 | UPDATED: The Oil Market's Historic Swing to Continuous Contango--Has Peak Oil "Tipped"? | The Oil Drum | Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part 1 - There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously |  |
DrumBeat: May 21, 2008
Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 21, 2008 - 9:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil Monitor (IEA) to Slash Estimate Of World's Supply of Crude (parts behind paywall)
The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of a large study of the condition of world's top oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude-oil supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.
Oil prices pass $134 after government report of a drop in crude and gasoline inventories
NEW YORK (AP) -- Runaway oil prices blew past $130 a barrel for the first time Wednesday and kept going, while gasoline prices persisted in their own relentless climb, rising above $3.80 a gallon. Supply worries, rising demand and a slumping dollar are conspiring to make filling up the car -- and paying for just about everything else -- a growing burden for Americans.
With gas and oil prices setting new records on a daily basis, many analysts are beginning to wonder whether anything can stop prices from rising. There are technical signals in the futures market, including price differences between near-term and longer-term contracts, that crude may soon fall. But with demand for oil growing in the developing world, and little end in sight to supply problems in producing countries such as Nigeria, few analysts are willing to call an end to crude's rally.
Crude's Price Surge Attracts Oil-Field Thieves
Tankers, Pipelines Grow as Targets; Few Crimes Solved
A sharp rise in oil-field thefts is driving oil companies and law enforcement to beef up security at wells that are being targeted more frequently as a source of easy money. Thieves are tapping into pipelines, paying off truck drivers and sometimes simply driving up to wells in tanker trucks and pumping the oil out of storage containers.
OPEC oil supply rising in May-Petrologistics
LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - OPEC oil supply in May is expected to rise by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), led by higher output from members including Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, an industry consultant said on Wednesday.
The increase comes during a month in which oil has soared to record highs and indicates OPEC is again pumping more than its supply limit after a strike in Nigeria lowered output and Saudi Arabia opted to pump more.
All 13 OPEC members are expected to pump 32.4 million bpd this month compared with a revised 31.7 million bpd in April, Conrad Gerber of tanker tracker Petrologistics, told Reuters.
Oilpatch gears up for a comeback
Buoyed by surging natural gas and record oil prices, the western Canadian oilpatch is gearing up for a recovery in the second half of 2008.
Crude In The Stratosphere; Wall Street Regroups
With oil prices at record levels investors pulled out of U.S. stocks on Tuesday, as the outlook for the U.S. consumer seemed to grow bleaker by the hour. Forecasts of $150 oil, another uptick in a key inflation measure, and concerns the credit crunch's next wave could hit consumer lending all lent credence to a dour outlook.
'Peak oil' sentiment pumping up long-term futures
"You have had a lot of press, whether from OPEC or other market watchers, calling for significantly higher prices than what we're seeing today," said Eric Wittenauer, an energy analyst at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. "Those can be proof positive for the higher end of the curve."
As oil soars, Japan's plan makes sense
Japan also shifted away from oil to natural gas, which is available from less distant and more reliable suppliers such as Brunei and Indonesia. Natural gas provides about 15 per cent of Japan's energy needs, up from 2.7 per cent in 1975. Oil provides about 46 per cent, down from 71 per cent. Coal accounts for about 22 per cent, up from 18 per cent, and other sources provide the remainder.
American Cuts US Flights; Airline Stocks Plummet
American Airlines said it plans to cut domestic capacity by 11 percent to 12 percent this year as fuel prices reach record highs and the weak U.S. economy casts a shadow over the summer travel season.
US calls on China to join global energy group, help stabilize oil markets
A U.S. official urged China on Tuesday to join the International Energy Agency — a group of major oil consumers that includes the United States and European governments — and aid its efforts to keep petroleum markets stable in times of crisis.
OPEC secretary-general says world oil market well supplied
OPEC's secretary-general says the world oil market is well supplied despite prices that have risen above US$129 a barrel.
An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude
An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now.
There were warnings about the Housing Bubble on the web for years before the market tanked. Now we are warning you about the approaching global maximum of oil volumetric flow rates, a concept which others call "peak oil." Thank God for the internet. In the meantime, merrily we roll along, living in the phony economy Big Brother has invented for us.
yay first !
sorry.
I notice today that Oman 1M has leapt 16% to 143 ... why would this particular blend do this ? Is it the quality as assessed on the fly that determines the price differential ?
What’s happening with Oman Crude?
I checked Upstream Crude oil spot prices this morning and found Oman crude up $23.76 to $143.85. I thought “surely that is a misprint” so I checked it an hour later. It had dropped sixteen cents to $143.69.
Oman crude usually trades about par with Dubai crude, or about five to ten dollars below WTI. It is a slightly heavier grade than WTI. Dubai crude is trading in its normal range so why the sudden jump in Oman crude? This is weird.
Ron Patterson
My oil trader friend couldn't find any confirmation for the Oman price, but it is still up there on Upstream. He did say that India is very aggressively buying crude and there are recurring rumors than India is planning to set up a SPR. We may be seeing governments beginning to try to buy any and all crude that they can get their hands on.
Thanks for this. I put up the same question on peakoil.com houers ago and this is the first resonable answer, but why are they then in such a rush to buy that they can not order some other type of crude? I can not accept that Oman 1M should be so extremely specific that it from one day to the other is worth $15 more than all other types of crude? Something is strange here or I am extremly ignorant or maybe both...
I'm not sure I fully understand this, but it looks like Oman has its own way of selling its oil.
quote:
Official crude oil prices in Oman are set by the Ministry of Oil and Gas (MOG), through a unit directly controlled by the minister, Dr. Mohammed Al Romhi. Since the beginning of 1985, a panel of experts has been setting crude prices on a monthly basis, in accordance with a spot market related formula adjusted retroactively to spot transactions during the previous month.
Unlike its OPEC neighbours, the MOG allows Oman to trade on the spot market. The crude is a marker, together with Dubai, for east of Suez exports from Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others. This marker is called Dubai/Oman price average. The MOG is yet to become an active participant in the spot market and turn its main export crude into an official marker.
link:
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-712243/OMAN-Omani-Oil-Pricing.ht...
So doesn't this mean Oman has moved their spot price above the market when in the past it has been below the market? Are they betting/saying/predicting that prices will continue to move up?
Maybe they now realize the true value of their oil. Maybe they read TOD!
I think the article on top, and more regular MSM coverage, is a rewarding result of TOD staff efforts to get the message across. All the experts' input makes it quite credible.
Based on research he did during Super Bowl weekend, Matt Simmons believes that "all the great oil fields of the Middle East" are set up to go into a "North Sea tailspin soon". In the interview, Simmons said this could begin in the next few months. The interview was conducted on February 24.
This may not be what is currently driving up prices, but it's something to keep in mind.
The Fading Twilight of Oil Part 1
The Fading Twilight of Oil Part 2
I just noticed that part 2 is available to subscribers only. This must have recently changed, because I was able to download it for free a couple months ago.
If Simmons is right about the ME fields going into a tailspin, then we are headed for big time *PANIC*. Nobody's ready for a fast collapse in oil production.
Well maybe not ready but I'd at least not be surprised.
Nobody's ready for a slow collapse either.
Ummm...I would like to say this to the Peak Oil Fairy out there that is making the WTI price (and others) skyrocket right now...OK, we all get it...it's real.
Please..can you just take a break from these daily crude and gasoline price records...let us catch our breath.
Man alive and holy Shiite...Bloomberg is showing 134.810 right now for WTI...what the heck will the rest of this week bring before the driving insanity of USA Memorial Day weekend and the kickoff to summer?
what the heck will the rest of this week bring before the driving insanity of USA Memorial Day weekend and the kickoff to summer?
A rising Greek Chorus accusing oil firms of price gouging?
(I'm SO looking forward to more people blaming
price gouging/speculatorsworking Capitalists making a profit)I think I definitely picked the right time to start walking to work.
Actually, 99% of the world is not ready for anything but an exponential increase into infinity.
WT, did you or anyone else notice the LARGE splash you made in today's UrbanSurvival?
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Export Land Model is starting to get traction.
Also, John Mauldin stole your ELM title and didn't even mention you.
A few people should email him and explain where the term came from.
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10311.htm
John Maudlin piece leads on to an article by David Galland which fully credits wt and talks extensively about his work.
Mine sez...
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
By David Galland,
Managing Director
Casey Research - Casey Energy Speculator
Jeffrey Brown is someone you should know. That's because he can help you understand today's high energy prices and that, as an investor, can make you a lot of money.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/arch......
Sorry, My mistake.
westexas the investment consultant? ELM can earn you money. ELP can provide for living.
To clarify slightly, I agreed to do an interview with Casey Research, which they put into their investment newsletter.
WT...you're a hot commodity...I wonder if your future contracts are in contango?
I had a long chat with George Ure yesterday. Like a lot of people, he was looking for an explanation for the recent rapid increase in oil prices. I think that we are looking at something like the following annual trend in total net oil exports: -2%, -4%, -6%, -8%, -10%. . .
As soon as we get a period of stability, where price equalizes supply & demand, we will get a sharper net export decline rate, requiring an accelerating price increase in order to balance supply & demand--especially as forced energy conservation moves up the food chain.
Wherever we are headed and whatever the consequences, IMO this is what is driving the price of oil up.
Doesn't Oman have access to the Indian Ocean outside the Strait of Hormuz? Should the Strait be closed in the event of some "interesting times", wouldn't Oman still be able to deliver oil to customers? Their LNG plant is on the Indian Ocean too, as I recall.
E. Swanson
Oman's facilities are around the corner from the Straight of Hormuz, but still within easy range of a Silkworm or Sunburn missile - their stuff is about as far down the coast from the narrows as Dubai is going the other direction into the Gulf itself. I guess in theory this would be easier to patrol as there would be less small boat traffic, unlike the Gulf itself.
I get the feeling the experts on here seem to think there is a mistake on the Oman 1M oil price.
If it is not a mistake, is that the first bit of S**t hitting the fan?
This is a misprint (error of some sort), nuff speculations. No oil-grade takes off like this whatsoever.. If it was real though, it's just a way to say "we will not sell you our oil"
Oman is just nearby Dubai, which in turn has always been rated a better oil-grade to that from Oman ..... except from this morning that is. Cheer up!
