DrumBeat: September 29, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 09/29/06 at 9:23 AM EDT]

The end of oil's stunning ride

The energy crisis is over. You just might not be that happy with the ending.

The last four years has seen a nearly unprecedented surge in oil, gasoline and natural gas prices.

A global economic boom - fueled by Brazil, China, India, Mexico and the United States, among other countries, has sparked a ravenous new appetite for fuel that left producers scrambling to meet demand.

And this summer a combination of events hit the oil market, including a messy switch in gasoline blends, fears of another tough hurricane season, unabated gasoline demand and war in the Middle East. And oh yeah, a truckload of speculators pouring "hot money" into the market.

They combined in what some analysts called a "perfect storm" to push crude oil to a record trading high of $78.40, nearly four times higher than where it began 2002, unadjusted for inflation.

[Update by Leanan on 09/29/06 at 9:23 AM EDT]

Bangladesh power shortage triggers violent protests

About 200 injured in clashes spurred by the fact that residents have been getting just two hours of electricity a day.


Blast at gas pipeline in Turkey


Criminal cases to be launched against Sakhalin energy project

Russia's environmental inspectorate plans criminal proceedings against the operator of the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project over "barbaric" environmental damage caused by pipeline construction, a senior inspector has been quoted as saying.


GM working on plug-in hybrids as well as hydrogen


Wake up to IT's energy crisis


Winter heating bills should be lower this year


Gore's movie boosts solar sales


Statoil Looking for Canadian Oil Sands Deal


Nigeria to trim oil supply to shore up price


Coal said top enemy in fighting global warming


Boeing Says Biofuels Show Some Promise

Sugarcane and switchgrass are unlikely to fuel the next plane you ride, but Boeing Co. says development of biofuels is gaining momentum as airlines and armed forces seek alternatives to expensive jet fuel.


When Renewable Energy Is Bad For The Environment


The Heart of a Revolution

Albert Einstein said, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” He also said, “Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius-and a lot of courage-to move in the opposite direction.” I spent the weekend with genius and with courage, and I am happy to report that they are alive and well and working on our problems.


James Howard Kunstler: A reflection on cities of the future

Don't know much about the results of faith in CNN's predictive capabilities, but I do know that if you whistle as you pass a graveyard the ghost's won't attack.

Leanan, I don't have your email so I can send you articles, but there are a couple of interesting articles on the Rigzone website this AM. Statoil is looking for a tar sands deal in Alberta and has $1 billion to spend, which doesn't say much for their faith in the Jack 2 find, and Trinidad Tobaggo is extending the bid time for their offshore blocks, so they aren't getting the money they wanted or interest in enough of the acreage.

Leanan, I don't have your email so I can send you articles

It's in my public profile.

Statoil is looking for a tar sands deal in Alberta

Already posted that one.

And Statoil states it has $10 billion, meaning it has a lot more, but doesn't want to go public with that. They just got their asses kicked out of the Orinoco a few days ago.

It does give a good indication of what they expect in their own North Sea fields.

Statoil is a portrait of despair. They bet on Venezuela, and lost. They could have gotten into Alberta oilsands long ago, and declined. Now all that is "mineable" has been sold. So they try to get into 'Phase II', the stuff too deep to be mined, that won't be available for years, and requires much more up-front investment. Someone else lost $6 billion in Alberta too the other day...

Let's call it:

While waiting for the Arctic to melt


Statoil hunts for $10 billion, 2nd generation, oil sands deal

Norway's Statoil ASA is on the hunt for an oil sands project, saying it is aiming to strike a deal worth more than a billion dollars to claim a stake in Alberta's bitumen deposits.

The state-owned company -- shrugging off concerns about inflationary pressures in the sector -- said its strategy centres on building an integrated project, complete with an upgrader. Executing that strategy would eventually cost upward of $10-billion, but Statoil is looking to acquire both a project and at least one partner.

Statoil, which is among the top 10 publicly traded oil producers in the world, quietly opened an office in Calgary this spring.

