The US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA) has a history of providing poor forecasts as illustrated in their International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) forecast for Canada. In the IEO2003 they stated:
"Canada's conventional oil output is expected to increase by more than 200,000 barrels per day over the next 2 years, mainly from Newfoundland's Hibernia oil project, which could produce more than 155,000 barrels per day at its peak sometime in the next several years. Canada is projected to add an additional 500,000 barrels per day in output from a combination of frontier area offshore projects and oil from tar sands."
Assuming the total increase of 700,000 b/d for Canada was for the 2003 to 2005 period, the US DOE/EIA was only off by 710,000 b/d. In 2003, Canada's total liquid hydrocarbons (TLHs) production was 3.11 mb/d and in 2005 it was 3.10 mb/d (US DOE/EIA data/I used TLHs data because they include NGLs in their forecasts), a decline of 10,000 b/d. If the baseline was 2002, then they were off by only 555,000 b/d. That's not bad for the US DOE/EIA. I had made what I thought was a good case in my book that Canada's oil production would not increase by anything approaching 700,000 b/d for the 2002 to 2005 period.
It is interesting to see that Canada's oil production decreased 29,000 b/d in 2005 (US DOE/EIA oil production data). Part of the decrease is due to prolonged shutdowns in production from oil sands operations, which seems to be a persistent problem. Production has also decreased in Atlantic Canada due to declining production from the Hibernia and Terra Nova fields (Hibernia actually had a peak of 204,264 b/d in 2004). Atlantic Canada's oil production declined from 336,885 b/d in 2003 to 304,847 b/d in 2005. The White Rose field was brought on- line in Nov. 2005 so that will slow the decline of Atlantic Canada's oil production.
The US DOE/EIA is projecting that global oil production will not peak before 2037. I would not bet any money on their forecast.
Those platforms are the first relics of the lost city of New Orleans. Kind of like Old Rome's aqueducts or the Roman Colleseum. Since those damaged platforms are for mostly depleted fields anyways, why bother? I suppose the owners could sell the scrap instead of leave them to serve as modern ruins. (and lawsuit hazards as trespassers occupy them)
Leaving unmanned damaged property exposes the owner to lawsuits in case a trespasser gets injured, so it'll make sense to scrap them and get some money for the steel and/or useful artifacts resold as surplus. Or, if that's not feasable, sell them for a buck to a church, like so many companies did with abandoned factories. A derelect platform is surely loaded with hazards, so you outsource the lawsuit hazard to a schnook church.
I barely started reading Professor and got a upset stmach ...( I think I tried to swallow this line and just can't seem to get it down... SPARE ME pathetic finger-pointing twit thinking)
"reform" policies, which, like in the US, have only one goal: make it easier for business to pay workers less, treat them worse, pay less tax, and suffer fewer regulatory cosntraints."
DailyKos has upset my stomach frequently lately too. A few years ago, the Libs/Dems were more based in reality, but appear to me to have decided that making up a fake world to live in worked so well for the Cons/Repubs that they will now follow that policy too.
Reality is that "economic" (capitalist) conditions will get rapidy worse, and permanently, in the immediate future, and people at DailyKos think that all that is needed to solve it all is to elect Dems. rrrright ... and what are they gonna do?
You sound like a bird of like-minded feathers. I agree with you completely about the reality you see coming - that is as I see it to.
Real Cut-Throat Capitalism Nature's Style and the mindless among the far-left liberals would be eaten alive in the First Round. Not that I care who runs us into the ground. It just gets boring hearin the childish, self-pitying whimpering from THEM and then watch them do NOT A DAMN THING about it in their own lives or Own Home Towns ... Just Pick a ScapeGoat for why their Fantasy World Could Not Compete in Mother's NATURE.
EVIL Leaders Practice to Prep for Peaceful Transition to Totalitarin Regime
((there are several Cracks like this in the African Portion of Humpty Dumpty already widening...))
(alternate title: ""Coming to a HomeTown Theater of Operations Near U SOON !!! "")
--------------------- Energy Officials Meet Over Fuel Shortage
Energy authorities are holding crisis talks with petroleum providers to try and resolve the fuel shortage situation. (blah) said government had to intervene following a countrywide fuel shortage that hit Botswana this week. "Oil industries have been rationalising amongst themselves," said Molosiwa revealing that since last December, government had made different interventions in the oil industry business.
This follows a critical shortage of fuel, which began in South Africa at the weekend and spread... problems at South African refineries...
"...criticised motorists for what he termed making the situation worse by panic-buying fuel."
No, not expand or clarify - just to provide another example for liberal Kos of a (small) country for them to pick on for being an Evil Big Brother Government with Bad Intent. Funny you attack the poster and not the content - oh but that's right, it was beyond your comprehension. Maybe if you had to read some of the Kos article to understand. Oh, and feel free to correct my spelling and grammer for me - I could use a good secretary like you.
Normally people provide another example to expand/clarify a point.
Funny you attack the poster and not the content
If I was attacking the poster I'd use language that is considered banned in polite society, and state that your upbrinning involved you being dropped on your head.
oh but that's right, it was beyond your comprehension.
Really? I wonder how many other TODers find your posts 'hard to follow'?
Oh, and feel free to correct my spelling and grammer for me - I could use a good secretary like you.
