Friday open thread
Posted by Yankee on March 10, 2006 - 1:42pm
The real world is intruding today. Blab away.
“Of all races in an advanced stage of civilization, the American is the least accessible to long views… Always and everywhere in a hurry to get rich, he does not give a thought to remote consequences; he sees only present advantages… He does not remember, he does not feel, he lives in a materialist dream.”
—Moiseide Ostrogorski (1902, 302-303)
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Kind of a big drop, but a lot of it may be hurricane damage.
Then again, many damaged Gulf oil rigs won't be repaired.
http://www.policypete.com/Misc/DOEandCANADA1.htm
Comments by Roger Blanchard:
The US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA) has a history of providing poor forecasts as illustrated in their International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) forecast for Canada. In the IEO2003 they stated:
"Canada's conventional oil output is expected to increase by more than 200,000 barrels per day over the next 2 years, mainly from Newfoundland's Hibernia oil project, which could produce more than 155,000 barrels per day at its peak sometime in the next several years. Canada is projected to add an additional 500,000 barrels per day in output from a combination of frontier area offshore projects and oil from tar sands."
Assuming the total increase of 700,000 b/d for Canada was for the 2003 to 2005 period, the US DOE/EIA was only off by 710,000 b/d. In 2003, Canada's total liquid hydrocarbons (TLHs) production was 3.11 mb/d and in 2005 it was 3.10 mb/d (US DOE/EIA data/I used TLHs data because they include NGLs in their forecasts), a decline of 10,000 b/d. If the baseline was 2002, then they were off by only 555,000 b/d. That's not bad for the US DOE/EIA. I had made what I thought was a good case in my book that Canada's oil production would not increase by anything approaching 700,000 b/d for the 2002 to 2005 period.
It is interesting to see that Canada's oil production decreased 29,000 b/d in 2005 (US DOE/EIA oil production data). Part of the decrease is due to prolonged shutdowns in production from oil sands operations, which seems to be a persistent problem. Production has also decreased in Atlantic Canada due to declining production from the Hibernia and Terra Nova fields (Hibernia actually had a peak of 204,264 b/d in 2004). Atlantic Canada's oil production declined from 336,885 b/d in 2003 to 304,847 b/d in 2005. The White Rose field was brought on- line in Nov. 2005 so that will slow the decline of Atlantic Canada's oil production.
The US DOE/EIA is projecting that global oil production will not peak before 2037. I would not bet any money on their forecast.
Roger Blanchard Sault Ste. Marie, MI
Leaving unmanned damaged property exposes the owner to lawsuits in case a trespasser gets injured, so it'll make sense to scrap them and get some money for the steel and/or useful artifacts resold as surplus. Or, if that's not feasable, sell them for a buck to a church, like so many companies did with abandoned factories. A derelect platform is surely loaded with hazards, so you outsource the lawsuit hazard to a schnook church.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/3/9/103152/2652
"reform" policies, which, like in the US, have only one goal: make it easier for business to pay workers less, treat them worse, pay less tax, and suffer fewer regulatory cosntraints."
Reality is that "economic" (capitalist) conditions will get rapidy worse, and permanently, in the immediate future, and people at DailyKos think that all that is needed to solve it all is to elect Dems. rrrright ... and what are they gonna do?
Real Cut-Throat Capitalism Nature's Style and the mindless among the far-left liberals would be eaten alive in the First Round. Not that I care who runs us into the ground. It just gets boring hearin the childish, self-pitying whimpering from THEM and then watch them do NOT A DAMN THING about it in their own lives or Own Home Towns ... Just Pick a ScapeGoat for why their Fantasy World Could Not Compete in Mother's NATURE.
Ijits.
((there are several Cracks like this in the African Portion of Humpty Dumpty already widening...))
(alternate title: ""Coming to a HomeTown Theater of Operations Near U SOON !!! "")
---------------------
Energy Officials Meet Over Fuel Shortage
Energy authorities are holding crisis talks with petroleum providers to try and resolve the fuel shortage situation. (blah) said government had to intervene following a countrywide fuel shortage that hit Botswana this week. "Oil industries have been rationalising amongst themselves," said Molosiwa revealing that since last December, government had made different interventions in the oil industry business.
This follows a critical shortage of fuel, which began in South Africa at the weekend and spread... problems at South African refineries...
"...criticised motorists for what he termed making the situation worse by panic-buying fuel."
And was your reply to yourself trying to clarify what you said? Because your response didn't expand OR clarify.
Perhaps English is not your first language?
Ok..... then you say
just to provide another example
Normally people provide another example to expand/clarify a point.
Funny you attack the poster and not the content
If I was attacking the poster I'd use language that is considered banned in polite society, and state that your upbrinning involved you being dropped on your head.
oh but that's right, it was beyond your comprehension.
Really? I wonder how many other TODers find your posts 'hard to follow'?
Oh, and feel free to correct my spelling and grammer for me - I could use a good secretary like you.
I do not play that game of spelling/grammer checker. Others like playing spell/grammer checker in an attempt to discredit the ideas of others, but such is a petty tactic.
I'm asking for you to be more clear with your writing. In case you actually have a good idea worth examining. Things like the below are noise.
Here you admit to not using your meds
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/8/174150/3540#93
Here you talk about 'mother' (in the context of 'mother earth')
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/8/153250/8238#93
And here you are writing like you are asking premission of 'mother' to 'talk'
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/9/95523/93587#116
Dropped on my head... ah, hmm, yes, speaking ofchildish and banal...
You should be careful saying you and "other tods" can't understand my post. You may be demonstrating your very own ignorance in public - since I've had several discusions with others who clearly did understand my writin' as well as the content (wow! huh?). And like I said, feel free to scroll on if you lack comprehension.
Funny, you whimper about not being able to understand my posts yet you seem to be able to read some of them - if not understand them. Impressive how you have taken the time to hunt down those post (or did you bookmark them). You're not a stalker-type are you lil' charlie? LOL. I've become a very important person in your life perhaps?
How about it ?
But it would make it easier not to step on eachother's cerebral cortexes (some peoplez are VERY sensitive...).
And that way we waste less bandwidth on people with egos trying to measure the size of their penis in public.
BUT
Any changes would have to be tracked and while hosting and providing uptime/access is a labor of love, I doubt there is THAT much love.
At this time it is simpler to just remember who's off their meds and ignore 'em by yourself.
Bush and cronies seem to be sinking beneath the waves with even conservatives in open revolt, Dubai deal dead, etc.
Yet the march to war on Iran proceeds, step by relentless step ahead, unimpeded.
It almost seems like the war machine and the political machine are not fully linked, proceeding somewhat independently. It's like the political show is a tin can dragged along side by a tank, which is going where its going with little awareness of the can.