There have been a flurry of oil sands deals in the past 18 months, largely involving large-scale mining efforts, and analysts have suggested the window has closed for deals to acquire that sort of project. That notion does not perturb Statoil, Mr. Sortland said.

He characterizes mining projects as the "first generation" of the oil sands; he is focusing his efforts on in situ projects -- the second generation, in his view -- that melt bitumen and pump it to the surface rather than excavating millions of tonnes of earth.

Statoil has extensive experience with Venezuela's heavy oil deposits, which pose many of the same production challenges as Alberta's oil sands -- particularly in situ projects. At the turn of the decade, Venezuela's Orinoco belt was seen as Alberta's rival for investment capital in non-conventional projects.

But the election of Hugo Chavez in that country, and a subsequent strike and abortive coup, have resulted in increasing pressure against Western oil companies operating in the region, including Statoil.

The Venezuela government is reopening operating agreements to give its state-owned firm, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, a majority stake in upstream operations. The Chavez government has also raised royalty rates, and mused about bringing criminal charges against former officials who crafted the 1990s-era policies that fostered private sector investment.

Last week, Statoil and other Western firms were shut out of the latest preliminary contract round for the Orinoco area.

Please, Oilmanbob and others, stop repeating the misinformation that Jack2 was a find.  It was a production test.  In 2004, there was a find called Jack.  

The players have indicated there will be another production test at the site next year.  Maybe it will be called Jack3.  Maybe the players will wait months to announce the results.  In the best of all possible worlds, the entire administration will be facing impeachment at that time and friends in the oil industry might be looking for another opportunity for self-serving mischief.

You're right, Jack2 was a field confirmation well. The production test was very hopefull-6,000 bbl/day for 30 days- but that doesn't make it cheap. My point, and I'm sure its valid, is that if Statoil is so sure of the Jack find why are they spending a smooth billion on second-rate hydrocarbons that will cost a minimum of $50/bbl to produce and refine? I don't think Statoil believes the media hype either.
I have a question (possibly a dumb one):  Does that 6000 barrels/day that came up for 30 days eventually get sold on the market?  Even though it was only a test?
Gotta do something with it.
In a chat with a lawyer I've known for close to 20 years, he was telling me about his wifes grandad and a converstion he had with him in the 1970's,

Asked him "what did you do for entertainment as a teen" and was told "for 5 cents we rode the inter urban out to the lake."  Turns out the interurban was owned by he electric comany...and the electric company used the train for load regulation.

The interurban ended with the public holding company act.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Utility_Holding_Company_Act_of_1935

In Houston the interurban was ended in 1940 when the mayor, Neal Pickett, campaigned on the platform of not letting the niggers ride for free. My father talks of riding the Interurban from Houston to Galveston and renting a bathing suit at Murdock's pier.
  Isn't it amazing how the masters stir up fear and hatred so that people will vote against their  own interests ? You'd think that after thousands of years we'd have learned.
In Houston the interurban was ended in 1940 when the mayor, Neal Pickett, campaigned on the platform of not letting the niggers ride for free.

If our species survives and ever enters a 'Star-Trek'esque golden age, they will wonder at our barbarity. Talk about slicing off your nose to spite you face.

That was only 60ish years ago. Less than a century. It's hard to believe people like that existed or continue to exist. Sad.

If you think that's bad, I suggest you not look closely at what Congress has been up to this week...
Amen.  If we want to see inhumanity we don't need to look at history, we only need to look collectively in the mirror.
Could you please post the Reader's Digest version?  I don't knwo what you mean.
The reference is probably due to the very close to enabling powers (Nazi party response to terror attack) passed by congress. The ability to declare someone an illegal combatant or terrorist with unlimited detention, secret trials with absolutely no oversite and the redefinition of torture as legal as long as it causes no long term major physical disabilities.

Scarring, Mental harm, Psychologic terror, Starvation, degredation are all legal. The definition of disability and long term would probably allow the legal breakage of bones and removal of fingernails and teeth, possibly even the removal of minor digits. This can occur at any time in detention. Exactly how the torture of someone 4-5 years after capture can still yield much/any information, I have difficulty seeing. I can see it satisfying someones desire for revenge or sadistic urges.

