DrumBeat: September 29, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 29, 2006 - 9:15am
The end of oil's stunning ride
The energy crisis is over. You just might not be that happy with the ending.The last four years has seen a nearly unprecedented surge in oil, gasoline and natural gas prices.
A global economic boom - fueled by Brazil, China, India, Mexico and the United States, among other countries, has sparked a ravenous new appetite for fuel that left producers scrambling to meet demand.
And this summer a combination of events hit the oil market, including a messy switch in gasoline blends, fears of another tough hurricane season, unabated gasoline demand and war in the Middle East. And oh yeah, a truckload of speculators pouring "hot money" into the market.
They combined in what some analysts called a "perfect storm" to push crude oil to a record trading high of $78.40, nearly four times higher than where it began 2002, unadjusted for inflation.
Bangladesh power shortage triggers violent protests
About 200 injured in clashes spurred by the fact that residents have been getting just two hours of electricity a day.
Blast at gas pipeline in Turkey
Criminal cases to be launched against Sakhalin energy project
Russia's environmental inspectorate plans criminal proceedings against the operator of the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project over "barbaric" environmental damage caused by pipeline construction, a senior inspector has been quoted as saying.
GM working on plug-in hybrids as well as hydrogen
Winter heating bills should be lower this year
Gore's movie boosts solar sales
Statoil Looking for Canadian Oil Sands Deal
Nigeria to trim oil supply to shore up price
Coal said top enemy in fighting global warming
Boeing Says Biofuels Show Some Promise
Sugarcane and switchgrass are unlikely to fuel the next plane you ride, but Boeing Co. says development of biofuels is gaining momentum as airlines and armed forces seek alternatives to expensive jet fuel.
When Renewable Energy Is Bad For The Environment
Albert Einstein said, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” He also said, “Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius-and a lot of courage-to move in the opposite direction.” I spent the weekend with genius and with courage, and I am happy to report that they are alive and well and working on our problems.
James Howard Kunstler: A reflection on cities of the future
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Leanan, I don't have your email so I can send you articles, but there are a couple of interesting articles on the Rigzone website this AM. Statoil is looking for a tar sands deal in Alberta and has $1 billion to spend, which doesn't say much for their faith in the Jack 2 find, and Trinidad Tobaggo is extending the bid time for their offshore blocks, so they aren't getting the money they wanted or interest in enough of the acreage.
It's in my public profile.
Already posted that one.
It does give a good indication of what they expect in their own North Sea fields.
Let's call it:
The players have indicated there will be another production test at the site next year. Maybe it will be called Jack3. Maybe the players will wait months to announce the results. In the best of all possible worlds, the entire administration will be facing impeachment at that time and friends in the oil industry might be looking for another opportunity for self-serving mischief.
Asked him "what did you do for entertainment as a teen" and was told "for 5 cents we rode the inter urban out to the lake." Turns out the interurban was owned by he electric comany...and the electric company used the train for load regulation.
The interurban ended with the public holding company act.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Utility_Holding_Company_Act_of_1935
Isn't it amazing how the masters stir up fear and hatred so that people will vote against their own interests ? You'd think that after thousands of years we'd have learned.
If our species survives and ever enters a 'Star-Trek'esque golden age, they will wonder at our barbarity. Talk about slicing off your nose to spite you face.
That was only 60ish years ago. Less than a century. It's hard to believe people like that existed or continue to exist. Sad.
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-detain29sep29,1,557934.story?coll=la-headlines- frontpage
Scarring, Mental harm, Psychologic terror, Starvation, degredation are all legal. The definition of disability and long term would probably allow the legal breakage of bones and removal of fingernails and teeth, possibly even the removal of minor digits. This can occur at any time in detention. Exactly how the torture of someone 4-5 years after capture can still yield much/any information, I have difficulty seeing. I can see it satisfying someones desire for revenge or sadistic urges.
I have a lot of problems with the law and believe it will be tossed by the supreme court as it hardly allows for equality under the law as it targets 'furiners'.
If it stands though all that is needed is an ammendment or two in the future and the law could be applied domestically. Shouldn't be hard to do with a domestic terrorist act (eg london tube bombing style). Then you've pretty well got legal nazi concentration camps. It even has massive secrecy and censorship built in, if you know someone has been arrested under the new rules and speak out, you are off to camp as well. This apparently includes the judges and lawyers associated with the cases. The law was also retrospective so Pres Bush and Co won't be put against the wall after the repubs go away.
The vote was very split along the party lines with a number of republicans breaking ranks. Personally the democrats should be using this in a huge way in the coming elections.
The vote was
The worst case is the Red Line subway in Los Angeles was stopped from moving into Beverly Hills by Henry Waxman. Recently, as traffic gets worse, and they see that Hollywood benefits, there are signs that the rich liberals may relent and let the Red Line go through to UCLA.
Other cases in DC area, one suburb (Georgetown ?) let the subway go through but without a station. OTOH, Arlington embraced DC Metro.
In Dallas, the light rail goes into subway just before downtown and emerges in downtown. They go under a rich neighborhood that refused a station (but now wants one).
With many large oil fields declining in output, and talk swirling by a small yet vocal minority of people who think the world has reached it's peak oil production, and etimates from the Energy Information Administration that the world will use 50 percent more oil by 2030 - it's hard to see why investor interest would diminish.
It's almost dropped in like it's no big deal and an excellent reason to invest.
Is there really evidence? The context is clearly that he is saying supply is increasing, but I guess he desn't say that - he just says "responding". I guess he could be talking about storage levels, is there evidence of extraction rate increasing ?
Yes, dinopello, there is plenty of evidence. Of ignorance.
Take this sentence from the same CNN story:
"In the following years Canada's massive tar sands project and other new discoveries like Chevron's Jack field deep in the Gulf of Mexico should begin to yield oil, although prices need to remain above $50 for these ventures to be profitable."
Even the sorry-ass excuses for reporters and editors that CNN chooses to hire should know that the preceding sentence includes the contention that the tar pits should begin to yield oil in the future ("in the following years").
Are they stupid? Lazy? Willfully misleading? Is there any reporting from CNN, which is worthy of public trust?
