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DrumBeat: July 21, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 21, 2006 - 9:40am
Topic: Miscellaneous
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The August Harper's cover story is about peak oil. It's not available online, but from what people are saying, it's not bad. Written by Bryant Urstadt, it's called "Imagine There's No Oil: Scenes from a liberal apocalypse."
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Julian Darley wants A new kind of money
The decline in the availability of cheap energy is likely to be accompanied by an equally ominous possibility of world financial meltdown. That we are facing both of these threats now is not an accident: energy and financial stability are intimately linked. I believe the solutions for dealing with these twinned threats are equally linked. To build an environmentally sustainable, monetarily stable world, we need to create an economy in which locally produced energy provides the backing for local currencies.
Greenland opening Arctic sea to oil wells: Energy giants gather to discuss, Greenpeace calls idea 'insane.'
China oil production rises 2 percent
China to need more jumbo oil tankers over next five years
Drivers' love of the road grows costly
In St. Louis, the Governor sent the sent the National Guard to evacuate residents from their sweltering homes. With electricity down due to heavy storms, it was feared that people would die in the 100F temps.
In New York, thousands are without power due to mysterious grid failure.
Hyundai breakthrough in fuel cell technology
[Update by Leanan on 07/21/06 at 3:08 PM EDT]
Valero expects to lose 1.3 million barrels in lost-refining capacity
Valero Energy Corp. has shut down the company's fluid catalytic cracking unit at its St. Charles refinery in Louisiana for needed repairs.Valero spokeswoman Mary Rose Brown says the repairs should take 20 days to complete.
This will result in a loss of gasoline production of 65,000 barrels per day or 1.3 million barrels. Refinery officials do not expect a material impact to the 250,000-barrel-per-day facility's distillate production. Distillates include jet fuel and diesel.
http://www.energybulletin.net/18445.html
Of Oilsands and Caviar and Malthus (PDF)
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/07-2006.pdf
Eric Sprott and Sasha Solunac, Sprott Asset Management
Summary:
...we were shocked two week ago when Shell Canada and Western Oil Sands announced that the price tag of their Athabasca oilsands expansion won't be $7.3 billion (Canadian dollars) as initially projected, but rather $11 billion - or 50% higher! If that's not inflation folks, then we don't know what is. This isn't the first, and we doubt it will be the last, cost increase that we'll hear about in the oilsands. Costs there are a continually moving upward target.
Announcements like this make it most obvious that the era of cheap oil is clearly over, especially when it costs so much for the world to get that incremental barrel of oil production, especially from heretofore unconventional sources. Remember that the oilsands were supposed to be the great saviour of the world's energy problems. It would appear that this purveyor of abundant energy is on its way to ignominity due to spiraling costs.
As unfortunate as that announcement was for oilsands producers, this article isn't about the oilsands. More interesting is what it implies for the cost of all things going forward. To wit, this article will be a general discussion on two inter-rated principles, or perhaps more accurately, two inter-related perils.
One is cost-push inflation, and the other is Malthusian theory. As we've already said, we found the oilsands announcement to be shocking - so much so that it effectively changed the landscape. Not only is it highly inflationary, but we fear that it is the kind of inflation that threatens to pervade absolutely everything. It is difficult to envision a scenario where the cost of energy soars without impacting the cost of all things, whether good or service. Just about everything we do comes from or relies on energy.
(July 2006)
From an investment firm that's peak oil conscious.
Investment Implications of Abrupt Climate Change
that the power outage in this area has affected a nearby refinery. Radio reports yesterdy were asking people not
to panic and "rush out to topoff there tanks".
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/metroeast/story/5931607E4094FF4B862571B10078B99D?O penDocument&highlight=2%2C%22refinery%22
Cheers,
RR
Since there are no pipelines from there to my STL side, I'm not too worried.
How about power outages caused by people stealing the oil from electrical transformers? This is really getting oil the most dangerous way possible!
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The company was forced to buy new transformers to replace those burnt down.
