DrumBeat: May 21, 2008
Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 21, 2008 - 9:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil Monitor (IEA) to Slash Estimate Of World's Supply of Crude (parts behind paywall)
The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of a large study of the condition of world's top oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude-oil supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.
Oil prices pass $134 after government report of a drop in crude and gasoline inventories
NEW YORK (AP) -- Runaway oil prices blew past $130 a barrel for the first time Wednesday and kept going, while gasoline prices persisted in their own relentless climb, rising above $3.80 a gallon. Supply worries, rising demand and a slumping dollar are conspiring to make filling up the car -- and paying for just about everything else -- a growing burden for Americans.
With gas and oil prices setting new records on a daily basis, many analysts are beginning to wonder whether anything can stop prices from rising. There are technical signals in the futures market, including price differences between near-term and longer-term contracts, that crude may soon fall. But with demand for oil growing in the developing world, and little end in sight to supply problems in producing countries such as Nigeria, few analysts are willing to call an end to crude's rally.
Crude's Price Surge Attracts Oil-Field Thieves
Tankers, Pipelines Grow as Targets; Few Crimes Solved
A sharp rise in oil-field thefts is driving oil companies and law enforcement to beef up security at wells that are being targeted more frequently as a source of easy money. Thieves are tapping into pipelines, paying off truck drivers and sometimes simply driving up to wells in tanker trucks and pumping the oil out of storage containers.
OPEC oil supply rising in May-Petrologistics
LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - OPEC oil supply in May is expected to rise by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), led by higher output from members including Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, an industry consultant said on Wednesday.
The increase comes during a month in which oil has soared to record highs and indicates OPEC is again pumping more than its supply limit after a strike in Nigeria lowered output and Saudi Arabia opted to pump more.
All 13 OPEC members are expected to pump 32.4 million bpd this month compared with a revised 31.7 million bpd in April, Conrad Gerber of tanker tracker Petrologistics, told Reuters.
Oilpatch gears up for a comeback
Buoyed by surging natural gas and record oil prices, the western Canadian oilpatch is gearing up for a recovery in the second half of 2008.
Crude In The Stratosphere; Wall Street Regroups
With oil prices at record levels investors pulled out of U.S. stocks on Tuesday, as the outlook for the U.S. consumer seemed to grow bleaker by the hour. Forecasts of $150 oil, another uptick in a key inflation measure, and concerns the credit crunch's next wave could hit consumer lending all lent credence to a dour outlook.
'Peak oil' sentiment pumping up long-term futures
"You have had a lot of press, whether from OPEC or other market watchers, calling for significantly higher prices than what we're seeing today," said Eric Wittenauer, an energy analyst at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. "Those can be proof positive for the higher end of the curve."
As oil soars, Japan's plan makes sense
Japan also shifted away from oil to natural gas, which is available from less distant and more reliable suppliers such as Brunei and Indonesia. Natural gas provides about 15 per cent of Japan's energy needs, up from 2.7 per cent in 1975. Oil provides about 46 per cent, down from 71 per cent. Coal accounts for about 22 per cent, up from 18 per cent, and other sources provide the remainder.
American Cuts US Flights; Airline Stocks Plummet
American Airlines said it plans to cut domestic capacity by 11 percent to 12 percent this year as fuel prices reach record highs and the weak U.S. economy casts a shadow over the summer travel season.
US calls on China to join global energy group, help stabilize oil markets
A U.S. official urged China on Tuesday to join the International Energy Agency — a group of major oil consumers that includes the United States and European governments — and aid its efforts to keep petroleum markets stable in times of crisis.
OPEC secretary-general says world oil market well supplied
OPEC's secretary-general says the world oil market is well supplied despite prices that have risen above US$129 a barrel.
An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude
An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now.
There were warnings about the Housing Bubble on the web for years before the market tanked. Now we are warning you about the approaching global maximum of oil volumetric flow rates, a concept which others call "peak oil." Thank God for the internet. In the meantime, merrily we roll along, living in the phony economy Big Brother has invented for us.



yay first !
sorry.
I notice today that Oman 1M has leapt 16% to 143 ... why would this particular blend do this ? Is it the quality as assessed on the fly that determines the price differential ?
What’s happening with Oman Crude?
I checked Upstream Crude oil spot prices this morning and found Oman crude up $23.76 to $143.85. I thought “surely that is a misprint” so I checked it an hour later. It had dropped sixteen cents to $143.69.