I don't think it will be long now.
Bush is out to shift the entire US as far to the right as he can in his remaining days in office. He doesn't give a flying fig about polls or anything else; if he can do something to further enrich the wealthy or transfer money to companies like Halliburton, he will.
Having said that, I'm still highly skeptical about their intention to start a war with Iran. The Iraq war was clearly a very bad idea (and I've been saying so since months before it officially started), but it pales in comparison to the debacle that would be war with Iran. I have to believe that even some of Bush's cronies are bright enough to see that it would be so bad, even in their twisted, incredibly narrow world view, that it should be avoided if at all possible.
In this case, Bush has 3 Marine expeditionary forces in or around the Persian Gulf having arrived since January of this year and naval deployment around the world is up from the low 70% range to the low 80% range over the last 7 weeks. Observing the Navy, they have surged a couple times as high as 86% but it keeps sliding back down to 80%-82%. I'm guessing the Navy is pretty strained right now to be keeping that many ships underway and/or deployed so some keep coming back to home port.
However, this force could easily do something against Iran other than attempt to seize their territory. It could be used for a lightning punitive strike against Iranian military assets or it could be used as a second response force if the US and Israel can provoke a hostile first move by Iran. And I personally believe that this is one option - try to get Iran to react first in order to galvanize world opinion against Iran.
Note that I still don't think any of these approaches can work but Curtis LeMay once observed about the era of nuclear weapons (I'm paraphrasing from memory here): it doesn't matter if the other guy can actually win or not, what matters is whether he believes he can win which is what will spur him to even try. LeMay went on to say that it was his job to ensure that the other guy never even thought about winning. In this case, someone needs to impress upon Bush that he can't win because despite everything else, it certainly seems like he still believes he can win such a confrontation with Iran. And it's not the fact that Bush will lose such a war that will stop it; it's that Bush should believe he cannot win such a war that will stop it.
I think you are right that none of these approaches will work but... but in my mind, it depends on what You mean mby "Work."
The outcome expected in the short-term from this current Confrontation? OR are you talking about the Greater Problem to begin with - the Crisis of Energy that cannot be resolved by Homo Sap. No matter how many Horses or Men Talk about it, we be done now and Take A Rest for a couple decades .. to cool off from our exponential growth in population Wave. In the big picture, this specific crisis is just one tiny symptom and the symptom might work itself out this one more time before TimezUp.
Maybe.
With a world now mad about uncontrolled prices, it'll be less difficult to get support from oil importers. At the same time, oil exporters get a massive windfall of money. This becomes a wildcard. The exporters could be placated OR give aid to Iran. If the latter, we end up with a quagmire that makes Iraq look easy.
But of course, the oil weapon is one weapon they have, but more than one permutation. Using go-fast bombers - basically human-guided torpedoes - they can shut the valve AND take out tankers. Go-fast bombers only amplifies the oil weapon greatly. So, even trying to get Iran to get stupid first is a poor strategy. Bush, DON'T DO IT!
If I was the Iranian boss I'd be working flat out to prepare for it. And why stop at one p*ssed-off worker - in a workforce of thousands there are likely to be hundreds willing to tote the heavy lunchpails...
And that way it isn't Iran turning off the tap in Iran, its someone (dissident Saudis?) turning off the tap over there.
Given the continued pressure on Iraqi supplies due to ongoing sabotage, and the successes of MEND at cutting Nigerian supply by 20% in February alone, it will take a very small push ( a GoM hurricane, say ) in the next few months to render Iran untouchable. In the meantime they need only piddle around at the edges by not answering their phones when the Europeans or the Japanese call to place an order for a few hundred thousand barrels for delivery next month.
The Iranians have demonstrated a very serious absence of stupidity thus far, unlike the Bush administration.
Unlike Papa Doc etc, it looks like Baby Doc is trying to go UN more now that our Troop Strength is stretchin' a bit thin maybe ???
---------------------
Africa: Group Slams Janus Face of U.S. Policy
Inter Press Service (Johannesburg)
March 9, 2006
When some 6,000 U.S.-led NATO forces land next June for two weeks of manoeuvres in Cape Verde, will they be rehearsing more for rapid deployment in humanitarian emergencies, as in Darfur, Sudan, or for securing oil supplies and access to other key Africanresources?
http://allafrica.com/stories/200603100066.html
Complacenty KILLZ more critters each day than all other Mechanism of DEATH combined... i bet
If we are to believe the current administration, they seem to be arguing that the president, in his supreme role as commander in chief in a time of war, is not only above the law - he is the Law! This concept doesn't just interpret the Constition - it shreds it. The whole point of America was a rejection of monarchy and the devine right of kings to rule. The Founding Fathers distrusted men, but put their faith in the rule of law. They did their best to create a system that would outlive them and garantee the pimacy of law and the balance of power to dilute it.
Right now all that seems to have failed. Whether this is a mere temporary aboration or a defining moment in our history - well the jury is still out on that.
In any event, we seem to be on the cusp of a transition to this "imperial presidency" notion and it may be the camel's nose poking into the tent. Unfortunately, I fear the camel won't be chased out of the tent but rather invited inside the rest of the way.
Totalitarianism, corruption, and injustice are the natural outcome of man's baser instincts. The brilliance of the US Constitution was (note the past tense) that it recognized our human failings and devised a system of government that was highly resistant, though not immune, to such baser instincts.
But a piece of paper is only as good as the faith that is put in it, and that right now is pretty low, if it exists at all.
In my opinion, the most foolish statement is: "It can't happen here." Well, it looks like it already is happening here.
At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nut, I will state quite outright that I think the real purpose of the Department of Homeland Security is not so much to protect the masses from terrorists but rather to protect the government and the People Who Run the Show from the masses when the proverbial Shit Hits the Fan.
The government response to Katrina was but a dress rehearsal. That response looked less like disaster relief and more like a field exercise in imposing de facto marshall law and in taking control over all services and infrastructure.
If we get another major 'terrorist attack'......you ain't seen nuttin yet!
Is it Possible that Bush is acting responsibly under the current Crisis Conditions and that he is Not some Totalitarian Freak Show?
Is it possible that the Katrina Effort that looked like Marshall law etc -- was that maybe a NECESSARY response to get the infrastructure etc in place? Are you perhaps wish-fullfilling painting a picture to suit your preconcieved idiolized dreams of "FrankenBushStein" ????
BUSH FINALLY gits the feds involved and He STILL get's reamed... poor guy, hope his wife doesn't act like his "subjects" the poor, self-pitying Things.
I really don't know. However, I tend to doubt that Bush has all that much grasp of anything that doesn't involve war in the Middle East.
