ago - on May 26, 1908 - British geologists, working in a remote Persian wilderness, first discovered oil in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia celebrates 75 years of its national oil company in era of record energy prices
Saudi Arabia has marked the 75th anniversary of its national oil company, once a joint operation with the Americans, but gave no sign of acquiescing to a U.S. request to increase its oil output.
Dollar extends losses after U.S. inflation data
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six major currencies, was at 72.496, down from 73.059 in late North American trading Monday. The Labor Dept. said its producer price index slowed to 0.2% in April after seasonable adjustments, with food prices flat and energy prices falling. Economists had expected a 0.4% rise. See Economic Report. However, core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose a higher-than-expected 0.4% in April. Core prices are up 3% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year rise since late 1991.
Supply Worries Lift Crude To Yet Another New High
Crude-oil futures marched to a new record Tuesday amid continued uncertainty over supply in a period of growing world consumption. Light, sweet crude for June delivery was recently up $1.80 at $128.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after notching an all-time high of $129.31. The contract expires Tuesday. More actively traded July Nymex crude was at $128.78 a barrel, up $2.06, or 1.6%. July Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $2.27 to $127.33 a barrel.
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
Which brings us to the Export Land Model (or ELM, as I will refer to it from here). The basic thesis expressed by Jeff Brown and other students of the ELM is that, to fully appreciate the impact of peak oil, you cannot look only at the production declines so presciently anticipated by MK Hubbard in 1956. You also have to look at the rate of local consumption and the effect of that consumption on the ability of a country to export its oil.
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
To understand the importance of exports when discussing peak oil, ask yourself the question, "What's more important: the fact that global oil production is falling ... or that the oil-exporting nations are cutting off their exports?"
While the two questions are clearly linked, it is the nuance of the export question that clearly matters the most. Especially if you live in a country such as the US, which currently imports about 70% of its oil.
Which brings us to the Export Land Model (or ELM, as I will refer to it from here). The basic thesis expressed by Jeff Brown and other students of the ELM is that, to fully appreciate the impact of peak oil, you cannot look only at the production declines so presciently anticipated by MK Hubbard in 1956. You also have to look at the rate of local consumption and the effect of that consumption on the ability of a country to export its oil.
For more on the ELM, click here for the Export Land Model tag search.
America must face the harsh realities over oil
The first is that higher energy costs are here to stay. You don't have to buy Goldman Sachs's headline-grabbing forecast this month that crude will reach $200 a barrel.
Iraq could have largest oil reserves in the world
Iraq dramatically increased the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested that they could exceed Saudi Arabia’s and be the largest in the world.
To see what I’m talking about, consider where I am at the moment: in a pleasant, middle-class neighborhood consisting mainly of four- or five-story apartment buildings, with easy access to public transit and plenty of local shopping.
It’s the kind of neighborhood in which people don’t have to drive a lot, but it’s also a kind of neighborhood that barely exists in America, even in big metropolitan areas. Greater Atlanta has roughly the same population as Greater Berlin — but Berlin is a city of trains, buses and bikes, while Atlanta is a city of cars, cars and cars.
And in the face of rising oil prices, which have left many Americans stranded in suburbia — utterly dependent on their cars, yet having a hard time affording gas — it’s starting to look as if Berlin had the better idea.
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Never have so many oil and gas companies spent so much to produce so little.
That's the challenge facing Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc, Chevron Corp., Total SA and ConocoPhillips, which will spend a record $98.7 billion this year on exploration and production, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. estimates. Costs more than quadrupled since 2000 as explorers targeted more challenging reservoirs and demand rose for labor and material.
From Krugman today:
Stranded in Suburbia
I think it quite nice of Krugman to confirm what many of us have said: Most of the EU is ready for the age of high oil prices. I also consider it very important that most of the world has a very long history of localized economies with life before oil-based transport. As Krugman alludes to, suburbia is the US and Canada's Ball & Chain.
Europe relies on fossil fuels as much as anyone, remember petroleum is not only used for gasoline but for making pretty much everything that you see in the modern world, either directly from oil or indirectly by oil. Peak oil is not just a transport issue and to think of it as such is dangerous.
The EU uses 1/2 the oil per capita than the USA. In that sense, which includes areas other than transport, they are 200% more efficient users of oil products than the USA. It is that mountain the USA must climb, which is what Krugman was trying to say without saying.