As for Dingmann, I thing dingbat is the appropiate handle.
That line explains why CNN runs a story like this. There's money to be made in Peak Oil.
Money is never an afterthought, my friend! That's blasphemy.
Great...make all the frickin money you can...it'll help start your fire in your fireplace with TSHTF.
On the day we can make a market in Peak oil and renewables, that's the day it happens, nothing else is holding it up.....time for a song
DAR WILLIAMS Lyrics » Play The Greed Lyrics
I finally learned that the market's righteous holler
Comes from a pale face on a paper dollar
And I betcha got few bucks in your hemp wallet
So throw a tiny wrench in the fiber optic wires
Morals are cheap and you can be the buyers
We can let 'em poison and perish foreign lands
Or we can play the greed right into our hands
Everybody says it can't happen here
Things'll turn around just as sure as they said it
Hell, things change and they all take credit
So ask why there's only forty songs on a station
And ask your cafe about their coffee's plantation
And why is it Arizona hasn't gone solar?
And tell your print shop that hemp grows faster
And it doesn't mean a back room clear cut disaster
The market doesn't care but it wants to understand
And you can play the greed right into your hands
Smiling man says it can't happen here
Channel 4 says it can't happen here
Things'll turn around just as sure as they said it
Hell, the change comes and they all take credit
So roll up your pennies and do your battle
The chairman will start quoting Chief Seattle and
Put little tree frogs on their letterhead
'Cause the market resists and the market absorbs
With a five-pointed leaf on the cover of Forbes
The very same people turned valleys to dams
These are the ones that drain prairies to sand
And they'd just as soon you didn't know this land is your land
But we can play the world back into our hands
Malcom's gonna say it can't happen here
Rupert's gonna say it can't happen here
Things'll turn around just as sure as they said it
Hell, things change and they'll always take the credit
Hell the change comes
Let's let 'em take the credit
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?action=news&n_id=32933&l=1
http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?action=news&n_id=32935&l=1
It looks like Inpex of Japan is backing off as far as investing in Iran's oil industry, demanding that they first stop enriching uranium:
http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?action=news&n_id=32897&l=1
About the time we can make the
the ends meet, somebody moves
the ends -- Herbert Hoover
On the other hand, maybe I'll stick around just a bit longer to -- ahhhh, you know -- just see what happens...
So are the public consultation meetings. But they are not even mentioned by government and industry. It's a done deal.
Still, there are conflicting interests..
I have no doubt that this is a temporary blip. However, I don't think that space heating is the best use of this gas, when options for bio-mass (pellet furnaces) and ground source heat exchange are real and promise long term supply security for Canadians and possibly most Americans. Obviously, it would be foolish to throw out still useful gas furnaces, but it is even more foolish, and selfish from an intergenerational perspective, to continue to install new gas burners.
Bio-mass fired district heating units relying on wood pellets and switchgrass pellets, are efficient and have a minimal environmental impact, especially on the GHG front. Where district heating is not an option, individual stoves can provided household/commercial building heating. Switchgrass, unlike corn, is grown with minimal inputs and can be productively grown on marginal agriculture land and it can be grown in a regime which enhances soil quality, as well as providing wildlife habitat.
Every effort should be made to preserve some hydro-carbons for future generations. Canadians don't deserve them anymore than Americans. They are humanity's endowment.
"Exxon Mobil Corp., which owns 70 per cent of Imperial, is one of three companies that wants to build a pipeline from Alaska to Chicago."
There is of course no want on the part of Exxon or any combination of companies to build a pipeline from Alaska to Chicago. There is a proposal to build a pipeline down the MacKenzie Valley that would tie into the existing pipeline network in Alberta.
Maybe we need a market-based scheme modelled on the "pizza is free if delivery not within 30 minutes" incentive that exists in the cheesy dough industry.
Canada's newspaper of record, indeed all those purporting to bring news to the world, would make a thousand dollar donation to a program, aimed at improving the research skills of their employees, each time a factual error is found in published or broadcast reports.
These media are invariably advocates for the market economy editorializing on its advantages in terms of productivity and efficiency. How could they oppose a market mechanism that will tend to ensure the accuracy of news?
Ouch! So prices have to be above levels that not that long ago led to fuel protests, otherwise Jack will remain untapped.
Funny how quickly the excessive becomes the norm
Yes. It also works the other way. An "elephant" oil field is now a field with 500 mmboe of estimated recoverable reserves. These elephants are getting smaller.
The Dwarf Elephant and Hippo of
Malta next to a Modern Indian Elephant
Boy the way Glen Miller played
Songs that made the hit parade.
Guys like us we had it made,
Those were the days.
And you knew who you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man
Like Herbert Hoover again.
Didn't need no welfare state,
Everybody pulled his weight.
Gee our old LaSalle ran great.
Those were the days.
-by Charles Stouse and Lee Adams
Me too! Now we find out it was all about happy motoring!
"Deep recession in 1938 stalled the nation's fragile economic recovery, and sales were well down throughout the industry...
Then in the summer of 1940, production halted abruptly and it was all over."
http://www.100megsfree4.com/cadillac/lasalle/lasalle.htm
IMO the perfect storm hasn't even begun, that was just a few rain bands.
How perspectives change.
We have credible reports that the world's four largest producing fields are declining.
World (EIA) crude + condensate production is down by 1.25% since December, an annual decline rate of 2.50%.
Since Matt Simmons' book, which warned of a possible decline in Saudi oil production, was published in May, 2005, Saudi crude + condensate production is down by 5.2% (to 9.2 mbpd in June). Petrologistics reports suggest current production levels are close to 9.0 mbpd.
Russia has reported an 11.5% decline in oil exports from 7/05 to 7/06. (Given the Russian government's financial interest in the largest IPO in Russian history, one has to wonder about reported Russian production numbers, especially given the very sharp decline in oil exports.)
I estimate that net (crude + condensate) oil exports by the top 10 net oil exporters (based on 2004 exporters) are down by 4.6% from 12/05 to 6/06, an annual decline rate of 9.2%.
