DrumBeat: December 15, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 12/15/06 at 11:28 AM EDT]

Algeria oil minister pins any output hiccup on ballooning costs

ABUJA, Nigeria -- Algeria's Oil Minister Chakib Khelil Thursday pinned any potential hiccup in meeting the country's oil output goals on surging project costs, though he refused to validate comments by an executive from the state-run oil company that production targets had been cut by as much as a quarter.

On the sidelines of an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting here in the Nigerian capital, Khelil said rocketing costs were spurring delays or even cancellations of hydrocarbon projects.

"An LNG (liquefied natural gas) project that cost $1 billion a few years would cost no less than $3.5 billion today and it's even worse for GTL (gas-to-liquids developments)" he said.

Energy from the motion of the ocean

The buoys get deployed a mile or so offshore, either individually or linked together in a field of a dozen or more covering 30 acres of the ocean's surface. They are also an environmentalist's dream - barely visible from the beach, drawing on an abundant, renewable energy resource, with little or no impact upon marine life and emitting no gases that contribute to global warming.


Maine Call Center Could Be Turned Into Research Institute

An ambitious project could be getting started in Rockland. The Free Press newspaper reports that investment banker Matthew Simmons is planning to buy the former MBNA call center building on the Rockland waterfront and turn it into a new international water energy research center.

..."What I've started is getting interested parties to get interested, hopefully, in Rockland, to create an institute in Rockland, an institute of water, and allowing 200 to 300 of the best scientists in the world, backed by maybe 20 universities, and 20 corporations and 20 think tanks, come here as a water fellow, and under one roof get all these people doing wave energy and tidal energy and desalination and so forth," said Simmons.


Weekly Offshore Rig Review: Floating Rigs Locked In, Too

Last week, we started a year-end analysis of the future prospects and rig contracting trends by looking at the jackup fleet's contract coverage for the next three years. This week, we will continue by examining the current level of future contracted time for the competitive drillship and semisubmersible fleet and then comparing those numbers across the leading offshore drilling contractors' fleets, as we did previously for jackups.


Canadian Oil Sands Could Fill Rising U.S. Demand for Energy

Between growing unrest in the Middle East and OPEC's determination to cut production rather than increase it, Canada's oil sands are becoming a more viable resource to the United States. Recently two energy companies announced strategic developments that could in the coming years help reduce America's dependence on OPEC.


Indonesia to Drill 200 Oil, Gas Wells by 2009, Regulator Says

Indonesia, the second-smallest member of OPEC, plans to drill 200 exploration wells by 2009 to find new oil and gas areas and replace aging fields, a government official said.


Truckers sue oil companies over `hot fuel'

Truck driver owner-operators file consumer fraud lawsuit against oil companies, claiming 'hot fuel' provides less energy.


(One part of) A Unified Climate/Energy Agenda

I asked him why green groups haven't been more effective on climate and energy issues. He said it's simple: when the business lobby goes after an issue, it speaks with a single voice. The chamber of commerce, the think tanks, and all the constituent industry groups agree on what they want. Then they lay it out to lawmakers.


80 Members of Congress Pen Letter to President Bush to Fund Renewable Energy

Eighty Members of the U.S. House of Representatives took time this week to send a letter to President Bush seeking substantially higher funding levels for renewable energy and energy efficiency in the White House's Fiscal Year 2008 (FY'08) budget request for the U.S. Department of Energy.


George Monbiot on The Current Monbiot talks about "ethical travel." Streaming audio.


The Great Green Leap Forward: Energy-Hungry China and India Leapfrog to the Front of the Global Green Building Movement


The Pernicious Price of Petroleum

Our love of driving is killing us. While we think of car crashes as causing fatalities, the production and transportation of fuel also significantly undermines public health.

In his book Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction, Terry Tamminen outlines the direct and indirect impact that petroleum consumption has on millions of Americans every year.


France agrees to cooperate with Gulf states to develop nuclear energy

France agreed in principle to work with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on the peaceful development of nuclear energy, said a spokesman for the French Foreign Ministry on Thursday.

The statement came after the six member states of the GCC -- Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman -- decided to launch a plan on the peaceful use of nuclear energy.