I just noticed that Dubai has not opened today, they are still posting yesterday's price. So don't cheer up just yet. It is late afternoon in Dubai, that price should have been posted by now.
Strange no news media has picked this up? It is an extreme anomaly. :-/
That's true, maybe it's just pure coincidence that MSN which is reasonably main stream media had this article for it's readers to ponder.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveonaCar/WhatIfGasC...
What if gas cost $10 a gallon?
By Shirley Skeel
Editor's note: This is one in an occasional series of financial what-ifs.
Yeah, right!
On the Oman price bump could this be an example of hoarding? Seems like the price is far enough above SPOT to discourage purchase.
Hmmm.... $140/bbl appears to have been breached. Time for another poll? ;o)
-best,
Wolf
PS Okay, okay, it's not WTI.
Soon enough graywulffe, soon enough I fear... :|
WTI just passed $134. At this rate $143.69 will seem a bargain soon.
Oil for 2016 Delivery Nears $140 on Supply Concern
Enuff said!
Oil hit $130 today
It has now slipped back to just over $129
CNN, and in particular their financial analyst, Todd Benjamin seem peak oil aware, or at any rate aware that supplies are unlikely to increase and that prices will remain high.
He posts blogs on oil at CNN - here is a link to the latest one is anyone wishes to contribute:
http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/21/whos-to-blame-for-high-oil-prices/
Part of a post I did to a previous oil-related blog of his got read out today - fame at last!
In my post I also linked to west texas's article on oil, so perhaps he has read that too.
All next week they are running a series on oil entitled 'Tapping out?'
Chuck Marvin of 'The Street' on CNN just now said that it is all speculation!
That's alright then! For a moment I thought we had a problem!
He did acknowledge that higher demand from China and India made it difficult to see what the price should be, but said that it was obscured by speculation.
EU plan could lead to power blackouts, UK generators claim
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-plan-could-lead-to-po...
this comes on top of many coal and nuclear plants coming to the end of their lives in the next few years - there appears to be no situation so bad that regulation can't make it worse.
More on South Africa's electricity situation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7339213.stm
Northern Rock billions at risk in a downturn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/21/cnrock...
For those not familiar with it, this is a large mortgage company which had it's loans underwritten by the Government.
The UK government itself now predicts a 10% fall in house prices, and some analysts expect a 30% fall.
Good news all over for the UK economy
The UK is the US first line of defense.
Fight the good fight!
;}
"Latest excuse for the credit snafu: it's the computer's fault.
Moody's is conducting a review to see how come several CPDOs (constant proportion debt obligations), some of the most highly engineered products in the alphabet soup of finance, were given AAA ratings when they should have been as much as four notches lower.
I note that CPDOs are some of the most virulent forms of credit derivatives ever devised. In short, they force investors to keep raising their ante in the form of higher leverage as losses mount. It's equivalent to doubling down every time you lose a round at the roulette table. Most appropriate rating for CPDOs? "F", as in: "fools and their money are soon parted"."
http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/
Which Ratings Model is Broken?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/which-ratings-model-is-broken...
Moody's is conducting a review-classic.
May be that huge Indian Reliance refinery is coming onstream.
Some items from CNBC.
The average resale value of a large SUV bought in 2007 is now down by about 50% from its 2007 purchase price. Some dealers are refusing to accept SUV's as trade-ins.
American Airlines is drastically reducing their schedule. They have been losing something like $3 million per day.
To fill in some more details, American Airlines said they could cut capacity by 11-12% in the 4th quarter. They will also retire 45-50 planes.
And also this American to charge for 1st checked bag, Delta balks
I think that airlines should charge by weight. The weight of the luggage (including carry-ons) plus the weight of the passengers. People with lots of luggage and fatties would pay the most. The weight of your clothing included - fly naked and you'd get a discount.
This is a great idea. I remember weigh-ins for puddle-jumper flights years ago. Passengers stood on at a time with their luggage on a scale and the folks at check-in ran a tally that was used for calculating fuel for the flight.
I recall the puddlejumper flight where it taxied, ran/tried to liftoff, and taxied back. Day was too hot, all had to jettison luggage before it would try again.
I remember the airplane having to take fuel off, then fly to a closer airport to refuel. It seems like this was from Roanoke WV,
"Someone is getting squeezed, going bankrupt now because they're stuck at the back of the board."
Some guy on Bloomberg just now, with Sue Keenan, on 17% rise in far out future contracts.
Prices for airfare tickets have shot up substantially in the past few months as well. This is to be expected. I fly almost every week, so I may have to cut down on my flights. That wouldn't be too bad, if I could convince my employer to let me work from home more often. ;)
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
Airlines cutting flights is very tangible U.S. oil demand destruction through airline travel supply destruction. Small city/medium city airports are on their way to becoming great places for open air fleemarkets. Here's a graph from the New York Times:
Interesting-at that pace Pittsburgh closes down in 10 years.
The point is I think that a massive retreat in airline travel is already well underway. The airlines are in a recession already from the demand side, and facing inflationary costs from fuel prices. Squeezed in that manner, the only opportunity for airlines to raise prices is to reduce supply. This is already happening through consolidation, smaller airlines going bankrupt, and bigger airlines slashing flights and elminating routes.
At that point the path is cleared for doubling, tripling, etc. of ticket prices.
There will always be some who can afford airline travel. High end vacationers and business travelers. The big airports maybe will stay in business, but you have to question current projects like O'Hare's expansion. Another tragic misallocation of precious infrastructure resources at the peak.
One indirect effect of this is that Virgin Airlines, who had pledged to spend all their profits on researching alternative fuels, won't have any profits to spend.
It will also be tough to finance more fuel efficient planes.
This is starting to show just how tough it will be to pay for an infrastructure to cope with expensive and short supplies of energy.
At least prior to the heavy use of airplanes to travel there was an extensive rail network and bus travel was cheap.
Travelling far will be very difficult indeed in the States.
People scratch their heads about the inelasticity of gasoline demand. Meanwhile the airline industry's demand for jet fuel turns out to be highly elastic.
Har! At that point it will no longer be 'Virgin' Airlines 'cause they will have been f***d.
I have to give you some sort of virtual high five for that one... made my day.
Funny!
hahahahahahahah
As I noted a few weeks back, more fuel efficient planes already exist--they are turboprops. And if airlines want to remain in business, those are the types of planes they will fly. Jets will remain for the megawealthy and military and perhaps sports teams. If Boeing was smart, they'd scrap the current jet-powered Dreamliner and replace it with one powered by far more efficient turboprops.
My guess is that they will dust off the old plans for unducted fans and bolt them in place on the current jets.
Jets will remain for the megawealthy and military and perhaps sports teams.
Or maybe just the megawealthy and military...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24728006
AKH
No wonder the Spurs sat on the tarmac at New Orleans for 14 hours after their victory, thinking it would be smarter to save time to fly directly to LAX than going home first. I wonder what Atheletic Department Heads are thinking about their transport budget, not the mention the future of their business.
'Not ManCon', thanks for the info. Now, we know that this is getting serious!
Yes I was thinking the same thing. The other airlines can't be far behind. It is sad especially for an expat who needs to return once in a while to visit family there.
My family and I booked a flight to LA in July back in February. Tickets were cheap then. I fear this may be the last airline trip for awhile.
Increasing numbers of people are going to discover that the last airline trip they took will be the last airline trip they ever take.
I knew all of this was coming down the pipe, so I cashed in my frequent flier miles a few months ago for my trip to Japan next month. :) First and LAST time I'll get to do it.
the value of FF miles may be interesting; they will eventually be worth nothing at all, but in the short term they're worth more. Look for near zero availability if you try booking tickets, and rising miles requirements. Might be good to book awards asap even if you THINK you might want to go somewhere, before the restrictive new language gets put in.
Yep yep, glad I went to Kauai with my wife for our 10 year a few months early (March vs. August).
She's going to visit relatives this summer, but already got her tickets.
I think things are starting to fall into place:
If the airlines are cutting routes, then they will have less need for new aircraft (some of the ones they have will be stored or retired permanently)
However, this will still not be enough for some airlines to stave of bankruptcy. Their route slots (and the newer aircraft) may be bought up by the survivors. While taking on new routes would normally require additional aircraft, because of the above, the survivors again will have less demand for new equipment (short termism, I know, but I reckon the survivors will lurch from crisis to crisis, without much hope of a long term, more fuel efficient solution).
Which makes the announcement from Boeing that the 787 first flight has been pushed back (again) to around 3Q 2008 seem more like an economic "wait and see" than genuine technical difficulties. After all, why bust a gut sorting out the known problems when some of the airlines who have ordered it may not be there to accept the delivery.
The recent announcement in the UK that the third runway at Heathrow "should go ahead" is, I suspect political bluster - by the time the inevitable public enquiry has taken place (the one for Terminal 5 was one of the longest ever, and it only required the re-siting of a reservoir. The third runway will require the destruction of an entire village and around 4000 properties), there will be no demand for expansion at any airport, so the construction contracts will not even need to be let.
AKH
They are not blustering about the third runway.
They simply have no clue.
The planning system anyway operates in a totally disconnected manner to ecological or even rational considerations.
No priority is given to green technologies, and it does not lead to more favourable consideration of applications.
In any case, the brief of the relevant authorities will not include any reference to where the fuel for these planes will come from.
Recently new terminals for the import of LNG were completed at a cost of several billions.
No thought was given to where it was to come from, nor does the fact that no tankers have docked impact those who were responsible in any way financially.
The present establishment in Britain brings to mind Turkish authorities in the 19th century, in terminal decline and called 'the sick man of Europe'.
It is the type of "planning" that takes an exponential growth curve and extrapolates it into infinity.
I'd agree that the politicians have no clue.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7106524.stm
If this had been said back in around 2000, I'd have had some doubts about it being completed. However, for something said the day after oil had, according to Wikipedia hit a new high of $99.29 per barrel, "not a clue" does not even begin to describe it.
Funny you mention the "sick man of Europe" - seems like parts of the UK already have that tag!