I do not play that game of spelling/grammer checker. Others like playing spell/grammer checker in an attempt to discredit the ideas of others, but such is a petty tactic.
I'm asking for you to be more clear with your writing. In case you actually have a good idea worth examining. Things like the below are noise.
Oh oh Astro, looks like I gots under some little flocker's feathers. How cute. I provide and example of a justifiable situation which could also be claimed to be some sinister Evil Corp/Gov. plot - somethinig directly related to the SLANT of the article the good Professor posted. Something easily understood by any intelligent person who actually read the article but even after a second try you still failed to make that simple connection.
Dropped on my head... ah, hmm, yes, speaking ofchildish and banal...
You should be careful saying you and "other tods" can't understand my post. You may be demonstrating your very own ignorance in public - since I've had several discusions with others who clearly did understand my writin' as well as the content (wow! huh?). And like I said, feel free to scroll on if you lack comprehension.
Funny, you whimper about not being able to understand my posts yet you seem to be able to read some of them - if not understand them. Impressive how you have taken the time to hunt down those post (or did you bookmark them). You're not a stalker-type are you lil' charlie? LOL. I've become a very important person in your life perhaps?
Two things are happening simultaneously that would seem to be contradictory:
Bush and cronies seem to be sinking beneath the waves with even conservatives in open revolt, Dubai deal dead, etc.
Yet the march to war on Iran proceeds, step by relentless step ahead, unimpeded.
It almost seems like the war machine and the political machine are not fully linked, proceeding somewhat independently. It's like the political show is a tin can dragged along side by a tank, which is going where its going with little awareness of the can.
It's worth pointing out that Bush and his ilk are believers in the "unitary executive," essentially an all-powerful, unfettered president. Witness Bush's practice of issuing a "signing statement" on new legislation which explains how he'll interpret it; Jefferson, among others of the white wig set, must be doing 50,000 RPM in their graves by now.
Bush is out to shift the entire US as far to the right as he can in his remaining days in office. He doesn't give a flying fig about polls or anything else; if he can do something to further enrich the wealthy or transfer money to companies like Halliburton, he will.
Having said that, I'm still highly skeptical about their intention to start a war with Iran. The Iraq war was clearly a very bad idea (and I've been saying so since months before it officially started), but it pales in comparison to the debacle that would be war with Iran. I have to believe that even some of Bush's cronies are bright enough to see that it would be so bad, even in their twisted, incredibly narrow world view, that it should be avoided if at all possible.
I am not sure they intend to "start a war" in the conventional sense. They may be preparing a larger scale version of what Clinton, Bush Sr., and Reagan often did - sending in special teams to do special operations. (Yes, we did lots of nasty things in small scale in years past.)
In this case, Bush has 3 Marine expeditionary forces in or around the Persian Gulf having arrived since January of this year and naval deployment around the world is up from the low 70% range to the low 80% range over the last 7 weeks. Observing the Navy, they have surged a couple times as high as 86% but it keeps sliding back down to 80%-82%. I'm guessing the Navy is pretty strained right now to be keeping that many ships underway and/or deployed so some keep coming back to home port.
However, this force could easily do something against Iran other than attempt to seize their territory. It could be used for a lightning punitive strike against Iranian military assets or it could be used as a second response force if the US and Israel can provoke a hostile first move by Iran. And I personally believe that this is one option - try to get Iran to react first in order to galvanize world opinion against Iran.
Note that I still don't think any of these approaches can work but Curtis LeMay once observed about the era of nuclear weapons (I'm paraphrasing from memory here): it doesn't matter if the other guy can actually win or not, what matters is whether he believes he can win which is what will spur him to even try. LeMay went on to say that it was his job to ensure that the other guy never even thought about winning. In this case, someone needs to impress upon Bush that he can't win because despite everything else, it certainly seems like he still believes he can win such a confrontation with Iran. And it's not the fact that Bush will lose such a war that will stop it; it's that Bush should believe he cannot win such a war that will stop it.
<i"Note that I still don't think any of these approaches can work but "</i>
I think you are right that none of these approaches will work but... but in my mind, it depends on what You mean mby "Work."
The outcome expected in the short-term from this current Confrontation? OR are you talking about the Greater Problem to begin with - the Crisis of Energy that cannot be resolved by Homo Sap. No matter how many Horses or Men Talk about it, we be done now and Take A Rest for a couple decades .. to cool off from our exponential growth in population Wave. In the big picture, this specific crisis is just one tiny symptom and the symptom might work itself out this one more time before TimezUp.
The trick is to get Iran to get stupid first. One way is to play the diplomacy game and keep nudging them about the nuke stuff until they say "F$%#@ it" and shut the valve tight. Since the oil weapon is their most effective weapon, that is what they'll have to do. On shutting the valve (and taking a pipe wrench to the handle) oil prices will gyrate out of control, given how there is no swing producer. (Iraq is still down)
With a world now mad about uncontrolled prices, it'll be less difficult to get support from oil importers. At the same time, oil exporters get a massive windfall of money. This becomes a wildcard. The exporters could be placated OR give aid to Iran. If the latter, we end up with a quagmire that makes Iraq look easy.