Once oil is drained from a transformer, it overheats, and if power is not switched off on time, the transformer explodes and cannot be repaired for future use.
The above mentioned losses only include replacement of transformers, but does not include the loss of revenue incurred by the Company for the inability to sell electricity units to consumers.
The loss does not also include many hours lost in tackling the theft. There are reports that 40 per cent of the power supplied to India's capital of New Delhi disappears through "transmission losses" meaning it is consumed without being paid for. It is stolen.
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I predicted some time ago that detrito-terrorists will add positive feedback greatly to Tainterian collapse. The path to Olduvai Gorge gains more people everyday.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
If you are going to steal electricity, stealing an extra electrical meter is a pretty clever way to do it. I would imagine the Tanzanians use their regular meter for 3 weeks, then switch to the stolen unit for the week prior to when the utility company meter-reader arrives to determine the monthly billing. After he/she leaves, then switch back to the original unit for more free juice [this process only takes a few minutes to accomplish due to snap-in, snap-out design]. A unique theft tactic if you ask me!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
There is a gizmo you can make that requires only 1 low power connection before the meter and 2 after it [ie any domestic wall socket]. It will subtract x kilowatts from the meter measurement, where x depends on the internal construction.
I met a guy who used to hire them out for a few weeks before meter readings..
At one time, I believe you could drive round gas meters with a vacumn cleaner after they were removed.
Then again, our water is unmetered, so just run a generator from the tap.
All ranked up there with treason, if you get caught.
So I got the thinking. Downtown there is a concert, Live on the Levee, it's going on as planned. That's going to drain the power, and its shutting down eads bridge, aptly renamed eats bridge for the concert. So transportation flow takes a hit for "economic gain." Its a contractual agreement that they go on with the restaurants. I wonder what kind of financial hardships that could arise from insurance being hit for a lot of cancelled events due to lack of "ingredients?" What do you think?
Not sure if I understand your question: "I wonder what kind of financial hardships that could arise from insurance being hit for a lot of cancelled events due to lack of "ingredients?"
My guess is a lot of future events will never get off the ground because people won't be able to afford to travel to them, much less spend money on the food and trinkets, excluding local neighborhood 'potluck' parties.
The ins cos. that refused to write hurricane and flood coverage along the East Coast are so far looking profitably vindicated [these cos. could care less if your uninsured property got flooded]. Tropical Storm Beryl could have spun up further into real bad news, and the season is still young.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
That's not it. The media is not really reporting anything. I just was a story on CNN, and they talked about the storm and all of the damage, but didn't mention the refinery. That is a very big refinery, and as spooky as the markets have been I would have assumed it would have gotten a mention.
You have to realize that sometimes I may have some information that has not been released to the public, and I could lose my job if I am the one who releases it. When news is released, I can comment on it.
Cheers,
RR
P.S. To "tate123" above: This refinery is a major supplier of fuel into STL.
Cheers,
RR
================Im in st.louis and my aunt is a manager at a local mobil gas station, and she said they are down to about 600 gallons of gas and they told her there wont be any more coming very soon. So I went and filled up all three of my cars / work vans.
To RR's comment above: I too, am puzzled as to why this is not getting more attention in MSM.
http://www.theindependent.com/stories/072106/new_diesel21.shtml
I would. In fact, I can offer a standing piece of advice. Any time a large refinery goes down in your area, fill up your tank IMMEDIATELY. A couple of things can happen when a big refinery goes down. It will remove a large amount of supply in the local area, and unless the refinery comes right back up, supplies can be drained. Prices will come up to stem demand, so the faster you react the better. If the refinery is down for more than a few days, supplies will start to come in from other areas, but you are going to pay a higher price. (That's one reason prices went up nationwide after Katrina; supplies were diverted to the gulf).
