DrumBeat: September 30, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 30, 2006 - 9:15am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Peak Oil And The Problem Of Infrastructure
Most schemes for a post-oil technology are based on the misconception that there will be an infrastructure, similar to that of the present day, which could support such future gadgetry. Modern equipment, however, is dependent on specific methods of manufacture, transportation, maintenance, and repair. In less abstract terms, this means machinery, motorized vehicles, and service depots or shops, all of which are generally run by fossil fuels. In addition, one unconsciously assumes the presence of electricity, which energizes the various communications devices, such as telephones and computers; electricity on such a large scale is only possible with fossil fuels.
The Next Step: Conversion to the Solar Hydrogen Economy
Although the imminent exhaustion of the world’s fossil fuel would certainly propel us to the Solar Hydrogen Economy, we need the fossil fuel to make the transition. Therefore, we need to have some idea as to when it might be exhausted.
Is the world about to run out of oil?
Crystal ball needed to predict oil direction
Peak Oil Passnotes: Oil at a Turning Point
Bangladesh: More attacks on Power offices
Demonstrations by the people demanding uninterrupted power supply continued yesterday in different regions of the country while police filed cases against about 22,100 unidentified persons in the capital for taking part in the violent protests of Wednesday and Thursday.Several hundred residents of Azampur in Uttara of the capital attacked the local office of Dhaka Electric Supply Company (Desco) yesterday afternoon demanding uninterrupted power supply. The mob also vandalised vehicles belonging to Desco.
Official: India's plan to build strategic oil reserves will help offset price volatillity
Scientists develop more powerful nuclear fuel
U.S. researchers have designed a reactor fuel that they believe can make nuclear power plants 50 percent more powerful and safer, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said.Researchers say their new technology should be ready for commercial use in existing reactors in about 10 years.
Backyard wind turbines turn energy consumers into suppliers
Think wind power and you probably imagine multimegawatt-scale wind farms featuring gigantic turbines Âproducing power for a few thousand homes. But a handful of companies in the United States would prefer to have each home powered by its own wind turbine. |  |
$1,000,000,000,000: the cost of capping greenhouse gas emissions
Science and action on climate change diverging: UK
The gap between what countries are doing to address climate change and what scientists say they should be doing is widening, Britain's Environment Minister David Miliband, said on Friday.
Climate demands rapid energy conversion, experts say
Most in U.S. say Congress short-sighted
Americans are very worried about the long-term future of the country, and they don't think Congress is paying attention to big issues on the horizon, like Social Security and global warming, according to a survey released Friday.The survey found 81 percent of respondents were very or somewhat worried about Social Security, and just as many were very or somewhat worried about energy issues. The findings were released by New York University's John Brademas Center for the Study of Congress.
Lower gas prices may help auto sales
When Nelson Ropke recently replaced his Jeep Grand Cherokee sport utility vehicle with a Chrysler Pacifica crossover, gasoline prices were top-of-mind. The Grosse Pointe lawyer is a typical buyer still smarting from post-Katrina $3-per-gallon prices, but some analysts and dealers say they're seeing fewer people like him since pump prices subsided in the later part of September.
An older link, but what the heck, we need a little fun for the weekend: Songs of Energy Crises Past.
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A nostalgia trip for those old enough to remember when tunes like "Cheaper Crude or No More Food" were all the rage, a fascinating glimpse into the '70s for everyone else.
[Update by Leanan on 09/30/06 at 9:21 AM EDT]
OPEC: Nigeria, Venezuela to slash oil production from Sunday
LONDON (AFP) - OPEC members Nigeria and Venezuela will reduce their oil production by a combined 170,000 barrels per day from Sunday, a spokesman for OPEC said.The spokesman told AFP the decisions were made voluntarily by each producer, insisting they were not imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
BP shuts Lisburne field in Alaska on leak
ters) - BP Plc., working to restore Prudhoe Bay crude oil output after a two-month reduction, closed the adjacent Lisburne oil field in Alaska on Thursday due to a methane gas leak, the company said on Friday.Between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) in crude oil output was shut in when BP discovered methane gas filling the Lisburne field processing facility, which processes crude from three fields, said BP spokesman Steve Rinehart.