In the first seven months of 2006, oil prices traded at the highest (nominal) levels in history, yet we saw declining production. When and where have we seen this pattern before?
how would you characterize the surge of deep sea oil, per ASPO, Skrebowski & RR?
Is is possible that KSA and Russian oil is starting to decline, but that decline is cancelled out by deep sea?
Could it be that, in conjunction with a slowing economy, that is why we have storage surpluses and declining prices?
IMO, in regard to the first question, no--but time will tell.
In the Seventies, when we saw a 1,000% increase in oil prices, we saw both a supply response (more production) and a demand response (less consumption).
IMO, going forward oil prices will be determined by a series of auctions for declining oil production and especially for declining net oil exports. If demand is low enough, it is not necessarily a given that oil prices will always go up. But I do not expect to see production increases, and I especially do not expect to see increasing net oil exports.
Just because B follows A does not mean that B is caused by or related to A (post hoc ergo proctor hoc); however, in January I predicted, based on Khebab's HL work, that Russia and Saudi Arabia would show production declines this year. So far, through June, that is what we have seen (although Russia has recently reported--suspiciously IMO--production increases, while showing double digit year over year declines in oil exports)
In regard to the Russian question, let's assume that the US government and key government officials participated in the largest IPO in US history, for a US oil company that produced only US oil. Would we be somewhat suspicious of the EIA production numbers?
As Tate noted, we did not see a positive production response from Texas. Rising production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the North Sea more than offset the Texas and Lower 48 declines. The problem is that the world is now where the Lower 48 was in 1970.
And Saudi Arabia and the world are showing declining crude + condensate production (EIA).
However in those same two years I see deflation everywhere as the housing sector tanks and the jobs that go with it will be a drag on demand for all types of things. However when PO firmly takes hold, the ensuing inflation in this commodity and the printing presses of Bernanke will take us into inflation and correspondingly I wonder if we'll have another mini boom as this new money POURS into alterntaive energy and COAL.
ASPO, for instance, decided after studying Skrebowski, to shift peak back from 2007 to 2010. This is not a trivial matter, at least in the short term.
Thunderhorse is delayed until at least 2008. The new Caspian Sea production is delayed until at least 2010. Also, I continue to wonder if there is some kind of unexpected deep sea corrosion problem at work at Thunderhorse--that may be a problem with all of these ultra-deep water projects. The corrosion problem at Thunderhorse is completely unrelated to the hurricane damage.
However, my key point is that I think that Chris, et al, are underestimating the decline in production from the old large fields.
In 1972, production from the East Texas Field hit a secondary peak, close to 40 years after its previous peak in the Thirties. What would Chris, et al, have predicted for the East Texas Field from 1973 to 1982, given that production had been increasing for the past 10 years, up to 1972?
When Ghawar was producing 5 mbpd, it accounted for about the same percentage of total world crude + condensate production that East Texas accounted for, relative to Texas production, in 1972 (around 7% or so).
The recent decline in oil prices is the seventh decline of 15% or more (I don't know over what time frame). The prior six declines of 15% or more all resulted in new oil price highs within a few months.
Middle East Economic Digest,Volume 50; Issue 34
Plumbing the depths: Saudi Aramco has unveiled further details of a major upstream investment programme that is already yielding results. At the heart of the programme is the giant Ghawar field
"Twilight at Ghawar is fast approaching," predicts Twilight in the Desert--the Coming Sandi Oil Shock & the World Economy. "Some day (and perhaps that day will be soon), the remarkably high well flow rates at Ghawar's northern end will fade, as reservoir pressures finally plummet below bubble point and head towards dew point. The death of this great 'king' will leave no field of vaguely comparable stature in the line of succession."
This diatribe was soon challenged by Saudi Aramco. "We have a lot of areas to explore and to find a lot of oil and gas," vice-president of exploration Mahmoud Abdul Baqi said at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic & International Studies in August 2005. "Our track record shows we have delivered for the past 70 years and will continue to deliver in the next 70 years and beyond."
Ghawar continues to account for about 52 per cent of Saudi Arabia's total output, and is expected to do so for many years. The prime reasons are Aramco's aggressive application of myriad new technologies and remedial measures. "An extensive observation and drilling programme is in place at Ghawar and is supplemented with permanent down-hole monitoring and intelligent well completions," says the spokesperson.
There are two main targets: stemming the rate of decline in production; and increasing the reserves recovery period. "Drilling in mature fields and the development of new fields with long plateau lives will lower the composite decline rate of producing fields to about 2 per cent," the spokesperson says. Given Saudi Arabia's current 5-10 per cent annual rate of decline, this would be quite an achievement. Aramco's policy of producing oil "gently" looks as though it is beginning to pay off. "Our reserves are recovered over a 60-80-year period, compared to 20-30 years by many international producers," the spokesperson adds.
An Open Letter to Vinod Khosla
This letter, from a fellow Indian émigré, makes a number of important points that Mr. Khosla should heed. Some excerpts:
My reading of the letter is that it was more meant to convey to Khosla that he, of all people, should know better because India has tried similar policies and failed.
Another part of the letter that reiterates some of the things I have said/written to Khosla:
best --
The Pied Piper of Ethanol
You are still the king. By far.
Hint: It was in a Red Herring article from just a couple of days ago. A reader brought it to my attention just a few minutes ago.
OK, while in the process of giving up, my last desperate gamble has to be:
you guessed
The link: Khosla: Ethanol Not Final Fuel
Non paranoid honest people well NEVER be a match to the true "dominant alpha males" of the monkey tribe.
But corn-based ethanol—and even cellulosic ethanol, made from plant waste—are only steps along a larger trajectory toward other fuels, he said.
By saying this he vindicates his own view about the "trajectory", emphasize the "temporary" nature of ethanol, comfort the would be co-investors about his "wisdom" and cover his arse in case of any failure (he's been doing his "best").
Learn from that kind of guys if you want to counter them...
IMHO ethanol and biodiesel are on the same track as the Green Revolution.
In the beginning, the Green Revolution dramatically increased yields, alleviated famines, and got Dr. Norman Borlog a Nobel Peace Prize.