AKH
Agree - as one of 60,000,000 people im this country I Am continually amazed atthe dialogue on a third runway. Nowhere do you heare some one say - 'uh, the fuel price will render this redundant.' Gobsmacking ignorance. nd these folk had the best of 15 years of intensive education. Muppets.
Funny, because I was in Pittsburgh yesterday, and they are expanding the airport like crazy. All kinds of new roads and stuff being built.
I visited the Carnegie Museum. They have a display on fossil fuels, which includes a big chunk of coal (probably fake), and a display of different samples of oil.
(I actually went there to see the new dinosaur display, which is very cool. Definitely worth a look if you're in the area.)
I do not believe it is fake, as far as I remember. I believe it is a sample of anthracite derived from the central Pennsylvania region.
Interesting. I didn't realize anthracite was that hard. Somehow, I expected coal to be dirty and rub off on your hands or something, but this was more like a very hard and shiny plastic.
Anthracite is very hard and shiny - almost like a black glass. You were probably thinking of bituminous coal, a.k.a. "soft coal", which is as you describe.
Charcoal used at cookouts was derived from the partial combustion of hardwood. It rubbed off on one's hands. Charcoal was made from the branches and scraps leftover from timber cutting. Making charcoal is a way to get renewable energy from cellulose. In years gone-by charcoal was used for smelting iron, cooking, and heating.
It seems...they could have the dinosaur display right in there with the fossil fuel display !
Pittsburgh has a lot of reminders of the wealth created during the beginning of the fossil fuel age. 150 years later, the museums, buildings and trust funds are still here. I dooubt the wealth created during the end of the fossil fuel age will create much enduring beauty for the average person.
Why on earth would a museum in Pennsylvania use fake coal? The place is loaded with coal. Actually that piece has probably kicked around the museum for 100 years. No link, just a Carnegie-Mellon alum.
Because it's one of those "touch exhibits." It's put down low, sticking out into the walkway, so little kids can touch it, climb on it, etc. Those are often replicas.
"little kids can touch it, climb on it, etc."
but did you ? touch it, climb on it, etc ?
I touched it. It felt like plastic.
Anthracite kinda does. One Xmas my brother got coal for family as gifts, nice-looking shiny lumps of anthracite he pilfered from the Indiana University physical plant coal-pile. In addition to the tradition of getting coal in one's xmas stocking, it was actual aesthetically nice stuff, and the hunks were used as doorstops and paperweights for years.
My guess is that it is a real lump of coal that has been coated in clear plastic to make it suitable for exhibition display (and touching). So not very real to touch, but not fake either.
How about a 10c/gallon gas tax to help fund a nationwide high speed train network like Europe. These days, unless you have your own private jet, long distance travel sucks (lines, waits, cancellations, high gas prices, etc.).
Far too sensible!
If ONLY our fuel duty and road taxes were actually hypothecated. But they are not.
This is why we are fast running out of options. We will not be able to tool up for mass transit. We will not be able to re-orientate power generation to Nuclear , wave, tidal etc fast enough and more money will spill out over time to by fuels such as gas and oil as the UKCS winds down.
11 years of a huge working govenment majority and what have we got for it?
A dome.
Fox hunting ban
Smoking ban.
More people on Government payrolls or clients of government largesse.
Two wars we cannot win.
We are not going to make Dave. We just wont have the spare cash in 5 years time.
I think you are right.
Did you see a couple of posts of mine on this thread?
The EU is upping pollution regulations for power stations, which will mean that a lot will close early, to go with the ones that are shutting due to age anyway.
Losses which will be incurred with Northern Rock are also becoming apparent to the merest fool - ie the Government.
We have, or can fairly soon have, the technology needed to deal with oil running low, but in the UK and US at least trying to do that on the back of a trashed financial system and monumentally incompetent administration seems perhaps too difficult without major breakdowns.
I am significantly more pessimistic now than previously, as we will get hit at the end of this year with no preparations made at all.
It is going to get very cold in the UK before long.
Yes Dave, I read both your posts (I always read your posts).
Euan Mearns had / has a useful graph of the economic future that he plotted for a presentation. The graph plotted an inexorable decline.
Our demise as a Nation is a mathematical certainty.
Cheers - I've contacted Euan to try to get a copy - it seems rather important.
Hello Mudlogger,
In a much earlier speculative posting: the UK's best biosolar habitat is Rhodesia again.
Somebody will eventually put that currently fallow topsoil to good use once the existing population falls to minimal levels. Time will tell if China beats the UK to this location.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Totoneila:
China - they have more useful products to offer to the surviving caste :-(
Hello Mudlogger,
Thxs for responding. Don't be so sure about China beating the UK to a New Rhodesia: In a postPeak world, with a universal tradition of the 'Peakoil Shoutout', the ability to still make Scotch and other priceless Grogs will probably be worth magnitudes more than all the tea in China!
Totoneila,
where will we get the energy to make Scotch in bulk?
Hello Mudlogger,
Alcohol, or as I prefer to call it: "The Nectar of the Gods"--has proven its timeless value ever since its invention. WTSHTF, I have no doubts that energy will be found to make booze--even if it takes the sacrifice of the last tree on the planet to power the still.
Fortunately many of the Scottish distilleries are located near hydro-electric plants :-)
Peat of course. That's what's always made the best
If it's any consolation, as I'm sure you know in the U.S. we have had 6ish (?) years of a supposedly financially conservative majority in both houses of congress and the white house and what do we have to show for it? Deficit spending: one trillion dollar foreign war that has done nothing to increase our security or our prosperity (evidence seems to be indicating it did and is doing rather the opposite), one smaller somewhat forgotten war that may or may not have improved our security or our prosperity, 9.4 trillion dollar national debt, etc. The list is too long to continue... but for all this, there are warning signs that our existing infrastructure might be in dire need of upkeep (bridges falling down, 50 year old highways). That's to say nothing of the cost and time that will be required to replace our existing infrastructure with something more reasonable for $200 oil.
10c/gallon increase per month coupled with a 10c/hour minimum wage increase at the same time. We keep at it until supply again exceeds demand and direct the revenue into rail electrification and such.
Not enough, especially when you realize that as prices continue to go up, motor fuel usage will start going down, reducing your revenues. A good start, though. Maybe by 2016 or 2020 we'll get around to acting on it.
How about spending $300 billion on a proper rail network rather than the $300 billion farm pork bill Congress just passed.
I believe that a better name for the bill you are talking about would be "The Nutrition Bill".
I think (correct me if I am wrong) that almost 2/3 of that 300 billion goes to people other than farmers. School lunch programs and things like that. Most of the "pork" in the bill is "earmarks" that have nothing to do with farming.
It was the Republican President that tried to put a limit of $200,000 max net farm income in order to receive farm program payments, but the Democratic controlled congress that demanded that the limit be raised to $750,000 or $1,500,000. Seems like it's backwards, but that was the way it was?
That's crazy talk!
Bet Bob Shaw comes up with a plan for all those closed airports in Arizona.
But what is the deal with Pittsburgh?
I expect our postPeak desert airports to be extremely, incredibly busy as landing zones:
http://www.huaren.com/UnitedNations/photo-1.htm
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Is Brazil starting their Federal Reserve Bank of I-NPK?
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2029388120080520?sp=true
------------------
CUIABA, Brazil, May 20 (Reuters) - Brazil may nationalize privately held mineral deposits used to make fertilizer to bring down farm production costs, Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes said.
-----------------
Recall my Fort Knox posting: gold bullion bunkers outside to protect the seeds and I-NPK inside. IMO, as explained in Jeff Vails' last keypost thread: market contango in I-NPK occured sometime ago when sulphur went up thirteenfold.
Have you hugged your bag of NPK today?
Yes, I have hugged my bag of NPK
Now I'm going to the market to buy 100kg of basmati rice, from Pakistan, if there is any on the shelf.
Average Annual Australian rice crop typically 12 million tonnes. This year we managed 18 thousand tonnes.
Totoneila Sir, as westexas, you can be an investment consultant. I fully understand your realist scenario's. Not that I have money to invest, but I will try to squeeze me and my descendants through that bottleneck.
Thank you
( Yes Nate, I read TOD for a comparative advantage )
Hello PaulusP,
Thxs for responding, but I would have strongly preferred reading and posting about positive mitigation events that would have proved me Wildly Wrong. Maybe there is still an open timeframe for some Optimal Decline...
Hmm... Ya know, I am pretty much a hawk and more or less not a fan of "humanitarian aid" on it's face. I generally am of the opinion that if you want to help the poor people of botswala, then the thing to do is open a shoe factory there. Famines seem to me to almost always be caused directly by local government. But.... WHAT KINDA SICK TWISTED PIECE OF RODENT EXCREMENT WOULD SEE THAT, TAKE A PICTURE AND WALK AWAY?!?
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5241442
According to wikipedia he was in the area for only 30 minutes, the time it took his plane to unload relief supplies.
He was surrounded by death and starvation on an unimaginable scale. What did you want him to do for that girl? What could he possible have done?
But I'm sure you've done your part. After all you've bought new shoes...
maybe.... Pick her up and walk the 1 km to the UN food station? NAH, guess that'd just be impossible.
I have in fact done my bit and I really do not like sanctimonious pious crap from judgemental nimrods like you.
The picture was taken *inside* the UN aid station.
That's why he was there. He flew in on the UN plane delivering food for the camp.
Are you sure you just wouldn't pick her up and walk the 1km to the Nike factory?
What about all the other kids in exactly the same situation that he did not happen to photograph? Which one does he pick and then carry past all the other dying kids begging for similar help along the street? How do you know how you would react on seeing something so utterly overwhelmingly horrendous all around you for the first time? Overall he alone probably did more good by taking that picture and spreading awareness around the world than almost anyone else. Certainly way more than "your bit" or my bit.
For goodness sake the guy ended up killing himself after his experience there. So so easy to critize from your comfortable distance in space and time. I think you fit the "judgemental nimrod" description perfectly, although I'd pick far stronger words.
I have in fact done my bit
Given the needs of the world, almost none of us have "done our bit". There is a great limitation in vision to think that you have.
I am working with Hans Herren, who (according to Wikipedia) "single handily prevented a famine affecting 200 million Africans". He sees that as Step 1, *NOT* as "having done his bit", and he is now working on Climate Change and Energy Use.
