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DrumBeat: August 10, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 10, 2006 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
[Update by Leanan on 08/10/06 at 10:18 AM EDT]
Gas Prices Alter Habits of Many, but Far From All
Car owners across the country braced themselves on Tuesday for another smack in the face at the gasoline pump, as the shutdown of the giant Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska rippled through energy markets and consumer psyches.But Justin Ogle, a newly minted light-rail commuter, was calm. Mr. Ogle and his wife, Lauren, bought a new home two months ago, partly to be near the train tracks.
Consumers May Pay as Businesses Feel Pinch at Pump
As oil prices climb, the U.S. economy has become the arena for a tug of war over inflation.
MSU professor quietly creates one of nation's largest databases for wind energy research
BP's Prudhoe Bay a "giant water field"
"Really, we are a giant water field," said Bill Hedges, BP PLC's corrosion expert, explaining that what comes up now during drilling is three-quarters water.
[Update by Leanan on 08/10/06 at 11:24 AM EDT]
Saudi Oil: Far from Twilight
Michael Lynch isn't worried...
With the recent problems in the oil market, renewed attention has been focused on the theories of M. King Hubbert and a new generation of oil supply modelers, who believe that geological resources are scarce and a peak in global oil production is near. In fact, these analysts – usually geologists – are unfamiliar with statistical modeling and don’t recognize that they are engaged in curve fitting, not scientific analysis. The repeated failures of their predictions and their refusal to address substantive criticisms of their theories and methods are damning indictments of their claim to be scientific.
Meanwhile, Matt Simmons is proselytizing even on summer vacation in Maine: Energy Expert Warns Of Tough Times Ahead.
Which countries are in the top 10 exporting countries?
Thanks in advance,
Rick
http://www.energybulletin.net/18475.html
Rick
Of course, listening to Canadian leaders lately, one could be excused if they were led to think otherwise.
Our prime minister recently talked up the nation as a new "emerging enery superpower".
Who knows, someday we may overtake tiny Qatar!
Do oil sands not count?
BP's 2005 numbers for Canadian production and consumption basically match these. BP gives 1.6 mmbpd exports in 2005 - matching that figure you found of 1.8 mmbpd in 2006.
Houston, we have a problem. The only explanation I can come up with is that they are receiving imports of approximately 800,000 bpd from the US. Didn't Westexas say that was the case above somewhere?
Anybody know?
Production - 3.047
Consumption - 2.241
Difference is 806, not far off the 841 figure.
But Canada imports 934 mmbpd (not counting product imports), mainly from Europe. Added to the 806, that gives 1.74 mmbpd as exports. This is intermediate between the two figures above.
Now for extra credit, can you explain why? When you say Europe, I'm guessing that's mainly the North Sea? or Russia?
Refining ability? To send the product to the States?
Product exports Canada->US in 2005 were 558 mbpd on top of the 1643 mbpd crude exports, according to BP. Sorry about the units mixup above.
What are you, crazy:) How was I supposed to remember that? I didn't even know it to remember it. Seriously. You should post more often here. We really, really like this kind of information. At least I do. Screw up the units all you want, we'll fix'em later.
Why can't Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces get their stuff via pipeline from Western Canada? That's the part I'm unclear about. It really makes more sense to ship crude from Europe rather than pipe it from next door?
Is it possible to make this equation more efficient?
New Orleans would like to barge more oil products up-river instead though.
We complain about transparency. It is time to clean up our own back yard.
Canada - (and my beef is not with Canada, it is with us) - Canada exports 840,000 bpd, not 1,840,000. Or, conversely, it does both. But we need a standard for reporting these numbers. Else the manipulators will run circles around us. They will use any number they want, whenever it suits their purposes.
Are we on the same team?
http://energikrise.blogspot.com/2006/07/produsenter-og-eksportrer-av.html
leads to a Norwegian blog that recently posted some diagrams (in English) that shows the worlds 10 biggest producers of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) as of 2005 baseed upon BP Statistical Review 2006.
the second diagram shows the world 7 top net exporters of hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas)
Hope it can be of some help.