Germany Sees Big Potential in Green Biomass Fuel

HAMBURG - Large-scale production in Germany of green fuels using new generation biomass-to-liquid (BTL) technology is feasible and may fill around 20 percent of national fuel needs, the Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday.


Sakhalin gas: Shell loses, whales win

MOSCOW- There are three opponents of Russia's strategy to become a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter - the western gray whale, the US government and Gazprom.


Belarus criticizes Russian hike of oil export duties

MINSK, Belarus: Belarus' Foreign Ministry on Thursday slammed Russia's decision to hike customs duties on oil exports to Belarus, saying it violated bilateral agreements.


Iraqi oil law stalled by dispute over division of powers


Oceans may rise over 4 1/2 feet by 2100

OSLO (Reuters) - The world's oceans may rise up to 140 cms (4 ft 7 in) by 2100 due to global warming, a faster than expected increase that could threaten low-lying coasts from Florida to Bangladesh, a researcher said on Thursday.


Saudi Aramco revealed as biggest group

The world's biggest company is controlled by Saudi Arabia and is not listed on a stock exchange, according to new research by the Financial Times and the management consultancy McKinsey.


African oil ministers call for establishment of African oil fund: fund is "urgently needed to tackle the consequences of oil price hikes on the African economies."


Russia, Germany and European energy policy

The "special relationship" between Russia and Germany over energy supplies is both a challenge to European Union integration and an invitation to get serious about it.


Analyst: Russia to 'Hit' Chevron with CPC Bill

Russia is preparing a bill to define the role of private investors in gas and oil pipelines in Russia aimed at blocking Chevron Corp's Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil pipeline, which is to transport oil from Kazakhstan via Russian territory, according to Russian press reports.


3 hostages taken from Shell oil complex

YENAGOA, Nigeria - Armed men who seized control of a Royal Dutch Shell PLC oil complex overnight fled Friday, taking three Nigerian hostages, shooting a man and forcing the oil giant to halt production at the site.


5 oil and gas companies to pay royalties

WASHINGTON - Five oil and gas companies, including Shell, ConocoPhillips and BP, have agreed to pay royalties on future production under flawed drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico, the government said Thursday.


John Michael Greer: Nawida 2150

This is my third and (for now) last exploration of a deindustrial future using the tools of narrative fiction. Fifty more years have passed since "Solstice 2100." Massive climate change, including the melting of the Antarctic ice cap, and the final stages of catabolic collapse have transformed the setting almost beyond recognition. In the aftermath of these changes, new cultural forms are evolving to replace the last fragments of industrial civilization.


One Million Pixels for Social and Environmental Harmony

Our timing is not accidental. We are operating at a pivotal moment in terms of the future of our countries and of our planet. In the era of peak oil, of global warming, of the exponentially worsening situations created by the illegal invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and of spectacular natural disasters such as the Asian tsunami and Hurricane Katrina, it is time for a profound paradigm shift in the way that we relate to one another and to our planet.


Fog halts Houston Ship Channel traffic

HOUSTON - Ships were halted from moving along the 53-mile (85.3 kilometer) Houston Ship Channel to the busiest U.S. petrochemical port on Thursday due to dense fog, said the U.S. Coast Guard.

...Tankers running through the channel supply crude oil to refineries in Houston and Texas City, which account for 11.8 percent of U.S. refining capacity.


U.S. Energy Sec Bodman disappointed by OPEC cut

"I am disappointed if in fact they end up cutting supply. I am gratified that they are putting it off here for another month or six weeks. Hopefully (it will) give them more time to evaluate," Bodman told reporters ahead of an U.S.-Asia energy summit.


Insurance by the Mile: A simple way to slow global warming.


Uzbekistan pushes up gas prices

Uzbekistan has doubled the price of natural gas its sells to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, officials have said.

The former Soviet republic is to charge $100 (£51) per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, up from $55.


Chic energy goes green, keeps green in wallet: Geothermal to wind to solar, alternative sources gain glamour, efficiency

Here's an interesting article about energy efficient refrigeration using the magnetocaloric effect.