Let's also remember something--much of the price paid in Europe is in taxes, meaning that in some way, folks get something back out of the prices, whether it is a service like rail or maintenance of bikeway, etc.
Paul is exactly right. Imagine paying $8/gal and getting absolutely nothing back out of it.
And thus you describe the dirty little secret: That Europeans may be highly taxed, but they get healthcare, bike paths, a good social safety net, etc out of it. Americans are less-taxed but then have to pay for all these things, which makes Americans the most highly taxed population in the world.
Americans are NOT, I repeat NOT, less taxed. THAT is the great secret nobody knows. When you add up the various state, local and federal taxes, duties, fees, etc., that Americans pay it is equal to the up-front taxation of Europe.
And what do we get for it? Better health care than Europe? Ha! Better education? Ha! Better infrastructure? Ha! Higher life expectancy? Ha! Longer vacations? Ha! More maternity leave? Ha!
America is not the Utopia some liars/ostriches would have you believe.
Cheers
"And what do we get for it?"
Oh, Oh, I know this one.
Bigger guns?
Do you just like to make up facts? Don't want reality intruding on your fantasy?
Compare countries' government expenditures as a percentage of GDP.
It took me less than 2 minutes to find that table.
*clap* *clap*
(Wonder if anyone has done a study when that income stream goes away)
Be that as it may, nearly all products are made from or through oil and shipped using oil. I don't care how many bike paths they have, their society will not be better off when there food prices skyrocket and they can't buy products from overseas because of transport costs. I grant you that their taxes cause them to drive less, and they get medical care and other things out of it, which is great, but in the long run they will not be better off when the products that they rely on like those rubber tires for bikes aren't available and the food that they get shipped to them disappears off the shelves. Oh, I found this list on the post carbon website http://www.postcarbon.org/node/2845 that lists the things made from oil, not counting the myriad of things made through oil, like food:
Air conditioners, ammonia, anti-histamines, antiseptics, artificial turf, asphalt, aspirin, balloons, bandages, boats, bottles, bras, bubble gum, butane, cameras, candles, car batteries, car bodies, carpet, cassette tapes, caulking, CDs, chewing gum, cold, combs/brushes, computers, contacts, cortisone, crayons, cream, denture adhesives, deodorant, detergents, dice, dishwashing liquid, dresses, dryers, electric blankets, electrician’s tape, fertilisers, fishing lures, fishing nets, fishing rods, floor wax, footballs, glues, glycerin, golf balls, guitar strings, hair, hair colouring, hair curlers, hearing aids, heart valves, heating oil, house paint, ice chests, ink, insect repellent, insulation, jet fuel, life jackets, linoleum, lip balm, lipstick, loudspeakers, medicines, mops, motor oil, motorcycle helmets, movie film, nail polish, nylons, oil filters, paddles, paint brushes, paints, parachutes, paraffin, pens, perfumes, petroleum jelly, plastic chairs, plastic cups, plastic forks, plastic wrap, plastics, plywood adhesives, refrigerators, roller-skate wheels, roofing paper, rubber bands, rubber boots, rubber cement, rubbish bags, running shoes, saccharine, seals, shirts (non-cotton), shoe polish, shoes, shower curtains, solvents, solvents, spectacles, stereos, sweaters, table tennis balls, tape recorders, telephones, tennis rackets, thermos, tights, toilet seats, toners, toothpaste, transparencies, transparent tape, TV cabinets, typewriter/computer ribbons, tyres, umbrellas, upholstery, vaporisers, vitamin capsules, volleyballs, water pipes, water skis, wax, wax paper
No one is saying Europe will have no problems, but they are far better prepared than the US.
They have a better rail system and more fuel efficient cars which is fantastic. But a rail system without abundant electricity from coal/nat. gas, and exceptional fuel costs means that Europe is just barely more prepared physically than the US. The most important part of European peak oil is that they have a mindset that is based more upon sustainability than we do, a mindset that will not originate overnight in the US, i.e. look at how long global warming acceptance has taken to penetrate into the mainstream. That may be their saving grace and ours to if we decide to adopt this policy now.
I believe they have a better passenger rail system but almost no rail freight, which is America's strong suit. Europe relies on trucks to haul most of their freight. That part of their system is not going to fare as well as America's.