In time, the Green Revolution was derided as the "Black revolution," and the miracle seeds became "frankenfoods". Monsanto, the market leader, lost heavily due to the controveries.
Now we have ethanol and biodiesel, which at the moment are the darlings of the greens. But once the slack is gone and people are going hungry, you can bet that Khosla and other market leaders are going to wear a similar label: ie baby killers, starvation profiteers, etc., due to --
We'll be treated to ads and cartoons of starving people being fed into the gas tanks of trucks and cars.
IMHO I think whoever is on the forefront of this bio fuels crusade is going to suffer tremendously, in time. This is undoubtedly a monumental dead end for this reason. Who wants to make money off starving babies?
There's no point, really. Right now it's at the stage of using french fry grease to power your van. THat's commendable. It's the next step that isn't necessarily being thought through.
But this is in a small town, and it is perhaps different in Berkeley, where people are more in tune to the dangers of ramping up such a technology.
Well, here is someone who mildly disagrees at Gristmill:
Schizophrenic biofuels
You are absolutely right, there are enormous distortions in the power and money relationships between first and third world, such as 3rd world landowners growing export crops, while the workers have no land.
But FTF will merely make things worse. For instance, "biodiesel" is also known as "cooking oil". If enough 1st world car owners convert to biodiesel, the poor in Lima, Lagos and etc. will starve.
Same with ethanol. Cheap American corn soybeans dominate the markets; but what happens when they become car fuel? The international price of grains will skyrocket, and the poor starve.
Isn't that what Californians are trying to do anyway with their anti global warming initiative? This may not be the best approach to cut energy consumption, but I consider the unintended result good news, if true. Keep it in the ground. Their grandchildren may need it in 50 years.
Furthermore, isn't the implied goal of this proposition to get people to substitute ethanl for oil. If that is the goal, what is the problem with reduced fossil fuel energy consumption?
You hit upon EXACTLY why I am torn by the initiative. Will it reduce consumption? Yes, I believe it will by making gasoline more expensive. And I support that. However, the proponents are conducting a misleading campaign. How will the public react when they realize they have been misled? Will there be a backlash against alternative fuels?
I think it is a pretty inefficient way to reduce energy usage. You could have probably gotten twice the reduction at a much lower cost by writing a different initiative.
I have read that Goldman Sachs re-allocated the % of unleaded in their GSCI from around 8% to close to 2% causing a sell-off of contracts (Sept. and Oct) by hedge fund managers, traders,etc. The implication was that this act had political motivations. Any comments? Has this been addressed already?
Here is a link: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/kirby/2006/0925.html
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/27/91526/0186#comments
webmaster forums are reporting that Google is updating PR. based on the results available at this page, it looks to me like the Oil Drum homepage is going to see a nice bump in PR ... to a 7. IP 66.102.7.99 is supposed to be offering a glimpse into the future.
if that holds, expect to start seeing visits/traffic from Google grow in the future. looks like all those backlinks are starting to pay off in Google's eyes
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061009/lindorff
Bombing Iran certainly should push us over some sort of "tipping point".
Also, isn't it likely that the money going into the stock market is money fleeing real estate? A desperate search for profitability...
However, there is growing dissent in the middle east because of the wests foreign policy in the area so how would other OPEC countries respond? Is ther much love lost between Iran and it's OPEC buddies? (Ignore Iraq as friend of! Or maybe not!) Could anothe OPEC oil embargo happen?
Marco.
If the US bombs Iran, look for the Iranians to call for the end of Middle East occupation, and a pan-Gulf export halt until the US withdraws.
I'd be interested to see the reaction of many European and Asian countries who buy oil from Iran. I can't imagine they're going to be too happy with the US when our attacks delay delivery of oil to these countries. Do you think any of them would stand should-to-shoulder with Iran against the US? I can think of a few: China, Russia, maybe Japan and France?
Tom Anderson-Brown
Marco.
All I can say is, the 4th QTR starts next Monday and I have this sickly gut-feeling, it's going to be memorable in so many ways.
It is true that there is a lot of duplicate postings on TOD but whenever in doubt anyone can use something like this :
http://www.theoildrum.com/?op=search&offset=0&old_count=30&type=comment&topic=&s ection=&string=20061009%2Flindorff&search=Search&count=30
That is, search for all or a substring of the link URL.
You don't need to type all this, just go to Your comments in the right column type in the key string and switch to 'Comments' instead of 'Comments by' in the 'Find' menu before hitting the Search button.
That was on purpose, so they won't replace you by someone less obtuse.
... maybe I haven't kept up with projected Democratic gains, bõãÂqhat's what the pundits were saying a month or two ago.
The power outages in Bangladesh, with the resulting protests, is an interesting illustration of the relentless march to Duncan's Olduvai Gorge. The trashing of electric utility infrastructure is tantamount to beating a cow senseless because her milk production has decreased below expectations. Obviously, this will not increase output.
It will be fascinating to see if the Bangladeshi PTB jumpstart a massive educational campaign to inform the unwashed masses of Peakoil, Duncan's Theory, and Overshoot & Dieoff to increase societal cooperation levels and decrease the violence. Past examinations of human history suggests that the PTB will instead stupidly resort to incredible violence, to facilitate and accelerate the overall decline rate for everyone, versus a methodically planned withdrawal to the lifeboats.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Ahhh, but why should 'the rich' have electrical power, when 'the poor' lacks it?
Such an action lets the pain be shared and makes the matter something beyond a 'why should I care I have money' type issue. not to mention the whole 'smashing things makes one feel better' line of thinking.
When you are at the bottom, the only spot lower is 6 feet under. And when you decide that such would be a release from your existance at the bottom, what do you have to loose?
Thxs for responding. Destruction of infrastructure only lowers detritus carrying-capacity making the wise transition to optimal biosolar living that much more difficult. The poor, by losing the limited leverage provided by their FFs, are ignorantly forcing themselves to ransack all remaining biotic resources in their environment far more than a carefully planned transition would. In short, they are not acting smarter than their genes.
Ever since Malthus wrote his crucial work, we have had ten generations, or more, that have refused to heed his lessons, thus greatly expanding our Tragedy of the Commons and present Overshoot.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
YES!