But of course, the oil weapon is one weapon they have, but more than one permutation. Using go-fast bombers - basically human-guided torpedoes - they can shut the valve AND take out tankers. Go-fast bombers only amplifies the oil weapon greatly. So, even trying to get Iran to get stupid first is a poor strategy. Bush, DON'T DO IT!
You remember my comment back here? - http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/24/11925/2060
If I was the Iranian boss I'd be working flat out to prepare for it. And why stop at one p*ssed-off worker - in a workforce of thousands there are likely to be hundreds willing to tote the heavy lunchpails...
And that way it isn't Iran turning off the tap in Iran, its someone (dissident Saudis?) turning off the tap over there.
It is quite possible that Iran will never actually have to use the oil weapon at all. To all intents and purposes they are now the global swing producer.
Given the continued pressure on Iraqi supplies due to ongoing sabotage, and the successes of MEND at cutting Nigerian supply by 20% in February alone, it will take a very small push ( a GoM hurricane, say ) in the next few months to render Iran untouchable. In the meantime they need only piddle around at the edges by not answering their phones when the Europeans or the Japanese call to place an order for a few hundred thousand barrels for delivery next month.
The Iranians have demonstrated a very serious absence of stupidity thus far, unlike the Bush administration.
LOOk GreyZone (I love that - very littel black and whit, yes/no == Quantitate, not qualitate into little meaningless boxes in the Mind).
Unlike Papa Doc etc, it looks like Baby Doc is trying to go UN more now that our Troop Strength is stretchin' a bit thin maybe ???
---------------------
Africa: Group Slams Janus Face of U.S. Policy
Inter Press Service (Johannesburg)
March 9, 2006
When some 6,000 U.S.-led NATO forces land next June for two weeks of manoeuvres in Cape Verde, will they be rehearsing more for rapid deployment in humanitarian emergencies, as in Darfur, Sudan, or for securing oil supplies and access to other key Africanresources?
I suppose one is talking about an "imperial presidency" or a form of "dictatorhip", sorry, I realise this sounds over dramatic, but it might be accurate. Aren't we sliding in that direction? Al Gore made a speech a few weeks ago, which appeared to get more coverage outside the US than in it. Maybe that's important too. Whatever one thinks of his politics, I think it's interesting that he, a presidential candidate and former vice president, basically said that the Constitution was under attack as never before. It was a rallying cry to Americans and a warning that the current administration is realeasing forces that down the line are a direct threat to American democracy.
If we are to believe the current administration, they seem to be arguing that the president, in his supreme role as commander in chief in a time of war, is not only above the law - he is the Law! This concept doesn't just interpret the Constition - it shreds it. The whole point of America was a rejection of monarchy and the devine right of kings to rule. The Founding Fathers distrusted men, but put their faith in the rule of law. They did their best to create a system that would outlive them and garantee the pimacy of law and the balance of power to dilute it.
Right now all that seems to have failed. Whether this is a mere temporary aboration or a defining moment in our history - well the jury is still out on that.
I think Jerry Pournelle has been talking about the slide of the US from republic to empire for well over a decade now. The topic still comes up from time to time over at his Chaos Manor In Perspective website. Most people know Jerry either as a writer for computer magazines like Byte and Dr. Dobb's Journal, or as a sci-fi author but not many seem to realize his long involvement in our country's space program from the inception of NASA forward. He's an interesting read. I don't always agree with him but I always enjoy the thinking he forces me to go through regarding issues.
In any event, we seem to be on the cusp of a transition to this "imperial presidency" notion and it may be the camel's nose poking into the tent. Unfortunately, I fear the camel won't be chased out of the tent but rather invited inside the rest of the way.
No, writerman, of what you speak is not just a temporary aberration, but rather a definite pathway along which the US is rushing headlong toward disaster.
Totalitarianism, corruption, and injustice are the natural outcome of man's baser instincts. The brilliance of the US Constitution was (note the past tense) that it recognized our human failings and devised a system of government that was highly resistant, though not immune, to such baser instincts.
But a piece of paper is only as good as the faith that is put in it, and that right now is pretty low, if it exists at all.
In my opinion, the most foolish statement is: "It can't happen here." Well, it looks like it already is happening here.
At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, I will state quite outright that I think the real purpose of the Department of Homeland Security is not so much to protect the masses from terrorists but rather to protect the government and the People Who Run the Show from the masses when the proverbial Shit Hits the Fan.
The government response to Katrina was but a dress rehearsal. That response looked less like disaster relief and more like a field exercise in imposing de facto marshall law and in taking control over all services and infrastructure.
If we get another major 'terrorist attack'......you ain't seen nuttin yet!
I think you have an interesting point but you also make a good point about the Rock&Hard Place Bush is in now.
Is it Possible that Bush is acting responsibly under the current Crisis Conditions and that he is Not some Totalitarian Freak Show?
Is it possible that the Katrina Effort that looked like Marshall law etc -- was that maybe a NECESSARY response to get the infrastructure etc in place? Are you perhaps wish-fullfilling painting a picture to suit your preconcieved idiolized dreams of "FrankenBushStein" ????
BUSH FINALLY gits the feds involved and He STILL get's reamed... poor guy, hope his wife doesn't act like his "subjects" the poor, self-pitying Things.
I really don't know. However, I tend to doubt that Bush has all that much grasp of anything that doesn't involve war in the Middle East.