Not so fast.
http://www.rfg.org.uk/aboutfreight/
Now OK, the US rail freight level is much larger. However there are differences in distances etc. that account for 80% of that difference - plus of course rails being used for passengers are not available for freight.
Water transport also pays a surprisingly large role in moving goods in the EU, and is poised to increase it's share.
For delivery vehicles EV's are being adopted:
http://www.j-sainsbury.co.uk/cr/index.asp?pageid=63&caseid=vans
J Sainsbury plc : Responsibility : Case studies : Case studies - Environment
"by 2000, the share of U.S. rail freight was 38% while in Europe only 8% of freight traveled by rail" -Wikipedia
They've messed it up pretty good:
http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/articles/rail/559.shtml
I think America is better prepared:
1) We have more of our own fossil fuels resources.
2) We have more wind and solar potential per capita.
3) We have more geothermal potential per capita.
4) We haven't done many of the easier adaptations and therefore have greater potential to cut back on energy usage.
5) We are self sufficient for food and export.
As for Europe's trains: Big deal. I've previously posted a number of times here a URL to a chart of European passenger travel by car and train. In many Euro states less than 10% of passenger travel miles are by train. The value of trains is much exaggerated.
I see you've been registered here for just over 4 weeks and have just started writing comments, which is why I haven't read anything from you before. What I'm curious about is what sort of future you seek given what you now know about Peak Oil (and Climate Change, since they're linked)?
I have written comments, and futureseeker is just a screen name, but if you want to read into it I seek a world with a stable population, a high standard of living, and the reduction and eventual elimination of greenhouse gas pollution in the world. I started reading about peak oil because I found myself driving through suburbia with an empty feeling inside and thinking to myself how suburbia was a lie meant to be bought and sold by the public who wanted to live in the country but not really. That led me to peak oil which terrifies me because although it will eventually curb global warming, put an end to suburbia and bring back communities, it will leave a lot of dead people around the world in the process. I don't find either prospect desirable, on the one hand you have a polluted dysfunctional world ruled by consumerism and on the other you have a broken, poor world ruled by necessity. I guess that deep down inside I'm hoping that green technology and common sense will lead to a better place in the future but I'm not holding my breath.
Not to be a stickler for details, but almost NONE of the items on this list are made from oil...jet fuel, motor oil and heating oil yes, but most of the rest of the items on the list are extracted from natural gas. Petroleum yes, but not oil.
It may sound like a small detail, but it's huge. North America is still 85% self reliant on natural gas despite declining natural gas production. The type of lists above, while completely inaccurate, lead to many of the "doomsday scenarios" that claim that modern culture will completely collapse with declining oil production, and that there will be no way to construct alternatives because after all, as everyone knows (incorrectly of course) EVERYTHING comes from oil. It's one of many myths that exist in the mind of the public that helps convince there will never be an alternative to oil
RC
Oh thank god. I had been trembling at the thought of a world without volleyballs or floor wax.
How about food?
First of all petroleum and crude oil are the same thing. If the natural gas is derived from petroleum then it is based upon hubbard's peak and we do have cause for concern. Also, I'm not sure that you are correct in saying that these products are made from natural gas, but for the sake of argument I'll except this. Secondly you said that natural gas has peaked and then went on to say that we shouldn't be worried about civilization cracking up. That is a contradiction. I do not believe that the loss of petro products will cause civilization to crack up because the main issue is food production which is made with petro/nat.gas based ferilizer, with machines built by machines burning coal, natural gas and using oil, and powered by gasoline and shipped by gasoline and packaged by oil. This is the real concern, the loss of made from petro products will just add massive insult to injury.
Air conditioners: Not needed
Ammonia: Alternative fedstocks & production pathways, or substitutes (apply composted agricultural and municipal wastes to fields to supply N)
Anti-histamines: Alternative feedstocks & production pathways available
Antiseptics: Alternative feedstocks & production pathways available
Artificial turf: Somehow, I think we could get by without it
Asphalt: If we moved all long-distance freight and passenger traffic to rails, we wouldn't need many paved roads - and they DID have roads before asphalt
Aspirin: Willow bark
Balloons: Somehow, I think we could get by without them
Bandages: Cotton cloth - what do you think they used to use?