This is the very reason that there will ALWAYS be social inequalities no matter what.
Ignorance is just a positive feedback with negative consequences which results in the hardening of the boundary between the have and the have not, between the (somewhat) enlightened and the "masses".
It will never be the case that everybody is "enlightened" and that gives SO MUCH opportunities and incentives to the "enlightened" to abuse their already existing advantage that this will never go away.
My only concern is that in spite of this we should manage to avoid crashing the whole specie by bowing too easily to the whims of either the "elites" or the "masses".
Yea, because inequalities would never come about by deception...it has to be one group is destructive and the other is not.
Thank you for clearing that up.
Are you misreading me on purpose or are you THAT dumb?
I say BOTH groups are destructive, the masses by ignorance (enhanced by deception from the elites), the elites by deception fuelled by greed.
The elites/masses difference has some basis in intrinsic capabilities (genetics) augmented by cultural reinforcements (self-serving). Whenever the elites loose any real effectiveness thru degenerescense and corruption they get flushed by revolution like in 1789 France or China periodic dynastic breakups.
I am afraid that the current US elites smell much of corruption and are likely to get dumped in spite of their frantic attempts to keep in command thru hardening of government control.
Detainee Bill and the Dawning of a Fascist America
Shitstorm ahead...
Are you misreading me on purpose or are you THAT dumb?
Nice try. Rather than admit what you wrote is a tragically flawed argument, you go for 'that dumb'.
Nice to see the insult, because you than admit the rest of the quote Yea, because inequalities would never come about by deception...it has to be one group is destructive and the other is not. you agree with when you say the elites by deception
Glad I gave you the oppertunity to clarify your point. You are welcome.
???
I am not sure of whether or not we are "somewhat" in agreement because you seem to lean more toward the culpability of the elites.
I will restate my point, hopefully more clearly:
Mutually Assured Destruction is another form of the same basic strategy. Basically "If I lose, I will make sure you also lose".
What is facinating about these riots - is that they show that a market based solution that rations energy by price will not work. Those who lose will just tear down the system.
Which says that to avoid collapse, we must ration gasoline by need.
Didn't England have huge riots over rising fuel costs?
In a less "monolithic" environment it used to make sense.
Whenever there were loosely similar "tribes" which were not punished by vengeance due to some happy circumstances preventing them to encounter denial of life for the most unfavored, these "lucky tribes" got a positive evolutionary selection for whatever factors were the source of the "happy circumstances".
As we are now, more or less, a single global worldwide tribe any serious "punishment" will wipe out the whole "human tribe" except may be for the Sentinelese and somesuch.
Hail Mel Gibson!
'Today Bangla Desh, tomorrow....."
So what do we have so far on our Olduvai Countdown, Bob?
- Zimbabwe, Bangla Desh are confirmed
- Tanzania a likely candidate.
- Pakistan, nation wide blackout a few days ago, 160 million people!, and Pakistan is not a poor country compared to Bangla Desh (saw Musharraf on TV a few times -Daily Show- and thought: what a smart man). They'll crawl back from the whole, but for how long?
Who else has announced their candidacy? Let's not forget blackouts that don't involve entire nations.I know, I should take some time for a "blackout' google. Soon.
What fascinates me is the way these shortages tend to cause other shortages. For example, the lack of electricity caused everyone to run out and buy generators, leading to gasoline and diesel shortages.
Pakistan and India have been struggling with power shortages for awhile now. I foresee a lot of coal burning in their future.
Thxs for responding. Yep, desire for detritus MPP only reinforces the 'diminishing return' feedback loops leading to ever more problems. ASPO Depletion Protocols, if adopted by leaders worldwide, would do much to jumpstart the transition to alternative living, but I don't see these topdogs being eager for this change. But it really is as simple as Pres. Bush watching topdog Barney taking a crap in the White House's Rose Garden -- if all of nature instinctively seeks a rough equilibrium of close-coupled biosolar feedback loops, we should be doing the same too. I would be much more optimistic for our future if Bush would imitate Barney with humanure leadership.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
A summary of the articles below:
Anybody think it's a coincidence that legalizing the crackdown on immigrants coincides with legalizing the crackdown on the domestic population?
Congress is writing into law what would seem to be as un-constitutional as it gets. Unlimited spying on your own people? How far are you from the point where neighbors start informing on each other for unpatriotic behavior?
Not that Congress matters anymore; it's up to the Executive to interpret the Constitution. The same Executive who volunteered to interpret the Geneva Convention, which he deemed "vague". That comment specifically targeted the term "human dignity". Yes, that is very vague, isn't it? What on earth could that mean?
Apparently, what comes in from Mexico are not terrorists, but criminals. And gardeners and cleaning ladies taking away American jobs. Don't give us your huddled masses, we are the huddles masses.
Wait till the remaining contents of Cantarell fit in the palm of your hand, and then try to stop them. How many refugees are you prepared to kill? Thousands of Africans have died this year already trying to cross into Europe in leaky bathtubs and cookie jars. 99% are desperate people, not tourists or fortune seekers. Either we provide them with human dignity at home, or they will come get it here. That's the only choice.
From Canada come the terrorists. Live ammo practice on the Great Lakes?! For what? "I don't know what it is, but I know I want to be prepared for it when it happens." What kind of logic is that?
There's a doc on PBS sometime this week, by Lowell Hoffman, if I remember correctly, that is based on research into terrorists and their sleeping cells. Conclusion: They don't exist. Nobody's able to find any.
Are there potential terrorists in Canada? Maybe two or three, maybe none. But how does that justify cracking down on the lives of hundreds of milions of people, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, writing laws that make it legal to lock people up without trial for the rest of their lives? The disappearing crowds in places like Myanmar, North Korea and China have nothing on you.
900 watchtowers, and talk of an actual fence on the US-Canada border, the more I read it, the more I get convinced it's to keep people from fleeing, not entering. Who from Canada wants to flee to the US? Two or three 'perhaps terrorists' that likely don't even exist? For that you need live ammo? 900 towers? Sensors, motion detectors, cameras and unmanned aircraft?