Best Hopes for NEVER having "done their bit" till their dying day,
Alan
I would.
When you are faced with overwhelming human suffering and distress, you either pick your "best shots"/triage or you run away.
I chose to stay and do what I can.
Alan
The kind that would have enough courage to kill himself 6 months later, as was mentioned in the caption you don't seem to have read.
We were not there.
There are several versions of the story behind this photo on the Wiki and none seems definitive. The man took a wonderful (and terrible) photograph ... and then took his own life. Those who have not been there, I think, should not be trying to judge those who were. That isn't aimed at the poster, it's a general statement about needing to walk a mile in someone else's boots.
Justly spoken and well taken.
Use them as sites for Solar Thermal. :)
Ex-airports are ideal. Wide expanses of treeless ground, flat, usually relativly close to the users of the power they would generate.
We lost USAir as a hub, after we built a brand new airport for them.
Ah yes, the rewards of the free enterprise system at its best.
/sarcanol
Pittsburgh used to be a Usair hub, but they're consolidating in Philly, so Pgh is out of luck.
What has happened before will happen again. The airline industry is beginning to revert back to being a luxury for the wealthy.
** AVERAGE ** SUVs bought in 2007 are now down by about 50% from its 2007 purchase price
this is extreme information, someone are actually starting to understand where things are moving , contango, et al.
CNBC did a segment on this. My favorite part is where Mark Haines explains that his suburban has a 42 gallon tank and gets 18 MPG, so even though it's expensive to fill up, he doesn't have to do it that often.
Driving tips to save on fuel:
http://maxyourmpg.com/
Also,
http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx
Give's new meaning to living in a red state (which is where I am). Never understood that since I live in the SF bay area where we have refineries a-plenty here.
But some vehicles are holding their value very well. The formerly unloved classic
a 1991 Geo Metro just sold on Ebay for $6776.00 others similary priced. A remarkable $19 non adjusted depreciation over 17 years!
I have not checked on the value of lime green Volvos but I would wager they are in contango as well :-)
If you are a very low mileage driver it might be worth considering picking up a SUV in a year or so's time if you currently drive a small car.
The rationale goes like this:
High mileage drivers should be desperate by then to buy something smaller, so you should get top dollar.
However, they will not be expecting petrol prices to continue to climb, which may make continuing their present mileage even in a smaller car not an effective strategy, so even the prices of smaller cars could fall at a later date.
You would then be driving a much newer vehicle than you could otherwise afford, and it will have been depreciated at the expense of the previous owner, so you will have a lot of money to afford the small amount of petrol you need for the low mileage you do.
You will also have a vehicle much better adapted to cope with roads in very poor condition than most very compact cars.
It would also be suitable at a later stage to use for transporting heavy loads for pay, as most people will no longer have access to vehicles capable of this.
The huge areas of space would mean that you could also fit batteries for very short runs.
You might even pick up a second one for spares :-)
I use an electric scooter in city. Am in the market for an all-electric vehicle with a 150+ mile range.
Anybody here know any detailed information about Nacel Energy (NCEN)? It's a small development stage wind energy company that has only recently brought any actual power online for sale to utilities. I have bought a few hundred shares over the past month and done very well (50%+), but am wondering just how long term a future this company has. Thanks in advance.
We were talking about markets and commodities, counter party risks and who controls those markets.
Adequate oversight of foreign exchange contracts?
Farm Press Editorial Staff
http://deltafarmpress.com/news/foreign-exchange-0520/
(ed note: folks, please DON'T PASTE THE WHOLE ARTICLE, leave a link and a blockquote of a couple of paragraphs, let the reader determine if they want to click. It is called linkjacking.)
Tommy Friedman on Power
If I was the CFO for OPEC, those three wouldn't be on my list-maybe RIG, SU and TNH.
GM really ought to produce an automobile in honor of Tom Friedman. It would be called the Bravado and it would run on hot air.
The Sage of Oil? ...hmm I thought it was the Drum?
Folks, just a reminder or two...
1. TOD is on twitter now with our RSS feed: http://twitter.com/theoildrum. If you are a tweeter, erm twitterer, erm, give us a follow.
2. If you have a blog, or are a member of a messageboard, or play at a link farm like metafilter or anything else, the more you plant links to our stuff, the more eyes it gets...it's that simple. Every little bit helps.
We're all doing this for free, and we really do need and appreciate your support. That and "doing good" is what keeps us all going.
Thanks...
You got it. TOD is on my site, thewellrundry.blogspot.com.
But I have a question: I know that there is a significant minority of people in the US who are aware of peak oil, climate change, and the burgeoning failures in our societal systems. Is that minority growing? Do you see more people waking up? Or are people still mostly listening to Rush Limbaugh, watching NASCAR on ESPN, reading about Britney in People magazine, and tuning in to Ollie North on Fox Network? Are we doing any good (or as much good as might be hoped at a time like this?)
IMHO, the % of Americans that have given up on the overall society is increasing-many of these are working on their own lifeboats. The Rush types will be running with the herd right over the cliff.
I am going to make an unpopular comment!
I am about as far to the right policically as anyone on TOD. I come to find good technical information on Peak Oil and just grit my teeth and wade through all the abusive political and stereotyping rhetoric to try to get useful information.
Most of my friends that are right of center get Peak Oil, but I can never send them to TOD because of the level of abusive political rhetoric and abusive language.
If posters on this list want to comminucate with people with different political viewpoints about Peak Oil then posters on this list are going to have to learn some manners - Or forever fail in your efforts to communicate effectively about Peak Oil.
Political bashing and mashing and societal stereotyping won't help get the message out on Peak Oil!
I used to be pretty far right too, and you'll be surprised as to how many other people here were too, if they are brave & honest enough to admit it.
Unfortunately, I must be blunt about it: We have been sold a bill of goods, and have been had, big time. IMHO, the right wing has pretty much utterly discredited itself. All that remains is for the full extent of the catastrophic consequences to play themselves out on display for all to see.
This in no way suggests that I swallow leftism or socialism wholesale. I do not. Criticism of the right does not imply uncritical approval of the left. Frankly, I'm ready to call down a curse on both their parties.
I'm sure some people will feel offended and uncomfortable when they visit this website, but maybe is is way past time they were forced outside their comfort zone. A lot of people need to be shaken up for their own good.
The institutionalised incompetence of both the British and US establishments goes far beyond mere questions of right and left.
Losses are socialised and profits privatised, and both parties are deeply implicated, and it goes far beyond the overtly political figures to the institutions running the land, with even the statistics on which decisions must be based skewed into meaninglessness.
Bravo!! Clap! Clap!
But who to vote for?
Who indeed?
It seems Americans have a choice of Hilary, who wants to nuke Iran, McCain, who wishes to stay in Iraq for 100 years, and Obama, who stands for change, he says, but keeps the financing from special interest lobbies, which one would have thought was distinctly more of the same.
Far from having a plan to deal with present circumstances, they are united in not even recognising that a problem exists.
Dave, don't you have an election coming in the UK?
Yeah, sometime - I don't follow the details, and in the UK the governing party can call an election at any time up to 5 years after it was elected.
We can throw these idiots out for their near criminal incompetence, but there is no sign that the other lot understand what is going on any better.
All the UK institutions are deeply implicated in the mess we have got ourselves into, so it is not just the government but the whole apparatus for running the country which is not performing, and is not set up to be capable of performing.
Of the developed countries with the possible exception of some in southern Europe Britain has possibly the worst chances of successful adaption.
We even import most of our food.
By about the new year ferocious cut backs will have to be implemented as the budget deficit and balance of payments will be spiralling out of control.
All the financial indicators are worse than in the US.
I'm sure that from Gordy's perspective now, the ideal time to call a snap election was eight months ago.
My curiosity was aroused, so I looked up the date of the last election, it was May 2005, so May 2010 should be the deadline.
We have system here that if the Government gets a vote of no confidence, then an election is called.
Most Labour MPs though will not want to be out of a job, and want to hang on as long as possible.
If I were left leaning, I would join the Liberal Democrats now, as Labour will be out of power for a generation at least after the election, and might even cease to exist.
2005-2010 should neatly cover the collapse of the country.
I expect an emergency budget in the fall, as by then it should be apparent even to complete idiots, ie the government, that the budget deficit and balance of payments are spiralling out of control.
They have recently started preparations to build new aircraft carriers, and employed 300 people at the Ministry of Defence for that, but I guarantee they will never be built.
More seriously, the projected off-shore wind of 33GW nameplate, around 10GW coal-plant equivalent, at £99bn before allowing for connection and backup will be totally unfineacable.
I would expect moves to open new deep-mine coal pits, and, finally, some emergency action on nuclear energy - but probably they won't even have the guts to confront that for another couple of years.
Still, at least we have built plenty of LNG terminals at a cost of several billions- just a shame that no tankers are coming in.
Siwmae (Hiya) Dave and all Drummers,
I lurk a lot more than I post here, because I have no professional technical expertise in the relevant subjects that TOD kicks around, but I'm so impressed by the quality of this site -- the commentariat included -- that I can't keep away.
Like Dave and plenty of other Brits, I'm just reduced to something near incredulous silence at the sheer incompetence of our ruling establishment, at anything but taking care of their own fairly short-term, minority special interests.
But there's more. It isn't just incompetence. They seem to have this real, serious block on keeping abreast with what's really happening in the world. There's an old joke that compares such people to 'chickens without chimneys'. You know: absolutely clucking flueless......
Only yesterday or the day before, some farty little Ministerette announced that airport expansion will be going ahead massively, in anticipation of a vast increase in air travel here...... You just don't know what to say about such disconnection from current and -- especially -- upcoming reality. Still, at least we can comfort ourselves with the thought that - no, it won't be going ahead, whatever governmentbigbiz says, because there will be no means and no demand.
But really what I wanted to say in this post is that USukis (I don't consider them separate entities: one dog, two tails) has been living in the sort of extreme dreamworld, grotesquely disconnected from the grimmer aspects of reality, which is only possible for the metropolitan community of an empire at the end of its life. This disconnect is most extreme in the US. Even here in Britain, dissidents such as me can look at things across the pond in gobsmacked wonder at the sheer unreality of it all. Really, the indescribably stupid and criminal SUVs -- 'suckertrucks', as I prefer to call them these days -- say it all as a symbol of the madness and off-the-scale irresponsibility of the citizens of the metropolis of the empire.