Boats: People have been building them out of wood for thousands of years, why can't we?
Bottles: Made out of glass, made out of sand & recycled broken bottles, found in Egyptian tombs
Bras:: Made of cotton and latex rubber, renewable resources
Bubble gum: Chewing gum is made from the sap of a tropical tree, a renewable resource
Butane: Could be synthesized from biogas methane or from methanol or ethanol feedstocks to the extent we really need it - if people stopped smoking (an utterly unnecessary habit) we wouldn't need butane lighters
Cameras: Photography was being done before the first oil well was drilled, we can make cameras and film out of renewable/recyclable materials to the extent that we really need photography
Candles: Beeswax & tallow are renewable resources
Car batteries: No petroleum = no cars
Car bodies: ditto
Carpet: They've been woven from wool or rags for thousands of years
Cassette tapes: Hardly even used any more. Cellulose (made from renewable resources) coated with iron oxide (no shortage of that) could be used for recording tapes to the extent we really needed them
Caulking: Could be made from latex, from rubber trees - a renewable resource
CDs: We could live without them, we might have to go back to older recording technologies, and use renewable resources to make recordings
Chewing gum: See above
Cold: ???, move north?
Combs/brushes: Used to be made out of animal horns and hair, could be again
Computers: We'll have to figure out how to construct every single part out of renewable resources; it can be done if we want computers badly enough. By far the largest amount of plastic is used in cases and brackets, rather than in the actual operating guts, and these could be replaced with wood, etc.
Contacts (lenses?): Well, people needing vision correction just might have to accept the blow to their vanity and go back to old-fashioned eyeglasses, made with glass and metal or animal horn
Cortisone: Could be synthesized from renewable feedstocks
Crayons: Kids could learn to use pastels or chalk or colored pencils or water colors instead; it would hardly be the end of the world if they couldn't have crayons
Cream: Comes from COWS, idiot!
Denture adhesives: Could be formulated from renewable feedstocks
Deodorant: Maybe we just need to adjust our socially acceptable norms a little bit. Bathing and washing clothes are alternatives, too.
Detergents: Soap can be made from lye (from wood ashes) and oils or fats, and was being made long before the oil age; we might need to modify our laundry practices a bit
Dice: Could be made out of wood or any number of other things - as if we really need them
Dishwashing liquid: See detergents above
Dresses: Can be made out of cotton or wool or linen fabric, as they were for thousands of years in the past
Dryers: Can be replaced with clotheslines or wooden drying stands
Electric blankets: Can be replaced with down comforters/duvets
Electrician’s tape: Could be replaced with cotton tape if necessary
Fertilisers: Compost, blood meal, bone meal, wood ashes, etc.
Fishing lures: Could be carved out of wood, or tie flies
Fishing nets: Could be woven from cotton line, as they have been for thousands of years
Fishing rods: Can be made of bamboo, as the best ones always were
Floor wax: Can be formulated from beeswax and other natural waxes, if you REALLY need it (everyone except royalty apparently got along quite well without it for most of human history)
Footballs: Pigskin
Glues: Could be formulated from various renewable feedstocks
Glycerin: Can be synthesized from renewable feedstocks
Golf balls: Were made of leather and other natural ingredients
Guitar strings: Animal guts
Hair: ??? on your head
Hair colouring: Could be formulated from natural ingredients, to the extent that this is really needed?