Still, even IF he had the best intentions of getting the federal government to do all that it was capable of doing, you still have to look at the way the government behaved. To me, what I saw in the streets of New Orleans looked more like marshall law and less like disaster relief. I think this is what FEMA was really set up to do.
I genuinely think that this administration is just looking for any reason to impose de facto marshall law. And I fear they will conveniently find one. I just hope that time will prove me wrong.
Joule (you are a joule too - nice conversing), I honestly think you have nailed it almost.
I think FEMA etc screwed the pooch, as did the LOCALS (99% responsible in my mind). They had a Lvl 3 Hurricane Drill 4 years ago and should have woke up then - all of them.
I think you are right about Bush. I think Knows taht with this enery crisis there is no other response than Marshall Law etc that would have a chance of working. But I don't think Bush is a Demon, I think he just knows there is no way the First World Peoples are educated enough, awake enough from TV Zombie land, etc ... Our Previous WORLD leadership let ALL of us down for Many Generations. Now the Piper is waiting to be Paid.
This is by far the most impressive "Wave" by Humanity yet. It was Bound to Crash just like every single other major and minor growth wave in every single corner of the Earth since Homo Sap Started Practicing at Civilized 'Ations.
I think they believe they can secure the Straights of Hormuz, and eventually hold the oil fields, after first hitting the Iranian military targets from the air.
It also provides a pretext for consolidating control in the US. They do need to move fast, as they're having trouble with Republicans in congress - although this is really just an election thing. The port "rebellion" was a minor issue, and congress was free to pretend they had some backbone, but the administration can still count on support when they want it. Now they'll want to test their control over the judicial branch, where they just put on two big-time supporters of the "unitary executive".
We talk about the Bush administration getting battered and being in trouble - I don't see it that way. They have had a huge victory on the Supreme Court, and have established the ability of the president to conduct domestic spying. They continue to eliminate limits to presidential power at all turns - this is the goal.
These are fundamentally undemocratic people - popularity means nothing to them, only power. The election problem can be handled by the press, rigged elections, and a few strategic "incidents" that cause a surge of patriotism. Remember that 1/3 of the voters will support them no matter what they do, and there is no candidate of consequence for the opposition to vote for - it should be possible to stay in power.
Above all these are people who believe in their own superiority - they will proceed unless stopped by their own total failure. They will try to goad Iran into taking the first overt action, but I doubt Iran will be that stupid. Our special forces are probably playing games now. Iran has plenty of opportunity to respond in kind - was that the message of the recent SA attack? Eventually though, they've got to have a pretext for overt military action. They'll have enough diplomatic confusion to spin as an excuse soon - then they'll only need a spark. Once the war starts, a draft will be near at hand - waiting only for the right political moment.
And if the US population does not revolt, what is the rest of the world going to do about it? The choices are war, or facing destroying their own economies in order to bring down ours.
Their power is not complete at this point, but they are moving fast. This year will be critical.
You make some excellent points, Twilight. However, I'm not sure about this statement.
...it should be possible to stay in power.
How do you propose this happening? The only administration official I can see having a fighting chance in the 2008 election is Ms. Rice. And look at the difficulty Al Gore had in 2000 distancing himself from the sins of his boss. Ms. Rice also has the obvious problem of her obfuscation regarding pre-9/11 intelligence and planning.
Frist, McCain, and others are hardly of this "group." And this still requires the Republicans to beat the Democrats. As poor as the Democratic field may be at this point, the US has just about had it with Republicans - Delay, Abramoff, Enron, etc.
Unless you think Jeb Bush can win in 2008, I think it's over for the Bushes until Jenna and her sister grow up.
I realize you have a somewhat paranoid view of Bush's policies, most notably the NSA domestic spying thing, I just don't think that is going to be enough to seize power under some kind of manufactured wartime emergency.
You talk of 1/3 of the population supporting him no matter what he does. If this is the case, thank God for American democracy there is a third that will oppose him no matter what he does.
I didn't say they would stay in power - one can never be sure how things will play out - only that I see it as quite possible. The only one who cannot take office again (as things stand now) is Bush, and I consider him a figurehead anyway.
It also depends on how you define who is in power - I don't regard the individuals as all that important, including Mr. Bush, who I regard as a figurehead. The Bushes (and other families) don't need to be publicly in office, they only want unfettered money and power. I don't think Jeb is viable because of the catholic issue. This is a big enough group of people that if a few have to step away for a bit for appearances, it won't matter much.
Frist is sale, he will carry water for whoever buys him. McCain is probably too unpredictable, but he has shown an incredible willingness to go along with them lately - especially considering his POW backgound and what they did to him in previous presidential campaigns. But it does not need to be either of them - there is allways another power hungry politician who will serve. It is not about ideology, only about power itself.
I think the 1/3 that will support the - well, I have to call them fascists, as I don't see them as traditional conservatives - will vote more reliably than the 1/3 oppose. And that more of their votes will be counted.
As far as the NSA spying, I don't think its point was to be enough to seize power all by itself. I think it was done because the targets were political and would never have been approved by FISA. Once exposed, they used it to establish that the president does not have to ask about who he spies on. This is a pattern - even though they get beat up, they never shy from a fight, and almost end up always pushing the limits to a new point (in their favor). Thus they don't need to worry about breaking the rules - if they don't get caught they get away with it, and if they do they usually end up getting the rules changed. If someone gets really busted, they can be cast aside for a while. The Democrats cannot win, because they are not willing to fight without limits and to win at any cost.
