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DrumBeat: December 5, 2006
Posted by threadbot on December 5, 2006 - 10:40am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Experts worry warmer Earth will slash farm yields
WASHINGTON - Urgent action is needed to make sure a warming climate doesn't slash crop yields, heighten the risk of famine and deepen poverty for the world's most vulnerable, international experts said on Monday.
China seeks direct talks with OPEC
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - China wants to start direct negotiations with OPEC to secure a stable oil supply and an equitable share of the oil market, a top official said here Monday, in comments that underline the Chinese economy's rapidly growing energy needs.Zhai Jun, China's assistant minister of foreign affairs, told conference participants in Dubai that his country was trying to develop "a negotiating mechanism with OPEC."
"Only through this can we maintain security and stability of our oil imports," Zhai said in a speech to the Arab Strategy Forum here.
Is Peak Oil Pessimism a Generation of Men Coming to Realise How Useless They Are?
One of the main impacts of the Age of Cheap Oil, the great Petroleum Party so rapidly drawing to a close, has been the monumental deskilling that has gone on during that time. A friend of mine recently told me of a friend of his 14 year old son, who had grown up eating sliced bread, and was unable to actually cut a slice of bread from a loaf! How many people now know how to cook, garden, build, repair, mend, pickle, prune or scythe? In the space of two generations, we have lost so much basic knowledge and skills that previous generations learnt by osmosis without even thinking about it.
The reality of our time was captured long ago by H.G. wells’ observation that we are in a race between education and catastrophe.
On the Road Again: How the world got addicted to oil, and where biofuels will take us
How to value a grandchild: First, choose your discount rate
I have recently been alerted to what many people term "peak oil." I don't know how to characterize my feelings regarding this subject. Obsession might be a good term. I feel that I need to prepare. What do you think? Is "peak oil" another Y2K?
Renewable Resources: An Investment Hedge Against Peak Oil
The long-term trend of resource depletion - manifested today in the "peak oil" phenomenon - poses a severe challenge to an investor. Where do you find lasting value in a scenario where rising energy costs impact every industry and business, inflate all currencies, and make location value unpredictable as transport patterns reorganize?
Albania finds power in global market
The Albanian power corporation said Tuesday it had reached agreement with three international companies to secure electricity supply for three months. In the meantime, it has instituted power cuts as supply from local hydropower has been reduced because of a lack of rain.
New Alberta Premier: No Plans to Slow Energy Development
Alberta Premier-Designate Ed Stelmach, the new de facto leader of the province, said Monday that he has no plans to slow down the development of Alberta's oil and gas resources.However, he does plan to seek changes to the province's oil and gas royalty regime, and in particular will look to encourage heavy crude producers to process their output in Alberta.
OPEC chief estimates oil oversupply at one million bpd
ABU DHABI - OPEC president and Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru said there was an oversupply of oil of some one million barrels daily on world markets, the official Emirati WAM news agency reported.
Oil, gas, production in Russia over 11 months grows
MOSCOW(Itar-Tass) - The oil production in Russia over 11 months amounted to 439 million tonnes, which is 9.7 million tonnes more than a year ago, the economic news agency PRIME-TASS reports with reference to the Central Control Department of the fuel and energy complex.The export of Russian oil amounted to 225.85 million tonnes, which is 4.687 million tonnes more than in January-November of 2005.
Australia's energy future more costly
Qatar, Japan's energy white knight
TOKYO - Qatar is expected to emerge as a country that holds the key to Japan's future energy security as it becomes the country's biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) around 2010.
Oil firms say Norway needs more offshore exploration
OSLO, NORWAY — Norway needs to open up new offshore oil exploration areas and step up the search in existing zones if it is to remain a key oil exporter, a national oil industry association report said Monday.“We have no time to lose,” it said. “Exploration activity must be intensified and its results must be improved.”