Hair curlers: Were probably made with wood, animal bristles, etc. in the past, could be again
Hearing aids: Similar problem to computers above, the biggest use of plastic is in the outer case, maybe something could be carved out of some natural material
Heart valves: Not a huge quantity needed each year, synthetic materials from renewable feedstocks could be made in the lab to the extent needed
Heating oil: Houses need to be super-insulated and building envelopes tightly sealed, interior temps reduced to low 60s F, then heating systems replaced by solar as much as possible, supplemented by wood if possible, or neighborhood steam plants powered by CSP or wood or biogas
House paint: Can be formulated from linseed oil and other natural materials, but brick or stone exteriors are more durable and don't require paint
Ice chests: Used to be made out of metal + other recyclable materials
Ink: Used to be and can be made out of natural materials
Insect repellent: Formulations using natural materials might have to do, woven cotton insect netting can help at night
Insulation: Fiberglass is made from glass, celluose from paper
Jet fuel: Take the train or boat instead of flying; a little juet fuel could probably be formulated from ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks for truly essential aviation
Life jackets: Used to be filled with cork or kapok, both renewable materials
Linoleum: Is made from linseed oil and cork
Lip balm: Can be formulated from beeswax and other natural ingredients
Lipstick: Can be formulated from beeswax and other natural ingredients
Loudspeakers: Cabinets are/can be made out of wood, speakers are made out of paper and metal (which can be recycled)
Medicines: Most of these are either biologicals from natural renewable sources to begin with (vaccines, penicillin, insulin, estrogen), or could be synthesized from renewable feedstocks
Mops: String mops are made out of cotton, sponge mops could be made out of sea sponges (if managed for maximum sustainable yield)
Motor oil: No petroleum, no automobiles; there are natural oils that could be formulated to serve as lubricants for electrical motors
Motorcycle helmets: No petroleum, no motorcycles. Bicycle helmets (which have lower performance demands placed upon them than motorcycle helmets) could be fabricated out of leather and other natural materials
Movie film: Is made out of cellulose, which can be made from natural feedstocks
Nail polish: Could be formulated from natural materials, to the extent really needed
Nylons: Silk stockings are the alternative, to the extent really needed
Oil filters: Not needed if no petroleum products
Paddles: Have been and can be made from wood
Paint brushes: Many still are, and all could be, made of wood and animal hair
Paints: Can be formulated from natural materials
Parachutes: Could be made from silk, as they originally were - but with very little aviation, there will also be little need for parachutes
Paraffin: Beeswax and other natural waxes
Pens: Can be made of wood, metal, animal horn, etc. - even goose quills if it really comes to that
Perfumes: Are almost all formulated from natural ingredients now, and could be 100% natural
Petroleum jelly: Substitutes could be formulated from natural ingredients to the extent needed
Plastic chairs: Wood, metal, cloth, leather
Plastic cups: Glass
Plastic forks: Metal
Plastic wrap: Wax paper (see below)
Plastics: See rest of list for examples of alternatives
Plywood adhesives: See glues above
Refrigerators: Could be made mostly out of metal, wood and glass
Roller-skate wheels: Could be made out of rubber, if these are really necessary
Roofing paper (and shingles, not mentioned): Asphalt is the problem, but metal, slate or tile roofing is a more durable roofing alternative anyway
Rubber bands: Rubber is a renewable resource
Rubber boots: Rubber is a renewable resource
Rubber cement: Rubber is a renewable resource, the solvent is the problem, but alternative formulations using natural materials is possible
Rubbish bags: Paper bags, rubbish cans
Running shoes: Could be made of rubber, cloth and leather
Saccharine: Sugar and honey are renewable resources, people who should consume them need to just do without
Seals: ???
Shirts (non-cotton): Blending a little wool or linen in with cotton will make them more durable and less in need of ironing
Shoe polish: Can be formulated from natural materials
Shoes: Can be made from leather
Shower curtains: Could be made from wax-saturated cotton
Solvents: Less need for them in a not-petroleum world, could be systhesized from methanol, ethanol, etc. to the extent still needed
Spectacles: Eyeglasses, see contacts above
Stereos: Similar problem to computers, most of the plastics are in the outer case, which could be made of wood & metal
Sweaters: Knitted from wool & cotton
Table tennis balls: Made from cellulose
Tape recorders: See comments about stereos and recording tape above
Telephones Were made of wood and metal (and just a little bit of bakelite plastic (which can be made from renewable materials), and could be again
Tennis rackets: Made of wood, strung with animal gut
Thermos: Metal (stainless steel) or glass
Tights: Wool or cotton
Toilet seats: Wood
Toners: Copiers and printers need to be re-engineered to work with natural materials
Toothpaste: Sodium Bicarbonate (abundant, and could be synthezized from other abundant materials if need be) and other natural materials
Transparencies: Cellulose, to the extent needed
Transparent tape: Cellulose and natural adhesives
TV cabinets: See stereos
Typewriter/computer ribbons: Cotton and inks
Tyres Rubber
Umbrellas: Silk and metal
Upholstery: Leather, wool, etc.