Still, even IF he had the best intentions of getting the federal government to do all that it was capable of doing, you still have to look at the way the government behaved. To me, what I saw in the streets of New Orleans looked more like marshall law and less like disaster relief. I think this is what FEMA was really set up to do.
I genuinely think that this administration is just looking for any reason to impose de facto marshall law. And I fear they will conveniently find one. I just hope that time will prove me wrong.
I feel very much like a 'good German' circa 1934.
I think FEMA etc screwed the pooch, as did the LOCALS (99% responsible in my mind). They had a Lvl 3 Hurricane Drill 4 years ago and should have woke up then - all of them.
I think you are right about Bush. I think Knows taht with this enery crisis there is no other response than Marshall Law etc that would have a chance of working. But I don't think Bush is a Demon, I think he just knows there is no way the First World Peoples are educated enough, awake enough from TV Zombie land, etc ... Our Previous WORLD leadership let ALL of us down for Many Generations. Now the Piper is waiting to be Paid.
This is by far the most impressive "Wave" by Humanity yet. It was Bound to Crash just like every single other major and minor growth wave in every single corner of the Earth since Homo Sap Started Practicing at Civilized 'Ations.
It also provides a pretext for consolidating control in the US. They do need to move fast, as they're having trouble with Republicans in congress - although this is really just an election thing. The port "rebellion" was a minor issue, and congress was free to pretend they had some backbone, but the administration can still count on support when they want it. Now they'll want to test their control over the judicial branch, where they just put on two big-time supporters of the "unitary executive".
We talk about the Bush administration getting battered and being in trouble - I don't see it that way. They have had a huge victory on the Supreme Court, and have established the ability of the president to conduct domestic spying. They continue to eliminate limits to presidential power at all turns - this is the goal.
These are fundamentally undemocratic people - popularity means nothing to them, only power. The election problem can be handled by the press, rigged elections, and a few strategic "incidents" that cause a surge of patriotism. Remember that 1/3 of the voters will support them no matter what they do, and there is no candidate of consequence for the opposition to vote for - it should be possible to stay in power.
Above all these are people who believe in their own superiority - they will proceed unless stopped by their own total failure. They will try to goad Iran into taking the first overt action, but I doubt Iran will be that stupid. Our special forces are probably playing games now. Iran has plenty of opportunity to respond in kind - was that the message of the recent SA attack? Eventually though, they've got to have a pretext for overt military action. They'll have enough diplomatic confusion to spin as an excuse soon - then they'll only need a spark. Once the war starts, a draft will be near at hand - waiting only for the right political moment.
And if the US population does not revolt, what is the rest of the world going to do about it? The choices are war, or facing destroying their own economies in order to bring down ours.
Their power is not complete at this point, but they are moving fast. This year will be critical.
How do you propose this happening? The only administration official I can see having a fighting chance in the 2008 election is Ms. Rice. And look at the difficulty Al Gore had in 2000 distancing himself from the sins of his boss. Ms. Rice also has the obvious problem of her obfuscation regarding pre-9/11 intelligence and planning.
Frist, McCain, and others are hardly of this "group." And this still requires the Republicans to beat the Democrats. As poor as the Democratic field may be at this point, the US has just about had it with Republicans - Delay, Abramoff, Enron, etc.
Unless you think Jeb Bush can win in 2008, I think it's over for the Bushes until Jenna and her sister grow up.
I realize you have a somewhat paranoid view of Bush's policies, most notably the NSA domestic spying thing, I just don't think that is going to be enough to seize power under some kind of manufactured wartime emergency.
You talk of 1/3 of the population supporting him no matter what he does. If this is the case, thank God for American democracy there is a third that will oppose him no matter what he does.
It also depends on how you define who is in power - I don't regard the individuals as all that important, including Mr. Bush, who I regard as a figurehead. The Bushes (and other families) don't need to be publicly in office, they only want unfettered money and power. I don't think Jeb is viable because of the catholic issue. This is a big enough group of people that if a few have to step away for a bit for appearances, it won't matter much.
Frist is sale, he will carry water for whoever buys him. McCain is probably too unpredictable, but he has shown an incredible willingness to go along with them lately - especially considering his POW backgound and what they did to him in previous presidential campaigns. But it does not need to be either of them - there is allways another power hungry politician who will serve. It is not about ideology, only about power itself.
I think the 1/3 that will support the - well, I have to call them fascists, as I don't see them as traditional conservatives - will vote more reliably than the 1/3 oppose. And that more of their votes will be counted.
As far as the NSA spying, I don't think its point was to be enough to seize power all by itself. I think it was done because the targets were political and would never have been approved by FISA. Once exposed, they used it to establish that the president does not have to ask about who he spies on. This is a pattern - even though they get beat up, they never shy from a fight, and almost end up always pushing the limits to a new point (in their favor). Thus they don't need to worry about breaking the rules - if they don't get caught they get away with it, and if they do they usually end up getting the rules changed. If someone gets really busted, they can be cast aside for a while. The Democrats cannot win, because they are not willing to fight without limits and to win at any cost.
And that's how the war with Iran will go - once it starts, who is going to do anything about it? Will Americans riot, overthrow their government? Unlikely. Vote him out? - he's not up for another 3yrs. The biggest risk for them is losing the house this fall - therefore Iran around the end of summer, unless it needs to be moved up due to other problems.
It's not foregone, but they are very, very close.
I expect the Republican party to split over the collapse or real estate and bond values caused by demographic shifts and currency collapse during the import renormalisation. IE, real estate on the metrocoastal areas will collapse as people move to the flyover to start digging coal, rolling steel, assembling cars, etc. Bonds will tank as lack of imports causes hyperinflation. Government cutbacks will destroy support for the military industrial complex as the budget can no longer be financed by selling bonds to the Chinese, et al, and the cutbacks will hit the Republican pork because the Democratic pork is mostly already gone.
The Night Of Long Knives is coming. It's just that it's the northern Republicans that will wield them.
Look at the situation now - the traditional conservatives have always been cozy with big business, but much of the present madness runs completely counter to their basic principles, and still they've said and done nothing to stop it (there's been plenty of time). Why? There's too much personal risk in speaking out alone, and too much to gain from riding with the winners. And as you point out, they cannot stop it without destroying their party. The people who are running the show now are insiders from the Nixon, Reagan, and Bush I administrations. They've been there all along - this disease has been eating the GOP for a long time.
The old time, traditional conservative Republicans you look for to take control and save this thing have been out of power for a long time. There won't be any long knives appearing unless the beast is almost dead anyway. Every day it goes a little bit farther, and you're just along for the ride - until one day you've gone so far there's no way back
Hey, I hope you guys are right. My dad believes that regardless of how bad things may be right now, the pendulum will swing back towards the center. I believe that things have changed too much now, and it won't be coming back. But I would be delighted to be wrong.