Bokken

One material works nicely: the element gadolinium (Gd). It's a ...
I believe I have a large deposit of that in my back yard
</sarcasm>

Other links:
(Ames Lab)
(Wikipedia)

You better sell it before they get the cheaper cobalt and manganese alloy working then....
A message for SAT

Hello SAT - after an absence lasting exactly 30 days I see you're back with a couple of cautious posts.

So lets cut straight to the quick.  What will the oil price be 1 year from now?

Every year at this time I have a bet with a friend about the oil price:

Last year I bet on $52.35
He bet on $60 - so it looks like I lost.

Does this make me an optimist or a pessimist?  I'm sure there may be a few folks round here who'd be interested to know your thoughts.

CW

PS - if anyone else wants to give opinions then please fire away!

I'll venture that the Dec 07 contract will be $69 but I would not be surprised if it was $85
I have a standing bet on another board.  We bet a barrel of oil that the price would be either over or under $70 on Aug. 30, 2008.  I bet over, he bet under.  Loser sends the winner the WTI Cushing Spot price of a barrel.  I'm still comfortable with that bet.

In fact I think it will be back to $70 before the end of 2007.  I further think it will do that without any significant fear premium.  I'd tack on at least $10 if a FUD event breaks through the public consciousness.  That's not based on anything but my gut feel, though.  A year ago I was willing to predict $100 by then, so either I'm getting more realistic or less pessimistic as time goes by.

Can you believe the British?  I get kidnapped.  My family refuses to pay the ransom, "on principle," whatever that means.  I finally manage to escape -- thank you MacGyver -- and as soon as I get home this guy demands an oil price prediction.  I'm still wearing my hostage clothes.  I was about to climb into the hot tub.  Jeeze.  

Euan, oil prices cannot be predicted.  You are gambling.  I strongly recommend that you seek help, or at least find ways to profit from unpredictable price swings, whether they turn out to be up or down.  

All right, all right, all right.  If that's what it takes to get you to call off your dogs.  You want a prediction?  I'm going to come clean with you, Euan, my mom just brought down a fresh set of charts from the attick a few minutes ago (she's like you, no, "welcome back," no hug, just right down to business).  These charts don't go all the way out to Nov. 15th, 2007, so i'll have to extrapolate this line (as I'm sure you all know, extrapolation can be -- how should I put this? -- extremely inaccurate).  Hang on a second.  Where's my ruler?  OK.  Wait a minute, Nov. 15th is off the edge of this paper, so I'll have to put another sheet over here and then draw a line down to estimate...$82.

I think a strengthening dollar over the course of the next three or four months, along with continued pre-recession commodity declines, will keep oil in the $50-$70 range in the short term (that's funny, isn't it, $50-$70 range?) and then prices will start to move back up once the recession is underway.  Does that make sense?  I feel like i'm still a little bit out of it.  My God, what has been going on with Brittney Spears?

I recommend a long straddle strategy of investing in oil by purchasing both a call and put each with the same exercise price and date.  This strategy will capture a gain in rapid price movement either up or down.  If the experation date is passed without any movement up or down, the loss for the investor is the purchase price of the options.
I'm curious. Why do you suppose the dollar will be strenghtening?
Hurin,

The dollar tends to strengthen prior to a recession.  Technical factors and trader's commitments are both pointing to a stronger dollar.  The media is falling all over itself talking about a dollar collapse.  Finally, while the dollar has recently declined a bit based on growing recognition of a U.S. slowdown, other currencies (for example, the Euro)have yet to see this effect.  As soon as people realize that other countries economies will also slow as a result of the U.S. slowing, this situation will correct.  

The U.S. dollar index recently dipped below 82.50.  Today it closed at 84.06.  I think it will approach 90 in the coming half-year or so.

 

Euan, oil prices cannot be predicted.

find ways to profit from unpredictable price swings, whether they turn out to be up or down.

SAT - I'm glad you escaped.  $82 / 15 Nov 2007 - its in my diary.  And two of the most sensible quotes I have for this month if not for this year.

Monday morning I phone my lawyer to sell the house and sink the lot into Brent Britney futures (note - no other readers of this site should even consider this without first consulting a fully qualified financial advisor who wants to rob you of your money).