Ominous parallel here.
Joules, thanks for posting this link. This puts the lie to people who claim that we are not in overshoot and all we have to do is consume less oil and everything will be okay. No, we are deep into overshoot but still having more babies but are at the same time reducing the world's carrying capacity.
I think that hinges on the Indian situation being typical, world-wide. "We" might be in overshoot if "we" are all in the same boat as those Indians, on water, etc.
Any posters from the Canadian Northeast here today, what's your perspective?
No, I think if we had lots of oil, water would not be that big a problem. We could simply build a lot of desalination plants.
Given enough energy, we can solve just about any problem. But when it's energy that is the problem...it's bend over and pass the Vaseline time. (Oops...Vaseline's made of petroleum.)
Why not - the fusion future.
=========It's all about population!
Leanan, this might be true in theory, but it is really ridiculous to propose that we could desalinate enough water to replace the water currently used around the world for irrigation. We would need thousands of desal plants. The Yellow river is used, almost entirely for irrigation and for most of the year it never reaches the sea. Imagine building enough desal plants to replace the water in theYellow River. Or the Colorado River, all the hundreds of rivers and aquifers around the world that are going dry because too much water is being pumped out.
The Soviets diverted the rivers feeding the Aral Sea to grow cotton. Now the Aral Sea is almost dry. Do you suppose that if we had enough oil we could just build enough desal plants and fill it up again? And the same for Lake Chad and all the other lakes and rivers of the world that are drying up because of massive irrigation.
I haven't done the math but I would bet that if we wished to replace all the world's irrigation water with desalinated water, we would need at least one hundred times as much oil as we have now. And imagine what that would do to global warming, burning one hundred times the oil we do now.
Ron Patterson
Try desalinating the Dust Bowl. That should make it clear enough.
Unlimited energy can theoretically solve almost all problems. But one remains: the very use of that energy, and the pollution -or waste- it produces. That could only be solved by using more energy, which would lead to more waste, which could only be solved by using more energy, which... (copy and paste).
Unlimited energy (when used) equals unlimited waste.
River diversion, that very term brings up China. The most megalomanic project in the history of mankind is underway as we speak, digging 1000's of miles of canals and tunnels to divert water from the relatively wet south to the very dry and desertifying north.
Mao started talking about it 50 years ago, and it will take another 50 to complete.
One problem that is not part of the planning process: melting glaciers. By the time the project is finished, 50 years from now, there will be hardly any water left, the southern rivers are fed by the Himalaya's.
It'll be a fitting end for Peak Stupidity.
In a word...yes.
I'm not saying it would be desirable, mind.
Do the math Leanan you might have some surprises.
In other words, though your statement "Given enough energy, we can solve just about any problem" holds in principle, there are HUGE AMOUNTS of "energy equivalent" consumption in many, many natural ressources we squander mindlessly.
Releasing water on the ground to artifically produce wetlands for waterfowl.
Quit draining wetlands for humans to have more sprawl space and pretend they are living the rural lifestyle.
Stop irrigating crop land when normal rainfall is insufficient and live on what we can actually produce, even though this means a lot of the rest of the world must learn to better shepherd their resources as well, in other words quit trying to be the worlds saviour and just live with what we got.
Turn off the 'green revolution'.
Stop washing streets, let the residents sweep them off.
Ice hockey? Forget it.
Swimming pools in everymans backyard? Ignorant.
Sprinkling desert land in Arizona to grow grass? Fools.
Huge water fountains in Vegas? Screw the gamblers. Let them eat dust.
The list can go on and on and on. Just as long as human stupidity can go on and on and on. Live within the parameters or die off. Thats what it is coming down to.
Why does India need all that water? Could all our ignorant offshoring of our once domestic jobs have anything to do with it?
Two years ago this would have been utter nonsense. Today I submit it makes sense. You can't legislate people's lifestyle so nature is going to do take over that job for us.