Now not being stupid doesn't mean you don't make mistakes.
Judge them by their actions not just their words (remembering that even Bush sometimes speaks the truth - "What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."
--George W. Bush, May 2001).
Bush truly believes in the "American Way of Life" (AWOL) and can find solace for his actions so long as they are in the best interests of the AWOL. He knows we will run out of oil and must find alternatives but in the meantime his actions are very stragically serving to protect the AWOL. Find any and all excuses you can to increase US military presence in the Middle East. When push comes to shove we will have our oil whatever it takes. Are we going to war with Iran? We certainly are if it protects our AWOL.
i forget what play it's from.
This will be more like "A Midspring Nights Nightmare" I think...
The Kids vote you out of office. The Children's Republic of Ignorance-Is-Bliss will not like Hearing the TRUTH.
Did you FORGET already that Baby Doc already TRIED to wake up the Dismal Deaf, Dumb and Blind Public (who sttill parties like it's 1999)???
"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."
--George W. Bush, May 2001
All I do know is The Energy problem is waaayyy beyond homo saps abilities. Maybe next time, who knows. We have a lot to learn yet.
But it bothers me that so many people realize this is a virtually impossible task for humans yet they seem to be doing very little - or even willing to consider giving up anything voluntarily - BUT.
They Expect on President in One Country to Solve the Problem... or sumthin.
There have been many, many "constitutions" along the way. I would not get too emotionally attached to any nostalgic piece of paper. Just live it yourself and hope your neighbors do to. I think. I hope. do-not=tread-n me.
Do the Best we Can with what we Have Now (and then).
AWOL is the freedom to ignore the suffering of your neighbors, both locally and globally. The AWOL is the right to externalize the cost of doing business on the weak and poor. The AWOL is the right to ignore the Bill of Rights in the workplace. The AWOL means the government at all levels is run by the highest bidder. The AWOL is the right of usury imposed against 99.999% of the world. The AWOL is freedom of choice only if you can pay or externalize the price. The AWOL is the right to shoot friends without being charged with attempted murder. (sorry that right only belongs to the rich and powerful).
"Americans have made to sacrifice liberties for what they percieve to be security. " I like that learning - with freedom comes responsibility. And it sounds like most people would rather give up their responsibilities and let the gubermint take care of them.
But think about it - consider how homo sap behaves under severe stress. If we end up with Chaos when Peak Symptoms Peak maybe we might appreciate a few less freedoms in return for more protection from some of our rabid neighbors (especially the Frantic and Desperate Onez that did Not take responsibility to Prepare for themselves).
Lone Soldiers of Fortune rarely are.
I do not want this and I am only calling it as I see it. I promise I is not some SOF Wish-full thinker here
----------------------
"You are making my point about the right to ignore the suffering of your neighbors."
NO! No tom - keep good will with your neighbors. You will need eachother. Profoundly Local is all, do not worry about things Beyond Your Control and Beyond Your responisibility - leave THAT to to Baby Doc Bush - He volunteered and was elected for that Worry.
"Could you tell us how much you have invested in prepartion for the genocide you have predicted. "
Everything. Marriage, family, friends, "respectable" scientisticallistic, you name it. Left a beautiful home in Town that we remodeled the previous couple years for a peice of shit in the country just out of town with a few acres.... MUCH SAFER for Useful land to Retain Some value and to be able to be SEMI-self-sufficient... as well as get by with a little help from competent friends adn neighbors...
" What happens to your investment when when you run out of ammunition to protect it?"
I have not been in a fight since the sixth grade. If that changes in the future, I and my flock of like=minded friends and neighbors will Do the Best We Can with What We Have at That TimezUP and place... Imaginary Bridges to be Crossed IF AND WHEN they are encountered.
Mother Nature does not give a feces, or a flying Coitus about the Poor. I do, I will be making an orphanage forthe Little Onez Whose Parents Abdicated Their Responsibilitties ....
Just like the Olden Dayze... Morals Ethics Laws and OTHER Luxuries are Not mine to Decide -
Mother Nature is the Tit-Showin', Scale holdin' One who makes the "Guidelines" --- AND THOSE guidelines SHIFT over Time... just like seasons and geo-time weather patterns....
Ask them who got the most vouchers for fuel, who always had enough to eat and also enough to help feeddestitute relatives... The farm Cousin Mice or the City Cousin Mice ???
People scare themselves needlessly and then do not act because the Remain ignorant to the very real "safer" places ... No "SAFE," that is only in Homo Sap's children's games like tag.
Just think you guys, just do not think like a holywood producer who has Global Warming happen in one week end... THINK like Your Mother.
She thinks in Real Time.
Mother's Book, chapters/contents to help my kids understand what happened and why:
-----------------------------------
The Party's Over, by Richard Heinberg, 2003
The Long Emergency, by James Kunstler, 2005
Hubbert's Peak, the Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth Deffeyes, 2001
The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, David Hackett Fischer, 1996
The Collapse of Complex Societies, New Studies in Archaeology, by Joseph Tainter, 1988
Collapse: How Complex Societies Choose To Fail, by Jarad Diamond, 2005
Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis, by Charles Kindleberger, 1978
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds , By Charles MacKay 1980
The Penniless Billionaires, by Max Shapiro, 1980
The Naked Ape, by Desmond Morris, 1967
The Human Zoo, by Desmond Morris, 1996
The Culture of Narcissism, by Christopher Lasch, 1979
Science On Trial, Douglas Futyuma, whenever
(I know I am forgetting a couple books here...)
South Park - All of them
(to be modified as the Pickers of Lint collect more data and the Thinkers assemble it into a coherent Big Picture worth looking at...)
http://radiojavan.com/play.php
Radio Javan web developers have gotten more sophisticated which required a quick course in PHP.
http://us3.php.net/tut.php
http://mutters.invisionzone.com/index.php?showtopic=4400
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/bpayne37/index.htm#margolis
"The Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy (DSIRE) is a comprehensive source of information on state, local, utility, and selected federal incentives that promote renewable energy. DSIRE now includes state and federal incentives for energy efficiency. Choose one or both databases to search using the check boxes below."
http://www.dsireusa.org/
love to keep up on those incentives etc - and to compare efforts bwtn states etc.
They mention that the diesel engine is one suitable for bio fuels.
It will use a new lighter lead-acid battery that stacks the cells in a more efficient way back-to-back giving a lighter and cheaper to produce lead-acid battery: http://www.effpower.com/
I wonder if this smart pysical layout can be combined with Firefly:s graphite electrode bodies? http://www.fireflyenergy.com/ffy.html
These two technologies would together mean a real break thru for lead-acid batteries making plug-in hybrids practical.