Breakdown by US destination also available:
http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/Statistics/CrudeOil_PetroleumProducts/index_e.htm#Year2005
I stacked the countries to make the graph readable, obviously they are not in order, but you should be able to figure out the top 14. I have to update this for 2004 numbers(maybe 2005, I forget what is currently available). I might actually get around to this today, in which case, I'll list the actual numbers.
still rising if I'm reading your
graph correctly ??
Triffin ..
The percentages for the last 6 years on record:
1998- 54.1%
1999- 53.4%
2000- 54.1%
2001- 53.6%
2002- 52.3%
2003- 53.5%
2004- 54.4%
So it looks like net export capacity is currently on a plateau if you look at last 6 years, rising if you use last 3.
Keep in mind the last data is for 2004, 20 months old. If it has been falling since that point, it is unlikely that it is lower than 52%.
How many of those lines cross? Hence no exports.
JC
See?
Most people are not aware that countries that produce oil actually use it themselves. (As stupid as that sounds, I believe it to be true).
John
The top 17 exporters ratios are relatively stable. The remaining 20 have changed over the last twenty years, but mostly in order. If I did a line-graph like this I think it would just look like spaghetti.
I'll play with the numbers later and see if I can come up with something.
http://energikrise.blogspot.com/2006/06/utvikling-i-global-netto-oljeeksport.html
illustrating (diagram clickable for larger view) the development in net oil exports, by country, for the years 1985 - 2005 based upon BP Statistical Review 2006. Seems like net oil exports has seen little growth since 2003.
Hope it is useful.
How feasible is second generation Biomass production of Ethanol ? I am interested because apparently Iogen uses ANY source of cellulose to produce ethanol. This would remove a lot of the energy sinks from the production process. The process itself appears to run on heat generated from burning what's left over after extracting the cellulose from biomass.
This would make the EROEI equation very possitive. Do you think they have a posible solution, is enough usable biomass available (near potential factories) to produce a significant amount of ethanol?
This is about diesel, though, but it should give you an idea.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad/imagery_archive/highlights/2005/01/btl0104/syntheticdiesel.htm
I had a look at Choren's homepage, they say they need 4 tons of biomass to make 1 ton of sundiesel, and that one hectare can produce 3-6 tons of sundiesel. So, a 13.000t plant needs 50.000t of biomass, not 50.000ha.
I'm wondering if anyone can find information on storage costs for ethanol in Brazil the numbers seem hard to find since Petrobas seems to underwrite the storage costs. Running the number shows that we would need millions if not billions of gallons of storage if we use significant quantities of ethanol.
I know that storage or tank farm can be expensive for oil I don't expect the costs to be cheap for ethanol and the numbers are mind numbing they make the SPR look little.
Mike
In answer to your second question... Yes, there is more than enough biomass and renewable waste resources to make a considerable dent in daily gasoline consumption.
Are Californians are going to have to have their dead fingers pried off their SUV's steering wheel? Good Article!
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"People haven't paid for the gas they bought two years ago," he said. Hamilton says that when, not if, an oil refinery catches fire in the West and crimps already tight gas supplies, California could see per-gallon prices jump to between $4 and $5 a gallon in a matter of weeks.
"If there is a problem at a big refinery, there is no limit to the price at the pump," Hamilton said. "The question is at what stage in the game does the nozzle get so hot that people drop it?"
---------------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx, Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Besides, who wants to deal with car salesmen if you don't have to!?
Besides, I don't want to trade in my 17mpg vehicle for a 25mpg vehicle. I'm waiting for the whole industry to ramp up towards 40mpg. I want something sleek and sporty that still gets great mileage.
http://odograph.com/?p=332
Unfortunately, for the weight and cargo capacity of an American "midsize" I think things like the Prius are already pretty close to the edge. I don't think there is that much more recoverable energy in the liquid fuel. That's why the big trend is in plug-in hybrids and pulling energy from another source.