And that's how the war with Iran will go - once it starts, who is going to do anything about it? Will Americans riot, overthrow their government? Unlikely. Vote him out? - he's not up for another 3yrs. The biggest risk for them is losing the house this fall - therefore Iran around the end of summer, unless it needs to be moved up due to other problems.
Thank you for replying. I don't know how things will turn out either, but I would give other scenarios a chance. For instance, what if the Dems won the house this fall, and some type of a "smoking gun" turned up, definitively linking Bush and Cheney to a manufacture of WMD evidence/intel leading up to their invasion of Iraq. This case would have impeachment written all over it.
I agree, that's the other side of the coin. I'm a bit too used to bad news to be hopeful, but it's certainly possible. This is one of those moments in history where big things can happen. It will be interesting to watch at the very least!
Depends. I expect the Republicans to splinter between the earnership high income group on one hand, and the old testament christians on the other. The earnership high income Republicans and the former ownership Republicans will do the witchhunting the Democrats don't have the stomache for. I do expect large numbers of the present administration to go to jail. I just expect it's going to be the former Republicans in the 2008 coalition government tasked with the payback.
I expect the Republican party to split over the collapse or real estate and bond values caused by demographic shifts and currency collapse during the import renormalisation. IE, real estate on the metrocoastal areas will collapse as people move to the flyover to start digging coal, rolling steel, assembling cars, etc. Bonds will tank as lack of imports causes hyperinflation. Government cutbacks will destroy support for the military industrial complex as the budget can no longer be financed by selling bonds to the Chinese, et al, and the cutbacks will hit the Republican pork because the Democratic pork is mostly already gone.
The Night Of Long Knives is coming. It's just that it's the northern Republicans that will wield them.
Interesting, but I would only expect that to happen if the fascists take too long consolidating power. If they move quickly enough, the party will not rebel - first they would support them fo
Kind of a big drop, but a lot of it may be hurricane damage.
Then again, many damaged Gulf oil rigs won't be repaired.
http://www.policypete.com/Misc/DOEandCANADA1.htm
Comments by Roger Blanchard:
The US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA) has a history of providing poor forecasts as illustrated in their International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) forecast for Canada. In the IEO2003 they stated:
"Canada's conventional oil output is expected to increase by more than 200,000 barrels per day over the next 2 years, mainly from Newfoundland's Hibernia oil project, which could produce more than 155,000 barrels per day at its peak sometime in the next several years. Canada is projected to add an additional 500,000 barrels per day in output from a combination of frontier area offshore projects and oil from tar sands."
Assuming the total increase of 700,000 b/d for Canada was for the 2003 to 2005 period, the US DOE/EIA was only off by 710,000 b/d. In 2003, Canada's total liquid hydrocarbons (TLHs) production was 3.11 mb/d and in 2005 it was 3.10 mb/d (US DOE/EIA data/I used TLHs data because they include NGLs in their forecasts), a decline of 10,000 b/d. If the baseline was 2002, then they were off by only 555,000 b/d. That's not bad for the US DOE/EIA. I had made what I thought was a good case in my book that Canada's oil production would not increase by anything approaching 700,000 b/d for the 2002 to 2005 period.
It is interesting to see that Canada's oil production decreased 29,000 b/d in 2005 (US DOE/EIA oil production data). Part of the decrease is due to prolonged shutdowns in production from oil sands operations, which seems to be a persistent problem. Production has also decreased in Atlantic Canada due to declining production from the Hibernia and Terra Nova fields (Hibernia actually had a peak of 204,264 b/d in 2004). Atlantic Canada's oil production declined from 336,885 b/d in 2003 to 304,847 b/d in 2005. The White Rose field was brought on- line in Nov. 2005 so that will slow the decline of Atlantic Canada's oil production.
The US DOE/EIA is projecting that global oil production will not peak before 2037. I would not bet any money on their forecast.
Roger Blanchard Sault Ste. Marie, MI
Leaving unmanned damaged property exposes the owner to lawsuits in case a trespasser gets injured, so it'll make sense to scrap them and get some money for the steel and/or useful artifacts resold as surplus. Or, if that's not feasable, sell them for a buck to a church, like so many companies did with abandoned factories. A derelect platform is surely loaded with hazards, so you outsource the lawsuit hazard to a schnook church.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/3/9/103152/2652
"reform" policies, which, like in the US, have only one goal: make it easier for business to pay workers less, treat them worse, pay less tax, and suffer fewer regulatory cosntraints."
Reality is that "economic" (capitalist) conditions will get rapidy worse, and permanently, in the immediate future, and people at DailyKos think that all that is needed to solve it all is to elect Dems. rrrright ... and what are they gonna do?
Real Cut-Throat Capitalism Nature's Style and the mindless among the far-left liberals would be eaten alive in the First Round. Not that I care who runs us into the ground. It just gets boring hearin the childish, self-pitying whimpering from THEM and then watch them do NOT A DAMN THING about it in their own lives or Own Home Towns ... Just Pick a ScapeGoat for why their Fantasy World Could Not Compete in Mother's NATURE.