These ideas fit nicely togeather with building small logistics centers in towns and cities where large trucks and trains unload pallets and boxes that then are sorted and distributed to shops etc in the town/city with a minimum of traffic. A medium size hybrid truck would be perfect for the distribution work. Such a small logistics center is planned for my home town Linköping, Sweden to minimize distribution traffic and distribution cost and allow the use of biogas as fuel to get better air quality, etc. (If you need to minimize distribution time use DHL, etc) The rail part of it is far into the future since we have a large rail terminal for loading and unloading containers and whole trailers about 50 km away in Norrköping, Sweden.
I have to argue against a plan to use a bike hooked up to a continuously variable transmission connected to a heavy flywheel connected to a dynamo/generator. The plan's 'author' (think drunken argument in pub ;-) asserts that pedalling effort would remain constant, but when pedalling ceased, electricity generation would continue until the flywheel ran down.
Now I know that energy out can't be more than energy in. But I'm a little stumped as to how the gearing doesn't at least modify the equation somewhat.
help me out here people :-)
By pedaling.
The flywheel and variable gearing will act like a small accumulator storing energy from when you start pedaling to when you stop pedaling and in the meantime you will loose energy by blowing around air with the flywheel and in friction in the variable gearing.
You have a constant speed/constant torque engine of some kind aboard a vehicle. OK, let's say an induction motor powered by batteries and an inverter. To get the vehicle to top out at 60mph, you make the gearing just right, say 2:1. If it's 15HP and the car is slippery, it'll just work. To go 120MPH, air friction goes up by the square but you now need a 1:1 ratio, so RPM doubles at the shaft, but must have 4 times the torque. At the engine at constant RPM, it must have 8 times the torque, not just 4 to overcome air friction.
With a friction-free setup, it'll take twice the engine torque to accellerate the flywheel to the double speed by changing the gear ratio. Flip a 10-speed bike upside down and do the pedal with a hand. Play with the gearing, and you can see a decently friction-free case showing the torque/RPM problem. HINT: That's why fast planes use jets. They sidestep the problem and only contend with square-of-friction as speed doubles. However, even with jets, there is a variant of the ol' torque/RPM problem: Airliners and other subsonic jets always use turbofan engines, not raw jets.
Happily, there is a plus side. A flywheel spinning at 30,000RPM has 4 times the kinetic energy than one spinning at only 15,000RPM. So, that energy isn't wasted except for friction, that bane of flywheels. For a flywheel to compete with lead batteries, it's a pain to design. First, it must be in a vacuum comparable to outer space and have magnetic bearings that don't add eddy currents (serves as friction) and you have to find a friction-free way to get power in and out of that flywheel. And, just for fun, flywheels have angular momentum. That helps explain the invention of gyrocompasses, the success of bicycles, etc. And don't forget that other bane of flywheels: materials like to fly apart as they rev up too much. You don't want to catch some titanium shrapnel.
As you quite accurately pointed out, flywheels have some really serious drawbacks. They may work fine in theory, but once you try to put the idea into practice, all sorts of daunting practical problems raise their head.
My gut feel is that flywheels are not going to go anyplace. Perhaps another dead end in the quest for alternative energy schemes.
http://www.rustyiron.com/engines/flywheel/
The good news is, I seriously doubt someone pedeling could store enough energy in a flywheel to break down a brick wall (see link above for cool photos)
http://www.los-gatos.ca.us/davidbu/pedgen.html
150 Watts from one person pedaling.
That's not a whole lot of power and shows what kind of deep doo doo we will be in when PO hits.
Jared Diamond explains in his Guns Germs & Steel series how important it was for humans to tap into the energy of domesticated animals (horses and oxen) and why, in geographic areas where animals were not domesticatable, the level of civilization was quite low.
I think it's amusing anyway. In the meantime it's more fun to ride outdoors, and probably easier to displace a few gallons of gasoline for transport than a few cents of electricty at home.
http://www.windstreampower.com/humanpower/hpgmk3.html
These devices offer another perspective for solar power. A 150 watt panel is about a one human work equivalent, something to ponder for those potentially grid-free days ahead.
If my metabolism was any more food-efficient it would make a hybrid motorcycle look like a gas guzzler by comparison. Just the perfect metabolism for famines! Since I detest exercise, I'd want that exercise to have a tangible productivity benefit, like keeping batteries charged for blackouts. The bike generator would be perfect for taking a laptop off-grid with a compact fluorescent light and a car stereo used in the home. And you get and stay in shape.
A challenge?
BTW, I should lose thirty pounds--at least.
Currently am doing about twelve to fifteen miles a day, despite occasional snow.
I think some things get to be long enough or hard enough that they resemble "survival events" and the body's gotta be taking them that way ... sacrificing long-term health for short-term survival.
This guy seems to think the natural cycle is harder than that:
http://www.health.drjez.com/Exercise/Paleo%20Exercise.htm
I don't like using bicycles in the street becuse I get startled easally. Otherwise instead of having bought the car, I would have bought a bicycle to use to sidestep that evil Pace bus I would otherwise have to take without a method of transport I own. Were it not for my own anxiety problems, I likely would use a bicycle as a short-range method of transport.
As far as sport, I'm a really lousy athlete. There is no known sport where I'm at all good at it. It's to where any attempt at working out and practising is like a negative ERoEI as we say about an energy resource. One thing's for sure. As I grew up, gym class was such that unless you were good at it, you would be so completely discouraged as to end up sedentary - and our same government wonders why there is an obesity problem. I can tell them why. If there was any possible sport I might possibly be good at it would be driving a motor car. Except for high-G turns in an Indy car race, not exactly athletic, eh?
There I ways I can ride safely to urban neighborhoods, but some parts of Minneapolis are so dangerous I will not ride there. (Murderopolis imported a bunch of the grandchildren of the Blackstone Rangers from south Chicago that I knew well back in the 1950s when their granddadies carried switchblades and were so aggressive that the cops had to patrol in fours to avoid being mugged. The grandkids have assault rifles. Not good.) St. Paul is generally safe, and I ride sidewalks there all the time.
BTW, I usually keep a folding bike in the back of my car and take it with me when I travel by air. Don't leave home without your bike!
So far as diet goes, I am on a see-food diet: I see food, and I eat it. Thus I need to exercise a great deal.
However, overall you will be expending more muscle energy to overcome all the extra friction losses in such a system. In other words, you are not going to win a Tour de France with such a bike. I suspect that if anything kills the idea, it will be that the benefits would not be enough to compensate for the added weight that such a system would inevitably entail.