But actually, there are SUVs of the mind too. A lot of the doctrines and political attitudes of the US, with which we in Britain have been force-fed in recent times by our public propaganda system (the Permanent Bullshit Blizzard, as I call it) are equally pathological, and delusional. Only possible because large numbers of metropolitan citizens of an empire can live their whole lifespans in all-encompassing shared bubbles of delusional unreality which are never challenged by the real world because the metropolitans live such cossetted and reality-shielded lives, from birth to death.
As energy -- and everything else -- reaches the Limits To Growth, and the down-slope to Olduvai opens before us, I suspect that a good deal of that unreality will evaporate perforce; is evaporating right now, in fact. God help us all........
I just post this in response to some of the political expression which has opened out a little on this thread. I think a good deal of these delusional political positions will be colliding with reality from about now. Cognitive dissonance in Spades, I expect.
Incidentally, my permaculture minifarm here is looking better and better, without any need for inorganic NPK input, and no sign of phosphate starvation. But then, I'm of the Fukuoka/Mollison/Holmgren/Blume persuasion, so those constrictions don't really apply to the way we do food-growing. Look into it, seriously. We of the Pampered Twenty Percent of the world's people are going to need this sort of survival-ag with a vengeance over the next little while.
In Canada we've at least got a major party candidate who talks the talk:
(from the DB a few days ago -- I know it's Leanan-taboo to dredge up past articles, but when the cat's away...)
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/424711
Apparently all we need to do up here is to give Dion $500 and he'll... uhh... do something. I have to say I quite like Dion, but he's proving to be every bit as gun shy as Paul Martin.
In the apocryphal words of the little old lady from Maine:
"I never vote - it just encourages the bastards"
:-)
Vote for the best candidate for mayor of your town.
A write in for "None of the above" is looking better by the day.
Hong Kong is a well run capitalist state and Sweden is a well run socialist state. Either system can work if you have competent people.
But the incompetence of some of the current politicians is just (searching for a word here ...) *AWESOME*.
Bravo! I agree wholeheartedly. Down with mindless ideologies. Up with good old wishy-washy pragmatism!
And for our next question. Candidate A: how do you intend to ensure the minimum number of americans starve to death during the coming inevitable peak oil induced die off of a significant percentage of the world's population?
Democracies don't deal well with lifeboat situations. There either has to be enough for everyone or someone gets voted out of the lifeboat by the majority.
So are they rooting for PO to happen more quickly? I'll concede that the left has been bad on drilling, but the right's antipathy to efficiency and renewables far outweighs it.
The political right deserves all the vituperation it receives, and then some. If you don't like it, tune in the likes of Rush. He's probably more your speed.
It is my opinion that both sides deserve contempt for different reasons. The rhetoric about Limbaugh, etc., isn't helpful., but neither was Limbaugh's rhetoric about environmentalist wackos.
Instead, we need to spend time educating and helping people get past the ways that things have worked previously.
unfortunately, I believe resource depletion is going to breed a new kind of ideology, folks...and we need to think about that.
That "new" kind of ideology is actually ancient. It's the ideology that's ecocentric rather than anthropocentric, and values diversity above narrow self-interest. No conundrum there since that which is in the interest of the biosphere is often likewise in the interest of the individual. I fail to understand how the engenderment of such an ideology - by resource depletion or otherwise - can be seen as "unfortunate."
agreed. I use "unfortunate" simply for the process by which it seems we will get there. The end result may not be so bad, sure.
Agree 100% Charlie pup.
I can see it, can't put it into words, very simple, self evolves from a few blatently obvious first principles of natural living systems.
Huge change. How to engineer it?
Problem is Prof. Goose, for people to accept the required education, they must step out of their ideological box. Just coming to grips with the clear fact that the Club of Rome was correct about there being limits to growth is anathema to most folks because that Truth dashes their hopes and dreams. But given the topic, I'm very pleased at the civility and relative lack of political discussion that could easily turn theoildrum.com into nothing but a shouting match, and the valuable realtime discussion would be replaced by moderators.
We have several BIG problems, one of which is Peak Oil. Can we solve it? NO. It is imposssible to solve because oil is finite. Then, what do we do? (Now we must arrive at some course of action that must be decided politically.) Many, including myself, have provided answers, many of which are unpopular because most require sacrifice and some level of collectivism--essentially the end of unrestrained individualism which masquarades as freedom. Most importantly, what approaches is the end of Insularity, for the Other now becomes Us.
But how far down the rabbit hole shall we go.
Our ideologies are just so enormously abstracted from reality.
I fear in practice that the worst of our thinking will just get worserer,
and anything sensible will just get IGNORED.
Jon: That isn't an unpopular comment-that is a stupid comment. Matt Simmons has never claimed he was Trotsky or Fidel-if someone criticizing Rush (that useless junkie) stresses you out you should chill-save your energy for picketing the lesbian sponsored abortion mill.
Jon,
Don't despair. Readers of TOD cover a wide range on the political spectrum. No one has a crystal ball into the future and much of the political commentary is speculative.
This is not a left / right issue: easy to reach, abundant and high quality petroleum is harder to find. All of us are culpable to the charge of collective gluttony: hardly anyone opted out of the industrial and commercial complex that has given us the material comforts of the late 20th / early 21st centuries, whether they brand themselves as liberal or conservative.
Yes, some of the debate is posturing; some of it is very informative. Take the good with the bad.
Invite your friends along. Opposition is healthy in any discussion group. The main thing is to get the message out.
Zadoc ( didn't Sean Connery play you in some futureistic movie?)
It looks like your services are going to be in great demand here very soon and it sounds like you are in the right place (spiritually or what ever you want to call it) to deal with it.
None the less you got your work cut out for you.
Cheers! At least I hope you imbibe cause IMO you are going to need it.
P.S. Thanks for your words of moderation aimed at me a while back. I seem to be bouncing back and fourth between anger and acceptance.
Naw, that was Zardoz with the line THE GUN IS GOOD THE PENIS IS EVIL!
Cheers souperman & eric. Nice compliments. Wow! Sean Connery in Zardoz. If only I looked like him. Alas, sigh...
Looks like with oil at $135/barrell we all got our work cut out for us. A good stiff drink may be what's required. Everything in moderation, of course.
Reading the blog above, my faith that the distilleries will remain open is reassured. There are several wineries in my neighbourhood (Annapolis Valley, Nova Scotia) and I'm within driving distance (by car or stage coach) of the Cape Breton Whiskey distilleries. You've got to love those Scots and their descendants.
Give me a break. Nobody but nobody surpasses right-wing folks in the systematic deployment of rank abusive rhetoric and language, spin, and deceit. Trying to represent yourself as some sort of victim is truly pathetic.
But leaving that aside, there are all kinds of political views represented here. The flavor here is mostly moderate or slightly "right" of center.
Jon,
There is very little in the way of "abuse" here - Leanan is swift to strike :-) I'd like an example of what you're troubled by, but I'll bet it's the relentless criticism of the powers that be. They richly deserve it for their bumbling.
We're at the end of an age. Old institutions will fail to make the transition and the United States in its current form is the first on the chopping block. We're a failed empire and the sooner we internalize that the quicker we can move on to whatever is next. Clinging to that makes an even bigger mess than Bush has made these last eight years.
If I didn't guess at what is troubling you, and we can scarcely address the issues without simply dumping lots of treasured institutions, then please do inform me of what it is that so troubles your cohorts.
Neal
hmm... This reminds me quite a lot of a conversation I was having a while back with a friend. It seems that at some point, I can't exactly say when, the engineering issue of energy became highly political. The political is by definition divisive.
The issues with that are many, starting with the fact that politicians and in fact most people are very very ignorant of matters technical, and most technical minded people are very very ignorant of matters political.
It seems to have broken like this, the left seized on efficiency improvements and would hear nothing about expanding capacity. The rightists seized on expanding capacity and would hear nothing about efficiency.
Both sides blocked whatever was actually attempted in their "backyards".
The result seems to have been that nothing was done for many years to either expand capacity or improve efficiency. It is always easier to block a project than it is to complete one.
It is my opinion that things probably would have been better if we had taken one side and gone with it. There is an old saying "lead, follow or get out of the way", and.... I think it was immediately after reagan that everyone stopped doing that. Since then it has been a game of "block the opposition, then blame them for not getting anything done". That sounds like fun when things are easy and no actions are needed, but we have held to it for far too long.
Now, I am a libertarian, I believe that government is an evil to be used as an absolute last resort. That puts me at odds with basically everyone, a circumstance which I have had time to get used to. However, in my observation, the leftist side of the equation is by far the more abusive and less civil party in most discourses. The modern republicans have none of my respect either, they have simply failed to walk the walk on the sensible side of the platform (they were SUPPOSED to be FISCAL conservatives), and have avidly pursued the side of their agenda with which I most strongly disagree (Socially restrictive).
Face it guys, we all spew venom, those of you who blast Limbaugh should develop thicker skins to insults cast against Clinton. Those of you who blast gore get used to attacks on W.
Jane Austin remarked that virtue and vice is pretty evenly distributed between the sexes, and the same seems likely to apply to followers of major political parties, as does the temptation to abuse those of a different persuasion.
That is an excellent way of putting it, spot on!
There are only three ingredients that can be mixed in this recipie: capacity (especially and increasingly including renewables), efficiency, or curtailments. With capacity and efficiency both being blocked, that leaves only curtailments.
Our per capita energy use and our per capita GDP are going down. We are going to be eating a "curtailments pie", since efficiency and capacity have both been exlcuded from the mix. Get used to it, and plan on it.
For me, pointing out the horrid things the current administration/right wing has done over the last 16 years is necessary. We have to build a depth of understanding that will never allow such disgusting abuse of the political process to ever happen again. It is absolutely critical people come to understand what a tragedy it has been and will be if we allow this shit to continue on. We will end up in a feudal/fascist hell if we don't change things.