Oman crude usually trades about par with Dubai crude, or about five to ten dollars below WTI. It is a slightly heavier grade than WTI. Dubai crude is trading in its normal range so why the sudden jump in Oman crude? This is weird.
Ron Patterson
My oil trader friend couldn't find any confirmation for the Oman price, but it is still up there on Upstream. He did say that India is very aggressively buying crude and there are recurring rumors than India is planning to set up a SPR. We may be seeing governments beginning to try to buy any and all crude that they can get their hands on.
Thanks for this. I put up the same question on peakoil.com houers ago and this is the first resonable answer, but why are they then in such a rush to buy that they can not order some other type of crude? I can not accept that Oman 1M should be so extremely specific that it from one day to the other is worth $15 more than all other types of crude? Something is strange here or I am extremly ignorant or maybe both...
I'm not sure I fully understand this, but it looks like Oman has its own way of selling its oil.
quote:
Official crude oil prices in Oman are set by the Ministry of Oil and Gas (MOG), through a unit directly controlled by the minister, Dr. Mohammed Al Romhi. Since the beginning of 1985, a panel of experts has been setting crude prices on a monthly basis, in accordance with a spot market related formula adjusted retroactively to spot transactions during the previous month.
Unlike its OPEC neighbours, the MOG allows Oman to trade on the spot market. The crude is a marker, together with Dubai, for east of Suez exports from Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others. This marker is called Dubai/Oman price average. The MOG is yet to become an active participant in the spot market and turn its main export crude into an official marker.
link:
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-712243/OMAN-Omani-Oil-Pricing.ht...
So doesn't this mean Oman has moved their spot price above the market when in the past it has been below the market? Are they betting/saying/predicting that prices will continue to move up?
Maybe they now realize the true value of their oil. Maybe they read TOD!
I think the article on top, and more regular MSM coverage, is a rewarding result of TOD staff efforts to get the message across. All the experts' input makes it quite credible.
Based on research he did during Super Bowl weekend, Matt Simmons believes that "all the great oil fields of the Middle East" are set up to go into a "North Sea tailspin soon". In the interview, Simmons said this could begin in the next few months. The interview was conducted on February 24.
This may not be what is currently driving up prices, but it's something to keep in mind.
The Fading Twilight of Oil Part 1
The Fading Twilight of Oil Part 2
I just noticed that part 2 is available to subscribers only. This must have recently changed, because I was able to download it for free a couple months ago.
If Simmons is right about the ME fields going into a tailspin, then we are headed for big time *PANIC*. Nobody's ready for a fast collapse in oil production.
Well maybe not ready but I'd at least not be surprised.
Nobody's ready for a slow collapse either.
Ummm...I would like to say this to the Peak Oil Fairy out there that is making the WTI price (and others) skyrocket right now...OK, we all get it...it's real.
Please..can you just take a break from these daily crude and gasoline price records...let us catch our breath.
Man alive and holy Shiite...Bloomberg is showing 134.810 right now for WTI...what the heck will the rest of this week bring before the driving insanity of USA Memorial Day weekend and the kickoff to summer?
what the heck will the rest of this week bring before the driving insanity of USA Memorial Day weekend and the kickoff to summer?
A rising Greek Chorus accusing oil firms of price gouging?
(I'm SO looking forward to more people blaming
price gouging/speculatorsworking Capitalists making a profit)I think I definitely picked the right time to start walking to work.
Actually, 99% of the world is not ready for anything but an exponential increase into infinity.
WT, did you or anyone else notice the LARGE splash you made in today's UrbanSurvival?
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Export Land Model is starting to get traction.
Also, John Mauldin stole your ELM title and didn't even mention you.
A few people should email him and explain where the term came from.
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10311.htm
John Maudlin piece leads on to an article by David Galland which fully credits wt and talks extensively about his work.
Mine sez...
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices
By David Galland,
Managing Director
Casey Research - Casey Energy Speculator
Jeffrey Brown is someone you should know. That's because he can help you understand today's high energy prices and that, as an investor, can make you a lot of money.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/arch......
Sorry, My mistake.
westexas the investment consultant? ELM can earn you money. ELP can provide for living.
To clarify slightly, I agreed to do an interview with Casey Research, which they put into their investment newsletter.
WT...you're a hot commodity...I wonder if your future contracts are in contango?
I had a long chat with George Ure yesterday. Like a lot of people, he was looking for an explanation for the recent rapid increase in oil prices. I think that we are looking at something like the following annual trend in total net oil exports: -2%, -4%, -6%, -8%, -10%. . .