I once had an idea, which I never developed, for a drag racer bike. It would consist of a pedal-powered flywheel and a clutch. You would have the bike suported by a kickstand but with the wheels resting on the ground. You would then pedal your brains out to get the flywheel revved up. When it got up to a good speed, you would pop the clutch and take off (or more likely flip over backwards from all that sudden torque). Might be fun to mess around with though.
http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6306536.html
This is a demo project, in the real world the losses of such schemes negate any advantages.
Thanks!
That link was most interesting. Looks like a lot of smart people beat me to it.
I happen to have a (rarely used) exercise bike with a large heavy flywheel. I'm getting to urge to mate that to a normal bike and perhaps continue my idea of a drag bike.
Foolishness? Of course, but that's why it's fun.
FYI, Dan Yergin has an article on energy security in Foreign Affairs ($ req).
Excerpts are here.
Mother... should we wish Mr. Yergin LUCK with this misadventure... these so-called sapians tickle so much. As "robust as possible" for WHAT eventualities Mr. SAP-FOOL Yergin?
"This should get Much funnier Much sooner that anticipated I betz," says The Mother.
http://www.cbc.ca/edmonton/story/ed-fortchip20060310.html
Of course, given that this is just one medical doctor's on-the-job findings the link is very tenuous. It could very well be diet or something else causing the elevated rates of cancer and health problems. But the story is enough to make me nervous about the oil well that's going in on a property adjacent to one I'm interested in.
The take home message is that what we call the environment is really our environment. It's the air we breath, the water we drink, and the food we eat. Man, I'm going to feel even more self-righteous than usual when I cycle home from work tonight.
This is an exceptional film (see the trailer) covering the oil industry, its history, realistic depletion issues, supply challenges, the potential for military intervention, and affects on humanity -- and really covers most of the crucial issues covering peak oil. It ends with a stunning message.
The film includes in-depth, thought-provoking interviews with Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons, Roscoe Bartlett, David Goodstein, Matt Savinar, Terry Lynn Karl, Fadhil Chalabi, Robert Ebel and others. Shot on location at oil fields in Azerbaijan, Venezuela, the Middle East and Texas, with original music by Daniel Schnyder and Philip Glass. The film is a terrific addition to the already growing repertoire of peak oil films such as End of Suburbia, Power Down, and Peak Oil: Imposed by nature.
CrudeAwakening strongly endorses the film and we encourage you to watch for it, or attend the premier in Austin if you can.
Bravo! to the producers Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack!
The others I am aware of.
Do you think people who still are living in a city should have their Heads Examined by You?
It seems the people of New Orleans could give some tips to Complacent City dwellers. No? I mean, what happened at that Superior Domed Thingy that all kinds of refugees Thought Would be a Refuge?
Thank you, I'll just watch for your answer (and not walk below open windows on city sidewalks for now on...).
----------------
CAPE TOWN
Cape blackouts hamper sewers
Mon, 06 Mar 2006
Cape Town's waste management officials are planning several clean up operations to remove raw sewerage from waterways.
Sewerage treatment plants around the city ground to a halt last week after the province experienced rolling blackouts due to the electricity crisis.
http://iafrica.com/news/sa/945758.htm
(from lifeaftertheoilcrash)
Funny... cowards or intellectuals w/o a spine?
OR... or... maybe they be Chicken-Littleless-
shitz afraid of a simple Testosterone and Adrenaline I.V. Drip Test of their Pathetic Sky-High Phantasmz that feeble minds conjuoured up long, long timezUPs ago...over and over even... and stole bits and pieces of from even..
intellectual midgets will be one of the funniest chapters in the Book of Homo the Sap... THen somdayze.
A lesson in Ethics, Morality and LAWZ of Sap"
(soon forgotten or not-wanted-to-be-remembered example of Sap in Action... cool-hand Sap alright...lol)
------------------------------
High prices, lines and fights at gas pumps after attack
By BRAD FOSS
Associated Press
NEW YORK -- In the hours after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, gas stations around the United States jacked up their prices and some motorists scuffled in long lines at the pumps.
In Topeka, Kan., a 78-year-old man was arrested for aggravated assault after he allegedly pulled a pellet gun on another customer and bumped his car into another to get to a pump.
"We got an e-mail from Oklahoma City saying gas was over $6 a gallon," Ronda Hunter said while waiting in line for gas in western Topeka. "The news said it was jumping to $4 a gallon. Is this madness or what?"
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/special/terror/economy/1045498.html
Hey, it's all about commerce and supply and demand, isn't it?
We will fight over the last crumbs like the high class chimps we really are.
High Class Chimp we are not - HAIRLESS Biped that thinks far 2to2 much of Itself (that's what Mother Nature seems to be thinking about now anyway).
The Mother.
We All have a little charlie in us... and he seems to poke his nose into our business at all the wrong timeszUp and places...hmmmm???
or even the Mayor is Looking Out for Us?
Why not take responsibility for OurSelves This TimezUP for Just once?))
Prime Example of Delusional Thinking at Mid_Level Sap Zone:
----------------------
Awad also said the negative side of the jobs data is that it raises the risk that the Federal Reserve is going to have to raise rates over a longer than expected period, increasing the risk at some point down the road that they will begin to affect the economy negatively.
"But for the moment, it looks like it's breaking on the side of the bulls. In other words, let's not worry about the future negative effect of interest rates, but let's enjoy the current strong economic growth we're experiencing and let's reflect that in stock prices," he commented...
--------------------
"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."
--George W. Bush, May 2001
That is right. 50 slaves each for each First Worlder.
And NOTICE WHEN America gave up Slavery... When We Cold Afford that moral/ethic/law. All of history is littereed with slavery and will be in the future again (it still goes on - just at LOW AMBIANT LEvels until the Oil Energy starts to dwindle...
Then we go back to Traditional Morals, Ethics and Laws that are a lot more like "Guidelines" anyway.
Muscle power is very inefficient; we are much better off using brain power.
Very, VERY strange behavior down here in StandUP tallChimp land if you ask me.
Even in Intelligent and Informed Populations
there are still Many in the Delusion that SAYS, "all will be handled by 'someone else.'"
They do not seem as individuals to be preparing individually. Intead they bitch because Bush doesn't Wipe their butts. THIS IS STARTING TO FREAK ME OUT oh Mother -O-Mine/. I am freaked out that so few or maybe NONE of them seems to be taking Any Realistic Action in their own lives...
Unf*cking believeable to Me at This timezUp and Place Ma, unfunkin' belivieable
"What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America."