No guys, there is no longer any risk that the US will degrade into a police state. It already is. And you were the sleeper cells while it happened.
PS while he's busy at it, the Executive might want to interpret the national anthem as well. Let's be honest, 'The Land of the Free?'
Oh, no! It's peak oil! The housing bubble! Iran! Tuna! Chavez! The 12th Imam! Touchdown! The Broncos win! What a throw!
Do you hail from Denver, SAT-dude? If so, I will have to despise you since I am from KC and Elway robbed so many games from us.
When Renewable Energy Is Bad For The Environment
It seems all too commonplace that people and governments are attempting to deal to deal with energy issues without seeing the bigger picture. They can't see the rainforest for the biomass.
So called renewable fuels are trotted out everywhere by politicians everywhere, because they can convince people it is a free lunch and they can pretend they give a damn about energy and the enviroment at the same time. They cannot admit that they do not have a solution that does not have negative impacts because they would finally have to get around to the obvious approach that we need to quit consuming so much of everything. Any "solution" from their perspective cannot have a remote chance to having the slightest nano size impact on the GDP.
I will send money to the first politician who stands up and tells his/her constituents. "Quit having babies, stay away from the mall, and junk your SUVs."
Politicians on the other hand... feel free.
I will send money to the first politician who stands up and tells his/her constituents. "Quit having babies, stay away from the mall, and junk your SUVs."
Amen!
It was nice knowing you.
Thanks for volunteering.
<sarcasm>Hypocrisy, you are not taking ANY risk with this statement.</sarcasm>
Nicely put.
As Garrett Hardin wrote: "You can't do just one thing".
But try explaining that to the general public.
So, how many millions of hectares has nuclear reactor waste contaminated this year?
Oh wait, maybe 10.
When are people going to start believing the laws of physics, and physicists?
Kenneth Deffeyes speaking at Alaska Fairbanks University.
When applying Chapstick, I like to say, "How many lives? One, Two, Three, Four..." with each stroke.
Kind of sadistic. Perhaps exaggerated. But true.
Tom Anderson-Brown
- at least we've come a little way since then and women aren't unwittingly smearing their lips with the blubber of an endangered species.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/09/amaranth_hedge.html
It's a econ POV into why Amaranth failed so big! Basically they really concentrated their positions and they flipped the other way. Now I read about Pirate Capital is imploding as half of their staff has walked!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apjF3MtSYZHk&refer=home
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Pirate Capital LLC, a $1.7 billion hedge fund, said five of its 10 investment professionals resigned, two weeks after the firm came under regulatory scrutiny for possible securities- law violations.
And now I read there's another Hedge Fund "taking a break" and they might return. WTF? Tremors....Beginnings?
http://www.nypost.com/seven/09282006/business/hedge_loses_edge_business_zachery_kouwe.htm
"But then I saw this detail, which brings the story closer to home. It seems that $175 million of the cash that Amaranth had to play with came from the San Diego Employees Retirement Association, which may have lost $87 million on their Amaranth investment."
Reminds me of how we were talking about figuring out where pension funds are invested, how deep their necks are in risk etc. So much to do..
I remain convinced that a lot of people will lose their pensions this way.
IIRC, the New York State Retirement system lost more than that on Enron and Worldcom.
Many governments loosened the restrictions. We have to find out yet, but I'm sure lots of the funds are invested in risky propositions.
The San Diego case looks like a good example. Investing retirement money in hedge funds?!
I personally think if everyone had a firmer understanding of WHY hedge funds make money the way they do ,(trading on high risk debt, er I mean assets), many would realize the giant game. It's a ponzi scheme and the earliest entrants have been handsomely rewarded. I also want to reinterate that if Amaranth lost $6B in the options market, then someone made $6B, so there would be little net affect. I know no one MADE $6B, but it's a zero sum game so there is a winner somewhere.
There was a moment (1990's) when there were profits to be had that they didn't want to be left out of (yes, there is/was a logic there, and a surge in high-risk investments). Many pension systems have so many billions "under their command" that they can make and shake things. Some have tried to influence corp's 'green' policies just with the power of numbers.
But in the end, what it comes down to now, is gambling with grandmother's nest-egg, and she ain't even your granny. The galls and guys running the day-to-day control of all that cash come from the same schools as the ones running private funds, and they want in on the bragging games.
When you have $100 or $800 billion in your portfolio, who's going to call you back? Some civil servant who never had more than $20K in the bank? There is a chance they will do well, but no guarantee. One more complication is that many pension systems foresee a future full of problems, graying population etc. So there's pressure from within to make more than the usual percentage.
I'll stop for now, it's an interesting subject.
Many companies offer 401k plans that are considered by most employees to be bomb-proof as a source of income after "retirement". It is my view that retirement won't be an option for people my age (29), and that 401k's and mutual funds won't provide jack for anyone planning to retire after about 2010.
I cashed mine out to pay off debt and procure more stable forms of wealth.
Tom Anderson-Brown
Fix your house up, build a garden, buy solar panels if possible, buy some emergency supplies, and lots of chocolate bars.
My personal preference is for solutions that will help my children and grandchildren live lives worth living. Of what value is a solar panel if the solar industry collapses? Of what value is a chocolate bar once I've eaten it?
What I'm trying to say is, if you believe your retirement is not going to be valuable when you retire, pull out what you can right now and use it for material goods you may need later while the money still has purchasing power.
I also love chocolate (especially the Lindt 80% bars - yum!) so I'm trying to learn how to grow the cacao. I'm in a reasonably good place to grow it (Fla), but the bugger is a tough one to get to grow well. And getting the seeds to sprout is a b&^%*. Plus, where we are aiming to move to it will be a greenhouse plant, which I don't know that well, (My wife does know greenhouses- but she's not a chocolate person, keeps pushing me to learn how to grow dates!)
I'm in complete agreement with you on "investing" in your house, if you are where you think generations can make a go of it. My current house is not that, but I hope to make that move in the next year or two. But even more important than fixing your home is learning how to fix your home. I'm a fair handyman, but have a lot to learn (e.g., I can repair a roof, but putting on a new one is beyond me.) And even more important than learning these things yourself is arranging to allow your children and grandchildren to learn them. Something tells me you won't be able to go to the local Home Debit to contract out your home repairs come 2050.
