DrumBeat: July 20, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 20, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
I'm out in the field and away from the computer this morning, but I wanted to post this before I go (free registration required):
Saudi Arabia's oil a huge question
The Saudis say they are still committed to affordable, stable petroleum. But prices have roughly tripled in four years despite periodic Saudi announcements of plans to pump up production.Control, it seems, has slipped away.
So when the Saudis a few weeks ago suddenly reversed field and announced a production cut, some analysts scratched their heads and wondered if, at long last, Saudi Arabian oil production has peaked. If it has, the effect is potentially huge on oil markets and the price of gasoline at the pump.
North Sea oil faces 'dark times'
Oil companies in the UK are being left behind by international competition, according to an industry annual report.The UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) claimed that record prices could not offset rises in costs for exploration and recovery.
Mexican crude oil exports, output slip in June
India will start building its first strategic crude oil storage facility in January at Vizag in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, a senior government official was quoted by the Wall Street Journal Asian edition as saying.YUKOS CEO quits before "sham" meeting
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The American chief executive of fallen Russian oil major YUKOS (YUKO.MM) has tendered his resignation before a meeting of creditors on Thursday that is expected to take the company a step closer to bankruptcy.
High temperatures may spark power emergency
SACRAMENTO -- Five years after a massive energy crisis roiled California, the state has added capacity to power nearly 6 million more households -- but it's still barely enough.With soaring temperatures baking California this week, the state is struggling to meet record demand for electricity and is once again on the verge of a first-stage power emergency.
While the situation is far better than the rolling blackouts that rocked the state in 2000-01, California utilities and state officials remain concerned by the ever-increasing demand driven not only by population growth, but lifestyle changes and booming development in warmer inland regions.
France imports power in heatwave
French firm EDF had to purchase 2,000 megawatt hours of electricity from abroad to make up for its shortfall.Meanwhile Britain turned to expensive oil-fired stations to meet demand but said enough supplies were available.
China to face energy security crisis by 2010
U.K.: CBI chief warns of looming energy crisis
China May Reopen Deep-Sea Oil Hunt
A major gas discovery deep under the South China Sea could reopen a frontier for oil and gas exploration that some multinational companies abandoned decades ago after shallower wells turned up dry, said the chairman of Cnooc Ltd., China's biggest offshore oil producer.
The U.S. Energy Department's fuel-recycling initiative could be a distraction from a more achievable goal: reviving today's nuclear industry and averting some carbon emissions in the short term.
Tom Whipple writes about the media and peak oil:
The Wall Street Journal's treatment of peak oil is the complete opposite. They don't want to even think about it. They would rather read that a giant meteor is heading for the earth and it will all be over next week than to contemplate the possibility that the GDP just might stop growing because there is no longer enough oil.
Goldman Sachs: Rising Biofuel Use to Drive Up Crop Prices
Peak oil not piquing the interest of CVRD board
An inconvenient hill. A house in the lowlands is great if you plan to lug 300 pounds of manure home on a bike trailer. It's not so great if global warming causes the oceans to rise.
Also note that while the Russians are claiming higher oil production (I have my doubts since they were pushing the IPO), they are admitting to declines in net oil exports.
I predict successive rounds of bidding for declining net oil export capacity, and I continue to predict that net oil export capacity will fall faster than total world oil production.
Annualize these numbers and it gets really scary-- 660,000 bpd drop in oil exports, or about one-third of total exports to the US. Combined with continuing troubles in GOM, and on shore depletion in the US, and we suddenly have to replace between 5 and 8% of our total consumption from other sources. Not even the new expansion at Syncrude is going to dent this.
Ouch.
Outgoing Mexican Presidente' Vicente Fox calls for runoff election to help calm the situation and establish a voting majority. I am still looking to find additional confirmation from other newsources, as I have never heard of this link before [SperoNews], but I am just trying to keep us TODers up to date on what is increasingly become a polarized country.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for responding. I think the American organizations should send some of those statisticians that analyzed the Florida[2000] & Ohio[2004] votes down Mexico way to help physicist Luis Mochán of UNAM complete his voting analysis to help resolve the Mexican Standoff.
Even better--send Stuart Staniford's and Khebab's resumes' down South. I bet the Mexican Election Board [IFE] would hire these guys for huge $$$$ to do their wonderful data freak computational analysis on the Mexican vote.
The more I look at the statistical graphs of the election-->the more I think something is rotten: but I am no expert. Hopefully, Freddy, Dave, DuncanK, and other TODers will comment on these disturbing graphs.
Top link excerpts:
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Doing maths in Mexico
While Mexicans take to the streets over the presidential vote, democracy's fairweather friends are standing silent.
Yet the stalwarts of democracy outside Mexico are silent. Bush has congratulated Calderón, not waiting for the court to rule. Reuters and Bloomberg echo the confidence of the elites that Calderón will win in court - never mind whether he won at the polls. When The New York Times is heard from, the headlines tell us of the "leftist claims" about the occurrence of fraud, while Calderón is described as "presidential." The Times never doubted that fraud did occur in Ukraine. In Mexico on the other hand, it seemingly renounces any duty to examine the facts on the ground.
Here's one difference between the two situations. In Ukraine, it was extremely hard to learn exactly what the evidence of fraudulence actually was. In Mexico, it is extremely easy. That is because the Mexican electoral authority, known as IFE, posted the ongoing count on its website in real time, an initiative called PREP. Independent scholars kept a record of PREP as the night progressed. A statistical analysis of that record does not, of course, constitute proof. But it brings to mind Henry David Thoreau's remark that circumstantial evidence can be very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk.