--George W. Bush, May 2001
(never mind Baby Doc, they ARE NOT LISTENING.. for the Starting Gunz anyway... waste of breath, you git hung in the end by the way, sorry ;P)
1. Red Herrings = Mass Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (scared, confused peoplez out to be seekin' scapegoats and revenge...)
a. Brave New Economies - Hydrogen/Chicken guts/Vegetable oil/Corn ethanol
b. Cheap Energy For Ever - Fusion, Deep Oil, Solar Bungi Chords in Orbit, etc.
c. Conspiracy Theories - greedy arabs/oil industry, Bush-Halburton, Zionists
d. Gimme Shelter - will people say, "Global Warming? I hope so it's freezing"
e. She Blinded Me With Science - will our newest savior, Science, save us ???
-----------------
5. Effects on industrial civilization of declining oil/gas supplies.
a. Medicine (drugs from building blocks in oil/gas versus produce and purify)
b. Agriculture ( pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, livestock and infrastructure )
c. Common materials (e.g. plastics, synthetic rubber, synthetic anything...)
d. Mining of raw materials (all metals, coal, Tar Pits/shales, nuclear fuels, etc)
e. Transportation (electric vs fuel cell vs oxen - planes, trains and automobiles)
f. Suburbia - how we design homes and cities.
g. Economy - Local vs Centralized, Global Village meet Fractured Fairy Tales
h. Energy Production - the declining ROEI (eg. D batteries - if we "need it," the loss of ROIE will be "worth it", and "damn the bison, build nukes instead") .
g. Civil Unrest - "There will be Riots, riots in the streets, over food and energy , across the nation, a chance for folks to meet...
((Mother I am writing as fast as I possibly can now please stop it and just keep dictating please thanks...))
Quit wasting time. What are You waiting for ?? A singed note from your parents dismissing you from the Grand Illusion they Cobbled together for Us?
Or for the President, Gov'nor or local High Priest or priestess in Local Guberming to "save" or Prepare For You and Your Family ??? I have checked at all levels and I can Assure You They are NOT paying any attention. You probably know as much or more than them by reading this Thread once a week.
This is getting very worrisome to me. It was bad enough the friends and family couldn't "git it" (except fo 1 bro-inlaw)... BUT to see a Group of Highly Educated discuss things as though they live in a Burning Barn and they too think the Farmer has it all under control...
I'm starting to lose my confidence in Homo sap.
""that is just crazy. Im wondering if the masses dont think they can do anything??? ""
1.. I think the Individuals fall back on their own life experience mostly - and in the past 100 years the US Gubermint has been Super Hero to the World (or Super Villian). The just Assume and Expect that the gubermint will come through again some how.
2.. Individuals also feel Overwhelmed - inertia like we felt - not wanting to have to do anything To Disruptive to our Current lives... especially if it is not really necessary for another 5 or 10 years (but I personally think it is CHILDISH and STUPID to try to "time" this Transition at the Personal Level -- Very Very Dangerous Historically. And it's all the more funny because so many people talk about Not trying to "Time" the stock markets but they are willing to Time this most incredible of All Human Historic Events !!!! Duh! --- WHO is the Gambler here? (this is going up as a post for Sailorman and a couple others who gave me crap about the market being a reckless gamble...idiots)
3.. "No One Else" is doing anything really significantly different in their lives (and I am not talking about childish things like turning of lights etc - REAL changes in lifestyle etc is what I mean).
Those are the Main problems I think. Probably too most people are in a Web of Debt so are forced to remain In the System and Dependent on The System as it is.
ALL have an investment here both emotional/mental and physical that they do not want to give up - but which Will Be Taken from them anyway using much Exces force in some cases, by You Mommy Dearest.
Introduction
The energy situation is highly uncertain-for the Army, the Nation,and the world. Now is the time to consider both short and long-termissues to develop enduring energy policies and solutions for our military installations to discern an effective and viable path for the Army's energy future. To sustain its mission and ensure the capability to project and support the forces, the Army must insulate itself from the economic and logistical energy-related problems coming in the near- to mid-future.
Selected excerpts
The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close.
World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply.
The supply of oil will remain fairly stable in the very near term, but oil prices will steadily increase as world production approaches its peak. The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Peak oil is at hand with low availability growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Once worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will result in even more significant price increases and security risks. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.
http://tinyurl.com/ndymd
--------------------
Chinese Strategic Oil Storage Base Nears completion
Eric Watkins
Senior Correspondent
LOS ANGELES, Mar. 7 -- China has largely completed construction of a national strategic oil storage base in Zhenhai in eastern Zhejiang province... Ma gave no exact timetable for the filling of the tanks, apparently due to the high costs of filling them with imported oil.
In June 2005 Zhang Guobao said China would begin filling its reserves by the end of 2005. But he revised that estimate in September, saying that rising prices of imported oil would make it risky for China to start filling its reserves.
Instead, Zhang said, China would "look for other ways to fill energy reserves gradually."
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article_display.cfm?Section=ONART&C=Trasp&ARTICLE_ID=249690& amp;p=7
I wonder how much longer they think they can Afford to Wait to fill those tanks and At what Prices THEN ???
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/ice_sheets.html
This study finds, contrary to other recent reports, that Greenland's ice sheet is growing slightly, rather than shrinking, meaning that it is not adding to sea level rise. Antarctica however is found to be shrinking, and together the two of them are raising sea level, but not by much:
From elevating betting to be the most likely predictor of credibility (ha!) to little deliberate omissions like this, the way you present your information speaks volumes about your agenda, Halfin.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545
Stuart created this chart of sea level rise due to Greenland:
This new report covers the situation up to 2002. As you can see, Greenland alone was supposedly contributing 0.2 to 0.4 mm/year of sea level rise during this period. Yet the new study finds that during that time frame, Greenland was actually not contributing at all to sea level rise, it was accumulating water in the form of ice.
And even when the net loss from the Antarctic is added, it only amounts to 2% of 3 mm/year, which would be 0.06 mm/year, less than 1/3 of what Greenland alone had previously been estimated as adding.
Looking at the abstract of the article in the Journal of Glaciology, the difference in this study is that they took into consideration data on how the ground level was changing under the ice. This gave them a more accurate estimate of the total volume of ice.
I think the real lesson here is that our understanding of what is going on in these regions is still extremely primitive. We can probably expect to see continual revisions and even reversals of previous estimates in years to come.