Ijits.
((there are several Cracks like this in the African Portion of Humpty Dumpty already widening...))
(alternate title: ""Coming to a HomeTown Theater of Operations Near U SOON !!! "")
---------------------
Energy Officials Meet Over Fuel Shortage
Energy authorities are holding crisis talks with petroleum providers to try and resolve the fuel shortage situation. (blah) said government had to intervene following a countrywide fuel shortage that hit Botswana this week. "Oil industries have been rationalising amongst themselves," said Molosiwa revealing that since last December, government had made different interventions in the oil industry business.
This follows a critical shortage of fuel, which began in South Africa at the weekend and spread... problems at South African refineries...
"...criticised motorists for what he termed making the situation worse by panic-buying fuel."
And was your reply to yourself trying to clarify what you said? Because your response didn't expand OR clarify.
Perhaps English is not your first language?
Ok..... then you say
just to provide another example
Normally people provide another example to expand/clarify a point.
Funny you attack the poster and not the content
If I was attacking the poster I'd use language that is considered banned in polite society, and state that your upbrinning involved you being dropped on your head.
oh but that's right, it was beyond your comprehension.
Really? I wonder how many other TODers find your posts 'hard to follow'?
Oh, and feel free to correct my spelling and grammer for me - I could use a good secretary like you.
I do not play that game of spelling/grammer checker. Others like playing spell/grammer checker in an attempt to discredit the ideas of others, but such is a petty tactic.
I'm asking for you to be more clear with your writing. In case you actually have a good idea worth examining. Things like the below are noise.
Here you admit to not using your meds
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/8/174150/3540#93
Here you talk about 'mother' (in the context of 'mother earth')
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/8/153250/8238#93
And here you are writing like you are asking premission of 'mother' to 'talk'
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/9/95523/93587#116
Dropped on my head... ah, hmm, yes, speaking ofchildish and banal...
You should be careful saying you and "other tods" can't understand my post. You may be demonstrating your very own ignorance in public - since I've had several discusions with others who clearly did understand my writin' as well as the content (wow! huh?). And like I said, feel free to scroll on if you lack comprehension.
Funny, you whimper about not being able to understand my posts yet you seem to be able to read some of them - if not understand them. Impressive how you have taken the time to hunt down those post (or did you bookmark them). You're not a stalker-type are you lil' charlie? LOL. I've become a very important person in your life perhaps?
How about it ?
But it would make it easier not to step on eachother's cerebral cortexes (some peoplez are VERY sensitive...).
And that way we waste less bandwidth on people with egos trying to measure the size of their penis in public.
BUT
Any changes would have to be tracked and while hosting and providing uptime/access is a labor of love, I doubt there is THAT much love.
At this time it is simpler to just remember who's off their meds and ignore 'em by yourself.
Bush and cronies seem to be sinking beneath the waves with even conservatives in open revolt, Dubai deal dead, etc.
Yet the march to war on Iran proceeds, step by relentless step ahead, unimpeded.
It almost seems like the war machine and the political machine are not fully linked, proceeding somewhat independently. It's like the political show is a tin can dragged along side by a tank, which is going where its going with little awareness of the can.
I don't think it will be long now.
Bush is out to shift the entire US as far to the right as he can in his remaining days in office. He doesn't give a flying fig about polls or anything else; if he can do something to further enrich the wealthy or transfer money to companies like Halliburton, he will.
Having said that, I'm still highly skeptical about their intention to start a war with Iran. The Iraq war was clearly a very bad idea (and I've been saying so since months before it officially started), but it pales in comparison to the debacle that would be war with Iran. I have to believe that even some of Bush's cronies are bright enough to see that it would be so bad, even in their twisted, incredibly narrow world view, that it should be avoided if at all possible.
In this case, Bush has 3 Marine expeditionary forces in or around the Persian Gulf having arrived since January of this year and naval deployment around the world is up from the low 70% range to the low 80% range over the last 7 weeks. Observing the Navy, they have surged a couple times as high as 86% but it keeps sliding back down to 80%-82%. I'm guessing the Navy is pretty strained right now to be keeping that many ships underway and/or deployed so some keep coming back to home port.
However, this force could easily do something against Iran other than attempt to seize their territory. It could be used for a lightning punitive strike against Iranian military assets or it could be used as a second response force if the US and Israel can provoke a hostile first move by Iran. And I personally believe that this is one option - try to get Iran to react first in order to galvanize world opinion against Iran.
Note that I still don't think any of these approaches can work but Curtis LeMay once observed about the era of nuclear weapons (I'm paraphrasing from memory here): it doesn't matter if the other guy can actually win or not, what matters is whether he believes he can win which is what will spur him to even try. LeMay went on to say that it was his job to ensure that the other guy never even thought about winning. In this case, someone needs to impress upon Bush that he can't win because despite everything else, it certainly seems like he still believes he can win such a confrontation with Iran. And it's not the fact that Bush will lose such a war that will stop it; it's that Bush should believe he cannot win such a war that will stop it.
I think you are right that none of these approaches will work but... but in my mind, it depends on what You mean mby "Work."