Malaysia calls for sustainable expansion of palm oil plantations
J-Power Aims to Raise Overseas Profits; Shares Jump
J-Power, Japan's biggest coal-power generator, is stepping up investment abroad to capture rising demand in China, Vietnam and Thailand, where economic growth is increasing electricity use. Utilities are building coal power stations after crude oil prices more than doubled since 2003, and J-Power aims to use its expertise in plants that cut pollution from burning the fuel.
Raymond J. Learsy: An Energy Agenda for a Newly Energized Congress (Part III)- Curbing Oil's Influence
The current influence of the oil industry on our government, the executive branch, Congress, and friendly court jurisdictions has permitted the oil industry to call the shots on regulation, royalty payments, access to public lands and on. Our government has become so wedded to oil's purported needs at the expense of the national interest that it is well past time that steps be taken to right this gross imbalance.
Expert: Careful on biofuel subsidies
MUNCIE, Ind. -- A recent study states that government subsidies for the ethanol industry need to be more critically evaluated, but ethanol supporters say the billions of dollars government funding has helped the industry grow.
$800M will benefit renewable energy
More than 600 renewable energy projects are being funded by $800 million from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service.The money is being allocated in the form of Clean Renewable Energy tax credit bonds that replace interest payments in tax-free form. Applicants are in the process of being notified by the IRS.
Switchgrass Research Aims to Create Ethanol to Power Vehicles for $1 Per Gallon
African solar farms to solve energy crisis?
Satellite-based studies cited in the report show that deploying relatively simple concentrated solar power (CSP) systems over just 0.3 percent of the deserts in the Middle East and North Africa would provide enough power to meet current and future demands from the EU, the Middle East and North Africa.
From MSNBC:
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Alps experiencing warmest time in 1,300 years
`It will undoubtedly get warmer in the future,' official says
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Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Antarctica in the news:
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Sediments extracted from the Antarctic seafloor show the world's largest ice shelf has disintegrated and reappeared many times in the past.
Scientists know ice shelves are the most vulnerable part of the Antarctic. On the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have risen 2.5C in the past 50 years, there have been spectacular collapses such as the demise in 2002 of the Larsen B shelf.
The collapse of an ice shelf can lead to further loss of ice from the Antarctic continent itself.
Previous drilling has showed that ice sheets were quite dynamic, collapsing and reforming in line with the Earth's Milankovitch cycles. These are small "wobbles" in the Earth's orbit that are known to happen roughly every 20,000, 40,000 and 100,000 years.
But said Dr Naish, "during all those natural cycles, carbon dioxide never got above 300 parts per million. So in the last 200 years, we've had this geologically unprecedented increase in CO2 - it's 30% higher than it has been over the last several million years and it's occurred at a rate we've never seen geologically."
Dr Naish muses: "If they collapsed in the past without the present level of CO2 and the Earth was two to three degrees warmer, what's going to happen with the doubling of CO2 and potentially much higher temperatures?"
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Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/newsletter/Newsletter71.pdf
761. Regional Assessment - LATIN AMERICA
762. Newsweek Covers Oil
763. Peak Oil and World War
764. Oil Company hints
765. A Dip in Oil Price
766. Norway addresses Peak Oil
767. EU Transition to a Sustainable Energy System
768. Russia pressed at G8 Meeting
769. Global Warming and Peak Oil
770. Major Oil Companies seem to pass peak
771. ASPO USA Boston Conference great success
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/newsletter/en/pdf/Newsletter72.pdf
Articles in this newsletter:
2007 it is then. The chaos of War will end the Mass Delusion.
And when the Mass Delusion ends, Peak Energy will no longer be an academic excersize.
And we will no longer have the luxury of slipping back into our own daily delusions.
Mother Nature says, "You are responsible for you - no excuses will be accepted."
Best of luck in your profoundly locale.
What crystal ball does he have that allows him entree into the psyches of "doomers"?
His arguments are all ad hominem, which makes them not arguments at all.
Such psychoanalysis is the art of applying motives to other persons in such a way as to flatter one's own preconceptions.