I think a strengthening dollar over the course of the next three or four months, along with continued pre-recession commodity declines, will keep oil in the $50-$70 range in the short term (that's funny, isn't it, $50-$70 range?) and then prices will start to move back up once the recession is underway.  Does that make sense?

Well yes - I guess the $ is down now and so may go back up again. And then no - why will oil prices rise when the recession gets underway?  More full explanation required if you have the time please.

Darndest thing - I was writing my post the same time that you posted.  So I have 2007 on a $72 average for Brent - was hoping that Khebab might have called by to put some flesh on the volatility aspect.

Markets are anticipatory.  Historically, commodities have fallen in anticipation of recessions and risen in anticipation of the end of recessions.  In other words, commodities have risen during recessions.  If this is a typical recession, I don't see why things should be any different this time.

Note: I have often commented about my fascination with Stoneleigh's theories over at TOD Canada.  This doesn't necessarily mean that I agree with him.  He lays out a very convincing case, though, and could very well be right at some point.  In the mean time, I continue to act based on the assumption that the coming recession will be more or less typical.

Yeh, Stoneleigh is very gloomy and I have tended to align myself with his gloooomy outlook.  So I note that you are much more "optimistic" in referring to the comming recession as typical and not the recession to end all recessions.  I have also noted that Stuart since his return is also less glooomy than most.  One comment of Stuart's I picked up on was substitution of oil by other sources in India - I'm not sure how much flesh there is on that claim. In this regard, I wonder if one of the more important stories on Drumbeat today is not the French move to aid Gulf States develop nuclear power.  I wonder how much oil and gas they burn in power generation?

I have no feel for how realistic a proposition this is. Could move on to Iran.. but probably best leave it there.

Some thoughts - 2003, 2004 and 2005, demand ran ahead of the long term trend.  2006 demand has tracked sideways and my suspicion is that 2007 will be similar, with demand running at around 85 mmbpd (all liquids) on average for 2007 - checked by continuing high price.  On this basis I'd estimate an average price for Brent (which is getting pretty scarce now) of $72 / bbl for 2007.

How to handle the volatility and above ground factors is a major problem.  Property implosion in US and UK may send markets into a tail spin.  Alternatively, loss of 3 to 5 mmbpd production from the ME owing to spread of conflict could send oil over $100 over night.

A message for SAT

Hello SAT - after an absence lasting exactly 30 days I see you're back with a couple of cautious posts.

You do realise that SAT, Oil CEO and Hugo Chavez are all the same person, don't you?

Bob - this notion of multiple cyber personalities is one that I find fascinating. As I spend most of my time doing primary research for TOD I find I don't have that much time to spend cross referencing posting habits.  I may agree with 67% of what you say - but never had much time for Hugo myself.

At the end of the day, the things that matter to me most here are original research, analysis and insight.

Perhaps WT and Hothgar are the same person. Wouldn't that be a kick?

"A schizophrenic, goes into a blog,..."

Oil CEO?  I wish.

On the other hand, if anyone's crazy enough to pull something like that off, it's him.

Unfortunately, for existential reasons, I can't join you in supporting this particular conspiracy theory.

 

A couple of stories from today's McPaper:

Americans will devote half their lives to forms of media next year

Americans love their media -- so much that next year they'll spend nearly half their lives watching TV, going online, listening to the radio (or music) and reading. That's what the U.S. Census Bureau is predicting in its "Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007," out Friday.


Luxuries of past become necessities

Stuff.

Do you really need it or just want it?

New research suggests we want lots of it and think we really need it.

The number of consumer products Americans say are necessities has multiplied in the past decade, suggesting that items such as microwaves or air conditioning -- once considered luxuries -- are things we can't live without anymore, according to a Pew Research Center survey released Thursday.

"The more of these goods you have and the more available they are, the more you feel you need," says Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Research Center.