Vaporisers: Glass & metal
Vitamin capsules: Can be systnesized or formulated from natural materials
Volleyballs: Leather
Water pipes: Iron & steel, brass, copper
Water skis: No gas for pleasure boats, not needed (wood for snow skis)
Wax: Beeswax and other natural waxes
Wax paper: paper coated with beeswax or other natural waxes, it goes back a couple of centuries
In conclusion, it seems to me that a lot of people are ignorant about how society did things before the petroleum & plastic age. It also seems to me that the middle and even lower classes have come to enjoy and expect things that used to just be in the realm of the upper classes. We might just have to learn to be poor again and get by on less.
That's pretty cavalier, especially as the climate gets even hotter. (I do not have any but I live in a very special micro climate.)
We are not facing an inevitable shortage of electricity. The world has vast nuclear, wind and solar resources. And plenty of low grade hydrocarbons for everything we need except fuel.
Not intending to be cavalier, just recognizing the reality that energy might be so expensive that for all bu the top 10% or 5% or 1%, this might be a discretionary item that has to go. There is no possible way that most people will be able to afford enough PV panels, or have the space to put them, to power a/c. Yes, of we can manage to keep the grid up then more renewables will be feeding into it. But most of that will go to replace the NG that is depleting, and to substitute for essential things that were running on petrofuels. Fans, most people can probably still have; a/c, probably not.
If people buy air heat pumps they would save on energy costs, and could also use them to run the a/c.
In old houses they are around 2.5 times more efficient than using the electricity directly, and in new builds perhaps 4 times I believe, but my figures may be somewhat in error as I looked into it from the European perspective where it would be used for piped water heating, not running air cooling.
This might possibly mean that some would still be able to keep a/c, although there is no guaranteeing it.
Are you not forgetting nuclear? I think there is good reason to think nuclear could rise to 60% of all energy by 2050 (20% renewables and 20% fossil fuels). That would mean about a 90% increase in total energy consumption from today, a 20 fold increase in nuclear and a 40 fold increase in wind and solar.
Furthermore, I think if it can, it will. If there is a way out, people will take it. Unless the physical reality changes, I think a nuclear dominated future is inevitable.
I think we'll have some more nukes, but it will be slow going adding them, and we're getting close to the point where new additions are going to be increasingly replacing decommissionings. Nukes are one thing where you do NOT want to cut any corners, which means that proper time and effort need to be spent in siting, engineering & building them. We just don't have the capacity to ramp them up that fast, even if all the NIMBYs went away.
Then, too, if the US economy is going into long-term decline (which seems to me almost certain), then how are we going to come up with the capital to finance all of these? How is our economy even going to be able to produce all of the stuff that goes into building a NPP?
As I say, I do think we will manage to build some more nukes, but they will be fewer than you are thinking. Your 60% figure might be right, though - if US electricity consumption drops by 50-66% (which it probably must). That's probably not what you had in mind, though.
Opinion without factual basis.
Long-term decline - opinion.
NPP supply chain - you do not even know what is happening with the supply chain.
The large forgings supply issue is being solved.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/05/united-states-and-russia-moving-forward...
Korea's Doosan will make the reactor pressure vessels for China's Sanmen AP1000 reactors (so not just Japan Steel and Russia)
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-US_Chinese_AP1000_contracts_0805081....
Nuclear reactors being built or on order
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html
EIA forecast for when the climate change bill is passed. Shows high growth in nuclear. All the remaining presidential candidates support a climate change bill. The only thing stopping one now is the Bush veto.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/s2191/pdf/sroiaf(2008)01.pdf
Tyres Rubber
I'll remind people that tires/tyres can be made from alcohol. WWII level tech.
That was because the Japanese had occupied Malaysia, Indonesia and Indochina. Except for a little bit of rubber production in Latin America, they pretty much had a lock on it. Assuming some sort of more or less open global trading system, there should be enough rubber available from tropical plantations to supply ESSENTIAL needs. That includes tires only for bicycles, public safety & emergency response vehicles, agricultural equipment, and other essential vehicles. There may not be a whole lot available beyond that.
Impressive list. But that would require a revolution.
But my point is that for almost everything on that list, we were formerly able to make products that were derived only from renewable or recyclable materials. It is not so much a revolution as a reversion. If we can no longer able to do things the way we have been doing them, then if it is important enough to still do, we'll figure out a way, even if that ends up being the former way.