The outcome expected in the short-term from this current Confrontation? OR are you talking about the Greater Problem to begin with - the Crisis of Energy that cannot be resolved by Homo Sap. No matter how many Horses or Men Talk about it, we be done now and Take A Rest for a couple decades .. to cool off from our exponential growth in population Wave. In the big picture, this specific crisis is just one tiny symptom and the symptom might work itself out this one more time before TimezUp.
Maybe.
With a world now mad about uncontrolled prices, it'll be less difficult to get support from oil importers. At the same time, oil exporters get a massive windfall of money. This becomes a wildcard. The exporters could be placated OR give aid to Iran. If the latter, we end up with a quagmire that makes Iraq look easy.
But of course, the oil weapon is one weapon they have, but more than one permutation. Using go-fast bombers - basically human-guided torpedoes - they can shut the valve AND take out tankers. Go-fast bombers only amplifies the oil weapon greatly. So, even trying to get Iran to get stupid first is a poor strategy. Bush, DON'T DO IT!
If I was the Iranian boss I'd be working flat out to prepare for it. And why stop at one p*ssed-off worker - in a workforce of thousands there are likely to be hundreds willing to tote the heavy lunchpails...
And that way it isn't Iran turning off the tap in Iran, its someone (dissident Saudis?) turning off the tap over there.
Given the continued pressure on Iraqi supplies due to ongoing sabotage, and the successes of MEND at cutting Nigerian supply by 20% in February alone, it will take a very small push ( a GoM hurricane, say ) in the next few months to render Iran untouchable. In the meantime they need only piddle around at the edges by not answering their phones when the Europeans or the Japanese call to place an order for a few hundred thousand barrels for delivery next month.
The Iranians have demonstrated a very serious absence of stupidity thus far, unlike the Bush administration.
Unlike Papa Doc etc, it looks like Baby Doc is trying to go UN more now that our Troop Strength is stretchin' a bit thin maybe ???
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Africa: Group Slams Janus Face of U.S. Policy
Inter Press Service (Johannesburg)
March 9, 2006
When some 6,000 U.S.-led NATO forces land next June for two weeks of manoeuvres in Cape Verde, will they be rehearsing more for rapid deployment in humanitarian emergencies, as in Darfur, Sudan, or for securing oil supplies and access to other key Africanresources?
http://allafrica.com/stories/200603100066.html
Complacenty KILLZ more critters each day than all other Mechanism of DEATH combined... i bet
If we are to believe the current administration, they seem to be arguing that the president, in his supreme role as commander in chief in a time of war, is not only above the law - he is the Law! This concept doesn't just interpret the Constition - it shreds it. The whole point of America was a rejection of monarchy and the devine right of kings to rule. The Founding Fathers distrusted men, but put their faith in the rule of law. They did their best to create a system that would outlive them and garantee the pimacy of law and the balance of power to dilute it.
Right now all that seems to have failed. Whether this is a mere temporary aboration or a defining moment in our history - well the jury is still out on that.
In any event, we seem to be on the cusp of a transition to this "imperial presidency" notion and it may be the camel's nose poking into the tent. Unfortunately, I fear the camel won't be chased out of the tent but rather invited inside the rest of the way.
Totalitarianism, corruption, and injustice are the natural outcome of man's baser instincts. The brilliance of the US Constitution was (note the past tense) that it recognized our human failings and devised a system of government that was highly resistant, though not immune, to such baser instincts.
But a piece of paper is only as good as the faith that is put in it, and that right now is pretty low, if it exists at all.
In my opinion, the most foolish statement is: "It can't happen here." Well, it looks like it already is happening here.
At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, I will state quite outright that I think the real purpose of the Department of Homeland Security is not so much to protect the masses from terrorists but rather to protect the government and the People Who Run the Show from the masses when the proverbial Shit Hits the Fan.
The government response to Katrina was but a dress rehearsal. That response looked less like disaster relief and more like a field exercise in imposing de facto marshall law and in taking control over all services and infrastructure.
If we get another major 'terrorist attack'......you ain't seen nuttin yet!
Is it Possible that Bush is acting responsibly under the current Crisis Conditions and that he is Not some Totalitarian Freak Show?
Is it possible that the Katrina Effort that looked like Marshall law etc -- was that maybe a NECESSARY response to get the infrastructure etc in place? Are you perhaps wish-fullfilling painting a picture to suit your preconcieved idiolized dreams of "FrankenBushStein" ????
BUSH FINALLY gits the feds involved and He STILL get's reamed... poor guy, hope his wife doesn't act like his "subjects" the poor, self-pitying Things.
I really don't know. However, I tend to doubt that Bush has all that much grasp of anything that doesn't involve war in the Middle East.
Still, even IF he had the best intentions of getting the federal government to do all that it was capable of doing, you still have to look at the way the government behaved. To me, what I saw in the streets of New Orleans looked more like marshall law and less like disaster relief. I think this is what FEMA was really set up to do.
I genuinely think that this administration is just looking for any reason to impose de facto marshall law. And I fear they will conveniently find one. I just hope that time will prove me wrong.
I feel very much like a 'good German' circa 1934.
I think FEMA etc screwed the pooch, as did the LOCALS (99% responsible in my mind). They had a Lvl 3 Hurricane Drill 4 years ago and should have woke up then - all of them.