As soon as we get a period of stability, where price equalizes supply & demand, we will get a sharper net export decline rate, requiring an accelerating price increase in order to balance supply & demand--especially as forced energy conservation moves up the food chain.
Wherever we are headed and whatever the consequences, IMO this is what is driving the price of oil up.
Doesn't Oman have access to the Indian Ocean outside the Strait of Hormuz? Should the Strait be closed in the event of some "interesting times", wouldn't Oman still be able to deliver oil to customers? Their LNG plant is on the Indian Ocean too, as I recall.
E. Swanson
Oman's facilities are around the corner from the Straight of Hormuz, but still within easy range of a Silkworm or Sunburn missile - their stuff is about as far down the coast from the narrows as Dubai is going the other direction into the Gulf itself. I guess in theory this would be easier to patrol as there would be less small boat traffic, unlike the Gulf itself.
I get the feeling the experts on here seem to think there is a mistake on the Oman 1M oil price.
If it is not a mistake, is that the first bit of S**t hitting the fan?
This is a misprint (error of some sort), nuff speculations. No oil-grade takes off like this whatsoever.. If it was real though, it's just a way to say "we will not sell you our oil"
Oman is just nearby Dubai, which in turn has always been rated a better oil-grade to that from Oman ..... except from this morning that is. Cheer up!
I just noticed that Dubai has not opened today, they are still posting yesterday's price. So don't cheer up just yet. It is late afternoon in Dubai, that price should have been posted by now.
Strange no news media has picked this up? It is an extreme anomaly. :-/
That's true, maybe it's just pure coincidence that MSN which is reasonably main stream media had this article for it's readers to ponder.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveonaCar/WhatIfGasC...
What if gas cost $10 a gallon?
By Shirley Skeel
Editor's note: This is one in an occasional series of financial what-ifs.
Yeah, right!
On the Oman price bump could this be an example of hoarding? Seems like the price is far enough above SPOT to discourage purchase.
Hmmm.... $140/bbl appears to have been breached. Time for another poll? ;o)
-best,
Wolf
PS Okay, okay, it's not WTI.
Soon enough graywulffe, soon enough I fear... :|
WTI just passed $134. At this rate $143.69 will seem a bargain soon.
Oil for 2016 Delivery Nears $140 on Supply Concern
Enuff said!
Oil hit $130 today
It has now slipped back to just over $129
CNN, and in particular their financial analyst, Todd Benjamin seem peak oil aware, or at any rate aware that supplies are unlikely to increase and that prices will remain high.
He posts blogs on oil at CNN - here is a link to the latest one is anyone wishes to contribute:
http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/21/whos-to-blame-for-high-oil-pric...
Part of a post I did to a previous oil-related blog of his got read out today - fame at last!
In my post I also linked to west texas's article on oil, so perhaps he has read that too.
All next week they are running a series on oil entitled 'Tapping out?'
Chuck Marvin of 'The Street' on CNN just now said that it is all speculation!
That's alright then! For a moment I thought we had a problem!
He did acknowledge that higher demand from China and India made it difficult to see what the price should be, but said that it was obscured by speculation.
EU plan could lead to power blackouts, UK generators claim
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eu-plan-could-lead-to-po...
this comes on top of many coal and nuclear plants coming to the end of their lives in the next few years - there appears to be no situation so bad that regulation can't make it worse.
More on South Africa's electricity situation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7339213.stm
Northern Rock billions at risk in a downturn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/21/cnrock...
For those not familiar with it, this is a large mortgage company which had it's loans underwritten by the Government.
The UK government itself now predicts a 10% fall in house prices, and some analysts expect a 30% fall.
Good news all over for the UK economy
The UK is the US first line of defense.
Fight the good fight!
;}
"Latest excuse for the credit snafu: it's the computer's fault.
Moody's is conducting a review to see how come several CPDOs (constant proportion debt obligations), some of the most highly engineered products in the alphabet soup of finance, were given AAA ratings when they should have been as much as four notches lower.
I note that CPDOs are some of the most virulent forms of credit derivatives ever devised. In short, they force investors to keep raising their ante in the form of higher leverage as losses mount. It's equivalent to doubling down every time you lose a round at the roulette table. Most appropriate rating for CPDOs? "F", as in: "fools and their money are soon parted"."
http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/
Which Ratings Model is Broken?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/which-ratings-model-is-broken...
Moody's is conducting a review-classic.
May be that huge Indian Reliance refinery is coming onstream.