As for our savings, we are pretty much split between gold/silver on the one hand and short term CDs, notes, etc on the other. The short term stuff is aimed at that new house I was talking about. The gold is aimed at the days when paper and electronic cash are useless.
If Amaranth lost $6 billion, and all those contracts were closed out on the futures exchange, then we also have other investors who made $6 billion. Unfortunately the losers will be those public retirement plans, who invested in Amaranth, that have no business investing in black box hedge funds. The winners will probably be the larger Wall Street firms. Yes, in a way commodities are a zero sum game sometimes, but while the game is on the underlying commodity - in this case natural gas - could have wild price swings unrelated to changes in supply and demand.
Who do you think? The people who RUN the show.
You know, the (some of the) ones who OWN the FED.
Amaranth's Effect on the Market
by Richard Appel
<SNIP>
Finally, the banks and financial institutions that financed Amaranth called their loans. This forced Amaranth to sell their energy book. Interestingly, it was reportedly purchased by J.P. Morgan Chase and the Citadel Investment Group. I suspect that they were two of if not the largest shorts in the market.
<SNIP>
In my opinion, Citadel and J.P. Morgan Chase played the game brilliantly. They garnered huge profits while Amaranth's investors suffered incredible losses.
<SNIP>
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6000.htm
Another one.
----------------
HEDGE LOSES EDGE
DIRECTOR GOES SURFING
September 28, 2006 -- A week after Amaranth lost $6 billion on natural gas, another billion-dollar hedge fund is closing its doors after investments turned sour.
New York-based firm Narragansett Asset Management, run by 41-year-old Joseph Dowling III, told investors in a letter earlier this month that it has liquidated about 80 percent of its holdings and will return a "substantial" part of the $1 billion fund to investors by the end of September.
Narragansett's returns over the last two years have not been up to snuff and, through the first eight months of this year, the firm is down 2 percent, Dowling said in the letter.
While most of Narragansett's employees are being shown the door, the firm will technically remain open while Dowling, an avid surfer, goes on vacation for 12 to 18 months.
"Toward the end of my sabbatical, I expect to take a fresh look at our historical investment results and fine-tune my investment strategy and portfolio management before returning," he said in the letter.
Sources inside Narragansett said traders and other employees, who have some of their money tied up in the fund, are fuming at the way Dowling suddenly dropped the bomb on them earlier this month.
Last November, Dowling actually opened the fund back up and collected about $250 million from 67 investors, according to public filings.
Dowling did not return calls for comment. It's unclear who Narragansett's investors are but sources said Swiss bank Credit Suisse had invested in the firm through a fund-of-funds.
Dowling cut his teeth as a healthcare investor with Texas investor Richard Rainwater and Thomas Frist of hospital giant HCA. He also worked at Larry Feinberg's Oracle Partners, a private investment firm that placed bets on health care and bioscience companies.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/09282006/business/hedge_loses_edge_business_zachery_kouwe.htm
UPDATE 7-Oil up after BP shuts Alaska crude, cuts pledged
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH0765 2_2006-09-29_19-55-29_SP44592
NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to near $63 a barrel on Friday, after BP Plc shut in output at an oil field in Alaska and OPEC members Nigeria and Venezuela pledged to cut production.
--skip down--
BP has been restoring output at the giant Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska after pipeline corrosion forced the shut in of production at the nation's biggest oil field last month.
The news came after a spokesman for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Venezuela told the producer group it will join fellow member Nigeria in cutting back production.
What I think more explains the end of the session rise was the fact that the 3rd QTR has ended and people were buying into the 4th QTR, where as I've said before, things will be interesting.
Oil fell in early activity but reversed direction after BP said it had shut in 25,000 to 30,000 barrels per day of oil output in Alaska following a natural gas leak at its Lisburne oil field.
Interesting.....all these little accidents and pipeline problems in Alaska and Russia.
They have revised June numbers of crude + condensate down by 243,000 barrels. However the July numbers are up quite dramatically. They are 73,796,000 barrels. That is up 414,000 barrels from the old June numbers but up 657,000 barrels from the new June numbers.
The numbers all the way back to December of 05 have been revised. Some upward, some downward. I haven't looked at the "all liquids" numbers yet. I will post more on this tomorrow after I have had time to digest the numbers and run them through my Excel spreadsheets and see who is up and who is down.
Ron Patterson
All monthly numbers, crude + condensate, December 05 thru June of 06 were revised Downward an average of 243,000 barrels per day per month.
Ron Patterson
Oh, Mama! Whoops!
Earth to optimists, Earth to Optimists, are you there? Get back? Get back...
Wait, is this thing on?
Naaa.......of course not.
And while we're on the subject, does anyone around here still remember the Dot-Com Bubble? Just asking... Not much manipulation of stock prices went on there...
Russia production, Old and Revised in thousands of barrels.
.......old.......Rev.......dif
Dec 9,500...9,240..-260
Jan 9,310...9,030..-280
Feb 9,330...9,040..-290
Mar 9,360...9,150..-210
Apr 9,370...9,170..-200
May 9,390...9,160..-230
Jun 9,450...9,260..-190
Jul................9,260
I'm on the case
2006 (7 month average, world) = 84219/mbpd (all liquids)
2005 (year, world) = 84338/mbpd (all liquids)
I'm not a very smart guy -- as most of you here already know -- but I do know how to subtract.
Ron Patterson
Deffeyes predicted the peak in Crude Oil. He did not pick the peak of ethanol, palm oil, bottled gas or Orimulsion.
Ron Patterson
Ron Patterson
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11c.xls
So, if we throw in the kitchen sink, as the EIA does, we're still down.
Sometimes it makes me want to beat my head against a wall. Sometimes.
At any rate, 06 year to date average is below 05 total year by .119 mb/d for all liquids and .120 mb/d for crude + condensate.
Ron Patterson
If the facts don't fit the agenda - refute. Nicely done.