I think you are right about Bush. I think Knows taht with this enery crisis there is no other response than Marshall Law etc that would have a chance of working. But I don't think Bush is a Demon, I think he just knows there is no way the First World Peoples are educated enough, awake enough from TV Zombie land, etc ... Our Previous WORLD leadership let ALL of us down for Many Generations. Now the Piper is waiting to be Paid.
This is by far the most impressive "Wave" by Humanity yet. It was Bound to Crash just like every single other major and minor growth wave in every single corner of the Earth since Homo Sap Started Practicing at Civilized 'Ations.
It also provides a pretext for consolidating control in the US. They do need to move fast, as they're having trouble with Republicans in congress - although this is really just an election thing. The port "rebellion" was a minor issue, and congress was free to pretend they had some backbone, but the administration can still count on support when they want it. Now they'll want to test their control over the judicial branch, where they just put on two big-time supporters of the "unitary executive".
We talk about the Bush administration getting battered and being in trouble - I don't see it that way. They have had a huge victory on the Supreme Court, and have established the ability of the president to conduct domestic spying. They continue to eliminate limits to presidential power at all turns - this is the goal.
These are fundamentally undemocratic people - popularity means nothing to them, only power. The election problem can be handled by the press, rigged elections, and a few strategic "incidents" that cause a surge of patriotism. Remember that 1/3 of the voters will support them no matter what they do, and there is no candidate of consequence for the opposition to vote for - it should be possible to stay in power.
Above all these are people who believe in their own superiority - they will proceed unless stopped by their own total failure. They will try to goad Iran into taking the first overt action, but I doubt Iran will be that stupid. Our special forces are probably playing games now. Iran has plenty of opportunity to respond in kind - was that the message of the recent SA attack? Eventually though, they've got to have a pretext for overt military action. They'll have enough diplomatic confusion to spin as an excuse soon - then they'll only need a spark. Once the war starts, a draft will be near at hand - waiting only for the right political moment.
And if the US population does not revolt, what is the rest of the world going to do about it? The choices are war, or facing destroying their own economies in order to bring down ours.
Their power is not complete at this point, but they are moving fast. This year will be critical.
How do you propose this happening? The only administration official I can see having a fighting chance in the 2008 election is Ms. Rice. And look at the difficulty Al Gore had in 2000 distancing himself from the sins of his boss. Ms. Rice also has the obvious problem of her obfuscation regarding pre-9/11 intelligence and planning.
Frist, McCain, and others are hardly of this "group." And this still requires the Republicans to beat the Democrats. As poor as the Democratic field may be at this point, the US has just about had it with Republicans - Delay, Abramoff, Enron, etc.
Unless you think Jeb Bush can win in 2008, I think it's over for the Bushes until Jenna and her sister grow up.
I realize you have a somewhat paranoid view of Bush's policies, most notably the NSA domestic spying thing, I just don't think that is going to be enough to seize power under some kind of manufactured wartime emergency.
You talk of 1/3 of the population supporting him no matter what he does. If this is the case, thank God for American democracy there is a third that will oppose him no matter what he does.
It also depends on how you define who is in power - I don't regard the individuals as all that important, including Mr. Bush, who I regard as a figurehead. The Bushes (and other families) don't need to be publicly in office, they only want unfettered money and power. I don't think Jeb is viable because of the catholic issue. This is a big enough group of people that if a few have to step away for a bit for appearances, it won't matter much.
Frist is sale, he will carry water for whoever buys him. McCain is probably too unpredictable, but he has shown an incredible willingness to go along with them lately - especially considering his POW backgound and what they did to him in previous presidential campaigns. But it does not need to be either of them - there is allways another power hungry politician who will serve. It is not about ideology, only about power itself.
I think the 1/3 that will support the - well, I have to call them fascists, as I don't see them as traditional conservatives - will vote more reliably than the 1/3 oppose. And that more of their votes will be counted.
As far as the NSA spying, I don't think its point was to be enough to seize power all by itself. I think it was done because the targets were political and would never have been approved by FISA. Once exposed, they used it to establish that the president does not have to ask about who he spies on. This is a pattern - even though they get beat up, they never shy from a fight, and almost end up always pushing the limits to a new point (in their favor). Thus they don't need to worry about breaking the rules - if they don't get caught they get away with it, and if they do they usually end up getting the rules changed. If someone gets really busted, they can be cast aside for a while. The Democrats cannot win, because they are not willing to fight without limits and to win at any cost.
And that's how the war with Iran will go - once it starts, who is going to do anything about it? Will Americans riot, overthrow their government? Unlikely. Vote him out? - he's not up for another 3yrs. The biggest risk for them is losing the house this fall - therefore Iran around the end of summer, unless it needs to be moved up due to other problems.
It's not foregone, but they are very, very close.
I expect the Republican party to split over the collapse or real estate and bond values caused by demographic shifts and currency collapse during the import renormalisation. IE, real estate on the metrocoastal areas will collapse as people move to the flyover to start digging coal, rolling steel, assembling cars, etc. Bonds will tank as lack of imports causes hyperinflation. Government cutbacks will destroy support for the military industrial complex as the budget can no longer be financed by selling bonds to the Chinese, et al, and the cutbacks will hit the Republican pork because the Democratic pork is mostly already gone.
The Night Of Long Knives is coming. It's just that it's the northern Republicans that will wield them.