I have a lot of problems with the law and believe it will be tossed by the supreme court as it hardly allows for equality under the law as it targets 'furiners'.

If it stands though all that is needed is an ammendment or two in the future and the law could be applied domestically. Shouldn't be hard to do with a domestic terrorist act (eg london tube bombing style). Then you've pretty well got legal nazi concentration camps. It even has massive secrecy and censorship built in, if you know someone has been arrested under the new rules and speak out, you are off to camp as well. This apparently includes the judges and lawyers associated with the cases. The law was also retrospective so Pres Bush and Co won't be put against the wall after the repubs go away.

The vote was very split along the party lines with a number of republicans breaking ranks. Personally the democrats should be using this in a huge way in the coming elections.

The vote was

Even today, a big reason people oppose public transportation is that they are afraid it will bring undesirables into their nice, safe neighborhoods.
Even today, rich neighborhoods refuse to allow mass transit in, but may allow a subway to pass IF there are no stations.

The worst case is the Red Line subway in Los Angeles was stopped from moving into Beverly Hills by Henry Waxman.  Recently, as traffic gets worse, and they see that Hollywood benefits, there are signs that the rich liberals may relent and let the Red Line go through to UCLA.

Other cases in DC area, one suburb (Georgetown ?) let the subway go through but without a station.  OTOH, Arlington embraced DC Metro.

In Dallas, the light rail goes into subway just before downtown and emerges in downtown.  They go under a rich neighborhood that refused a station (but now wants one).

I'm fairly impressed that CNN ran the story they did in your link, especially the passage below:

With many large oil fields declining in output, and talk swirling by a small yet vocal minority of people who think the world has reached it's peak oil production, and etimates from the Energy Information Administration that the world will use 50 percent more oil by 2030 - it's hard to see why investor interest would diminish.

It's almost dropped in like it's no big deal and an excellent reason to invest.

What's up with this:

It's pretty evident that supply is responding," said Pritchard Capital's Dingmann

Is there really evidence?  The context is clearly that he is saying supply is increasing, but I guess he desn't say that - he just says "responding".  I guess he could be talking about storage levels, is there evidence of extraction rate increasing ?  

Is there really evidence?

Yes, dinopello, there is plenty of evidence.  Of ignorance.

Take this sentence from the same CNN story:

"In the following years Canada's massive tar sands project and other new discoveries like Chevron's Jack field deep in the Gulf of Mexico should begin to yield oil, although prices need to remain above $50 for these ventures to be profitable."

Even the sorry-ass excuses for reporters and editors that CNN chooses to hire should know that the preceding sentence includes the contention that the tar pits should begin to yield oil in the future ("in the following years").  

Are they stupid? Lazy?  Willfully misleading?  Is there any reporting from CNN, which is worthy of public trust?

As for Dingmann, I thing dingbat is the appropiate handle.

 Sure, you can believe the reports about Brad and Angela's baby pictures. The rest is bull crap.
it's hard to see why investor interest would diminish

That line explains why CNN runs a story like this. There's money to be made in Peak Oil.

Ya, but it's just dropped in so blase.  Is this how the MSM is going to expose the public to PO, like an afterthought?
No. like an investment opportunity.

Money is never an afterthought, my friend! That's blasphemy.

Ya...it all just makes me chuckle...the way MSM has tried to spin the situation as a money-making opportunity.

Great...make all the frickin money you can...it'll help start your fire in your fireplace with TSHTF.