In my experience, anyone who can't get past some negative verbiage to look at the useful content isn't the type that is going to listen, period, so don't sweat it. While it's unfortunate to have small-minded friends, they are not your responsibility in the end. Let them throw the baby out with the bathwater if they choose.
Cheers
My guess is many people are too busy to deal with all that, including PO aware people. There is a lot in between Rush Limbaugh, sports, magz etc. and PO awareness.
Do you see more people waking up?
The total number of responses for drumbeats is up. So yea.
Heck, on CNBC today they were all saying "The oil is running out!, The oil is running out!".(close enough, they can learn the fine nuances later.) They kept rerunning the interview with Pickens from yesterday saying we will never again be able to meet demand. I think they finally got the message. I couldn't believe my eyes and ears. If anything, I think CNBC caused the market sell off, by leaving their message that everthing is fine, time to buy.
I'm looking at buying some futures to finance my post peak plans. Is it to hot right now?
I have recently moved out of oil futures because I personally think they are "too hot". If you're looking semi-long term, you might want to look at natural gas. First off all, NG is still fairly backwardized vs the oil contango, which means you can generate an income by riding it in even w/o a spot increase. Second there is a fairly strong correlation between oil and nat. gas price at a ratio of about 10.9 over the last 20 yrs. (as quoted recently in an article just last week on the oil drum, I don't have the link), with an r value of something like 0.9. In my mind, it means you can be fairly confident if oil keeps running (or the $ keeps falling), NG should follow. Finally, there are about 70% more Btus in a NG contract than a CL contract (10 billion vs ~5.6 billion), while the Ng contract is running at about a 25-30% discount (95 to 110 k in 2012 vs 130k for oil). I think in time this will converge as cheaper NG BTUs are substituted to produce or replace oil BTU's--think ng used for tar sands or LNG cars in Brazil. Boone Pickens alluded to the concept on CNBC just the other day. This should cause the price per BTU to converge and could lead to an even faster run-up for NG going forward. Similar phenomenon to what happened to "corn" BTU's as they converged on oil BTU's via ethanol. Lastly, one just hasn't seen the hype over NatGas that you have over oil the last few months in the news, that means less newbs. pooring money in, and I think less risk of a big short term correction. Just my two cents, not to be taken as investment advice. Anybody else have any thoughts? One last thought, in my mind if you are trying to hedge your own lifetime energy consumption costs, better to do it in NG. I can significantly impact my oil needs in the future, but am far more sensitive to electricity/fertilizer/chemical input cost related to gas.
I take your point, especially concerning a resistance to demand destruction. Having taken up biking to work a year ago I've managed to cut my oil use. However, reducing my food intake is problematic. Thanks for the input.
I was very close to buying this ETF a couple of months ago when it was $2. Now it's $2.79 and I'm kicking myself. Just didn't have enough spare cash at the time.
Your comment suggests maybe it's not too late to get in.
My analysis is that the US still has quite a bit of natural gas in the ground, but it costs more and more to extract, and new wells need to be drilled all the time. If the price goes too low, the new wells don't get drilled, so stockpiles go down, the price goes up, and you get a reasonably cyclical wave. Prices now seem to be above average over the last few years so I think I have missed the best opportunity.
I think the price will still go up in the short term, but I think the producers in the US are still capable of responding to the price and producing more, unlike the oil world.
Coal?
Nat gas is a laggard in the energy complex - not too hot, not too cold. It hasn't even gone above it's high from nearly 3 years ago - an awful long time in this energy bull market. The NG stocks are a little ahead of the oil stocks, however, in breaking out of the near 2 year slump that began early '06. They hardly slumped at all, in fact. I think the NG stocks are seeing a big switch from the dirty, tapped out, politically unstable oil BTUs to the cleaner, newly tapped unconventional supply of domestic NG BTUs. Conventional natural gas in North America peaked way back in '01, but a surprising new flood of CBM, tight gas, and other formerly uneconomical gas fields are ramping up (see Gail the Actuary's recent post on NG).
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 16, 2008
OUCH!!
Yep. Insatiable.
WTI now at just under $132 on the news...
even Brent month upfront just crossed $131, this is picking up pace as we breathe
The blockade of the 2nd european oil port in Lavera-Fos by angry french fishermen surely pours some oil on the crude price fire.
The situation in France is tense to say the least with truckers pondering to join the fishermen in disrupting gas distribution. Reports of fuel (gas and diesel) shortages in the west of France are increasing not only in the south-west, the west, but also now in the surrounds of Marseille (sorry link in French).
I hope the trade unions keep this situation under tight control. If you live in France, keep your tanks full I would say.
Here's Google translate version of your link.
Several service stations dry hypermarkets in the region Marseille
Thanks !
This evening the tension recedes a bit, the french government is pouring money (110 million Euros) on the fire to try to settle things down. Some blockades are lifted "temporarily" to see if the people are willing to follow the trade unions.
More tomorrow.
Low refining margins are obviously hitting imports.
Oil at $132
Another $12 and the terrorists win.
edit: found the quote
http://www.energiekrise.de/e/aspo_news/aspo/Newsletter010.pdf
Not so bad. I'm always watching the total stocks figure, which this week stayed almost unchanged.
What is puzzling me is that they are filling up the SPR... the last several weeks it has been going up roughly by 100,000 bpd. This is far from insignificant, IIRC my native country is using about that much. Now, could there be a worse time of the year to do that? Isn't oil at $130 bad enough to stop it? My first reaction is attribute it to the plain old government incompetence... but maybe there is something we don't know.
The original plan was to have the SPR filled to current capacity by October, which was curious timing, but Congress has put a stop to filling the SPR.
In any case, if we do see the long anticipated/discussed attack on Iran, what I would expect to see is a US effort to control the primary oil producing regions adjoining Iraq, based on two Neocon lines of reasoning: (1) Iraq needs a buffer zone to protect US and Iraqi forces from Iranian incursions and (2) Seizing control of the primary oil fields would deprivethe terrorist Iranian regime of the cash flow that they need to wreak havoc on the world and to develop nuclear weapons. Of course, the truth would be that the Neocons want control of the primary Iranian oil fields.
BTW, Republican Senator Chuck Hagel was quoted yesterday talking about impeachment if Bush makes a move on Iran without explicit congressional approval.
"deprivethe terrorist Iranian regime of the cash flow that they need to wreak havoc on the world and to develop nuclear weapons."
Editorial.
Who's doing the attacking here?
Pre Emptive strikes are against all international law.
I was of course anticipating what the Neocons would use for their defense of their seizure of key Iranian oil fields. My view for some time is that a US move into Iran is to World War Three as Germany's attack on Poland was to World War Two. As I have previously outlined, a French investment banker at ASPO-USA disagreed with my premise. He thought that the US and Western Europe are secretly working together to try control the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf and to direct it away from China.
Don't forget the Japanese Empire's move against the oil-rich Dutch Indies, which in turn required attacking British Malaya, which in turn required attacking the Philippines, which in turn required attacking Pearl Harbor...
Tar baby indeed...
When all they had to do was go to southern Sakhalin Island and look for it there.
Confiscation is a decade faster than development, hence the neocon dweebs' fascination with attacking Iran.
I think you mean confiscation is supposed to be a decade faster than development.
;)
Cheers
They have only been in Iraq for five years now - still five to go.
This is incorrect. The US military has stayed in Iraq since the "end" of the 1st Gulf War, with war being waged economically or with arms against Iraqis for over 15 years, with millions dead, millions wounded, and millions displaced--A Genocide/Holocaust of the first order.
They're horsing around playing nice. I meant confiscation medieval style - putting the populace to the sword. This is where the neocons and the religious fanatics agree - kill 'em all and let god sort 'em out. Or at least it appears to be the case from my superficial inspection.
I have a lot of respect for Sen. Hagel as he has had the courage to step outside of his party's "box". Trying to impeach GWB after an attack on Iran is like locking the barn door after the horse has been stolen.
A pox on the entire Democratic party for not even investigating whether impeachment was doable after they took control of Congress...
The Democrats are holding fire so as to clean house on the whole mess starting 1/20/2009 - no way for Bush to pardon people when he is gone.
The other explanation is that we're totally, completely, utterly screwed as a country because our government is committed to being as worthless as it can be.
I can hear the soundbite now:
'When I ran for this great office, I declared that it was to bring people together, not create division'
'True to my word, I have ordered that no further steps should be taken against officials and members of the previous Administration, and that we can therefore move on together, forward to bring 'Change in America' as one people united under God'
That way his own cronies are likely to be given a free run, and he has not wasted political capital or made enemies in the pursuit of something as trivial as justice.
The New Administration will have more important things to do, tucking in their bibs to more conveniently get their snouts into to trough and get on with pillaging America and the world.
It really chaps my hide that Speaker Pelosi immediately took impeachment off of the table. I don't know what sort of back room deals were brokered, but I think she made a major mistake. Exactly how many laws would the administration have to break before they became impeachable?
BTW, a couple of weeks ago, my wife and I made our bi-annual pilgrimage to the heartland (she was born and raised in Marshalltown, IA. On mother's day, we had lunch with her mother, her aunt, and her three cousins (or as I refer to them, the democratic wing of my wife's family.) One cousin is married to a retired state supreme court justice and the other cousin's son is working for the Obama campaign. The topic of oil prices came up.
When the judge started parroting the typical media reasons for high oil prices (Big Oil is screwing us, speculation, lack of refineries etc.) I proceeded to shoot holes in each of his arguments with well practiced factoids. He couldn't turn the conversation away from oil fast enough!
Given that he is a very intelligent and accomplished man, his unwillingness to consider any alternative views shows how difficult it is to get our message across. I think it gets easier every day with almost 4 dollar a gallon gas, but overcoming the fallacies that politicians and pundits repeat daily is difficult at best.
Especially screeds like this that well illustrate the writer's ignorance.
Well there's plenty of ignorance from writer's on both sides of the aisle. Here is Ann Coulter from 2000.
I don't know about you, but I really would have preferred to have had Gore as president for the last 7 years. The same steps needed to combat global warming (encouraging efficiency and conservation) would have better prepared us for PO.
Also from The Jewish World Review article you reference
Thank God for The Bible.