Hedonism and the Mindless Herd - short story of a short-lived civilization.  Chapter one - the catatonic view/shopper...
The best example of this is the store that caught on fire about a week ago and the firefighters had to prevent people from entering the store to shop because despite the smoke, they had Stuff® to buy and nothing as silly as a fire was going to stand in their way.  If it turned out the store had a PlayStation 3, I bet even the firefighters couldn't have kept the customers out.
A small share of those media figures include all of us reading THE OIL DRUM.
Does anyone know the list of 14 items used int he "Luxuries" article?  I would love to see the list and tally of responses.
Item: 2006, 1996

Car:91, 93

Clothes washer:90, 86

Clothes dryer:83, 62

Home A/C:70, 51

Microwave:68, 32

TV set:64, 59

Car A/C:59, 41

Home computer:51, 26

Cellphone:49, (not asked in '96)

Dishwasher:35, 13

Cable or satellite TV:33, 17

High-speed Internet:29, (not asked in '96)

iPod:3, (not asked in '96)

From the Atlanta Constitution-Journal:

STUFF WE NEED

Percent of Pew survey respondents who rated item as a necessity. First figure is for 2006, second is for suveys in 1996.

Car: 91, 93

Clothes washer: 90, 86

Clothes dryer: 83, 62

Home A/C: 70, 51

Microwave: 68, 32

TV set: 64, 59

Car A/C: 59, 41

Home computer: 51, 26

Cellphone: 49, (not asked in '96)

Dishwasher: 35, 13

Cable or satellite TV: 33, 17

High-speed Internet: 29, (not asked in '96)

iPod: 3, (not asked in '96)

I suppose it's good news that fewer people see a car as a necessity.

Come on! this is absolute nonsense.. You don't need any of this shit. What you need are the 5 corners of life:

  1. Water
  2. Food
  3. Fire
  4. Shelter
  5. Medication

All the other "shit" only is a burdon on your life.

The US people have to wake up, a microwave oven is nothing!

You don't own stuff; the stuff owns you.

Roger From The Netherlands

a microwave oven is nothing!

Depends...
I used to burn logs on the floor of the kitchen to cook and found the microwave to have a lower TCO (Total Cost Of Ownership) as well as using less energy and having less carbon emissions.
And I am not even in the US, silly me!

(THIS is why I am a "doomer"...)

Come on Roger your from the Nederland: a bicycle with two locks!
Some comments from the talking heads on CNBC

"OPEC is really showing discipline this time (in cutting production)"

"Yes, and it looks like they are showing more discipline in cutting production as time goes forward"

To which I would reply--just like the tremendous discipline that Texas has shown or the past 33 years, as we have "voluntarily" cut production by close to 75%.

Jeffrey, if you keep watching those morons you will rot your brain! If you'd just change the Export Land Model name to the Jon Benet Ramsey strategy you'd get a lot of publicity, but as things stand now is just a Valium for the truth of our energy situation.
Mass delusions continue as long as the masses share the same false assumptions.

And the celebrity-wanna-bees that masquerade as reporters will be the very last to question the herd's assumptions.    

celebrity-wanna-bees that masquerade as reporters.

Agreed!!!

... just like the tremendous discipline that Texas has shown or the past 33 years, as we have "voluntarily" cut production by close to 75%.

That is really not a fair comparison. OPEC countries are not subject to USA anti-trust laws. They "can" openly collude to fix prices. It may very well be true that they are "voluntarily" cutting production or that they are pretending to do so when in fact it is Mother Nature who is strangulating their oil sucking straws ... we can't be sure.

More intrestingly, I want to know where is that great stampeding sound from the market cavalry coming to our rescue with all those alternative energy sources (market substitutes)?

Cavalry?

I doubt even the Lone Ranger will show up for this one.

Hi Ho Ag !

But Kimosabi ...
only he knows where on the map
we can find the
Temple of the Last Oils:

Deadly wind, rain slam Seattle area: Deluge in rush-hour commute transforms streets into rivers

Three dead, 1.5 million without power.  Bridges closed, cars floating down the streets.  

A 41-year-old woman died after becoming trapped in her basement.  How do you get trapped in a basement? Couldn't you climb up the stairs before the water reached the ceiling?

Maybe the stairway became a waterfall and the elderly women didn't have the strength to fight it?  
She's only 41 years old.