On the day we can make a market in Peak oil and renewables, that's the day it happens, nothing else is holding it up.....time for a song

 DAR WILLIAMS Lyrics » Play The Greed Lyrics

I finally learned that the market's righteous holler
Comes from a pale face on a paper dollar
And I betcha got few bucks in your hemp wallet
So throw a tiny wrench in the fiber optic wires
Morals are cheap and you can be the buyers
We can let 'em poison and perish foreign lands
Or we can play the greed right into our hands

Everybody says it can't happen here
Things'll turn around just as sure as they said it
Hell, things change and they all take credit

So ask why there's only forty songs on a station
And ask your cafe about their coffee's plantation
And why is it Arizona hasn't gone solar?
And tell your print shop that hemp grows faster
And it doesn't mean a back room clear cut disaster
The market doesn't care but it wants to understand
And you can play the greed right into your hands

Smiling man says it can't happen here
Channel 4 says it can't happen here
Things'll turn around just as sure as they said it
Hell, the change comes and they all take credit

So roll up your pennies and do your battle
The chairman will start quoting Chief Seattle and
Put little tree frogs on their letterhead
'Cause the market resists and the market absorbs
With a five-pointed leaf on the cover of Forbes
The very same people turned valleys to dams
These are the ones that drain prairies to sand
And they'd just as soon you didn't know this land is your land
But we can play the world back into our hands

Malcom's gonna say it can't happen here
Rupert's gonna say it can't happen here
Things'll turn around just as sure as they said it
Hell, things change and they'll always take the credit

Hell the change comes
Let's let 'em take the credit

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Some Iran related links:

http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?action=news&n_id=32933&l=1

http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?action=news&n_id=32935&l=1

It looks like Inpex of Japan is backing off as far as investing in Iran's oil industry, demanding that they first stop enriching uranium:

http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?action=news&n_id=32897&l=1

 I'd be a little cautious myself when the US is threatening to bomb them "back to the stone age". Is this website a front for the CIA? It sounds like the Chelabi bunch before the US invasion.
Re: The energy crisis is over
In the following years Canada's massive tar sands project and other new discoveries like Chevron's Jack field deep in the Gulf of Mexico should begin to yield oil, although prices need to remain above $50 for these ventures to be profitable.

Couple this with a possible economic slowdown, especially in the U.S., and it's hard to see another run towards $80 like we saw over the summer.

"It's pretty evident that supply is responding," said Pritchard Capital's Dingmann, adding prices will "stay pretty much range-bound."

Well, I guess it's time to turn in my peak oil accreditation. Between Jack and those tar sands, it's all over for us now but the crying. There will be flood of new oil.


About the time we can make the
the ends meet, somebody moves
the ends -- Herbert Hoover

On the other hand, maybe I'll stick around just a bit longer to -- ahhhh, you know -- just see what happens...

The Mackenzie Valley pipeline is crucial for the oilsands projects; there is no alternative source of natural gas in sight. It runs through pristine landscapes (a miracle we have any of that left here). Exxon wants Canada to pay. Negotiations are ongoing.

So are the public consultation meetings. But they are not even mentioned by government and industry. It's a done deal.

Still, there are conflicting interests..

Tribe too busy hunting moose to go to Mackenzie pipeline hearings

A band in the Northwest Territories has asked the National Energy Board to scrap a hearing into the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline today in 82-resident Trout Lake because it'll be too busy hunting moose. In a letter to the NEB, Dennis Deneron, chief of the Sambaa K'e Dene Band in the southern Northwest Territories, said many community residents will be out on the land until the end of the month due to a late moose mating season, and it would be difficult for them to return to the community for the hearing.

Canada says no to Mackenzie pipeline subsidy

The Conservative government won't subsidize the proposed Mackenzie Valley natural gas pipeline, but taking an equity stake in the struggling project is among a range of possibilities, Ottawa's top negotiator said Wednesday.

The comments were made as Imperial Oil Ltd. prepares to resume talks with the federal government about assistance for the pipeline, the cost of which has spiralled to $7.5-billion from $5-billion and is expected to reach roughly $9-billion. The two sides appeared to be exploring positions before the negotiations begin in earnest.

Mr. Rolheiser said Imperial sees the pipeline like an oil sands project, which requires a lot of money up front with a long period before a payoff. The company wants a "fiscal framework" of royalties and taxes that recognizes the high costs and risks.

Oil sands projects enjoy a nominal royalty until capital costs are covered.

Exxon Mobil Corp., which owns 70 per cent of Imperial, is one of three companies that wants to build a pipeline from Alaska to Chicago. In that deal -- which is in limbo -- the state of Alaska wanted a 20-per-cent equity stake.