Huh? Isn't that exactly what you just did?
His post also attracted some intelligent comments though, which are worth reading. Matt Savinar appreciates the psychology issue, anyway. The notable exception is the "kill the engineers!" comment made by one of the lunatics who post on TOD.
Let's face it though, males are pretty much superfluous. The only reason we exist is so that females can exchange DNA.
To hell with "higher purposes!"
I have some family who feel this way. Guys who think their purpose is bringing home the check, and then basically staying out of the way. They've given up on having a life themselves. Very sad.
I suppose you were joking, but 'many a truth is told in jest'..
Step Back mentioned how emotion and irrationality have to be tackled before we can even start making really sensible choices about securing our future, and the above is a fine example. Boys get taught that their highest value for their society will be their willingness to kill other men, or die trying.. a very old, very irrational message that sells lots of plastic (and Metal) toys.
Being very serious,
Bob
(Beloved Dad, Great Husband, Brother, Son, Friend to all mankind.. quite popular with the Puppies and wee Kittens, too.)
I have always been inclined towards being a generalist, but that hasn't had a positive affect on my career trajectory. And if I'm honest with myself, I have to admit that while I know a little about a lot of things, I don't know much about anything.
The bottom line is that being a generalist doesn't pay well. Ask the small farmer -- if you can still find one, that is. I guarantee you that he/she has more of the sort of knowledge that Hopkins is talking about than most of us, but if that sort of knowledge was really useful in our present society, family farmers wouldn't be working two or three jobs to keep the bank from foreclosing on them.
Rob's point is that a whole generation of young men has been conditioned by that pressure; and when they contemplate "peak oil," they respond with doomerism.
I don't think that Rob is judging so much as observing.
I tend to agree with him. I'm in the older generation (56), and don't feel freaked out by the prospect of peak oil. We will manage. Manual labor and household skills are satisfying in a way that desk jobs aren't. One doesn't need consumer crap and cheap flights to Europe to have a happy, satisfying life.
The good news for men is that we will again be valued for characteristically male skills: moving heavy objects, fixing machines, opening stuck jar lids.
Well I'm going to disagree vehemently with his theory (but not diss him as a person because it is the theory we are talking about and not its proponent).
There are major differences between the way women think and the way men cognate. If you are not aware of that yet then you are probably from Venus or Mars rather than from Planet Earth.
The life experience of most women is that if there is a "technical" geeky problem, some man will come around and fix it. No need to waste cognitive energy worrying about that kind of stuff.
On the other hand, for a geek oriented male (not an AMPOD) the inability to fix the next tech problem means you won't have a chance in hell (as if you ever had one) to mate with the alpha female and pass you genetic code onto the next generation of nerds. Thus it is doom. It is the ultimate catastrophe.
I do feel a number of regrets, though. Specializing for success in the last half century has meant taking on more and more sedentary, cerebral jobs. This has left guys like me in our mid 50's with too much lifespan left to avoid feeling the effects, but not enough physical capacity left to continue succeeding in the brave new world. If I was only 20 years younger...
The other regret is that I may not be able to continue caring for my family as effectively as I have, once the requirements begin to change. I think for many men this is a very disturbing realization.
Like Rob I've wondered why there are so few women in the Peak Oil community. It could be that since men are inherently problem-solvers, we tend to be more interested than women in seeking out and understanding problems. The women I've told about the problem all get it right away, but they tend not to obsess about it. Their reactions vary from "We'll muddle through," to "Don't talk to me about problems, talk to me about solutions," to "This might not be such a bad thing, you know!"
I think on the whole women tend to be more connected to the world around them, and suffer less from mind/body, man/nature dualisms than men do. Next time I'm coming back as a woman.
Yes, but Rob's theory is specific to MEN. He conveniently ignores the fact women are just as useless as men these days.