I strongly disagree on the basis that local conditions are so different. Continents are separated by big swathes of water called oceans which have a tendancy to keep eco-systems, people, cultures, resources apart. I cannot even believe I am debating this.
Sure if you fully understand controll theory as applied to climate/geology and know your boundaries and 879,057,423 variables then yes you could treat earth as one boat.
Marco.
Marco
I've read that the Great Lakes are already approaching their lowest levels since measurements began. And anytime I've gone fishing with my dad we have to take a guide with us to determine if the fish we catch are safe to eat or have too much mercury for human consumption.
So even here, in a province with something like a half million freshwater lakes, it's not like the place is untouched either.
I just worry if a water trade is seriously developed with the US, because as I understand it according to Article 6 of NAFTA it would then become a trading commodity that we could not legally unilaterally stop selling you. Sort of like the situation we're in where we have to sell you our natural gas.
In any case, even with all this water, is the world supposed to all move to Canada???
The generalization builds the fear ... but does it build the action?
BTW, I'll take my shower this morning with a low flow head, I sure hope everyone mad at me here is doing the same:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/10/eco-showerhead.php
No, I know what you're saying, but if the question is potable fresh water, then certainly contamination factors into the equation as well. There's plenty of fresh water in standing pools around the tar sands too, but I sure as hell wouldn't drink it!
I am now visualizing millions of people addicted to the gratification of sticking lowflow heads up their asses. Please don't do that.
Electricity for that gentleman to run his water pump, and for industrial ag. in general, comes from coal-fired power plants. And where do those fishes get their mercury contamination? The steady rain, planet-wide, of mercury from those same power plants.
I noticed yesterday, in the news, that India's economy is growing at an astounding rate.
Separating 'challenges' into many discrete parts may lead to an overwhelming seeming number of challenges facing us - no? We all see the world differently, but for me, it's pretty simple that we're over-consuming, over-populating, and lack humility.
Scaling back (aka powerdown, simplification, whatever) will solve many problems simultaneously. Many tech fixes of individual problems just cause two more problems somewhere else.
Go Humans!!
I mean, would Cuba have the same post-oil message if it were exactly the same as India?
Actually, does anyone know what fraction of the population relies on non-replenished water sources?
One hundred times the replacement rate! And that is right here in the United States of America. As I said Odograph, you simply do not get the message. The whole damn world has a very serious water problem.
Ron Patterson
Otherwise, the resource would be gone immediately.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1310/is_1985_Jan/ai_3581835
I think the Ogalalla is a fossil aquifer so it is not replenishing. Once that water is gone, it's gone. But many of the replenishable aquifers world-wide are being depleted faster than they can replenish, hence declining water tables, deeper wells, etc. And I wonder, when Odograph says we are not in the same boat as India, how he defines the boat. True, we in the U.S. don't currently face the same water issues as India, but we're not too far off. And we here in the Northeast don't face the same water issues as LA and San Diego. So, are we in the same boat in the U.S., the western hemisphere, or the world? Odograph needs to read Lester Brown's Outgrowing the Earth or Plan B 2.0 to see how far-reaching our water issues are before deciding who is in what boat.
Kinda leaves me wondering why people say I'll never get it and etc.
I've even acknowledged that if much of our use is coming from such fossil sources we are in big trouble.
"The Ogallala fossil water aquifer in the Central Plains is being depleted by agricultural and urban extraction, with no effective recharge"
pg 17, (pdf warning) Water, Energy and Security, EESI Congressional Briefing, U.S. Department of Energy
Sorry to be pedantic on this fine Saturday.
But there I going being pedantic again .... I must chastise myself some more!
(we actually do have a lot of agreement here)
http://www.bookrags.com/research/aquifer-depletion-enve-01/
Darn it, must stop ...
Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer
Nebraska Sandhills conceal massive aquifer
"I think the Ogalalla is a fossil aquifer so it is not replenishing. "
I read somewhere that some places where the aquifer has been pumped to exhaution, the ground level actually dropped(compressed) measureable amounts(was it vegas?). Once the ground water was pumped out, the spaces collapsed/compressed and the article said it was not reversible.