After Hurricane Katrina hit, I knew pretty quickly about the extent of the damage. I had direct knowledge of one refinery down there, had an early warning on the Mars platform, and knew that supply was going to be knocked out for a long time. I called my friends and family in Texas and Oklahoma right after the hurricane and advised them to fill up all of their vehicles and any gas cans they could scrounge up. Gas prices at the time were around $2.20 a gallon, but I warned that they could go up to $3.00 in just a few days. That is just what happened.
This is what I mean when I say sometimes I have information I can't share. I had an early warning on these things, but that warning came as a result of my employment. I can't share those pieces of information in a public forum. Assume that I issued a warning here at TOD about supplies in the wake of Katrina. I would have been guilty of helping cause a panic and a run on supplies. Even though that happened anyway, it's best for me that my company doesn't come back and ask why I had a hand in it.
Cheers,
RR
Since I need to fill up otherwise every 2.5 months or so, I can wait (I average 6 gallons/month).
The New Orleans Metro area refines perhaps 10 times what we use locally, with more refineries nearby. Any local reduction can be spread over a much larger area by reducing shipments out.
As Saudi depletion kicks in, I do not expect gas lines in Riyadh.
Just a coincidence. No time to get to library and a stash of 'must read' old paperbacks.
Me? I'm rereading Jim Bouton's "Ball Four" and laughing so hard that I just about fall out of the chair.
Also, I'm working on my knuckle ball again.
Got it yesterday via amazon among some other books, and read the first two chapters. Leeb was inspired by Diamonds "Collapse" & Tainters "Collapse of Complex Civilizations"
He reasoned that these two had all the data and the facts to support the position that most are not in. He then goes on to explain a little background on PO, enough to really scare you. I'll check back in to let you know how it is.
Late Graduation Present from a family friend of mine. I've only touched on the first few pages. Damned 50 hour work week.
(Usually I read only 1,500-2,000 w.p.m.)
But seriously, you reading speed is bionic. I once purchased a book on speed reading. it was a slow read!
It taught you how to move your eyes etc. Was a good book
if you needed to learn how to digest HUGE amounts of information quickly and efficienly eg for research.
However when i read novels for example, I (like most other people I am sure) start to see in picture and subconsciously forget tat i'm digesting words. So if my enjoyment is being 'inside' that book i would rather prolong that experience, especially if the book was good.
That is to say taking my time and reading slowly ADDS to the enjoyment; therefore, [for me] no benefit in speed reading is gained!. Interesting though. I digress! Peak Oil.
Marco
Last time I was tested on advanced economics journal papers, I got 99.7% comprehension at 2,500 words per minute.
My sister can also read very fast with excellent comprehension, and hence I suspect there is a genetic component. My father was a slow reader because he was always underlining and filling the margins with very tiny writing in both blue and red pencil. I think my mother could read very fast, but because she so enjoyed reading, she rarely did so.
-C.
-C.
I used to write and mostly revise self-defense manuals for certain organizations you have heard of. If you live in N.O., you need this knowledge. By the way, it is mostly about dividing your attention: Most effectiveness in combat is based on habits and mental/emotional focus plus training and nasty experiences that one survives.
As a civilian I strongly recommend that you not carry a gun. In the Big Easy, I'd carry a half-full-of-water champagne bottle in a brown paper bag every where I went. That is a far, far more effective deterrant than all the expensive crap that the phonie-balonies want to sell you at inflated prices.
If "Looking out for #1" survival post-Peak Oil was my highest priority, I would take a completely different course for living my life. I have mentally mapped precisely what needs to be done for the 5 to 7 years before TSHFT for myself and less precisely, for a longer period, for society.
I have chosen my path and it is not a path that minimizes risk for #1. My chosen path does maximize good food & music with friendship and social connections and a deep profound joy.
The coward dies a thousand deaths, the brave man but once.
I appreciate your courage. Speaking as one who is a lot older than you and has gotten bloody more than once, I do fear for your saftey. We cannot AFFORD to lose you.
Are they still producing Herbsaint in your city? If so, I'd like to send you a bottle. For drinking, that is.