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Arizona is obviously on the front lines with Mexico. If this election goes really bad, we will be swamped with refugees.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
By the way! I quit watching TV for the past 6 six weeks, and guess what?
I don't miss it. ocassionally i'll walk past one and see a snippet here and there, i noticed CNN, MSNBC and FOX can flog a dead horse forever. GEEZ, i find other things to do. Though i have enjoyed the history channel and national geographic channel on the variety of topics, i do not miss TV at all.
I could go on a long time about how pleasant it is not to see or hear main stream media or reality shows. GEEZ!
If you limit the HL method to regions that have produced about 2 mbpd for 20 years or so, I am not aware of any case histories where the HL method failed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aCi3NokxCtys&refer=exclusive_to_bloomber g
Shell Slips on Sakhalin Ice, Costs in Fight to Boost Reserves
I took that historical chart, converted it to a CSV file, then plotted the 5 years surrounding the peak. The graph below is what I got. It shows that things were very noisy then and that we had a situation very much like the last 24 months, some months up, some down, but no real clear trend til a few years had passed.
Click on the image to see it full sized. I didn't want the graph to blow up the entire page formatting. I've saved the image at flickr. Hopefully I've got the URL right for others to see it.
Can't Stop Guzzling: Rising prices are supposed to curtail consumption. So why doesn't that hold true for American drivers?
Great...but what happens if his company has to cut back and doesn't give him a bonus?
CNN had a segment yesterday about how people are dealing with high gas prices. A lot of them are doing what Mr. Parker is doing, and putting it on their credit cards. Gotta wonder how sustainable that is...
Here's another article from the NYTimes, not quite as "bullish" as the BusinessWeek article regarding fuel consumption:
Reluctantly Adjusting to Oil Cost
You're either with them or against them. Welcome to the New American Century.
I do the math about the same except that if this character is doimg 50,000 miles a year between Manhattan and Norwalk he is not averaging 50mph. He is in his XTerra 1500 or 2000 hours a year, That's why he drives around in his living room. He lives there
"Why the resilience? After all, when prices of most things rise, people buy less. You would think they would react to costlier gasoline by gradually making such adjustments as carpooling, switching to more fuel-efficient vehicles, or even getting a job closer to home. To an extent, they do. Energy Dept. economists say gasoline consumption, driven by an expanding population and economy, would be even higher today if prices hadn't risen."
Higher prices do restrain demand. In this case, the downward price pressure on demand was overwhelmed by the upward pressure on demand from an increasing population and economic growth.
Here's a rare free Wall Street Journal article:
States Boost Speed Limits On Major Highways: Moves Come Despite Concerns Over Safety, High Gas Prices; 80 Miles Per Hour in Texas
These items -- houses, office and commercial buildings, cars -- are big capital investments, and are not easily or frequently replaced. Folks may be inclined to go into debt to hold on to a lifestyle in the hopes that the current high gas prices will pass. If one relies on the MSM for news, one could get the impression that the high oil prices will pass, and everything will go back to "normal".
Fuel cost him maybe $450 for his 800 miles.. didn't bat an eyelash.
It's not just all the average folks in 'developed' countries who will get priced out as he drives the palace on wheels around at $5 or $6 a gallon. It is a whole bunch of 'developing' world farmers and businesses that can barely afford to operate now. "let them find more labor intensive sustainable methods and ride bicycles" we say, not realizing we are talking about us pretty soon.
It seems we tax the heck out of cigarettes and booze. I believe the rates are higher than on gasoline and diesel. Seems like we could come up with a fair way to target over-consumption of FF. Our singular addiction.
Very problematic, I know, but I'll take a crack at it. We now ration by price and the price rises because some individuals have lots of money and can afford all they want.
Good let them have it. Only add on the carbon reduction tax. Subsidize wind, rail, and solar with it.
Allow every tax paying wage earner filing their own taxes a standard deduction equal to the equivalent tax based on a moderate amount of liquid FF. Enough to get most folks that commute and some to spare in an economy car. Buy an electric car or a hybrid.. keep the deduction. Ride a bike ..keep the deduction. Don't drive ever ...and so on.
I know. What do we do about businesses. What about the unemployed? Well...?
We've kicked this around before but we it seems it can't work because it's 'regressive' or encouages people to have more kids or something. For Peat's sake let's figure out a way to put some of that 'waste' to work.
Well if their money can't buy services from the 'we' without oil... that would put an end to their lifestyle, right?
Now how many of you opted to not work for someone because they had too much money and were willing to overpay you for your labor?
I don't really see much future in roads and highways ...
I feel like someone who has been warned about a coming tsunami - the water has receded and I'm moving to higher ground, but most people don't believe it and are out wandering on the newly revealed beach. I don't know if I'll make it to higher ground in time or not, but I can guess what will happen to them. Meanwhile we talk about how to stop the tsunami, but I'm thinking it's unlikely that any of it will happen.
How do we prevent the wealthy from screwing us over? We don't. It's how things are. Democracy was a good try, but it is failing - destroyed by the wealthy and power hungry, as these things meant more to them than the society, and the people allowed them to get away with it.
Twilight,
Me thinks you are confusing terms.
"Democracy" simply means rule by all the people themselves.
What you complain of is actually the Smithian Religion.
When we are young, we are taught many religions.
One of them is to get a high paying job.
To be a success.
To be a millionaire.
To take care only of ones self.
To maximize profits.
The Invisible Hand will take care of everything else.
So what do you see?
Millions of people following that programming.
They are doing as they were programmed to do. What more should we expect?