I found the quoted Ann Coulter's article most shocking. It prompts me to try to show below that you can believe that the Bible contains the word of God and at the same time think radically different than Coulter. And though I'm Christian. I'm quite confident that many Jews have differing views too, e.g. Sharon Astyk.
First, my Bible has for Gen 1:28: "God blessed them, saying: "Be fertile and multiply; fill the earth and subdue it. Have dominion over the fish of the sea...". I have never read "rape" instead of "subdue".
Regarding
the first sentence is plain wrong while the second is plain true. The lower species are indeed for our use, but in order to use them we have to ensure that they keep existing, because "our use" means "the use of the present AND future generations". In order to "have dominion over the fish of the sea", you must not fish them till the very last. "Subdue" the Earth, not "empty" it.
So, the trees in Easter Island were indeed for the Islanders' use. But they should have ensured that the cutting rate matched the reforestation rate, otherwise they would eventually run out of trees and screw the generation that would be living at that time, as they eventually did. (Mind that we are in a worse situation than Easter Islanders, since trees are a conditionally exhaustible resource while fossil fuels are absolutely exhaustible.)
BTW, "Be fertile and multiply; fill the earth and subdue it." is not against stable population levels. It's not "multiply indefinitely". So you may ask "multiply till when?". And the answer is there: till you "fill the earth". Which obviously does not mean the point when there is no more arable land available, but the point at which mankind has reached the maximum possible degree of appropriation of photosynthesis, for plants used as food, animal feed, wood, or (bio)fuel. The critical issue is the trade-off over how much to use as food and how much as biofuel, which equates to population versus consumption per capita.
Superstitious, anthropocentric drivel. No species is any "higher" or "lower" than any other. ALL extant species are the products of 4 billion years of evolution, and are equally well adapted to their environments. Shitcan your puerile supernaturalism and learn some elementary biology. Or else spare us your ridiculous spew.
Thanks BB...That is the most sensible interpretation of God's word that I have ever seen on this site.
Although the story linked to was in the Jewish World Review, Ann Coulter describes herself as Christian.
For the record, the Bible actually has God commanding people to tend the garden, not rape the planet. That part of it has conveniently overlooked and forgotten.
Tend the garden, it is such a joy.
Religion has been so twisted round by numerous commentators since inception(s) that it is meaningless.
Meaningless. Meaningless. Meaningless.
Would I lie to you honey.
but I really would have preferred to have had Gore as president for the last 7 years
Hmmmm. let me think on that. Either Either Cheney for VP or Lieberman.
Hmmm. Darth Vader or the Rep. from the State of Israel...
Toss up I'd say. We would have already have hit Iran had it been Gore.
The problem is, which Al Gore would that have been? We must of had dozens of different versions on display. If the guy had just been more comfortable in his own skin, he would have won beyond all disputing. A real shame, that.
Well we know how well the Bush/Cheney thing has worked out so far. It's still not too late for some urban redesign to take place in Tehran. Dropping bombs is typically good for presidential approval ratings, but the accompanying $400 per barrel of oil might make even the most staunch GWB supporter lose faith.
Do be aware that federal officials can be impeached after they leave office. The purpose is not to remove them from office (which is a moot issue), but to strip them of immunity and clear the way for prosecution for things like, oh, war crimes and crimes against humanity, for example.
Let's just say that if there was any US or Israeli covert infiltration of Mohammad Atta's group and thus foreknowledge of 9/11, its exposure would destroy both political parties. So no impeachment by the Democrats.
That's just crazy enough to be true.
I recall Mike Ruppert's independent investigation of the flight schools allegedly used, and his reports were not good based upon what he already knew about previous use of same by CIA drug flights importing cocaine to be sold to finance its Black Ops. When I met him at the Denver ASPO, I really wanted to talk with him about that but never had the opportunity. Given what I know about how the US Empire operates and the fact that we do know Israeli operators were in the proper position at the proper time to photograph the WTC being hit, such a presumption has a good possibility at being true.
The US intelligence community had a very limited capacity for infiltrating any Muslim group. Even linguists for the signals groups were in short supply. The Mossad has some capacity, but their priority is Muslim Brotherhood groups in the Middle East itself, for obvious reasons.
Just to pour some cold water on this kind of feverish talk.
A radar observer at Pearl Harbor saw planes approaching on his radar screen, this information did not prevent the loss of life that soon occurred.
If you would have studied criticism of the Koran and its errors, you might have presumed these people were likely to be volatile. Not all Islamic nations took part in these attacks. It was wrong for the Bush administration to blame Sadaam for supporting Al Qaeda. Ignorance is not a good excuse for accepting false intelligence while lacking any real intelligence.
From your words to my prayers to God's ears
Well, actually, it's more like locking the barn door after the horse has gone on a seven-year killing spree, but the idea is the same, I guess.
And racked up $700 billion on your credit card.
Rob Riggle from the Daily Show demonstrates the folly of GWB's "war on terror."
Impeaching Bush would have meant removing the lot of them. That would have left nancy Pelosi as the new POTUS, and would have looked like a grab for power (or at least Faux News would have made it look like one).
I gain no comfort from this explanation. You'll notice that I did not say "impeach the president". I said "investigate whether impeachment was doable". I will not rescind my pox! In fact, if what you propose is true, I say double the POX!
A lot of people don't get this:
Impeachment IS the investigation part of the process.
Cheers
Again, I didn't say "impeach". I said investigate what would it take to impeach. The republicans set of down the road of impeachment with Clinton without an effective strategy in place and look what it got them. Higher approval numbers for Clinton.
You need a plan before you act. Pelosi took this option away from day one as Speaker.
I really don't understand the point. What it would take? Do you mean what it would take to convict? I could care less if they were even successful. With impeachment, the investigation IS the ends. You want to break down that wall of privilege.
Cheers
Impeachment in the house is like empaneling a grand jury or a preliminary hearing to determine whether a criminal trial should proceed. In the case of impeachment, this criminal trial occurs in the senate. Before the prosecutor calls for a grand jury or preliminary hearing, surely she has gathered evidence, interviewed witnesses, and otherwise prepared an argument. This is what I mean by "investigation".
It's only prudent to fill the strategic reserve to prepare properly for war....
Bush just signed the law to suspend filling the SPR.
That's meaningless. The real question is whether he issues a signing statement indicating that he's going to ignore the law.
It might just be Bush being obstinate. Congress is trying to slow down filling the SPR and Bush is just pushing back.
How is signing the law "pushing back?"
The flows in question were prior to the law passing the Congress. Sometimes presidents sign laws they oppose to help their party.
I do not think the SPR is actually bought it is oil that is acquired as a part of the lease of government oil rights.
Even looking at the opportunity cost of taking oil and not cash, if that is considered an expense, as the SPR has been around for quite a while averaging the cost in the reserve per barrel it is favorable to the government as the average cost per barrel is far less than $130 U.S.
That being said if oil is going to continue on its upwards trend or if the price of oil ends up going lower and the government has storage capacity it still makes sense to fill the SPR at current costs. Even if oil prices drop the average cost per barrel in the SPR will still be far lower than $130.
The disadvantage of taking 100,000 bpd off of the market would be more than offset by the advantages of having a full SPR available if there is a major sudden supply disruption.
And that is what the SPR is for it is not a long term fix but is a fix and great benefit for a short term situation.
Hello TODers,
Since 'We, the people..' have stupidly decided to stop filling the SPR--> the way is now totally clear for bigbuck$$ private investors to hoard their future supply in this reservoir. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Basically: my earlier Hell's Angels' gas-stations writ large...
Price Elasticity of Demand
4 Week Averages 08 vs. 07
Products Supplied
Finished Motor Gasoline. . . 9,301. . 9,338. . -0.4%
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel. . . . 1,540 . . 1,631. . -5.6%
Distillate Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . 4,158 . . 4,131 . +0.7%
Residual Fuel Oil . . . . . . . . . . . 689 . . . 735. . -6.3%
Propane/Propylene. . . . . . . . . .932 . . 1,024. . -9.0%
Other Oils. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,721 . . 3,749 . -0.7%
Total Products Supplied . . . 20,340 . 20,607. -1.3%
Not Much Hope,
Alan
I'm worried that we should be getting into the rebuild of Propane for the next heating season, yet inventories are way down. Not good.
Time to look for a new heat source.
Propane was cheap when it was considered as a low demand refining by product, or a problem field gas to be vented. Not so now, and further, it must be trucked to your house.
Maybe Hank Hill will be looking for a new career?
:)
High propane prices hit right back on electricity demand. It's use as a heating fuel is primarily rural, where piped nat gas is unavailable. Substitutes are oil-trucked again and rising, coal-big up front costs even if don't give a flick about GW or clinkers-and trucked, or wood. I think most will go electricity for ease and cleanliness.
Much of our nation's grain drying is propane-no % or link-so we may be seeing more storage loss and perhaps nicks to the pocketbook as sale price is reduced with higher moisture contents.
I'll be ramping up my use of wood, and also trying to get some solar space and water heating in ASAP, as well as more insulation and sealing around the envelope.
Farmers need to get anaerobic biogas generators installed so they can produce their own methane. A few are already doing this, expensive/unavailable propane will greatly speed up the process.
Can you say a bit more about your wood use? I've been doing some stuff with a small boiler installer in New England - just finished a small private placement for the company, I'm helping them with infrastructure issues, etc, etc.
I'm really curious to hear what others are doing in this area ...
sct@strandedwind.org if you wouldn't mind sharing the details ...
I just have a small wood stove. (It is an Irish Waterford, with a separate duct to bring in combustion air from the outside. I love this feature, because it is much more efficient and I have zero worries about backdrafts & CO.) I haven't used it very often in the past, except during winter storms when the power was out or at risk of going out. I will be using it more starting this fall. I plan to start a fire on Friday night, and keep it going through Sunday night, so at least we'll be heating with wood during the weekends. It is a little more difficult to heat with wood during the weekdays, as no one is at home during the day and I'd just as soon not have a a fire in the stove that long untended anyway. We'll have to see about firing it up on weekday evenings - if it gets cold enough or propane gets expensive, perhaps I will.
As for supply, I live in western NC, trees everywhere, what more need I say?