=======4 seconds
(Time from 0 to 60 mph)
Tesla Roadster: $89,000
4 seconds
Ferrari F430 Spider: $188,000
Under 5 seconds*
Subaru Impreza WRX STi: $32,995
5.4 seconds
Mercedes-Benz SL550: $94,800
5.4 seconds
BMW 750i sedan: $75,800
Under 9 seconds
Toyota Camry hybrid: $26,480
* Actual specification was 0 to 62 mph in 4.8 seconds
Sources: Tesla Motors;
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/09/MNGSSKDMBT1.DTL&hw=tesla&sn=001& amp;sc=1000
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/08/tesla_motors_ev.php
Very sharp looking. That's exactly what I'm looking for. Even 50 or 60mpg would be great. I take the train to work, so I'm just looking for something fun for the weekends.
Someone needs to come out with something that's US Street legal.
http://www.uscaterham.com/
There are engine and suspension options. It might be interesting to try for a fuel-sipping option.
Here in California a very limited number of custom cars are allowed licenses each year. IMO it a fool's risk to buy the car and then hope for the license. On the other hand, there are some cars on the market with licenses. There are even some of the old original Lotus Super Sevens out there.
1988 Honda CRX Si, 105 horsepower, 5 speed, generally get 37mpg mixed usage 40+ extended highway...known to put cars with 3 times the horsepower to shame (tire smoke does not equal acceleration). Acceleration in 1st and 2nd gears excellent, large dropoff into 3rd...handling excellent and predictable. Fun factor 10.
They existed. You may have to wait a while (if not forever) for something new.
Think about it. Keeping a paid off vehicle, even if it consumes more gasoline, is a better deal than paying for a newer, higher mileage vehicle. We save the up-front expenses, keep a vehicle out of the scrap yard, reduce demand for more vehicles including all the resources consumed in making that new vehicle, and keep human mechanics in demand. Not bad really.
Combined with a little conservation keeping the paid for vehicle is better for us and the environment.
What do you think?
Or something cool like an old BMW - the old 3's get good mileage, and while they are a bit high maintenance, the user group around BMWs is amazing, I don't know of a better "support group" of users for any other car.
Any car will get better mileage if you featherfoot it, think in terms of "flow" like everyone used to before the automatic transmission.
I'm glad I get 25mpg despite using A/C and driving like the latter. (as much as the little engine allows) An mpg gauge would be great driver feedback to reduce those "fighter jock" tendencies that lots of people have. One change I'm doing is to move 5 miles closer to work, so I'll burn a fifth of gas less each way. I burn 3 fifth each way now, so I'll use only 2/3 of the fuel now.
Like the cover story, I switched to driving after being fed up with shoddy suburban transit. What'll be fun to watch is how long range commuters try to adapt. I already saw early signs of that demand destruction in my workplace.
http://www.thinkgeek.com/gadgets/electronic/8426/
I own a 1999 4 cylinder Mazda 626 (referred to by the dealer as a legacy car). It gets a solid 30 miles to the gallon. On the Interstate at 60 I average 35. I am ready for peak oil; bring it on.
Maybe those folks are passing on 3 mile runs to the market, but unable to change the big work (and social) commitments.
A tentative explanation :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Stanley_Jevons
Call me picky.
Call me pickier.
http://www.englishrules.com/writing/2005/possessive-form-of-singular-nouns-ending-with-s.php
8/10/06 WSJ Article: "Feeling the Pain of Rising Rates"
Excerpt:
Some California brokers say they are beginning to see a return of "short sales"--transactons in which the sales price isn't large enough to cover outstanding loans. Patti Vaughan, an agent with Assist 2 Sell in Temecula, California, says in recent months she has begun to get calls from borrowers looking to unload houses they can no longer afford. "They've upgraded their houses, put in a pool and bought themselves Hummers and BMW's," she says. "Now they can't get it refinanced and they can't sell."
Glad I checked the "30 year fixed" box when I bought in '03
Yeah me too. 30 year fixed is a mortgage that lets you sleep at night.
As it was I got hit with increases in my escrow account which amounted to a significant jump in my monthly payment this year. I can't imagine if my payments were going up too.