Vol. 311. no. 5766, pp. 1461 - 1464
A Major Ecosystem Shift in the Northern Bering Sea
Until recently, northern Bering Sea ecosystems were characterized by extensive seasonal sea ice cover, high water column and sediment carbon production, and tight pelagic-benthic coupling of organic production. Here, we show that these ecosystems are shifting away from these characteristics. Changes in biological communities are contemporaneous with shifts in regional atmospheric and hydrographic forcing. In the past decade, geographic displacement of marine mammal population distributions has coincided with a reduction of benthic prey populations, an increase in pelagic fish, a reduction in sea ice, and an increase in air and ocean temperatures. These changes now observed on the shallow shelf of the northern Bering Sea should be expected to affect a much broader portion of the Pacific-influenced sector of the Arctic Ocean.
---
Recent warming in the Arctic has allowed shrubs and the treeline to move northward into regions previously occupied by Arctic tundra (33). As the terrestrial plant type changes, warmer temperatures interact with the land, resulting in more exposure to sunlight and a loss of snow cover, which reduces the albedo effect and provides a positive feedback for continued land warming (34). Similarly, a loss of sea ice reduces surface ocean reflectivity and allows for surface ocean warming, which acts as a positive feedback for continued sea ice melt.
---
I guess the fish now something Halfin doesn't
---
In the same issue, and reported over at EnergyBulletin see
Fusion power: will it ever come?
William E. Parkins, Science (Vol. 311. no. 5766, p. 1380)
http://www.energybulletin.net/13698.html
I guess the fish know something Halfin doesn't
If before, then that gives IRAN that much more power in negotiating...
This is an interesting chess match Mother...
------------------------------------------------------
LaGuardia terminal evacuated; departures halted
Man disappears after being singled out for security screening
Friday, March 10, 2006; Posted: 5:52 p.m. EST (22:52 GMT)
NEW YORK (CNN) -- The Delta terminal at LaGuardia Airport in New York City was evacuated for about two hours Friday after a man whose shoes provided an initial positive alert for explosives left the screening area, the Transportation Security Administration said.
Authorities gave no indication whether the man had been found...."
http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/03/10/airport.evacuation/index.html
But who knows. Maybe he didn't Look Moozlim enough to be picked out of the crowd. Or didn't smell Muslim enough to be sniffed out of a crowd, as the case may be.
Iran 'going wild' with accelerated missile program
LONDON -- Iran has launched a missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers.
Western intelligence sources said the Iranian Defense Ministry presided over the launch of an intermediate-range missile in January 2006. The launch was the first of what they termed a Shihab-4 ballistic missile based on a Soviet-origin platform.
Iran's Shihab-3 missile.
The missile was fired and reached a distance of nearly 3,000 kilometers.
The missile was destroyed in mid-flight, but the trajectory indicated that the projectile could have reached 4,000 kilometers.
"It looks like the test was meant to see if the separation and guidance systems were working," an intelligence source said.
Iran has accelerated programs to develop a range of strategic and tactical missiles and rockets, the sources said. The acceleration was first detected in January 2006 as the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency decided to refer the Iranian nuclear file to the UN Security Council.
"The Iranians are showing the West, 'Look, what we could do,'" another intelligence source said. "They are going wild."
Meanwhile, the Iranian opposition reported that Teheran has begun serial production of its Shihab-3 missile. Over the past year the Defense Ministry has achieved a production rate of 90 missiles per year.
Until 2004, the opposition said, Iran produced 15 to 20 Shihab-3 missiles per year. Production was limited as the Defense Ministry sought to improve the range and accuracy of the missiles.
But during the past 18 months Iran achieved a breakthrough in the Shihab-3, designed to carry a nuclear warhead.
The Shihab-4 is a multiple-stage missile based on Soviet ballistic missiles of the 1960s. Iran, with help from China and North Korea, was believed to have reverse-engineered the Soviet missile.
On Feb. 28, U.S. intelligence chiefs told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Iran has been developing ballistic missiles capable of striking central Europe. Iran also maintains offensive chemical and biological weapons capabilities in various stages of development.
"The integration of nuclear weapons into Iran's ballistic systems would be destabilizing beyond the Middle East," said John Negroponte, director of national intelligence.
Earlier, the German news agency DDP reported that Iran conducted four missile tests in 2006. DDP, quoting Western intelligence sources, said Iran tested an enhanced intermediate-range ballistic missile, surface-to-air missile, cruise missile and anti-tank missile.
In 2005, Iran reportedly completed tests that extended the Shihab-3 from 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers. The improvement was based on Chinese technology and components.
DDP said the surface-to-air missile test was that of an unidentified Russian system. The news agency said it was probably a variant of the S-300PMU system, designed to intercept both air and missile targets.
Iran was also said to have tested a cruise missile in 2006. DDP said the system marked an Iranian variant of the Chinese HY-2 Silkworm missile.
DDP said the Silkworm reached a range of 150 kilometers during the test. This would allow the Silkworm to strike targets throughout Gulf Cooperation Council states.
Iran has sought to further enhance the Silkworm-class cruise missile.
DDP said Iran has sought to acquire advanced engine components from Germany and Switzerland. The engine components would be bought by front companies in Europe, shipped to Dubai's free trade zone in the United Arab Emirates, and then transferred to Iran.
The ministry was said to have extended the range of the Shihab-3 from 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers and installed a new navigation and guidance system that significantly reduced the circle of error probability.
Alireza Jafarzadeh, director of the Washington-based Strategic Policy Consulting, said Iran now produces 90 enhanced Shihab-3 missiles per year.
Jafarzadeh, the former head of the Iranian opposition, said the missile could reach a distance of 1,900 kilometers.
Iranian missile development and production has been aided by such countries as China, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia. Jafarzadeh said North Korea has been assisting Iran in completing two intermediate-range prototype missiles.
The latest missiles were identified as the Ghadar-101 and Ghadar-110 missiles, with range of up to 3,000 kilometers. Jafarzadeh said Ghadar could be launched within 30 minutes compared to about eight hours for the Shihab-3.
Western intelligence sources said Iran test-fired a prototype intermediate-range missile in January 2006. The missile, based on a 1960s Soviet platform, reached a distance of 3,000 kilometers and was believed capable of a range of 4,500 kilometers.
On March 6, the National Council of Resistance in Iran told a news conference in London that Ghadar had a range of up to 3,000 kilometers.
Iranian opposition spokespeople said the Ghadar was not based on either North Korean or Russian designs.
Financially, the American consumer is standing at a four way intersection with speeding 18 wheelers headed at him from four directions: higher food & energy costs; higher health care costs; higher interest rates and higher taxes (especially property taxes). No wonder we went down to a negative savings rate last year for the first time since the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, Yergin, Huber and their ilk tell everyone not to worry. Huber in fact tells everyone to increase their energy consumption.
I suggest that you start arranging your life so that you can live on half of your current income and start arranging your life so that you can substantially get by without a car. (As soon as my office lease is up, I am moving my office to my house, or my house to the vicinity of my office).