Every time I see one of those propane vs. electricity ads I laugh and ask the TV how much longer will propane be alive given electricity can be renewably generated for millenia.
Yeah, it was good while it lasted. Like everything else, there will probably be a long tail, but it is time to start looking around for alternatives.
This area is utterly dependent on the propane trucks.
There are several propane co's and this isn't a huge population. My favorite one is named "Blue Flame" guess it was high school kids who named that one, hehe.
Also, this area has a great dependence on:
Water trucks
Food delivery trucks (yes even Swan's for the housebound whose kids are far away)
And the old-fashioned "Honey Wagon" no kidding.
Totally off topic-there is very little discussion of coal, which is interesting as pretty well everyone agrees that if you look ahead 20 years coal is going to be the most important energy source for the global economy. Oil will still be there at the top end, but coal is going to be the big player- it is almost ignored in the MSM right now.
I'm familiar with a manager at a local coal fueled power plant. The way he talks, there is "enough coal in the US for hundreds of years." Of course, those numbers are always given "at current consumption levels." The problem with that is, consumption will increase, naturally.
The biggest cost regarding the coal? The price to ship it via train all the way from Wyoming or similar state all the way down to Arkansas. The trains run on diesel, of course, so as the price of oil goes up, so will the price of diesel, and as such, the cost of shipping the coal to the plant.
Pushers of coal tend to be talking about how coal will last for a long period of time, but neglect to discuss the prices of mining it and transporting it. (Not to mention land destruction via strip-mining methods.)
Coal will play an important part, but oil costs will increase coal costs until all aspects of it's harvesting and transportation become electrified.
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
Your friend is somewhat behind in coal estimates.
For coal, see rutledge.caltech.edu.
Perhaps 90 years until exhaustion, around 2030 for peak coal in quantity. Peak coal in terms of energy may have already been passed.
I think Rutledge has it closer to 2022.
it will only take a shift in the understanding- as to how this world works- in the general US-sentiment and voila : no US-coal export, capitalism declared dead : those will be embedded as amendments in the Constitution(declaration). – Nicknamed “the final amendment” . Ohh and fresh till date unknown people will sit by the steering wheel.(friends of Hugo)
When this happen, go back and ask the coal-manager, again!
What about coal pipelines or electrifying the rail system? No need to use diesel if it becomes unavailable or too expensive.
Electrifying the rail network would be far to sensible.
I think the best we can hope for is more GenSet switchers, and perhaps a Rush to Ammonia Rebuilds so the locomotives can run on Anhydrous Ammonia (generated from water and air).
I used to periodically bend Alan Drake's ear about doing ammonia power for locomotives but his response is pretty firm - electrify it all. I suspect once diesel to ammonia conversions really get rolling we'll see some of that, but I have to bow to the master on this point.
Ammonia from water and air is all good, but what we found out earlier this year is that you'd better have a nonstop electricity source. The Haber Bosch process just isn't going to put up with a variable source of power for electrolyzers - you run at constant temperature/pressure or you kill catalysts and get metal fatigue problems.
Solid state ammonia synthesis is much more promising, but alas, not yet ready. I filed a grant application with the Iowa Power Fund for just short of a million a few weeks back and they'll be inspecting applications in a few days. I'll duplicate that effort shortly with the Massachusetts Technology Collaborative ... we really need something that makes good use of stranded wind/stranded sun/stranded hydro ... and right now if someone approached me with a hundred megawatts of variable power the best I could offer them is advice on how to get it grid interconnected.
Why not be boring and try gas liquefaction?
There's always a market for LN2, LO2, dry ice...
Stranded wind is perfect for that. And LN2 can be used to squeeze more juice out of rankin cycle engines. (And stirling engines)
We'd have to build an air separation plant for a Haber Bosch cycle ammonia facility - gotta get N2 from somewhere. The byproducts, O2, argon, and CO2? Throw aways in the volume we'd have them at the location(s) where they might be produced. I don't know much about the air gases market ... will have to learn a bit more if the time ever comes for a big HB plant.
Then you could radically downscale the HB component, and run the air separation plant both for your HB reactants and to buffer your energy source.
Combine with refrigerated warehousing for the local farmers may be? Okay, I'm starting to grasp at straws.
I doubt that the oxygen would be considered a waste product, even if there were small amounts of CO2 or argon, etc.
Pure O2 is one half of the ingredients for the combustion process using FF's. If you burn the FF's with O2, you get nothing but CO2, thus you have a product that can be immediately buried instead of releasing it to the air, which has been the usual approach for burning FF's so far. I suspect that a steam power plant with a burner using coal and O2 could become an intermediate alternative use for coal without adding CO2 to the atmosphere. That might work if the CO2 and other products, such as SO2, were injected in deep storage. Perhaps better yet, burn bulk biomass with O2 in a boiler and sequester the CO2, which would tend to remove carbon from the air. You could use the electricity from the steam cycle to buffer the varying output from the wind generators you mentioned or sell it to the grid...
E. Swanson
Coal is the real "Inconvenient truth".
Everyone who is serious into energy, knows it will be the energy source of choice for the next decades. But nobody talks about it, because they have to somehow reconcile it with the fact that it is the dirtiest and most GHG emitting of the fuels we use today. Whenever they talk about it, it is with such manipulative twists like "clean coal" (which sounds like "humanitarian homicide" to me), or in conjunction with the daydreaming for CCS. The fact that nobody has demonstrated those in any meaningful way is not a problem of course. That's it - out of sight out of mind. The human monkey thinks he's in control and does his best to fool himself into it.
There is a new report out in sciencedaily:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080519092205.htm
which claims to have a "low cost" filter to remove 90% of the CO2. Details are pretty sketchy. If this pans out, perhaps carbon capture will be feasible enough to let this happen. Of course shipping huge volumes (similar to or greater than oil) of liquid CO2 to underground disposal won't be a picnic either.
If you have a source of clean CO2 it's damned silly to bury it - you need a little electricity, some patented technology, and *presto* - you get usable stuff. The most boring thing you can make with it is ethanol ... and there are many other low molecular weight goodies that currently come from fossil fuels which are available with the right catalysts and a flick of the wrist.
Peak oil means innovation in industrial chemical production and CO2 is a valuable feedstock.
Hey! What a great idea: Just a little electricity, some hydrogen, some patented techno-gimmickry, maybe a catalyst or two... and you can turn CO2 into... Methane! Then you can burn the CH4 & turn a turbine to make MORE electricity, use it to turn the waste CO2 into MORE CH4. Energy problem SOLVED !!!
"Let there be light, and there was light."
It's such an excellent idea that there are several patent applications now on file and we're fund raising to commercialize it. You've clearly read at least one clever post on the second law of thermodynamics ... would that the physically certain diminishing returns of such schemes apply to certain forms of internet foolishness as well as energy problems. *sigh*
Stranded renewable resources are by definition unavailable to consumers. If such a power source exists and there is a way to convert that output into something usable then we've succeeded, simplistically speaking, in time shifting the generation capacity and the output is very likely transportable.
The most promising example of this in action is the production of ammonia from a stranded resource, a bit of water, and air. The three ingredients exist in large quantities in the Arctic basin ... would be nice if instead of oil rigs everywhere we saw wind driven platforms producing a clean liquid fuel, eh?
If you want to evaluate the technology a bit better than you can from a press release, the paper is here
Check out Orin Hatch on Bloomberg. To paraphrase him, it's the Dem.s fault we import so much oil. They've been hi-jacked by the environmentalists who prevent us from drilling our own oil (anwr, offshore, our own oil shale, I presume). The implication, I take it, is that if we could only exploit these areas, we wouldn't be so dependant on oil imports.
He pulled an Al Gore and stated HE helped develope hybrid tech., I kid you not.
Even if the Hatchster was correct, the prices we pay at the pump would be no different than they are now, for all the reasons this site so thoroughly has researched. The s.o.b. is playing pol. with a very complicated predicament, but to folks, who let's say, haven't even read a book all their lives he's inciting them to light their torches, pick up their pitchforks, and go after the Dem.s. The Repubs and the neo-con artists are in panic mode I think. Out come the lies and dirty tricks.
Bush invades Iran, starts ww3, declares marshall law.
Jeff
"Bush invades Iran, starts ww3, declares marshall law."
Unfortunately, he missed his opportunity to do this without people knowing why he is doing it. Every day that Peak Oil gets out in the MSM makes it harder for him to invade Iran and give some other reason for it.
Oh, I don't think the Republicans, welded at the hip to the oil industry, are going to be able to squirm away :-) ANWR is a puddle ... the best oil field we have left is some sort of policy that'll get SUVs melted down and turned into train tracks. I think we figured the typical SUV would yield about 88' of heavy rail ...
And the U.S. can't start a war with Iran without directly irritating Russia and China. The Iranians already have nuclear capable cruise missiles that were "liberated" from the Ukraine right after the fall of the Soviet Union. The disposition of the warheads was never made clear ... and if the U.S. is going to use nukes there would Russia slip them the gear?
Crazy, dangerous times, and having an incompetent, petulant child like Bush in the White House? Yikes!
Proof please or link? I have never heard that and even if it was true, I would imagine Isreal would have taken action against Iran long ago. I suspect this is a highly unconfirmed rumor.
Heh. It's an old rumour that was started by Mossad in 1991 as a means of persuading the US to do a repeat performance of Desert Storm on Iran.
In my tribe we have this thing called Google, TAD, and you may wish to avail yourself of it. I've posted this information with references several times, but if you go and check it out then we'll have two sets of eyes on it.
I see some of the rumor stories out there, but again all rumors no proof. I would say Londaniums explanation above makes the most sense.
The Mossad rumours are an old story. Israel has been trying to persuade the US to attack Iran since the end of the Gulf war; no joy thus far, and it looks like that after 71/2 years of the Bush administration - which represented their best concrete chance of getting the US to do this - there's not going to be much in the way of champagne flowing in Tel Aviv for a job well done.
There are rumours that Iran acquired some X-55 cruise missiles from the Ukraine at some point between 1995 and 2001, but the reporting on this is very iffy.
It's worth noting that nuclear-capable is not the same thing as actually having a nuclear warhead attached.