Note that the initial Texas decline, following the 1972 peak, was only 0.6%. Texas production didn't fall below the 1971 level until 1976.
Also, if my math is correct the EIA estimate of 12/05 to 6/06 Russian oil production was off (on the high side) by about 50 million barrels.
In regard to my prior comments about Russian production, I didn't have any inside knowledge, but I knew that the Russian government did the largest IPO in Russian history in July for Russian oil company Rosneft--which made me wonder about the reported Russian numbers. I also questioned the double digit decline rate in Russian oil exports (7/05 to 7/06) versus recent reports of rising production.
It's healthy to take a break from here, definitely, but also addictive.
Hope he's doing OK and pursuing his analyses even if he is not sharing here at the moment.
Best to you Stuart if you are lurking still.
Link?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
What are you worried about, fat grams?
We have added about 100 million barrels to the SPR since 1990, so the 1.77 Gb number is misleading.
Crude oil inventories--when we had lower levels of consumption--have frequently been higher than our current level. The only really meaningful comparison is on the basis of days consumption.
Also, the historically high spread between light, sweet and heavy, sour crude oil prices suggests that we don't have a lot of excess light, sweet crude. And as I have frequently pointed out, I suspect that building inventories of heavy, sour crude are obscuring flat to declining inventories of light, sweet crude.
My fear is that quite a number of contributors seem to be fooled by randomness (title of a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb), with the result that they cannot always distinguish between a blip and a bombshell.
Blip: The Jack "Discovery"
Bombshell: credible reports that all four of the largest producing oil fields in the world are now declining. The only question is Ghawar. We know the other three are declining or crashing.
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Houston%20Bar%20Association.pdf
It is always good to post the latest and greatest from St. Matthew. I believe the title of this latest presentation was carefully chosen so as to be directly related to St. Matthew's reindeer.
Matt is trying to get the word out that we are basically screwed unless all hands get to work on mitigation. I commend him and his organization for this action. If the MSM was actually doing their job: he would now be getting more press coverage than the threesome of Bush, Putin, and Paris Hilton.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
2/ All "experts" involved in this bleeding, private and fed, deserve to be hung from a bungie cord tied around their balls. It's been a 5-year premeditated extortion scheme, and millions will never recover. Now the facade (the housing market) is coming down, they issue the warning that was due 5 years ago. No use now. As they know very well. Who are they? Look:
The new guidance was issued jointly by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Office of Thrift Supervision and the National Credit Union Administration.
The Big Show: Indentured servitude for millions of former middle-class Americans.
... For the rest of their lives ...
We took and used and the party was great. We will pay the price now and there is no asprin for the hangover.
Marco.
I've been making very public comments about this crew for what, the last 26 years. It's been very depressing watching the Republic die.
I think it is important to consider everything in today's Drumbeat, then refer to the beating of African wardrums and people to help understand our future:"Abuses of Power".
Excerpts:
-----------------------------
Broken bones, head injuries, battered feet, beatings to the point of unconsciousness - these forms of torture were inflicted by Zimbabwean police on 15 Zimbabwean trade union leaders last week (13 September), according to their lawyers and doctors.
The Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, blithely dismissed the abuse as the work of "one or two overzealous" officers, in a rare interview while at the United Nations on Thursday. Significantly he did not say that any police would be punished for the torture.
I have interviewed many survivors including a teenager who survived electric shocks that caused him to bite through his tongue and a policeman whose penis was skinned. These people want to tell their stories so the world will know the atrocities being committed in Zimbabwe.
----------------------------
Reuters reports that Pres. Mugabe says assaulted unionists deserved the beating:
Excerpts:
---------------------------
Mugabe, who is on his way home from the United Nations General Assembly in New York, was quoted by Zimbabwe's official Herald newspaper on Monday as saying from Cairo "the police were right in dealing sternly with the ZCTU leaders".
"Some people are now crying foul that they were assaulted, yes you get a beating. When the police say move, move," he said.
"If you don't move, you invite the police to use force."
Critics say Mugabe has used tough policing, including strict media and security laws, to keep his opponents in check and to stifle criticism.
--------------------------------
"Those Were Unpresidential Remarks, Mr President" by AllAfrica.com:
Excerpts:
---------------------------
The point must be made that there is a vast difference between the constitutional right to express one's opinions on one hand and violence on the other. The ZCTU protest was intended to be a peaceful one. It was never the intention of the marchers to cross the dividing line between peaceful and violent protest. It was not a call to arms but a call to march peacefully in order to highlight in general the poverty, financial hardships, HIV and AIDS and the sense of hopelessness that is currently stalking this land. What was so wrong with that?
Suppressing people's right to merely express themselves with such inexcusable ferocity is unforgivable. Not only was the police action a flagrant violation of international and regional human rights standards and norms, it also represented a total rejection of the terms of the Constitution of Zimbabwe which provides for the right to freedom of expression, association and assembly.
--------------------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Is the world about to run out of oil?
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/sep/30oil.htm
I understand India's primary efforts to develop biofuels is sugar cane based ethanol. India is the world's second largest sugar producer. Sugar has an EROEI of 1:8.5 of more. Most tropical biodiesel seems to run in the range of 1:4 or 1:5.
The only negative EROEI figures I have seen for biofuels is from Pimental's corn ethanol work.
Here are five studies that all cite figures of positive 8-10 EROEI for ethanol from sugar cane and positive but lower figures for other biofuels. I have given page references for three of them.
1) FO Licht presentation to METI,
http://www.meti.go.jp/report/downloadfiles/g30819b40j.pdf
EROEI Calcs: Page 20
2) IEA Automotive Fuels for the Future
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/1990/autofuel99.pdf
3) IEA: Biofuels for Transport
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/biofuels2004.pdf
EROEI calcs: page 60
4) Worldwatch Institute & Government of Germany: Biofuels for Transport (Link to register - study is free)
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4078
EROEI Calcs (for 12 fuel types): Page 17
5) Potential for Biofuels for Transport in Developing Countries
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2006/01/05/000090341_20060105 161036/Rendered/PDF/ESM3120PAPER0Biofuels.pdf