Doubt many of them would be attracted by our views, though ;)
I don't think it's as much of an issue for women. Even in these "liberated" times, females get the message that their place is to be decorative, not necessarily useful. "The average woman would rather be pretty than smart, because the average man can see better than he can think."
Men are the ones who are supposed to take care of their families, be the provider, etc.
Yes ... if we continue to accept current culture.
But if there is no oil,
If there is no way to care & provide,
Then you may see an epidemic of men going crazy,
Doing who knows what to those around them.
And then being "Pretty like Paris" (Hilton) instead of smart and swift may not be adaptive in a Darwinian sense.
But don't worry.
We'll "muddle through" that part also when we get to it. :-)
The women I've known to be concerned about peak oil don't get obsessed with it (especially not with the numbers and graphs). Instead they tend to get involved with food, gardening and community.
If one re-defines Peak Oil to include food, gardening and community, then the mix of the sexes is much more even.
There's something to be said for both approaches.
He basically says that if you believe Peak Oil to be a catastrophe, it is because you are useless IT geek with no skills. On the other hand, if you are more optimistic like he is it's because you are more usefull.
Okay, lets apply our critical thinking skills here. (Critical thinking will still be important after Peak Oil, correct?) Here goes:
The fact that modern women are as useless sans petroleum as modern men are seems wholly lost on him. His theory, that men are doomers b/c they realize are useless sans pretorleum is bunk. If that was what is repsonsible for doomerism, you'd have just as many women show up at the PO doom-fests as men b/c modern women are just as useless as modern men.
But I guess we can't expect too much critical thinking or analysis from Rob. He's got sock knitting classes to attend, don't you know?
This is mostly Rob trying to insult and demean people who don't feel the same way he does. Basically a peak oil dick size contest is what he's trying to engage in here.
Personally I've responded to PO with doomerism b/c I follow the money. It's simple: trillions are being spent for oil and oil wars while billions are being spent to get away from oil and oil wars. You do the math.
If you're not freaked out by PO I suspect it's because your brain has simply wired itself to keep the real consequences compartmentalized. (It has to do this or you wouldn't be able to function.) If you were in Baghdad right now, would you not be a bit freaked out by the consequences of PO? Simialrly if you were in Bangladesh, would you not be a bit freaked out by PO's cousin, Climate Change?
The problem with Peak Oil is that it's not something that one can solve with arguments or intense reasoning. One can go around and around the same issues to no avail.
Sometimes it's good to set those things aside for awhile and enjoy the little things in life. My mother-in-law used to hear me talking for hours with my fiancee on the couch... trying to think things out, plan for this or that contingency.
"You think too much," was her sage advice.
Well, I still think too much and I'm just as obsessed with peak oil in my way as you are in yours. But I've learned from women friends and working people how to slow down and take things one at a time. Hopefully I'm not such a slave to the "thinking" mode as I once was.
There's something to be said for knitting socks, long hike, preparing food. They help put things into perspective.
Dmitry's presentation, which was originally made to the Petrocollapse conference in New York City last April is now online in document form:
http://energybulletin.net/23259.html
A similar phenomenon occurs among men in retirement. Those who had all their self-worth tied up in their job do poorly in retirement - the death rate is very high. Those men who found their self-worth elsewhere (knitting socks?) had the easiest transition.
For as long as women can have babies, they will never regard themselves as useless. That is the fundamental difference. I thought you understood this stuff. Guess I was wrong.
Anyhoo, it would be more entertaining for him to call somebody like Kunstler "useless" face-to-face in real life as Kunstler has the viciously sarcastic sense of humor and would verbally rip him several new ones large enough you could plant container gardens in them.
when you are part of an army
of angry men?
I grew up with homemade bread, but I didn't slice my own until I left home. Mainly because my mom is something of a control freak. Her kitchen is her castle. She didn't like her loaves sliced crooked, so she did the slicing for us.
To be fair, her whole wheat sourdough bread is extremely soft - crustless, even - so it's not easy to slice evenly.