No, the Ogallala aquifier is quite shallow and does replenish, though not nearley as fast as irrigation water is being pumped from it. As the article points out, some of the water dates back to the last ice age. Yet it does replenish. But you are quite correct, when it is pumped dry, all the crops irrigated from it will be no more. But that is the case all over the world. That is called overshoot.
Ron Patterson
It is truly amazing the places we indulge denial.
=======It's all about population!
Odograph, it is way, way past the time that you, and others with similar cornucopian opinions, should wake up and smell the coffee. Water tables are dropping all over the world. You must live a sheltered life and never read a newspaper or watch the news to believe that there is not a worldwide water problem. And to imply that because the Canadian Northeast does not have the same problem that the vast majority of the rest of the world has, is just dumb, dumb, dumb!
Our assistance And just what the hell do you propose that we do. Ship water to India? Then we could ship water to Bangladesh, and China, and Pakistan, and the rest of the world where the vast majority of the world's people live. Get real, the problem is too damn many people trying to draw far too much water from the world's rivers and underground water supply. There is not one damn thing we can do except watch them die.
Funny you should mention Cuba. That just shows how far out of touch you are with reality. Cuba is now having a drastic food shortage and a critical water shortage. That link is from this month. And this one goes back two years. The water and food shortage in Cuba goes back many years.
And as for the worldwide problem, I could post several thousand links going back for a couple of decades. The deserts are expanding all over the world, rivers and lakes are drying up and everywhere in the world, even in the United States, water tables are dropping, usually several meters per year.
And you think this is only a problem for India? Where on earth have you been for the last thirty years?
WE, the whole damn world, are deep into overshoot. Only a man who is totally out of touch with reality could possibly deny that.
Ron Patterson
Worldwide water shortage
Water Shortage Will Leave World in Dire Straits
Global Water Shortage Looms In New Century
And I could post thousands more explaining that the whole damn world is suffering from a water shortage.
Look, as I said I do get the problem with using fossil water sources. I understand that if someone drills down to ancient rainfall, and it is not being replenished by current rain or snowfall, it is a finite resource, just like oil Very much like oil.
So sure, around the world, well fileds will deplete.
The big question is what fraction of world water demand is being met by fossil water. If that number is known, and it is big, I'll have to concede.
At this point in time, I would say that greed is a greater problem than population as it creates and continues the inequities leading to population growth. And since greed at bottom is immoral and the USE is the greed leader, it is ever more the leader in immorality, even without its wars.
Marco.
In times of drought, elephants and other species trek 100's of miles from the Serengeti and Great Rift Valley towards the "wet" land beneath the mountain, their final option.
The snow peak is not the only tourist attraction that will soon be gone. The animals will have no place left to go.
Also, Africa these days is full of stories of lakes that are drying up at record pace. This doesn't just affect drinking water, it cuts of electricity to scores of people as well.
Now we might presume that since there is a water cycle, what goes missing in one place, will end up somewhere else. But that is not entirely correct. Why?
Ask yourself what makes the sea levels rise.
Stable glaciers obviously were not providing water, though they play an important role in regulating the flow of snow melt. New ways will have to be found and/or implemented to capture irregular fresh water flows. Not many grey cells will be consumed in this process.
Even with the stress of 6 - 9 billion people, the stress of climate change and the stress of emerging problems like adaptive germs, our fundamental problems are mental. The solutions are an exercise of the divine gift of self-reflective consciousness.
His "challenges" only amount to denial, blatant lies and weaseling, plus a lot of plain noise like pancakes and sausage.
Did you read the link I already made above?
Where he PRETENDS that I have argued :
We're all gonna die, because a can of soda needs 3.6 cents worth of aluminum!!!
Where I fact I said the OPPOSITE, that the cost of aluminium does not matter for soda cans because it is negligible.
Could you substanciate this claim of yours that he is "open to change his views", he is NOT!
Hopefully you can too :)
Because they are so dire I would LOVE to change my views but I am not buying snake oil, propaganda or any other bullshit.
You like to present yourself as someone connected to science, but reaching conclusions and preaching doom without evidence belies this self-presentation.