The province of Newfoundland and Labrador asked this year for a 5-per-cent stake in the undeveloped Hebron offshore oil field but the energy companies, including Exxon, refused and shelved that project.

The 1,200-kilometre Mackenzie line would connect three large natural gas fields in the Mackenzie Delta with Alberta, with an initial capacity to carry 1.2 billion cubic feet a day -- about 7 per cent of current Canadian production.

To say nothing about people wanting to use the Natl gas to heat their homes and have electricity rather than making gasoline for the US and money for the oil cos. With the rest of Canada's natl gas declining, this battle is just getting started.
Natural gas production is up slightly this year to date in Canada.  

I have no doubt that this is a temporary blip.  However, I don't think that space heating is the best use of this gas, when options for bio-mass (pellet furnaces) and ground source heat exchange are real and promise long term supply security for Canadians and possibly most Americans.  Obviously, it would be foolish to throw out still useful gas furnaces, but it is even more foolish, and selfish from an intergenerational perspective, to continue to install new gas burners.

Bio-mass fired district heating units relying on wood pellets and switchgrass pellets, are efficient and have a minimal environmental impact, especially on the GHG front.  Where district heating is not an option, individual stoves can provided household/commercial building heating. Switchgrass, unlike corn, is grown with minimal inputs and can be productively grown on marginal agriculture land and it can be grown in a regime which enhances soil quality, as well as providing wildlife habitat.  

Every effort should be made to preserve some hydro-carbons for future generations.  Canadians don't deserve them anymore than Americans.  They are humanity's endowment.

I basically agree with you. However, I feel strongly that producing gasoline from tar sands to power oversized vehicles is the worst of all possible wastes of the gas, and that it will be needed during a transition to the sources you are describing. At least natl gas furnaces can be made very efficient, and people need heat in Canada (I used to live in Minnesota) as a first priority. I was suggesting that if people realized the limited nature of the resource and the threat to what is currently a necessity for many, they wouldn't allow the tar sand use.
The Globe and Mail, Canada's newspaper of record, writes:

"Exxon Mobil Corp., which owns 70 per cent of Imperial, is one of three companies that wants to build a pipeline from Alaska to Chicago."

There is of course no want on the part of Exxon or any combination of companies to build a pipeline from Alaska to Chicago.  There is a proposal to build a pipeline down the MacKenzie Valley that would tie into the existing pipeline network in Alberta.

Maybe we need  a market-based scheme modelled on the "pizza is free if delivery not within 30 minutes" incentive that exists in the cheesy dough industry.  

Canada's newspaper of record, indeed all those purporting to bring news to the world, would make a thousand dollar donation to a program, aimed at improving the research skills of their employees, each time a factual error is found in published or broadcast reports.  

These media are invariably advocates for the market economy editorializing on its advantages in terms of productivity and efficiency.  How could they oppose a market mechanism that will tend to ensure the accuracy of news?

Perhaps with the Arctic warming, moose will stay frisky for longer.
In the following years Canada's massive tar sands project and other new discoveries like Chevron's Jack field deep in the Gulf of Mexico should begin to yield oil, although prices need to remain above $50 for these ventures to be profitable.

Ouch! So prices have to be above levels that not that long ago led to fuel protests, otherwise Jack will remain untapped.

Funny how quickly the excessive becomes the norm

Re: Funny how quickly the excessive becomes the norm

Yes. It also works the other way. An "elephant" oil field is now a field with 500 mmboe of estimated recoverable reserves. These elephants are getting smaller.


The Dwarf Elephant and Hippo of
Malta next to a Modern Indian Elephant

About the time we can make the ends meet, somebody moves the ends - Herbert Hoover

Those Were The Days
Boy the way Glen Miller played
Songs that made the hit parade.
Guys like us we had it made,
Those were the days.

And you knew who you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man
Like Herbert Hoover again.

Didn't need no welfare state,
Everybody pulled his weight.
Gee our old LaSalle ran great.
Those were the days.

-by Charles Stouse and Lee Adams